INDONESIA COUNTRY REPORT

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGES, AND THEIR IMPLICATION

GOVERNMENT OF REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA JAKARTA 2007

INDONESIA COUNTRY REPORT

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGES, AND THEIR IMPLICATION

GOVERNMENT OF REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA JAKARTA 2007

Published by: Ministry of Environment Republic of Indonesia Jl. D. I. Panjaitan Kav. 24 Jakarta Timur 13410 Indonesia

Ministry of Environment, 2007

Any part of this publication may be produced and quoted with a proper quotation suggested below. Suggested Quotation: MoE. 2007. Indonesia Country Report: Climate Variability and Climate Change, and their Implication. Ministry of Environment, Republic of Indonesia, Jakarta. A catalog record of this publication is available from Perpustakaan Nasional Indonesia. ISBN: 978-979-8362-92-7

Coordinating Lead Authors: Rizaldi Boer, Sutardi and Dadang Hilman

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FOREWORD FROM NATIONAL FOCAL POINT TO THE UNFCCC The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that global warming over the past 50 years was mainly caused by human activities that have increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Over recent years, it is quite clear that the El Nio events have become more frequent as the global temperature anomalies associated with each El Nio continue to increase. This means that the extreme regional weather and climate anomalies associated with El Nio are being exacerbated by increasingly higher temperatures. Extreme weather and climate events cause serious floods, drought and wild fires in Indonesia. Many reports showed that these events have caused serious impact on Indonesian economy and human living. Wild fire occurred in El-Nino 1997 has caused huge economic loss and damaged peoples livelihoods increasing poverty rates by one-third or more. Drought occurred in 1972 has also impacted millions of people. Flood occurred in early February 2007 which lasted for about 22 days also affected thousands of people and destroyed about 1,500 houses. Flood hazards have become common in many part of Indonesia regions. In the period 2001-04, about 530 floods were reported, occurring in almost all provinces. The scale of damage is also increasing. This country report describes impact of climate variability and climate change on various sectors in Indonesia and be considered as one of official document of Government of Indonesia that contains the most updated information related to climate variability and climate change. Part of this report has been presented in the International Workshop on Water and Climate on 23-24 May 2007 at Hotel Kemang, Jakarta which was organized by the State Ministry of Environment and the Ministry of Public Works of Republic of Indonesia supported by the Dutch government and in partnership with among others, i.e. Partners for Water (Netherlands), Wetlands International, World Bank, UNESCO and WMO. This report has been prepared with support from many agencies. On behalf of the Government of Indonesia I would like to welcome and endorse this report to wider audience. Feedback and comments will definitely be appreciated in order to improve and updated this report in the future. Let me take this opportunity to extend my sincere gratitude and thanks to authors, reviewers, contributors of this report, who have made the publication possible. Special thanks are extended to Ton Bresser from UNESCOIHE Institute for Water Education, BertJan Heij from Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Hank van Schaik from Co-operative Programme on Water and Climate who have assisted in editing this report. Acknowledgement also extended to Bayu Krisnamurti, R.W. Triweko, Guy Alaerts, Raymond Kemur, and Jan Verhagen who have provided written comments and inputs for the improvement of the report, and to all participants of the Joint International Water and Climate Workshop for their valuable comments. Finally, our appreciation to the United

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Nations Development Program (UNDP) who has provided fully support in the process of finalizing and producing the report. Finally, it is hoped that this report can be one of references showing to the global community how climate variability and climate change has impacted developing countries and what would be the implication if no serious efforts are taken from now to adapt to climate change. Jakarta, December 2007

Masnellyarti Hilman Deputy Minister III for the Minister of Environment National Focal Point to the UNFCCC

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FOREWORD FROM THE Ministry of Environment, Republic of Indonesia

Understanding the historical interactions between society and climate hazards, including adaptations that have evolved to cope with these hazards is a critical first step in developing adaptations to manage future climate risks. Past experiences and lessons learned in addressing climate risks need to be documented as this information is important in developing successful adaptation strategies to climate change. Adaptation will be more successful if it accounts for both current and future climate risks. Even if future adaptation strategies would need to be very different from those currently in use, todays adaptation strategies will allow us to refine the approaches needed in the future. Starting with adaptation to current climate variability with building in additional safety margins for future climate changes is a cost-effective and no regrets approach. Long historical climate data record as well as reliable information on impacts of past and present variable climates is essential for developing adaptation plans. Studies and analysis to understand how the current system behaves to past and present climate variability and what changes should be done and planned to the system to increase the coping range of the system to future climate, are the urgent actions in developing the adaptation programs. This country report is one of important references that provide information on impact of climate variability and climate change on a number of major sectors in Indonesia. Last but not least, I hope this report can provide a glance how climate variability has impacted Indonesia and how future climate may look like and its implication on sectors. And the information contained in this report could meet our current needs on information based on scientific activities that is still lacking in this country.

