𝑁𝑡=𝛾𝑡+𝑛0=𝛾𝑡+207358

DATA PENDUDUK PEKANBARU

RMSE
Tahun t Nt Nt1 Nt2 lambda-a 1 2
1985 0 207358 207358 207358 0 0 0
1986 1 211563 234850 232226.9 4205 542284369 426998093.022
1987 2 212709 262342 257095.9 2675.5 2463434689 1970193727.21
1988 3 309626 289834 281964.8 34089.33 391723264 765142177.326
1989 4 311165 317326 306833.7 25951.75 37957921 18759910.9992
1990 5 375512 344818 331702.7 33630.8 942121636 1919258193.62
1991 6 394133 372310 356571.6 31129.17 476243329 1410859291.09
1992 7 397330 399802 381440.5 27138.86 6110784 252475408.144
1993 8 401477 427294 406309.5 24264.88 666517489 23352644.6902
1994 9 412918 454786 431178.4 22840 1752929424 333441828.142
1995 10 431464 482278 456047.3 22410.6 2582062596 604339709.328
1996 11 481681 509770 480916.3 24938.45 788991921 584836.522815
1997 12 512123 537262 505785.2 25397.08 631969321 40167884.7018
1998 13 523076 564754 530654.1 24286 1737055684 57427877.0163
1999 14 531635 592246 555523.1 23162.64 3673693321 570638955.749
2000 15 586223 619738 580392 25257.67 1123255225 34000763.249
2001 16 597971 647230 605260.9 24413.31 2426449081 53142858.2961
2002 17 625313 674722 630129.8 24585.59 2441249281 23202015.135
2003 18 653435 702214 654998.8 24782.06 2379390841 2445405.35182
2004 19 689834 729706 679867.7 25393.47 1589776384 99326909.1338
2005 20 720197 757198 704736.6 25641.95 1369074001 239022621.769
2006 21 754467 784690 729605.6 26052.81 913429729 618090417.208
2007 22 779899 812182 754474.5 26024.59 1042192089 646404798.664
2008 23 799213 839674 779343.4 25732.83 1637092521 394799411.622
2009 24 802788 867166 804212.4 24809.58 4144526884 2028836.31211
2010 25 897768 894658 829081.3 27616.4 9672100 4717862148.45
2011 26 937939 922150 853950.2 28099.27 249292521 7054112376.41
2012 27 964558 949642 878819.2 28044.44 222487056 7351147178.38
2013 28 999031 977134 903688.1 28274.04 479478609 9090268397.24
2014 29 1011467 1004626 928557 27727.9 46799281 6874062605.1
2015 30 1,032,118 1032118 953426 27492 0 6192436322.88

lambda1= 27492 lambda2= 24868.93 1186040688.74 1670515922.67

RMSE1= 34438.9414579
RMSE2= 40871.9454231

2020 35 983356 1169578 1077771

HASIL PROYEKSI
Tahun t Nt1 Nt2
2025 40 1307038 1202115
2026 41 1334530 1226984
2027 42 1362022 1251853
2028 43 1389514 1276722
2029 44 1417006 1301591
2030 45 1444498 1326460
 Chart Title
1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Column C Column D Column E

 DATA PENDUDUK PEKANBARU
RMSE
Tahun t Nt Nt1 Nt2 lambda-a 1
1985 0 207358 207358 207358 0 0
1986 1 211563 218753 222198.935 0.020076 51698970.0777411
1987 2 212709 230775 238102.059 0.012739 326366395.088924
1988 3 309626 243457 255143.394 0.133639 4378382190.4918
1989 4 311165 256836 273404.404 0.101469 2951680590.7505
1990 5 375512 270950 292972.383 0.118769 10933246702.6088
1991 6 394133 285840 313940.873 0.10704 11727444620.4317
1992 7 397330 301548 336410.11 0.092903 9174235030.99477
1993 8 401477 318119 360487.505 0.082588 6948539646.15634
1994 9 412918 335601 386288.157 0.076534 5977904607.54267
1995 10 431464 354044 413935.402 0.073274 5993888942.82574
1996 11 481681 373500 443561.403 0.076621 11703129993.734
1997 12 512123 394025 475307.784 0.075343 13947043233.3051
1998 13 523076 415679 509326.302 0.071175 11534166587.5832
1999 14 531635 438522 545779.579 0.067251 8670017785.98845
2000 15 586223 462621 584841.873 0.069284 15277525312.2559
2001 16 597971 488044 626699.917 0.066193 12084015893.7706
2002 17 625313 514864 671553.806 0.06493 12199038045.7584
2003 18 653435 543158 719617.957 0.063766 12161085981.886
2004 19 689834 573006 771122.135 0.063263 13648664907.1812
2005 20 720197 604496 826312.547 0.062254 13386806717.0278
2006 21 754467 637715 885453.023 0.061503 13630977124.8459
2007 22 779899 672760 948826.274 0.060214 11478685065.3935
2008 23 799213 709731 1016735.25 0.05866 8006956010.34441
2009 24 802788 748734 1089504.57 0.056402 2921818902.81704
2010 25 897768 789880 1167482.11 0.058619 11639764871.5391
2011 26 937939 833288 1251040.63 0.058048 10951932107.6929
2012 27 964558 879080 1340579.55 0.056934 7306454928.79468
2013 28 999031 927389 1436526.92 0.056155 5132522704.09593
2014 29 1011467 978353 1539341.39 0.054645 1096514238.22888
2015 30 1,032,118 1032118 1649514.45 0.053497 0

