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July 19, 2011

China: Metals & Mining: Coal


Equity Research

Weekly flash: We prefer coking coal as steel continues to rebound


Domestic coal prices diverging; global prices edging lower Thermal coal prices fell slightly at Qinhuangdao port, but edged higher in mining areas. Power shortage alleviation and ample port/power plant
inventories prevented prices at ports from rising. Prices at Qinhuangdao fell an avg. Rmb5/ton (Datong quality mix 5,800Kcal/kg down to Rmb900/ton). Mining region prices were mixed, up Rmb5/ton in Datong and Baotou and Rmb15/t in Xilin Gol but down Rmb10/t in Shuangyashan. Prices in other mining regions were largely flat. Domestic coking coal prices also edged higher. Mine-mouth clean coal and coking coal (G80) prices rose Rmb20/50/t in Lvliang, and ex-factory prices for clean coal also rose Rmb20/t in Chongqing. Mine-mouth fat clean coal prices, however, fell Rmb20/t in Linfen. Prices in other regions were stable. Newcastle 6,000Kcal/kg thermal coal prices fell 1.1% to US$121.3/t as of July 14, with Queensland hard coking coal largely flat (US$306.1/t).
12-MONTH TARGET PRICES AND RATINGS
Rating A share Jizhong Lu'an Panjiang Xishan Guoyang Datong Kailuan Pingdingshan Ticker 000937.SZ 601699.SS 600395.SS 000983.SZ 600348.SS 601001.SS 600997.SS 601666.SS Buy* Buy Buy Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Currency CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY 12M TP 31.28 37.84 39.66 25.66 26.16 21.01 18.08 13.70 Current 27.0 34.3 35.2 24.4 24.9 17.8 16.9 13.9 Price %Up/down 16% 10% 13% 5% 5% 18% 7% -1%

* Indicates the stock is our regional Conviction List. Prices are as of market close of July 18, 2011. Key risks: Dowside risks: Macro hard landing due to overtightening may lead to weaker coal demand and lowerthan-expected earnings. Upside risks: Faster-than-expected asset injections. For important disclosures, please go to http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Source: Datastream, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. LATEST REPORTS 2H11 China coal sector strategy Focus on coal demand driven by social housing constructionselective stock picking, published July 14, 2011 Jizhong Energy Resources: Parent production exceeding 1H guidance due to strong execution, published June 30, 2011 China: Metals & Mining: Coal: Support for coal prices still exists; Buy Jizhong (CL) and Panjiang, published May 18, 2011 Jizhong Energy Resources: Strong execution to fuel accelerated growth; initiate as CL-Buy, published May 18, 2011 Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal: Rising production to lift earnings growth above peers; initiate Buy, published May 18, 2011

Domestic/overseas freight continued to fall; steel rally continues


Qinhuangdao coal inventories declined 6% to 6.95mt last week (the week ending July 18), and inventories at major power plants fell to 64.63mt (or 17 days) as of July 10. Freight from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou and Shanghai continued to fall, down 2%/4%, while freight from Newcastle to Huangpu port declined by around 9%. Downstream prices are stablilizing, and steel continued to rebound. Steel inventories continued to fall (0%-2.5%), while prices continued to rally (rebar +Rmb36/ton). Cement prices were largely flat. Methanol prices rose another 1.4% (Rmb2,865/ton), while urea declined by Rmb16/ton to Rmb2,334/ton.

A-share view: Prefer coking coal as steel prices continue rebound


We expect domestic thermal coal prices to be range-bound at a high level near-term given normalized inventories and peak-season demand. We continue to see coking coal prices supported by rallying steel prices (which in turn supports our view of social housing-driven demand in 2H) and a likely rollout of protective mining policies, and thus see more support for coking coal prices vs. thermal coal. Buy ideas: Jizhong Energy (on CL; coal consolidation accelerating in Hebei; further expansion through participation in M&A in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi); Luan Energy (PCI exposure to further rise; progress in asset injection) and Panjiang Coal (clear visibility on organic growth). We fine-tune our estimates for Luan Energy to reflect an equity split.
Yong Han, CFA +86(21)2401-8948 yong.han@ghsl.cn Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC see the end of the text. For other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Global Investment Research