Jakarta, December 2007 Minister of Environment, Republic of Indonesia

Rachmat Witoelar

FOREWORD FROM THE Ministry of Public Works, Republic of Indonesia Water is fundamental to human well-being, socio-economic development and the healthy evolution of ecosystems. In many countries, including Indonesia, water access and management is a constant challenge. Climate variability and/or climate change is likely to pose an additional burden on water resources and their management, especially in areas where water resources are already under stress due to meteorological and upper-watershed conditions and demand pressure from society. Increased intensity and frequency of storms, drought and flooding, altered hydrological cycles and precipitation variance have implications for future water availability for various uses and sectors, i.e., water supply, agriculture, human health, human settlements, industry, hydro power, fishery, tourism, environmental, etc. In addition to that, the increased of number infrastructure and property damages as well as human injured and loss due to water related disasters are observed for the last ten years. To address these challenges and adapt water management to changing climatic conditions, it is necessary to ensure that the current meteorological trends and information on the future water availability and demands are taken into account in the process of water resources management and policy development. This information ideally should be synthesized in a country report. This country report which was developed by the Inter-sectoral Working Group that was formed by The Minister of Public Works Decree No: 239/KPTS/M/2007, dated 27 April 2007 was intended to be a reference document that provide information on the extend of climate hazards, their impacts and their trends of impact in the future to related sectors for the participants of the Joint International Water and Climate Workshop in May 2007 in Jakarta. During the workshop the country report was presented in order to receive comments and inputs for its improvement. The final version of the country report which already have accommodated most of the comments and the inputs for improvement and finalized through intensive discussion within the Inter-sectoral Working Group is intended to be a formal reference document on the impacts of climate change and adaptation measures in coping with climate change on the water sector and this document will be up dated in each two (2) years in order to accommodate the recent development of the current meteorological trends and their adaptation measures. I hope this country report will serve as a complementary document for the National Action Plan for Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change (RAN-MAPI) and also for inputs on the development the Second National Communication for Mitigation and Adaptation for climate change. Jakarta, December 2007 Minister of Public Works Republic of Indonesia

Djoko Kirmanto

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CONTENTS

Preface (Acknowledgement) Content List of Tables List of Figures Foreword from the Ministry of Environment Foreword from the Ministry of Public Work I. Introduction 1 3 3 3 5 5

II. Climate Hazards in Indonesia 2.1 Type of Climate Related Hazards in Indonesia 2.2 Detecting Changes in Frequency and Intensity of Climate Hazards III. Impact of Extreme Climate Events 3.1 Changes in rainfall 3.2 Impact on Water Reservoirs, Electricity Generation and Drinking Water 3.3 Impact on Agriculture 3.4 Impact on Land and Forest Fires 3.5 Impact on Coastal Zones and Fishery 3.6 Impact on Health IV. Past and Future Climate Change 4.1 Past Global Climate Changes 4.2 Past Changes in Climate, Hydrology an Sea Level 4.3 Future Global Climate Change and Sea Level Rise 4.4 Indonesian Climate in the 21 Century V. Implication of Climate Changes and Sea Level Rise in Indonesia 5.1 Impact of Climate Changes 5.2 Impact of Sea Level Rise VI. Knowledge Gap and Adaptation Programs References Appendix
st

6 7 12 14 14 16 16 17 28 29 35 35 40 44

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LIST OF TABLES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Percent change of rain relative to normal rainfall by provinces 5 Percentage of young plants killed due the long dry season 10 Total economic loss nationally due to fires in 1997 El Nio year (in million USD) 14 Relative sea level rise in a number of observation stations 27 List of small islands that serve as baseline for Indonesian sea territorial 41 Plan for adaptation to climate change in nine sectors 52

