Monthly Energy Demand

Year Month Demand t CMA(12) Saisonal ratio Saisonal index

1 1 108777 1 x 0.8745553966
2 110568 2 x 0.8355103819
3 122589 3 x 0.8989296863
4 124897 4 x 0.9278059583
5 148759 5 x 1.0588690638
6 159999 6 x 1.0392970502
7 164897 7 138775.500 1.18822847 1.1664222864
8 172879 8 139242.583 1.24156703 1.1618902068
9 149874 9 139328.833 1.07568546 1.036744932
10 141789 10 139327.042 1.01767036 1.0517026675
11 135663 11 139846.875 0.97008246 0.9837857131
12 120555 12 140387.583 0.85872979 0.9673145578
2 1 116897 13 141072.458 0.82863091 0.8745553966
2 113658 14 141986.458 0.80048479 0.8355103819
3 121569 15 142655.875 0.85218362 0.8989296863
4 125874 16 143574.250 0.8767171 0.9278059583
5 160258 17 144401.417 1.10980906 1.0588690638
6 161477 18 145409.333 1.11049956 1.0392970502
7 179856 19 146699.417 1.22601715 1.1664222864
8 179856 20 147522.542 1.21917639 1.1618902068
9 158963 21 148233.375 1.07238333 1.036744932
10 154741 22 149088.125 1.03791633 1.0517026675
11 142563 23 149761.292 0.9519349 0.9837857131
12 137845 24 149951.042 0.91926671 0.9673145578
3 1 130569 25 149943.708 0.87078679 0.8745553966
2 119741 26 150023.708 0.79814718 0.8355103819
3 132546 27 150025.083 0.88349226 0.8989296863
4 135411 28 150608.667 0.89909169 0.9278059583
5 166877 29 151574.583 1.10095635 1.0588690638
6 159412 30 152121.333 1.04792666 1.0392970502
7 181745 31 152701.750 1.19019592 1.1664222864
8 179887 32 153540.042 1.17159666 1.1618902068
9 158965 33 154041.333 1.03196328 1.036744932
10 168745 34 154800.417 1.09008105 1.0517026675
11 151741 35 155604.375 0.97517181 0.9837857131
12 141789 36 156109.958 0.90826365 0.9673145578
4 1 140555 37 157141.083 0.89445101 0.8745553966
2 129874 38 157889.292 0.8225637 0.8355103819
3 134444 39 158507.958 0.84818454 0.8989296863
4 151731 40 159477.375 0.9514265 0.9278059583
5 169852 41 160144.417 1.06061768 1.0588690638
6 168571 42 161115.750 1.04627263 1.0392970502
7 197333 43 161966.125 1.2183597 1.1664222864
8 182256 44 162353.583 1.12258686 1.1618902068
9 171444 45 163115.125 1.05106133 1.036744932
10 179532 46 164369.792 1.09224449 1.0517026675
 11 156963 47 165359.458 0.94922299 0.9837857131
12 159879 48 164077.792 0.97440975 0.9673145578
5 1 142874 49 163141.917 0.87576512 0.8745553966
2 136854 50 164005.500 0.83444763 0.8355103819
3 145741 51 164862.458 0.88401569 0.8989296863
4 170546 52 165690.208 1.02930645 0.9278059583
5 174789 53 166428.292 1.0502361 1.0588690638
6 132874 54 167512.000 0.79322078 1.0392970502
7 210569 55 168718.292 1.24805081 1.1664222864
8 189746 56 169374.875 1.12027241 1.1618902068
9 184521 57 169921.333 1.08592015 1.036744932
10 186321 58 169897.125 1.09666953 1.0517026675
11 167888 59 169687.125 0.9893974 0.9837857131
12 174963 60 172461.250 1.01450616 0.9673145578
6 1 156741 61 174991.375 0.895707 0.8745553966
2 138745 62 175979.667 0.78841495 0.8355103819
3 156965 63 177361.458 0.88500062 0.8989296863
4 158741 64 177636.500 0.89362828 0.9278059583
5 181554 65 178066.708 1.01958419 1.0588690638
6 192688 66 179237.583 1.07504239 1.0392970502
7 211478 67 181188.792 1.16716933 1.1664222864
8 212556 68 183451.083 1.15865219 1.1618902068
9 194874 69 185176.042 1.05237156 1.036744932
