Climate Change and Ordinary Folk

1 - The Consequences of Migration from Localised Climate Change Introduction:

The international agencies are still in the process of attempting to reach a satisfactory definition for those that will have to move from a home area because of local climate changes. There are migrants, refugees and displaced persons and of migrants and refugees there are those from conflict, economic and environmental misfortunes and variables of these; although the vast majority at this time are economic migrants and local climate changes will inevitably add to this growing number. When academics and politicians start to talk about climate change, most folk listen only with half an ear or do not listen at all. Other than the few zealots that take these matters extremely seriously either in a supportive role or a dismissive one and yet, people should listen as it is a fact that some of the changes in climate will affect them or their children or grandchildren, in one way or another. The ways in which the northern hemisphere will be affected will be in more expensive basic foods, a larger than acceptable number of migrants wanting to settle in the north, which brings with it greater competition for resources, employment and government services and all of these at a time when potable water resources are decreasing. The ways in which some of the southern hemisphere will be affected could be dramatic, with whole areas turned into desert; meaning that large tracts of land will be lost to agriculture and many people will be displaced by these events and will undertake one of two actions; either migrate internally to the expending urban areas in their own country, or migrate externally to other countries and the consequences of both are worrying. Greater urbanisation means that there will be strong competition for all basic resources and services and this can and probably will lead to civil conflict, as will migrating across national borders and there is no doubt that should these migrations occur, international civil peace will be affected to a lesser or greater degree according to where migrants settle.
- Migration of the impoverished is a greater long-term threat to civil society than terrorism and localised climate changes will lead to greater internal migration -

Climate Change and Ordinary Folk is a three part series that takes an subtle look into the affects that climate change is having and will continue to have on communities; mostly in the rural areas, but affecting whole nations. First of all, it is necessary to determine what a climate change migrant is and what is it that makes families and communities migrate; thus the triggers that may dramatically change peoples lives. Surprisingly, the vast majority of migrants are economic migrants, including those that may be affected by changes in local climate conditions.
- Climate change migrant is a misnomer -

This paper will not look at the causes of climate change other than in passing reference or where the consequences of climate change trigger movements of peoples or communities.

Are they in reality climate change migrants?

Whilst attempting to clarify the people who are climate change migrants as opposed to economic migrants there must first be the understanding of who the internal migrants are (those who travel within national borders) and external migrants (those who travel across national borders), as external migrants are subject to visa and other border controls, although it is accepted that many avoid the border patrols or checkpoints where there are loose borders between countries; such as countries that are multiple island states or countries on large land masses where borders are long and patrolled poorly. It is also possible that there could be conflict migrants caused by climate change as inter-tribal or inter-racial violence may occur over land rights or other conflicts that can affect communities. This paper will mostly look at the internal migrants as external migrants are subject to international law, although many of the conditions in resettlement areas will be the same.
- Climate change migrants should be referred to as displaced persons from climate change as this will be an important definition when it comes to the international legal issues -

The Consequences of Migration from Local Climate Change

People displaced from climate changes are also economic migrants, but whereas economic migrants choose of their own free will to migrate, climate change migrants may either be forced to move or those who have no alternative other than moving. Therefore the term climate change migrant may be misleading and it is probably a better definition to refer to these as climate change displaced persons and although this is probably a long and frustrating title, it better defines who these folk are. As displaced persons, those that are displaced due to the consequences of changes in local climate circumstances; they will have greater rights than economic migrants who are not displaced, but who chose to move because of personal or household economic difficulties and as neither the United Nations nor any other international legal body has yet come to a conclusion regarding those who are displaced because of climate changes they will have to come to some decisions and within the next decade, otherwise there will be great confusion for individual governments that find that they have a growing number of displaced persons. To be displaced by a change in climate may be where the seawater level has risen too far to allow staying appropriate, or where desertification has occurred, or where saltwater encroachment has made food production impossible and there will be other definitions that will explain why folks are displaced. Acceptable reasons of community displacement [a] Rising seawater level. [b] Desertification. [c] Saltwater encroachment into agricultural land. [d] A high level of natural deforestation and land erosion. [e] Spreading liquefaction. [f] Coastal erosion. [g] Increased flooding in delta areas. [h] Loss of safe drinking water.* Rapid increase in liquefaction. [i] A permanent decline in water-tables or natural springs drying up. * From the (above) table it can be seen that under these circumstances it would not be possible for whole communities to stay at their present location and thus become displaced and in need of resettlement. Where these folk are resettled could be crucial as regards civil conflict is concerned. However, if there are to be acceptable definitions of what constitutes a displaced person from climate change, there must also be unacceptable definitions; such as natural catastrophes. Possibly unacceptable reasons of community displacement [a] Earthquakes. [b] Landslides. [c] Volcanic eruptions. [d] Man made deforestation. [e] Riverbank erosion? [f] Occasional flash flooding [g] Short term droughts None of the above could be deemed as caused by climate changes, although the border between that which is acceptable and that which is not may be tenuous at times. Conversely, the rights and wrongs of suitability will have to be determined by international law makers.

What is understood about climate change?

Few of the ordinary people understand the affects of the climate changes that are going on around them and see no reason to react to all to the warnings of dire consequences in decades to come, and yet, these changes will affect everyone in every aspect of daily life and in the near future. There will be conflicts and these will be primarily caused by food shortages (and thus price increases), potable water shortages and lack of employment (income generation) opportunities. At times it seems to many that governments are keeping the true effects of climate changes a secret, at least as they are known at this time; although few are worried about reaction from tree huggers but are concerned about the ambivalence of the general public. For many years, scientists, economists, meteorologists and others have debated the short, medium and long term effects of climate change and for ease have attached the label Global, whereas,
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The Consequences of Migration from Local Climate Change

although it is accepted that there is a situation that will have an effect on the entire globe, the main effects are local and vary vastly and there are too many variables that confuse the issue and the ordinary person on the street is no longer capable of following the endless debates and has lost interest due to the many conflicting visions put forward. It may be wetter, drier, and stormier or a combination of all of these and the short to medium terms are hard to predict, even with global computer mapping systems. Add in natural disasters such as the high intensity earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, tornados and or cyclones that are not predictable, other than seasonal expectations and it shows the capriciousness and to advise people of some of the dramatic changes that will probably take place, is to cause the potential for panic. It seems that as in advertising, when people are overloaded with detailed information or multiple choices, the consequence is that the detail is ignored or scorned, as people cannot see any immediate effect.

