Market Insights

Headlines

16 June 2011

Global markets sent lower as Greek uncertainty sends Euro plunging Poor manufacturing and industrial production numbers from US also hits sentiment Euro falls more than 300 pips as one million people clash in Athens protests RBA provides early boost, but global gloom sees AUD fall 150 pips Commodities also lost ground, with oil rejecting 100, but gold creeps higher Equities saw a bloodbath, with the FSTE down 1.0%, the Dow falling 1.5% and the Nasdaq losing 1.8%

AUD/USD
Resistance 1.0720 Support 1.0520 Market Sentiment

Bullish (But wary of a break) The AUD popped higher after the RBA governor said yesterday that monetary policy needed to be tightened. However, the overnight shift in sentiment saw risk currencies sold lower and the Aussie fell around 150 pips. This has found the Aussie back at support at 1.0520. Traders now expect a move back higher from support, but a break below 1.0520 is bearish.

XAU/USD
Resistance 1535 Support 1510/15 Market Sentiment

Bearish Gold saw a choppy session as the fear trade caused investors to head to the safety of gold. That said, the precious metal is still displaying a more bearish tendency, and traders will be looking to take new shorts near 1535 in the expectation of a move back to the lower end of the trading band at 1510/15.

EUR/USD
Resistance 1.4320 Support 1.4150 Market Sentiment

Bearish The Euro was sold sharply lower overnight as political unrest in Greece grew. The pair broke below support at 1.4320 and this set up a move back to 1.4150. From here, the markets focus remains on the sell side, with any move back towards 1.4320, or a break below 1.4150, seen as the best opportunity for new shorts.

GBP/USD
Resistance 1.6300 Support 1.6150/200 Market Sentiment

Bullish The pound fell back to the bottom end of the range overnight and found support broadly at this level. From here, while the picture globally is bearish, we could expect to see the GBP stage a recovery if these support levels, between 1.6150 and 1.6200, hold steady. If so, a move back to 1.6300 seems a possibility.

USD/JPY
Resistance 81.10 Support 80.70 Market Sentiment

Bullish USD/JPY continued in its short term uptrend overnight as the global gloom boosted the greenback. From here, traders will be waiting for a break above 81.10 in order to take new longs.

SILVER
Resistance 36.00 Support 35.20 Market Sentiment

Bearish Silver saw some small gains overnight as the flight to safety trade encouraged investors to move back into the white metal. This move had brought silver back to resistance at 36.00 and traders are unlikely to feel bullish until we see a clear break of 36.00. Any move lower is likely to find support at 35.20 and then 34.40

USD/CHF
Resistance 85.50 Support 84.70 Market Sentiment

Bearish The Swiss Franc has been the worlds strongest performing currency against the USD this year, but most recently we have seen the greenback stage a comeback. This comeback, however, has brought the pair up to a key resistance level, and we could see the sellers emerge at these levels. Any move lower is likely to find support at 84.70 and then 83.30.

GBP/JPY
Resistance 132.30 Support 130.70 Market Sentiment

Bullish The GBP/JPY has the potential to break its recent downtrend after pushing above 132.00 and then forming a higher low over the last 24 hours. A clear break above 132.20 will shift the tone of the market. In the near term, traders are looking to ride the short term move higher with support seen at 130.70. A break of this level will be bearish.

AUD/JPY
Resistance 86.50 Support 84.50 Market Sentiment

Bearish

Bearish

The AUD/JPY got bacl to the top of the bearish descending triangle and has now reversed from those levels. From here, the market expects the pair to head back to the lower end of the range at 84.50. A break of this level is very bearish.

OIL
Resistance 96.20 Support 94.00 Market Sentiment

Bearish Oil experienced a roller-coaster evening after weaker US economic data caused analysts to worry about the possibility of a double dip recession. Oil dropped close to 6.00 overnight, but found some support at 94.00. In the near term, traders are waiting for a move back to 96.20 before taking new shorts.

Economic Calendar & Pivot Points

F/Cast
CHF: CHF: CHF: GBP: EUR: Libor Rate SNB Monetary Policy CNB Press Conference Retail Sales CPI y/y 0.25%

Last
0.25% EUR: Core CPI y/y EUR: Employment Change USD: Building Permits USD: Unemployment Claims USD: PhillyFed Manufact Index

F/Cast
1.6% 0.2% 0.55M 421K 7.1

Last
1.6% 0.2% 0.56M 427K 3.9

-0.5% 2.7%

1.1% 2.7%

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