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Proceedings of the International Conference on Environmental Technology & Construction Engineering for Sustainable Development ICETCESD-2011, March 10-12,

2011, SUST, Sylhet, Bangladesh

SALINIZATION OF INLAND WATER SYSTEM OF COASTAL AREAS OF BANGLADESH DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
RIFAT QUAMRUL ALAM 1* , SAMARITA SARKER2 , MD. MUJIBUR RAHMAN3 Department of Civil Engineering, Military Institute of Science & Technology (MIST) Mirpur Cantonment, Dhaka-1216 3 Department of Civil Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka-1000. ABSTRACT: Global climate change, the major concerns of recent times is accentuating the salinization process. In this study salinization of the coastal areas of Bangladesh corresponding to climate change has been assessed using secondary data. The present situation of salinity of surface water in southern part of coastal zone of Bangladesh has been analyzed for selected stations. Based on this primary analysis, stations with significant salinity trend were identified & historical surface water salinity concentrations of these stations were analyzed. Rainfall regarded as a climatic factor has been analyzed through historical data of those stations. The analysis of rainfall for specific season & month shows a more reliable approach to identify change in climatic factor pattern. For every station, rainfall of August to December, May to July & all monthly rainfall are analyzed to observe change of patterns. Analysis of rainfall provides only a possible positive indication of change and a comparison between rainfall and present salinity condition has been represented Key Words: Climate Change; Salinity Intrusion; Rainfall; Coastal Zone; 1. INTRODUCTION Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries facing the adverse impacts of climate change. This is due to its unique geographic location, dominance of floodplains and low lowlying topography, high population density, high levels of poverty, and overwhelming dependence on natural resources and services, many of which is climate sensitive. The coastal zone consists of 19 districts and 147 upazilla with a total area of 47,201 km2, which is about 31% of the total area of Bangladesh, 147,570 km2. Among the adverse impacts of climate change, water resource related impacts will likely be the most critical for Bangladesh, including coastal and river flooding, droughts and salinity intrusion in coastal zone.. Salinity in both soil and water is a major concern for the coastal zone of Bangladesh. Intrusion of salinity towards interior coast will cause direct impact on fresh water source and food production. The possible factors which can lead to increase in salinity intrusion are decrease of fresh water flow during the dry season, or due to penetration of tide into the river system. Intrusion may also be aggravated by upstream withdrawal of water or by climate change impacts like a decrease in dry season rainfall and sea level rise.
*Corresponding Author: Rifat Quamrul Alam Email: mridul2040@gmail.com
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Salinization of Inland Water System of Coastal Areas of Bangladesh Due To Climate Change Rifat Quamrul Alam , Samarita Sarker , Md. Mujibur Rahman

2. DATA AND METHODOLOGY In this study, salinization of coastal zone of Bangladesh is assessed using surface water salinity data. Present and historical salinity concentration data are analyzed to examine the change of pattern of salinization and rainfall is considered as the climatic factor related to salinity. 2.1. Present surface water salinity concentration Salinity concentration data of surface water of selected stations (as illustrated in Fig 1) from Institute of Water Modelling for the year 2009 was analyzed to analyze the recent salinization pattern in coastal zone of Bangladesh. The dataset contains salinity concentration level in parts per thousands (ppt). Based on this preliminary analysis, stations with significant salinization trend were identified. 2.2. Historical salinity concentration data Available historical surface water salinity data of stations with significant salinization trend were analyzed to review the change of pattern in salinization trend. Historical salinity dataset were collected from Bangladesh Water Development Board. 2.3. Rainfall analysis Rainfall is considered as climatic factor related to salinization in this study, and the analysis of historical rainfall data was performed to address climate change. The rainfall data were collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). The dataset contains daily rainfall data for the year 2008, 2009 and historical monthly rainfall data of all available years ranging from 1949 and onwards in millimeter. The location of the raingauge stations are illustrated in Fig 2.