Looking at a map of the world, it can be seen that the majority of the land mass is in the northern hemisphere and indeed, most of the land is above the equator and so, the cooler countries are in the north with the hotter countries are on or around the middle and it is these, the tropical countries that will face the majority of problems from climate changes and it should be understood that many of the countries at risk are also developing countries. The Antarctic, the large land mass at the bottom of the map is mostly a frozen wasteland and although there is no equal large land mass in the north, what there is, is the Arctic Ocean and within this is Greenland and much of this is also frozen, as are the northern areas of Canada and Russia. The cold in the north keeps the moderate temperatures in the northern countries and thus, with climate change will remain cool but not necessarily cold. The people in the northern hemisphere will experience warmer weather and be able to grow more food crops, whereas the areas in the middle, already warm or hot, will getter warmer and be able to grow less food crops and experience greater water shortages and thus, it can be understood why many economic migrants are already attempting to gain access to the northern hemisphere countries. This is an unsophisticated explanation of the areas that will be affected by climate change but it is sufficient for its purpose. Add to this scenario the fact that the most affected areas are running out of secure water sources, both for direct human consumption and for crop production. What may seem to be obvious consequences from large numbers of people migrating away from climate change affected areas to urban areas that are already overcrowded and have existing stresses over the supply of basic resources; there is a multitude of variables that will affect the situation at grass roots level. Food shortages may be caused by local events, or may be caused by price swings on the international commodity markets, or local politics may cause the wealthier members of a community to benefit above the impoverished community members. This short paper intends to look at the problems caused due to climate changes by internal migration (within national borders), as external migration (crossing national borders) will be subject to border controls and international laws and also into the basic facts that will not only trigger migration but also trigger the civil conflict in a climate change situation that will be the potential root causes and although there are many variables that will affect these intentions, it is necessary to consider all and determine those that are most likely to trigger the events that will lead to civil conflict. However, climate change is not the only factor involved, as this alone will affect economies, international trading markets, politics and in some cases, religious tolerances.
- Climate change has no understandable meaning for the majority of ordinary folk
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The Consequences of Migration from Local Climate Change

Although there are many indicators, there is no one within the climate change scenario, who can determine accurately what events will happen globally or locally or where (and when) these events will happen and few are prepared to take the gamble to make predictions. What is certain however is that certain areas of the globe will suffer extremes in changed climate, whilst others will see few, or even beneficial changes and what is also certain is the apparent apathy of a significant percentage of the global population towards climate change. Few can believe that in their lifetime their lifestyles will be changed and unless it can be shown that these changes will have any affect within a few years, those that are apparently apathetic will take no notice of the high level of promotion of responses to climate change and this is at the heart of the problems of climate change, plus the danger of overloading people with detailed information. For those that deny that any changes in climate are occurring lack the understanding that some changes, however slight, have already occurred.

Basics:
There are some facts that cannot be challenged and some of these are that in some places the climate is changing and regardless of the reasons for these changes, be they partially from human intervention or the normal biological process of the planet they cannot be defined and yet, these changes are part both. Where there are these changes, however unpredictable they are, they are some consequences of the changes that should alert all those that are involved and of these changes, many point to the possibility of conflict, directly due to the changes in local climate. However, arising conflicts may not be directly due to climate change in one particular area, as there are international or environmental factors that may add to a local situation; completely out of the hands of local communities or governments. Therefore, climate change may be the reason given for a change in circumstances, but the triggers of conflict will be caused by competition for finite resources within those changed circumstances.
Resource requirement Accommodation and land Competition for finite resources Purpose Urbanisation Between hosts and migrants Between suppliers and users Food producers and markets Health care provision Education Sanitation and waste disposal Resource scarcity Land non agricultural Potable water Basic foods Agricultural land resources Finances Trained personnel

Competition for public services

As the climate changes take effect in some areas, it will be noticed that the rural population declines and the rate of urbanisation swells rapidly and the migration will be as a result of certain core triggers that need to be identified and responded to. The effective triggers in the rural areas will bring to light the localised effects of climate change and the effects that these have on rural livelihoods and lifestyles. However, not all of the changes will be due to the climate changes and monitoring of localised situations will need to be accurate. Changing weather patterns will cause crop production problems, be these a lack of water, higher or lower temperatures or disease or insect infestations. One or even two years of poor yields may not deter the local food producers, though these should raise concern in the government departments that monitor crop yields.
- Many of the migrants that claim climate change as their reason to migrate may after all, only be economic migrants -

Falling school attendance rates will be an indicator of primary economic problems in the rural areas and these should be monitored closely, especially the number of boys failing to attend. It is also probable that girls will leave school prior to graduating to seek domestic or retail employment to help support the family income. As there are few retail or domestic jobs available in the rural areas, the youth will move to the most populated areas where there are a lot of retail employment opportunities.

The Changing Climate:

It is generally agreed that the overall temperature of the globe has risen by (approximately) 0.2o Celsius; although when studying individual areas of the globe, local temperatures have been seen to have risen by 1.0o Celsius or more and where the ordinary folk learn of the average global temperature rise, it is ignored as being sufficiently insignificant to create a feeling of change or of greater benefit in the cooler countries. However, in the individual or local areas where temperatures have risen significantly these changes are affecting day-to-day life, especially in the food production
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The Consequences of Migration from Local Climate Change

and potable water provision industries. As an example; a 1.0oCelsius rise in temperature can reduce the yield of rice by 10% and as rice is one of the main basic foods, this is of great concern. Likewise at higher temperatures, water evaporates from the soil rapidly and does not percolate down into the natural water reserves under the soil; thus reducing the water table. Unfortunately not everyone will recognise these local changes immediately, nor realise the effect that these changes are having on the local area, until a number of years have passed, when, for instance, food shortages occur or the availability of potable water is much reduced. Even the food producers may not, at first, recognise that significant changes have occurred; as many farming communities have memories of dramatic changes from years before and it is often assumed incorrectly that the changes will resort to normal at some time or other. However, other than some the scientific calculations and some known involvement of human intervention, by burning fossil fuels etc; there is nothing to say that the changing climate as it is nothing but a natural event, given that the planet has been through many cooling and warming periods throughout the history of the planet and this is what climate change sceptics cling to, to support their case. There is sufficient documentation from studies of weather data in some places to show that climates are changing; although most studies can only use data from the mid 1900s, as this is when accurate weather records started from. Although there is sufficient evidence to show that the migration as known in the past has been seasonal, modern day migration is mostly economical and those who have worked in natural resources development at grass roots level for any period of time, can show sound evidence that in some areas the latest change in climate has had serious effects on the natural resources sector and this must be addressed; either in the need to accept that a larger majority of people will move to the urban areas or to rapidly develop rural food production methods. Central and local government officials may be aware of the gradual changes and the consequences of these and yet they prefer to keep this knowledge to themselves; otherwise demands to provide extra support and thus finances for correcting a situation back to normal. It is also a fair comment that populations of the colder northern countries tend to welcome the thought of warmer weather, although completely leaving out that; with the warmer temperatures comes the possibility of increased periods of drought, stormy rainfall periods and often severe winters. There is also the other side of the global warming scenario that some places will benefit and to be able to grow crops that they were unable to do so, before temperature rises. A change in the level of the sea is inevitable as long as the main areas of ice continue to melt and although the predicted annual sea level rise is in millimetres, over a period of time, these mount up to create scenarios where lowland and delta areas will be flooded, causing the people of these areas to migrate and also that as many of these areas are used for food production an alternative means of proving the food production lost will have to be found and in the face of an increasing global population. Whether or not constructing sea defences will be economical or able to withstand the power of the sea, remains to be seen and whether or not these are to be permanent structures will be dictated by the economies and the length of time that certain sea defences are expected to restrain the seawater; giving time enough to satisfactorily relocate the communities that will be dependent of these defences.
- Climate change itself will not cause conflict; it is the changed circumstances in settlement areas that will cause competition for finite resources that will cause the conflict -

