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1979

32.88
55
621.391

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30602 176
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045(01) 79

2402040000

32,88
61

, 1979 ,


...............................................................................................................................................................5
...................................................................................................................................................................7
..............................................................................................................................................8
.............................................................................................................................................................10
.......................................................................................................................10
1.1. ......................................................10
1.2. ......................................................................10
1.3. ............................................................................................................11
1.4. ..................................................................12
1.5. .........................................................................13
..............................................................................................................................................................16
............................................................................................................................................................16
2.1. .............................................................................................................................................16
2.2. ..................................................................................................17
2.3. ....................................................................................................................18
2.4. ..............................................................................................................................19
2.5. ............................................................................23
2.6. .................................................................................................................24
2.7. ..........................................................................................................25
2.8. ........................................................................................................................26
2.9. . ...............................................................................26
2.10. . ........................................................................................................27
2.11. ..........................................................................................................................28
2.12. .......................................................................................................................................28
...............................................................................................................................................................31
. ..................................................................................................31
3.1. , , .......................................................................................31
3.2. ....................................................................................................................................33
3.3. ...............................................................................34
3.4. ...........................................................................37
3.5. .......................................................................................39
.......................................................................................................................................................42
. ...........................................................................................................42
4.1. ..............................................42
4.2. .................................................................................................47
4.3. ...............................................................................................54
................................................................................................................................................................62
. ........................................................................................................62
5.1.
.......................................................................................................................................................................62
5.2. ...............................68
5.3. ......................................................................................................72
............................................................................................................................................................76
. .....................................................................................76
6.1. .............................................................................................................................................76
6.2. .....................................................................77
6.3. .......................................................78
6.4. ..........................................79
..........................................................................................................................................................82
.................................................................82
7.1. .................................................................................................................................................82
7.2. ...............................................................................................................82
7.3. .........................85
7.4. ................................................................................87
..........................................................................................................................................................89
. ...............................................................................................89
8.1. .................................................................................................................................................89
8.2. ....................................................................................90
8.3. ............................................................................92
8.4. ...........................................................................94
8.5. .....................................................................................................................................95
8.6. ........................................................................................96
8.7. .................................................98
5

8.8. ......................................................100
8.9. ..............................................................................................103
.........................................................................................................................................................106
......................................................................................................................106
9.1. ...............................................................................................................................................106
9.2. . ...................................................................107
9.3. ....................................................109
9.4. ....................................................110
9.5. ....................................................................................................112
9.6. ..................................................................................................................114
9.7. .....................................................................................117
9.8. ..................................119
9.9. . .............119
9.10. ......................................................................................................................122
9.11. ..............................................................................125
.........................................................................................................................................................128
....................................................................................................128
10.1. ................................................128
10.2. ..................................130
10.3. , ............................................................................132
10.4. ................................................................................................................132
10.5. . .........................................................................137
..........................................................................................................................................141
......................................................141
11.1. .............................................................................................................................................141
11.2.
....................................................................................................................................................142
11.3. . , .........................144
11.4. ..........................................................................145
11.5. ...146
.............................................................................................................................................151
...............................................................................................................151
12.1. ..............................................................................................................................151
12.2. ................................................................................151
12.3. ..............................................................................................................152
12.4. ..................................................................................................................156



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18

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19

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: [t0, t0+t+)=[t0,+t0+t)+[t, t+).
[t0, t0+t+) k , ,
[t0, t0+t) k, k1, ..., ki, ..., 0
0, 1, ..., i, ..., k .
: pk(t0, t0+t+) k
[t0, t0+t+); pk-i(t0, t0+t) ki
[t0, t0+t); pi(t, t+) i
[t, t+). .
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[t0, t0+t+), [t0, t0+t), [t, t+) ,
.
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pk(t0, t0+t+) pk(t+); pk-i(t0,t0+t)pk-i(t); pi(t, t+) pi().
.
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i=0, 1, ..., k pk(t+)i=pk-i(t)pi(), i=0, 1, ..., k. i=0,
1, ..., k ,

(2.13) ,
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2(t, t+)=o(t), 0. 2, 3, ... p2(),
p3(), ... . ,
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(2.13)

p1() p0():

(2.10) (2.6)
(0() 0 , . .
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, pk(t), .
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20

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t .
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1, 2, ..., n
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pk(t) . (2.17)
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21

pk(t) k t=const (t = 5) . 2.1. t


. 2.2.
pk(t) t=1, 5 10. t ( t=1
) ,
. t=10
pk(t)
( ).
k

pk(t) pik(t) k t [29].


pik(t) k tconst.
pik(t) . 2.3 t=1, 5 10. pik(t)
pik(t) , pik(t)=1pik(t).
F(z) .
F(z) ,
Z z, 1(z) ,
z . (2.17),

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( ) .
F(z) .
,
z :

22

(2.24) (2.26) M(Z)=(Z).


. (2.24)
,

M(Z).

. 2.4,

F(z) z
=1, 5 10.
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z.
(2.22)
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P(Z>), .
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2.5.

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t.
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[t0, t),
t0:
23

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t. pi(t)
(2.17).
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l =1
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24

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26


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(1),
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h ,
i- (i=1,2, ..., h), i, i-
i.
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, (m+1)- , m
(m+1)- . .
m- .
() ,
2- , 1- . ,
.

,
27

.
.
M(Zm), D(Zm)
(Zm) m-

(2.36) (2.37) ,

. m-
: (m=0)
(=).
2.11.


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.
F(t)=P(T<t), t0.

:
=1/M(T) ; ()
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(2.38) t,


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(2.24)-(2.26): M(T)=1/; D(T)=l/2; (T)=1/.

, . . ()=1 , , =1.

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2.12.


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.
h
.
h
.


28

. , t (t)

, .
t k (k
). i
i k

(2.41) (2.40),

, k
, P0 (k , ) = e k , , ,

k
1() e
:

1 () = 1 e k = 1 (1) j (k) j
j =0

1
= k + o().
j!

(2.45)

o()

(2.45) (2.44), (t ) = lim k +


= k, .
0

,
.
.

: 1. pk(t) k=6 ik(t)


k=6 =250
t=72 . 2. k
pk(t)?
. 1. ==250; t=(25072)/3600=5.
ik(t)
k=6 k=7: pi6=0,3840, i7=0,2378. 6(t)=i6(t)
pi7(t)=0,1462. pi6(t)= 1 pi7(t) =0,7622.
2. k(t)
(2.17): pk(t)/pk-1(t)=t/k. t>k k
pk(t) , pk(t)=pk-1(t) (t/k),
. , , t<k k pk(t) .

: pk-1(t)=pk(t) k=t, t ; pk(t) k=[t], [t]
, t, t .
29

t=5, pk(t) k=4


k=5. , [29]:
p4(t)=p5(t)=0,1755; p3(t)=0,1403; p6(t)=0,1462 ( p3(t) 6(t)
p4(t)=p5(t).

1. : ,
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2. .
3. ? :
.
4. ? : ,
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5. .
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6. ? pk(t)
k .
7. ?
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8. .
9. .
10. .
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11. ?
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14. m- .
, m- ,
?

30

3.1. , ,


. ,
,
,

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.
: , .
[t1, t2) y0(t1, t2)
,

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[t1, t2).
i , i- [t1, t2).

y 0 (t1 , t 2 ) = i .
i =1

:
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,
.

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, .
, 1 .
() . . .
- 1 .

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, t1 1 , t22
. . , ti i ,

31

k , .
ti
iti.
k

t .
i =1

i i

, ti/=i, i ,
i.
i(i=1, 2, ..., k):

(3.3) i=ti/ (3.1),

(3.2) (3.4) y0=, .


[t1, t2)
y(t1, t2) ,
,
.
-,
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.

. ,
0T , , t.
[t1, t2) , t2t1>. ,
[t1, t2),
(t1, t2)=(t2t1). t2 (. 3.1),
(. 3.1).

,

[t1, t2)
t2, .

(t1
t2),

[t1, t2)
, t1 t1 .
, t1
[t1, t2), (. 3.1), ,
t1 t2, (. 3.1).
t2t1>Tmax, =0. =.
,
[t1, t2),
32

t ,
. .
[t1, t2)
y(t1, t2)
.

. ,
. , ,
.
,
.
3.2.


, . ,
,
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.
.


.
,
. . 3.2
,
. -1 70%

30% , -2 30%

70% . -1
, -2 .


, .


60 ,


33

()
2 . (,
9 22 .) .
. 3.1.
,
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(a+b + c + d) . . ,
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k=y/y, y ; y
.

0,09 0,15.
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2030%.
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3.3.

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.; n;
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, 100 , 100
. 100 .
.

34

,
c.,
c., c, c . ci
i- , i i- .
k


. ,

: c=1,93,4; c.=0,71,0;
c.=1,01,5; c=610; c=610.
, ,
,
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p), -:
(); ();
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. (); -
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: =0,50,6; =0,20,3; =0,080,12; =0,040,1; =0,030,05.
-
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.

.


0,020,05. , -
, 0,0250,03.
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=0,150,2; =0,080,12; =0,020,05; =0,0250,03.
t.
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1. .

t., t, t., , to
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35

, , .
, t.=3 ; t.=78 . tc to
, . -
t
tc=1,5m, ; 1,5

, . - to=1 .

. t=1,5m+2,5 , 2,5

. ,
to = 0.
t
.

: , .
, TC
:
T=100110 ;
T.= 130140 ;
T.=120130 ; TT=100110 ;
=100110 ; : T=125130 ;
T.= 220230 ; T.=205210 ; =160165 ; T=125130 .

Ti
niippi, . .

ni i- ; ci,-
i- ; i; i- , ; k
, .
2. - .

t.
.
t., , (3.8).
- ,
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t.=0, ,
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.
3. - .
t - (3.10),
(t.)
t.. ,
t.=30 .
4. - .
, ,
t=1820 c.
36

5. .
t=1015 c.

,

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(3.12) t (3.11)
:

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. 3.3
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t (3.9)

(3.13) t (3.14)
(3.7),

(3.15) ,
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3.4.


