Chaplei 9 Chaplei 9

NOTES









Prepared by:
Nrs. Narian T. Reyes
CBESTA2
De La Salle University
ELGA 1: Effective communicators
Know and be familiar with the correct
nomenclature and symbols for parameters and
statistics
ELGA 2: Critical and creative thinkers
Recognize problems as applications of the
various tests of hypothesis which have been
discussed
Analyze and solve statistical problems and
interpret statistical results
Chapter 9
Tests of Hypothesis


ELGA 3: Technically proficient and competent
professionals and leaders
Learn to use the calculator and the computer in
generating statistical results
Be familiar with the use of basic software
(Microsoft Excel and its add-in PHSTAT) in statistical
analysis and decision-making;
ELGA 4: Service-driven, ethical, and socially
responsible citizens
Realize the significance of statistics in
business decision-making of entrepreneurs and
corporate managers and how statistics can
contribute to development
Chapter 9
Tests of Hypothesis


Chapter 9
Hypothesis Testing
Chapter Outline
Developing Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
Type I and Type II Errors
One-Tailed Tests About a Population
Mean: Large-Sample Case
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population
Mean: Large-Sample Case
Tests About a Population Mean: Small-
Sample Case
continued


Chapter 9
Hypothesis Testing
Tests About a Population Proportion
Hypothesis Testing and Decision Making
Calculating the Probability of Type I & II
Errors


What are Hypotheses?
Research Hypothesis
a statement of what the researcher believes will
be the outcome of an experiment or a study.
Statistical Hypotheses
a more formal structure derived from the research
hypothesis. A conjecture regarding one or several
population parameters.
Substantive Hypotheses
a statistically significant difference does not imply
or mean a material, substantive difference.


Developing Null and
Alternative Hypotheses
Definition. The null hypothesis, denoted by H
0
is the conjecture that is held as true unless
there is sufficient evidence to conclude
otherwise. The null hypothesis always contains
an equality and hence, in terms of population
parameters, comes in the form H
0
: =
0
or
H
0
:
0
, or H
0
:
0
. It is the Status Quo.
Manufacturers claims are usually given the
benefit of the doubt and stated as the null
hypothesis.


Definition. The alternative hypothesis
denoted by H
A
is the conjecture that covers all
situations not covered by the null hypothesis.
The alternative hypothesis never contains an
equality and hence, in terms of populations
parameters, comes in the form H
A
:
0
or H
A
:
<
0
, or H
A
: >
0
. The burden of proof falls
on the alternative hypothesis.
Developing Null and
Alternative Hypotheses


Test Statistic
Definition. The test statistic is a measure of
how close the sample results have come to the
hypothesized value of the parameter in the null
hypothesis. The test statistic follows a well-
known distribution such as Z, t, binomial, etc.


Decision Rule
Definition. The decision rule is a rule that
specifies under what conditions the null
hypothesis may be rejected.
There are two decisions that can be made in a
test of hypothesis, namely, to reject it, or not to
reject (accept) it.
Example: Accepting a shipment of goods
from a supplier or returning the shipment of
goods to the supplier.


Errors in Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis testing is not a foolproof
procedure. Remember that statisticians base
their decisions on sample results, and
sometimes, sample results could lead them
to make incorrect decisions.


Types of Errors
There are two types of errors that can be made when
carrying out a test of hypothesis.
A Type I error occurs when one rejects the null
hypothesis when in fact it is true. The probability of
committing a Type I error is denoted by and it is
called the level of significance.
A Type II error occurs when one fails to reject the
null hypothesis when in fact it is false. The probability
of committing a Type II error is denoted by .


Types of Errors
Type II error Correct Decision Dont Reject H
0
Correct Decision Type I error Reject H
0
H
0
False H
0
True Decision
Actual Situation


Critical Region
Definition. The critical region, or rejection region,
is a range of numbers such that if the value of the
test statistic falls in this range, it will lead to the
rejection of the null hypothesis.
The critical numbers determines the critical region.
The rejection region is designed so that, before the
sampling takes place, our test statistic will have a
probability of of falling within the rejection region if
the null hypothesis is true.