July 19, 2011

China: Metals & Mining: Coal

Goldman Sachs Global Economics Research


Global Economics Weekly: 11/26 - The Outlook for H2: Three Post-Crisis Issues Dominate
https://portal.gs.com/gir/portal?st=1&action=action.binary&d=11348140&r=34 When we first described the outlook for the global economy coming into this year, we talked about 2011 as the Year of Recovery. We already described in May how our forecasts had changed with respect to two key shocks that we had not predicted at the start of the year: a more binding oil constraint after the Libyan supply disruptions and the Japanese earthquake. Since then, three other risks have intensified: headwinds to underlying US demand; the Euro-zone sovereign crisis; and Chinese and emerging market (EM) inflation and tightening. How each is resolved is likely to determine much of what happens to the global economy and markets in the second half of the year. What binds them togetheras we wrote when we outlined the major risks for 2011is that each is in a different way an aftershock of the global financial crisis. So, the problems and idiosyncrasies of a post-bust recovery are still firmly with us. -July 13, 2011

Asia Economics Data FlashChina 2Q2011 GDP and June activity data: Industrial activity growth rebounded strongly in June, 2Q growth overall moderated to belowtrend level
https://portal.gs.com/gs/portal/home/fdh/?st=1&d=11345658 2Q2011 GDP growth moderated to 9.5% yoy. June IP data suggested a strong rebound in sequential mom industrial activity growth to above trend level (19% vs. 15%-16%). While Quarter-on-quarter IP growth was around 8.5% qoq s.a. ann. in 2Q2011, down from 18.1% in 1Q2011. Continued easing of supply-side bottlenecks in certain key industries (domestic power shortages and supply chain disruptions from the earthquake in Japan) likely contributed to the rebound. Our view is that there has been a deceleration of sequential growth rates in 2Q2010 and 2Q2011 compared with the preceding quarters and the sequential growth rates of these two quarters are similar at 7%-8%. This sequential activity slow down in 2Q2011 was the result of 1) supply-side bottlenecks; 2) policy tightening which slowed demand side growth; and 3) a slowdown in external demand growth. Stronger-than-expected activity growth data tend to alleviate policy makers rising concerns on slowing activity growth. However, this does not mean there will be no incremental policy normalization (in terms of making policy stance less restrictive) in the coming months. July 13, 2011

US Economics AnalystMore Downgrades to Our Growth Forecasts


https://portal.ghsl.cn/gh/portal/?st=1&action=action.binary&d=11363681&fn Following another week of weak economic data, we have cut our estimates for real GDP growth in the second and third quarter of 2011 to 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively, from 2% and 3.25%. The main reason for the downgrade is that the high-frequency information on overall economic activity has continued to fall substantially short of our expectations. In particular, our bean count for secondquarter GDP has deteriorated further and our monthly Current Activity Indicator (CAI) is showing growth of just 1.3% in June. Our forecast remains no fresh monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, but the probability has risen. In particular, Fed officials would undoubtedly ease if the economy returned to recessionnot our forecast, but clearly a possibility given the recent numbers.July 15, 2011

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

July 19, 2011

China: Metals & Mining: Coal

Domestic and global coal market news


Development of coalbed methane and coal chemicals was listed among emerging strategic industries in Shanxis provincial industry plan for 2011-15. The industry plan of Shanxi has added the coalbed methane industry and modern coal chemical industry to the list of seven emerging strategic industries defined by the central government (which includes new energy, new materials, energy conservation and environmental protection among others). As also disclosed by the Shanxi Development and Reform Commission previously, the modern coal chemical industry is targeted to serve as the future pillar industry of Shanxi. (Source: http://www.chinacoal.org.cn/coalhydt/668/23482.aspx) Coal asset consolidation accelerates in Hebei. The provincial government of Hebei said in a July 13 announcement that it aims to build large industry leaders through M&A. In particular, the target for the coal sector is to reduce the number of coal mining companies to less than 50 from 340, and the number of small coal mines to less than 200 from 485. (Source: http://www.sxcoal.com/news/1961124/articlenew.html) Peabody plans investment on a coal-mine project in Xinjiang in cooperation with the local government. The Wall Street Journal reported on July 15 that Peabody Energy Corp. plans to develop a 50mtpa open-pit mine in Xinjiang to feed Chinas energy needs, citing a joint statement of the U.S. firm with its local partner, the government of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous region. Peabody will help establish and promote a multifunction coal industry park, participate in the creation of a large coal trading platform locally, and build training centers among others, according to the agreement. (Source: http://www.in-en.com/article/html/energy_18261826121076441.html)

Domestic coal company developments


Guoyang New Energy adjusts 3Q11 purchasing price of raw coal from parent co. Guoyang said in a July 12 filing that it has agreed with its controlling shareholder Yangquan Coal Industry (Group) to set 3Q11 purchasing price of raw coal at Rmb490/ton, down 2%, or Rmb10/ton, from Rmb500/ton in 2Q11. (Source: Company release.) Pingdinshan Tianan Coal Mining released earnings preview for 1H11, EPS down 10.4% yoy. Pingdingshan announced a 1H11 earnings preview on July 15. Its raw coal production reached 19.14mt, down 7.25% yoy, with operating revenue of Rmb11.97bn, up 0.8% yoy. Net profit attributable to shareholders came in at Rmb1.14bn, down 10.4% yoy, with EPS of Rmb0.48, down 10.4% yoy. (Source: Company release.)