lambda1= 0.053497384 lambda2= 0.069126 8233564777.71652

RMSE1= 90738.9925980916
RMSE2= 211891.179722153
RMSE
1800000
2
0 1600000

113123112.595676 1400000
644807433.080502 1200000
2968354369.11121 1000000
1425862617.52187 800000
6812788399.73483
600000
6430777310.52782
400000
3711233041.25144
200000
1680138695.47798
709148529.606988 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
307251743.917183
1453103642.11506
Column C Column D Column E
1355360142.98414
189054193.261546
200069105.120747
1907511.78960575
825350648.365246
2138212096.98317
4380183819.9678
6607760888.96495
11260509315.9738
17157338158.0711
28536424055.9144
47315928579.2681
82206393520.324
72745702451.8171
98032627752.8582
141392206815.729
191402677448.917
278651366902.955
381178371061.219

44897872044.0459
 DATA PENDUDUK PEKANBARU
RMSE
Tahun t Nt Nt1 Nt2 lambda-a 1
1985 0 207358 207358 207358 0 0
1986 1 211563 241075.5 234827 0.0018128290716 870987490.719477
1987 2 212709 274303.32 261972 0.0011537273341 3793860182.12216
1988 3 309626 307048.58 288795 0.0150162419724 6643103.6693274
1989 4 311165 339318.28 315301 0.0114355981828 792607259.196377
1990 5 375512 371119.34 341493 0.0150368990951 19295496.6835981
1991 6 394133 402458.55 367376 0.0139781394966 69314746.839023
1992 7 397330 433342.62 392952 0.0121953497793 1296909101.09261
1993 8 401477 463778.17 418225 0.0109143412181 3881436401.94522
1994 9 412918 493771.71 443200 0.0103007505227 6537323074.45772
1995 10 431464 523329.66 467879 0.0101509530678 8439299616.81592
1996 11 481681 552458.34 492266 0.011431023008 5009432000.02414
1997 12 512123 581164 516364 0.0117268179242 4766658179.9589
1998 13 523076 609452.75 540177 0.0112436292135 7460942718.68941
1999 14 531635 637330.67 563709 0.0107459346368 11171575541.6374
2000 15 586223 664803.73 586962 0.0118768627523 6174931446.82226
2001 16 597971 691877.8 609940 0.0115136367127 8818487480.28495
2002 17 625313 718558.68 632646 0.0116751987798 8694756620.69571
2003 18 653435 744852.07 655084 0.0118533693861 8357081149.94004
2004 19 689834 770763.61 677256 0.0122609455917 6549601865.67989
2005 20 720197 796298.84 699166 0.0124802254313 5791489833.56047
2006 21 754467 821463.22 720816 0.0127967663041 4488493715.98989
2007 22 779899 846262.15 742211 0.0128712323959 4404067087.73342
2008 23 799213 870700.92 763352 0.0127943704123 5110522388.97311
2009 24 802788 894784.77 784243 0.0123474724446 8463405466.27399
2010 25 897768 918518.85 804887 0.0141172737762 430597901.288868
2011 26 937939 941908.25 825286 0.0145332959064 15754946.6230178
2012 27 964558 964958 845445 0.0146198942298 159972.764286411
2013 28 999031 987672.93 865364 0.0148935109019 129005671.543474
2014 29 1011467 1010058 885048 0.014661364647 1985239.62269477
2015 30 1,032,118 1032118 904500 0.014629364104 0

lambda1= 0.014629364 lambda2= 0.0119022339433 3920858893.60153

RMSE1= 62616.7620817424
RMSE2= 56770.6740834809
 k= 2529040

RMSE
2
0
541232511.365992
2426823414.2579 Chart Title
433929280.174377 1200000
17105652.5391812
1000000
1157281725.63489
715962943.970018 800000
19170000.8618746
600000
280500975.677398
916978593.311499 400000
1326027113.44939
200000
112035067.504198
17987177.5183053 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
292460318.358675
1028745407.71472 Column C Column D Column E

546465.495574014
143263679.362511
53779625.2579413
2719153.64978156
158205120.530728
442313128.761374
1132373016.86633
1420417095.10066
1286027298.37276
343922968.687746
8626931088.04141
12690617290.043
14187994380.265
17866760449.1493
15981642268.4076
16286439302.3469

3222909435.89281
7 28 29 30 31