Many resources and services are already suffering stress and the internal migration is exacerbating these stresses, causing some conflict. With the annual population expansion rate remaining at its present level in many countries, the global population may exceed the ability of the resource providers to sustain the expanding population. All of these are potential causes of civil conflict, although predicting when settlement communities reach saturation points will depend upon the community mix and the ability of providers to supply the resources required to keep community lifestyles stable. There are now many more projects to determine the social status of communities and their understanding of personal or community well being. These projects need to be revisited regularly to determine changes in assumed well being and lifestyles.

The Migrants:
Having defined the many who are forced to move because of climate changes as climate change displaced persons there is a need to define those who choose, of their own free will, to migrate because of changed local climate and for this, they can be termed as economic migrants from climate
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The Consequences of Migration from Local Climate Change

change. It is important to recognise economic migrants from climate change as opposed to economic migrants; but for this paper the emphasis will be on climate change migrants and the general economic migrants will be left aside. As economies and local changes in climate fluctuate, migration becomes one of the greatest threats to stability within nations and internal migration is very difficult to control and although external migration gives some control to authorities, there are many ways and means of avoiding these controls, especially where there are loose borders on large land masses or large areas of island states.

The world map (above) gives a general idea of international migrant sources and where they are heading, in order to settle and these, at this time, are economic migrants and as yet, there is no data or mapping available for displaced people from climate changes, although the world map (below) shows the present rate of migration and both of these maps give indicators that areas most likely to suffer some of the severest climate changes are showing many immigrants. It is fair to say that many of these areas show some level of conflict.

A majority of the migrants seem to be from the rural areas; showing the probability that rural economies are not maintaining a satisfactory level of progress and also, that many of the youth no longer wish to be involved in the rural economy, given the facilities available for the youth in the urban and sub-urban areas. No matter that great effort is being put in to improve and diversify the rural
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The Consequences of Migration from Local Climate Change

economies, governments simply cannot afford the level of expenditure to support the intensity of development required in order to maintain the rural economies at the same level of the urban economies.
- Internal migration is one of the greatest risks to civil order throughout the globe -

At most risk are the coastal and rural communities and the rural communities can be in delta or upland areas. In the coastal areas there are two events happening. In the tropical areas where the temperature of the sea has increased, some coral reefs are dying because of the higher temperatures, causing sterilisation and this is often exacerbated by the phenomena of El Nino and coral reefs are the breeding grounds of many of the tropical fish species. Where sea levels are rising, the salinity of the seawater is poisoning coastal agricultural areas, especially where the sea can encroach into the delta areas via river estuarine areas. Add in the effects of overfishing and illegal fishing practices and it understandable why many fishing communities are in decline and are turning to agricultural activities to boost household incomes. However, where fishing communities turn to agriculture to boost household incomes there comes a higher risk of soil erosion of the poor or marginal soils used. Other than local climate changes, there are two weather phenomena that can add to the decline situations and these are El Nino and La Nina and although, in some ways, both of these are predictable, their effects are not; as has been seen by the floods in Australia and Southern America during 2011. Not only is salinity directly affecting crop production on the coasts, it now encroaches into inland subsoil and this builds deposits that can be released through cultivation of the soil. These environmental risks to the coastal areas discourage people from staying on the coasts and they migrate to find alternative employment in urban and sub-urban areas; thus adding to the stress on public services provision, employment opportunity and land resources. Thus, the perceived environmental risks in the coastal areas act as a primary trigger. Local climate changes have affected the level of food and nonfood production in the rural areas and the level of support filtered back from urban incomes to support the rural economies is increasing yearly; thus giving a level of external dependence that is not healthy.
- Add in religious, racial and tribal differences into a volatile resettlement area and the risk of civil conflict rises many fold -

Internal migrants and their employment opportunity requirements are a greater threat to civil order than many people can conceive, as the following table will show:
Problem area: Employment opportunity reduced for the: Skill level: Non skilled Section: Retail Domestic Construction Retail Domestic Construction

Semi skilled

Government services provision stresses:

Health services Education services Crime control Water provision Sanitation Transport infrastructure Tax collection Environmental Tribal conflict Racial conflict Religious conflict Unemployment Power shortages

Potable water Irrigation water Human sewerage Solid waste management Main highways Farm to market roads

Social stresses:

Other problems:

Household & Business Food storage Water pumping

Cost of essential fuels

A mention has been made of non-food crops and these are important to many rural communities and this is because the soil, altitude or conditions are not suitable to produce food crops and the non-food
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The Consequences of Migration from Local Climate Change

crops are essential to these communities to provide income to purchase household food and other commodities. Non-food crops are an important part of the economy, with many manufacturers reliant on sustainable supplies in order to provide both industry and householders with the day-to-day commodities that are essential and will be required when resettling migrants and displaced persons. As can be seen from the table above, there are many potential triggers to civil unrest within the combined problems created by internal migrants and these cause pressure on local and central economies. Where large numbers of migrants resettle in urban and sub-urban areas the competition for employment and government services will cause great stress and to add in the potential of tribal, racial or religious conflicts makes migrant settlement areas potentially very volatile indeed. With these situations apparent, local and central governments will have to consider the ways in which civil order can be maintained at the same time as controlling planning and resourcing services provision, crime control at the same time as attempting to limit the environmental damage that large influxes of migrants could cause.
- Migrants or the displaced people will come to be seen as a burden in host resettlement communities -