10 182569 70 186135.292 0.98084033 1.0517026675
11 181965 71 186944.167 0.97336549 0.9837857131
12 188987 72 188080.875 1.00481774 0.9673145578
7 1 189546 73 188575.375 1.00514715 0.8745553966
2 160235 74 189038.542 0.84763138 0.8355103819
3 176874 75 189672.333 0.93252398 0.8989296863
4 161854 76 190553.750 0.84938764 0.9278059583
5 197854 77 191418.500 1.03362005 1.0588690638
6 203669 78 191423.375 1.06397142 1.0392970502
7 212365 79 189963.500 1.11792529 1.1664222864
8 222785 80 188553.458 1.1815482 1.1618902068
9 199856 81 188542.250 1.06000644 1.036744932
10 198741 82 188919.042 1.0519903 1.0517026675
11 186547 83 189666.125 0.98355465 0.9837857131
12 184522 84 190627.667 0.96797072 0.9673145578
8 1 158974 85 191473.625 0.83026579 0.8745553966
2 156966 86 192816.292 0.81407021 0.8355103819
3 179874 87 194322.250 0.92564799 0.8989296863
4 167897 88 195157.208 0.86031667 0.9278059583
5 209741 89 196003.708 1.0700869 1.0588690638
6 214859 90 196690.583 1.09237055 1.0392970502
7 221478 91 197759.417 1.11993656 1.1664222864
8 245896 92 199568.000 1.23214143 1.1618902068
9 212888 93 200431.083 1.06215062 1.036744932
10 205748 94 201779.625 1.01966688 1.0517026675
11 199856 95 203689.083 0.98118169 0.9837857131
12 187698 96 204182.542 0.91926567 0.9673145578
9 1 181450 97 204932.250 0.88541457 0.8745553966
 2 177896 98 205784.958 0.86447523 0.8355103819
3 179658 99 205753.375 0.87317158 0.8989296863
4 200478 100 206460.167 0.97102508 0.9278059583
5 222987 101 209160.500 1.06610474 1.0588690638
6 213456 102 212144.042 1.00618428 1.0392970502
7 240874 103 213588.208 1.12774952 1.1664222864
8 246965 104 213930.292 1.1544181 1.1618902068
9 211061 105 214431.375 0.98428227 1.036744932
10 224538 106 215021.958 1.04425614 1.0517026675
11 245874 107 215389.542 1.14153175 0.9837857131
12 213285 108 216181.000 0.98660382 0.9673145578
10 1 190523 109 217347.500 0.87658243 0.8745553966
2 177033 110 217903.958 0.81243591 0.8355103819
3 192547 111 218596.125 0.88083446 0.8989296863
4 201763 112 219736.542 0.91820413 0.9278059583
5 230524 113 218176.333 1.05659489 1.0588690638
6 224914 114 216782.250 1.03751114 1.0392970502
7 257412 115 217222.333 1.18501627 1.1664222864
8 243782 116 217574.458 1.12045321 1.1618902068
9 230856 117 218700.083 1.05558259 1.036744932
10 232113 118 220066.250 1.05474147 1.0517026675
11 200854 119 219993.167 0.91300109 0.9837857131
12 224847 120 220111.875 1.02151236 0.9673145578
11 1 189523 121 221332.250 0.85628281 0.8745553966
2 186484 122 221933.125 0.84027114 0.8355103819
3 210111 123 222328.625 0.945047 0.8989296863
4 216987 124 223428.917 0.97116794 0.9278059583
5 213546 125 225322.083 0.94773667 1.0588690638
6 244741 126 227262.500 1.07690886 1.0392970502
7 266874 127 228665.708 1.16709235 1.1664222864
8 248741 128 229793.750 1.08245329 1.1618902068
9 235389 129 231191.208 1.01815723 1.036744932
10 253987 130 232440.750 1.09269567 1.0517026675
11 224416 131 234499.750 0.95699889 0.9837857131
12 247855 132 236694.583 1.04715113 0.9673145578
12 1 200192 133 238022.708 0.84106261 0.8745553966
2 202888 134 239737.000 0.84629406 0.8355103819
3 227246 135 241665.083 0.94033444 0.8989296863
