Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
* Indicates the stock is our regional Conviction List. Prices are as of market close of July 18, 2011. Key risks: Dowside risks: Macro hard landing due to overtightening may lead to weaker coal demand and lowerthan-expected earnings. Upside risks: Faster-than-expected asset injections. For important disclosures, please go to http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Source: Datastream, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. LATEST REPORTS 2H11 China coal sector strategy Focus on coal demand driven by social housing constructionselective stock picking, published July 14, 2011 Jizhong Energy Resources: Parent production exceeding 1H guidance due to strong execution, published June 30, 2011 China: Metals & Mining: Coal: Support for coal prices still exists; Buy Jizhong (CL) and Panjiang, published May 18, 2011 Jizhong Energy Resources: Strong execution to fuel accelerated growth; initiate as CL-Buy, published May 18, 2011 Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal: Rising production to lift earnings growth above peers; initiate Buy, published May 18, 2011
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC see the end of the text. For other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Asia Economics Data FlashChina 2Q2011 GDP and June activity data: Industrial activity growth rebounded strongly in June, 2Q growth overall moderated to belowtrend level
https://portal.gs.com/gs/portal/home/fdh/?st=1&d=11345658 2Q2011 GDP growth moderated to 9.5% yoy. June IP data suggested a strong rebound in sequential mom industrial activity growth to above trend level (19% vs. 15%-16%). While Quarter-on-quarter IP growth was around 8.5% qoq s.a. ann. in 2Q2011, down from 18.1% in 1Q2011. Continued easing of supply-side bottlenecks in certain key industries (domestic power shortages and supply chain disruptions from the earthquake in Japan) likely contributed to the rebound. Our view is that there has been a deceleration of sequential growth rates in 2Q2010 and 2Q2011 compared with the preceding quarters and the sequential growth rates of these two quarters are similar at 7%-8%. This sequential activity slow down in 2Q2011 was the result of 1) supply-side bottlenecks; 2) policy tightening which slowed demand side growth; and 3) a slowdown in external demand growth. Stronger-than-expected activity growth data tend to alleviate policy makers rising concerns on slowing activity growth. However, this does not mean there will be no incremental policy normalization (in terms of making policy stance less restrictive) in the coming months. July 13, 2011
Henan Shenhuo Coal and Power Co. (Not Covered) plans to fund the acquisition of coal assets from 28 small mines via private placement. Shenhuo said on July 12 that it
plans to issue up to 160 million shares at no less than Rmb13.46 per share, raising up to Rmb1.94bn to fund coal asset consolidation, purchase of emergency shelter equipment, and supplement working capital. It also said it could increase its coal production capacity by 4.62mtpa upon completion of acquisition of 28 small mines with placement proceeds, which will boost its profitability. (Source: Company release.)
The author wishes to thank Jefferson Zhang for his contribution to this report.
1% 1% 1%
1% 1% 1%
7% 7% 7%
Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t
735 685 1140 830 580 500 650 650 1300 1480 1650 1560 1610 1520 1680 1680 1515 1500 1357 1700 850 1330 1250 880 1420 1350 800 1510 1280 1150 1130
730 680 1140 830 580 500 650 650 1300 1480 1650 1560 1610 1520 1680 1680 1515 1500 1357 1700 850 1330 1250 880 1420 1350 800 1510 1280 1150 1130
1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
725 675 980 800 560 480 640 635 1300 1480 1650 1580 1520 1390 1480 1480 1350 1500 1480 1450 850 1330 1250 880 1420 1350 800 1510 1280 1150 1130
