Statistical Process Control

Statistical Process Control (SPC) can be defined as:

a collection of methods for controlling the quality of a product by collecting and interpreting data to determine the capability and current performance of a process.

SPC methods make a distinction between what is called common cause variation and special cause variation. Common cause variation (sometimes called inherent variation) is always present. It normally arises from several sources, each of which usually makes a relatively small contribution. Common cause is typically quantified using measures such as the sample standard deviation s or the range R. Reduction of common cause variation requires fundamental changes in an operation, requiring management authorization (i.e. fine tuning will have little effect).

SPC - Terminology
Processes exhibiting only common cause variation are said to be in statistical control, even if they may not be meeting specifications. Such processes are stable, and hence predictable (within appropriate limits identified by confidence intervals). The magnitude of common cause variation determines the system capability. In contrast, special cause variation is sporadic, often upsetting a process when it occurs. Special cause variation can be distinguished from common cause variation by the size or pattern of change that occurs in process behaviour. Detection of special cause variation is often subjective, with guidance from objective techniques. Special cause variation is abnormal variation, and it may be harmful or beneficial.

SPC - Process Improvement

Detecting and acting upon special cause variation is a responsibility of everyone in an organization, from operators to management. Systems exhibiting special cause variation which is not acted upon are not in statistical control. System capability has no meaning for such systems (i.e. it is important to ensure that a process is stable before evaluating its capability). Process Improvement comes about through the identification of special cause variation and then its deliberate elimination or persistence.

Controlled Variable Controlled Variable Controlled Variable

Suggests something Features of Control changed . has Charts SPC (Shewhart) Acts as(Shewhart) Chart SPC a warning SPC (Shewhart) Chart for production Is the process personnel 7 77 operating Variable Being 6 normally?Upper Confidence Limit 66 Atypical Operating Region Monitored
5 55 4 44 3 33 2 22 1 11 0 00

SPC (Shewhart) Chart

Normal Operating Region

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Controlled Variable

Target Atypical Lower Confidence Limit Operating Region

29 29 11 11 11 13 13 15 15 17 17 19 19 21 21 23 23 25 25 27 27

1 1 1 3 3 3 5 5 5 7 7 7 9 9 9

Time

Time Time Time

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Shewhart Chart on Individual Measurements

Plot each new individual measurement xi on a chart with center line equal to the target or long term mean and control limits at 3x
Example: In manufacturing a polymer the viscosity (xi) of a sample of polymer collected from the process is measured in the quality control lab every hour.

How to determine x?
x is the variance of the common cause disturbances in the process
It should be estimated using data from the process when it is deemed to be operating in an acceptable manner with only common cause variation present.

Why put limits at 3x ?

Corresponds to = .0027 (99.73% confidence interval)

Statistical Process Control Shewhart Charts

Shewhart at Bell Labs in 1920s Suggested plotting quality data on control charts 3 sigma control limits based on common cause variability (ie. when process is working normally)
0 0 3

0 o

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

X or

Any violation is a special event to be investigated By detecting & correcting process long term improvement

Shewhart Charts on Averages X Charts

Often parts are made very rapidly e.g. injection molded plastic parts
it is not possible to measure the quality (e.g. a dimension) on every part

Take a random sample of n parts from every hours production

Plot Shewhart Chart on the average about the grand average X

with limits 3sx/n centered

sx is estimated from the pooled variation of the replicates at each hour

Plot a chart on the standard deviation sx estimated from the replicates Provides a means to monitor both changes in the process mean and also changes in the variance X s chart
x

Charts to Monitor Process Variability

An Example - Mould Level Control at #1 Caster

Var y=0.47

Var y=2.2382

S Charts - Control Limits

The control limits can be obtained using the 100 (1-) % confidence intervals for x2
s2 2 , , / 2

s2 2,1 / 2

Even though s is not normally distributed, both the lower and upper control limits are sometimes set as 3 (standard deviation of s ) = s 3
1 c2 4 s c4

where c4 is chosen to correspond to an approx. 100 (1-) % limit (tables)

s2 can be calculated over time windows or on various rational subgoups (e.g. random sample of parts produced every hour on each machine).

Range Charts
Often the Range R = (xmax-xmin) from each sample of n parts is used instead of sx to monitor the process variation
This is due to computers not being available years ago and has continued because of tradition Tables are available for setting the upper and lower control limits for R charts _ X R charts are common combinations in parts manufacturing

X-bar Chart

(Shewhart Chart using means of samples) To build a control chart is to determine values for the three lines on the chart
Centre line Upper control limit Lower control limit

The centre line value for an X-bar chart may be

the target value for the performance characteristic of interest
or

the overall sample mean of

values from recent samples

of the measured characteristic, where

X=

Total of X values for all samples number of samples

X-bar Charts - Control Limits

Upper and lower control limits for an X-bar chart are determined from the pdf of the individual sample means , which is N(,2/n), where denotes the population standard deviation of individual X measurements under common cause variation and n denotes the size of each sample Essentially, the limits represent 100(1-)% confidence interval for the mean. The UCL and LCL are determined from the following.