Region of Non-Rejection
Definition. The region of non-rejection is the
range of values (also determined by the critical
numbers) that will lead us not to reject the null
hypothesis if the test statistic should fall within
this region. The region or non-rejection is
designed so that before the sampling takes
place, our test statistic will have a probability of
1 - of falling in this region if the null
hypothesis is true.


Hvpolheses Hvpolheses Righl Righl- -TaiIed Lefl TaiIed Lefl- -TaiIed TaiIed

O O
: : < <
0 0

O O
: : > >
0 0

a a
: : > >
0 0

a a
: : < <
0 0
Tesl Slalislic Tesl Slalislic Knovn Knovn Unknovn Unknovn
Rejeclion RuIe Rejeclion RuIe Uppei Uppei- -TaiIed Lovei TaiIed Lovei- -TaiIed TaiIed
Rejecl Rejecl
O O
if if > >

Rejecl Rejecl
O O
if if < < - -

One-Tailed Tests about a Population
Mean: Large-Sample Case (n > 30)
z
x
n
=

0
/
z
x
n
=

0
/
z
x
s n
=

0
/
z
x
s n
=

0
/
=40 oz
Rejection Region
Non Rejection Region
Critical Value
=40 oz
Rejection Region
Non Rejection Region
Critical Value
=40 oz
Rejection Region
Non Rejection Region
Critical Value
=40 oz
Rejection Region
Non Rejection Region
Critical Value


Hypotheses
H
0
: =
0
H
a
:
0
Test Statistic Known Unknown
Rejection Rule Reject H
0
if |z| > z
/2
Two-Tailed Tests about a Population
Mean: Large-Sample Case (n > 30)

z
x
n
=

0
/
z
x
n
=

0
/
z
x
s n
=

0
/
z
x
s n
=

0
/
=40 oz
Non Rejection Region
Rejection Region
Critical Value
Rejection Region
Critical Value
=40 oz
Non Rejection Region
Rejection Region
Critical Value
Rejection Region
Critical Value


Hvpolheses Hvpolheses Righl Righl- -TaiIed Lefl TaiIed Lefl- -TaiIed TaiIed

O O
: : < <
0 0

O O
: : > >
0 0

a a
: : > >
0 0

a a
: : < <
0 0
Tesl Slalislic Tesl Slalislic Unknovn, NoinaI IopuIalion Unknovn, NoinaI IopuIalion
Rejeclion RuIe Rejeclion RuIe Uppei Uppei- -TaiIed Lovei TaiIed Lovei- -TaiIed TaiIed
Rejecl Rejecl
O O
if if > >

Rejecl Rejecl
O O
if if < < - -

One-Tailed Tests about a Population
Mean: Small-Sample Case (n < 30)
0
/
x
t
s n

=
0
/
x
t
s n

=
=40 oz
Rejection Region
Non Rejection Region
Critical Value
=40 oz
Rejection Region
Non Rejection Region
Critical Value
=40 oz
Rejection Region
Non Rejection Region
Critical Value
=40 oz
Rejection Region
Non Rejection Region
Critical Value


Hypotheses
H
0
: =
0
H
a
:
0
Test Statistic Unknown, normal population
Rejection Rule Reject H
0
if |t| > t
/2
Two-Tailed Tests about a Population
Mean: Small-Sample Case (n < 30)

0
/
x
t
s n

=
0
/
x
t
s n

=
=40 oz
Non Rejection Region
Rejection Region
Critical Value
Rejection Region
Critical Value
=40 oz
Non Rejection Region
Rejection Region
Critical Value
Rejection Region
Critical Value


