Coin Toss Experiment Runs of Heads or Tails

Objectives of the project: Probability is the science of uncertainty, or randomness. Randomness is often considered the absence of pattern. Nonetheless, pattern does play a role in probability. For example averages of large numbers of coin tosses produce a pattern: Given a reasonable number of tosses you get about the same number of heads as tails. However, within the predictability of that number, there are always pockets of randomness. This exercise is intended: 1. To acquaint you with some basic rules of counting. 2. To acquaint you with the law of large numbers. 3. To acquaint you with MATHWORLD and Ask Dr. Math. Bonus: To reveal another interesting connection to Fibonacci numbers. Instructions for students: Step 1 (40 points). Before you begin, learn about the law of large numbers at http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/52799.html Describe this law.

Step 2. Lets use a random number generator. Go to http://www2.whidbey.net/ohmsmath/webwork/javascript/cointoss.htm

1.( 60 points) Collect all the data in a Spreadsheet program like Excel or OpenOffice Calc. a. Toss a coin with the random number generator 10 times by putting 10 in the blank after the question, How many single coin tosses? Record the proportion of heads. For example, if there are 4 heads out of 10 tosses, then record 0.4 Repeat and record 4 more times.

b. Toss the coin 100 times. Record the overall proportion of heads. Repeat and record 4 more times.

c. Toss the coin 1000 times. Record the overall proportion of heads. Repeat and record 4 more times.

2a. (30 points) Graph your results from part 1 a, b, and c, on the Spreadsheet (i.e. all 5 data points from 1a go on graph, Proportion of heads with 10 tosses, etc).

2b. (20 points) Compare the charts. Does the result of your experiment indicate the tendency to converge to any number? If so, explain why. If not, explain why you think it does not.

3. (50 points) To learn about the connection between Fibonacci numbers and coin tosses, go to MATHWORLD http://mathworld.wolfram.com/CoinTossing.html There you will discover that the probability that no two consecutive tails will occur in n tosses of a fair coin can be described in terms of Fibonacci numbers. The Fibonacci sequence is 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, ..etc., where each subsequent term of the sequence is the sum of the previous two terms. Recall that we can describe each number in the sequence by its position there. So F[1] = 1, F[3] = 2, F[6] = 8, etc.

a. Use the following formula to calculate the probability that no two consecutive tails will occur in 8 tosses of a fair coin: The probability that no two consecutive tails will occur in n tosses of a fair coin is given by F[n + 2]/2n.

In other words, calculate the number of times no two consecutive tails will occur in 8 tosses of a fair coin.

b. Test the formula in A of this step 3 by performing 10 experiments of tossing a fair coin 8 times. For each experiment, record the outcome (e.g., THTTHHHH) and observe if no sets of consecutive tails occur (e.g., in the before stated outcome a set does occur). After you have performed the experiment 10 times, divide the number of times no sets of consecutive tails occurred by 10 (the number of times you performed your experiment).

c. How close is the number you obtained in part B of this step 3 to the number you obtained in Part A of this step 3? Explain why there is a discrepancy (if any) between these two numbers. Hint: see http://mathworld.wolfram.com/LawofLargeNumbers.html