Monthly Energy Demand k=12 season+trend

Year Month Demand t CMA(12) S. ratio S. Index

1 1 108777 1 0.8745554
2 110568 2 0.83551038
3 122589 3 0.89892969
4 124897 4 0.92780596
5 148759 5 1.05886906
6 159999 6 1.03929705
7 164897 7 138775.500 1.18822847 1.16642229
8 172879 8 139242.583 1.24156703 1.16189021
9 149874 9 139328.833 1.07568546 1.03674493
10 141789 10 139327.042 1.01767036 1.05170267
11 135663 11 139846.875 0.97008246 0.98378571
12 120555 12 140387.583 0.85872979 0.96731456
2 1 116897 13 141072.458 0.82863091 0.8745554
2 113658 14 141986.458 0.80048479 0.83551038
3 121569 15 142655.875 0.85218362 0.89892969
4 125874 16 143574.250 0.8767171 0.92780596
5 160258 17 144401.417 1.10980906 1.05886906
6 161477 18 145409.333 1.11049956 1.03929705
7 179856 19 146699.417 1.22601715 1.16642229
8 179856 20 147522.542 1.21917639 1.16189021
9 158963 21 148233.375 1.07238333 1.03674493
10 154741 22 149088.125 1.03791633 1.05170267
11 142563 23 149761.292 0.9519349 0.98378571
12 137845 24 149951.042 0.91926671 0.96731456
3 1 130569 25 149943.708 0.87078679 0.8745554
2 119741 26 150023.708 0.79814718 0.83551038
3 132546 27 150025.083 0.88349226 0.89892969
4 135411 28 150608.667 0.89909169 0.92780596
5 166877 29 151574.583 1.10095635 1.05886906
6 159412 30 152121.333 1.04792666 1.03929705
7 181745 31 152701.750 1.19019592 1.16642229
8 179887 32 153540.042 1.17159666 1.16189021
9 158965 33 154041.333 1.03196328 1.03674493
10 168745 34 154800.417 1.09008105 1.05170267
11 151741 35 155604.375 0.97517181 0.98378571
12 141789 36 156109.958 0.90826365 0.96731456
4 1 140555 37 157141.083 0.89445101 0.8745554
2 129874 38 157889.292 0.8225637 0.83551038
3 134444 39 158507.958 0.84818454 0.89892969
4 151731 40 159477.375 0.9514265 0.92780596
5 169852 41 160144.417 1.06061768 1.05886906
6 168571 42 161115.750 1.04627263 1.03929705
7 197333 43 161966.125 1.2183597 1.16642229
8 182256 44 162353.583 1.12258686 1.16189021
9 171444 45 163115.125 1.05106133 1.03674493
10 179532 46 164369.792 1.09224449 1.05170267
 11 156963 47 165359.458 0.94922299 0.98378571
12 159879 48 164077.792 0.97440975 0.96731456
5 1 142874 49 163141.917 0.87576512 0.8745554
2 136854 50 164005.500 0.83444763 0.83551038
3 145741 51 164862.458 0.88401569 0.89892969
4 170546 52 165690.208 1.02930645 0.92780596
5 174789 53 166428.292 1.0502361 1.05886906
6 132874 54 167512.000 0.79322078 1.03929705
7 210569 55 168718.292 1.24805081 1.16642229
8 189746 56 169374.875 1.12027241 1.16189021
9 184521 57 169921.333 1.08592015 1.03674493
10 186321 58 169897.125 1.09666953 1.05170267
11 167888 59 169687.125 0.9893974 0.98378571
12 174963 60 172461.250 1.01450616 0.96731456
6 1 156741 61 174991.375 0.895707 0.8745554
2 138745 62 175979.667 0.78841495 0.83551038
3 156965 63 177361.458 0.88500062 0.89892969
4 158741 64 177636.500 0.89362828 0.92780596
5 181554 65 178066.708 1.01958419 1.05886906
6 192688 66 179237.583 1.07504239 1.03929705
7 211478 67 181188.792 1.16716933 1.16642229
8 212556 68 183451.083 1.15865219 1.16189021
9 194874 69 185176.042 1.05237156 1.03674493
10 182569 70 186135.292 0.98084033 1.05170267
11 181965 71 186944.167 0.97336549 0.98378571
12 188987 72 188080.875 1.00481774 0.96731456
7 1 189546 73 188575.375 1.00514715 0.8745554
2 160235 74 189038.542 0.84763138 0.83551038
3 176874 75 189672.333 0.93252398 0.89892969
4 161854 76 190553.750 0.84938764 0.92780596
5 197854 77 191418.500 1.03362005 1.05886906
6 203669 78 191423.375 1.06397142 1.03929705