Hvpolheses Hvpolheses Righl Righl- -TaiIed Lefl TaiIed Lefl- -TaiIed TaiIed

O O
: : p < < p
0 0

O O
: : p > > p
0 0

a a
: : p > > p
0 0

a a
: : p < < p
0 0
Tesl Slalislic Tesl Slalislic
Rejeclion RuIe Rejeclion RuIe Uppei Uppei- -TaiIed Lovei TaiIed Lovei- -TaiIed TaiIed
Rejecl Rejecl
O O
if if > >

Rejecl Rejecl
O O
if if < < - -

One-Tailed Tests about a
Population Proportion
0
0 0
(1 )
p p
p p
n
z

=
0
0 0
(1 )
p p
p p
n
z

=
=40 oz
Rejection Region
Non Rejection Region
Critical Value
=40 oz
Rejection Region
Non Rejection Region
Critical Value
=40 oz
Rejection Region
Non Rejection Region
Critical Value
=40 oz
Rejection Region
Non Rejection Region
Critical Value


Hypotheses
H
0
: = p
0
H
a
: p p
0
Test Statistic
Rejection Rule Reject H
0
if |z| > z
/2
Two-Tailed Tests about a
Population Proportion

0
0 0
(1 )
p p
p p
n
z

=
0
0 0
(1 )
p p
p p
n
z

=
=40 oz
Non Rejection Region
Rejection Region
Critical Value
Rejection Region
Critical Value
=40 oz
Non Rejection Region
Rejection Region
Critical Value
Rejection Region
Critical Value


Example: Metro EMS
Null and Alternative Hypotheses
A major west coast city provides one of the
most comprehensive emergency medical
services in the world. Operating in a multiple
hospital system with approximately 20 mobile
medical units, the service goal is to respond to
medical emergencies with a mean time of 12
minutes or less.
The director of medical services wants to
formulate a hypothesis test that could use a
sample of emergency response times to
determine whether or not the service goal of
12 minutes or less is being achieved.


Example: Arnolds Diner
A soft-drink machine at Arnolds Diner is
regulated so that the amount of drink
dispensed is approximately normally
distributed with a mean of 200 ml. and a
standard deviation of 15 ml. The machine is
checked periodically by taking a sample of 9
drinks and computing the mean content.
Based on the sample results, a decision is to
be made whether the machine is operating
satisfactorily, or needs corrective action.
State the null and alternative hypotheses.
What kind of test is this?


Example: Coffee
A producer of a certain brand of coffee claims
that at least 20% of all coffee drinkers prefer
its product to the major competing brand.


The 8-step procedure
The standard 8-step procedure in hypothesis testing
consists of the following elements:
1. Null Hypothesis
2. Alternative Hypothesis
3. Level of Significance
+. Test Statistic
5. Decision Rule and Critical Region
6. Computation
/. Conclusion
8. Nake a managerial decision.


The equality part of the hypotheses always
appears in the null hypothesis.
In general, a hypothesis test about the value
of a population mean must take one of the
following three forms (where
0
is the
hypothesized value of the population mean).
H
0
: >
0
H
0
: <
0
H
0
: =
0
H
a
: <
0
H
a
: >
0
H
a
:
0
Summary of Forms for Null and
Alternative Hypotheses about a
Population Mean



Example: Sewer Pipe
Suppose building specifications in a certain city require
that the average breaking strength of residential sewer
pipe be more than 2,400 pounds per foot of length (that
is, per lineal foot). Each manufacturer who wants to sell
pipe in this city must demonstrate that its product meets
the specification. It is desired to decide whether the mean
breaking strength of the pipe exceeds 2,400 pounds per
lineal foot. From the point of view of the city conducting
the tests, the null hypothesis is that the manufacturers
pipe does not meet specifications unless the tests provide
convincing evidence otherwise.


Example: Sewer Pipe
(Continuation) Assume that the breaking strength of
the sewer pipes is = 200 pounds per lineal foot.
The manufacturer takes a random sample of 50
pipes and found the mean breaking strength of
these pipes to be 2+60 pounds per lineal foot. Carry
out a test of the hypothesis using a = 0.05 level of
significance.


