Daily Market Technicals

FX Outlook

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Thursday, 23 June 2011

EUR/USD look for market to turn lower

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily EUR/USD Chart
Comment: EUR/USD appears to be turning at 1.4442. This is encouraging for our negative bias as it is turning ahead of the 61.8% retracement of the last leg lower (at 1.4460) and ahead of cloud resistance (at 1.4406 today). We maintain that corrections are likely to be short lived and look for a slide back to the support line at 1.4102. We are unable to rule out an extension into the 1.4500/1.4617 zone, but we look for this to cap the market (6 week downtrend). Key resistance remains 1.4732, the 78.6% retracement. Our outlook remains short to medium term negative below there Directly below the market we have the 200 week ma at 1.4014, the 1.3968 recent low and the 200 day ma at 1.3848. A close below this zone of support would be extremely negative and target the 1.3530/90 region (55 week ma and the 2010-2011 uptrend) as a minimum. Todays trade: Short 1.4500, stops 1.4500. Cover 1.4015. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Risk shifted to downside, target 1.4010. Medium term (1-3 months): To remain below the 1.50/1.5145 region.
Support 1.4200/1.4190 1.4130 1.4102* 1.4048 1.4021* Reason Minor Fibo Minor Fibo Support line 16th May low th 28 Mar low Resistance 1.4442 1.4460 1.4500* 1.4520 1.4569 Reason Minor Fibo 14 June high Early April high 61.8% Fibonacci

Current Price: 1.4305

Resistance line at 1.4617

Support line at 1.4102

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Thursday, 23 June 2011

USD/CHF Support .8350/27 holding

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily USD/CHF Chart
Comment: USD/CHF has spiked down to .8340 and recovered, we continue to suspect it is trying to base. It has tough near term resistance at .8547/54 (early May low and the 31st of May high) and again at .8625, the channel these must be overcome for a recovery to become viable. Below .8327 will trigger a slide to .8222/00. This is the location of TD support (Tom de Mark support) and point and figure target. Both imply that this is now the end stage of the downmove. We note the divergence of the daily RSI and this does depict a loss of downside momentum, but are unable to rule out one more stab on the downside. Todays trade: Long .8440, add on dips to .8340 and place stops below 8325. Cover .8625. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): .8351 target has been reached, reversal expected. Medium term (1-3 months): Target at .8400-.8351 has been met, look for signs of stabilisation, below here targets .8200/.8143.
Support .8350** .8340 .8327** .8222 .8200 Reason 8Y channel line Recent low TD support P&F target Resistance .8457, .8554* .8638** .8708* .8852** .8895 Reason Early May low Downtrend chan. 55 dma March low th 24 May high

Current Price: 0.8424

Resistance lies at .8625

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Thursday, 23 June 2011

GBP/USD sell off has reached 200 day ma at 1.6029

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily GBP/USD Chart
Comment: GBP/USD has started to erode to its neckline support at 1.6091, the 1.6056/54 support (the May low and Fibonacci support) and the 200 day ma at 1.6029. Ideally we would like to see a CLOSE below this major support, to confirm another leg lower is underway and until that is seen we would allow for an intraday rebound. Initial target is the 1.5831 55 week moving average then 1.5510/00. Rallies will find interim resistance at 1.6260 and should remain capped by the resistance line at 1.6392. Todays trade: Short average 1.6170, add 1.6260, stops 1.6395. Cover 1.5835 Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Market has failed at trend line, look for slide back to 1.6058/54. Medium term (1-3 months): Neutral to negative looking for 1.7050 to hold the topside. Resistance line at 1.6392 Current Price: 1.6044

200 day ma at 1.6029

Support 1.6046** 1.6029* 1.5937** 1.5831** 1.5891* Reason 50% retracement 200 dma March low 55 week ma Fibo
th

Resistance 1.6260/80** 1.6353/70 1.6392* 1.6546** 1.6598*

Reason Minor Fibo 55 dma 2 month RL May high 78.6% Fibo

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Thursday, 23 June 2011

USD/JPY neutral to slightly positive

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily USD/JPY Chart
Comment: USD/JPY is starting to show signs of recovery. Support lies at 80.05 ahead of the 79.79/57 support area (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the March-to-April advance and May low). While above here scope for recovery to 81.84/82.31, the 55 and 200 day ma remains. This in turn guards the 2007-2011 downtrend at 83.52. Failure to hold over 79.57 will target the 78.25/78.6% retracement of the move up from the March spike low. Todays trade: Long 80.20, add 79.80 and place stops below 79.50. Partially cover 82.20 and cover the remainder 83.25. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Looking for current correction lower to stabilise around the 80.00 level. Medium term (1-3 month): Look for a recovery to the downtrend at 84.02. This will act as the break point to the April high at 85.53, then 87.55 en route to 94.50 (inter-year target). Current Price: 80.43

