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MENA-1 THURSDAY MORNING ROUND-UP

UAE
FGBs 2Q2011 earnings up 1.7% Q-o-Q, despite new retail regulations Dana Gas gas production from the Khor Mor gas field reaches 300 million cfd Central banks foreign investments hit AED160 billion Etihad Airways 1H2011 revenue up 28% Y-o-Y

Kuwait
Parliament approves Kuwaits KWD19.4 billion budget

Qatar
QEWC and Marubeni ink agreement to start work on Omans Sur IPP Qafco inks deal with power firm Qtel inks HOA with Q.NBN to support nationwide fibre broadband network Doha mulling 2020 Olympics bid Qatari Diar buys marina on Spains Golden Coast Mannai Corporation appoints Mahmoud Masoud as CFO

Bahrain
Ahli United Bank reports 20% growth in 2Q2011 earnings

EFG Hermes Research


MENA Quarterly Strategy - 3Q2011: Think Local - 13 July 2011 MENA Telecom Preview Note - 2Q2011 Pre-Call: Better Performance after a Weak 1Q2011 - 13 July 2011 UAE Real Estate Sector Note - 2Q2011 Preview: The Handover of Keys Remains in Focus - 13 July 2011 Bank Muscat - 2Q2011 Results: Weaker Revenues, But Strong Balance Sheet Growth - Flash Note - 13 July 2011

Agenda
Qatar Thu 14 July >> Vodafone Qatar (VFQ) 2Q2011 results Sun 17 July >> Qatar Insurance Company 2Q2011 results Mon 18 July >> Al Khalij Commercial Bank (Al Khaliji) 2Q2011 results Mon 18 July >> Ahli Bank 2Q2011 results Tue 19 July >> Nakilat 2Q2011 results Tue 19 July >> Doha Bank 2Q2011 results Wed 20 July >> Qatar Islamic Bank (QIB) 2Q2011 results Wed 20 July >> Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development Company 2Q2011 results Thu 21 July >> Gulf Warehousing 2Q2011 results Thu 21 July >> UDC 2Q2011 results Sun 24 July >> Ahli Bank press conference Sun 24 July >> Qatar Navigation 2Q2011 results Sun 24 July >> Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Company 2Q2011 results Sun 24 July >> Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIB) 2Q2011 results Sun 24 July >> Islamic Holding Company BOD meeting Mon 25 July >> Nakilat press conference Tue 26 July >> Al Khalij Commercial Bank (Al Khaliji) press conference Wed 27 July >> Dlala Holding Company 2Q2011 results Wed 27 July >> Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQ) 2Q2011 results Thu 28 July >> Qatar National Bank 1H2011 press conference Thu 28 July >> Al Khalij Holding Company 2Q2011 results Sun 31 July >> Qatar Oman Investment Company 2Q2011 results

Sun 31 July >> Medicare Group 2Q2011 results Mon 1 August >> The National Leasing Holding Company 1H2011 press conference Tue 2 August >> Masraf Al Rayan 2Q2011 results Wed 3 August >> Qatar National Cement Company 2Q2011 results Tue 9 August >> Masraf Al Rayan press conference Sun 14 August >> Qtel 2Q2011 results Sun 14 August >> Doha Insurance 2Q2011 results