Henan Shenhuo Coal and Power Co. (Not Covered) plans to fund the acquisition of coal assets from 28 small mines via private placement. Shenhuo said on July 12 that it
plans to issue up to 160 million shares at no less than Rmb13.46 per share, raising up to Rmb1.94bn to fund coal asset consolidation, purchase of emergency shelter equipment, and supplement working capital. It also said it could increase its coal production capacity by 4.62mtpa upon completion of acquisition of 28 small mines with placement proceeds, which will boost its profitability. (Source: Company release.)

The author wishes to thank Jefferson Zhang for his contribution to this report.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

July 19, 2011

China: Metals & Mining: Coal

Exhibit 1: Summary of coal price performance and coal related data


Summaryofcoalpriceperformanceandcoalrelateddata
Category DomesticportscoalPrices ThermalCoalPricesinQinhuangdao DatongqualitymixFOB(5800Kcal/Kg) ShanxiqualitymixFOB(5500Kcal/Kg) ShanximixFOB(4000Kcal/Kg) CoalPricesincoalproducerplaces ThermalCoal ThermalcoalpriceinDatong ThermalcoalpriceinSouthareaofDatong ThermalcoalpriceinYanzhou MixedcoalpriceinYanzhou ThermalcoalpriceinYulin BituminouscoalpriceinYulin ThermalcoalpriceinPingding ThermalcoalpriceinYuxian CokingCoal 8#cokingcoalpriceinGujiao 2#cokingcoalpriceinGujiao 4#cokingcoalpriceinLiulin 9#cokingcoalpriceinLiulin CokingcoalpriceinPingdingshan 1/3cokingcoalpriceinPingdingshan FatcleancoalpriceinKailuan CleancoalpriceinKailuan 1/3cokingcoalpriceinKailuan CleancoalpriceinLiupanshui 1/3cokingcoalpriceinXingtai CokingcoalpriceinXingtai AnthraciteCoal AnthraciteslackcoalpriceinYangquan AnthraciteblockspriceinYangquan AnthracitesmallblockspriceinYangquan AnthraciteslackcoalpriceinJincheng AnthraciteblockspriceinJincheng AnthracitesmallblockspriceinJincheng AnthraciteslackcoalpriceinYongcheng AnthraciteblockspriceinYongcheng AnthracitecleancoalpriceinYongcheng PCICoal PCIcoalpriceinYangquan PCIcoalpriceinChangzhi Internationalcoalprices AustraliaNewcastleFOBsteamcoal Queenslandhardcokingcoalportprice CoalInventory InventoryinQinhuangdao Inventoryatpowerplants SeaFreightofCoal Domesticfreight QinhuangdaoGuangzhou QinhuangdaoShanghai QinhuangdaoNingbo Internationalfreight(NewcastleHuangpuport) Handymax52000dwt Panamax63000dwt Panamax74000dwt Unit Latest Previous week % Previous month % Beginningof theyear % Coalproducers

Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t

900 840 735

905 845 740

1% 1% 1%

905 845 740

1% 1% 1%

840 785 690

7% 7% 7%

Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t

735 685 1140 830 580 500 650 650 1300 1480 1650 1560 1610 1520 1680 1680 1515 1500 1357 1700 850 1330 1250 880 1420 1350 800 1510 1280 1150 1130

730 680 1140 830 580 500 650 650 1300 1480 1650 1560 1610 1520 1680 1680 1515 1500 1357 1700 850 1330 1250 880 1420 1350 800 1510 1280 1150 1130

1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

725 675 980 800 560 480 640 635 1300 1480 1650 1580 1520 1390 1480 1480 1350 1500 1480 1450 850 1330 1250 880 1420 1350 800 1510 1280 1150 1130

1% 1% 16% 4% 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 6% 9% 14% 14% 12% 0% 8% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

675 625 980 750 475 410 640 635 1260 1430 1525 1350 1550 1400 1480 1450 1330 1300 1350 1450 800 1180 1000 830 1200 1140 780 1350 1100 1150 1130