4 229841 136 242281.792 0.94865156 0.9278059583
5 250108 137 243129.000 1.02870493 1.0588690638
6 260855 138 244199.500 1.06820448 1.0392970502
7 282635 139 244169.000 1.15753843 1.1664222864
8 274123 140 244917.792 1.11924494 1.1618902068
9 256281 141 245943.625 1.04203148 1.036744932
10 247896 142 246010.167 1.00766567 1.0517026675
11 250840 143 246713.083 1.0167276 0.9837857131
12 247123 144 246580.208 1.00220128 0.9673145578
13 1 200192 145 245487.292 0.81548824 0.8745553966
2 220859 146 246429.542 0.89623589 0.8355103819
3 233895 147 247662.833 0.94440896 0.8989296863
4 224789 148 248928.750 0.90302546 0.9278059583
 5 272030 149 250090.708 1.08772534 1.0588690638
6 235744 150 250266.250 0.9419728 1.0392970502
7 281516 151 251634.708 1.11874869 1.1664222864
8 297856 152 253136.292 1.17666257 1.1618902068
9 262147 153 254106.042 1.03164411 1.036744932
10 272412 154 256368.542 1.06257967 1.0517026675
11 254211 155 258730.875 0.98253059 0.9837857131
12 247965 156 262693.833 0.94393156 0.9673145578
14 1 232193 157 267039.833 0.86950698 0.8745553966
2 224896 158 269574.083 0.83426417 0.8355103819
3 253132 159 271543.125 0.93219815 0.8989296863
4 259852 160 273405.833 0.95042595 0.9278059583
5 293663 161 275877.542 1.06446867 1.0588690638
6 309222 162 278184.625 1.11157114 1.0392970502
7 312342 163 280336.875 1.11416666 1.1664222864
8 327852 164 282385.250 1.16100965 1.1618902068
9 279408 165 283111.667 0.986918 1.036744932
10 299856 166 283486.333 1.05774411 1.0517026675
11 286088 167 284737.042 1.00474458 0.9837857131
12 271458 168 284699.083 0.95349095 0.9673145578
15 1 260354 169 284520.333 0.9150629 0.8745553966
2 245896 170 285218.167 0.86213302 0.8355103819
3 249566 171 284806.542 0.87626499 0.8989296863
4 272410 172 284420.958 0.95777049 0.9278059583
5 311122 173 284074.000 1.09521463 1.0588690638
6 290852 174 284006.542 1.02410317 1.0392970502
7 326422 175 283810.875 1.15013916 1.1664222864
8 330520 176 283326.292 1.16657017 1.1618902068
9 266861 177 283588.125 0.94101613 1.036744932
10 303149 178 283640.750 1.06877802 1.0517026675
11 274468 179 283734.833 0.96733981 0.9837857131
12 281459 180 284993.750 0.9875971 0.9673145578
16 1 245657 181 286254.583 0.85817665 0.8745553966
2 248963 182 285905.917 0.87078646 0.8355103819
3 252783 183 287045.625 0.88063701 0.8989296863
4 270456 184 288657.458 0.93694444 0.9278059583
5 315334 185 288879.625 1.09157577 1.0588690638
6 316854 186 289709.417 1.0936959 1.0392970502
7 330680 187 x 1.1664222864
8 317894 188 x 1.1618902068
9 306840 189 x 1.036744932
10 301854 190 x 1.0517026675
11 281095 191 x 0.9837857131
12 294747 192 x 0.9673145578
17 1 193 0.8745553966
2 194 0.8355103819
3 195 0.8989296863
4 196 0.9278059583
5 197 1.0588690638
6 198 1.0392970502
7 199 1.1664222864
8 200 1.1618902068
9 201 1.036744932
10 202 1.0517026675
11 203 0.9837857131

Q Average Seasonality
1 0.8745554
2 0.83551038 b1 b0
3 0.89892969 878.23 123963
4 0.92780596
5 1.05886906
6 1.03929705
7 1.16642229
8 1.16189021
9 1.03674493
10 1.05170267
11 0.98378571
12 0.96731456
UnseasonedTrendbased
value Forecast
Seasonalized Trend
124379.771 124841.23 109180.571
132335.878 125719.46 105039.914
136372.179 126597.69 113802.422