The Use of p-Values
The p-value is the probability of obtaining a
sample result that is at least as unlikely as
what is observed.
The p-value can be used to make the
decision in a hypothesis test by noting that:
if the p-value is less than the level of
significance , the value of the test statistic
is in the rejection region.
if the p-value is greater than or equal to ,
the value of the test statistic is not in the
rejection region.
Reject H
0
if the p-value < .


P-Value for Normality Cases
In general, for a one tailed test concerning normally
distributed test statistics,
(a) if the H
A
contains a <, the p-value is the area
P(Z < z) where z is the value of the test statistic.
(b) if the H
A
contains a >, the p-value is the area
P(Z > z) where z is the value of the test statistic.
(c) if the H
A
contains a , the p-value is 2P(Z > z )
where z is the value of the test statistic.


Example: Glow Toothpaste
Two-Tailed Tests about a Population Mean:
Large n
The production line for Glow toothpaste is
designed to fill tubes of toothpaste with a mean
weight of 6 ounces.
Periodically, a sample of 30 tubes will be
selected in order to check the filling process.
Quality assurance procedures call for the
continuation of the filling process if the sample
results are consistent with the assumption that
the mean filling weight for the population of
toothpaste tubes is 6 ounces; otherwise the
filling process will be stopped and adjusted.


Example: Glow Toothpaste
Two-Tailed Test about a Population Mean:
Large n
A hypothesis test about the population mean can
be used to help determine when the filling
process should continue operating and when it
should be stopped and corrected.
Assume that a sample of 30 toothpaste tubes
provides a sample mean of 6.1 ounces and
standard deviation of 0.2 ounces. Use a 0.05
level of significance.
Two Two- -Tailed Test about a Population Mean: Tailed Test about a Population Mean:
Large Large n n
A hypothesis test about the population mean can A hypothesis test about the population mean can
be used to help determine when the filling be used to help determine when the filling
process should continue operating and when it process should continue operating and when it
should be stopped and corrected. should be stopped and corrected.
Assume that a sample of 30 toothpaste tubes Assume that a sample of 30 toothpaste tubes
provides a sample mean of 6.1 ounces and provides a sample mean of 6.1 ounces and
standard deviation of 0.2 ounces. Use a 0.05 standard deviation of 0.2 ounces. Use a 0.05
level of significance. level of significance.


Confidence Interval Approach to a
Two-Tailed Test about a Population
Mean
Select a simple random sample from the
population and use the value of the sample
mean to develop the confidence interval for
the population mean .
If the confidence interval contains the
hypothesized value
0
, do not reject H
0
.
Otherwise, reject H
0
.
x x


Test Statistic Unknown
This test statistic has a t distribution with n - 1 degrees of
freedom.
Rejection Rule One-Tailed Two-Tailed
H
0
: <
0
Reject H
0
if t > t

H
0
: >
0
Reject H
0
if t < -t

H
0
: =
0
Reject H
0
if |t| > t
/2
Tests about a Population Mean:
Small-Sample Case (n < 30)
t
x
s n
=

0
/
t
x
s n
=

0
/


Example: Highway Patrol
One-Tailed Test about a Population Mean: Small n
A State Highway Patrol periodically samples
vehicle speeds at various locations on a particular
roadway. The sample of vehicle speeds is used to test
the hypothesis
H
0
: < 65.
The locations where H
0
is rejected are deemed the best
locations for radar traps.
At Location F, a sample of 16 vehicles shows a
mean speed of 68.7375 mph with a standard deviation
of 2.935 mph. Use an = .05 to test the hypothesis.


p -Values and the t Distribution
The format of the t distribution table provided
in most statistics textbooks does not have
sufficient detail to determine the exact p-
value for a hypothesis test.
However, we can still use the t distribution
table to identify a range for the p-value.
An advantage of computer software
packages is that the computer output will
provide the p-value for the
t distribution.