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37

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y(t1, t2) y(t1, t2):
[t1, t2) ,
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).
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: (>0);
t(>t);
tp(>t);

; , r p(R>r);
r. (>0) p(>t).

[t1, t2) ()
():

t
t
M(c3(>t)) ():


: 0;
38

;
; ;
pt; .
.

.
,
,
,
- . , , ,
(
, ).
. , ,
.
( ).

.
.
,

- () ,
, -
.

.
,
,
, . .
.

( ),
.
, .


. , , [52].
3.5.

.
( ,
) ,
.

.
,
, , ()
, , ,
.
,
, .
,
.
,
.
39

. , ,
,
.

, . .
:
, , . .


, .
,
.
,
. ,
; , ; ;
.

0 =y0/,
=y/.


=y0/=f(y) =f()
.

,
. =f(y)


. 3.4.

.

.

(c) = D(c)
M(c) ( ):
V = D(c) / M (c).

M(c)=D(c)
limV = lim

M (c )

M (c)

D (c )
= 0.
M (c )

,
(). ().
(), ,
,
=1.
,
.
()

40

=0.

.
.
:
n=4000; n.=4000; n.=1000; n=300; n=100;
c=3,4; c.=0,7; c.=1,0; =10; c=10;
=100 ; T.=130 ; T.=120 ; TT=100 ; T=100 ;
=0,6; p=0,2; =0,1; =0,05; =0,05.
: , .
. , ,
(3.8):
t.=t.+tc+t.+T+to=3+1,56+2,5+7+100+0=121,5;
t..=151,5 ; t..=141,5 ; t.=121,5 ; t.=121,5 . ,
- , (3.10):
t=tc.o+tc+t.+to=3+1,56+2,5+0+0=14,5.
, - :
t=t.+t+t.+t0=3+1,56+2,5+30+0=44,5.
, - , to=20
. , , t=15 .
(3.11):
t=t. p+t p+t +t p+t p=
=121,50,6+14,50,2+44,50,1+200,05+150,05=82 .
t.=100 ; t.=94 ; t=82 ; t=82 .
, , (3.12):
y = nct = 40003,4(82/3600) = 309,8 ;
y. = 77,7 ; y. = 26,1 ; y = 68,3 ; y = 22,7 .
, :
Y = y + y. + y. + y + y = 504,6 .


1. ?
2. .
3. .
4. ,
.
5. ?
6. ?
7. ?
8. ?
9.
?
10.
?
11. .
12. ?
13.
, , ?

41

.
4.1.

. :
(
);
(1<)
();
, ,
i;

;

, , . .

F (t ) = P(T < t ) = 1 e t ,
.
1/=1, , =1.
. ,
,
, i.

.
.
, . . ,
i (i = 0, 1, 2,...,
), , .
.
1. ,
, . . ,
, ,
.
() ,
.
(
), (
, ) .
2. , i,
. i ( )
, .
,
, , .
,
t i (i=0, 1, 2,..., )pi(t). ,
pt .
i t .
. , t
42

i ,

, t,
.

t, i
i t.
t .
,
, (
).
:
t,
t , .
. .
. ,
. . (18561922 .),
.
V(t) t. t
i ( i), V(t)=i, i = 0, 1, 2,..., .
(+1) ,
. pji(t1, t2) , ,
t1 j, [t1, t2) i.
, . . ,
j t1 [t1,
t2). t1 t2. pji(t1, t2)
[t1, t2) j i. ,
, .
[t1, t2) t(t1<t<t2).
[t1, t2) j, t1,
i t2, [t1, t)
r(0r), [t, t2) r
i.

(4.1) .
pri(t, t2) , ,
[t1, t), , t
r.
(4.1) : [t1, t2) [0, t+),
[t1, t) [0, t) [t1, t2)[t, t+). (4.1)



.
t,
(0, 1, 2,... ,i,..., ) (0, 1, 2, ..., i, ...) ,
[t, t+)
,
, i i1 i+1,
43

i. , 0
, ().
.
(=),
i(t+) , (t+)
i.

t

t,

.
. 4.1.
,
.
i, i, i=0, 1, 2,...
, 0 (t+) i
.
1. t i1 ( pi-1(t)),
( ()).
[t, t+) i 1
i pi-1,i()=i-1(t)p(). () .
, t i1.
2. t i+1 ( pi+1(t)),
i+1 ( p i+1()).
[t, t+) i+l i
i+1,i()=pi+1(t)p i+1(t). i+1() ,
, t i+1.
3. t i ( pi (t)).
, i, . .
[ (1
p()poc i())]. i i
ii()=pi(t)(1()poc i()).
4. [t, t+)
, ,
.
().
14 , i(t+), (i=0, 1,
2,..., :

,
[t, t+] 2(t, t+)=o2(). p()=p1(T,
44

t+)2(t, t+)=r+o1()o2(). , o1() 2() ,

p r(). 0 r
. oc r()
r t ,
. r
(2.45)


, =1. .
r [t, t+) 0

, (), (4.1), oc r(),


(4.6), . ,
( , ,
. .) (). ,
pri(t, t+) [t, t+) r i |ri|2
pri(t, t+)=(), |ri|2.
- (4.3) () p(),
pi(t),
() .

pi(t), i=0, 1, 2,...,

45

,
, , ,
.
, i
.
. , t
( ), ,


i, i, i=0, 1, 2,...,
:


i
i=i ; ,

46

, ( ),
, , i
i=0. i=0 0=0.
0 i(1i)

. pi
( ),
i . , ( ),
, p.
,
, pt (
), ,

.
: p=/.

( pi pt (4.15) i j).
4.2.
.
(1) ,
, ,
.
(F(t)=1-t, =1).

pt, .
,
. (4.13) (4.15) k
k , :
47

(4.16) . , i
i,
. pi Ei,(), p
E, () E().
(4.17) (4.18) ,

(4.13) (4.15), , (4.16) (4.18')


;
=1.
(1) :

i :
y=t=/=/, ; t .
, , =.

, , , (i=),

(4.23) pi , t
i.

. . . ,
48

( ) ,
.
Ei,(y). 1. pi=Ei,(y) ,
t
,
, , i .
2. n(n) ,
. Ei,(y) ,
t i , . .

Ei , ( y ) = lim (ni (t ) / n,
n

ni(t) , t i.
3. ()
t, Ei,() t,
i, . . Ei , ( y ) = lim (mi / m), mi t,
m

i .
4. Ei,(y) ( T),
i ( v
). , ( ),
, p,
(4.22).
. .

y y . ,
=o, o,
, .

i ; i
i. (4.25)
, . .

.
(4.25) pi, (4.21),

,
,
1

(1 p ) = pi ) :
i =0

y0 = y (1 p ) = y (1 E ( y )).

(4.26)
49

(4.26) , , 0, . .
. ,
(4.23),

(4.24) (4.26) :

p=p. ,
,
, ,
, :

(4.28) .
E(y) (, , E() ,
) . ,
( )
E(y). , E(y)
.
D(y0) D(y) ;

(4.30) ,
. (4.29) (4.26) ,
. ,
, . .
.
(4.27), . .
.
. (4.21), ,
pi/pi1=y/i,
(4.31) , i<
(y/i)>1 pi>pi-1, i>y (y/i)<1 pi<pi-1. ,
i1 = y pi i .
50

pi=pi-1
i=y,
, pi i1=[],
.

i
i.

pi=f(i) =12
=20 . 4.2.

i y=6, 12,
18

=12
. 4.
=14, 22 30 . 4.3. pi=f(i)

k ( pk(t)=f(k)).
, .
. .
:
,
. ,
.
(4.26) i i1 y0(i)
y0(i1):
oi, i-
, :

. (4.32) o1=y(E0(y)E1(y)).
(4.22) E0(y)=1, E1(y)=y/(1+y). o1=y/(1+y).
o()=1 . ,
=0 ,
.
y=100, 50 10 o1=0,99;
0,98 0,91 . , ,
=yo/ , . (>50)
(0,01) ,
1520% o1. ,
.
.
1=121, 2=66 3=19
y1=100, y2=50 y3=10
E(y)=0,005. , o1 o . 4.1.

51

4.1

y,

o1

100
50
10

121
66
19

0,83

0,99
0,98
0,91

0,101
0,079
0,034

0,76
0,53

,
.
o1>2> ... >o.
,


.

, 2, 3,..., -

(. . 2).

. ,


, i- (i=2, 3,...,)


,
i1
.
i- ,
,
. ,

i,





, . . 4.4 4.5.
. 4.4 - o1, i-
, , , . .
oi=f(y), oi (4.32). oi=f(yi), yi
i- , . 4.5.

,
. , , i-
yi=2 , i=l o1=0,67 , i=10,
20, 40, 80 , i- ,
24, 36, 46 55%.
,


. . 4.5 , yi
52

.
, E(y). , pt=p=p=p,
, . . p=E(y)=p.
y=f() p=const (p1=0,005; p2=0,02; 3=0,05) . 4.6.
:
1.
(p=const)

. , =0,005 =20

y=11,1 , =40 =27,4 , .
.
=20 =40 ( 2 )
2,47
.
2.
(y=const)
,
, . . p3>p2>p1,
y=y1=const 3<2<1.
3.
(=const) ,
, . . 3>2>p1, =1=const
y3'>y2'>y1'.

,
=y/. . 4.7

=f() p=const (p1=0,005;


2=0,02; p3=0,05). . 4.6
,
:
) =const, 1<2<3, 1>2>3;
) =const, 1<2<3, 1<2<3;
) p=const, 3>2>1, 3>2>1.
p=const

,
: 3>2>1

, =const
,
( ).
( )
=f(p) =f(p) ( ) =const (. 4.8). , =const
: =const, p3>p2>p1,
3>2>1 3>2>1.
:
53

.
,
,



,
, .
, .
(0p1)

4.3.
.
(1<) ,
, ,
i.
F(t)=1-t, =1.

pt,
.