675 625 980 750 475 410 640 635 1260 1430 1525 1350 1550 1400 1480 1450 1330 1300 1350 1450 800 1180 1000 830 1200 1140 780 1350 1100 1150 1130
9% 10% 16% 11% 22% 22% 2% 2% 3% 3% 8% 16% 4% 9% 14% 16% 14% 15% 1% 17% 6% 13% 25% 6% 18% 18% 3% 12% 16% 0% 0%
Yangquancoal Yangquancoal Xishancoal Xishancoal Shougangresources Shougangresources Pingdingshancoal Pingdingshancoal Kailuanenergy Kailuanenergy Kailuanenergy Panjiangcoal Jizhongenergy Jizhongenergy Yangquancoal Yangquancoal Yangquancoal Jinchengcoal Jinchengcoal Jinchengcoal Yongchengcoal Yongchengcoal Yongchengcoal Yangquancoal Lu'anenergy
USD/t USD/t
121 306
123 307
1% 0%
119 306
2% 0%
125 243
3% 26%
2011/07/14 2011/07/18
Rmb/t Rmb/t
695 6463
740 n.a
6% n.a
595 6536
17% 1%
703 5707
1% 13%
2011/07/18 2011/07/10
56 47 47 21 18 16
57 49 49 22 20 18
2% 4% 4% 3% 9% 9%
62 52 52 22 21 19
55 47 49 18 15 13
Rmb/t
Rmb/t
Datongthermal6000kcal/kg SouthDatongthermal5500kcal/kg
03/08
08/08
01/09 06/09
11/09 04/10
09/10
02/11 07/11
07/08
01/09
07/09
01/10
07/10
01/11
07/11
Gujiao8#cokingcoal
Gujiao2#cokingcoal
2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400
Rmb/t
Xingtai1/3cokingcoal Xingtaicokingcoal
Exhibit 7: Anthracite coal prices in Yangquan city remained stable (Guoyang New Energy)
1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 07/07 01/08 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11 07/11
Rmb/t
Rmb/t
Exhibit 9: Australia hard coking coal spot price remained largely flat last week
480 420 360 300 240 180 120 HCCspotpriceinQueensland HCCcontractpriceinQueensland
USD/t
USD/t
Exhibit 10: Freight from Newcastle to Huangpu port dropped notably last week
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
USD/t
03/10
05/10
07/10
09/10
11/10
01/11 03/11
05/11
07/11
07/07
01/08
07/08
01/09
07/09
01/10
07/10
01/11
07/11
Exhibit 13: Coal inventory at major power producers returned to normal levels
8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 5 0 20 15 10
Coalinventoryinpowerproducers
10thstons Days
10thstons
30 25
Inventory days
Exhibit 14: Daqin Railways daily coal throughput rebounded notably in May
Exhibit 15: Changes in the price difference between domestic coal and imports
1300
%
PricedifferenceS(Rhs)
Rmb/t
yoy%(RHS)
40 30 20 10 0
DomesticthermalCIF AustraliathermalCIF
Rmb/t
1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 10/09 01/10 04/10 07/10
10 20 30
10/10
01/11
04/11
07/11
35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 03/07 09/07 03/08 09/08 03/09 09/09 03/10 09/10 03/11
Exhibit 19: Steel inventories at major Chinese cities dropped down a little bit
800 720 640 560 480 400 320 240 160 80 0 03/09 07/09 11/09 03/10 07/10 11/10 03/11 07/11
10ths tons
Rebar
CR sheet
HR coil
07/06
07/07
07/08
07/09
07/10
07/11
Pricesandinventoryofcoaldownsteamproducts
Category Pricesofdownstreamproducts Coke SecondgrademetallurgicalcokepriceinTianjinPort SecondgrademetallurgicalcokepriceinTangshan SecondgrademetallurgicalcokepriceinTaiyuan Steel HRcoilprice CRsheetprice Rebarprice Cement CementpriceinNorthChina CementpriceinEastChina CementpriceinSouthChina Chemicals Domesticureaprice Steelinventory Mediumplate CRsheet Rebar Unit Latest Previous week % Previous month % Beginningof theyear % Dataasof
Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t Rmb/t
2240 1930 1910 4890 5422 4964 392 457 438 2334
2320 1930 1910 4871 5410 4928 392 457 438 2350
3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1%
2320 1930 1930 4942 5499 5000 408 471 443 2350
3% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 4% 3% 1% 1%
2050 1820 1720 5327 5826 5097 423 516 438 1991
2011/07/18 2011/07/18 2011/07/18 2011/07/15 2011/07/15 2011/07/15 2011/07/15 2011/07/15 2011/07/15 2011/07/14
0% 1% 2%
3% 2% 3%
Source: SXCoal, My Steel, Chemsino, Digital Steel, Gao Hua Securities Research.