UAE News
FGBs 2Q2011 earnings up 1.7% Q-o-Q, despite new retail regulations First Gulf Bank (FGB) [FGB.AD] reported a net profit of AED890 million for 2Q2011 (EPS: AED0.59), up 1.7% Q-oQ and 13.1% Y-o-Y. The net interest income growth trend improved in 2Q2011, rising 6.5% Q-o-Q to AED1,220 million, up from 3.7% Q-o-Q in 1Q2011, supported by loan growth and some estimated improvement in net interest spreads. Net Interest Income was marginally higher than our forecast of AED1,200 million. Non-interest income declined 18% Q-o-Q to AED368 million. As expected, fee income was hit by revised retail regulations, declining 29% Q-o-Q to AED291 million in 2Q2011 and compared to an average of AED386 million in the preceding four quarters. Even though operating income was marginally lower, owing to higher operating expenses, a 10.5% Q-o-Q decline in provisions offset the impact. Earnings were lower than our expectations of AED1,043 million (consensus estimate was AED873 million), mainly due to higher-than-expected provisions. We were expecting a sharp Q-o-Q decline in provisions to AED280 million, but the actual drop in provisions was moderate, as they came in at AED411 million. FGBs asset quality is showing encouraging signs, as even though provisions continue to be relatively high with 2Q2011 provisions remaining flat Y-o-Y at AED411 million, they declined 10.5% Q-o-Q. Meanwhile, the NPL ratio dropped 20 bps to 3.50% in 2Q2011 and the NPL coverage improved to 102% from 97% in 1Q2011. (Companys Press Release, Murad Ansari, Shabbir Malik) FGB: AED17.65, Rating: Buy, FV: AED24.30, MCap: USD7,249 million, FGB UH / FGB.AD Dana Gas gas production from the Khor Mor gas field reaches 300 million cfd Dana Gas (DANA.AD) and its partners, which include Crescent Petroleum, are currently producing around 300 million cubic feet of gas per day from the Khor Mor gas field in the Northern Iraqi Kurdistan region, Crescent Petroleums project director, Thomas Watts, was quoted as saying. We will increase [gas output from Khor Mor] in conjunction with plans of the [Kurdish] oil ministry to satisfy increasing demand, Watts explained. Dana Gas and its partners, Crescent Petroleum, Austrias OMV AG and Hungarys MOL, have invested around USD850 million in Iraqi Kurdistan. Pearl Petroleum, the entity that supplies gas to regional power plants and sells the extracted liquids and condensates (40% owned by Dana Gas), has so far received USD37 million for January, February and March gas production this year. Dana Gas outstanding receivables from Kurdistan stood at USD156 million as at the end of 1Q2011, up from USD115 million as at the end of 2010, as the company has not been paid for the sale of its condensate from the Kurdistan Regional Government since 4Q2010. The company has announced last year that it will sell condensate to a third party in Kurdistan to mitigate its exposure to the Kurdistan Regional Government. On a separate note, Crescent Petroleum, Dana Gass parent company, announced that it expects an arbitration tribunal to issue a decision in February 2012 on its natural gas dispute with the National Iranian Oil Company, the companys CEO was quoted as saying. We currently do not include Dana Gas UAE operations (the Iranian gas deal) in our forecasts and valuation for the company, given the long-standing dispute. (Zawya Dow Jones, Abid Riaz, Nadine Hassouna) Dana Gas: AED0.62, Rating: Buy, FV: AED1.04, MCap: USD1,115 million, DANA UH / DANA.AD Central banks foreign investments hit AED160 billion Total investments of the Central Bank of the UAE in foreign markets have reached AED160 billion, most of which in US dollar, Al Ittihad daily reported on 13 July 2011. A total of AED82.6 billion is invested in guaranteed securities issued by foreign governments, while the remaining AED77.4 billion is in deposits, the paper reports, citing Saif Al Shamsi, Senior Executive Director of Treasury at the Central Bank of the UAE. (Zawya Dow Jones) Etihad Airways 1H2011 revenue up 28% Y-o-Y Etihad Airways said on 13 July 2011 that its revenue in 1H2011 were up 28% Y-o-Y to USD1.72 billion, as passenger and cargo traffic increased, putting the carrier on track to meet its break-even goal in 2011 and its profitability target for 2012. Passenger revenues rose 21% Y-o-Y in 1H2011, on the back of a 14% jump in passenger numbers to 3.8 million and a 5% improvement in passenger yield. (Zawya Dow Jones)

Kuwait News

Parliament approves Kuwaits KWD19.4 billion budget Kuwaits parliament approved on Wednesday a state budget of KWD19.4 billion for FY2012. This is the largest budget since 2003 and is 19% higher Y-o-Y. The budget proposal for the current fiscal year, which started in April, was supported by 39 votes in a 50-member assembly, while 20 lawmakers opposed the budget. Parliaments budget committee has opposed the governments earlier plan to raise spending by an additional KWD1.8 billion, mainly on wage and benefit increases for Kuwaiti citizens. We maintain our forecast for actual government expenditure increase at 14.0% for FY2011-2012, with Kuwaits realised spending level continuing to be below the budgeted amount, especially on the investment side. Our 14.0% increase in expenditure forecast for FY2011-2012 will still be an acceleration in government spending. (Arabian Business, Monica Malik)

Qatar News
QEWC and Marubeni ink agreement to start work on Omans Sur IPP A consortium led by Qatar Electricity & Water Company (QEWC) [QEWC.QA] and Marubeni Corporation announced that it has signed an agreement to set up a 2,000 megawatts (MW) gas-propelled power plant in Oman, The Gulf Times reported. QEWC and Marubeni, in partnership with Chubu Electric and Multitech, signed a deal with Oman Power & Water Procurement Co. (OPWP) to build the independent power project (IPP) at Sur in the northeast of Oman, the companies said in a joint statement. The deals, signed by the consortium and related parties, consist of a power purchase agreement with the OPWP, a connection agreement with Oman Electricity Transmission Company, a project founders agreement signed with the Electricity Holding Company, a natural gas sales agreement with the Ministry of Oil & Gas in Oman and an usufruct agreement with the Public Establishment for Industrial Estates, according to the statement. The Sur IPP will have a power generation capacity of 2,000 megawatts (MW), upon completion in 2014. The plant has total estimated investment costs of OMR700 million (USD1.82 billion) and the first 433 MW of capacity is expected to come online by April 2013. This announcement comes in line with QEWCs strategy to expand outside of Qatar, which currently has a power surplus of over 2,500 megawatts. The companys domestic expansion plan was completed with the full commissioning of the Ras Girtas plant (2,730 MW power generation capacity and 63 million imperial gallons of water per day) in April 2011. Given the current electricity surplus in Qatar, we dont expect further capacity to come on stream domestically before 2014, as the company will seek to expand its Ras Girtas plant. Meanwhile, QEWCs focus will be on seeking greenfield and acquisitions opportunities internationally, including the Middle East and Asia. The company is close to complete a deal to acquire a stake in a Jordanian power plant and is currently bidding for the Hassyan IPP in Dubai. Given the limited available details on these expansion plans, our model currently does not factor in additional growth from the companys international expansion strategy, which should provide further upside potential to our numbers. We forecast QEWC will generate free cash flows of more than QAR2.5 billion per annum in 2012-2016 (given the completion of its announced domestic capex programme), which should support its expansion plans. We reiterate our Buy rating on the stock, given that our fair value (FV) of QAR183.20/share provides significant upside potential to the current share price. (Zawya Dow Jones, The Gulf Times, Abid Riaz, Nadine Hassouna) QEWC: QAR141.00, Rating: Buy, FV: QAR183.20, MCap: USD3,874 million, QEWC QD / QEWC.QA Qafco inks deal with power firm Qatar Fertilizer Company, a subsidiary of Industries Qatar (IQ) [IQCD.QA], announced that it has signed an agreement to supply about 13,000 tonnes of aqueous ammonia annually to Mesaieed Power Company, The Gulf Times reported. The aqueous ammonia solution will be used in the power generators at the Mesaieed power plant. (The Gulf Times) Industries Qatar: QAR139.60, Rating: Buy, FV: QAR170.00, MCap: USD21,093 million, IQCD.QA / IQCD QD Qtel inks HOA with Q.NBN to support nationwide fibre broadband network Qatar Telecom (Qtel) [QTEL.QA] and Qatar Nation Broadband Network Company (Q.NBN) announced that they have signed a heads of agreement (HOA) to provide high-speed broadband services to 95% of households and 100% of government and businesses in Qatar by 2015, Qatar News Agency reported. The new fibre network, to be built by Q.NBN Company, will accelerate fibre penetration to homes and businesses in Qatar, thus enabling telecom operators to more quickly bring the next generation of broadband services to consumers in Qatar, the companies said in a joint press release. (Qatar News Agency) Qatar Telecom: QAR154.40, Rating: Buy, FV: QAR174.50, MCap: USD7,465 million, QTEL QD / QTEL.QA Doha mulling 2020 Olympics bid

Qatar is interested in hosting the 2020 summer games, Olympic Council of Asia President Sheikh Ahmad Al-Fahad AlSabah said on 13 July 2011. With less than two months before the deadline for applications, only Rome has been officially confirmed, with Spains Madrid unveiling yet another bid on 13 July 2011 that still needs to be approved by city legislators in a week. (Trade Arabia) Qatari Diar buys marina on Spains Golden Coast Qatari Diar, fully owned by Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), said that it has purchased the Port Tarraco Marina in north eastern Spain through its subsidiary, Qatari Diar Marina Tarragona (QDMT). The port is located in Tarragona, approximately 95km south of Barcelona, and will be on the few marinas in the western Mediterranean to offer deep water berthing for large, sophisticated super, mega, and giga yachts. The value of the deal is unknown. (The Gulf Times) Mannai Corporation appoints Mahmoud Masoud as CFO Mannai Corporation (MCCS.QA) announced that it has appointed Mr. Mahmoud Masoud as Chief Financial Officer (CFO), The Peninsula Qatar reported. Mr. Masoud has over 25 years of diverse audit and finance experience. He served as a board member and CFO at DHL Express, UK and Ireland, prior to joining Mannai. (The Peninsula Qatar)

Bahrain News
Ahli United Bank reports 20% growth in 2Q2011 earnings Ahli United Bank (AUBB.BH) reported a profit of USD84.4 million for 2Q2011, which was 20% higher Y-o-Y. For 1H2011, the banks net profit was USD162 million, an increase of 19% Y-o-Y. The NPL ratio remained stable at 2.4%, while the NPL coverage improved to 128% Y-o-Y. (Al Watan)

EFG Hermes Research


MENA Quarterly Strategy - 3Q2011: Think Local - 13 July 2011 Global Cycle Has Peaked; Shift to Stocks Geared to Domestic Demand: The global economic cycle has likely peaked, in our view. Investors in MENA should reduce their exposure to stocks that are highly geared to the global cycle in favour of those with greater exposure to domestic demand, in our view. We expect the MENA benchmark to return 5% to 0% in 3Q2011, and we recommend exposure to UNB, BSF and IQ as our most favoured names in the MENA Top 20 List. Breaking down MENA earnings growth in 2012-2013, we find that banks and other domestically geared stocks will likely contribute to the majority of earnings growth in 2012-2013, following strong materials earnings growth in 2011. Aprils Shift into Banks, away from Materials Stocks, Has Worked Well: Our April call for investors to shift into banks and away from materials stocks has broadly worked in our favour. Petrochemicals stocks peaked in April and have since been rangebound. They may respond well to 2Q2011 results, but we feel this effect will be temporary. UAE banks have done well for us, although Saudi Arabian banks have disappointed since April. However, we feel that Saudi Arabian banks should perform better in 2H2011, and we have doubled our allocation to the sector, adding Samba Financial to our MENA Top 20 List. Add Domestic Demand Exposure Through Saudi Ceramics and UP: For exposure to domestic demand, we include Saudi Ceramics Company (SCC) and Union Properties (UP) into the MENA Top 20 List. Ongoing capacity additions are a key driver for earnings growth at SCC, and recent share price weakness allows for an attractive entry point, in our view. We view UP as a beneficiary of selective improvements being seen in its residential real estate portfolio. Additionally, there is potential for previous years achieved sales to lead to a surprise in 2Q2011 upon the completion of centrally located Dubai deliveries. Move Qatar Back to Overweight as MSCI Overhang is Removed: With the overhang of MSCIs market classification review out of the way, we upgrade Qatar to Overweight from Neutral. We believe that Qatars valuation discount to MENA will move to being at least in line with the region. While a premium is warranted, the market may struggle to achieve this without an MSCI EM upgrade. We match this upgrade by including IQ in our MENA Top 20 List. Our thematic shift into banks from petrochemicals remains in place; IQs inclusion is driven by our expectations of high urea prices in 2H2011 and an attractive valuation after recent weakness. Introduce Stock Screens for Bottom-Up Idea Generation: We have run three screens to complement our bottom-up stock picking analysis to help generate defensive ideas. These screens confirm 12 of the stocks that are in our revised MENA Top 20 List and support our inclusion of IQ and Saudi Ceramics. The first screen finds stocks trading at a significant discount on an estimated P/BV basis relative to expected ROEs; the second looks for value names by

focusing on cash-generative stocks with low leverage; and the third highlights stocks that have the highest stability in EBITDA margins (historic and forecasted), coupled with modest revenue growth. (Fahd Iqbal, Simon Kitchen) MENA Telecom Preview Note - 2Q2011 Pre-Call: Better Performance after a Weak 1Q2011 - 13 July 2011 Collective Earnings up 12% Q-o-Q: We expect nearly all of the 12 companies under our telecoms coverage to report an increase in operational earnings (excluding non-operational one-offs) in 2Q2011, as the disruption to operational performance as a result of socio-political instability declined during the quarter. We estimate collective earnings will have increased 12% Q-o-Q to USD2.1 billion in 2Q2011. Top Picks: Reiterate Mobily, Add TE, Drop Qtel: We continue to favour Mobily, as we believe that it faces limited downside risks compared to other MENA telecom companies. We remove Qtel from our top picks list, as the share price increased 29% since early March 2011, and given the limited upside potential that our fair value (FV) currently offers over the market price. On the other hand, Telecom Egypt (TE) now appears cheap, after the share price declined 17% in 2Q2011, trading at an estimated 9.1x 2011 P/E and 2.8x EV/EBITDA. We believe that downside risk related to possible further salary increases is more than priced in, and that a further share price decline would represent a good entry point. TE, in our view, remains one of the few defensive stocks in Egypt, supported by its high dividend and FCF yields. Good Calls: Qtel Share Price up 13%, Zain down 21%: The best performer in our telecom coverage in 2Q2011 was Qtel, as its share price rallied 13% during the quarter, supporting our Buy call on the stock (Qtel has been one of our top picks since November 2010). Zain Group was the worst performer during the quarter, seeing its share price falling 21% after deal talks with Etisalat ended. This also supports our continued Sell call. (Marise Ananian, Nadine Ghobrial, Omar Maher) UAE Real Estate Sector Note - 2Q2011 Preview: The Handover of Keys Remains in Focus - 13 July 2011 Developers Likely to Report Results During Last Week of July: We note that reporting dates for the UAE developers for 2Q2011 results have historically fallen in the period between the last week of July and the first week of August. However, the Holy Month of Ramadan (likely commencing on 1 August 2011) will fall within the stipulated results disclosure window (45 days post quarter-end). Hence, we expect this may prompt earlier disclosure starting in the fourth week of July. Emaar Properties: Commercial Space to Drive 2Q2011 Property Sales: We forecast revenues of AED1,875 million and net income of AED287 million (AED459 million ex-Dubai Bank write-off) for Emaar for 2Q2011, driven mainly by handover of commercial space in Dubai. We forecast a slightly weaker recurring income stream, particularly from hotels, relative to an exceptional 1Q2011. We expect AED296 million in hospitality revenue and AED494 million in rental income. We note that we factor in a AED172 million write-off relating to Emaars stake in Dubai Bank following the latters dilutive takeover by the Dubai government. Union Properties: DIFC Deliveries Continue, Potential for Upside Risk: We expect 2Q2011 revenues of AED1,269 million and a net loss of AED413 million. UPs top line should be bolstered by the ongoing delivery of properties within the DIFC. Given the nearing completion of unit handovers in the DIFC, we highlight upside potential in 2Q2011s results relating to greater-than-expected sales across the projects. Having achieved greater sales at higher average pricing would directly and positively impact our valuation. We note that UP conducts its investment properties valuation exercise semi-annually, and hence we expect cAED524 million of revaluation losses to be booked in 2Q2011. We reiterate, however, the significant forecast risk relating to any revaluation losses booked during the quarter. Aldar Properties: Framework Implementation Continues, Land Sale Likely: We forecast AED2,316 million in revenues and net income of AED816 million for 2Q2011. We expect land sales from Yas Island plots to materialise during the quarter. We note that the land plot sale forms a portion of the cAED4.4 billion in expected land sales to the Abu Dhabi government as part of Aldars financial framework implementation. We also expect the continuation of unit deliveries from Raha Beach. We expect Aldar's recurring income stream to decrease Q-o-Q to AED318 million in 2Q2011 due namely to lower activity in Aldars hospitality portfolio. Sorouh Real Estate: Strong Top Line Expected Post-Disappointing 1Q2011: We forecast revenue and earnings of AED1,152 million and AED180 million, respectively, for Sorouh. We note that Sorouhs 1Q2011 results disappointed versus consensus and our estimates (which were well below consensus) due to delays in deliveries of properties within Sun & Sky. We expect Sorouh to have continued with commercial/retail space delivery in 2Q2011, while also commencing residential unit deliveries, hence supporting our top line expectation. (Jad Abbas) Bank Muscat - 2Q2011 Results: Weaker Revenues, But Strong Balance Sheet Growth - Flash Note - 13 July 2011 2Q2011 Earnings up 5.5% Q-o-Q, Ahead of Our Estimate: Bank Muscat reported 2Q2011 earnings of OMR29.4 million, 5.5% higher Q-o-Q and 17% above our estimate of OMR25.1 million. Earnings from banking operations were,

however, broadly in line with our forecast. While detailed results are currently not available, we believe that the earnings beat is likely to have been driven by a stronger-than-expected decline in provisioning costs. We will be reviewing our estimates for Bank Muscat once detailed results are released. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock, with our fair value (FV) of OMR0.810/share implying 7.4% upside potential. Revenues Decline 8% Q-o-Q; Net Interest Spreads Shrink: Net interest income declined 3.0% Q-o-Q, despite strong loan growth, suggesting that net interest spreads contracted in 2Q2011. This is in contrast to a sharp rise in net interest spreads in 1Q2011 on falling funding costs. We estimate that strong growth in deposits and CDs primarily led to higher funding costs due to the expanded funding base. Non-interest income declined 19% Q-o-Q, as the impact of one-off gains in fee and forex income in the previous two quarters normalised. Bank Muscat had booked strong advisory business fee income in 1Q2011. Provisions Surprise; BMI Still a Drag on Earnings: We estimate that Bank Muscat booked total provision of cOMR6.0 million, 41% lower Q-o-Q. While gross credit impairments of OMR12.6 million were broadly stable Q-o-Q, we believe that there were strong recoveries from previously classified NPLs. We estimate that BMI remained a drag on 2Q2011 earnings, with Bank Muscats estimated share of losses from associates of cOMR1.8 million. Loans Rise 6.7% Q-o-Q; Funding Grows 14.4% Q-o-Q: Loan growth recovered sharply after relatively muted growth in 1Q2011 driven by a mix of corporate and retail lending. Retail loan growth is likely to have picked up strongly, in our view, after the increase in salaries and higher employment levels for Omani nationals. Growth in funding (deposits and CDs) was also much stronger than expected, but weighed on the banks net interest spreads. (Murad Ansari)
[Note EFG Hermes is not responsible for the accuracy of news items taken from other media.] _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Our investment recommendations take into account both risk and expected return. We base our fair value estimate on a fundamental analysis of the companys future prospects, after having taken perceived risk into consideration. We have conducted extensive research to arrive at our investment recommendations and fair value estimates for the company or companies mentioned in this report. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that EFG Hermes believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Readers should understand that financial projections, fair value estimates and statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This research report is prepared for general circulation and is intended for general information purposes only. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. It is not tailored to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any specific person that may receive this report. We strongly advise potential investors to seek financial guidance when determining whether an investment is appropriate to their needs. No part of this document may be reproduced without the written permission of EFG Hermes. EFG Hermes (main office), Building No. B129, Phase 3, Smart Village km 28 Cairo Alexandria Road, Egypt tel.: +20 2 3535 6140 | Fax: +20 2 3537 0939 EFG Hermes (UAE office), Level 6, The Gate, West Wing, DIFC Dubai - UAE tel +971 4 363 4000 | fax +971 4 362 1170 EFG Hermes (Saudi office), Kingdom Tower, 54th floor, Riyadh - Saudi Arabia tel +9661 211 0046 | fax +9661 211 0049 EFG Hermes (Qatar office) Al-Fardan Towers, Office Tower, 7th floor, West Bay, Doha - Qatar tel +974 409 3888 | fax +974 421 3499 Website: www.efg-hermes.com Bloomberg: EFGH | Reuters pages: EFGS .HRMS .EFGI .HFISMCAP .HFIDOM