Many of the migrants will have left impoverished rural areas where farming families have been unable to create sufficient income to maintain a whole family and also where climate change has restricted the ability to produce food crops to an extent whereby whole communities slip below the marginal level and triggering the need to move. Another type of migrant will be those from industrial areas that are failing and where unemployment has risen well above national levels and unskilled and semi skilled workers will leave to seek opportunity elsewhere and as many industrial areas are nearby to residential areas conflicts will arise. Although many people will think of rural communities as mostly farming communities, the situation is more complicated than simply farming. The various altitudes and terrains considerably alter the environment in which these communities produce food and other crops and leave aside that many fishing communities are also rural. All of these communities, be they coastal, upland or delta have equally added to their own demise by overworking the existing natural resources, to a point whereby they are no longer sustainable. However, in mitigation, it must be stated that the rising cost of living has forced these community members to overwork their resources. Many rural areas are very conservative and migrants tend to carry this conservatism with them to where they settle and thus create a breeding ground for unrest within tribal, racial or religious communes. Too many people ignore one of the major moral principles that drive marginal and impoverished households and this is the dignity perceived by the main breadwinner to provide for a household and to do so from their own labour or effort. Often, when this dignity is lost, especially during periods where relief is required, a household breadwinner can lose the dignity (or lose face) within a community and it could be this loss of face that may cause the usual breadwinner to resort to activities that are considered to be outside of the social norm or trigger the wish to migrate.

The Migrant Settlements:

There will be many more migrants on the move, mostly from marginal rural areas, although where some industries struggle to get through periods of economical stress, these will also add to the number of migrants seeking settlement sites. Central government policies may determine where migrants would be encouraged to settle, although delicately politically balanced local governments may not wish to confront these issues; mainly because of the economic pressures that will be added to their budgets but also because accepting large numbers of migrants may cause political instability. However, these issues must be confronted and local governments will be made responsible for allocating areas where migrants can settle; otherwise migrants, especially the poorest, will settle in and expand the shanty type townships that are places where the civil conflict disturbances most often occur first. All local governments of whatever political persuasion will already note that many public services are stressed as they are now and impoverished migrants will add severely to these stresses and greater demands will be put upon the higher income earners. Governments have duties of care to provide the basic needs of land, water and shelter, although governments are well aware that without employment opportunity, to provide for families, the provision of the basics are simply not enough to maintain civil peace.
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The Consequences of Migration from Local Climate Change

Governments will have problems collecting revenue in the form of personal taxes within many of the migrant settlements, as much of business will be undertaken in the informal economy (what is also known as the black market) and this is one reason why value added taxes (VAT) will probably rise as a means of collecting taxes indirectly. This in turn will encourage smuggling of many of the basic essential as a means of keeping the street prices down within the migrant communities and as has been stated; the migrant folk will find ways of helping themselves to the commodities that they need.
Zoning areas to be used and/or banned for migrant settlements: Acceptable zones for migrant habitation Unacceptable zones for migrant habitation Land of no agricultural value. Prime quality agricultural land. Residential zones. Secondary quality agricultural land. City zones. Marginal quality agricultural land. Retail / residential zones. Forestry zones. Flood plains and Wetland zones. Water catchment zones. River and Estuarine zones. SSSI* zones. Sea defence and Liquefaction zones. Erosion prone coastal zones. Erosion prone upland zones. Urban 'green' zones. Urban recreational zones. Industrial zones. Bio-hazard zones.

20a - Nuclear energy production zones. 20b - Chemical zones. 20c - Human waste disposal zones. 20d - Military zones. 20e - Airport zones. *Sites of Special Scientific Interest

There are some areas where migrants must not be allowed to settle and local governments aided by central governments must undertake to create accurate environment maps and from these create specialised zones. As can be seen from the table [above], there are areas which must have restrictions put upon them, in order to preserve agricultural land, forestry, water catchment and flood areas, areas prone to erosion and urban green spaces. From the table above also it can be seen that there are obvious places where settlements must be banned and these are zones concerned with dangers to health and safety. The impoverished will attempt to take up land that is in banned areas, as this land will be owned by government or private landowners, where the land has little value and this will be of interest to the impoverished. There are many existing examples of where impoverished migrants have made settlements in urban areas where there are flood plains, river estuarine areas and land used for garbage disposal. It is clear that central governments must assist local governments to select sites where human migrants would be allowed and furthermore assist with the planning processes required. Zones can be created and those that are not suitable for migrant settlements must be strictly policed in order to ensure prime and secondary quality agricultural land is not used for settlements, or where there are likely to be hazards to health and safety. Local governments can be given some leeway in areas where land could, if necessary, be used for settlement. The increasing density of populations in urban areas, especially where the areas are already overcrowded, must be of considerable concern to local and central governments, as many of these areas attract the impoverished. Where there are impoverished there is daily competition for resources and the impoverished take up many of the original open spaces, be these flood plain areas, human waste disposal areas or areas of environmental interest. With this, it is clear that many of the low income urban areas will spread further and in the better off urban areas, construction is as likely to go upwards as well as sideways, as competition for land increases. The value of urban and sub-urban land areas will inevitably increase and governments may have to intervene in order to not only secure the land required for expansion but also to reduce the threat of price increases. With the rapidity of
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urbanisation, it is inevitable that new towns will have to be constructed and these in areas that have no agricultural value and away from prescribed zones.
- There is also the question of the provision of buffer zones to protect endangered flora and fauna species from migrant settlers -

Amongst all of the problems of climate change, consideration should be given to the wild flora and fauna and although this may be of little interest to impoverished migrants, there is a value to be put upon wild species that require protection. Buffer zones are one solution, as are Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs), as these are very important resources.

