Residential Policy Review

Collingwoods Changing Demographics

Demographics 101
Birth Rate (CBR) - number of live births per year for every 1,000 people Death Rate (CDR) number of deaths per a year for every 1,000 people Natural Increase (NIR)- Percent growth per year, CBR minus CDR. Fertility Rate (TFR) - average number of children a woman will have Life expectancy predicted age that a normal person lives up to. Population Pyramids - graph the number of people alive in an age group - each year
people in an age group get one year older, some die, some leave and some new people arrive Immigration and Emigration

Demographics 101

The Great Depression World War 2 Ends The Baby Boom Baby Bust Boomer Echo Millennial Generation

Demographics 101

The Great Depression World War 2 Ends The Baby Boom Baby Bust Boomer Echo Millennial Generation

Aging and the Population Pyramid

Population increase to over 65 age groups larger than increase to under 15 age groups

Over 65

Under 15

Why is the population aging?

Life Expectancy is continuing to increase

The Baby Boom 1946-1965

Why is the population aging?

The Baby Bust - Declining Fertility Rates
Introduction of Effective Birth Control Increased Educational and Economic Opportunities for All Affluence and Security

Family Income 1951 - 1991 (1995 constant dollars)

$60,000.00 $50,000.00 $40,000.00 $30,000.00 $20,000.00 $10,000.00 $0.00
1951 1961 1971

1981

1991 1981 1991 $55,771.00

1951 Income $22,401.00

1961 $29,748.00

1971 $43,437.00

$54,214.00

Collingwoods Population Pyramid 2006

85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00%

Over 65

Collingwood has a comparatively older Collingwood population with fewer children and young adults
Under 15
8.00% 10.00%

- General Population Trends (aging and declining fertility) - Out Migration (lure of educational and employment opportunities elsewhere) - Attractiveness for Retirees and Recreational/Seasonal Residents

85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00%

8.00%

Ontario

10.00%

Population Distribution

Population Distribution

The Regional Perspective

age breakdown 0-14 15-64 65+ 15.62 63.85 20.53 14.17 60.91 24.92 13.11 62.27 24.62 19.52 65.65 14.83 21.30 67.82 10.88 20.78 70.48 8.74 18.18 68.26 13.56 median age 44.40 48.80 50.60 41.20 35.40 36.70 39.01 average household size 2.36 2.41 2.32 2.81 2.76 3.02 2.67

Collingwood Wasaga Beach Blue Mountains Clearview Barrie Bradford Ontario

Collingwood* and Ontario Age Profiles in 2031

Over 65 increases from 20.5% to about 32%
90+ 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4
0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00%

Collingwood Ontario

Under 15 decreases from 16% to about 14%

* using Grey County Percentages as approximation of Collingwood's age profile

A Cautionary Note

?
No, not at all
And in Collingwoods case going from 16% to 14% of the population still means more children since we are still growing.

Relatively Stable Numbers For Awhile

Characteristics of Seniors
General desire to age in place; Increasingly move due to health reasons Greater openness to apartments, garden suites; More likely to move to a rural area, including popular retirement destinations - lured by cheaper housing, lower crime rates and outdoor lifestyle Healthy, active and happy, in particular 65-74 age group Significant source of volunteers; Greater need and flexibility for public transportation More affluent than in the past (with exceptions) More concern for safety and accessibility

General Household Characteristics

Collingwood

General Household Characteristics

Collingwood Family Structure 1996 to 2006
35.00% 30.00% Percentage of Families 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% couple with children couple without children one person family lone parent and non-traditional

couple with children couple without children one person family one parent and non-traditional

1996
30.79% 27.24% 27.15% 14.82%

2001
27.54% 28.82% 28.67% 14.97%

2006
22.97% 31.58% 30.28% 15.24%

Market Response
Collingwoods Housing Stock and Building Trends

Housing Stock
1991 SinglesandSemis Townhomes Apartments 72.1 6.5 21.0 2006 69.6 7.1 23.0

Recent Building Permits

10year 60.4 28.3 11.4 5year 55.8 25.2 19.0

A variety of factors are likely involved with these figures the aging trend, fewer traditional families, seasonal recreational properties, desirability of Collingwood as a retirement destination, etc. Provincially, building permits for multiples overtook singles and semi-detached dwellings in 2008 with a projection from CMHC that they will account for 64% of all units to be constructed in 2011and Provincial intensification requirements are not supposed to kick in until 2015

New Housing and Neighbourhood Demands

Greater need for: dwelling types for smaller household sizes; housing which is accessible affordable housing and/or more flexible living arrangements;

New Housing and Neighbourhood Demands

Greater need for: closer services and amenities public transportation; neighbourhood walkability; social interaction; which leads us back to

Complete Communities/Neighbourhoods
meet peoples needs for daily living, throughout an entire lifetime, by providing convenient access to an appropriate mix of jobs, local services, a full range of housing, and community infrastructure including affordable housing, schools, recreation and open space;

provide convenient access to public transportation and options for safe non-motorized travel.

Complete Communities/Neighbourhoods
Shop

Work* Live

Worship

Learn* Play

Give

Compact Urban Form

higher densities neighbourhood supportive population (variety of land uses) infill and intensification;

Compact Urban Form

more housing choices; good urban design attractive, accessible, safe, and, functional

Next Steps
1. Data Collection Policy, Statistics, Land Use Information 2. Research and Analysis 3. Finalization of Growth Allocation (on hold - PDF) 4. Background Presentations
Residential Policy Review

5. Draft Policies 6. Review and Comment

Land Budget Complete Communities and Compact Urban Form Collingwoods Changing Demographics Infrastructure and Services