X z / 2 x = X z / 2

x
n

x =

x
n

X-bar Charts - Control Limits

Of course, we generally dont know the true value of the variance and we have to use an estimate in its place. In this case, the confidence limits (and consequently, the control limits) are determined using the t distribution instead of the normal distribution. We can estimate the variance of the mean values as follows.

s = sX =

Total of s values for all individual samples Number of samples

DOF==k(n-1) Then we compute the control limits as:

X t . / 2s x = X t . / 2 sx n

Western Electric Rules

A set of supplementary guidelines to improve the sensitivity of X-bar charts. The following is an incomplete set of the rules:
2 out of 3 consecutive values of X-bar on the same side of the centre line and more than 2 standard deviations from the centre line 4 out of 5 consecutive values of X-bar on the same side of the centre line and more than 1 standard deviation from the centre line 8 consecutive points are the same side of the centre line 7 or more consecutive values is a consistently rising or falling pattern a recurring cyclic pattern abnormal clustering close to the centre line (signals a decrease in variation in the process) clustering of values close to both control limits (suggests X-bar is following two distributions instead of one).

Note: These rules need to be applied with caution they are really only reasonable if the observations are uncorrelated over time (this usually is not the case in the process industries - more common in parts manufacture Control limits need to be reviewed periodically!

CUSUM Chart

Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) Chart A Cumulative Sum Chart, developed by E. S. Page, monitors Si, the cumulative sum (cusum) of departures of sample mean values of measurements x, up to and including sample i , from their target value.
Si = ( X j T arg et )
j=1 i

This definition of Si includes the case of samples of size 1. Note that each value Si includes all of the data collected up to that point, in contrast to the previous control charts in which only the current sample value is used as a basis for decision.
A change in mean of the process will show up as a change in slope of the CUSUM chart (i.e. Si continues to integrate (sum) the change as long as the change persists)

Time Series Plot of Mileage

Mileage
48 47 46 45 44 43 42 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Day 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Mileage

CUSUM Plot

Mileage
5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5

CUSUM

9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Day

Summary
SPC charts are used to monitor a process and detect when special events arise.
Chart to monitor the mean value of quality variables
Shewhart Chart on individual observations or on the mean value over some period of operation CUSUM chart (Other more specialized charts also exist)

Chart to monitor process variability s or R chart

The idea is to have operators/engineers follow through on alarms to determine an assignable cause, and then try to modify procedures, etc. so that these do not occur again. This will lead to continuous improvement over time
Spectacular successes Japanese auto and electronics industries

Pareto Charts (ordering faults by frequency)

Montgomery D.C & Runger G.C. (2007), p.693, fig 16-24

First five defects all related to soldering

Fishbone (Cause & Effect) Charts

Montgomery D.C & Runger G.C. (2007), p.694, fig 16-25

Useful to summarize process Shows potential causes of defects in products and interrelationships

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Process Capability
In SPC, we specify control limits based on the performance of the process. In Process capability, the Specification Limits are established by the customer Process Capability Indexes

USL X X LSL C pk = Min , 3 3

We want Cpk to be greater than 1. Most industies want Cpk to be greater than 1.33 (basis for choosing supplier, process is said to be capable). A value of 2.0 corresponds to 6 Another variation for when the limits are symmetrical about the mean is

Cp =

USL LSL 6

Process Capability Ratio (PCR): PCR>1

Montgomery D.C & Runger G.C. (2007), p.671, fig 16-14a

Process natural tolerance limits lie inside specifications Very few defective units produced

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Process Capability Ratio (PCR): PCR=1

Montgomery D.C & Runger G.C. (2007), p.671, fig 16-14b

Small number of nonconforming units 0.27% for normal process

Process Capability Ratio (PCR): PCR<1

Montgomery D.C & Runger G.C. (2007), p.671, fig 16-14c

Process very yield sensitive Large number of nonconforming units produced

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Six-Sigma Statistical concept

Idea in parts manufacturing is to aim at achieving 6-sigma capability I.e. Achieve a process with Cpk = 2.0 In that way if the process were at target there would be 0.0018 PPM defective. But process is rarely exactly at target. Allowing for a deviation in the process mean of 1.5 from target, then still have 4.5 margin. This corresponds to 3.4 PPM defective (a goal).

Six-Sigma Process Six-

Montgomery D.C & Runger G.C. (2007), p.671, fig 16-15

Mean of six-sigma process shifts by 1.5 standard deviations Still 4.5 from the Spec limit 3.4 defects per million parts

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Six Sigma Quality Improvement Programs

The Six Sigma term has been adopted as a title for current management quality improvement programs
Allied Chemical (Honeywell) and Motorola started it, GE popularized it.

Original concept is good

Project driven
Define and carry out quality improvement projects Use any data analysis tools appropriate (training in basic methods) Successful completion: Green belt Black belt

As with all corporate management programs, it has become jargon filled and the approaches more rigorously defined:
Define: Objectives & critical to quality (CTQ) variables Measure: Measurements of CTQ variables, DOEs in CTQs Analyze: Analysis of the data Improve: Optimize/improve the process using knowledge gained Control: Maintain gains through control charts, etc.

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