9% 10% 16% 11% 22% 22% 2% 2% 3% 3% 8% 16% 4% 9% 14% 16% 14% 15% 1% 17% 6% 13% 25% 6% 18% 18% 3% 12% 16% 0% 0%

Datongcoal Datongcoal Yanzhoucoal Yanzhoucoal

Yangquancoal Yangquancoal Xishancoal Xishancoal Shougangresources Shougangresources Pingdingshancoal Pingdingshancoal Kailuanenergy Kailuanenergy Kailuanenergy Panjiangcoal Jizhongenergy Jizhongenergy Yangquancoal Yangquancoal Yangquancoal Jinchengcoal Jinchengcoal Jinchengcoal Yongchengcoal Yongchengcoal Yongchengcoal Yangquancoal Lu'anenergy

USD/t USD/t

121 306

123 307

1% 0%

119 306

2% 0%

125 243

3% 26%

2011/07/14 2011/07/18

Rmb/t Rmb/t

695 6463

740 n.a

6% n.a

595 6536

17% 1%

703 5707

1% 13%

2011/07/18 2011/07/10

Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t USD/MT USD/MT USD/MT

56 47 47 21 18 16

57 49 49 22 20 18

2% 4% 4% 3% 9% 9%

62 52 52 22 21 19

10% 10% 10% 4% 14% 15%

55 47 49 18 15 13

2% 0% 4% 21% 25% 25%

2011/07/13 2011/07/13 2011/07/13 2011/07/08 2011/07/08 2011/07/08

Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

July 19, 2011

China: Metals & Mining: Coal

Exhibit 2: Qinhuangdao coal prices (tax included) fell slightly


1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Datong quality mix(5800kcal/kg) Shanxi quality mix(5500kcal/kg) Shanxi mix(5000kcal/kg)

Exhibit 3: Thermal coal prices in Datong edged up

1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200

Rmb/t

Rmb/t

Datongthermal6000kcal/kg SouthDatongthermal5500kcal/kg

03/08

08/08

01/09 06/09

11/09 04/10

09/10

02/11 07/11

07/08

01/09

07/09

01/10

07/10

01/11

07/11

Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Exhibit 4: Coking coal prices in Gujiao of Shanxi province were stable


3000 2700 2400 2100 1800 1500 1200 900 600 300 0 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11 07/11
Rmb/t

Exhibit 5: Xingtai coking coal prices were also stable

Gujiao8#cokingcoal

Gujiao2#cokingcoal

2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400

Rmb/t

Xingtai1/3cokingcoal Xingtaicokingcoal

07/07 01/08 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11 07/11


Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Exhibit 6: PCI prices in Changzhi city remained stable (Luan)


2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11 07/11 ChangzhiPCI60006300kcal/kg LuchengPCIinChangzhi

Exhibit 7: Anthracite coal prices in Yangquan city remained stable (Guoyang New Energy)
1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 07/07 01/08 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11 07/11
Rmb/t

Rmb/t

Yangquananthraciteslackcoal Yangquananthraciteblocks Yangquananthracitesmall blocks

Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

July 19, 2011

China: Metals & Mining: Coal

Exhibit 8: Australia Newcastle FOB steam coal price edged down


200 160 120 80 40 AustraliaNewcastleFOBsteam coal(6000karl/kg)

Exhibit 9: Australia hard coking coal spot price remained largely flat last week
480 420 360 300 240 180 120 HCCspotpriceinQueensland HCCcontractpriceinQueensland

USD/t

USD/t

0 07/07 01/08 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11 07/11

60 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11 07/11

Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Source: McCloskey, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Exhibit 10: Freight from Newcastle to Huangpu port dropped notably last week

Exhibit 11: Domestic seaborne freight continued to drop slightly


5000 QinghuangdaoGuangzhou index QinghuangdaoShanghai Index QinghuangdaoNingboIndex

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

USD/t

Handymax52000dwt Panamax63000dwt Panamax74000dwt

4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

03/10

05/10

07/10

09/10

11/10

01/11 03/11

05/11

07/11

07/07

01/08

07/08

01/09

07/09

01/10

07/10

01/11

07/11

Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Exhibit 12: Coal inventory in Qinhuangdao continued to fall back


1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 07/03 07/04 07/05 07/06 07/07 07/08 07/09 07/10 07/11

Exhibit 13: Coal inventory at major power producers returned to normal levels
8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 5 0 20 15 10
Coalinventoryinpowerproducers
10thstons Days