Urbanisation:
Urbanisation is or will be one of the greatest threats to governments and the consequences of local climate changes, although there are other problems for governments such as financial, environmental and service provision and a blend of these will bring a higher risk of conflict that may be beyond the ability of any government to control although conflict will not be the only consequence. This is because where migrants of different backgrounds dwell together; it is certain that there will be different culture mixes and these will clash. Food riots and conflict with migrants have already been seen and these are certain to intensify as urbanisation increases. These governments will also have to decide, within the realms of international law, how much strength they use to curtail civil unrest in local communities. As rural occupations fail to supply the basic means for families to live a reasonable lifestyle, possibly due to changes in local climate, individual members of some families have a tendency to move to the local towns in order to find employment to either support themselves or to support themselves and send surplus monies back to the family household. Often, these family members seem to create a sustainable lifestyle and this encourages other family members to follow. As rural economies decline further, whole families leave and it is at this stage where the urban and sub-urban areas start to become overcrowded and where competition begins for various basic resources; such as land, potable water, health services provision, sanitation services and employment and if these shortages become highly stressed, outbreaks of conflict can occur. Once conflict occurs, no matter at what level, groups of people start to take varying and/or opposite views and at this stage, it creates risks for the authorities.
- Too many people ignore the need of the dignity of a household breadwinner to provide for their household by their own efforts -

One of the major concerns for governments and major organisations is the probability of increasing levels of conflict and this does not mean armed conflict between nations. The conflict potential is mostly internal, although some may likely spread over national borders, especially in large land mass areas where borders are easily crossed.
- Jealousy is a primary trigger in areas where there is competition for resources -

Imagine living in a stable, say medium sized community that is well regulated and has a reasonable general lifestyle and into this community, the government decides to allow migrants to take up land space not used for agriculture or other productive activities by the present host community. The migrants will require special attention in order to be able to take up residence and this requires land clearance, housing construction and extra public services in order that the migrants may settle. Other than an original friendly welcome from the hosts, it soon becomes clear that the incomers are getting a larger share of the attention and the hosts may show some concern over this. The migrant additions will require employment, education, health and other services; thus the seeds of jealousy and competition are sown and by its very nature this is conflict, albeit in its lowest form. From this, because of a rise in the level of conflict, the central authorities may decide that a larger policing capability is required and in some terms, this can actually add to the feeling of jealousy and migrants get blamed for even minor problems. In some cultures it is not long before the jealousies and competition become physical.
- At what level will the civil authorities intervene to restore law and order and what level of strength will they use to achieve their desired level of order -

Where rural economies fail due to climate changes, this, in general, causes the amount of basic foods produced locally to decrease, with inevitable price increases and the competition for these. If the climate change has caused less rainfall, the underground water reserves decrease (water table lowers), easily accessed potable water becomes short and authorities have to take water from lower in
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The Consequences of Migration from Local Climate Change

the earth and in some cases this water can contain poisonous substances (heavy metals etc). Water shortages also mean that there is less water for crop irrigation, further reducing crop yields. As of yet the desalination and distribution of seawater has been very expensive and ways must be found to improve this system that will probably be very important for the survival of many communities that spread from the coast inwards. Another point to consider is that many small producers sell their crops in advance of harvesting and once harvested they have little remaining for their own households, prompting the need to earn income outside of the normal employment activity; adding to competition for employment within a community.

The Primary Triggers:

Local climate changes will slowly cause economic problems; primarily in the rural areas and these problems will encourage rural people to seek alternative methods of employment and as there is less alternative employment opportunity in the rural areas, a slow movement of people will be seen and these will mostly be those below twenty-five years of age. Certain conflicts that spread through the rural areas will also be a cause of some people to move, but these are generally seen as conflict migrants that governments seek to help. However, as has already been seen in areas where conflict migrants have been resettled, host communities soon become jealous of the benefits given to the conflict migrants and this causes conflict, albeit non-violent in many cases.
- Other than potable water shortages, conflict in urban areas may not be directly caused by climate change; competition for finite resources and employment will trigger urban conflict

Of all of the basic resources water is by far the most important and the availability of safe, potable water is becoming scarce and in some of the developing countries there are great shortages at this time and given an increasing global population and given also that increasing urbanisation is a fact; it is safe to state that alternative means of harvesting potable water and water for irrigation must be found. In order to determine the criteria for government intervention in the need to resettle those affected by localised climate changes, there has to be a certain level at which a government must intervene in order to ensure that life is not endangered and it is presumed that there will be an internationally agreed method of achieving this. In this document an example is used in which three categories are envisaged. The severity in the level of localised climate changes will probably be categorised by international agreement to take into consideration the effect on the local peoples ability to sustain the basic standard of life including a general forecast of the future consequences of climate changes in a given area or community. Severity: Mild: Effect: Minor disruptions to daily lifestyle, although these disruptions may become intermediate at some time in the near future. It is thought that the majority of a community will prefer to stay in the area. Intermediate: Where it is accepted that the effects of local climate change are unlikely to a return to a mild state and any further decline in this situation will probably become severe. It is thought that many within a community will elect to migrate of their own accord and thus not subject to support from government resources and be termed as economic migrants. Severe: In this condition, the effects and consequences of climate change are reaching or have gone beyond a point or whereby daily lifestyle is severely restricted and that in order to maintain life, the community will have to be resettled elsewhere and thus become displaced people and entitled to government support to resettle. The above represents a simplistic viewpoint of the criteria, although it is sufficient for these purposes.

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The Consequences of Migration from Local Climate Change

Lessons should be learned from the problems of placing conflict migrants in host communities, as this will apply equally to communities that absorb climate change migrants. There are many research results to show that urbanisation is an existing problem in many countries and local climate changes will severely add to this and it is in the urban and sub-urban areas where climate change conflict will be most serious. Of the major triggers, the following will be primary:
Potable water shortages. Potable water charges. Basic food shortages. Basic food prices. Employment opportunity for unskilled and semi-skilled. Urban overcrowding. Declining but essential public services provision.

Added to the above there are certain variables that will need to be taken into consideration. These variables have as much to do with peoples perception other than facts, except where outward signs of potential conflict are seen:
Racial differences. Tribal differences. Religious differences. Urban land availability Perceived favouritism towards migrants for inputs

As well as discerning the probable primary trigger points, it is useful to look at the prime reasons for people deciding to move away from a home community. For this purpose two likely sources are being used and these are rural and industrial. However, there are further definitions that apply to rural and these are coastal rural, delta rural and upland rural and as can be envisaged there are many variables that can be applied and in these cases the oft use phrase average cannot be applied, considering that this is in a localised climate change situation:
Climate change caused declines in production Climate change causing a decline in employment opportunity Climate change weather system alterations River siltation from upland soil erosion Increased liquefaction in coastal and swamp areas Overuse of delta area agricultural (prime) land Deforestation of land for agricultural production Overuse and possible destruction of finite natural resources Potential for land disputes