Example: Kelloggs
According to Dietary Goals for the United States, high
sodium intake may be related to ulcers, stomach
cancer, and migraine headaches. The human
requirement for salt is only 220 milligrams per day,
which is surpassed in most single servings of ready-
to-eat cereals. If a random sample of 20 similar
servings of Special K has a mean sodium content of
244 milligrams of sodium and a standard deviation of
24.5 milligrams, does this suggest at the 0.05 level of
significance that the average sodium content for
single servings of Special K is greater than 220
milligrams? Assume the distribution of sodium
contents to be normal.


Sunnaiv of Tesl Slalislics lo le Used in a Sunnaiv of Tesl Slalislics lo le Used in a
Hvpolhesis Tesl aloul a IopuIalion Mean Hvpolhesis Tesl aloul a IopuIalion Mean
n n > > 3O ` 3O `

assuned assuned
knovn knovn
` `
IopuIalion IopuIalion
appioxinaleIv appioxinaleIv
noinaI noinaI
` ` Use lo
eslinale
Use Use lo lo
eslinale eslinale
Use Use lo lo
eslinale eslinale
Inciease Inciease
lo lo > > 3O 3O
/
x
z
n

=
/
x
z
n

=
/
x
z
s n

=
/
x
z
s n

=
/
x
z
n

=
/
x
z
n

=
/
x
t
s n

=
/
x
t
s n

=
Yes Yes
Yes Yes
Yes Yes
Yes Yes
No No
No No
No No
No No

assuned assuned
knovn knovn
` `


The equality part of the hypotheses always appears in
the null hypothesis.
In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a
population proportion p must take one of the following
three forms (where p
0
is the hypothesized value of the
population proportion).
H
0
: p > p
0
H
0
: p < p
0
H
0
: p = p
0
H
a
: p < p
0
H
a
: p > p
0
H
a
: p p
0

Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative
Hypotheses about a Population Proportion


Test Statistic
where:
Rejection Rule
One-Tailed Two-Tailed
H
0
: p < p
0
Reject H
0
if z > z

H
0
: p > p
0
Reject H
0
if z < -z

H
0
: p = p
0
Reject H
0
if |z| > z
/2
Tests about a Population Proportion:
Large-Sample Case (np > 5 and n(1 - p) > 5)
z
p p
p
=

z
p p
p
=

p
p p
n
=

0 0
1 ( )

p
p p
n
=

0 0
1 ( )


Example: NSC
Two-Tailed Test about a Population Proportion: Large n
For a Christmas and New Years week, the
National Safety Council estimated that 500 people
would be killed and 25,000 injured on the nations
roads. The NSC claimed that 50% of the accidents
would be caused by drunk driving.
A sample of 120 accidents showed that 67 were
caused by drunk driving. Use these data to test the
NSCs claim with = 0.05.


Example: Drug Screening
A commonly prescribed drug on the market for
relieving nervous tension is believed to be only
60 effective. Experimental results with a new
drug administered to a random sample of 100
adults who were suffering from nervous tension
showed that /0 percent received relief. !s this
sufficient evidence to conclude that the new drug
is superior to the one commonly prescribed? Use
a 0.05 level of significance.


Computing Type I error
A soft-drink machine at Arnold's Diner is
regulated so that the amount of drink
dispensed is approximately normally distributed
with a mean of 200 ml. and a standard
deviation of 15 ml. The machine is checked
periodically by taking a sample of 9 drinks and
computing the mean content. !f x falls within
the interval 191 x 209 the machine is
thought to be operating satisfactorily;
otherwise we conclude that 200 ml.
Find = P(Type ! error) when = 200
ml.


Relationship among , , and n
Once two of the three values are known, the
other can be computed.
For a given level of significance , increasing
the sample size n will reduce .
For a given sample size n, decreasing will
increase , whereas increasing will
decrease b.


End-of-Chapter Assessment
Have you achieved the Expected La Sallian
Graduate Attributes (ELGAs) for this chapter?
Do you have questions or wish to clarify
something?
Can you solve similar problems confidently if
they are issued in the quiz?


End of Chapter 9