. i

; ,
. (4.37) ,
i ,
i.
(4.13) k=(Nk),
54

. i ,
,
,
i , , , ,
i.
. 2 ,
. , (4.38)
, (4.16),
(4.38). .
(n),
().
=n=const.
i (i=0, 1,..., ...,)

, .
,
. , . . ,
(=).
. n==1.
(4.38) : p0=l/(l+); p1=/(l+). p1
, ,
, 1=.
,
, .
(t , t + )
lim 1
. 1(t, t+) ,
0

[t, t+), 0,
, 0 , t ,
, , [t, t+t)
( +()),
( ()). 1(t,
t+)=0(+()),

,
.
(4.38) (4.39) ,
:
55

. . , i
, .
, .
pt :

(4.15),
:

(4.38), (4.41) (4.44) , pi


,
pt, ,
( )
.
(4.44) (4.43) , ,
,
1 , . . (n, , )=pt(n1, a,
). , (, a, )<pt(n, a, ), <(t)
(4.44), (, a, ),
, a, . ,
pt(n, , )=(n+1, a, ).
,
y : =/y.

0 : y=yy0. 0
:
56


n ( ):

,
, , .
(4.46) , M(i)
M(i)=na.
(4.45) (4.46),

;
, ,
.

(4.43) , :
, pt(<t)
, =, = 0, (4.43)
pt=. , .
,
, ,
, , . .

57

,
(4.28),

.
,
,
, ,
.

:
.
na=f() =0,005, . 4.9.
,
,
,
, . , =30 ,
n1=50 n2=100, na1=21,65
n2 = 20 , , , y=18,7 , . .
n=50 8,2% , n=100, 16%
, . , :
) ; )
,
. o,
, (o=(1
)), E(na). , , ,
n=50, =E(n)=0,01 12% p=E(na)=0,2 6%
, . ,

.
, .
,
. i

i=(i), i .
.
12....n.

, , .
(i)
i .
.

,
(4.44),
o
, , j(j=1, 2,..., )
n . .
1.
58

, n
12...n,
n

n . , y = a j = na
j =1

o .
2. j(j=1,...,n) :
j ,
; j o
.
4.1.
1=20, 2=40 3=60 .
1 y1y=12,4 , y1=11,1 ,
2y2y=30,0 , y2=27,5 , 3 3y=49,0 , y3=45,0 .
: ) pi, 1, 2 3; )
.
, ) (4.28) pt==p=E(y). :
E1(y1)=E20(11,1)=0,0050; E1(1y)=E20(12,4)=0,0127;
E2(y2)=E40(27,5)=0,0053; E2(y2)=E40(27,5)=0,0144;
E3(y3) =E60(45,0)=0,0054; 3(y3)=E60(49,0)=0,0172.
)

: 2=40 2=172%, 2=9,1% 3=60 3=219%, 3= 8,9%.


1, 2 3 : 1/1=13,2; 2/2=18,9;
3/3=24,6.
, ,
, 10%
2,53 , . . 1025
.

4.2.
, ,
y1=10, y2=20 y3=40 .
.
: ) , E()10,005 E(y)20,02; )

.
: )
() :

,
, ,

y1=10

y2=20

y3=40

()10,005

1=19

2=31

3=55

E(y)20,02

1=17

2=28

3=50

)
:
59

, : )
y=1040 , E(y)10,005 E(y)20,02 ( 4
) 10%; )
( , )
(=1040 )
.
2 6580 %.

4.3.
:
=10 , =100, 50 25 ;
0,005. 0 ,
, .
. , ,
=100, 50 25 0,005
1, 2, 3: a1=0,1 ; 2=0,2 ; 3=0,4 ; 1=18; 2=18; 3=16.
0 y=10 E0(10)0,0050=19.
,
, =100 50 , (0,005)
( 5%), n=25
( 16%).

4.4.
= 8 n=30
=0,1; 0,3; 0,5 .
: ) o; )

,
= .
. p=(, , )
t=(n+1, a, )
=(30; 0,1; 8)=0,0047; t=(31; 0,1; 8)=0,0058;
p=(30; 0,3; 8)=0,3286; t=(31; 0,3; 8)=0,3479;
p=(30; 0,5; 8)=0,6629; t=(31; 0,5; 8)=0,6761.
(4.47) o=(1) :
=0,1 =0,0043; no=2,9871 ;
=0,3 =0,2551; o=6,7041 ;
=0,5 =0,4958; no=7,5630 .
, ,
E(y) =(1E(y)):
=0,1 =3 ; E8(3)=0,0081; yo=2,9757 ;
=0,3 =9 ; E8(9)=0,2892; yo=6,3972 ;
=0,5 y=15 ; E8(15)=0,5193; yo=7,2105 .
, :
=0,1 p/nao=0,0016; 8(3)/o=0,0027;
=0,3 /na=0,049; 8(9)/o=0,045;
=0,5 /no = 0,088; E8(15)/y=0,072.
: 1)
, ; 2)

(p/nao<E(y)/yo), , ,
60

(p/nao>E(y)/yo).


1.
?
2.
?
3. ?
4. ,
.
5.
r ?
6. , ,
, i ?
7. , ,
, i .
8. Ei,(y).
9. , , .
10. ?
11. , ,
, .
12. ,
.
13.
. .
14.
. .
15. ?
16. ?
17. pi, pt, , .
18. , .
19.
, .
20. .
21. , pt, ,
?
22. ,
, . .
23. ,
. .

61

.
5.1.

. (1<) ,
,
.
.
,
.
. , ,
.
,
: F(t)=1et.

, ,
, .
i t. ,
i=0, 1, 2,... . t
i< , . i=+r
( ), r=i
(r ).
(i=0, 1, 2,...)
.
. , , -,
,
, , -,
,
.
. (i=0, 1,
2,...)
,
[t, t+) i
i1, i, i+1.
( )
, (4.12).

, i=, i=0, 1, 2,....

62

, . . i<i, i>.
< y<.
, (5.2)

(5.1) (5.3) :

, 0i, . .
- (5.4) pi
(4.21) Ei,(y).
pi
Ei,(y) .

. . ,
, , .
(4.31) pi=pi-1(y/i), ,
i.
, r+1 :

, , y<, 0>1> >2>..., . .


, , ,
, , ,
, , . .
pt ,
r=0, 1, 2,... . ,
63

(>0) ,
, .

(5.5),

(5.8) . .
, , pt .
(5.8) , pt,
(>0), .
, pt :

(5.8), 1, ,
, .
(5.6).
, ,

, (5.4),
.
, pt. y=f() pt=const y=f(pt)
=const ( =f() =f(pt), =y/)
, (. . 4.44.7).
. pt
,
. , , pt = 0,02; 0,05; 0,1 =1030
10, 15, 20%
, .
pt
=f(pt) =const,
. =, =(1pt)=(1
()). ,
, . , pt= 0,2
=4, 10 20 1012% ,
.
,
.
( )


.
.

.
:
1. (5.6) , ,
64

, ,
, . , ,
, (. .
, ).
2. (y< <1
), . ,
,
1(=/(1)), .
, ,
pt ,
, .
:

? , ,
.
( ),
, . ,
, .
,
.
.
.
, .
,
. ,
,
( ),

.
.
.
. pt, ,
, (>0) ,
,
.
pt=p(>0)=D(y) ,
,

, .

:
, .
p(>t) , ,
, t; pi(>t)
, ,
i, pi ,
, . . i .
,
,
r=0, 1, 2,... , . .
i=, +1, +2,...,

65

pi(>t) i(i),
(i) .
(i+1)-.
(
), pi(>t) , t

(i) . , pi(>t)
, t ( )
(i) .
( )

F (t ) = p(T < t ) = 1 e t .

F (t ) = i (t ) = 1 e t .
,
, =. pj ,
t j ,
(t ) j t
e , , t (i) ,
pj =
j!
i,

(5.5) (5.11) (5.10) ,

p(>0) - (5.8). t
, =1


(>t)=f(t) (
) .

. p(>t)=f(t)
=1 . 5.1 =5.
=y/=0,5 0,7
( ).
:
1.

, . . p(>t) ,
t,
p(>t)
. , , =5 0,5
0,7 t=1 (>1) 0,01 0,085 (
8,5 ) p(>t)=0,01 t 1 2,4 ( 2,4
).
2. p(>t)
66

t . , =5 =0,7 p(>t)
0,01 0,1 t 2,4 0,85 ( 3 ).
, (>t)
t t p(>t). ,
=0,5 p(>t)=0,01 5 10 , t 1 0,25
( 4 ).

p(>t) ,
, , t, . . ,
,

. 5.1 p(>t)=f(t).
p(>t) p(>t). , , =5 =0,5
(>1) 8,5 (>1).
,
(>0)>E(y), . . ,
, ,
.
t, p(>t) E(y).
t t*.
(5.12) (>t)=f(t) , t
p(>t) p(>t)0 t. , (>t)>E(y),
, t* p(>t*)=E(y),
p(>t)>E(y) t<t* , , (>t)<E() t>t*. (5.12),
t*:

t* ,
. 5.2. t*
t*=f() =1, 2, 5, 10, 20, 30.
, . . =1. 5.2
,

t*, (>t*)=E(y).
,
. t* = 1
, =1, 2, 5, 10
, 0,53; 1,34; 3,95; 8,7 .

E(y)=p(>l)=0,34;
0,275; 0,195; 0,154. ,
t*
(>t*)=
=(). ,

67

(>1). ,
=1
.

, (>0) (>t), :
, ;
, (
); r. :

(5.5) p+r=r, r=0, 1, 2, ..., ,


:

(5.22) ,
, ,
.
,
, r. , , =0,6 =10
=0.02, =0,25 r=0,15,
=5 =0,12, =0,5 r=0,35.
5.2.