Exhibit 22: Steel prices in major cities of China continued to pick up last week
8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 03/09 07/09 11/09 03/10 07/10 11/10 03/11 07/11
Rmb/t
140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
Rebar
CR sheet
HR coil
Exhibit 24: Daily coal consumption continued to go up at major power plants in July
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 07/07 01/08 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11 07/11 Daily coal consumption at major power plants
10ths tons
Exhibit 26: Urea prices began to fall, while methanol prices continued to edge up last week
5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 07/04 07/05 07/06 07/07 07/08 07/09 07/10 07/11
Rmb/t
Urea price
Methanol price
Exhibit 28: Cement price in Eastern China remained stable last week
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 03/10 05/10 07/10 09/10 11/10 01/11 03/11 05/11 07/11
Rmb/t
yoy
Exhibit 30: Second-grade metallurgical coke price stayed flat last week in major areas
3500 3200 2900 2600 2300 2000 1700 1400 1100 800 01/08 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11 07/11
Rmb/t SecondgrademetallurgicalcokeinTangshan SecondgrademetallurgicalcokeinXingtai SecondgrademetallurgicalcokeinPingdingshan SecondgrademetallurgicalcokeinLiupanshui
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Exhibit 31: Valuation and price performance of major A/H-share-listed coal stocks
18-Jul-11 Ticker A Share Shenhua (A) Yanzhou (A) China Coal (A) Lu'an Energy Jizhong Energy Panjiang Xishan Coal Guoyang New Energy Datong Coal Kailuan Energy Pingdingshan Coal Lutian Coal* Pingzhuang Energy* Shanmei International* Lanhua Coal* Shenhuo* Dayou Energy* Yongtai Energy* Taiyuan Coal Gasification * Hengyuan Coal* Zhengzhou Coal* Guotou* 601088.SS 600188.SS 601898.SS 601699.SS 000937.SZ 600395.SS 000983.SZ 600348.SS 601001.SS 600997.SS 601666.SS 002128.SZ 000780.SZ 600546.SS 600123.SS 000933.SZ 600403.SS 600157.SS 000968.SZ 600971.SS 600121.SS 601918.SS 30.16 34.34 10.76 34.30 27.04 35.22 24.43 24.94 17.78 16.86 13.88 21.85 16.07 32.08 44.21 15.21 31.45 16.70 27.69 44.94 10.76 12.46 CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY 92,818 26,133 22,074 12,212 9,677 6,013 11,911 9,281 4,604 3,221 5,071 4,484 2,577 3,782 3,887 4,229 677 1,524 2,135 3,641 1,064 3,613 12.0 12.4 16.4 19.1 19.3 22.4 19.8 21.6 20.0 21.9 17.2 17.5 22.9 23.6 16.0 16.1 16.3 20.7 35.1 21.4 42.1 16.7 20.5 19.6 38.00 29.25 10.12 5.97 4.43 HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD 96,970 18,457 17,215 1,578 1,951 11.9 8.3 12.2 7.2 8.9 9.7 8.9 10.6 9.8 14.6 15.2 15.5 16.9 15.5 18.1 17.6 17.5 14.7 14.8 20.4 16.7 12.8 12.7 15.4 11.8 22.7 18.5 36.5 12.7 16.4 15.4 9.9 6.2 10.2 5.5 6.9 7.8 6.9 -2.4% -2.5% 6.6% -1.5% 1.3% 3.5% -0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% -1.6% 0.0% 2.2% 1.7% -0.5% 7.0% 9.2% 4.0% -2.9% 19.5% 1.7% 1.4% 2.2% 8.0% 6.7% 15.8% 19.9% 11.0% 13.8% 9.6% 10.1% 9.9% 11.9% 3.1% 7.2% 15.2% 16.3% 21.7% 12.8% 17.2% 11.4% 17.1% 44.0% 9.2% 9.2% 13.7% -1.9% -5.0% -3.3% 2.8% 13.4% 0.4% -9.7% -5.6% -12.5% -17.6% -12.6% -4.3% -2.0% -3.7% 9.4% -7.0% -7.8% -0.3% -10.3% 25.4% -20.1% -17.3% -4.1% 22.1% 21.0% -0.9% 15.0% 35.0% 8.2% -8.5% -13.0% -15.4% -16.2% -14.4% -14.3% 7.2% -5.7% -6.5% 4.0% 1.2% 13.0% 3.5% 3.4% -11.8% -10.1% 0.8% Price Currency Mkt cap Mn US$
Average-A share coal companies Median-A share coal companies H Share Shenhua (H) 1088.HK Yanzhou (H) China Coal (H) Hidili Shougang Resources 1171.HK 1898.HK 1393.HK 0639.HK
* Not covered by GS/GH - EPS estimates based on Bloomberg consensus. Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, Quantum database.