7 212365 79 189963.500 1.11792529 1.16642229
8 222785 80 188553.458 1.1815482 1.16189021
9 199856 81 188542.250 1.06000644 1.03674493
10 198741 82 188919.042 1.0519903 1.05170267
11 186547 83 189666.125 0.98355465 0.98378571
12 184522 84 190627.667 0.96797072 0.96731456
8 1 158974 85 191473.625 0.83026579 0.8745554
2 156966 86 192816.292 0.81407021 0.83551038
3 179874 87 194322.250 0.92564799 0.89892969
4 167897 88 195157.208 0.86031667 0.92780596
5 209741 89 196003.708 1.0700869 1.05886906
6 214859 90 196690.583 1.09237055 1.03929705
7 221478 91 197759.417 1.11993656 1.16642229
8 245896 92 199568.000 1.23214143 1.16189021
9 212888 93 200431.083 1.06215062 1.03674493
10 205748 94 201779.625 1.01966688 1.05170267
11 199856 95 203689.083 0.98118169 0.98378571
12 187698 96 204182.542 0.91926567 0.96731456
9 1 181450 97 204932.250 0.88541457 0.8745554
 2 177896 98 205784.958 0.86447523 0.83551038
3 179658 99 205753.375 0.87317158 0.89892969
4 200478 100 206460.167 0.97102508 0.92780596
5 222987 101 209160.500 1.06610474 1.05886906
6 213456 102 212144.042 1.00618428 1.03929705
7 240874 103 213588.208 1.12774952 1.16642229
8 246965 104 213930.292 1.1544181 1.16189021
9 211061 105 214431.375 0.98428227 1.03674493
10 224538 106 215021.958 1.04425614 1.05170267
11 245874 107 215389.542 1.14153175 0.98378571
12 213285 108 216181.000 0.98660382 0.96731456
10 1 190523 109 217347.500 0.87658243 0.8745554
2 177033 110 217903.958 0.81243591 0.83551038
3 192547 111 218596.125 0.88083446 0.89892969
4 201763 112 219736.542 0.91820413 0.92780596
5 230524 113 218176.333 1.05659489 1.05886906
6 224914 114 216782.250 1.03751114 1.03929705
7 257412 115 217222.333 1.18501627 1.16642229
8 243782 116 217574.458 1.12045321 1.16189021
9 230856 117 218700.083 1.05558259 1.03674493
10 232113 118 220066.250 1.05474147 1.05170267
11 200854 119 219993.167 0.91300109 0.98378571
12 224847 120 220111.875 1.02151236 0.96731456
11 1 189523 121 221332.250 0.85628281 0.8745554
2 186484 122 221933.125 0.84027114 0.83551038
3 210111 123 222328.625 0.945047 0.89892969
4 216987 124 223428.917 0.97116794 0.92780596
5 213546 125 225322.083 0.94773667 1.05886906
6 244741 126 227262.500 1.07690886 1.03929705
7 266874 127 228665.708 1.16709235 1.16642229
8 248741 128 229793.750 1.08245329 1.16189021
9 235389 129 231191.208 1.01815723 1.03674493
10 253987 130 232440.750 1.09269567 1.05170267
11 224416 131 234499.750 0.95699889 0.98378571
12 247855 132 236694.583 1.04715113 0.96731456
12 1 200192 133 238022.708 0.84106261 0.8745554
2 202888 134 239737.000 0.84629406 0.83551038
3 227246 135 241665.083 0.94033444 0.89892969
4 229841 136 242281.792 0.94865156 0.92780596
5 250108 137 243129.000 1.02870493 1.05886906
6 260855 138 244199.500 1.06820448 1.03929705
7 282635 139 244169.000 1.15753843 1.16642229
8 274123 140 244917.792 1.11924494 1.16189021
9 256281 141 245943.625 1.04203148 1.03674493
10 247896 142 246010.167 1.00766567 1.05170267
11 250840 143 246713.083 1.0167276 0.98378571
12 247123 144 246580.208 1.00220128 0.96731456
13 1 200192 145 245487.292 0.81548824 0.8745554
2 220859 146 246429.542 0.89623589 0.83551038
3 233895 147 247662.833 0.94440896 0.89892969
4 224789 148 248928.750 0.90302546 0.92780596
 5 272030 149 250090.708 1.08772534 1.05886906
6 235744 150 250266.250 0.9419728 1.03929705
7 281516 151 251634.708 1.11874869 1.16642229
8 297856 152 253136.292 1.17666257 1.16189021
9 262147 153 254106.042 1.03164411 1.03674493
10 272412 154 256368.542 1.06257967 1.05170267