Support 80.00* 79.92** 79.79* 79.57** 78.24*

Reason Psych. support 1995 low 61.8% Fibo May low Fibo

Resistance 81.08* 81.84* 82.21 82.31* 83.30**

Reason Wednesday high 55 dma May high 200 dma March high

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Thursday, 23 June 2011

EUR/JPY Market faltering at resistance lines

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily EUR/JPY Chart
Comment: EUR/JPY the rebound from its 200 day ma at 113.92 has so far been tepid, should the market again fail to overcome the 55 day ma and the downtrend at 117.29/40, our attention will once again revert to support. Directly below the market we find the 200 day ma at 113.94, the 55 week moving average at 113.05 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 112.93. We need a close above 117.90 (early June high) to generate upside interest to 123.33 April high. Failure at 112.90 will target 110.10, the 78.6% retracement of the rally higher from the spike low. Todays trade: Long 114.00/113.75, raise stops to below 113.40. Partially cover at market and for the remainder look to exit longs at 116.00. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Stalling at 55 dma low for retest of 200 dma. Medium term (1-3 months): Based at 106.50/105.45. Targets 123.33, then 130.00.
Support 113.94** 113.40** 113.05** 112.93** 111.95 Reason 200 dma May low 55 wma 61.8% Fibonacci th 28 Feb low
th

Current Price: 115.10

Resistance line at 117.41 Resistance line at 116.35

200 day moving average is at 113.94

Resistance 116.00 116.48 117.25 117.40* 117.29**

Reason Mar high 2 month line th 19 May high 55 dma Resistance line

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Thursday, 23 June 2011

EUR/GBP stalled on initial test of 2 month resistance line

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily EUR/GBP Chart
Comment: EUR/GBP is starting to look more interesting. The market stalled on its initial test of the resistance line at .8947. Directly above here lies the top of its 2 year channel resistance at .8985. A weekly close above here would initiate the start of Sterling underperformance we suspect for a move to .9042 and then .9140/48 (2010 high and long term Fibo) However so far it has stalled on the initial test and we should allow for a set back to .8814/.8760 provided the recent low at .8723 is not violated, it will remain well placed for upside attempt. We neutralise our outlook waiting for price action at the .8985 resistance to dictate direction with GBP/USD looking like a potential top the risk is for an upside break. Todays trade: Holding shorts from .8945 stops over .8985. Partially cover .8815, looking to reverse on dips to .8760 stops below .8720. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Neutral. Medium term (1-3 months): Targets the .9042 May high.
Support .88145 .8760 .87235* .8675** .8681* Reason 55 day ma Supp line Last wk low th 12 May low 4 month SL Resistance .8947* .8950* .8977** .8985** .9000** Reason Resist line Fibo th 8 June high channel Psych. resistance

Current Price: .8915

Resistance line at .8947

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Thursday, 23 June 2011

EUR/GBP approaching top of 2 year channel at .8985

Channel at .8985

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Thursday, 23 June 2011

EUR/CHF faltering at 55 dma and channel at 1.2157

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily EUR/CHF Chart
Comment: EUR/CHF directly above the market lies the 55 day ma at and the accelerated channel at 1.2157, both have repeatedly curbed the topside and we should again allow for failure. This will leave the risk on the downside to retest the 1.1946 recent low. Should a break below 1.1950/46 be seen, we have point and figure targets at 1.1790 and using the 1.24-1.32 consolidation to predict lower targets would imply losses to 1.1600. Todays trade: Short 1.2125, add 1.2150, lower stops 1.2270. Cover 1.1950. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Negative bias while capped by downtrend channel. Medium term (1-3 months): Targets 1.1950, scope for 1.1795/00. 1.2157 Current Price 1.2047

1.1965/50 key support

Support 1.2000/04** 1.1950/65** 1.1946** 1.1882/63* 1.1795*

Reason Psych. support Base of channel Recent low P&F targets

Resistance 1.2157 1.2157** 1.2267 1.2319 1.2398/1.2404*

Reason 55 day ma Channel RL downtr Current June high Dec & March lows

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Thursday, 23 June 2011

Other technical analysis reports we publish are:

Monday: Tuesday: Wednesday: Thursday: Friday: Fixed Income Weekly Technicals. FX Emerging Markets Technicals, Strategic Technical Themes; Bullion Weekly Technicals; Commodity Weekly & Commodity Currencies Weekly Technicals;

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Thursday, 23 June 2011

Explanation:

This technical analysis report is based primarily on Dow theory and is using bar and candlestick charts. Support and resistance levels with no asterisk denote minor levels. One asterisk denotes an area of reasonable support or resistance, two stars are for strong areas of support or resistance. Uptr = Uptrend, connecting 3 low points. SL = Support line. Support lines have only 2 points of contact and are not as important as uptrends. Dtr= Downtrend, connecting 3 high points. RL = Resistance line. Resistance lines connect only 2 high points and are not as important as downtrends. Fibo = Fibonacci retracement we use the 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 78.6% levels. Fibox = Fibonacci extension we use the 61.8%, 78.6%, 100%, 138.2%, 161.8% and 261.8% levels. Pivot point = an area on the chart which acts as both support and resistance. St = Short term level (for example St Fibonacci retracement refers to the nearest highs and lows) Lt = Long term level (for example Lt Fibonacci retracement refers to longer term highs and lows) 55 dma = 55 day (simple) moving average 200 wma = 200 week (simple) moving average

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Thursday, 23 June 2011

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Disclaimer
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Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Thursday, 23 June 2011

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Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Thursday, 23 June 2011

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Karen Jones
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Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Thursday, 23 June 2011