In an attempt to identify the primary conflict trigger points, it is probable that these will be in the low income urban settlements, where there is strong competition for employment, basic foods, potable
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The Consequences of Migration from Local Climate Change

water and public services and combine an increasing number of displaced persons or migrants adding to the established stress in the settlements, it becomes plain that the settlements are high risk. Religious, tribal and racial intolerances will only add to the potential of urban conflict. However, although the migrants may tip the balance, it is the reason that the migrants have moved that is at the root of the problem and to exacerbate this problem, neither national nor international governments or organisations have sufficient funds available to meet the dire need to address the needs in the rural areas, regardless of climate change and given localised changes in climate adding to the problem, it is very important to identify the likely rural areas where prime support is required. If some form of support is to be provided in the areas most likely to erupt into civil conflict, then there is a requirement to know what the actual triggers might be and to recognise that these civil conflicts will be different in the rural areas to those in the urban areas. What are likely to be the base triggers of civil conflict in rural and urban areas? Civil conflict trigger points common to both of the urban and rural areas will be the availability of potable water, affordable basic foods, employment opportunity, land shortages and inter-tribal disputes and although it is often assumed that the rural folk have sufficient water and basic foods, a high percentage of rural areas suffer prolonged droughts and declining water tables and as most rural households rely on permanent or seasonal employment, employers are going to reduce labour rates as much as possible. Potential conflict triggers Potable water availability Irrigation water availability Basic food price and availability Employment availability Employment wage rates Employment lay-offs Inter-tribal disputes Land ownership disputes Land rental disputes Land grazing rights Land crop sharing disputes Land bonded labour disputes Forrest access rights Forest grazing rights Forrest timber cutting rights Forrest hunting rights Urban # # # # # # # Rural # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # #

There are other triggers that although they may not lead directly to civil conflict they are lifestyle indicators that may add to dispute situations. As examples of these, shortages of fuels will lead to daily problems and as such, some are listed below: Electricity: Cold Storage facilities would cease to maintain delicate food stocks or medicines if [a]; electricity suffered long outages and [b] or failed totally. Likewise, much of the generation of electricity in some countries is dependent on the availability and cost of diesel fuel. Local transport facilities would be severely disrupted should there be shortages of diesel fuel and the ability to transport food and other essentials to markets would be disrupted. Shortages of petrol would affect the ability of many small farmers to be able to irrigate their crops with petrol driven pumps. Shortages of kerosene would affect many households that do not have electricity for lighting and also restrict the use of kerosene cookers and refrigerators.

Diesel:

Petrol: Kerosene:

There is also the likelihood that other than basic foods, certain food items may be in short supply, especially in the rural areas and again, although these shortages may not be directly responsible for outbreaks of civil conflict, they may certainly add to a marginal situation. Salt: Cooking oil: Sugar: Wheat flour: ?
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The Consequences of Migration from Local Climate Change

To exacerbate the problem further, there is little understanding in the rural areas about climate changes and unfortunately, the rural communities see little of the dramatic changes that would be sufficient to bring the problem to their attention. Rural communities may be used to long periods of drought or floods and will ignore the warnings of permanent changes. Too many consultants give theoretical advice and insufficient practical examples of what changes have already occurred. Very few rural communities notice the very gradual changes that are taking place and those that do recognise changes see them as too small to take real notice of and anyway, what changes will show in my lifetime. However much the ordinary folk understand about changes in climate, there is one worrying fact that needs to be addressed and that is that in general academics that produce papers on climate change seem only to be targeting these scholastic missives towards other academics, leaving the ordinary folk out of the process of understanding and this must change.

Who will profit from local climate changes?

From all of the misery caused mostly within impoverished communities due to local climate changes, there will be those who profit from some of the misery caused. Even though governments will seek to impose limits to profiteering, market forces will ensure that basic necessities are available although at a price. Potable and irrigation water, urban land resources and basic foods will be at risk in many areas and as has been seen in some countries already, riots from angry citizens have broken out, usually over the cost or availability of basic foods. It is certain to be of benefit to those that manufacture emergency relief materials, as there are large profits to made from these.
Water Land Food Services Potable for human consumption Irrigation for farmers and growers Urban and sub-urban housing and services Wholesalers Industrial farmers Government provision of water, health, education and waste disposal services

As urbanisation increases, the land prices in the urban and sub-urban areas will rise significantly, as developers and landowners seek to accommodate migrants from the rural areas. Migrants or displaced people moving to the urban areas will compete for work, food, public services, potable water and other basic needs and this again, will lead to conflict from mild to severe. It would be worthwhile for an organisation to list all of the possible changes in all various areas and then, perhaps the development agencies could be aware of likely projects to undertake. Hoarding of commodities has already been seen, especially food and the general populace views this with great distaste and this alone has caused riots in some countries and governments must seek to outlaw this practice and be seen to do so, otherwise the hoarders can control and increase the prices of basic necessities in the markets. One concern about expanding urban and sub-urban areas is that the land required to enable these expansions may encroach onto agricultural, water catchment areas or protected environmental land, further reducing the ability to provide the amount of food needed to feed a local population or to protect delicate environments. External pressures that may affect human migration: There are external pressures that will affect many situations where people migrate because of local climate change and most of these pressures are unpredictable and not directly caused by the migrants and many of the migrants will not be aware of some or any of these pressures from outside although many will be affected by the pressures. However, these changes will not be universal as the changes in the upland areas will differ from those lower down and inappropriate agricultural practices will exacerbate soil erosion and this will cause problems downstream into the coastal waters. Richer nations will dominate the markets for oils, minerals and food and as has already been seen in Africa, with the competition for land resources, either by external governments or private institutions. The money of the richer nations will prove to be persuasive and the currency values of developing countries will decline; increasing the competition between local and foreign values. Price of basic fuels on the international markets. International market volatility of basic foods and other commodities. Sudden environmental calamities that draw on the funds set aside for emergencies. Cross border conflicts.
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The Consequences of Migration from Local Climate Change

Unfortunately, international commodity brokers will take advantage of shortages to push through price increases and more purchasing governments will have to subsidise the cost of essential basics to their populations, in order to attempt to avoid civil conflicts. Once decisions are made to subsidise the essential basics, [a] there will be expectations from those benefitting that subsidies should be permanent and [b] these actions will take money out of development budgets and thus becomes a two edged sword against which governments will struggle. It is therefore apparent that company shareholders will hold much of the moral responsibilities towards civil conflict. The international commodity markets will have a key role in many of the economies as the climate changes and the availability and cost of many of the raw materials will be critical to the ability of governments to fund proactive and reactive solutions to changing climates. Basic foods, raw minerals, raw fibres are essential to manufacturing and balancing national budgets and any drastic shortages will cause unpredictable swings.
- Company shareholders may become morally responsible for outbreaks of civil conflict -

This is where Africa and to some extent Australia and South America have become a major targets of the international traders, with their vast wealth of minerals and land that could yield many times what they do at present; although the political problems that are inherent in African life have held back the ability of the continent to progress. As has been seen, one of the largest economies in the world, China, has sought to gain influence and the raw materials that are so essential to Chinas growth. Many of the developed economies fail to compete with China on equal terms, as China has little interest in the finer points or moral issues in international law or development. The western countries governments are elected on manifestoes by the people and are bound be international conventions, whilst Chinas government is not elected by the people and either ignore or circumvent many of the accepted conventions. All of this puts China well ahead in its need to [a] feed its people; [b] provide the raw materials for its industry and [c], gain greater political influence in African countries that have not yet accepted full democracies. All of these together give China a very strong position to face climate changes and also to dominate the commodity markets, not only in raw materials but also in finished goods.