11 254211 155 258730.875 0.98253059 0.98378571
12 247965 156 262693.833 0.94393156 0.96731456
14 1 232193 157 267039.833 0.86950698 0.8745554
2 224896 158 269574.083 0.83426417 0.83551038
3 253132 159 271543.125 0.93219815 0.89892969
4 259852 160 273405.833 0.95042595 0.92780596
5 293663 161 275877.542 1.06446867 1.05886906
6 309222 162 278184.625 1.11157114 1.03929705
7 312342 163 280336.875 1.11416666 1.16642229
8 327852 164 282385.250 1.16100965 1.16189021
9 279408 165 283111.667 0.986918 1.03674493
10 299856 166 283486.333 1.05774411 1.05170267
11 286088 167 284737.042 1.00474458 0.98378571
12 271458 168 284699.083 0.95349095 0.96731456
15 1 260354 169 284520.333 0.9150629 0.8745554
2 245896 170 285218.167 0.86213302 0.83551038
3 249566 171 284806.542 0.87626499 0.89892969
4 272410 172 284420.958 0.95777049 0.92780596
5 311122 173 284074.000 1.09521463 1.05886906
6 290852 174 284006.542 1.02410317 1.03929705
7 326422 175 283810.875 1.15013916 1.16642229
8 330520 176 283326.292 1.16657017 1.16189021
9 266861 177 283588.125 0.94101613 1.03674493
10 303149 178 283640.750 1.06877802 1.05170267
11 274468 179 283734.833 0.96733981 0.98378571
12 281459 180 284993.750 0.9875971 0.96731456
16 1 245657 181 286254.583 0.85817665 0.8745554
2 248963 182 285905.917 0.87078646 0.83551038
3 252783 183 287045.625 0.88063701 0.89892969
4 270456 184 288657.458 0.93694444 0.92780596
5 315334 185 288879.625 1.09157577 1.05886906
6 316854 186 289709.417 1.0936959 1.03929705
7 330680 187 1.16642229
8 317894 188 1.16189021
9 306840 189 1.03674493
10 301854 190 1.05170267
11 281095 191 0.98378571
12 294747 192 0.96731456
17 1 193 0.8745554
2 194 0.83551038
3 195 0.89892969
4 196 0.92780596
5 197 1.05886906
6 198 1.03929705
7 199 1.16642229
 8 200 1.16189021
9 201 1.03674493
10 202 1.05170267
11 203 0.98378571
12 204 0.96731456

Month Avg. Seasonality Trend A.

1 0.8745554 b0 b1
350000
2 0.83551038 123963 878.23
3 0.89892969 300000
4 0.92780596 f(x) = 878.22651825
250000
5 1.05886906
6 1.03929705 200000
7 1.16642229
8 1.16189021 150000
9 1.03674493 100000
10 1.05170267
11 0.98378571 50000
12 0.96731456
0
0 50
Unseasoned Trendbased
Value Forecast
Seasonalized Trend Error Absolute ErrorSquared ErrorAbsolute Error in %
124379.771 124841.23 109180.571 403.57142 403.57142 162869.891 0.00371008
132335.878 125719.46 105039.914 -5528.08596 5528.08596 30559734.4 0.04999716
136372.179 126597.69 113802.422 -8786.57824 8786.57824 77203957.2 0.0716751
134615.432 127475.92 118272.918 -6624.08189 6624.08189 43878460.8 0.05303636
140488.569 128354.15 135910.239 -12848.7614 12848.7614 165090668 0.086373
153949.249 129232.38 134310.831 -25688.1687 25688.1687 659882010 0.16055206
141369.898 130110.61 151763.915 -13133.0848 13133.0848 172477916 0.07964417
148791.167 130988.84 152194.65 -20684.3496 20684.3496 427842318 0.1196464
144562.076 131867.07 136712.517 -13161.4835 13161.4835 173224648 0.08781699
134818.523 132745.3 139608.586 -2180.41389 2180.41389 4754204.74 0.01537788
137898.933 133623.53 131456.92 -4206.08025 4206.08025 17691111.1 0.03100389
124628.539 134501.76 130105.51 9550.51049 9550.51049 91212250.7 0.07922119
133664.489 135379.99 118397.301 1500.30085 1500.30085 2250902.65 0.01283438
136034.216 136258.22 113845.157 187.157435 187.157435 35027.9056 0.00164667
135237.496 137136.45 123276.026 1707.02598 1707.02598 2913937.69 0.01404162
135668.454 138014.68 128050.842 2176.84244 2176.84244 4738642.99 0.01729382