Fig 1: Location of salinity stations in coastal zone of Bangladesh


Proceedings of the International Conference on Environmental Technology & Construction Engineering for Sustainable Development ICETCESD-2011,

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Salinization of Inland Water System of Coastal Areas of Bangladesh Due To Climate Change Rifat Quamrul Alam , Samarita Sarker , Md. Mujibur Rahman
Jessore Madaripur Chandpur Feni

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Satkhira Khulna Barisal Bhola Patuakhali Khepupara

M.Court Sitakunda Rangamati Sandwip Hatiya Chittagong

Mongla

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Kutubdia

Coxs_Bazar

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Teknaf

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Fig 2: Location of BMD rain gauges in coastal zone of Bangladesh 3. ANALYSIS AND RESULT: 3.1. Analysis of present situation of salinity Total twenty (20) coastal stations surface water salinity data for the year 2009 was analyzed. For each station, measured salinity concentration in ppt was plotted against time to interpret the correlation between time and salinity level. Figure 3 shows the salinity against time plot for Khulna station. For this station, a linear trend lines is plotted for the whole data set. The value of coefficient of determination, R 2 is 0.968 which is nearly 1. The sharp uprising trend of the curve and the value of coefficient of determination suggest that Khulna has a significant impact on salinization trend. Based on this preliminary analysis, further historical salinity data is analyzed with rainfall. The same method is followed for the rest of the stations and stations with significant salinity trends are identified. However, the dataset of all the stations were collected during the dry period of the year (January-May) and there was obvious less freshwater flow to counterbalance the salinity. The summary of salinity level of all the station is presented in Fig 4.

Fig 3: Salinity concentration VS time: Khulna station (2009)


Proceedings of the International Conference on Environmental Technology & Construction Engineering for Sustainable Development ICETCESD-2011,

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Salinization of Inland Water System of Coastal Areas of Bangladesh Due To Climate Change Rifat Quamrul Alam , Samarita Sarker , Md. Mujibur Rahman

Fig 4: Summary of Salinity in ppt of all stations (2009) 3.2. Comparison of rainfall and present salinity In order to analyze rainfall as a climatic factor and find the relation between salinity and rainfall, the salinity dataset of IWM (2009) with rainfall data of Bangladesh Meteorological Department is analyzed together. The two dataset has complete different pattern in time variation series, so to compare them, an average value of the parameter with same time variation is calculated. The comparison of salinity and rainfall for Khepupara station is presented in Fig 5. In Fig 5, the salinity curve from average salinity value shows a fluctuated pattern. The two rainfall event caused the salinity level to decrease significantly as there was more freshwater to counterbalance the saline water. The main problem of analyzing rainfall with salinity is that the location of raingauge station of BMD and the location of salinity station are not same. So while considering the salinity station, the nearest possible raingauge stations data was taken into account. Also, due to the difference in time variation interval for the salinity and rainfall, the stations having less or no rainfall didnt show any significant pattern of change in salinity level with rainfall.

Fig 5: Comparison of Salinity and Rainfall of Khepupara (March -April 2009)


Proceedings of the International Conference on Environmental Technology & Construction Engineering for Sustainable Development ICETCESD-2011,

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Salinization of Inland Water System of Coastal Areas of Bangladesh Due To Climate Change Rifat Quamrul Alam , Samarita Sarker , Md. Mujibur Rahman

3.3. Analysis of Historical Salinity Data In this study, historical salinity data was collected from Bangladesh Water Development Board and dataset of Kalapara, Narail, Gopalganj, Khulna, Barisal, Bagerhat and Barguna were analyzed. These stations were chosen based on the preliminary analysis from dataset of IWM. The main limitation in this analysis was the historical data set lacks in a complete range of data. There were too many blank/missing points. Only Khulna station has a data of a period of 32 years (1975-2007), and Gopalganj has a dataset of 15 years (1993-2008) with less missing/blank points. The trend of salinity concentration for Khulna for 1975-1979, 1980-1989, 1998-2000 and 2001-2007 are shown in Fig 6(a), 6(b), 6(c), 6(d) respectively. From the analysis, the seasonal change of salinity is clear in Fig 6(b), in particular year salinity increases in dry season and decreases in wet seasons due to freshwater counterbalance. Also, the yearly peak value of salinity has an increasing trend for 1980-1989 and 2001-2007. Fig 6(d) suggests that in recent years salinity concentration has increased significantly. However, for the period of 1998-2000, there is a non-uniform pattern of salinity with a sudden peak value of 251000. Since the data was collected from secondary source, in this study this point is taken as an erroneous point and the salinization process of Khulna is considered for the other three data set and the data set of 1998-2000 is discarded. The analysis of Bagerhat and Gopalganj station also shows an increasing trend of salinity, with clear increase in seasonal salinity band.