10
Exhibit 32: Valuation summary for global coal companies under GS/GH coverage
GS/GH Ticker China-A share Shenhua (A) Yanzhou (A) China Coal (A) Lu'an Energy Jizhong Energy Panjiang Xishan Coal Guoyang New Energy Datong Coal Kailuan Energy Pingdingshan Coal HK-H share Shenhua (H) Yanzhou (H) China Coal (H) Shougang Resources Hidili 601088.SS 600188.SS 601898.SS 601699.SS 000937.SZ 600395.SS 000983.SZ 600348.SS 601001.SS 600997.SS 601666.SS 1088.HK 1171.HK 1898.HK 0639.HK 1393.HK Rating Neutral Buy Sell Buy Buy* Buy Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Buy Buy Sell* Neutral Buy Neutral Sell Neutral Buy Buy* Neutral Neutral Neutral Buy* 18-Jul2011 Price 30.16 34.34 10.76 34.30 27.04 35.22 24.43 24.94 17.78 16.86 13.88 38.00 29.25 10.12 4.43 5.97 45.55 26.50 52.34 59.61 23.48 110.94 369 2,600 10,300 Ccy CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY HKD CNY USD USD USD USD USD USD INR IDR IDR 12M TP 27.10 39.30 8.00 37.84 31.28 39.66 25.66 26.16 21.01 18.08 13.70 38.80 36.00 7.40 5.40 8.50 57.00 30.00 59.00 76.00 29.00 140.00 405 2,150 11,900 EPS 2011E 2.52 2.77 0.66 1.80 1.40 1.57 1.23 1.16 0.89 0.77 0.81 2.52 2.77 0.66 0.50 0.66 2.16 2.35 3.14 4.40 1.18 20.24 17.21 0.02 605.6 2012E 2.85 3.50 0.74 2.26 1.74 2.08 1.57 1.38 1.01 0.97 0.94 2.85 3.50 0.74 0.64 0.82 5.05 3.13 4.48 5.90 3.57 15.06 22.45 0.02 886.2 P/E (X) 2011E 2012E 12.0 12.4 16.4 19.1 19.3 22.4 19.8 21.6 20.0 21.9 17.2 11.9 8.3 12.2 8.9 7.2 21.1 11.3 16.7 13.5 19.9 5.5 21.4 20.2 17.0 10.6 9.8 14.6 15.2 15.5 16.9 15.5 18.1 17.6 17.5 14.7 9.9 6.2 10.2 6.9 5.5 9.0 8.5 11.7 10.1 6.6 7.4 16.4 15.3 11.6 P/B (X) 2011E 2.6 3.6 1.8 5.7 4.6 5.5 4.8 5.4 2.8 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.6 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.3 3.3 2.7 2.1 2.6 6.9 4.0 8.5 2012E 2.2 2.9 1.6 4.9 3.9 4.7 3.9 4.3 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.9 5.2 3.4 5.8 EV/EBITDA (X) 2011E 6.1 9.1 8.7 10.4 10.2 15.7 9.0 9.3 6.1 9.9 6.7 6.0 6.3 6.4 4.1 5.8 5.2 7.1 8.3 7.0 5.8 4.1 11.8 8.9 10.9 2012E 5.2 7.0 7.6 8.6 8.2 12.4 7.0 7.6 4.8 8.4 5.7 4.9 4.5 5.5 2.9 4.2 3.7 5.0 6.5 5.3 3.0 4.5 8.6 6.8 7.2 2011E 23% 32% 11% 32% 25% 26% 27% 28% 15% 15% 19% 23% 32% 11% 14% 18% 16% 15% 22% 23% 15% 76% 37% 21% 57% ROE 2012E 23% 33% 12% 35% 27% 30% 28% 26% 15% 17% 19% 23% 33% 12% 16% 19% 17% 16% 25% 25% 28% 30% 36% 24% 59%
US Alpha Natural Resources ANR Arch Coal Consol Energy Peabody Energy Patriot Coal Walter Energy India Coal India Ltd. Indonesia PT Adaro Energy Harum Energy ACI CNX BTU PCX WLT COAL.BO ADRO.JK HRUM.JK
* Indicates the stock is on our regional Conviction List. Target prices of US coal stocks are on a 6-month basis. For important disclosures, please go to http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, Quantum database.