Looking Towards the Future:

It is clear from much of the research already undertaken that it will be the rural communities that will bear the main impact of local climate changes, be these coastal, delta or upland communities and from the depth of severity of these changes will come the decisions to migrate or stay. As lifestyles in the rural areas decline, more will add to the general situation of urbanisation and it is here that the conflicts will arise, for whatever reasons. Thus, certain international decisions must be made in order [a] to realise the extent of the problems in local areas and [b], to be able to predict as closely as possible the events and react in time for the severity of changes to be mitigated. Too few governments have concentrated sufficient energy or resources into making the best possible use of some of their natural resources and many countries have large tracts of land that is underused. They fail to see ahead far enough to realise that if declines in rural economies are a reason why many are migrating and urbanisation is rapidly increasing then, the rural economies require boosting.
- Many of the problems and thus the solutions lie in the rural economies -

It is accepted that the international bodies (United Nations etc) do not have the ability to pull together the resources required in order to be proactive instead of reactive and this is where these organisation fail the communities. Although many countries and area organisations come under the umbrella of the United Nations, few are able to gain support for areas at risk, as the United Nations views all as a global or regional situations and fails to acknowledge that the smaller area organisations could make a timely difference. Eventually, the United Nations and its members will get around to taking some action, but the United Nations itself has very few physical human resources to be able to address the technical problems that will arise; although they do have many consultants and advisors. In order for the United Nations and other organisations to be able to respond, the United Nations should create a pool of specialists that are able to go to areas where climates changes are likely to be severe, to set up and co-ordinate projects from bio-engineering through community organisation and prior to this, should ensure that they not only train but also engage these specialists.
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The Consequences of Migration from Local Climate Change

Bio- engineering specialists Computer mapping specialists Agriculturalists Urban planning engineers Agricultural engineers Sanitary engineers Food security planners and co-ordinators Waste disposal and re-cycling engineers Foresters Human resource planners and managers Potable water specialists Inter-project activity co-ordinators Irrigation water specialists International community law specialists Marine biologists Community development co-ordinators Community environmental educators Tribal integrity specialists Alternative energy production engineers Skill trainers Alternative income developers Transport infrastructure engineers Metrological specialists Pandemic medical response teams Low cost housing engineers Farm to market distribution specialists Farm to market transport specialists river-road Food diversity specialists Domestic - wild animal buffer zone planners Migrant relocation planners and co-ordinators Rainwater harvesting specialists Seawater desalination engineers Urban zoning planners Delta protection specialists Employment opportunity specialists Sea defence specialists Wildlife protection specialists Flora protection specialists Soil erosion reduction specialists Liquefaction specialists Poverty alleviation specialists Advocacy specialists in community/government communications Conflict resolution specialists low and medium conflicts As can be seen, there are many skills required in order to ensure that the international organisations will be able to respond to the needs and primary to the ability to respond the organisations need to ensure that a global environmental mapping system is in place in order to be able to predict the most likely areas where support will be required.
- There are many arguments to be resolved before any resolution of the international law regarding external migrants or displaced people can be settled -

However, wherever there are national boundaries to consider, there will be politics also to be considered. Not every country will wish to have international advisors taking control of environmental situations and it is likely that the politics together with funding issues will be the major problems that will arise. Given that it is likely that the United Nations will take overall control of determining the priorities and for this to be successful, there needs to be linkages through from sourcing the resources to activating these resources in the field. To this end it is necessary to ensure that much of the management of these projects is in the hands of local people and if not enough are available to fulfil the roles required, then training must take priority.

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The Consequences of Migration from Local Climate Change

There are many bodies that must be involved with the process of pro-acting or reacting to localised climate changes and although there is little likelihood of everything working well, the system must be made to work, as many lives and lifestyles depend upon the success of this system. Of the priorities, the scientific bodies monitoring the changing climate state that to meet the needs of the projected population towards 2050, there needs to be an increase of 30% of potable water, a 40% in basic food production and to meet these needs, there has to be an increase of 20% in irrigation water. However, there is one problem that must be overcome if food production is to be increased to meet the needs and this is, that there is a growing percentage of soil that is saline and the scientists have estimated that a further 20% of land should be desalinated. Saline soil may be suitable for coconut production, but is damaging to most basic food crops. There is also the need to ensure that any new land opened for agricultural production must be environmentally sound. To add to these shortages, there is already strong competition for cereals and protein foods between the livestock feed industry and human food processors and this competition must be resolved. With some economies in developing countries improving, there is a greater demand for meat products and also a greater demand for exotic foods; all of which add to carbon emissions and shortages at local levels. As local climates change, there will be a realisation that availability of certain commodities will be reduced, also keeping in mind that as the years go by, the world population is expanding beyond the ability of existing commodities to satisfy the needs. Other than food crops, there are many commodities that are essential for manufacturers to use in order to maintain and expand economies. Oils, base minerals and fibres are important and as can already be seen, some governments are purchasing large tracts of land and mineral resources. No individual wishes to return to the simplest of diets in order to save the planet and the richer western nations will again dominate the markets, probably making it less likely that the meats and exotic foods will be available to those in the marginal markets.
Commodity requirements: Oils: Ores: Copper Aluminium Iron Phosphates Trace elements Fibres: Jute Copra Aloe Kapok Cereals: Wheat Corn (maize) Vegetable proteins: Soya Legumes Meat proteins: Marine fish Pork Vegetable roughage: Brassicas Soft fruits Other: Livestock grazing Bananas / plantains

