AMB Country Risk Report

October 29, 2010

Nigeria
Country Risk Tier
CRT-5
The Country Risk Tier (CRT) reflects A.M. Bests assessment of three categories of risk: Economic, Political and Financial System Risk. Nigeria, a CRT-5 country, exhibits high economic risk and very high political and financial system risk. Violence and corruption weigh on Nigerias ability to increase the wealth of the population. The majority of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are categorized as CRT-5, with the exceptions being South Africa at CRT-3 and Mauritius at CRT-4. Though the region as a whole experienced a brief slowdown in 2009 to gross domestic product growth of 2.6%. The regional growth rate will likely be double that figure in 2010 and 2010, supported by increased demand and higher commodity prices.

Economic Risk
Moderate Low High

Very Low

Very High

Political Risk
Moderate Low High

Very Low

Very High

Financial System Risk

Moderate Low High

Very Low

Very High

For information on companies followed Market Outlooks

Copyright 2010 by A.M. Best Company, Inc.

All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means; electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise.

AMB Country Risk Report

Nigeria

Regional Summary: Sub-Saharan Africa

The region of Sub-Saharan Africa contains a vast array of climates, natural resources and historical and cultural foundations. The region as a whole is plagued with violence, crime, malnutrition and corruption, with few of the countries enjoying economic prosperity. In some cases, the region is home to some of the most economically-challenged countries in the world. The insurance regulatory environments through most of Sub-Saharan Africa are in a relatively early stage of development, working toward compliance with international standards.

Vital Statistics 2009 Nominal GDP Population GDP Per Capita Real GDP Growth Inflation Rate Premiums Written (Life) Premiums Written (Non-Life) Premiums Growth (07-08) USD bn mil USD % % USD mil USD mil % Country Risk Tier CRT-5 CRT-5 CRT-3 CRT-5 CRT-4 CRT-4 173.43 151.9 1,142 5.6 12.4 247 1,019 51.8

Regional Comparison Nigeria Kenya South Africa Ghana Morocco Tunisia

Source: IMF, Axco, Swiss Re and A.M. Best

Economic Risk: High

Nigeria, Africas most populous nation, is endowed with petroleum reserves; the production of which accounts for approximately two thirds of gross domestic product (GDP) and the majority of government revenues. Foreign investors are attracted to Nigerias petroleum industry, and there is a bullish attitude about Nigerias economy relative to much of the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa. External debt fell sharply during the global oil boom. Nigeria is the first African nation to settle its debts with the Paris Club group of creditors. Though the global economic crisis weighed on Nigerian fiscal and trade balances, growth will continue through the foreseeable future.

25.0 Real GDP CPI Inflation

20.0

15.0

% 10.0 5.0 0.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (10/09) and A.M. Best

AMB Country Risk Report

Nigeria

Political Risk Summary

Score 1 (best) to 5 (worst)
Nigeria World Average
International Transactions Policy

Political Risk: Very High

Nigerias potential is unrealized as corruption, inadequate physical and bureaucratic infrastructures, an inefficient legal system and social instability interfere with commercial and private investment.
Fiscal Policy

5 4 3 2 1 0

Legal System

Monetary Policy

Regional Stability

The Niger Delta region is unstable with poor environmental conditions and waves of violence. This poses a threat to social and political stability but also to the economy as this often results in disruptions in oil production. President Umaru Yar-Adua is aggressive in addressing corruption, particularly in business.

Social Stability

Business Environment

Government Stability

Labor Flexibility

Source: A.M. Best

GDPPERCAPCHART

7,000 GDP Per Capita 6,000 Population

160

140

Financial System Risk: Very High

The National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) regulates the Nigerian insurance industry. There is a proposal that a new regulator be put in place to oversee all Nigerian financial sector regulation, atop the individual sector regulators like NAICOM. The government has stated its intention to adopt international accounting standards (IFRS).

120 5,000 100 4,000 80 3,000 60 2,000 40 Millions USD 1,000

20

0 Nigeria Kenya South Africa Ghana Morocco Tunisia

Source: IMF and A.M. Best

Page 3

GUIDE TO BESTS COUNTRY RISK TIERS

A.M. Best defines country risk as the risk that country-specific factors could adversely affect the claims paying ability of an insurer. Country risk is evaluated and factored into all Bests Credit Ratings. Countries are placed into one of five tiers, ranging from CRT-1 (Country Risk Tier 1), denoting a stable environment with the least amount of risk, to CRT-5 (Country Risk Tier 5) for countries that pose the most risk and, therefore, the greatest challenge to an insurers financial stability, strength and performance. A.M. Bests Country Risk Tiers are not credit ratings and are not directly comparable to a sovereign debt rating, which evaluates the ability and willingness of a government to service its debt obligations.