10thstons

Domestictrade Foreigntrade Totalinventory

30 25

Inventory days

07/07 01/08 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11 07/11


Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

July 19, 2011

China: Metals & Mining: Coal

Exhibit 14: Daqin Railways daily coal throughput rebounded notably in May

Exhibit 15: Changes in the price difference between domestic coal and imports
1300
%

PricedifferenceS(Rhs)
Rmb/t

140 120 100 80

Coaldaily averagetransport volume(LHS)


10ths tons

yoy%(RHS)

40 30 20 10 0

DomesticthermalCIF AustraliathermalCIF

Rmb/t

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 50 100

1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 10/09 01/10 04/10 07/10

60 40 20 05/09 08/09 11/09 02/10 05/10 08/10 11/10 02/11 05/11

10 20 30

10/10

01/11

04/11

07/11

Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Exhibit 16: Chinas monthly raw coal production


1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
10ths tons

Exhibit 17: Domestic monthly apparent coal consumption


80%
40,000
10 thstons

China raw coal daily production yoy

Coalmonthly apparent consumption

60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40%

35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 03/07 09/07 03/08 09/08 03/09 09/09 03/10 09/10 03/11

03/07 09/07 03/08 09/08 03/09 09/09 03/10 09/10 03/11


Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Exhibit 18: Correlation between oil, US dollar and coal

Exhibit 19: Steel inventories at major Chinese cities dropped down a little bit
800 720 640 560 480 400 320 240 160 80 0 03/09 07/09 11/09 03/10 07/10 11/10 03/11 07/11
10ths tons

200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 07/04 07/05

WTIprice Newcastlethermalcoal USdollorIndex

140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60

Rebar

CR sheet

HR coil

07/06

07/07

07/08

07/09

07/10

07/11

Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Source: My Steel, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

July 19, 2011

China: Metals & Mining: Coal

Exhibit 20: Price and inventory of major downstream products

Pricesandinventoryofcoaldownsteamproducts
Category Pricesofdownstreamproducts Coke SecondgrademetallurgicalcokepriceinTianjinPort SecondgrademetallurgicalcokepriceinTangshan SecondgrademetallurgicalcokepriceinTaiyuan Steel HRcoilprice CRsheetprice Rebarprice Cement CementpriceinNorthChina CementpriceinEastChina CementpriceinSouthChina Chemicals Domesticureaprice Steelinventory Mediumplate CRsheet Rebar Unit Latest Previous week % Previous month % Beginningof theyear % Dataasof

Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t

2240 1930 1910 4890 5422 4964 392 457 438 2334

2320 1930 1910 4871 5410 4928 392 457 438 2350

3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1%

2320 1930 1930 4942 5499 5000 408 471 443 2350

3% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 4% 3% 1% 1%

2050 1820 1720 5327 5826 5097 423 516 438 1991

9% 6% 11% 8% 7% 3% 7% 11% 0% 17%

2011/07/18 2011/07/18 2011/07/18 2011/07/15 2011/07/15 2011/07/15 2011/07/15 2011/07/15 2011/07/15 2011/07/14

10thstons 10thstons 10thstons

150 164 532

150 166 545

0% 1% 2%

156 166 549

3% 2% 3%

137 147 441

10% 11% 21%

2011/07/15 2011/07/15 2011/07/15

Source: SXCoal, My Steel, Chemsino, Digital Steel, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Exhibit 21: Daily production of crude steel remains high in China


200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 06/07 12/07 06/08 12/08 06/09 12/09 06/10 12/10 06/11
10ths tons

Exhibit 22: Steel prices in major cities of China continued to pick up last week
8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 03/09 07/09 11/09 03/10 07/10 11/10 03/11 07/11
Rmb/t

Crude steel daily production yoy

140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Rebar

CR sheet

HR coil

Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Source: My Steel, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Exhibit 23: Chinas daily thermal generation continued to rise in June


130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 06/04 06/05 06/06 06/07 06/08 06/09 06/10 06/11
100Mkwh

Exhibit 24: Daily coal consumption continued to go up at major power plants in July
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 07/07 01/08 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11 07/11 Daily coal consumption at major power plants
10ths tons

Thermal power generation daily yoy

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

July 19, 2011

China: Metals & Mining: Coal

Exhibit 25: Chinas daily ammonia production continued to pick up


200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 06/07 12/07 06/08 12/08 06/09 12/09 06/10 12/10 06/11
Thousandtons Ammoniadailyproduction yoy