Rare earths Tin Rare metals Potash

Cotton Abaca Skins

Rice Oats / Barley Sorghum

Beef Goat & Sheep Beans

Forage trees / shrubs Citrus fruits and nuts

In order to reduce some of the problems with displaced persons or migrants in a climate change situation, it is necessary to put in place some restrictions beyond which it is unwise to go. In many
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The Consequences of Migration from Local Climate Change

areas a large influx of migrants will put great stress on public services and commodities and these should be avoided if possible. Thus, from the probable restrictions in place, a number of necessary facilities should be made available.
Food: Availability Price Places of competitive purchasing Potable Irrigation Residential Crop production Seeds and fertiliser Job opportunity Job pool Food for work projects Hospitals Clinics Maternal Infant and child Disease control Petty theft Urban gangs Kerosene availability Primary education facilities Sport and recreation facilities

Water: Land:

Employment:

Health services:

Crime control: Lifestyle:

Allowing shanty towns to flourish will lead to many problems, although with many of the basics (above) available, the problems should be reduced. However, it is important for governments to realise that many urban areas will be inundated by migrants and should put in place plans to provide new urban areas that have predetermined basic resources and small areas for homestead crop production as these will [a] keep many occupied when job opportunities are low and [b] also help with home budgets by providing some meats, fruits and vegetables.
- No one wishes to return to eating the simplest of basic foods and therefore, something must be done to improve food production methods in a sustainable way and without destroying vast tracts of forest which this planet needs in order to breathe -

Conclusion:
The clear conclusion of this small paper is that few if any solutions to the problems can be accomplished and thus, the marginal and impoverished communities will be left to manage as best they can and it also becomes apparent that the gap between rich and poor nations and peoples will increase and this alone is a potential trigger for mass conflict. It is accepted that internal migration is a lot harder to control than cross-border migration and it seems that internal politics will be as much an issue as the climate change migration triggers and that any variable might be a potential spark that may lead to civil conflict. It also becomes obvious that the problem is so large and diverse that the international organisations (both regional and global) will be powerless to come to the aid of the majority of human or environmental problems and moral concerns will take a back seat and perhaps millions of impoverished will be left to their own resources. If internal political conflict (i.e. the Arab Spring and other conflicts) can create so much humanitarian concern then it stands to reason that internal migration, be it economically or climate change driven, will also cause mass humanitarian needs and it is proper to pose the question of who will have the capacity to respond proactively or reactively? The United Nations and other co-operative bodies do not have the means to be able to respond, other than a few cases and this again points to the probability that the majority of the impoverished and marginal communities will be left to their own resources. Thus, if the above is considered to be the most likely scenario, it stands to reason that the more that can be done to help the impoverished and marginal people to help themselves, the overall affect of the consequences of climate change, migration and civil conflict can be lessened. Unless some form of assistance is provided to the impoverished and marginal folk they might take active steps to take what
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The Consequences of Migration from Local Climate Change

they want and no civil authority will be able to stop mass destruction of the environment in order that these folks can provide the basic needs by their own hands, thus creating a breakdown in civil law and order in some places. There are morals attached to governments that are duty bound to provide the basic necessities of daily living and having to control civil conflict over shortages is also a duty, but where to draw a line between that which is acceptable civil order and that which is over aggressive is yet to be determined but civil society (the ordinary folk) will not tolerate over-aggressive control methods. It should also be understood that to some degree the shareholders of large trading corporations have to share the moral responsibility for some of the civil conflicts.
- Without the provision of resources to allow the marginal and impoverished peoples to help themselves the world leaders may see dramatic situations that are not morally acceptable to the majority of ordinary folk -

Taking this one step further, are governments likely to take active steps to improve and increase the ability to react to civil conflict and if so, where does this leave the international law; given that there have been no agreements regarding the legal status of cross border climate change displaced people or migrants within the United Nations or other leading international bodies. This is all in the possible scenario that there will come a point in time when the proposed solutions to the consequences of changes in climate will not be sufficient to alleviate the enormous problem of what to do for the most at risk in order to avoid those at risk taking matters into their own hands. This small paper shows the great concerns for the need to increase the provision of potable water and basic foods and although some countries have purchased or leased large areas of foreign land for food production, this is targeted for home consumption and not intended for the international commodity markets. We may well see barter contracts for basic foods in exchange for raw or processed mineral resources.
- To meet civil conflict because of water or basic food shortages with increased aggressive authority will be morally wrong and unacceptable to the ordinary folk -

However, this paper does not address where the extra potable water and basic foods are to be resourced and thus, it becomes inherently obvious that there must be determined international cooperation in order to [a] provide the extra land required, [b] to develop the food crops to satisfy the basic needs of the world, [c] to advance the skills required to produce higher yields on less land, [d] to ensure that training is provided to ensure that in order to satisfy the basic needs, the systems are to be sustainable and [e] that at the least to better ensure that the marginal and impoverished may help themselves better. For all of the much needed development required, it is necessary to ensure that communities can act as one and for this, the advocacy skills are important and it is the small independent organisations that have shown the skills to achieve this. In order to achieve the above and as predicted by scientists who have stated the amounts of both potable water and water for crop irrigation must be increased and some of this need must be realised at household level in not only harvesting rainwater, but also to ensure that wastage is reduced. Following on from the above, ordinary folk will be compelled to demand answers to the pertinent questions as to what will be the primary triggers to show before the international organisations take actions and what will these actions be? At what point does (real or perceived) localised climate change itself become a trigger for local communities? The United Nations and other organisations often describe migrants as displaced people and this term needs to be qualified regarding climate change migrants. Migrants from climate change cannot always be referred to as displaced as the term displaced indicates a person who may relocate only because daily lifestyle as it is untenable and not through choice. It also becomes apparent that climate change migrants are essentially economic migrants and in many cases will not be acceptable for aid projects and this is where there definition of climate change migrant will have to be defined closely. One of the major issues for authorities to attend to is uncertainty and attempting to explain the future effects of climate change on the planet in terms of probable or possible does not catch the attention of the ordinary folk and the enduring ambivalence becomes understandable.
- The consequences of climate change might be probabilities and possibilities only in any given area -

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The Consequences of Migration from Local Climate Change

Many folk will ask if these changes in climate are taking place, when did these changes start? Is this a new phenomenon or has this been going on for centuries or are these changes being monitored only from the mid 1900s and if so, why is it that these changes have appeared in the last sixty years? The answers to these questions go back many centuries, to when humans first started commercial agriculture and adding in a burgeoning population and industrialisation is using up the natural resources faster than they can be replenished. There is much to do to in order to gain the interest and support of the ordinary folk and will it be worth talking in laymans language about what will probably happen to the children of future generations, as no one believes that tomorrow all will change.

Core Studies June 2011

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Acknowledgments:

Abigail Mercado Independent Development Research Advisor - Philippines Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture (2007) CIA World Fact Book World Bank Justin S. Rubin American Security Project

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