Pencil Sales Data - Weigthed Moving Average over 6 Periods

Year Period Sales Forecast (WMA6)

1 1 299.9
2 177.4
3 221.1
4 147.5
5 215.3
6 212.0
7 244.3 208.37157496148
8 259.7 189.1311745468
9 231.0 229.62778287216
10 154.7 235.21172725311
11 345.8 232.70736840102
12 230.4 226.90214145604
2 13 234.3 261.85928410731
14 188.3 214.9694105897
15 248.7 275.04694422532
16 320.0 217.68371614299
17 218.6 241.84409557159
18 334.3 246.37756210752
19 288.4 255.87443872669
20 354.5 308.54141816287
21 338.9 272.34829302877
22 446.7 335.89273542793
23 309.7 330.8972803398
24 406.8 380.94546644379
3 25 384.7 349.47895647855
26 503.7 408.13941509761
27 368.6 368.60000466934
28 512.0 434.71798631509
29 486.7 407.33215895179
30 504.3 487.07796178461
31 667.4 443.26201229435
32 469.6 521.29637959111
33 768.6 551.92083933668
34 539.7 539.70626146645
35 664.7 664.70069721759
36 733.8 553.6138757732
4 37 697.6824170767

Mean absolute deviation

 Absolute Squared Absolute
error error % error Period Weight
t-6 0.00
t-5 0.00
t-4 0.41
t-3 0.13
t-2 0.36
t-1 0.10
35.928425038524 1290.8517257489 0.1470668237353 1.00
70.568825453201 4979.9591258444 0.2717320964698
1.3722171278407 1.8829798459393 0.0059403338868
80.511727253107 6482.1382252788 0.5204377973698
113.09263159898 12789.943321982 0.3270463608993
3.4978585439644 12.235014393585 0.0151816777082
900.0
27.559284107308 759.51414050733 0.1176239185118
26.6694105897 711.25746120201 0.1416325575661 800.0
26.346944225322 694.16147001221 0.1059386579225 700.0
102.31628385701 10468.621942309 0.3197383870532
600.0
23.244095571593 540.28797894134 0.1063316357346
87.922437892483 7730.3550849575 0.2630046003365 500.0
32.525561273316 1057.9121361442 0.1127793386731 400.0
45.958581837131 2112.1912444803 0.1296433902317
300.0
66.551706971229 4429.1297007843 0.1963756475988
110.80726457208 12278.249881946 0.2480574537096 200.0
21.197280339796 449.32469380391 0.0684445603481 100.0
25.854533556214 668.45690540941 0.0635558838648
0.0
35.221043521452 1240.52190674 0.0915545711501 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
95.560584902387 9131.8253868862 0.1897172620655
4.669338978E-06 2.180272649E-11 1.266776717E-08
77.282013684911 5972.5096391947 0.1509414329783
79.367841048208 6299.2541926536 0.1630734354802
17.222038215393 296.59860029244 0.0341503831358
224.13798770565 50237.837532737 0.3358375602422
51.69637959111 2672.5156628281 0.1100859872042
216.67916066332 46949.858665761 0.2819140784066
0.0062614664529 3.920596214E-05 1.160175366E-05
0.0006972175886 4.861123658E-07 1.048920699E-06
180.1861242268 32467.039363875 0.2455520907969

62.642840224047 7424.1478008084 0.1587790195474

MAD MSE MAPE
Mean absolute deviation
Mean squared error
Mean absolute percent error
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37