151348.269 138892.91 147069.406 -13188.5944 13188.5944 173939023 0.08229601
155371.364 139771.14 145263.733 -16213.2665 16213.2665 262870011 0.10040604
154194.585 140649.37 164056.56 -15799.4403 15799.4403 249622312 0.08784494
154796.037 141527.6 164439.532 -15416.4676 15416.4676 237667472 0.08571561
153328.939 142405.83 147638.523 -11324.4775 11324.4775 128243790 0.07123971
147133.791 143284.06 150692.228 -4048.77189 4048.77189 16392553.8 0.02616483
144912.655 144162.29 141824.801 -738.19873 738.19873 544937.365 0.00517805
142502.766 145040.52 140299.806 2454.80646 2454.80646 6026074.77 0.01780845
149297.575 145918.75 127614.03 -2954.96972 2954.96972 8731846.02 0.02263148
143314.796 146796.98 122650.401 2909.40083 2909.40083 8464613.18 0.02429745
147448.685 147675.21 132749.63 203.6302 203.6302 41465.2583 0.0015363
145947.543 148553.44 137828.767 2417.76676 2417.76676 5845596.09 0.01785502
157599.278 149431.67 158228.573 -8648.42748 8648.42748 74795297.9 0.05182516
153384.444 150309.9 156216.636 -3195.36432 3195.36432 10210353.1 0.02004469
155814.067 151188.13 176349.204 -5395.79572 5395.79572 29114611.5 0.02968883
154822.718 152066.36 176684.414 -3202.58553 3202.58553 10256554.1 0.01780332
153330.868 152944.59 158564.529 -400.471446 400.471446 160377.379 0.00251924
160449.341 153822.82 161775.87 -6969.12988 6969.12988 48568771.3 0.04129977
154241.923 154701.05 152192.683 451.682792 451.682792 204017.344 0.00297667
146580.033 155579.28 150494.102 8705.10243 8705.10243 75778808.3 0.06139477
160715.948 156457.51 136830.76 -3724.24028 3724.24028 13869965.7 0.02649668
155442.712 157335.74 131455.644 1581.64422 1581.64422 2501598.44 0.0121783
149560.085 158213.97 142223.234 7779.23442 7779.23442 60516488.2 0.05786227
163537.428 159092.2 147606.691 -4124.30892 4124.30892 17009924.1 0.02718172
160408.879 159970.43 169387.739 -464.260549 464.260549 215537.857 0.00273332
162197.131 160848.66 167169.538 -1401.46214 1401.46214 1964096.13 0.00831378
169178.009 161726.89 188641.849 -8691.15119 8691.15119 75536109 0.04404307
156861.637 162605.12 188929.297 6673.29651 6673.29651 44532886.3 0.03661496
165367.58 163483.35 169490.535 -1953.46543 1953.46543 3816027.17 0.01139419
170706.042 164361.58 172859.512 -6672.48788 6672.48788 44522094.5 0.03716601
159549.989 165239.81 162560.564 5597.56431 5597.56431 31332726.2 0.03566168
165281.292 166118.04 160688.398 809.398401 809.398401 655125.771 0.00506257
163367.581 166996.27 146047.489 3173.48915 3173.48915 10071033.4 0.0222118
163796.887 167874.5 140260.888 3406.88761 3406.88761 11606883.2 0.02489432
162127.252 168752.73 151696.839 5955.83864 5955.83864 35472013.9 0.04086591
183816.453 169630.96 157384.615 -13161.3846 13161.3846 173222045 0.07717205
165071.401 170509.19 180546.906 5757.90639 5757.90639 33153485.9 0.03294204
127849.877 171387.42 178122.44 45248.44 45248.44 2047421326 0.34053645
180525.529 172265.65 200934.493 -9634.50665 9634.50665 92823718.4 0.04575463
163308.029 173143.88 201174.179 11428.1785 11428.1785 130603265 0.06022882
177981.097 174022.11 180416.541 -4104.45941 4104.45941 16846587 0.02224386
177161.289 174900.34 183943.154 -2377.84588 2377.84588 5654151.01 0.01276209
170655.05 175778.57 172928.446 5040.44584 5040.44584 25406094.2 0.03002267
180874.979 176656.8 170882.694 -4080.30563 4080.30563 16648894 0.02332096
179223.638 177535.03 155264.219 -1476.78142 1476.78142 2180883.36 0.00942179
166060.175 178413.26 149066.131 10321.131 10321.131 106525745 0.07438921