. , ,
. 5.1. (1) ,
, .
: , ,
;
, y<.
:
h. h
h=1.
p(>t).
(<t). , p(>t)=1p(<t). t0
k, . . ,
k . k<, ,
h, , . . ,
t0, (t0+1) . k>,
(. 5.3) ; [t0, t0+1)
v , [t0, t0+2)2 ,..., [t0, t0+t)t (
t ).
, , t0,
, t. t0 k,
(k+1). , <t
k+1t+, , (k+1)
68

, t0, t t

, (t0+t)
. kt+1.
: pi(t0) , t0
i ak(t0) , t0 ,
k:

, - (5.23) ,
t .
pk(t0) , t0 k.
:
pk(t0)1 , t0 k, (t01)
(k), pk(t0)2 , t0
k, (t01) r
(k=+r). t0 .
pk(t0)=pk(t0)1+pk(t0)2.
pk(t0)1. (t01) ,
a(t01). h=1,
t0 . ,
, (t01), t0
. t0 k,
[t01, t0) k .
k
p k = e .
k!

pk (t0 )1 = a (t0 1)

k
e .
k!

k(t0)2. (t01) +r
; p+r(t01). t0
. t0 -

69

(5.23), ,

t:

(5.24)
. (5.25)
.
(>t)=f(t)
(=y/=/). . 5.4
=1.
, p(y>t)=f(t)
,
:
t p(>t).


.
; .
, , ,
,
. .

:

t ; t
; , :
y=t<1. t (t=1),

.
t.

70

=1
-
(5.27)

(5.28)
(5.18) (5.20),
p(>0)=y.
=0



,

.


.

. ,
, (>t) =0,005 =0,5 =5 t 0,73
1,33, ,
. . 2 .

,
. ,

2 . ,
. , =1 =0,9

1,74.


. 5.5,
=f() (>t) =0,005 t=1; 2.
, ,

. ,


. ,
(>t)=0,005 ,
t=1,
=3 1=0,25
2=0,45
, . . 80%, t=2
1=0,43 2=0,65 , . . 50%.
;
.
,
.

,

.
71


.
p(>t)=f(t) =0,5; 0,7 0,9 . 5.6.
.


. , t

t (>1)
p(>t) t . , , =0,9 t=5
(>5)=0,26,
2(>5) =0,33.
t. ,
t ,
()

h=0,05l .
t (>t)


t

.
(
)

(h<0,005 ),


t=100 .
,
. ,
( ,
)
> .

t,
,


.
(p(>t)=f(t))

(=0,5; 0,7 0,9 ) . 5.7.
5.3.

:
.
.

.
:
, ( ,
, ), .
72

,
().
,
t>7080 ,
(=10100 ).
,
((>0)) (())
. 2
3%.
.

.
.
. , , ()
. ,

.
12 ,
,
, .
, ;
-
,
.

.
, ,
(>0). ,
(>t) t

, . ,
( )
h = 0,1 =0,9 .
(>0)=0,9. , ,
(>5)=0,33 p(>20)=0,04, . . 33%
0,5 4% 2 .
p=E(0,9)=0,05
=3 =1 .
.

.
.
,
, .
( )
. (
) , ,
, , ,
.
, .

.
,
73

.
, ,
( )
( )
.

. ,
,
.
5.1.
: =50 100 ,

() =0,02. ,
, , r.
. =50 100 E()=0,02
: 1=50 y1=40,2 ; 2=100 y2=88.
(5.8) , p(>0):

- (5.18), (5.20) r (5.22):


=50 =[p(>0)]/(y)=0,0096; =1/(y)=0,102, r==0,4;
=100 =0,012; =0,083; r=1,06.
, : 1)
, ,
; 2)
p(>0)/E(y) r.

5.2.
: =1, 2 5,
- ,
h=0,3
t=0,6 (>0,6 )=0,01.
. . t=t/h=2 . p(>2)=0,01 =1, 2
5 : =0,31; 0,58 0,81 .
:
=1 =2 87% =2 =5
42%.


1. ,
.
2. .
t?
3. ,
pt ?
74

.
5. p(>t)=f(t) 1>2>3 =const?
p(>t)=f(t) .
6. t*? t*=f() =const.
.
7. , ,
, .
.
8. ?
9.
:
.
10.
.
?
11.
:
.
12. .

75

.

6.1.

, ,
.

.
, ,
, , ,
, ()
. ,
,
, . .
.
, ,
-
. , -

( ). :
, ,
,
(- ). -
0,020,03 ,
0,350,5
.

,
.
,
, .

.
.
(
), ,
, ,
. .
. ,
. ,
.
.
,
. ,
, . ,
, .

(), .
, , , ,
, =1.
76


, ,
,
t=1/ t=1/.
,
,
. ,
.
, .
.
, ,

, , +
,
,
z=1/(+). H=/(+)
1H=/(+) . H
.
.
6.2.

,
,
. ,
, , ,
:


t
,
( t ,
, . . ),
1 .
, ,
. t , ,
, .
t,
t.
t+t.
L
, t

L. .
.
, , H.
, H .

77

H , . . (H)2
. . ,

, , H=1 (=0),

, ,
,
.
(6.3) (6.4) (6.5), - (6.2)


t, ,
=ct. ,

6.3.


.
, , 0
:
; ;
.
. 4
+(), 0;


k
k+(),
0.

i+(),
0;

(ji)

(ji)+(),
0.

. k+O(),
0.

78

(t+) (i, j, k),


i j k
.
. 6.1. pi,j,k(t+) pi,j,k(t) ,
(t+) t (i, j, k). i=0, 1, .... j;
j=0, 1, ..., 1; k = 0, 1, 2, ... (t+)
(i, j, k) (t, t+), 0,
t:
1. t (i1, j1, k)
. pi,j,k(t+)1=pi-1,j-1,k(t)+o().
2. t (i1, j1, k+1) (k+1)
. pi, j,
k(t+)2=pi-1, j-1, k+1(t)(k+1)+().
3. t (i, j, k+1) (k+1)
,
. pi, j, k(t+)3=pi, j, k+1(t)(k+1)+o().
4. t (i+1, j, k) (i+1)
. pi, j,
k(t+)4=pi+1, j, k(t)(i+1)+().
5. t (i+1, j+1, k1)
(i+1) .
pi,j,k(t+)5=pi+1, j+1,k-1(t)(i+1)+o().
6. t (i, j+1, k)
(j+1i) , .
pi,j,k(t+)6=pi,j+1,k(t)(j+1i)+().
7. t (i, j, k)
, . .
, ,
, (ji) , ,
k .
pi, j, k(t+)7=pi, j, k(t)[1ki(ji)k]+().
, ,
(t+) (i,j,k), - ,

(6.9)
, (t+)
, . .
(i, , k), j= pi,,k(t+).
pi,j,k(t+) pi,,k(t+)
, . 4
, ,

pi, j, k pi,,k.
6.4.

:
,
79

c0.


:
=/=/. -

0 ,

, . c1
, ,

, c2 .
c0,

( ,


),

c0=c2+(1+c2)c1=c1+c2+c1c2.
c2 - (6.4),

L: c2=L1.
c1
[24].
c1 ,

,


. c1

=/, T=1/ u=/. c1
z
,
, ,
,
:
c0
, ,

.
, c0 :
,
; H, ,
; z
80

.
c0=f() /1=f()
, , z,
, p1 , .
. 6.2 6.3 =20; =0,5; =1 0,75; z=0,2;
0,5; 1,0. z t.
t=25 t=120
, 1=1 2=0,75 t1=170 t2=136 .
, c0 p/p1 ,
z. c0
. , z=0,2 H=0,75 0,6 0,9 c0 0,6
1,1, . . 1,8 . c0 H. =0,9 z=0,2
H 0,75 1,0 c0 4,3 .
z c0
(>0,6 ) H, . , =0,8 H=0,75
z=1,0; 0,5; 0,2 c0 = 0,75; 0,8; 0,9, H=1c0=1,4; 1,55;
2,0.

, z ,
. , H=1, z=0,5, =0,5
/11,2, =0,9 /1=3,5.
.
: c0 =30
: t=20 ; t=140 ; =0,6 ; =0,4; H=0,9; z=0,09.
.
: t=(t+t)/(lH)=162 =0,045 . c1
.
: T=z/H=0,1; u=(1)/ 0,1.
T , =0,6 =30 c1: p=0,004;
c1=0,006 45. L=l/(lH)=1,56 c0=L+c1L1=0,57.


1. ,
?
2. ?
3. , ?
4.
?
5. , ?
6. c0
, , z?

81



7.1.

,
,
. , ,
,
, .
,
.
.
- . s=2
, , .
, 50 s250>1015.

, .

.

.

, ,
, .


,
-
. ( )
,
,
.

. ,
,
, , .



.
.
,
.
.
7.2.
-. ,
, ,
: , ,
. X,
82

[0,1],
, .
X [0,1],
f() :

f() F()
X,
[0,1], . 7.1.

X,

[0,1],
,
0 1. ,
=0, a1a2..., a1a2...
,
1/2 0 1/2 ,
, [0, 1].

X ,
{ai, i= 1, 2, ...},
0 1.
.
k ,
0, a-1a-2...a-k. , ,
[0,1], ,
0, 1/2k, 2/2k, ..., 2k1/2k
1/2k.
[0,1] , . X,
[0,1],
. .
,
- (
,
).
X, [0,1],
: 1) ; 2)
() ; 3) (
).
(, )
,

. ,
, ,
, . ,
.

,
83

[0,1]. ,
, ,
-
, [0,1].
,
, , .
,
. X,
[0,1],
3, F()=p(<).
0 1. ,
, [, b)
f(),

X , . .
.

X . 7.2,
F() .

X f()=
,
.
,
[, b),
, .
[, b)
,

X
(7.5), ,
[, b).
, [0, )
,

84

,
X (7.6)
.

,
. ,
zi ,
(7.6).
7.3.


.
,
, . ,

, , ,


.
,
( )
.

, . .
.

.

.


.

.
,

, - .

. ,
( )
-
,

.

, ,
-
, .
.
, ,

.
85

,

. ,
( ,
- ), .