Exhibit 33: GS estimates on US and China macro indicators and global commodity prices
Comoditiespriceforecast($/Mt) Hardcokingcoal(FOBQLD) LowVolPCI(FOBQLD) Semisoftcokingcoal(FOBNSW) Thermalcoal(FOBNSW) IronOreFines(CFRChina) Oilpricesforecast($/bbl) WTICrudeOil BrentCrudeOil Economicforecast RealGDPUS UnemploymentRate RealGDPChina CPIChina
Source: GS Global ECS Research estimates.
2009
2011E 284 223 214 124 173 4Q10 85.24 87.45 4Q10 2.8 9.6 9.8 4.7
2012E 260 195 185 130 160 1Q11 94.6 105.52 1Q11 2.3 8.9 9.7 5.0
2013E 230 173 164 125 120 3m 108 115 2Q11 2.3 9.1 9.5 5.7
2014E 230 173 164 120 95 6m 114.5 120 3Q11 2.3 9.2 9.4 5.0
2015E 220 165 157 110 90 12m 126.5 130 4Q11 2.3 9.2 8.9 3.6
11
Reg AC
I, Yong Han, CFA, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Investment Profile
The Goldman Sachs Investment Profile provides investment context for a security by comparing key attributes of that security to its peer group and market. The four key attributes depicted are: growth, returns, multiple and volatility. Growth, returns and multiple are indexed based on composites of several methodologies to determine the stocks percentile ranking within the region's coverage universe. The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as follows:
Growth is a composite of next year's estimate over current year's estimate, e.g. EPS, EBITDA, Revenue. Return is a year one prospective aggregate of various return on capital measures, e.g. CROCI, ROACE, and ROE. Multiple is a composite of one-year forward valuation ratios, e.g. P/E, dividend yield, EV/FCF, EV/EBITDA, EV/DACF, Price/Book. Volatility is measured as trailing twelve-month volatility adjusted for dividends.
Quantum
Quantum is Goldman Sachs' proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets.
GS SUSTAIN
GS SUSTAIN is a global investment strategy aimed at long-term, long-only performance with a low turnover of ideas. The GS SUSTAIN focus list includes leaders our analysis shows to be well positioned to deliver long term outperformance through sustained competitive advantage and superior returns on capital relative to their global industry peers. Leaders are identified based on quantifiable analysis of three aspects of corporate performance: cash return on cash invested, industry positioning and management quality (the effectiveness of companies' management of the environmental, social and governance issues facing their industry).
Disclosure Appendix
Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s)
Yong Han, CFA: Asia Energy. Asia Energy: Datong Coal Industry, Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal, Jizhong Energy Resources, Kailuan Energy Chemical, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining, Shanxi Guoyang New Energy, Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development, Shanxi Xishan Coal and Electricity Power.
Buy
Hold
Sell
Buy
Hold
Sell
Global 32% 54% 14% 52% 41% 37% As of July 1, 2011, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 3,167 equity securities. Goldman Sachs assigns stocks as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the above disclosure required by NASD/NYSE rules. See 'Ratings, Coverage groups and views and related definitions' below.
12
Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research for ratings and price targets; FactSet closing prices as of 6/30/2011. Rating Covered by Yong Han, CFA, Price target Price target at removal Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 as of Mar 17, 2011 Not covered by current analyst
The price targets show n should be considered in the context of all prior published Goldman Sachs research, w hich may or may not have included price targets, as w ell as developments relating to the company, its industry and f inancial markets.
prior periods, above, or, if electronic format or if with respect to multiple companies which are the subject of this report, on the Goldman Sachs website at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
Additional disclosures required under the laws and regulations of jurisdictions other than the United States
The following disclosures are those required by the jurisdiction indicated, except to the extent already made above pursuant to United States laws and regulations. Australia: This research, and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. Brazil: Disclosure information in relation to CVM Instruction 483 is available at http://www.gs.com/worldwide/brazil/gir/index.html. Where applicable, the Brazil-registered analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, as defined in Article 16 of CVM Instruction 483, is the first author named at the beginning of this report, unless indicated otherwise at the end of the text. Canada: Goldman Sachs & Co. has approved of, and agreed to take responsibility for, this research in Canada if and to the extent it relates to equity securities of Canadian issuers. Analysts may conduct site visits but are prohibited from accepting payment or reimbursement by the company of travel expenses for such visits. Hong Kong: Further information on the securities of covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained on request from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. India: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Limited; Japan: See below. Korea: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch. Russia: Research reports distributed in the Russian Federation are not advertising as defined in the Russian legislation, but are information and analysis not having product promotion as their main purpose and do not provide appraisal within the meaning of the Russian legislation on appraisal activity. Singapore: Further information on the covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W). Taiwan: This material is for reference only and must not be reprinted without permission. Investors should carefully consider their own investment risk. Investment results are the responsibility of the individual investor. United Kingdom: Persons who would be categorized as retail clients in the United Kingdom, as such term is defined in the rules of the Financial Services Authority, should read this research in conjunction with prior Goldman Sachs research on the covered companies referred to herein and should refer to the risk warnings that have been sent to them by Goldman Sachs International. A copy of these risks warnings, and a glossary of certain financial terms used in this report, are available from Goldman Sachs International on request.
European Union: Disclosure information in relation to Article 4 (1) (d) and Article 6 (2) of the European Commission Directive 2003/126/EC is available at http://www.gs.com/client_services/global_investment_research/europeanpolicy.html which states the European Policy for Managing Conflicts of Interest in Connection with Investment Research. Japan: Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. is a Financial Instrument Dealer under the Financial Instrument and Exchange Law, registered with the Kanto
Financial Bureau (Registration No. 69), and is a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association (JSDA) and Financial Futures Association of Japan (FFAJ). Sales and purchase of equities are subject to commission pre-determined with clients plus consumption tax. See company-specific disclosures as to any applicable disclosures required by Japanese stock exchanges, the Japanese Securities Dealers Association or the Japanese Securities Finance Company.
13
group may vary as determined by the regional Investment Review Committee. Regional Conviction Buy and Sell lists represent investment recommendations focused on either the size of the potential return or the likelihood of the realization of the return.
Return potential represents the price differential between the current share price and the price target expected during the time horizon associated with the price target. Price targets are required for all covered stocks. The return potential, price target and associated time horizon are stated in each report adding or reiterating an Investment List membership. Coverage groups and views: A list of all stocks in each coverage group is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. The analyst assigns one of the following coverage views which represents the analyst's investment outlook on the coverage group relative to the group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Attractive (A). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is favorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Neutral (N). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is neutral relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Cautious (C). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is unfavorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Not Rated (NR). The investment rating and target price have been removed pursuant to Goldman Sachs policy when Goldman Sachs is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances. Rating Suspended (RS). Goldman
Sachs Research has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon. Coverage Suspended (CS). Goldman Sachs has suspended coverage of this company. Not Covered (NC). Goldman Sachs does not cover this company. Not Available or Not Applicable (NA). The information is not available for display or is not applicable. Not Meaningful (NM). The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.
General disclosures
This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Other than certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgment. Goldman Sachs conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, and brokerage business. We have investment banking and other business relationships with a substantial percentage of the companies covered by our Global Investment Research Division. Goldman Sachs & Co., the United States broker dealer, is a member of SIPC (http://www.sipc.org). Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and our proprietary trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, our proprietary trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research. This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should review current options disclosure documents which are available from Goldman Sachs sales representatives or at http://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp. Transactions cost may be significant in option strategies calling for multiple purchase and sales of options such as spreads. Supporting documentation will be supplied upon request. All research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our internal client websites. Not all research content is redistributed to our clients or available to third-party aggregators, nor is Goldman Sachs responsible for the redistribution of our research by third party aggregators. For all research available on a particular stock, please contact your sales representative or go to http://360.gs.com. Disclosure information is also available at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html or from Research Compliance, 200 West Street, New York, NY 10282. Copyright 2011 Goldman Sachs. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
14