174613.212 179291.49 161170.443 4205.44286 4205.44286 17685749.7 0.02679223
171092.887 180169.72 167162.54 8421.53972 8421.53972 70922331.2 0.05305208
171460.293 181047.95 191706.073 10152.0733 10152.0733 103064593 0.05591765
185402.239 181926.18 189075.342 -3612.65778 3612.65778 13051296.2 0.01874874
181304.835 182804.41 213227.138 1749.13788 1749.13788 3059483.34 0.00827102
182939.833 183682.64 213419.061 863.060582 863.060582 744873.568 0.00406039
187967.16 184560.87 191342.547 -3531.45339 3531.45339 12471163 0.01812173
173593.741 185439.1 195026.796 12457.7961 12457.7961 155196684 0.0682361
184964.06 186317.33 183296.327 1331.32736 1331.32736 1772432.53 0.00731639
195372.848 187195.56 181076.99 -7910.00966 7910.00966 62568252.8 0.04185478
216734.127 188073.79 164480.948 -25065.052 25065.052 628256831 0.1322373
191780.98 188952.02 157871.374 -2363.6256 2363.6256 5586725.98 0.01475099
196760.662 189830.25 170644.047 -6229.95292 6229.95292 38812313.3 0.03522255
174448.114 190708.48 176940.464 15086.464 15086.464 227601397 0.09321033
186854.076 191586.71 202865.24 5011.24026 5011.24026 25112528.9 0.02532797
195968.034 192464.94 200028.244 -3640.7556 3640.7556 13255101.3 0.01787585
182065.28 193343.17 225519.782 13154.7824 13154.7824 173048300 0.06194421
191743.59 194221.4 225663.943 2878.94262 2878.94262 8288310.6 0.01292252
192772.584 195099.63 202268.553 2412.55263 2412.55263 5820410.2 0.01207145
188970.71 195977.86 206110.438 7369.43813 7369.43813 54308618.4 0.03708061
189621.579 196856.09 193664.209 7117.20888 7117.20888 50654662.2 0.03815236
190756.976 197734.32 191271.286 6749.28631 6749.28631 45552865.7 0.03657714
181776.936 198612.55 173697.677 14723.6774 14723.6774 216786677 0.09261689
187868.402 199490.78 166676.618 9710.61779 9710.61779 94296097.9 0.06186447
200097.964 200369.01 180117.651 243.651304 243.651304 59365.9578 0.00135457
180961.33 201247.24 186718.388 18821.3884 18821.3884 354244660 0.1121008
198080.204 202125.47 214024.407 4283.40719 4283.40719 18347577.2 0.02042236
206734.927 203003.7 210981.147 -3877.85342 3877.85342 15037747.1 0.01804836
189878.059 203881.93 237812.427 16334.427 16334.427 266813504 0.07375192
211634.454 204760.16 237908.825 -7987.17535 7987.17535 63794970 0.03248192
205342.697 205638.39 213194.559 306.55865 306.55865 93978.2061 0.00144
195633.24 206516.62 217194.08 11446.0801 11446.0801 131012750 0.05563155
203149.931 207394.85 204032.09 4176.0904 4176.0904 17439731 0.0208955
194040.293 208273.08 201465.582 13767.5823 13767.5823 189546322 0.07334965
207476.851 209151.31 182914.407 1464.40688 1464.40688 2144487.5 0.00807058
212918.958 210029.54 175481.861 -2414.13881 2414.13881 5828066.22 0.01357051
199857.678 210907.77 189591.256 9933.25552 9933.25552 98669565.3 0.0552898
216077.509 211786 196496.313 -3981.68732 3981.68732 15853833.9 0.01986097
210589.777 212664.23 225183.574 2196.57413 2196.57413 4824937.89 0.00985068
205384.976 213542.46 221934.049 8478.04876 8478.04876 71877310.8 0.03971802
206506.685 214420.69 250105.071 9231.07149 9231.07149 85212680.9 0.03832324
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Chart Title Chart Ti

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f(x) = 878.226518259263 x + 123962.570233323
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0 50 100 150 200 250 1 11 21 31 41 Column
51 61 D71 81 91Colum
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51 61 D71 81 91Column
101 111
J 121 131Column
141 151K161 171 181 191 201