2011 1 6

2009 1,570 2029 5,180

6.2% ARJ21
ARJ21
C919

2009 1,570 2029

5,180 6.2% 3.3%
2010 2029 20
4,330 71%
21%

ARJ21 C919

ARJ21

CFA
021-38521015

fsun@cebm.com.cn

021-38521008

vwang@cebm.com.cn

021-38521012

xdtang@cebm.com.cn

()

2006-2020

16
5

20074

()

2011 1 6

77
200934%2007GDP12.5%

2006

40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%

1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

10%

40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

CEIC

4 GDP

14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%

GDP

35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
2006
2007

CEIC

2006 2
2006-2010

1000 800
PXPTA

30 FPSO10000
LNG
200

()

2011 1 6

2009 5
2009-2011
1AP1000

70
/

2
750 1000 800
3

5/

10

2010 10
2011-2020

()

2011 1 6

Airbus

100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

0%

()

2011 1 6

10
150
130
110
90
70
50
30

280

Bloomberg
Bloomberg

230
180
130
10/12

10/08

10/04

09/12

09/08

09/04

08/12

08/08

08/04

07/12

07/08

07/04

06/12

06/08

06/04

05/12

05/08

05/04

04/12

04/08

04/04

03/12

03/08

80

BloombergWind

11
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%

150%

Bloomberg
WTI

100%
50%
0%
-50%
10/12

10/08

10/04

09/12

09/08

09/04

08/12

08/08

08/04

07/12

07/08

07/04

06/12

06/08

06/04

05/12

05/08

05/04

04/12

04/08

04/04

03/12

03/08

03/04

02/12

02/08

02/04

01/12

01/08

01/04

00/12

-100%

Bloomberg

12 GDP
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%

3,300
2,300
1,300
300
-700
2012E

2010E

2008

2006

2004

-1,700
2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

GDP

AirbusBoeingBloombergWorld Bank

13
1,400

WTI/

120

1,400

100

1,200

1,200
80

1,000

120
100

1,000

80

800

800

60

60
600

600

40

400
20

200

0
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009

AirbusBloomberg

()

WTI/

40

400

20

200
0

0
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009

1,600

14

BoeingBloomberg

2011 1 6

20092029GDP3.2%
200918,890202936,300
3.3%3.7%2.9%
Single Aisle
737A320MD-80/90
200961%202968%

Twin Aisle2009
19%202923%

202948%20102029
37%

15 2009-2029
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0

36,300
6%

27,230
10%

18,890

68%

16%

67%

61%
19%

20%

23%

2009

2019

2029

Boeing

16 2009-2029

40,000
30,000

17,410
30,900

20,000
13,490

10,000
18,890

5,400

0
200918,890

202936,300

Boeing

17

12,000
10,000

6%
5%

8,000
6,000
4,000

4%
3%
2%

2,000
0

1%
0%

Boeing

()

2011 1 6

20092,18119992009
106.9%
9.1%
199550%200965%
200991.5%

737A3202009
812737593A320219
62.6%
18
2,500

19 GDP
16%

GDP
20%

14%

15%

20%
15%

2,000

10%

1,000
500

12%

0%

10%

-5%

8%

-5%

-10%

6%

-10%

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

10%

5%

5%
0%

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

1,500

CEIC

CEICWind

20

21

9.1%

10%

100%
80%

8%

60%

6%

4.3%
3.4%

4%

40%
20%

2%

0%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

0%
1995-2009

22

23

737

1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0

100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
2009

2008

2007

2005

2004

2002

2001

2000

1999

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

0%

CEIC

()

A320

2006

CEIC

2003

CEIC

CEIC

2011 1 6

RPK
Revenue Passenger Kilometers
3%16%
12%20091208%
43%36%
80%300
50-120
1504
60MA60
ERJ-1452009120

24 RPK
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%

25 120

RPK
1999-2009

16%

60%

1202009

50%

43%

12%

36%

40%
30%
20%
3%

8%

10%
0%

Embraer

Embraer

26 09 27 09

8%

6%

10%

ATR72

CRJ-200

18

CRJ-700

Do328Jet

29
38

ERJ-145

76%

ERJ-190

24
4

MA60
0

Embraer

20

30

40

Embraer

28

29

350
250
200
150
100
50
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
10M

CEIC

1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
10M10

4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0

300

()