Exhibit 26: Urea prices began to fall, while methanol prices continued to edge up last week
5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 07/04 07/05 07/06 07/07 07/08 07/09 07/10 07/11

20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Rmb/t

Urea price

Methanol price

Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Source: Chemsino, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Exhibit 27: Chinas daily cement production was slightly lower


6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 06/05 06/06 06/07 06/08 06/09 06/10 06/11
Mn tons

Exhibit 28: Cement price in Eastern China remained stable last week
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 03/10 05/10 07/10 09/10 11/10 01/11 03/11 05/11 07/11
Rmb/t

Cement daily production

yoy

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

NorthChina EastChina SouthChina

Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Source: Digital Cement, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Exhibit 29: Chinas daily coke production rose slightly in May


140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
10ths tons Daily coke production of China yoy

Exhibit 30: Second-grade metallurgical coke price stayed flat last week in major areas
3500 3200 2900 2600 2300 2000 1700 1400 1100 800 01/08 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11 07/11
Rmb/t SecondgrademetallurgicalcokeinTangshan SecondgrademetallurgicalcokeinXingtai SecondgrademetallurgicalcokeinPingdingshan SecondgrademetallurgicalcokeinLiupanshui

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

05/07 11/07 05/08 11/08 05/09 11/09 05/10 11/10 05/11


Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Source: SXCoal, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

July 19, 2011

China: Metals & Mining: Coal

Exhibit 31: Valuation and price performance of major A/H-share-listed coal stocks
18-Jul-11 Ticker A Share Shenhua (A) Yanzhou (A) China Coal (A) Lu'an Energy Jizhong Energy Panjiang Xishan Coal Guoyang New Energy Datong Coal Kailuan Energy Pingdingshan Coal Lutian Coal* Pingzhuang Energy* Shanmei International* Lanhua Coal* Shenhuo* Dayou Energy* Yongtai Energy* Taiyuan Coal Gasification * Hengyuan Coal* Zhengzhou Coal* Guotou* 601088.SS 600188.SS 601898.SS 601699.SS 000937.SZ 600395.SS 000983.SZ 600348.SS 601001.SS 600997.SS 601666.SS 002128.SZ 000780.SZ 600546.SS 600123.SS 000933.SZ 600403.SS 600157.SS 000968.SZ 600971.SS 600121.SS 601918.SS 30.16 34.34 10.76 34.30 27.04 35.22 24.43 24.94 17.78 16.86 13.88 21.85 16.07 32.08 44.21 15.21 31.45 16.70 27.69 44.94 10.76 12.46 CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY 92,818 26,133 22,074 12,212 9,677 6,013 11,911 9,281 4,604 3,221 5,071 4,484 2,577 3,782 3,887 4,229 677 1,524 2,135 3,641 1,064 3,613 12.0 12.4 16.4 19.1 19.3 22.4 19.8 21.6 20.0 21.9 17.2 17.5 22.9 23.6 16.0 16.1 16.3 20.7 35.1 21.4 42.1 16.7 20.5 19.6 38.00 29.25 10.12 5.97 4.43 HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD 96,970 18,457 17,215 1,578 1,951 11.9 8.3 12.2 7.2 8.9 9.7 8.9 10.6 9.8 14.6 15.2 15.5 16.9 15.5 18.1 17.6 17.5 14.7 14.8 20.4 16.7 12.8 12.7 15.4 11.8 22.7 18.5 36.5 12.7 16.4 15.4 9.9 6.2 10.2 5.5 6.9 7.8 6.9 -2.4% -2.5% 6.6% -1.5% 1.3% 3.5% -0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% -1.6% 0.0% 2.2% 1.7% -0.5% 7.0% 9.2% 4.0% -2.9% 19.5% 1.7% 1.4% 2.2% 8.0% 6.7% 15.8% 19.9% 11.0% 13.8% 9.6% 10.1% 9.9% 11.9% 3.1% 7.2% 15.2% 16.3% 21.7% 12.8% 17.2% 11.4% 17.1% 44.0% 9.2% 9.2% 13.7% -1.9% -5.0% -3.3% 2.8% 13.4% 0.4% -9.7% -5.6% -12.5% -17.6% -12.6% -4.3% -2.0% -3.7% 9.4% -7.0% -7.8% -0.3% -10.3% 25.4% -20.1% -17.3% -4.1% 22.1% 21.0% -0.9% 15.0% 35.0% 8.2% -8.5% -13.0% -15.4% -16.2% -14.4% -14.3% 7.2% -5.7% -6.5% 4.0% 1.2% 13.0% 3.5% 3.4% -11.8% -10.1% 0.8% Price Currency Mkt cap Mn US$

