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TOURISM TALK

tourism talk
A summary of the most important data and statistics relevant to the local tourism industry.

Contents:
1. South African Foreign Tourism - 2001 Scrutinised 2. Domestic Tourism - The Latest Trends SOUTH AFRICAN FOREIGN TOURISM 2001 SCRUTINISED South Africa received about 5,7 million visitors between January and December 2001 - 1,4 million from overseas and 4,2 million from Africa. When compared with the year 2000, total overseas visitor numbers were down by 3,7% and African visitor numbers were down by 2,2%. Overseas Tourism Although some of the minor overseas source markets (Australia, Middle East and Indian Ocean islands) achieved some growth,with the exception of the Netherlands, all European markets (South Africas major overseas source markets) declined for the total year 2001. 2001 is the first year since 1986 that South Africa has recorded a decline in total overseas arrivals. At first glance this paints a very gloomy picture of overseas tourism to South Africa. However, given the extreme fluctuations in worldwide tourism post-11 September 2001, it is necessary to take both a pre- and post-11 September view when analysing the 2001 figures.

increase in visitor numbers from Australia, the Middle East, Central and South America, the Indian Ocean islands and Asia. Although encouraging, these source markets generate low tourist numbers for South Africa. However, of significance is the increase in tourists from the Netherlands (+4,8%), the USA (+2,3%), Italy (+2,5%), the UK (+0,4%) and Canada (+0,1%). If not for September 11, South Africa could have experienced reasonable (albeit not significant) growth in overseas tourism for 2001.

Overseas Tourism at a Glance - January to August Figures


Source: Statistics South Africa

Country of Origin All Overseas UK Germany France Italy Netherlands Europe (other) USA Canada Central and South America Australia Middle East Asia Indian Ocean Islands

% Change 2001/2000 0.4% 0.4% -0.1% -6.9% 2.5% 4.8% -7.1% 2.3% 0.1% 4.8% 8.6% 8.7% 4.2% 4.7%

Overseas Tourism at a Glance - January - December Figures


Country of Origin 11 (January to August 2001), there was a significant % Change 2001/2000 Pre-September All Overseas UK Germany France Italy Netherlands Europe (other) USA Canada Central and South America Australia Middle East Asia Indian Ocean Islands
Source: Statistics South Africa

-3.7% -0.7% -5.2% -9.2% -5.8% 3.0% -9.2% -4.2% -3.0% -6.5% 4.5% 1.3% -3.7% 3.5%

Post-September 11 (September to December 2001), there was a dramatic decline in overseas visitor numbers from all major source markets. Although the dramatic decline in the tourist numbers in the immediate aftermath of September 11 was expected, by November we were clawing our way back, with an overseas arrival decline of only 2% after a whopping decline in October of 13,4%. The improvement in November was corroborated by the talk in the industry - business was good, and although the USA and Far East tourists were less, European tourists were in strong evidence. The

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industry consensus was (and is), that for South Africa, September 11 had a silver lining - we are being perceived as a safe destination, coupled with being inexpensive and having improved capacity on inbound flights. Sources in the industry indicated a bumper December 2001 season and continued good forward bookings for January and February 2002 (for instance Tourvest stated that December 2001 was its best month ever). However, official overseas arrival figures were down 23% in December 2001 compared to December 2000.

some cases a significant increase, i.e. Botswana and Zambia) in visitor numbers from other countries in the SADC region. There was also an increase in visitor numbers from Nigeria (35,7%) and Kenya (2,4%). DOMESTIC TOURISM - THE LATEST TRENDS A New Survey The latest survey by South African Tourism and DEAT on the South African domestic tourism market (the survey) included a national sample size of 9 527 respondents - the largest survey ever undertaken of the South African domestic tourism market. The survey details the day and overnight trips undertaken by the domestic market during May 2000 to April 2001 (one year). Some of the trends emanating from this survey are detailed below. Total Domestic Market Size The survey found that approximately 34 million overnight trips

Overseas Tourism at a Glance - September to December Figures


Source: Statistics South Africa

Country of Origin All Overseas UK Germany France Italy Netherlands Europe (other) USA Canada Central and South America Australia Middle East Asia Indian Ocean Islands

% Change 2001/2000 -10.5% -2.5% -11.8% -13.3% -23.5% 0.8% -12.6% -19.0% -8.7% -30.3% -2.6% -14.1% -18.3% 1.2%