10

CEIC

2011 1 6

200812020
2442020
300203095%
10095%
GDP98%

ARJ21201111
60
30
170

31 2006-20
60

160

50

150

40

140
30

130
120

20

110

10

CEIC

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

100

32

()

10

2011 1 6

GDP
GDP

20295,1802009
3,6106.2%3.3%2010
2029204,330
71%21%

33 /GDP /GDP
/GDP/

/GDP/

16

1.8

14

1.6

12

1.4

10
1.2

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

0.8
1982

4
1980

1.0
1978

CEIC

34 GDP 35 2010-29
2,500

3,500

3,090

3,000
2,000

2,500
2,000

1,500
1,500

GDP

500

500
5,000

890

1,000

1,000

280

70

0
10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

CEIC

Boeing

36 2009-2029
6,000

5,180

5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000

73%
1,570

1,000

75%

15%

19%

2009

2029

Boeing

()

11

2011 1 6

AVIC
2003
/
200316.1200941.116.9%
37

38
/

16%

CEIC

CEIC

39

40
//

67.3%

30%

20

20%

10

10%

0%

8M10

2009

2008

2007

2006

62%

40%

30

CEIC

2009

64%

50%

40

2008

63.9%

50

2007

66%

65.6%

2006

65.5%

2005

66.1%

2003

68%

8M10

15%
2003

8M10

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

0%

17%

2009

5%

18%

2008

10%

19%

2007

15%

21%
20%

2006

20%

7%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%

2005

25%

2004

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%

2004

30%

CEIC

41

Airbus

A320
A319
A330/340

A320

A320
B737NG 48 787
747-8
767-300

GE

Z15/EC175 HC120
CF6CF34CF56GE90LM2500LM6000GP7200
GEnx

GE

Embraer

50 ERJ145

Boeing

Eurocopter

()

12

2011 1 6

5EADS6%

42 EADS
10%

8%

EADS/

6%
4%
2%
2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

0%

Bloomberg

43 100
9.1%

CRB
8.5%
7.4%
7.2%
6.9%

2001

2002

12%
9.7%

10%
8%

8.9%

9.0%

9.1%

2006

2007

2008

8.5%

6%
4%
2%
0%
2000

2003

2004

2005

120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%

2009

PricewaterhouseCoopers

44 EADSEmbraer
50%

Boeing

EADS

Embraer

40%
30%
20%
10%
2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

0%

Bloomberg

45 2010 12 30
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

09
Boeing
EADS
Lockheed Martin

Embraer

United Technologies

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Bloomberg

()

13

2011 1 6

60MA60Modern Ark 6060

7-200A7-200A
60060
601450
600165012001500
PW127J

46

- PW-127J
247F-3
APS-85

47

2009 12 18

60

/
14.5

2010 11 16

60

14.5

2010 11 16

600

16.5

48

2000

60

60

2 PW127J

600
Antonov
An-140

60

2 PW127J
2 TV3117VMA-SBM1

ATR-42

50

2 PW100

ATR-72

74

2 PW100

Ilyunshin Il114

64

2 TV7-117S, 2
PW127J

Dash 8/Q
Series
Q100
Q200
Q300
Q400

52

1997

1984

1983

37
39
56
78

2 PW100
2 PW100
2 PW100
2 PW150A

2010 11

12.0

250

15.0

10

Antonov ASTC

9.0

37

ATR

17.5

408

ATR
Ilyushin
Aviaton
Complex

21.0

591

Bombardier

1,063
12.5
13.0
17.0
32.0

298
91
282
392

Deagel

()

14

2011 1 6

2006-202016
100
20085

ARJ21
C919
ARJ21Bombardier
CRJ700/900/1000EmbraerE170/190
C919737320
49

Airbus

()

15

2011 1 6

ARJ21-700ARJ21-900C919

50

Antonov An-148
AVIC ARJ21-700
Avro RJ70, RJ85

90-175
Boeing 717, 727
Boeing 737-100 -500
Boeing 737-600, -700, -800

BAe 146-100, -200

Airbus A318, A319, A320

Bombardier CRJ
Dornier 328JET
Embraer 170, 175
ERJ-135, -140, -145
Fokker 70, F28
Mitsubishi MRJ
Sukhoi Superjet 100 RRJ
Yakovlev Yak-40