134615.432 127475.92 118272.918
140488.569 128354.15 135910.239
153949.249 129232.38 134310.831
141369.898 130110.61 151763.915
148791.167 130988.84 152194.65
144562.076 131867.07 136712.517
134818.523 132745.3 139608.586
137898.933 133623.53 131456.92
124628.539 134501.76 130105.51
133664.489 135379.99 118397.301
136034.216 136258.22 113845.157
135237.496 137136.45 123276.026
135668.454 138014.68 128050.842
151348.269 138892.91 147069.406
155371.364 139771.14 145263.733
154194.585 140649.37 164056.56
154796.037 141527.6 164439.532
153328.939 142405.83 147638.523
147133.791 143284.06 150692.228
144912.655 144162.29 141824.801
142502.766 145040.52 140299.806
149297.575 145918.75 127614.03
143314.796 146796.98 122650.401
147448.685 147675.21 132749.63
145947.543 148553.44 137828.767
157599.278 149431.67 158228.573
153384.444 150309.9 156216.636
155814.067 151188.13 176349.204
154822.718 152066.36 176684.414
153330.868 152944.59 158564.529
160449.341 153822.82 161775.87
154241.923 154701.05 152192.683
146580.033 155579.28 150494.102
160715.948 156457.51 136830.76
155442.712 157335.74 131455.644
149560.085 158213.97 142223.234
163537.428 159092.2 147606.691
160408.879 159970.43 169387.739
162197.131 160848.66 167169.538
169178.009 161726.89 188641.849
156861.637 162605.12 188929.297
165367.58 163483.35 169490.535
170706.042 164361.58 172859.512
159549.989 165239.81 162560.564
165281.292 166118.04 160688.398
163367.581 166996.27 146047.489
163796.887 167874.5 140260.888
162127.252 168752.73 151696.839
183816.453 169630.96 157384.615
165071.401 170509.19 180546.906
127849.877 171387.42 178122.44
180525.529 172265.65 200934.493
163308.029 173143.88 201174.179
177981.097 174022.11 180416.541
177161.289 174900.34 183943.154
170655.05 175778.57 172928.446
180874.979 176656.8 170882.694
179223.638 177535.03 155264.219
166060.175 178413.26 149066.131
174613.212 179291.49 161170.443
171092.887 180169.72 167162.54
171460.293 181047.95 191706.073
185402.239 181926.18 189075.342
181304.835 182804.41 213227.138
182939.833 183682.64 213419.061
187967.16 184560.87 191342.547
173593.741 185439.1 195026.796
184964.06 186317.33 183296.327
195372.848 187195.56 181076.99
216734.127 188073.79 164480.948
191780.98 188952.02 157871.374
196760.662 189830.25 170644.047
174448.114 190708.48 176940.464
186854.076 191586.71 202865.24
195968.034 192464.94 200028.244
182065.28 193343.17 225519.782
191743.59 194221.4 225663.943
192772.584 195099.63 202268.553
188970.71 195977.86 206110.438
189621.579 196856.09 193664.209
190756.976 197734.32 191271.286
181776.936 198612.55 173697.677
187868.402 199490.78 166676.618
200097.964 200369.01 180117.651
180961.33 201247.24 186718.388
198080.204 202125.47 214024.407
206734.927 203003.7 210981.147
189878.059 203881.93 237812.427
211634.454 204760.16 237908.825
205342.697 205638.39 213194.559
195633.24 206516.62 217194.08
203149.931 207394.85 204032.09
194040.293 208273.08 201465.582
207476.851 209151.31 182914.407
212918.958 210029.54 175481.861
199857.678 210907.77 189591.256
216077.509 211786 196496.313
210589.777 212664.23 225183.574
205384.976 213542.46 221934.049
206506.685 214420.69 250105.071