,
.
(. 7.3) s h
() .
.
(i, j, k), i ; j
; k .
i- j-
k- (i, j, k).
k bk ,
k,

k- ,
[0, ak+bk).
[0, k+bk),

, -
m- .

n-
- . ,
.
.


. .
: ,
;
, ,
.
(),
m (,
).
,

. , (
86

5%o)
,
. ,
.

.
7.4.

, ,
, . .
(). ( ,
).
, ,

ri ( ) i- ; xi
() .

, 2

,
.
:

(z*n-1) , . .
, (, +)
() ; Sn-1(z*n-1) ,
(1)- .
, .
(1)19 z n*1 = n / 6 Sn_1(z*n_1)
.
(n1)>19 (. . n>20),
Sn_1(z*n_1)

( )

0(z) ,

0(z) . (7.11) = z n*1

,
n
87

p(z*n_1)
, . . ,
, (, +). ,

, n50. ,

.
.
,
.
3 (): n1=16,
n2=25, n3=49.
, : =0,005 =0,01.
:
p(z*n-1) =0,95.
. z*n-1 p(z*n-1)
n1 [29]. p(z*n1)=0,95 n11=15 z*n-1=2,13.
= z n 1
*

,
n

1=0,0053. (1<p<p+1)=(

0,0003<p<0,0103).
n2=25 n3 = 49 z ,
. p(z*n-1)=0,95 z=l,96. n2=25 n3=49
2=0,004 3=0,0028 (0,001<<0,009) (0,0012<<0,0078).
, , p(z*n-1)
.


1. , [0,1]
?
2. ,
?
3.
?
4. ?
5. ?

88

.
8.1.

() ,
, ,
.
, d ,
. g. d
, ,
. ,
.
. 8.1 .
: g=4;
=4k1+2k2+k4=16; d=k1+k2+k4=10;
k1=1; , , k2=3; ,
, k4=6.
, . 8.1,
, .
.

( ) (
). . 8.1 ,
. 8.1 . 3 4
, 510 .

.
.
8.1

. . 8.1 ,

,


.
. 8.1

,

.

89

d - (g=2)
( k1
k2). (g>2) d
, g, d
.
.
() d, d<. ,
(. .4)

, .

,
, , , . .
.

, , -
, -
.
,
, , ,
,
, ,
. ,

.
,
,
, . .
,
. ', ,
( ) .

,
(
).
, , ,
,
(
), (
).
8.2.
.
, . . ()
. , . 8.1
( 210- ), ,
. .
. -
g, g
.
. 8.1 , , , ,
. 8.1 , , . g = 4,
d = 10, =16,
90

. d. ,
, ,
. ,
, .
. 8.1,
.
,
.
.
, ,
,
. ,
,
, ,
. ,
,
.
, ,
.
.
, .
.

l<<g. =g -
(=d), =1 g
- . , g ,
>1.
.
,
, , , d
.
,
, y0(p, , d),
(p, , d) ,
, .

0(p, =d), ,
d , p y0(p, ,
d)=dHC(p, =d). [HC(p, , d)]/g<d(p, =d),

(8.2) , ,
d. (=100)
d=10 =0,001 (8.2) :
91

>1,6.
,
=24.

,

. .
,
, g,

8.3.

. :
;
;
; ,
, .
,
.
( )

, .
,
, g, k1, k2, ..., kn
d.
,
g (8.3) , g , .

g,
.
(g=2)
k1 k2,
g>2 . , ,
, =27
d=10. g

g=6, 7, 8, 9, 10. ,
6,
8 10

,
7 9,
,
g=6
,
,

,
92

, g=6 ( ).
, 60 27
. , ,
.

, k1, k2, k3 k6 ,
10, .
(8.7) (8.6), d=5k1+2k2+k3=17.
, k13, . . k1 0, 1, 2, 3.
k1 = 3 2k2+k3=2. k2 0
1. k2=1, k3=0, k6=6.
, , (8.6) (8.7),
: k1=3; k2=1; k3=0; k6=6.
, , .
. 8.1. . 8.2
, . 8.1.
8.1.

10

11

12

k1

k2

k3

k6


,
.

,
. g, d

( ) , .
. . ,
,
.
,
.
, .
d10 .

.

,

.
93


()
.
1%
j, . . .
j j-
.
=27 d=10
. 8.2.
8.2

10

0,19 0,13 0,12 0,11 0,1 0,09 0,08 0,07 0,06 0,05 1
j
5,13 3,51 3,24 2,97 2,7 2,43 2,16 1,89 1,62 1,35 27
j

3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
1 27
6



6
3
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6 27


, g
. , g = 6, a
.
6, 3, 2 1.
. 8.2.
9 . 8.1
. 8.2.


. .
. 8.2 .
3 4 , 5, 6, 7 8, 9, 10
.
,
, , , ,
.
8.4.


:
1) (
) , ( );
2)
(
);
3) ,
.
d
94

.
. ,
, g (8.3).
gd .
r r+1
, , r=[(gd)/]=[],
.
, r+1 , 2 ,
r ,

2,
, :

, . . ,
r+1 , 2, r ,
2=1. , . 8.1
: =gd/=410/16=2+8/16. , =8, 2=168=8.
,
r .

, .
() r r+1 ,
g. , , . 8.1, r=2
: , ,
, .
( ).
, . ,
d g , ,

. lr r- ; lr+1 (r+ 1)-


.
d :

(8.10) ,
:
1) g d ',
(8.10) .
,
, ;
2) g d r- ,
2/g, (r+1)-
, [/g]. ,
.
8.5.

, k ,
. g
, (=k).
95

. 8.3, , (,
). g,
, , =2
, , . , .
8.3, (i=1), . 8.3 (i=2).
.
. 8.3 . .
8.3, , . g
=3. ,
.
() ,
.

, .
,

24,

-, -
.

,
.

(
,
-)
,

,
, .
[10], .
,
,
.
8.6.

,
, d
g,
Cd d. ,
, d
.
d . ,
, .
, ,
, , d
96

, v (. . 8.1).
-
d . , , . 8.1,
, 1016,


,
d

. . 8.4, ,


. . 8.4
d=2
=3,

g=Cd=C23=3.
, . 8.4, d=3 g=4. 8.4
=4, d=2 g=6.


, ,
, .
,
. 8.4 g=Cd=24=6
, ,
4 5
3 4.
,

(,
) .

. ,
,
, d v
, d! .
.

, (8.12) (8.13),
. , =10
d=4
(8.12) g=d=410=210.
(8.13) g=d!Cd = 4!C410=5040.
, d,

97

. ,
.

.

. . 8.5 ,
. 8.4 , . ,
.
,
.
8.7.

:

d ;
;
,
F(t)=1t;
,
( d ), .
.
. 4,
e pji(t) , ,
j, t i, ,
j. V(t) t,
V(t) ,
.
V(t) , ,
, . . V(t0). , ,
ji(t) t=t2t1
(. . t2 t1). , , V(t)
. ,
j i . , pji(t)
. . t
, j
,
j ,
.

i ( i
)
.
Pji(t)
j i
.
98

, , 2
. +1
, .
( )
(. 8.6).
, i<d 0== ... =d-1=. d d+1
, ,
d .
, d , .
i i .
i<d i=0, id i>0. ,
i , 1i.
, id i,=(1i). ,

(4.12)
:

(8.16) (8.17) (8.18) , i<.d i=0,

:
p = i pi .
i =0

i<d i=0,

p = i pi .

(8.20)

i=d

(8.20) i (8.19),

99

(8.21)

(1

) = 1 x<d. (8.21),

k =d

i.
i
i , ,
.
i . i
- .
,
g=Cd d
(Cdd=l).
,
i , id. ,
d i , . . Cdi. ,
, i
,
. i

(8.22) ,
, .
i (8.21),


.
B,d(). (8.23) [30].
8.8.

.
,
, , .
,
, , . .
.

.
, ,


. ,
. 8.3 8.4.
100

=f(, , d, g, ), . .
, , d, g
().
.


,
.
,
.

.

, (8.24),
d.

, .
, ,
,
.

.
. ,
, ,
, d ,
,
, /.
1 ( )
,
, . . H1=y/.
, d
Hd=Hd1=(y/)d. , . .
(8.25) (8.24).
:



. (8.25) (8.26)

, , d.
. ,
,
i .
, ,

101

, ,
d , :

(8.28) . 1943 . .
1947 . . . . 1956 .

.
, [. (8.28)],

. ,
, , .
. (
) -
,
0 ,
.
, ,

0 :

, 0
, d,
0
(d=).
(8.30) (8.31)

.
.
.
d=260,
=1200 =0,0010,5.
'. 0,

, ,
, d
, , d
.
,
102


d , d
.
() , d
, ymin (8.32) ,
(8.25), . .

, , (8.33),

().

Kl (8.34)
() ().
,

, , ,
,

(2/y)=1), K=0,53.
, . . ,
, (2/y)<1, =1.

(8.35)
:

(8.35) (8.37)

, I. ,
, ()
, . I,
( ), ,
(8.34) K=0,53.
8.9.


, . (8.25) (8.26)
.
(8.29) (8.31)
.
d - (8.36) K=0,53

:

103

d
.
[12].
(8.38)
,

d ,
.

=fd()
= 0,005
d . 8.7.
, , ,
, (8.38). . 8.7 ,
, .
( ).
. 8.8
=fp(y) d=10 .
,
( )
.

=0,001 . 8.9

( ). ,
d.
.
: d=10,
II (y=10 = 0,005.
, -,
'.
1. :

2. , :

,
. =17,

, . =20 p=0,0087;
=21 =0,00540,005. , =21.
3. ':

, , o=(1)=10(1-0,005)=9,95 .
, d =0,005,
: y=d=3,96 . , d
=0,005,
104

,
'.


1. .
2. ?
3. ?
4. ,
, . 8.2, .
5. (g=2) 14 (=14)
d=10.
6. d=10, =30, g=6.
7. d= 10 =16.
8.
=16 d=10.
9. =3, d=2
=1 .
10. , .
11. , ( )
.
12.
.

105


9.1.