230-340 /
180-260
Boeing 767, 787
Boeing-MDC DC-10
Airbus A300, A310
Airbus A330-200
Airbus A350-800
Lockheed L-1011
Ilyushin IL-96

45
BAe 146
Boeing-MDC DC-8, -9
Boeing 737
Boeing 727
Tupolev TU-204
Boeing 707
Boeing-MDC MD-80
Boeing 757-200
Airbus A318, A319, A320, A321

Boeing -MDC DC-9, MD80, -90

AVIC ARJ21-900
BAe146-300, Avro RJ100
Bombardier CRJ-1000
Bombardier CS100, CS300
Embraer 190, 195
Fokker 100
Ilyushin IL-62
Tupolev TU-154
Yakovlev Yak-42

340-450 /
260-370
Boeing 777
Boeing-MDC MD-11
Airbus A330-300, A340
Airbus A350-900, -1000
Ilyushin IL-86

40-80
Boeing 767
Lockheed L-1011SF
Boeing-MDC MC-10
Boeing 787
Airbus A330
Boeing 777-A SF
Ilyushin IL-76TD

175
Boeing 707, 757
Boeing 737-900ER
Airbus A321
Tupolev TU-204, TU214
COMAC C919

400

Boeing 747-8
Airbus A380

80
Boeing-MDC MD-11
Boeing 747
Boeing 777
Airbus A340-600 SF
Airbus A350
Ilyushin IL-96T
Antonov An-124

Boeing

()

16

2011 1 6

ARJ21
ARJ21

BombardierEmbraer
51 ARJ21
ARJ21-700

GE

CF34-10A

CF34
Bombardier
CRJ100/200/700/900Challenger
601/604/605 Embraer
E170/175/190/195

APU

Honeywell

Liebherr

Rockwell Collins

Safran
Sagem

Goodrich

FACC

ERJ170/190D728/928Falcon
F7XGulfstream G550

Bombardier
CRJ100/200/700

Meggitt

Liebherr

Eaton

Zodiac

Parker Aerospace

A300A330A340B727
B737B747B757B767
B777ERJ135/140/145/170/190
DC-8DC-10

Bombardier C 787
A350 C919
C919
A320A330
A340 A400M
737747
777 C919

()

17

2011 1 6

ARJ21

BombardierCRJEmbraerERJ
BombardierCRJ NextGen
C

ARJ21
2008ARJ21-7002000

52 ARJ21

ERJ145

50

1,550

ERJ145XR

50

2,000

10 11

932

2 AE 3007

1996

Embraer

ERJ170

70-80

2,100

33

162

2 CF34-8

2004

ERJ175

78-88

2,000

37

130

2 CF34-8

2005

ERJ190

98-114

2,400

40

335

2 CF34-10

2005

ERJ195

108-122

2,200

42

117

2 CF34-10

06 9

CRJ200

50

1,345

24

799

2 CF34-3

1996

CRJ700

70-78

1,434

35

573

2 CF34-8C5

2001

CRJ705

75

1,719

CRJ900

90

1,350

40

262

2003

CRJ1000

100

1,691

53

65

CS100

110

2,200

51

33

2 CF34-8C5
2 CF348C5A2
2 PW1524G

CS300

130

2,200

76

57

2 PW1524G

2013

78-90

1,200

20

186

2 CF34-10A

2011

14

2 CF34-10A

2011

10 12

Bombardier

2009
2013

COMAC
ARJ21-700STD
ARJ21-700ER

78-90

2,000

ARJ21-900STD

98-105

1,200

ARJ21-900ER

98-105

1,800

ARJ21F
ARJ21B

1,800
20

3,300

Superjet 100-60

63

2,630

26

2 SaM146

Superjet 100-75

78

2,630

27

2 SaM146

Superjet 100-95

98

2,478

32

Sukhoi

288

2 SaM146

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries

MRJ70

80

913

2 PW1000G

2014

MRJ90

96

869

2 PW1000G

2014

An-148-100

80

2,754

219

2 D-436-148B

2007

An-158

99

10

2 D-436-148B

Antonov
23

Deagel

()

18

2011 1 6

C919
C919
737A320neo
C919202000
CFM International
C919LEAP-X1C
LEAP-X
A320neoLEAP-X1C
50%
25%25%