212554.507 215298.92 250153.707
203580.45 216177.15 224120.565
213499.506 217055.38 228277.722
249926.378 217933.61 214399.972
220491.874 218811.84 211659.878
217851.266 219690.07 192131.136
211886.057 220568.3 184287.105
214195.841 221446.53 199064.86
217462.497 222324.76 206274.237
217707.749 223202.99 236342.741
216409.736 224081.22 232886.951
220685.084 224959.45 262397.716
209815.005 225837.68 262398.589
222673.864 226715.91 235046.571
220702.112 227594.14 239361.364
204164.38 228472.37 224767.853
232444.553 229350.6 221854.174
216707.827 230228.83 201347.866
223197.705 231107.06 193092.348
233734.633 231985.29 208538.464
233871.1 232863.52 216052.161
201673.66 233741.75 247501.908
235487.053 234619.98 243839.853
228797.069 235498.21 274690.361
214083.051 236376.44 274643.471
227046.203 237254.67 245972.577
241500.766 238132.9 250445.006
228114.717 239011.13 235135.735
256229.991 239889.36 232048.47
228907.169 240767.59 210564.595
242831.214 241645.82 201897.591
252796.19 242524.05 218012.068
247725.29 243402.28 225830.086
236202.953 244280.51 258661.075
250991.764 245158.74 254792.755
242309.328 246036.97 286983.005
235928.488 246915.2 286888.353
247197.736 247793.43 256898.583
235709.205 248671.66 261528.648
254974.225 249549.89 245503.616
255473.256 250428.12 242242.766
228907.169 251306.35 219781.325
264340.222 252184.58 210702.835
260192.764 253062.81 227485.672
242280.186 253941.04 235608.01
256906.174 254819.27 269820.242
226830.241 255697.5 265745.657
241349.984 256575.73 299275.65
256354.687 257453.96 299133.235
252855.83 258332.19 267824.589
259019.976 259210.42 272612.29
258400.784 260088.65 255871.498
256343.707 260966.88 252437.062
265498.333 261845.11 228998.054
269171.999 262723.34 219508.078
281592.658 263601.57 236959.277
280071.493 264479.8 245385.934
277336.462 265358.03 280979.409
297529.951 266236.26 276698.56
267777.805 267114.49 311568.294
282171.24 267992.72 311378.117
269505.055 268870.95 278750.595
285114.804 269749.18 283695.932
290803.166 270627.41 266239.38
280630.533 271505.64 262631.358
297698.695 272383.87 238214.783
294306.337 273262.1 228313.322
277625.718 274140.33 246432.881
293606.651 275018.56 255163.859
293824.809 275896.79 292138.576
279854.542 276775.02 287651.462
279848.905 277653.25 323860.939
284467.498 278531.48 323622.999
257402.753 279409.71 289676.601
288245.917 280287.94 294779.574
278991.651 281166.17 276607.261
290969.466 282044.4 272825.654
280893.584 282922.63 247431.513
297977.147 283800.86 237118.565
281204.419 284679.09 255906.485
291500.607 285557.32 264941.783
297802.638 286435.55 303297.743
304873.376 287313.78 298604.364
283499.384 288192.01 336153.583
273600.722 289070.24 335867.881
295964.794 289948.47 300602.607
287014.581 290826.7 305863.216
285727.874 291704.93 286975.143
304706.466 292583.16 283019.95
293461.39 256648.242
294339.62 245923.808
295217.85 265380.089
296096.08 274719.707
296974.31 314456.91
297852.54 309557.266
298730.77 348446.228
 299609 348112.763
300487.23 311528.613
301365.46 316946.858
302243.69 297343.024

350000
Chart Title
300000
f(x) = 878.226518259263 x + 123962.570233323
250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0
0 50 100 150 200 250