,

().
, . 9.1,
( ).
k
k l .
().
Hi,

2 ,
Hj, (
).
,
,
q,
q.

,
,


( ).
(. . 8.1)
, .

, , ,
.
, ,
. , , ,
.
, ,
, . .
.
.

. , ,
, . ,
.
,
, .
, . 46,
, . 8,
. ,
,
, .
- .
- , ,
106

,
. , . 9.1.
Hi Hj
.
.
,
i, ,

,
. . .
, ,
,
.

.
, , ,
- ; ,
. ,
,
.
,
(,
),
.
,
.

:
.

. , , -
.
,
,
, .
9.2. .

, . 9.1,
, .
Hj
(q=1). ,
, .
, . .
Hj,
,
.

, . 9.1 .
, .
, .
, : 1)
, ; 2)
; 3)
.
107

,
, i ,
, ,
i .
, i , ,
. i, 0im,
: (i = m)
(i=0).
i m ,
, Wi, i
( ) -i,
1:

:
1. , Wi Hmi. (
, .)
2. () .
i (9.1)
, i . (
.)
(9.1) Wi
-i, . . .

. i
m

mi m

()
, , . .

a Ei(y) i ,
. .

( )
1

, Wi Hm-i , . . Wi= Wm, i (y); Hm-i= , m-i(y).

108

Wi i

im i; ,
.
Hm-i i

, (9.2)
(9.3) .
,
, (9.4) (9.5) .
,
.
,
.
,
,
.

, (9.1) Wi Hm-i.
9.3.

()
.
, ,
, ,
, ( ).
,
, Wi Hm-i
:
Wi , Wi=Cimbi(1b)-i i
i; b , ,
;
-i, , -i=m-i,
,
, .
Wi Hm-i (9.1),

k ,
. Wi , Hm-i
,
109

, .
(9.1),

,
:

q
, ,
, Wi=Cimbi(1b)-i; H(m-i)q=c(m-i)q.
(9.1) ,

,
,


q.
, (9.8) (9.9)
(9.6) (9.7), , q=1.
9.4.

()
m . -
,
m .
q1 Wi
, H(m-i)q ,
Wi=Cinal(l)n-i (m-i)q=c(m-i)q, ,
.
:

110

-
,

.

q>1 , . .
,
q1 ()

() q,

q1:

b=(/).


(9.8).
,
,
:


m .
, , ,
.
, q1 Wi,
, Wi=Cinai(1)-i; (i)q=(-i)q.
(9.1),

, :
111

, ,
,

,

. f
,
. 9.2.

, af, a b
bf.
9.5.

. 9.19.4 ,
, - ,
mq, . . ,
( ).
, ,
, ,

, ,
.
.
. 9.3 , g
(), .
mq, g, ,
gmq, v ,
.
: mq<<gmq.
mq .

', . 8.
, ,
v
, d
, d/d,
yd

p .

=d.
d ,
yd
(9.14) .

,

112

y ,
d . ,
(9.15), cmax = y / = d p
. ' v
d , yd/d,
d cmax = d p .

d, ,
':

(. . 9.3)
, ,
, = mq, . .
, .

yd=ymq ,
.
(=)
- (9.9),
q


, .

. :

(9.8).
, ' ,
mq ,
, ymq/mq, ymq (9.19). mq
, (9.20).
, ,
,
(9.16) :
ymq (9.19) (9.20).
=mqymq/cmax,
q1 :

:
113

(
);
; mq , ; b
, ;
; ymq , mq ,
(9.19);
, (9.20).
, ,

.
. ' (9.16) (9.17) (9.18),
d .
, ,
,
. ,

, ,
.
/, q
. ,
,
: mq(g/2)mq, g
, .
9.6.

,
. ,
. 9.1.
.
,
, q
. . 9.1 Hj,
(q=1).

, .
( ) q=1 .
dmax=mq.
, ,
,
q=1 q ,
,
.
i ,
i , iq


(>) , (m+1)- , , -
,
.
()

114

(1)- ,
, (1)q. ,
di
( )
:
di Wi, Wi
i ,
.
Wi
, i , . .
di. ,
i ,
di, pi, ,
di. di (9.24),

, dmin (. . ),
, dmax (. . i)
(9.25) , ,

dmax dmin.
, , dj
dj+1, j ,

,
.
, ,
d. (9.25) ,

r=1 nm r=m n>m.


(9.29) (9.26).
,
:

, (9.30),
115

(j ) ,
(9.26).
, (9.28) , . .
p=Ad + B, (9.30) ,

d .
:
(9.33) (9.27) ,
d.

(9.34) :

,
Wi ( ).
dmin (9.23),
, .

m , .
, d
:

f=2 (. . 9.2)
:


. ,
- (8.36).
:

. (8.36)
0,750,85, . [12].
. (9.23)
dmin , .
(9.36) d,
d (9.35). d
,
- (9.37) d
. , ,
116


, (9.37).

9.7.

. ,

.
9.4

,

.

,
(. 9.4);
,
(. 9.4).

, . 9.4,

.


( ,

).
.
. 9.5
,
. . ,
, . 9.5
.
,

,
. ,
. (
). . ,
. 9.5, ,
, .
k1,...,k4, a
l1,...,l4.
117


,
. , ,
(. . 9.5),
. . 9.6 .
.

. , ,
.



.

,

,
,
.
, . 9.4,

: 1==1,2/N; 2=2,3/1,2; 3==M/2,3.


.
,
, , ,
. ,
. , ,
, ,
(

),

.
9.7.

.
(
) ,
( )
.
( )
,
, .

( ).
, ,
, , . . ,
118

, ,
.
9.8.


.
.
: ,
,

()
,
,

. ,



(

).

, . 9.8 9.9.
,
.
.

.

.
, . ,

.
, , :
,
. ,
(
).

,
.
9.9.
.

, ,
.

,
.
( ) .

,
119

. .
,
.
,
,
.
( )
,
.
,
,
. - ,
, ,
, .

.
( ) (
),
.
,
.
( ) dcp, ( ) dcp,
( ) dmax
. d,
,
. :
i i-ro ; ki i-ro ; s
;
qr r; r
r- ; ;
i, i+1 ;
x=1,2/N ; =M/s-1, s
.

yi i-ro .
(9.38) :

,
.
dc ,
.

,
.
dmaxks.
120

,
,
.

:

dcp,

r- ,
,
( ).

yor r- ; o .
(9.44)
, .
yor/r
, .

,
.
(9.42) ,
,
.
(. . 8)

(9.45) , ,
r , r,
, rd
. r

.
,
,
1 1,
,
.

s-


, ns
,
121

, ,
(. 9.10) j
( s1 ). s--
(s1)-
. , ,
. ,
, . ,
, .
, ,
.
9.10.

,
, ,
.
. ,

( ), - ()
.
,

,
.
, .

.

,
. , . 9.4,
,
. 9.11. ,
(
), : k2=m1;
2=k1; k3=m2; n3=k2=m1.
. 9.11 ,
(
). Ai,
i, 1 2, i,
i


2 3, ,

( ).
, ,
122

( A ),

.
. 9.11 ,
(
).
, ()
.
, , Ai
1 2, ii 2 3, jB
,
( ).
, (. 9.11),
(. . 9.4)
.
. 9.11
( ),
.
, i , m3
, .

q , , . 9.11,
a j q m3.
. 9.11 . 9.4
, , .
- ( ),
- ( ).

,
, .
,
.
p=f(, 2,... ,i,... ,s), p , a i
i-ro , i,
,
( ). ,
,
.
() ,
,
, ,
.
- ,
. 9.11a, 1 ( A), 2 ( i) 3 (
B), q1=11, q1=12 q3=13.
, , ,
, q A1 = q1q 2 ,

A1 = 1 q1q 2 = 1 (1 1 ) (1 2 ).
1
m
A = mA11 = [1 (1 1 ) (1 2 )] 1 .
,
123

(AB) ,
A
B:

, . 9.11
(9.48). , (. . 9.4)
-
(9.48).

.
,
,
. 9.5,

. 9.12. . 9.12

.
. 9.5
,
. 9.12, , .

,


.
,

. ,

.
.
9.12
. 9.12, , (. 9.12),
-
- () , . 9.11.

1 2 3 . 9.11.
, - (9.49). ,
- ,
.
-
- , ,
,
124

.
,
.
.

,
. ,
,
, .
9.11.


, .
.

.

.

.

, ,
.
,
.
,
,
.

.

.
,
, .
. .
: , (ai),
().
,
, ,
.
, .
, ,
.
s
, ,

mi i-; i ,
i-.
,

.
125

yoi , mi i-; ai ,
i-.
(9.51) 1 (9.50),
:

1
,
, m2,...,ms
a2,..., as,
.
,
.
2 (s1) , ,
/2=...=C/ms=/2=...=C/as=0,
, :

(9.53) (9.56) i=2, 3, ...,s s- .


, o,
mi ai, s- .

(9.56),
, :
(9.53) (9.58)
.
N ,
, 1 .
s,
s s (m1,...,ms)
(a1,...,as)
(o Cmin).

1.
, .
2.
?
3. ,
( )
, . 9.4, (N1 = M1).
4.
?
126

5.
n1=10, m1=20, q=2?
6. , . 9.1,
?
7. ?
8. , .
9. ?
10. ?
11.
?
12. ?
13. ?
14. ?
15. - ?
16. .
17. , -, - ,
.
18. - ?

127



10.1.

.
.
, ,
, .

.

-

.

.
i-
ri ,
(. 10.1). i-
pi (i=1, 2,... ..., ).

.
,
pi (i=1, 2. ..., n), n,
r, , . . p=f(p1, 2,..., p, , r1, r2,...
,rn).

p max = max{pi , i = 1, 2, ..., n}


i

.

,
r ,
,
n

, ,
, (11), (12) . ., n- (1).
, , , . .,
n

n- ,

(1 p ),
i

i =1

128

, (10.3).
r .
,
. , -
, - (10.3) .
i0,01 (i=l, 2, ..., n) (10.3)
:

, , .
(10.4) ,
.
, (-
) , ,
. ()
, ,
.
.