Country Risk Tiers

Country Risk Tier CRT-1 CRT-2 CRT-3 CRT-4 CRT-5 Definition Predictable and transparent legal environment, legal system and business infrastructure; sophisticated financial system regulation with deep capital markets; mature insurance industry framework. Predictable and transparent legal environment, legal system and business infrastructure; sufficient financial system regulation; mature insurance industry framework. Developing legal environment, legal system and business environment with developing capital markets; developing insurance regulatory structure. Relatively unpredictable and nontransparent political, legal and business environment with underdeveloped capital markets; partially to fully inadequate regulatory structure. Unpredictable and opaque political, legal and business environment with limited or nonexistent capital markets; low human development and social instability; nascent insurance industry.

Country Risk Reports

A.M. Best Country Risk Reports are designed to provide a brief, high level, explanation of some of the key factors that determine a countrys Country Risk Tier assignment. It is not intended to summarize A.M. Bests opinion on any particular insurance market, or the prospects for that market.

Categories of Risk
Country Risk Reports provide scores for three categories of risk for each country. These scores are: (1) Very Low; (2) Low; (3) Moderate; (4) High and (5) Very High. Category of Risk Definition The likelihood that fundamental weaknesses in a countrys economy will cause adverse developments for an Economic Risk insurer. A.M. Bests assessment of economic risk evaluates the state of the domestic economy, government finances and international transactions, as well as prospects for growth and stability. The likelihood that government or bureaucratic inefficiencies, societal tensions, inadequate legal system or international tensions will cause adverse developments for an insurer. Political risk comprises the stability of the Political Risk government and society, the effectiveness of international diplomatic relationships, the reliability and integrity of the legal system and of the business infrastructure, the efficiency of the government bureaucracy and the appropriateness and effectiveness of the governments economic policies. Financial system risk (which includes both insurance and non-insurance financial system risk) is the risk that financial volatility may erupt due to inadequate reporting standards, weak banking system or asset markets Financial System Risk and/or poor regulatory structure. Along with the risk that the insurance industrys level of development and public awareness, transparent and effective regulation and reporting standards and sophisticated regulatory body will contribute to a volatile financial system and compromise the ability of an insurer to pay claims.

Political Risk Summary

To provide additional detail on the political risk in a given domicile the Country Risk Reports include the Political Risk Summary. The Political Risk Summary is a radar chart that displays scores for nine different aspects of political risk scored on a scale of 1-5 with 1 being the least amount of risk and 5 being the highest amount of risk. Category Definition International Transactions Measures the effectiveness of the exchange rate regime and currency management. Policy Monetary Policy Measures the ability of a country to effectively implement monetary policy. Fiscal Policy Business Environment Labor Flexibility Government Stability Social Stability Regional Stability Legal System Measures the ability of a country to effectively implement fiscal policy. Measures the overall quality of the business environment, and ease of doing business. Measures the flexibility of the labor market, including the companys ability to hire and fire employees. Measures the degree of stability in a government. Measures the degree of social stability including human development and political rights. Measures the degree of stability in the region Measures the transparency and level of corruption in the legal system.

Country Risk Tier Disclosure

A Country Risk Tier (CRT) is not a credit rating, rather it represents a component of A.M. Bests credit rating methodology that is applied to all insurers. A CRT is not a recommendation to purchase, hold or terminate any security, insurance policy, contract or any other financial obligation issued by a government, an insurer or other rated issuer, nor do they address the suitability of any particular policy, contract or other financial obligation for a specific purpose or purchaser.

Financial Strength Ratings are distributed via press release and/or the A.M. Best Web site at www.ambest.com and are published in the Rating Actions section of BestWeek. Financial Strength Ratings are proprietary and may not be reproduced without permission. Copyright 2010 by A.M. Best Company, Inc. Version 070208

Copyright 2010 by A.M. Best Company, Inc.

All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means; electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise.