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Executive Summary: Al Qaeda is now best seen as a “Movement” and is currently highly unlikely
to be anything more than a loose coalition of terrorist groups. Lacking central operating authority, a
diffuse mission and ideology combined with an inconsistency in strategic plans, the original Al
Qaeda leadership has lost control over the agenda that drives the Movement as a whole. As each
sub-group in the Movement pursues its own plans, rifts in the Movement have begun to show.
Analytical Confidence: High
• Example: Though AQP’s Al-Zawahiri attempted to take credit for the inspiration of the
London underground bombings,4 leaked reporting from investigations of the incident by the
British government indicates that the attackers conceived and conducted the operation
completely independently from AQP leadership.5
Even in cases where direct ties remain between AQP and other groups in the Movement, AQP does
not dictate attack targets and methods to the other factions. Thus, while the other factions may
consult or receive support from AQP leadership, each group carries out its attacks independently.
• Examples: Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) likely continues6 to enjoy a relationship of mutual benefit
with AQP, but it has likely never been subservient to it and has chosen its own targets.7
• Though the East Turkestan Islamic Movement has loose ties to AQP and has attempted a
global jihadist-type attack in Kyrgyzstan, it functions beyond AQP’s control.8
Footnotes are embedded with a direct hyperlink to each information source. Thus, these footnotes can be accessed using the
electronic version of this document or accessed and printed at http://mciisodnichallenge.blogspot.com/2008/09/reference.html. In-
text hyperlinks lead to additional data visualizations or articles that explain concepts with which the reader may not be familiar.
2
Although jihadists have immortalized many of Al Qaeda’s operational techniques online,9 their
interpretation and execution are not universally consistent or controlled. For example, jihadist
groups operating in Iraq and
Central Asia utilize tactics that
differ starkly from those of AQP.
10
• Examples: Even since swearing its allegiance to Al Qaeda, Al Qaeda in the Islamic
Maghreb almost exclusively targeted installations of the Algerian government, 14 which the
group seeks to overthrow.15
• The 2004 Madrid train bombings were not a part of any strategic vision from AQP
leadership. Instead, the attacks were a result of that cell’s assumption that influencing a local
election to sway against US policy in Iraq would benefit the global jihadist cause.16
The lack of a common strategic plan is also evidenced by the conflicts between factions in the
Movement. AQP strongly disapproved of AQI’s tactics, as evidenced by al-Zawahiri’s letter to al-
Zarqawi which was recovered after the latter’s death.17 Clashes over affiliation with the Movement
have also arisen within individual groups, such as the tension in recent years that has:
Notes on Tools & Techniques: To produce this analysis, the team utilized several interesting tools
and techniques to gather and process data. Most of the tools used are available for free online.
• To utilize the concept of the ‘Web 2.0’ as an interactive environment, the team used
‘crowdsourcing’ for collection, utilizing mass email and blogging to produce open calls for
resources, the team broadened its take of high-quality sources. Responses came from
Terrorism.com, the International Relations and Security Network in Zurich, King’s College
in London, and MCIIS students and alumni, and other sources.
• The team also used Deep Web search engines such as Turbo 10 and Kartoo.
• A project collection blog allowed analysts to upload, catalog, and retrieve data at any time.
• Palo Alto Research Center’s Analysis of Competing Hypothesis software helped structure
the team’s findings.
• To visualize the analyzed data, the team used several conceptual modeling and visualization
programs, including i2 Analyst Notebook, and bubbl.us. A video was also produced using
online media from YouTube and Google Images and video production software.