, () .

,
.
,
.
.
0,02
0,03;
, , 0,04.
, ()
0,005; III 0,001.
.
0,035
0,11.
() (), ()
0,02 0,03; 0,01.
, ()
0,005; III 0,001.
.

() 0,030,125.
. 10.1.
10.1

I
()


0,005
0,01
0,01
0,002

0,01

0,01

0,001
0,001
0,001

.
129

,
, 0,1.
0,01.
-4, -20, -,
- 0,003; -2 -3 0,007.
,
.
10.2.


,
,
.

.
, .

, ,
,
0,33 ,
() .
.
, ,
, .
,
, , .
, ,
, ,
:

ni i- ; i
i ; j
j- ; aj
,
j- .

i- i

i- ci
i-
ti.


.

. , I ,
, (),
I,
, I (.
130

10.2). ,
I,
.
, I,

y , ; y()k
, k- (); .
I , ,
I ,
tc.o
t..
, I.
- 1
, .

1,5 , ; i
i- . I
pi , pi
i-
.
I

I t I
:

I I.
() ,
,
- ,
() .


(t =0,61,0 ). , 0,99
131

.
, ,
,
.

.
.
10.3. ,

() () ,
. ,
i- yAPI,-

t ; t I
I; y Ii
, I , i-
.
, , y

t ; t
- ;
, ,
.

.
, ,

t ; t.
; y. ,
.
, ,
.
10.4.

. ,
, ,
. ,
,
.
,
.

.

.
.

15 (. . 3.2). 1 ,
15 , t1, t2, ..., tr,
132

.
, ATCj

ij k- .
y*ij(tk).
m

.
.
. ATCi
, i . ,
i- (10.15):

(10.16) (10.14)
:


ij (j=1, 2, ..., ).

133


(. 10.3).
. ATCj
, ATCj . ATCj
j- (10.15)

(10.17)

ij (i=1, 2, ..., m)

(10.20)

(10.19) (10.24) ,

ij (i, j=1, 2, ..., m)
, . .
(10.15) ||*ij(tk)||.
,
yij(tk)
yij.

ij (i, j=1, 2, ..., m) ,
,

, ,

(10.26) (10.27)

. . , ,
134

, .
.

. ,
ij
, ATCj.
, , ,
.
*ij(i, j=1, 2, ..., r) , ATi
ATCj. , ATCj
*ij
.

, ,
.

, :

kij ,
ATCj
:

. 10.4 kij=f(i),
. ATi i kij
.
(10.15)
Y i(i=1, 2, ..., m)

kij , , j,

,

ATi

ATCj.

135

.
, ATCj y'ij (i, j=1, 2, ..., m)
, ATCj,
, :

,
, .
(10.33) yij,

fij:

(10.33) (10.34) ,

fij i ATj
ATCi ATCj
,
. fij = 1 (i, j=1, 2, ...,).
.

.

Yxi (i=1, 2, ..., ) ||fij||.
||Yij||.

(10.34). i

, yij
:

||fij||
fij .
.
i yi
. ATCj
yj
ij, ATCi ATCj.

136

(10.38) (10.34),

(10.40) j , , i
nii=1,


. . 10.5

,
. . 10.5

, b,
.

Yi (i=1, 2, ..., )
||nij||.
||Yij||.

(10.38).
fij ij
. ,

.
10.5. .

, ,
, .
,

.
.
.
yi,

137

() ; (z)
; z .
(10.44) ,

0,5, . . 50% .
,
,
:


. a ( y ) = y ,
:

(10.46) z ,
,
. z
0,6742. =0,005
0,75, 0,9 0,02,
. ,
:

(10.47) ,
: ,
=yp/y. , y=l =1,674 =1,674, =100
y= 106,7 =1,067.
.
, ,
.
,
, .

.
,
.
,
. , ,
, y. :

yp1
, (
, =g).
y2
( =1).

138

y.
,
d, . . 10.6

=. /
v
( 2, 3, 4);
v
( 1).

,

mq=20, =0,005 =0,4 .
,
.

[14].


.

,
, .


, .
10.1.
: , 1 : y1y=
504,6 ; y1= 475,4 . , ,
( ).
. 10.2.
10.2

, ,

1
2
3
4
yiy
504,6
403
554
375
yi
475,4
605
275
508
ATd
:
n11=1; n12y=0,53; n13y=0,71; n14=0,42;
n11=1; n12=0,69; n13=0,4; n14=0,45.

.
. (10.38):

,
:
11y=200,7 ; y12y=161,2 ; y13y=156,1 ; y14=88,2 .

139

10.2.
: ,
:
yp1 =10 ; yp2 =15 ; yp3 =20 ; yp4 =25 .

k1=0,25; k2=0,35; k3=0,4.
, .
. - (10.48) ( yp.
:
y1 =8,076 ; y2 =12,513 ; y3 =17,257 ; y4 =21,768 .
, ,
4

y = yi = 59,614 .
i =1

y=0,99y=0,9959,614=59 .
:
y1 =k1y=0,2559=14,75 ; y2 =20,65 ; y3 =23,6 .
- (10.47) : yp1 =17,34 ; yp2 =23,72
; yp3 =26,87 .


1. ,
?
2.
.
3. , , .
4. .
?
5. .
6. fij.
7. ?
8.
?
9. .
10. ,
?
11.
.

140



11.1.

, ,
,
.
(, , ),
,
. ( ,
)
. ,
,
, ,
.
,
.
, .

,
.


,
. ,
,
.

( , ),
(
). ,
. , ,
,
.
,
.
, . .
. ,
,
, .
( ,
, )
, .
, .
, ,
,

.
,
, :
141

, ( );
,
, ; ,
,
( ), .
,
,
, ; ,
( ) ;
(
), ,
.
11.2.

.

().

(,
)
( )
( ). ,
, ,
. 11.1,
, ,
( ),
,
ACB ( )
( , . .
, ).
( ) , ,
ADB.
, ,
( AB), ,

, .
(RAB). ,
, RAB.
,
D (YAD) ACD , AD (
) , y,
RAB ( yAB, ),
RAD ( yAD, AD).
,
,
.
,
, ,

.
. v ,
. ,
,
142

.
,
, 1
, 1 .
. 11.2 , ,
,
. R..
, ,
.
, ,
, . .
, ,
.
, .

()

, . .
( ), 2 (
).


.
, 2 R,
: z=1, D=0. z<1, a D
; z>1 D>0.
, ,
, : , , R D.
, ,
,
D=0.
R D>0.
.
:

- (11.3) (11.4) , , R, D .

R1, R2,...,Rk D1,
D2,...,Dk,
:
R=R1+R2+ . . .+Rk;

D=D1+D2+ . . .+Dk. (11.5); (11.6)


,
.
,
.
143

.
, ,
R
D>0 (. 11.3).

,
R D
- (11.5) (11.6).
. 11.3
,
R, D
,
.

,
R D , 1
(.
11.3) R D.
(11.3) (11.4),
R D (. 11.3)

1 .
,
. , , ,
,
, . . = 1 + . ,

= 1 .

1 , -
.
.
11.3. . ,

,
, , .
. 11.1, , -
. ,
( , ,
) ,
, ,
. ,
,
, ,
, . .
( ).
, -
.
() ,
, ,
,
.
144

,
,
( ) ,
.

, ,
,
.
.
,
-
,
. ,
,
.
,
,
,
. , ,
.

.

(
), .


(, , ).
;

.
,
.

,
.
,
,
() .
,
.
() , ,
.
,
. , , ,
,
, , , -
,
.

(. .. 7).
11.4.

11.1,
145


.

(. . 11.3)



.
.
, (. 11.4)
. , .
.
, ( )
(. 11.4).
, y , C CB
,

. , . 11.4,

, 1 + .
2 , 3 .
.
, ,
,
y,
, , (. 11.4 ). ,
. 11.4
.
. 11.4 ,
. 11.4 ,
(), ,
.
. ,


( ).
,
, , ,
, .
.
11.5.

(,
) (
), .
, (. -. 11.2) . 11.1 (
)
146

ADB. ,
, , AD DB,
. , ,
,
- ,
ADB . ,

, .
, , ,
.

. ,
.

.
(
), -
, ,
. ,
( )
. ,
, ,
.

( )
( ).
(. . 4)
, v k .
(. . 8)
k () . ,
,
.
, k
, k ,
k1 k2.
,
-
.
, ,
.
,
. , (


1/.

,
.
. 11.5

.
147

(t),
0(t), .
k .
, k, (t)
k (k
) , k-1
k 1 (k 1 ) ,
k
k-o .
. 11.5 ( )
.
i (i
) ,
, (t) .
k
k
( Bk, 1k).


k,
()

. 11.6 .

1 A2,...,Aj
k,
Bk ( k ).
1 (. 11.6 ) zk k
( ); A2 (.
11.6) zk,1,
k, k+1, k
, , , zk, 2,
k . . 11.6,
k+1 ,
.
, j- j1
(. 11.6 ). k
AJ j.
z , z.
,
i i+1 i1 ( ,
) /(+i) i/( + i),
0
, k, . . Fk(t)=p{kt},
.
k
( k) :

, =l/, +1=0, - (11.7) :

148

=/.
k, . . k
( Hk),
:

, t-1=0, tk :

k
k ( ), k=k+k-1. ,
k k-1 ,

= 1,..., .
,
, ,
,
.
( , )
Bk Hk,

.
,
(,
) , . . ,

, .

.
.
.

1. .
2.
?
3.
?
4.
?
5. ?
6. ?
7.
?
8.
?
9. ,
?
10. ?
149

11. ?
12. ?

150


12.1.

: 1)
; 2)
; 3)
.

,
.

: ;
; .
: ,
;
; ,
, , ,
; ,
;
.
.
,
.
(. . 3)
, .
,
. 9 22 .

, , , .
,
.
, 2
4 .
, .
12.2.

:
;
;

,
();

.

,

.