P/E (X) 2011E 2012E 1W

Stock price performance 1M 3M YTD

Average-A share coal companies Median-A share coal companies H Share Shenhua (H) 1088.HK Yanzhou (H) China Coal (H) Hidili Shougang Resources 1171.HK 1898.HK 1393.HK 0639.HK

0.3% -1.8% -3.8% -8.2% -6.3% -4.0%

11.1% 1.9% -0.8% -3.4% 3.0% 2.4%

6.4% 1.7% -3.6% -23.9% -23.1% -8.5%

16.6% 23.2% -16.6% -9.1% -16.9% -0.6%

Average-H share coal companies Median-H share coal companies

* Not covered by GS/GH - EPS estimates based on Bloomberg consensus. Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, Quantum database.

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Exhibit 32: Valuation summary for global coal companies under GS/GH coverage
GS/GH Ticker China-A share Shenhua (A) Yanzhou (A) China Coal (A) Lu'an Energy Jizhong Energy Panjiang Xishan Coal Guoyang New Energy Datong Coal Kailuan Energy Pingdingshan Coal HK-H share Shenhua (H) Yanzhou (H) China Coal (H) Shougang Resources Hidili 601088.SS 600188.SS 601898.SS 601699.SS 000937.SZ 600395.SS 000983.SZ 600348.SS 601001.SS 600997.SS 601666.SS 1088.HK 1171.HK 1898.HK 0639.HK 1393.HK Rating Neutral Buy Sell Buy Buy* Buy Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Buy Buy Sell* Neutral Buy Neutral Sell Neutral Buy Buy* Neutral Neutral Neutral Buy* 18-Jul2011 Price 30.16 34.34 10.76 34.30 27.04 35.22 24.43 24.94 17.78 16.86 13.88 38.00 29.25 10.12 4.43 5.97 45.55 26.50 52.34 59.61 23.48 110.94 369 2,600 10,300 Ccy CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY HKD CNY USD USD USD USD USD USD INR IDR IDR 12M TP 27.10 39.30 8.00 37.84 31.28 39.66 25.66 26.16 21.01 18.08 13.70 38.80 36.00 7.40 5.40 8.50 57.00 30.00 59.00 76.00 29.00 140.00 405 2,150 11,900 EPS 2011E 2.52 2.77 0.66 1.80 1.40 1.57 1.23 1.16 0.89 0.77 0.81 2.52 2.77 0.66 0.50 0.66 2.16 2.35 3.14 4.40 1.18 20.24 17.21 0.02 605.6 2012E 2.85 3.50 0.74 2.26 1.74 2.08 1.57 1.38 1.01 0.97 0.94 2.85 3.50 0.74 0.64 0.82 5.05 3.13 4.48 5.90 3.57 15.06 22.45 0.02 886.2 P/E (X) 2011E 2012E 12.0 12.4 16.4 19.1 19.3 22.4 19.8 21.6 20.0 21.9 17.2 11.9 8.3 12.2 8.9 7.2 21.1 11.3 16.7 13.5 19.9 5.5 21.4 20.2 17.0 10.6 9.8 14.6 15.2 15.5 16.9 15.5 18.1 17.6 17.5 14.7 9.9 6.2 10.2 6.9 5.5 9.0 8.5 11.7 10.1 6.6 7.4 16.4 15.3 11.6 P/B (X) 2011E 2.6 3.6 1.8 5.7 4.6 5.5 4.8 5.4 2.8 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.6 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.3 3.3 2.7 2.1 2.6 6.9 4.0 8.5 2012E 2.2 2.9 1.6 4.9 3.9 4.7 3.9 4.3 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.9 5.2 3.4 5.8 EV/EBITDA (X) 2011E 6.1 9.1 8.7 10.4 10.2 15.7 9.0 9.3 6.1 9.9 6.7 6.0 6.3 6.4 4.1 5.8 5.2 7.1 8.3 7.0 5.8 4.1 11.8 8.9 10.9 2012E 5.2 7.0 7.6 8.6 8.2 12.4 7.0 7.6 4.8 8.4 5.7 4.9 4.5 5.5 2.9 4.2 3.7 5.0 6.5 5.3 3.0 4.5 8.6 6.8 7.2 2011E 23% 32% 11% 32% 25% 26% 27% 28% 15% 15% 19% 23% 32% 11% 14% 18% 16% 15% 22% 23% 15% 76% 37% 21% 57% ROE 2012E 23% 33% 12% 35% 27% 30% 28% 26% 15% 17% 19% 23% 33% 12% 16% 19% 17% 16% 25% 25% 28% 30% 36% 24% 59%

US Alpha Natural Resources ANR Arch Coal Consol Energy Peabody Energy Patriot Coal Walter Energy India Coal India Ltd. Indonesia PT Adaro Energy Harum Energy ACI CNX BTU PCX WLT COAL.BO ADRO.JK HRUM.JK

* Indicates the stock is on our regional Conviction List. Target prices of US coal stocks are on a 6-month basis. For important disclosures, please go to http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, Quantum database.

