Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 16

i F(t) = MR/100 1-F(t) 1/(1-F(t)) ln(1/(1-F(t)) y = lnln t(i)

1 0.0343137255 0.9656862745 1.0355329949 0.0349162651 -3.354802509 3


2 0.0833333333 0.9166666667 1.0909090909 0.087011377 -2.441716399 20
3 0.1323529412 0.8676470588 1.1525423729 0.1419702613 -1.952137671 27
4 0.181372549 0.818627451 1.2215568862 0.2001261814 -1.608807204 50
5 0.2303921569 0.7696078431 1.2993630573 0.2618741885 -1.339891087 70
6 0.2794117647 0.7205882353 1.387755102 0.3276874071 -1.115695152 90
7 0.3284313725 0.6715686275 1.4890510949 0.398139068 -0.920953918 95
8 0.3774509804 0.6225490196 1.6062992126 0.4739329074 -0.746689513 120
9 0.4264705882 0.5735294118 1.7435897436 0.555946059 -0.587084006 149
10 0.4754901961 0.5245098039 1.9065420561 0.6452911594 -0.438053654 198
11 0.5245098039 0.4754901961 2.1030927835 0.7434090153 -0.296508894 200
12 0.5735294118 0.4264705882 2.3448275862 0.8522118752 -0.159920103 220
13 0.6225490196 0.3774509804 2.6493506494 0.974314572 -0.026021058 250
14 0.6715686275 0.3284313725 3.0447761194 1.1134273745 0.1074429828 300
15 0.7205882353 0.2794117647 3.5789473684 1.275068726 0.2430000799 340
16 0.7696078431 0.2303921569 4.3404255319 1.4679723921 0.3838821236 380
17 0.818627451 0.181372549 5.5135135135 1.7072020812 0.5348558206 420
18 0.8676470588 0.1323529412 7.5555555556 2.0222831278 0.7042271345 500
19 0.9166666667 0.0833333333 12 2.4849066498 0.9102350934 650
20 0.9656862745 0.0343137255 29.142857143 3.3722098448 1.2155682698 700
x=ln(ti) beta b b/beta eta
1.09861229 0.8634294 -4.8034622 -5.5632365 260.67
2.99573227
3.29583687
3.91202301
4.24849524
4.49980967
4.55387689
4.78749174
5.00394631
5.28826703
5.29831737
5.39362755
5.52146092
5.70378247
5.82894562
5.94017125
6.04025471
6.2146081
6.47697236
6.55108034
i F(t) = MR/100 1-F(t) 1/(1-F(t)) ln(1/(1-F(t)) y = lnln t(i) x=ln(ti)
1 0.00475 0.9952510176 1.0047716428 0.0047602946 -5.347445721 50 3.91202301
2 0.01153 0.9884667571 1.0116678106 0.0116002666 -4.456727202 70 4.24849524
3 0.01832 0.9816824966 1.0186592951 0.0184873461 -3.990668775 90 4.49980967
4 0.02510 0.9748982361 1.0257480863 0.0254221867 -3.672132995 95 4.55387689
5 0.03189 0.9681139756 1.0329362299 0.0324054553 -3.429428498 120 4.78749174
6 0.03867 0.9613297151 1.0402258292 0.0394378331 -3.233029693 149 5.00394631
7 0.04545 0.9545454545 1.0476190476 0.0465200156 -3.067872615 198 5.28826703
8 0.05224 0.947761194 1.0551181102 0.0536527135 -2.925223234 200 5.29831737
9 0.05902 0.9409769335 1.0627253064 0.0608366524 -2.799562836 220 5.39362755
10 0.06581 0.934192673 1.070442992 0.068072574 -2.687180878 250 5.52146092
11 0.07259 0.9274084125 1.0782735918 0.075361236 -2.585462247 300 5.70378247
12 0.07938 0.920624152 1.0862196021 0.0827034129 -2.492494409 340 5.82894562
13 0.08616 0.9138398915 1.0942835932 0.0900998963 -2.406836265 380 5.94017125
14 0.09294 0.9070556309 1.1024682124 0.0975514956 -2.32737488 420 6.04025471
15 0.09973 0.9002713704 1.1107761869 0.1050590384 -2.253232816 500 6.2146081
16 0.10651 0.8934871099 1.1192103265 0.112623371 -2.183706027 650 6.47697236
17 0.11330 0.8867028494 1.1277735272 0.1202453591 -2.118220964 700 6.55108034
18
19
20
beta b b/beta eta N
1.0865796 -8.89066208 -8.18224651 3576.88 147
i F(t) = MR/100 1-F(t) 1/(1-F(t)) ln(1/(1-F(t)) y = lnln t(i) x=ln(ti)
1 0.04023 0.9597701149 1.0419161677 0.0410614868 -3.192684658 50 3.91202301
2 0.09770 0.9022988506 1.1082802548 0.1028094939 -2.274877577 70 4.24849524
3 0.15517 0.8448275862 1.1836734694 0.1686227124 -1.780091531 90 4.49980967
4 0.21264 0.7873563218 1.2700729927 0.2390743734 -1.43098059 95 4.55387689
5 0.27011 0.7298850575 1.3700787402 0.3148682128 -1.1556011 120 4.78749174
6 0.32759 0.6724137931 1.4871794872 0.3968813644 -0.924117873 149 5.00394631
7 0.38506 0.6149425287 1.6261682243 0.4862264648 -0.721080787 198 5.28826703
8 0.44253 0.5574712644 1.793814433 0.5843443207 -0.53726488 200 5.29831737
9 0.50000 0.5 2 0.6931471806 -0.366512921 220 5.39362755
10 0.55747 0.4425287356 2.2597402597 0.8152498774 -0.204260615 250 5.52146092
11 0.61494 0.3850574713 2.5970149254 0.9543626798 -0.046711512 300 5.70378247
12 0.67241 0.3275862069 3.0526315789 1.1160040314 0.1097544763 340 5.82894562
13 0.72989 0.2701149425 3.7021276596 1.3089076975 0.2691929707 380 5.94017125
14 0.78736 0.2126436782 4.7027027027 1.5481373866 0.4370525222 420 6.04025471
15 0.84483 0.1551724138 6.4444444444 1.8632184332 0.6223053328 500 6.2146081
16 0.90230 0.0977011494 10.235294118 2.3258419552 0.8440821047 650 6.47697236
17 0.95977 0.0402298851 24.857142857 3.2131451502 1.167250255 700 6.55108034
18
19
20
beta b b/beta eta
1.4671069 -8.41631264 -5.73667307 310.03
i F(t) = MR/100 1-F(t) 1/(1-F(t)) ln(1/(1-F(t)) y = lnln t(i) x=ln(ti)
1 0.09459 0.9054054054 1.1044776119 0.0993724738 -2.308880127 604 6.4035742
2 0.09459 0.9054054054 1.1044776119 0.0993724738 -2.308880127 757 6.4035742
3 0.22973 0.7702702703 1.298245614 0.2610138254 -1.343181902 1138 6.62936325
4 0.36486 0.6351351351 1.5744680851 0.4539174915 -0.789839834 1359 7.03702761
5 0.50000 0.5 2 0.6931471806 -0.366512921 1493 7.21450441
6 0.63514 0.3648648649 2.7407407407 1.0082282272 0.0081945599 1567 7.3085428