African Tourism at a Glance - January to December Figures


Country of Origin Botswana Lesotho Malawi Mozambique Namibia Zambia Zimbabwe Other % Change 2001/2000 -2.5% -17.9% 9.0% 1.2% -1.6% 23.4% 4.4% 2.1%

The disparity between the official figures and the industry barometer is glaring; however, at the time of writing this article, the jury was still out as to possible reasons for this disparity. Perhaps the January 2002 figures will shed some light. Had the December arrival figures followed on the November trend, and also corroborated the perceived situation in the industry, South Africa may have shown a net no change picture for overseas arrivals in 2001 or even a slight growth on 2000. African Tourism Although the overall tourist numbers from Africa showed a decline in 2001, in reality the tourist numbers from only two countries, Lesotho and Namibia, declined. However, due to the large share held by both these source markets of the total African tourists to South Africa, it results in a decline in overall numbers. There was an increase (and in

(includes all types of trips, i.e. leisure, business, visiting friends and relatives, health, religion, etc) and about 55 million day trips were undertaken during the period May 2000 to April 2001. According to the report, this should be regarded as a conservative estimate. The South African Domestic Tourism Survey conducted in 1996 indicated that domestic tourists took 30.4 million overnight leisure trips and a further 4 million overnight business trips in 1996. Due to a variation in research methodology, care should be taken when comparing the 2001 and 1996 studies. Destinations Visited Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal receive the highest number of domestic tourists in the country.

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Percentage Share of Domestic Tourist Trips (2001) Visiting friends and relatives, health and religion as a motive for The Western Cape is mainly visited by tourists from the higher LSM groups. KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape are popular with

Destinations % Total Holiday VFR Eastern Cape Free State Gauteng KwaZulu-Natal Mpumalanga Northern Cape Northern Province 14.3 4.5 12.5 23.6 6.5 2.8 9.2 3.8 22.8

Business Health 14.0 7.7 21.9 18.2 5.1 2.6 11.1 9.2 10.1 6.1 8.3 28.4 15.0 6.6 5.8 6.8 6.2 16.8 4.0 11.4 22.0 26.5 2.4 3.9 11.0 8.3 10.6

Religious Share 8.8 4.8 19.0 14.7 7.3 1.9 28.7 9.9 4.9 12.8 6.7 19.6 19.0 5.7 2.7 12.9 7.9 12.5

Source: South African Domestic Tourism Survey 2001

the lower LSM groups, while travel by the middle LSM groups is relatively evenly spread throughout the country. Destination by LSM Group
Source: South African Domestic Tourism Survey 2001

North West Western Cape

Source: South African Domestic Tourism Survey 2001 and Grant Thornton Kessel Feinstein Calculation

Main Purpose of a Visit trips exceeds leisure travel for the lower and middle LSM groups. Leisure and business trips are predominantly undertaken by the higher LSM groups.

Purpose of Domestic Trips by LSM Super Group

The main purpose of more than half (59%) of domestic trips was to visit friends and relatives. A further 21% undertook trips for holiday and leisure related purposes, 14% for religious purposes, 4% for business purposes and 2% for health treatment purposes. Gauteng, the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal are the most popular provinces for domestic business trips, while KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape are the most popular provinces for holiday trips. Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape are popular with domestic tourists visiting friends and relatives.

Percentage Breakdown of Trips by Province and Purpose of Visits

Origin of South Africas Domestic Tourists

Source: South African Domestic Tourism Survey 2001

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Gauteng and the Western Cape Province are the main source markets for domestic tourists and together account for 50% of South Africas domestic tourism. 68% of all domestic tourists are from the higher LSM groups (6 to 8). The higher disposable income of this group provides them with greater opportunity to travel. Only 5% of LSM groups 1 to 2 travel domestically. When analysing the main domestic source markets for each province it is apparent that domestic tourists in South Africa travel mainly within their own province, with 20%-54% of overnight domestic trips in respective provinces originating from these provinces themselves. Expenditure The average expenditure per capita for all types of overnight trips in South Africa is R437,of which R182 (42%) was spent on transport,R97 (22%) on accommodation and,R105 (24%) on food,R34 (8%) on entertainment and R20 (5%) on gifts. The relatively low proportion of accommodation as a percentage of total trip expenditure is due to the high percentage of domestic trips that are for the purposes of visiting friends and relatives.The accommodation percentage is normally higher for the high LSM groups than the middle and low LSM groups who are more likely to stay with friends and relatives. The Western Cape has the highest average expenditure per domestic tourist trip of all the provinces.This correlates with the large share of domestic tourists to the Western Cape in the high LSM groups.