Exhibit 33: GS estimates on US and China macro indicators and global commodity prices
Comoditiespriceforecast($/Mt) Hardcokingcoal(FOBQLD) LowVolPCI(FOBQLD) Semisoftcokingcoal(FOBNSW) Thermalcoal(FOBNSW) IronOreFines(CFRChina) Oilpricesforecast($/bbl) WTICrudeOil BrentCrudeOil Economicforecast RealGDPUS UnemploymentRate RealGDPChina CPIChina
Source: GS Global ECS Research estimates.

2009

2010 191 146 141 99 147

2011E 284 223 214 124 173 4Q10 85.24 87.45 4Q10 2.8 9.6 9.8 4.7

2012E 260 195 185 130 160 1Q11 94.6 105.52 1Q11 2.3 8.9 9.7 5.0

2013E 230 173 164 125 120 3m 108 115 2Q11 2.3 9.1 9.5 5.7

2014E 230 173 164 120 95 6m 114.5 120 3Q11 2.3 9.2 9.4 5.0

2015E 220 165 157 110 90 12m 126.5 130 4Q11 2.3 9.2 8.9 3.6

2Q10 78.05 79.41 2Q10 3 9.6 10.3 2.9

3Q10 76.21 76.96 3Q10 3.2 9.6 9.6 3.5

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China: Metals & Mining: Coal

Reg AC
I, Yong Han, CFA, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

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The Goldman Sachs Investment Profile provides investment context for a security by comparing key attributes of that security to its peer group and market. The four key attributes depicted are: growth, returns, multiple and volatility. Growth, returns and multiple are indexed based on composites of several methodologies to determine the stocks percentile ranking within the region's coverage universe. The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as follows:
Growth is a composite of next year's estimate over current year's estimate, e.g. EPS, EBITDA, Revenue. Return is a year one prospective aggregate of various return on capital measures, e.g. CROCI, ROACE, and ROE. Multiple is a composite of one-year forward valuation ratios, e.g. P/E, dividend yield, EV/FCF, EV/EBITDA, EV/DACF, Price/Book. Volatility is measured as trailing twelve-month volatility adjusted for dividends.

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Disclosure Appendix
Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s)
Yong Han, CFA: Asia Energy. Asia Energy: Datong Coal Industry, Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal, Jizhong Energy Resources, Kailuan Energy Chemical, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining, Shanxi Guoyang New Energy, Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development, Shanxi Xishan Coal and Electricity Power.

Company-specific regulatory disclosures


The following disclosures relate to relationships between The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (with its affiliates, "Goldman Sachs") and companies covered by the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs and referred to in this research. There are no company-specific disclosures for: Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development (Rmb34.30)

Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships


Goldman Sachs Investment Research global coverage universe
Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships

Buy

Hold

Sell

Buy

Hold

Sell

Global 32% 54% 14% 52% 41% 37% As of July 1, 2011, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 3,167 equity securities. Goldman Sachs assigns stocks as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the above disclosure required by NASD/NYSE rules. See 'Ratings, Coverage groups and views and related definitions' below.

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Price target and rating history chart(s)


Shanxi Lu'an Environm ental Energy Developm ent (601699.SS) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Stock Price Mar 17 B A S O N D J F MA M J J A S O N D J F MA M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 2008 2009 2010 2011 39.29 37.84 Stock Price Currency : Chinese Renminbi 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Index Price Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target history

Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research for ratings and price targets; FactSet closing prices as of 6/30/2011. Rating Covered by Yong Han, CFA, Price target Price target at removal Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 as of Mar 17, 2011 Not covered by current analyst

The price targets show n should be considered in the context of all prior published Goldman Sachs research, w hich may or may not have included price targets, as w ell as developments relating to the company, its industry and f inancial markets.

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China: Metals & Mining: Coal

group may vary as determined by the regional Investment Review Committee. Regional Conviction Buy and Sell lists represent investment recommendations focused on either the size of the potential return or the likelihood of the realization of the return.
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