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Lumileds
Aixtron
CREE
OSRAM
OSRAM
Nitronex
45 rue Sainte Genevive, F-69006 Lyon, France Tel : +33 472 83 01 80 - Fax : +33 472 83 01 83 Web: http://www.yole.fr
2009
Yole Dveloppement
Lyon, France based market research and strategy consulting firm with 20 full time analysts analysts. Our fields of competence include:
MEMS, including microfluidics Compound Semiconductor (SiC, GaN AlN) (SiC GaN,
LED & Power Devices
Market and technical evaluations and forecasts Market, Market strategy and technical workshops Process cost evaluation & reverse costing Business strategy development
2009
Yole consultants provide Market Analysis, gy Technology Evaluation and Business Plan Assessment for clients along the entire value chain.
2009
Higher brightness LEDs have begun to address other promising markets like automotive, LCD backlight and general lighting. g g g
Low-end LED products account for 83% High-Brightness LEDs 15% Emerging Ultra High-Brightness products 2%
With continued development of a variety of technologies, high power LEDs with 150 lm/W converting more than 50% of input watts to light can be envisioned.
2009
Executive summary
2009
Specifications
Application pp markets
2009
LED Market
Facilities - CREE
Size and location
Corporate Headquarters
Cotco (China)
Production and packaging
2009
Facilities - LUMILEDS
Size and location
Best (Netherlands): R&D Tokyo: Sales
Marketing, Technical Marketing and Support
Penang (Malaysia):
packaging facility. The lines at this plant were the first to include warm white LEDs production in volume. This factory replaced the existing factory of LUMILEDS in 2005 and triple the 2005 capacity capability.
2009
Facilities - OSRAM
Size and location
Regensburg (Germany):
Headquarters and manufacturing main site
Penang (Malaysia):
Second factory for surfacemounted LEDs, high-power laser diodes and organic LEDs manufacturing. manufacturing Investment of 100-120M$ From 2008, Penang site will also be dedicated to LED dies manufacturing.
2009
10
2009
Solid State General Lighting market size estimates for 2012 range from $500 million to >$2 5 billion >$2.5 Range of possible LED market penetration:
Base case: Low performance, low price, low market penetration rate -> f more LEDs in a single lamp Technology breakthrough case: High performance, controlled price, high market penetration rate -> fewer LEDs in a single lamp >
2009
12
LED Performance
2009
LED technologies
1500
General Lighting
1000
RPTV LCD backlight
Car Headlamp
500
Pocket Projector
Head-up display
2007
2008
LED technologies
2009
14
> 2010
Average LED optical output power vs. heat generation at different current levels
100% 90%
80%
70% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
0% 20 mA 100 mA 350 mA 1000 mA
Heat Optical Power
The increasing of the input power produces more lumens, but lm/W ratio drops and so more heat is generated Thermal management is crucial for LED packaging
2009
15
LED technologies
Overall LED Performance luminous output power / wall-plug input power wall-plug
Epitaxy Front-End Back-End Packaging
LED die
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LED technologies
Expectations 70%
Today status: Global efficiency = 23% Expectation for the future: Global efficiency ~ 52%
% 75%
Extraction efficiency
90%
84%
Electrical efficiency
92%
60%
Internal Quantum efficiency
90%
0%
2009
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
17
LED technologies
LED Manufacturing
2009
LED technologies
Back-End level 1 l l
Sources: Yole Dveloppement
2009
19
Binning, Pick-and-place
Phosphor coating
Packaged LED Packaging, Housing LED technologies
LED lamp
2009
20
Regular LED
2009
21
Regular LED
Other BE 54.9% 54 9%
2009
22
Regular LED
Material
New growth substrates
Front-End
Photonic Crystals
Back-End
Laser Lift-Off Temporary bonding Phosphors
Packaging
Vf
Surface texturing
Colour
x Fl u
Dicing / Scribing
23
2009
LED technologies
2009
24
LED technologies
GaN/Sapphire
GaN/B-GaN/pAlN
H HB-LED
GaN/SiC GaN/Sapphire
Regular LED
2006
2009
2007
25
2010
2011
2012
GaN/ SiC
Pack. & test: $120
GaN / Sapphire
Pack. & test: $80
GaN/Si
Pack. & test: $80
Front-end $300
Front-end $300
Front-end $300
Epitaxy $300
Epitaxy $300
4 Sapphire: $150
4 Silicon: $ $25
Total: $1,720
Total: $830
Total: $705
2009
26
Cost Breakdown
2009
27
2009
28
29
Vf
Binning
Colour
x Flu
Binning refers to the classification of production yields. Each part is binned for 3 parameters: Flux: Luminous Flux (Brightness) Color: Dominant/Peak Wavelength or Correlated Color Temperature Vf: Forward Voltage f All binning is done at nominal current and at Tj =25 C 25
2009
30
Binning
Vf
Binning
Colour
x Flu
Binning operations result from a trade-off with the epitaxy process ti it time. Binning operations add substantial cost in the LED manufacturing process. f t i Too severe binning criteria on the 3 parameters lead to rejection of more than 90% of the LED dies dies. LED design has to be done to have as few bins as possible being critical to the application application. Vf is the easiest parameter to eliminate, so that binning should prioritize on Color OR Flux Flux.
2009
31
Binning
Conclusions
Market
LED backlightinga pplications are a price cutting game g g pp gg Automotive and LCD TV backlight growing General lighting: breakthroughs needed 150 lm/W at high current is threshold to penetrate this market segment A $1B market is expected after 2012 at LED device level
Large diameter: -> 6 (GaN/silicon, GaN/Glass, composite substrates) Monolithic white LED phosphor-free (Cermet: ZnO, CRHEA, Nanovation) AlN native substrates for UV-LED manufacturing Single GaN substrate
32
Conclusions