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(b)

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Fig 6: Trends of historical Salinity concentration for Khulna station (ConductivityHWmmohs) for the period of (a) 1975-1979 (b) 1980-1989 (c) 1998-2000 (d) 2001-2007
Proceedings of the International Conference on Environmental Technology & Construction Engineering for Sustainable Development ICETCESD-2011,

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Salinization of Inland Water System of Coastal Areas of Bangladesh Due To Climate Change Rifat Quamrul Alam , Samarita Sarker , Md. Mujibur Rahman

3.4 Analysis of historical rainfall In this study, rainfall is considered as the climatic factor related to salinity concentration and historical data were analyzed to find the change of pattern of rainfall indicating possible evidence of climate change. The rainfall data used in this study were collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department. Data of Mongla, Khulna, Potuakhali, Khepupara, Satkhira and Barisal were analyzed. For each station, monthly rainfall of May to July, December to August for each individual year was plotted as illustrated in Fig 7(a) and 7(b). Also, all monthly rainfall and total annual rainfall was also plotted. From the analysis, the change in total annual rainfall for each station does not provide a clear evidence of any significant change. But the pattern in seasonal band of May to July, and December to August indicates a more reliable evidence of possible change of patterns. Satkhira, Khepupara and Khulna station shows an erratic rainfall pattern, and the erratic rainfall pattern is taken as a positive evidence of possible change in climate.

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(c) Fig 7: Historical rainfall of Satkhira station in millimeter from 1948-2008 (a) for May to July (b) for August to December (c) Total Annual rainfall
Proceedings of the International Conference on Environmental Technology & Construction Engineering for Sustainable Development ICETCESD-2011,

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Salinization of Inland Water System of Coastal Areas of Bangladesh Due To Climate Change Rifat Quamrul Alam , Samarita Sarker , Md. Mujibur Rahman

4. CONCLUSIONS From this study, it is evident that increase of salinity level in surface water is gradually becoming more significant. The present situation analysis and available historical data indicates that the salinization trend is sharp in interior coastal zone. The exterior coast has a more high level of salinity and the trend is fluctuating. The study also suggests that the salinity is gradually intruding more towards inland and rainfall has a clear and significant relationship with salinity as a climatic factor. Historical rainfall analysis gives evidence that over the period rainfall pattern has changed both in magnitude and distribution, providing a possible evidence of climate change which influences salinity. In this study, only selected portion of the coastal region were analyzed based on available data. The coastal region of Bangladesh has a very complex hydro-geological nature and to understand the scenario of the entire coastal zone requires all hydrological system and climatic parameters to be taken into account. 5. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The authors would like to thank Brig. Gen. Md Gazi Ferooz Rahman, Dean of the Civil Engineering Department of MIST, Institute of Water Modelling (IWM), Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) and Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) for their support and cooperation. REFERENCES [1] Ahmed, F. et al, Coastal Water supply in Bangladesh, Reaching the Unchanged: Challenges for the 21st Century, 22nd WEDC Conference, New Delhi, India, 1996. [2] Angus, S.D, Parris, B. and Hassani-M. B. Climate change impacts and adaptation in Bangladesh: An agent-based approach, 18th World IMACS / MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia, July 13-17 2009. [3] Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu and J.P. Palutikof, Eds., [2008]. Climate Change and Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, pp 210. [4] Chowdhury, J.U. et al, Permissible water withdrawal based upon prediction of salt-water intrusion in the Meghna Delta, Symposium on The Hydrological Basis for Water Resources Management ,Beijing, IAHS Publ. no. 197, October 1990. [5] IPCC, [2007]. Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. [6] IPCC, [2007]. Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

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Salinization of Inland Water System of Coastal Areas of Bangladesh Due To Climate Change Rifat Quamrul Alam , Samarita Sarker , Md. Mujibur Rahman

[7] MoEF, [2008]. Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan-2008, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh. xvi + pp 68. [8] MoEF, [2005]. National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh. [9] Rahman, M. M., Bhattacharya, A. K., 2006, Salinity Intrusion and Its Management Aspects in Bangladesh, Journal of environmental Hydrology, vol-14, pp-14. [10] Rahaman, M. M. Bangladesh from a country of flood to a country of water scarcity Sustainable Perspectives for Solution, Seminar on Environment and Development, 9-10 December 2005, Hamburg, Germany [11] Sarwar, G. M. Vulnerability Assessment of Coastal Land of Bangladesh. Presented at the International Workshop on Vulnerability and Resilience of Land Systems in Asia, Beijing, China, June 2009. [12] Water Resources Planning Organization [2006]. Coastal Development Strategy Ministry of Water Resources, Government of the Peoples Republic of Bangladesh, Approved at the 2nd meeting of the Inter-Ministerial Steering Committee on ICZMP held on February 13, 2006 .

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