,
151


.

,
, , .
,
.
() , ,
.

, , , .

, , ,
.
.

: , , .
. 12.1.
R, ,
, , :

(t) t; U .
, -, ,

k .
,

.

i- i- ; .

. ,
,
. .
, , .

.
12.3.

:
;
.

.
152

( )

( )

Nj, nj j-
; Xj, j j-
; k, m ,
,
k

N j = N ,
j =1

.

.

n
j =1

= n

.
:
, ();;
(); .
, ,
. ,
(. . 12.1)
R, ,
, -.
a
, R,
U, :


. , ,
, .

; =/t
t.
153

.
12.2.

. ,

,

h . 12.3.
,
, ,
() X
.

.

: ,
, .



.

,
(),


, .
,


,
154

. .
,
. ,
.
.
.
, , ,

. , ,
,
.

(x) ,
(12.6); .
,
. ,
,
,
, ,
.

z , ,
.
p(z) z
. 12.1.
12.1

1,2816

1,6449

1,96

2,58

3,29

3,9

(z)

0,8

0,9

0,95

0,99

0,999

0,9999

, z p(z)
.

p(z)

V=(x)/x
,

()
.
(12.10) (12.12) ,
n , n>2050.
.

, ( . ).

155

z*n_1 .
p(z*n-1) . . 12.2
z*n-1
(z*-1) =0,95 0,99.
12.2

p(z*n-l) =
=0,95

12,7
1

4,3

p(z*n-l) =
=0,99

63,7 9,92 5,84

10

15

20

30

40

00

3,18 2,77 2,57 2,23 2,13 2,08 2,04 2,02 1,96


4,6

4,03 3,17 2,95 2,84 2,75

2,7

2,58

n= z n1 z ,
n=20 50 . z z n1
[29].

(12.10), (12.12) (12.13) 1 n / N , N
.

. , ,
.
.

.

, .


.

.
: (. . 10 )
.
12.4.

,
, ,
, , ,
.
(12.10) ,
, ,

.
510% 0,95
0,99.
n
p(z), , (12.12)
156

V (12.15) (12.16) ,
,
.
.
12.1.
: 1850
, T=99,5 , (T)
=82,5 .
: p(z) = 0,99.
. .
, .
(12.12)

12.2.
: 10 11 , n = 10
( . 12.3).
:
10 11 p(z*n-1) =0,95.
. .
(12.13).
(. 12.3):
12.3

i
yi
yi-y
(yi-y)2

10

10

498 500 495 504 495 485 502 491 503 497
1
1

3
9

2
4

7
49

2 12
4

144 25 ' 36

i =1

0
0

= 4970

10

( y
i =1

y ) 2 = 298

z*=2,26 k= 1=9 (z*n-1) =


0,95.


1. ?
157

2. ,
.
3. .
4. .
5. ,
.
6. ,
.
7. , .
8. .
9. , .
10. , .
11. , .

1. . . . . .: , 1966.
2. , . . . .: , 1961.
3. / . . . . .: , 1978.
4. . . / . . . -. .: , 1969.
5. / . . . . .: ,
1976.
6. . ., . 3., . . . .: ,
1976.
7. / . . . .: ,
1971.
8. . . . : , 1975.
9. . ., . ., . .
. : , 1972.
10. . ., . . . :
, 1974.
11. . . . : , 1975.
12. . ., . ., . . . .: ,
1971.
13. . ., . . . .: , 1970.
14. . 3., . . . .: , 1969.
15. . ., . ., . . . .: , 1960.
16. / . .,
. ., . . . .: , 1975.
17. . ., . .
. .: , 1975.
18. . . . .: ,
1976.
19. . ., . ., . .
.. .: , 1978.
20. . . . : , 1977.
21. . . . : , 1976.

22. . .
. .: , 1962.
23. . ., . . . .:
, 1967.
24. . ., . .
. .: , 1970.
25. . ., . . ( ).
: , 1975.
26. . ., . . . .:
, 1968.
27. . . (). .: , 1970.
158

28. 2183576. . .
29. . .: , 1966.
30. . . . . .: , 1979.
31. Lotze A., Botsch D., Schehrer R. Tables for overflow variance coefficient and loss of gradings and full available
groups. Stuttgart, 1966.
32. Palm C. Table of the Erlang ioss Formula. Second edition. L. M. Ericsson. Stockholm, 1954.
33. Wilkinson R. I. Nonrandom traffic curves and tables. Bell telephone laboratories, 1970.
34. Telephone Iraffic theory tables and charts. Part 1. Siemens aktiengesells-chaft, 1970.

35. . ., . ., . . . .: ,
1970.
36. . ., . ., . . . .: , 1968.
37. . . , .: , 1968.
38. . . . .: , 1968.
39. . ., . . . .: , 1966.
40. . ., . ., . . . .: , 1977.
41. . . . .: , 1978.
42. . ., . . -4. : ,
1976.
43. . . .: , 1970.
44. . . . .: , 1966.
45. ., . . .: , 1966.
46. ., . . . .: , 1965
47. . ., . . . .: , 1976.
48. . . - . .:
, 1953.
49. ( -). .: , 1962.
50. . . . .: . 975.
51. . . .: . 1966.
52. . . . .: . , 1971.
53. / . . . . .: , 1977.
54. : . ./ . . . . .: , 1971.
55. . . .: , 1967.
56. . . . .: , 1963.
57. . . . .: , 1974.
58. ., . . .: , 1972.
59. Pollaczek F. Theorie analytigue des problemes stochastgues relative a un group de lignes telephonigues avec dispositiv d'attente. Paris, 1961.
60. Takacs L. Combinatorial methods in the theory of stochastic processes. Wiley, N.-Y., 1967.

61. ., ., . . . , 1973, . 35.


62. . ., . .
. .: . .: , 1977, . 9198.
63. . ., . . . , 1978,
1.
64. . ., . .
. .: .
.: , 1975, . 7583.
65. . . .
. , 1977, 2, . 83 88.
66. . . . .:
. ..: , 1977, . 6780.
67. . . .:
- . .: , 1969, . 4956.
68. . .
. , 1957, . 2, . 1.
69. . . . .:
!. .: , 1974, . 146162.
70. . .
. , 1959, 2.
159

71. . . .
. , 1977, 1, . 8893.
72. . .
. . , 1977, 2, . 9599.
73. . . . .
, 1979, 2, . 107114.
74. Lotze A., Roder A., Thierer . PPL-A reliable method for the calculative of Point-to-Point Loss in link systems.
8-th ITC, Melbourne, November, 1976.
75. Wilkinson R. 1. Theories for toll traffic engineering in the USA. BSTJ, :1956, 35, 3, p. 421514.

160


...............................................................................................................................................................5
...................................................................................................................................................................7
..................................................................................................................................................8
.............................................................................................................................................................10
.......................................................................................................................10
1.1. ......................................................10
1.2. ......................................................................10
1.3. ............................................................................................................11
1.4. ..................................................................12
1.5. .........................................................................13
..............................................................................................................................................................16
............................................................................................................................................................16
2.1. .............................................................................................................................................16
2.2. ..................................................................................................17
2.3. ....................................................................................................................18
2.4. ..............................................................................................................................19
2.5. ............................................................................23
2.6. .................................................................................................................24
2.7. ..........................................................................................................25
2.8. ........................................................................................................................26
2.9. . ...............................................................................26
2.10. . ........................................................................................................27
2.11. ..........................................................................................................................28
2.12. .......................................................................................................................................28
...............................................................................................................................................................31
. ..................................................................................................31
3.1. , , .......................................................................................31
3.2. ....................................................................................................................................33
3.3. ...............................................................................34
3.4. ...........................................................................37
3.5. .......................................................................................39
.......................................................................................................................................................42
. ...........................................................................................................42
4.1. ..............................................42
4.2. .................................................................................................47
4.3. ...............................................................................................54
................................................................................................................................................................62
. ........................................................................................................62
5.1.
.......................................................................................................................................................................62
5.2. ...............................68
5.3. ......................................................................................................72
............................................................................................................................................................76
. .....................................................................................76
6.1. .............................................................................................................................................76
6.2. .....................................................................77
6.3. .......................................................78
6.4. ..........................................79
..........................................................................................................................................................82
.................................................................82
7.1. .................................................................................................................................................82
7.2. ...............................................................................................................82
7.3. .........................85
7.4. ................................................................................87
..........................................................................................................................................................89
. ...............................................................................................89
8.1. .................................................................................................................................................89
8.2. ....................................................................................90
8.3. ............................................................................92
8.4. ...........................................................................94
8.5. .....................................................................................................................................95
8.6. ........................................................................................96
161

8.7. .................................................98
8.8. ......................................................100
8.9. ..............................................................................................103
.........................................................................................................................................................106
......................................................................................................................106
9.1. ...............................................................................................................................................106
9.2. . ...................................................................107
9.3. ....................................................109
9.4. ....................................................110
9.5. ....................................................................................................112
9.6. ..................................................................................................................114
9.7. .....................................................................................117
9.8. ..................................119
9.9. . .............119
9.10. ......................................................................................................................122
9.11. ..............................................................................125
.........................................................................................................................................................128
....................................................................................................128
10.1. ................................................128
10.2. ..................................130
10.3. , ............................................................................132
10.4. ................................................................................................................132
10.5. . .........................................................................137
..........................................................................................................................................141
......................................................141
11.1. .............................................................................................................................................141
11.2.
....................................................................................................................................................142
11.3. . , .........................144
11.4. ..........................................................................145
11.5. ...146
.............................................................................................................................................151
...............................................................................................................151
12.1. ..............................................................................................................................151
12.2. ................................................................................151
12.3. ..............................................................................................................152
12.4. ..................................................................................................................156
...........................................................................................................................................................161

162

, ,


. . . . .
. . - . .
. .

17
9.04.79 .
. . 27.09.79 .-15100 .-.
. . . 14,0 .-. . 15,18 12 000 ..
17336 . 106 55 . . 101000, , . 2
101000, . , . 40

163