PowerandKnowledge: ShiftingPublicPerspectivesByFrankGravesWalterGordonSymposiuminPublicPolicyToront o, OntarioMarch23,2011PowerandKnowledge: ShiftingPublicPerspectivesByFrankGravesWalterGordonSymposiuminPublicPolicyToront o, OntarioMarch23,2011

Outline .0 The Priority of Knowledge and Expertise .0 Knowledge Underrepresented and Undervalued .0 Faith and Reason .0 Limits to Knowledge and Understanding .0 The Future and Conclusions Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission.

Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. 1.0 The Priority of Knowledge and Expertise Knowledge is important Linked to social class, age, and gender Strongly linked to political ideology and vote intention

M o s t important trait in a national leader Q. Whichofthefol llowingtraitswouldyoumostliketoseeinanationalleader? 100 80 60 51 82192002040KnowledgeandunderstandingDecencyandmoralityDecisivenessandcertaintyCo mpassionandempathyDK/NR Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. BASE: Canadians; March 1517, 2011 ( n= 984)

Most important factor in national decision making Q. Inmakingimportantnationaldecisions,whichofthefol llowingfactorsdoyouthinkshouldbemostimportant? 3% 9% 29% 34% 24% Hard evidence of need/impacts Fairness and social justice Affordability and costs Impacts on social values/morality DK/NR Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. BASE: Canadians; March 1517, 2011 ( n= 984)

Trust in occupations Q. Howmuchtrustdoyouhaveineachofthefol llowingoccupationalgroupsorindividuals? MEAN Scientists University professors Journalists Pollsters Priests Union leaders Politicians Bloggers 810162128325774020406080100% highlevel(5,6,7) 5.4 4.8 3.9 3.9 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. BASE: Canadians; March 1517, 2011

( n= 984)

Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. 2.0 Knowledge Underrepresented and Undervalued Broad belief that populism is the dominant political mode Equally strong belief it should not be; knowledge should rule

I n t e l e c t u a l i s m versus populism in politics Q. Doyouthinkthatcontemporarypoliticsis/shouldbedrivenbyintel llectualismandrationaldebateorbypopulismand commonsense? Is driven by Should be driven by 374617 100 80 60 40 20 0 Intellectualism and rational debate Populism and common sense DK/ NR 122860 0 20 40 60 80 100

Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. BASE: Canadians; March 1517, 2011 ( n= 984)

Power gap: who has/ who should have power Q. Whichofthefol llowinggroupsshouldhave/shouldhavethemostinfluenceindefiningpublicpoliciesinCana da? GAP Lobbyists Media/ Journalists The Prime Minister Parliamentarians Public Servants Experts/ Professionals 7562455534141126394254484652020406080100-41+ 49+ 23+ 3+ 1-14-32 Have Should have

Average Citizens *Presentedinseriesofrandompairedchoices.Percentindicates averagenumberoftimesoptionisselectedoveral llothers. Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. BASE: Canadians; March 1517,

2011 ( n= 984)

Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. 3.0 Faith and Reason Chief contest is between certainty/morality and evidence/reason Certainty and morality are strongly linked to conservatism and religiosity Links to gender and ethnicity (as well as social class)

O r i g i n s of mankind Q. Whichofthefol llowingstatementscomesclosesttoyourpointofview? Breakdown by ideology Humans evolved over time, but through divine guidance Humans evolved over time, but through divine guidance Humans evolved through natural selection DK/ NR 4581914 0 20 40 60 80 100 Left

Centre Right 425174 0 20 40 60 80 100 Base: Thosewhosayhumans evolvedthroughnaturalselection Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. BASE: Canadians; March 1517, 2011 ( n= 984)

Origins of mankind: Canada versus US Q. Whichofthefol llowingstatementscomesclosesttoyourpointofview? EKOS (March 2011)

Gallup (December 2010) *

100 80 58 60 14198403816602040 Humans were created Humans evolved over Humans evolved DK/NR by God in the last time, but through through natural 10,000 years divine guidance

selection *Source: Gallup poll; December 1012, 2010 ( n=1,019) . Question worded as follows:

Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin and development of human beings: 1) Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God guided this process; 2) Human

beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God had no part in this process; or 3) God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so?

Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. BASE: Canadians; March 1517, 2011 ( n=

984)

Preferred source of personal guidance Q. Ifyouwerefacingadeeppersonalcrisis,whichofthefol llowingindividualswouldyouprefertoconsult? Breakdown by religious service attendance A priest, rabbi, or other religious leader A psychiatrist or other professional DK/ NR 157114 0 20 40 60 80 100 Never 4 6 Occasionally

50

Frequently

0 20 40 60 80 100 Base: Thosewhopreferapriest,rabbi, orotherreligiousleader Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. BASE: Canadians; March 1517, 2011 ( n= 984)

Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. 4.0 Limits to Knowledge and Understanding Lagged rebound effect on evidence and crime 1 in 4 Canadians are anti-science, anti-expertise Broad but mixed concerns about impacts of democracy and equality

P e r c e i v e d changes in violent crime rates Q. Overthepast10years,wouldyousaythatthecrimerateinCanadahasbeen. ... ? Breakdown by age Decreasing (13) Staying the same (4) Increasing (5-7) DK/ NR 4383029 0 20 40 60 80 100 Under 25 25-44 44-64

65 and over 55433118 0 20 40 60 80 100 Base:Thosewhosayincreasing Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. BASE: Canadians; March 1517, 2011 ( n= 984)

Tracking perceived changes in violent crime rates Q. Overthepast10years,wouldyousaythatthecrimerateinCanadahasbeen. ... ? 70 50 38% 30% 30 29% 10 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Decreasing (1-3) Staying the same (4) Increasing (5-7) Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. BASE: Canadians; most recent data point March 15-

17, 2011 (n= 984)

Attitudes towards climate change Q. Towhatextenttoyouagreeordisagreewiththefol llowingstatement: Idon tbelieveal llthistalkaboutgreenhouse gasemissionscausingglobalclimatechange. Disagree ( 13) Neither agree nor disagree ( 4) Agree ( 57) DK/ NR 126964 0 20 40 60 80 100 Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. BASE: Canadians; March 1517, 2011 ( n=

984)

Concerns over science and expertise Q. Towhatextentdoyouagreeordisagreewiththefol llowingstatements? Itreal llybothersmethathardscientificevidenceisn

tshapingpublicpolicytothedegreethatitshould be.

3 11 17 69

Iworrythattheruleofexpertsandprofessionalsproduceselitismandinequality.

4 39 22 36

Iamworriedthatscienceisgoingtoofarandishurtingsocietyratherthanhelpingit.

561 19 23 0% 25% 50%

75% 100% DK/NR Disagree (13) Neither agree nor disagree (4) Agree (57) Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. BASE: Canadians; March 1517, 2011 ( n= 984)

Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. 5.0 The Future and Conclusions The public strongly believes that intellectual-scientific approaches will dominate in the future Social media and Web 2.0 are pro-knowledge but eschew traditional vertical authority (anti-gate keeping)

P e r c e i v e d importance of hard evidence in decision making Q. Overal ll,doyouthinkthattheuseofhardevidenceandprofessionalexpertiseinpublicdecisionmak ingis/wil llbe moreorlessimportantthanitwas10yearsago/10yearsfromnow? 10 years ago 10 years from now 6433220 Less important (1-3) About the same (4) More important (5-7) DK/ NR 755317 100 80 60 40 20 0

0 20 40 60 80 100 Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. BASE: Canadians; March 1517, 2011 ( n= 984)

Use of social media in constructing knowledge and expertise Q. Towhatextenttoyouagreeordisagreewiththefol llowingstatement: InaneraofsocialmediasuchasFacebook, Twitter,andWikipedia,knowledgeandexpertisecanbeconstructedfromordinarycitizens. Disagree ( 13) Neither agree nor disagree ( 4) Agree ( 57) DK/ NR 3491732 0 20 40 60 80 100 Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. BASE: Canadians; March 15-

17, 2011 ( n= 984)

Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. Conclusions (i) Hard knowledge is seen as hugely important principle for societal decision making (trailing only democracy) There is a strong sense that knowledge, science, and expertise are undervalued Contested terrain revolves around relative salience of reason and knowledge versus moralism and certainty The fault lines are deep and these world views are relatively incompatible The rational-empirical view is much more prevalent, particularly among younger, more educated Canada There is a dramatic left-right split and it is also strongly connected to secula rism and religiosity

Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. Conclusions (ii) The recent political success of populism is paradoxical and may reflect low recognition and the weakness of the rational view to handle values The challenge to reason and knowledge comes from the political right; it is rooted in a search for certainty and morality and a discomfort with evidence and ambiguity Populism is viewed as an interruption, not a structural shift . Public conviction about the future . Demography forces favour educated . Lagged but rational rebound on crimes rates Future complicated by the digital generation and the flattening of intellectual authority

F O R M O R E I N F O R M A T I O N : F r a n k G r a v e s , P r e s i d e n t E K O S R e s e a r c h A s s o c i a t e s p . 6 1 3 . 2 3 5 . 7 2 1 5 e . f g r a v e s @ e k o s . c o m FORMOREINFORMATION: FrankGraves, PresidentEKOSResearchAssociatesp. 613.235.7215e. fgraves@ekos.com