0.24766655 75% confiabilidade


falha acumulada
beta b b/beta eta N
2.3770840 -17.4269048 -7.33121128 1527.23 7
n: 40000 T: 50000 TZERO: 40000
10000
I ti(milhas) ^R(t) ^F(t) ^f(t) ^l(t)
0 0 1.00000 -1.000000
1 364 0.974359 -1.000000
2 577 0.948718 𝐹𝑠𝑖𝑠𝑡 = 𝐹1. 𝐹2. 𝐹3 = (1 −
3 618 0.923077
4 1157 0.897436
5 1539 0.871795
6 1613 0.846154 0.504
7 1943 0.820513

N 38 0.9 0.8

0.97436 0.974359
n 12 1
horas em
i operação CONFIABILIDADE
0 0 1.00000
1 746 0.92308
2 1106 0.84615
3 1417 0.76923
4 (3/2) 24 1
5 6
6

i 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
n 7
t 0 746 1106 1417

8 8
1
i t R(t) F(t) f(t) Y(t)
0 0 1
1 364 0.875
2 577 0.75
3 618 -2
4 1157 -3
5 1539 0.444444
6 1613 -5
7 1943 -6
𝑠𝑖𝑠𝑡 = 𝐹1. 𝐹2. 𝐹3 = (1 − 𝑅1)(1 − 𝑅2) − (1 − 𝑅3) 𝑅𝑠𝑖𝑠𝑡 = 1 − [(1 − 𝑅1)(1 − 𝑅2) − (1 − 𝑅3)]

0.994

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.006


0.7

4 3
-0.142857
F(T) R(T)
0.752796 0.247204

TZERO TZERO=10000
0.247204

8000000 0
i MR 1-f(t) 1/1-f(t) ln(1/1f(t) Y=lnln t(i) x=Ln(ti) beta
1 0.03431373 0.96568627 1.03553299 0.03491627 -3.35480251 3 1.098612 0.863429
2 0.08333333 0.91666667 1.09090909 0.08701138 -2.44171640 20 2.995732
3 0.13235294 0.86764706 1.15254237 0.14197026 -1.95213767 27 3.295837
4 0.18137255 0.81862745 1.22155689 0.20012618 -1.60880720 50 3.912023
5 0.23039216 0.76960784 1.29936306 0.26187419 -1.33989109 70 4.248495
6 0.27941176 0.72058824 1.38775510 0.32768741 -1.11569515 90 4.49981
7 0.32843137 0.67156863 1.48905109 0.39813907 -0.92095392 95 4.553877
8 0.37745098 0.62254902 1.60629921 0.47393291 -0.74668951 120 4.787492
9 0.42647059 0.57352941 1.74358974 0.55594606 -0.58708401 149 5.003946
10 0.47549020 0.52450980 1.90654206 0.64529116 -0.43805365 198 5.288267
11 0.52450980 0.47549020 2.10309278 0.74340902 -0.29650889 200 5.298317
12 0.57352941 0.42647059 2.34482759 0.85221188 -0.15992010 220 5.393628
13 0.62254902 0.37745098 2.64935065 0.97431457 -0.02602106 250 5.521461
14 0.67156863 0.32843137 3.04477612 1.11342737 0.10744298 300 5.703782
15 0.72058824 0.27941176 3.57894737 1.27506873 0.24300008 340 5.828946
16 0.76960784 0.23039216 4.34042553 1.46797239 0.38388212 380 5.940171
17 0.81862745 0.18137255 5.51351351 1.70720208 0.53485582 420 6.040255
18 0.86764706 0.13235294 7.55555556 2.02228313 0.70422713 500 6.214608
19 0.91666667 0.08333333 12.00000000 2.48490665 0.91023509 650 6.476972
20 0.96568627 0.03431373 29.14285714 3.37220984 1.21556827 700 6.55108

N= 20
b b/beta etha
-4.803462 -5.563237 260.6651

Вам также может понравиться