BombardierEmbraer
50%
53 C919

10 11

60

100

2016

COMAC
C919
Airbus
A310
A318
A319
A320
A320neo
A321
A330-200

150
168-190
220
107
124
150

5,184
3,240
3,672
4,145

260
155
1,429

74
81

220
293

3,024
6,668

96
200

686
576

A330-300

335

5,616

209

433

A340-200

261

7,991

A340-300

295

7,397

A340-500

313

8,666

A340-600

380

7,883

A350-800

270

8,585

A350-900

314

7,505

A350-1000

350

8,585

A380

555

8,099

244

1983
2003
1996
1988
2016
1988
1998
1993
1993

41

2002

124

2002

170

266

2013

253

334

2013

150

43
360

251

2007

Deagel

54 C919

APU

50%

25%
25%

()

19

2011 1 6

55 C919

10 11

60

100

2016

30

3,000

1990

COMAC
C919

150
168-190

Boeing
737 Family
737-500

132

2,160

737-600

132

3,051

737-700

149

3,361

737-800

189

3,059

80

737-900

189

2,745

55

747-300

496

6,695

747-400

524

7,262

150

7,999

300

1998
1998

64
3,245

1998
2001

747 Family

747-8

724

1983
1989

33

2011

767 Family
1984

767-200ER

255

5,184

767-300ER

351

6,102

150

1988

767-400ER

375

5,670

100

2000

777-200ER

440

6,156

212

41

1997

777-300ER

370

6,156

272

389

2004

787 Family
787-3
787-8
787-9

289
217
257

3,500
8,504
8,300

168
193

620
185

2011
2011
2011

777 Family

Deagel

56 C919
C919

()
6
APU

()

20

2011 1 6

57

2010 10
2010-2012

100

HST

()

21

2011 1 6

A350-900XWB

80%BombardierC
50%

CFRPAFRP
GFRPEpoxy

58 A350-900XWB

Airbus

59 Bombardier C

Bombardier

60 A320

Low-Cost Composite Materials and Structures for Aircraft Applications

61 Boeing777

Low-Cost Composite Materials and Structures for Aircraft Applications

()

22

2011 1 6

62

Aluminum and Aluminum Alloys

63

10%-15%

5%-7%

2-4

4-6

RTM
RFIVARI

DCF
SR
ABD

64
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

USGS

()

23

2011 1 6

2060
1%
10%Boeing777

27.4%

65

Titanium and Titanium Alloys: Fundamental and Applications

66

Ti-6Al-4V
Ti-6Al-2Sn-4Zr-2Mo (6-2-4-2)
Ti-6Al-2Sn-4Zr-6Mo (6-2-4-6)
Ti-3Al-8V-6Cr-4Zr-4Mo (Beta C)
Ti-10V-2Fe-3Al (10-2-3)
Ti-15V-3Cr-3Sn-3Al (15-3-3-3)
Ti-3Al-2.5V
Ti-4Al-4Mo-2Sn (550)
Ti-5.5Al-3.5Sn-3Zr-1Nb (829)
Ti-5.8Al-4Sn-3.5Zr-0.7Nb (834)

Beta
Boeing777 Beta
Beta

Titanium Information Group

67 TiO2 68 TiO2
30%

130

25%

120

20%

110

15%

100

10%

90

5%

80
70
60

1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010

0%

USGS

()

Bloomberg

24

2011 1 6

C91950%20%
10%20%20
2000
41.68A320
40
2010
300
69 20 C919
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0

70 300
30020091231=1000

1,900
1,700
1,500
1,300
1,100
900
700
500
09/12

10/02

10/04

20091231=1000

10/06

10/08

10/10

10/12

Wind

71
TTM

MRQ

200

150

100

50

03/01

05/01

07/01

09/01

11/01

Wind

72
/300

/300

10

3.0

2.5
2.0

1.5
4

1.0

0.5

0.0

03/01

05/01

07/01

09/01

11/01

Wind

()

25

2011 1 6

2010 12 20
2010 11 01
2010 10 28
2010 10 22
2010 10 14
2010 09 28
2010 09 28
2010 09 10
2010 08 30

2011

LED

:
6639
:200120
:(8621)3852 1000
:(8621)3852 1090

:
1T111
:100044
:(8610)5979 9911
:(8610)5979 2177

:6
1103

:
5091914
10022
:(001)212 809 8800
:(001)212 809 8801

:(852)2841 8800
:(852)2841 8866

http://www.cebm.com.cn
Email:cebmservice@cebm.com.cn

()

26

2011 1 6