Destination % GT GT WC KZN MP EC NP NW FS NC 40.6 15.3 23.1 27.8 12.5 26.1 24.3 19.6 18.7 % WC 8.1 54.4 4.2 1.9 15.8 1.1 1.5 5.3 21.0 % KZN 8.4 6.7 47.5 4.2 10.4 1.4 4.9 5.0 2.7

Origin of Domestic Tourists % % MP 8.3 2.1 4.5 38.9 1.4 5.9 3.5 1.5 2.2 % EC 5.2 9.8 10.7 2.5 54.0 2.0 4.7 6.2 2.0 % NP 12.3 2.3 3.9 17.1 1.1 53.7 8.3 2.8 7.8 % NW 10.3 2.3 2.6 5.4 1.4 7.3 46.9 6.9 18.7 % FS 5.9 2.8 3.1 1.8 3.0 2.0 4.0 50.1 7.4 % NC 0.8 4.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.9 2.6 19.5

Source: South African Domestic Tourism Survey 2001

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Weighted Average Expenditure Per Capita Per Trip (Rand)

Source: South African Domestic Tourism Survey 2001

One Day Excursions The survey includes an investigation into day trips on a national and provincial level. 12 million adults had undertaken one-day trips during the 1-year period. Based on the number of adults taking different frequencies of trips per year (from 1 to more than 10) we estimate that the total number of day trips taken in South Africa over the one year period was around 55 to 57 million. Day-trippers are mainly in the Eastern Cape (22%) and Gauteng (20%). The highest frequency of domestic day trips was in Central Gauteng, the Wild Coast-Transkei-Ciskei region and the Cape Metropole. 10% of all one day travellers fall within the LSM 1 to 2 categories, 56% fall within the middle LSM category (3 to 5), and 34% fall within the LSM category (6 to 8).

STOP PRESS Foreign Tourism On 11 April, Statistics South Africa released January 2002 foreign arrival statistics. Included in this release were restated foreign arrival statistics for December 2001. Unfortunately these restated statistics do not include a breakdown of foreign tourists by country of origin. Therefore we cannot differentiate between overseas and African foreign visitors. Statistics South Africa have promised that the detailed restated foreign arrival statistics for December 2001 will be available in June. The updated statistics paint a not-so-gloomy picture for foreign tourism in December. In fact, instead of an overall decline in foreign tourist arrivals of 12% in December 2001 when compared to December 2000,the restated statistics indicate that foreign tourism declined by less than 1%.These updated statistics are more in line with what one would expect in the aftermath of 11 September - a slow crawl back to increasing demand as more and more travellers become confident to travel again. The restated statistics indicated that overall for 2001, South Africa experienced a decline in foreign tourism numbers of 1,4%. Certainly better than the 2,6% decline anticipated after the release of the now defunct December statistics. On a more cheerful note,the January 2002 statistics tend to reflect the positive sentiment emanating from the industry (or the industry barometer referred to in this edition of Tourism Talk). Foreign tourism was up some 3,7% in total over January 2001 - with overseas tourism increasing by some 4,8% and arrivals from Africa by 3,3%. As can be expected significant growth was recorded from key European markets, viz Germany and United Kingdom. Surprisingly a decline in demand was recorded from France and Italy. Not surprisingly, however, demand from the United States, Canada and Central and South America was down from January 2001. Overall, the picture for 2002 is certainly improving and we hope that the positive trends recorded in January carry forward for the rest of the year.

December 2001 and January 2002 Arrival Statistics


Country of Origin All Overseas UK Germany France Italy Netherlands Europe (other) USA Canada Central and South America Australia Middle East Asia Indian Ocean Islands % Change 2001/2000 4.8% 14.6% 14.7% -3.7% -8.5% 4.1% 14.3% -5.8% -8.0% -37.5% -2.0% 1.1% -8.7% 17.2%

Source: South African Domestic Tourism Survey 2001

LSM This refers to the Living Standards Measure, an instrument that attempts to measure the standard of living of an individual taking into account factors such as ownership of quantifiable objects like a fridge or washing machine, and shopping habits, i.e. whether or not the individual does shopping at large supermarkets, etc.

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