LIST OF FIGURES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Degree of exposure to natural hazards and percentage of area affected Global surface mean temperature anomalies during the top 10 El Nio events in this century Number of floods occurred in Indonesia during the period of 2001-2004 Average volume of water at the main water storage in Java during LaNia, El-Nio, and normal years Anomaly of electricity production from 1992-2006 Impact of El-Nio on rice and secondary crops National food crops production in the period 1980-1997. Arrows indicate El-Nio years January-April rice production in relation to monsoon onset Drought index and rice production loss by district Variation of wereng attack during a period of 1989 to 2005 in Indonesia Yield of Palm Oil with age CO2 emission from South East Asia in period of 1991 to 2001. Dashed and solid lines show different degrees of smoothing of the bariability Number of incidence rate and affected cities and districts by dengue Annual trend of dengue incidence rate by districts in Java (a) Anomaly of mean globa sea-land and (b) 2001-2005 mean surface temperature relative to 1951-1980 measured at meteorological stations and ship and satellite SST measurements Observed changes in global average sea level rise from tide gauges (blue) and satellite (red) data and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March-April. All changes are relative to responding averages for the period 1961-1990 Annual rate of maximum (a) and minimum temperature (b) changes over 33 stations in Indonesia Disappearance of snow cover at the Jaya Wijaya Mount at Irian Jaya, Indonesia (left) and melting of glacier at Upsala Argentina (right) Significant decreasing annual rainfall trend in Bengkulu of Sumatra and Ketapang of Kalimantan Annual changes of wet season (a) and dry season rainfall (b) over 30 stations in Indonesia Number of extreme dry month (<5 mm) period for Mojokerto and Pujon from 1955 to 2002 2 4 4 6 6 7 9 9 11 12 12 13 15 15

16

16.

17 18 19 20 21 22

17 18 19. 20. 21.

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22. The changes in onset of wet season and onset of dry season in Sumatra Island 23. The changes in onset of wet season and onset of dry season in Java Island 24. Percentage of rivers which have minimum flows that potentially cause drought (a) and flood problems (b). 25. The change in peak flow and its relationship with flood volume in the 12 rivers in West Java 26. Decreasing trend in base flows (m3/s) of Ciliwung (a), Barito (b) and Larona (c) rivers. 27. Water inflow from local rivers to the three cascade dams of Citarum Watershed (Cirata, Saguling and Jatiluhur) 28. Water quality at Tarum Barat Canal used for drinking water supply at DKI Jakarta 29. Existing operational Sea Level Monitoring Stations in Indonesia 30. Model projections of global mean warming compared to observed warming 31. The change in mean temperature and seasonal rainfall in Indonesia under the two emission scenarios for the five GCM models. 32. Changes in JJA seasonal rainfall for 20702099 relative to 19011960 (mm day-1) from six of the oceanatmosphere climate models, for the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 global warming scenario. Contour line colors correspond to different models. 33. Precipitation trend for JJA of the multimodel ensemble median from 1979 to 2099. Shading indicates_99%significance by the Spearman-rho test. The black line gives the 4 mmday_1 contour from the median climatology (19001999 average) of the models to indicate a typical boundary of the convection zones. 34. Summed precipitation for AprilJune (AMJ) and JulySeptember (JAS) for the present climate (dashed line) and for the future predicted climate, using the A2 scenario 35. Likelihood of exceeding the 30-day monsoon threshold in 2050 for the three EDMs applied to all GCMs for each scenario (15 GCMs for SRESA2 and 19 GCMs for SRESB1. 36. Likely rainfall pattern in Java and Bali 37. Status of clean water availability in 2015 by districts 38. Projection of water status by sub-district at Citarum watersheds with no change in rainfall and water extraction of 10% 39. Projection of water status by sub-district at Citarum watersheds with no change in rainfall and water extraction of 20% using baseline demand scenario 40. Area being inundated in 2050 under different sea level rise and land Subsidence scenarios. 41. Example of long-term plan for adaptation for agriculture sector

22 23 23 23 25 26 26 27 28 30

32

32

33

33 34 37 38

39 42 45

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TEAM OF AUTHORS

Coordinating Lead Authors Rizaldi Boer, Sutardi and Dadang Hilman Lead Authors: Subandono Diposaptono, Orbita Roswintiarti, Agus Supangkat, Firdaus Agung, Nyoman Suryadiputra, Kasdi Subagyono, Agung Bagiawan, Wanny Adhidarma, Irsal Las, Mezak A. Rataq, Edvin Aldrian, Parluhutan Manurung, Ruchiyat Deny, Saeful Anwar, Bambang Arifatmi, Zainal I. Nampira, Dayat Rachman, Rita Kusriastuti, Agus Prabowo, Dony Azdan, Siti Belafoliyani, Bambang Gatot Irianto, Woro Estiningtyas Contributing Authors Adi Rakhman, Nur Pamudji, Lis Novari Trisiane, Aris Harnanto, Sutisna Pitrasaleh, Rini Hidayati, Bambang Dwi Dasanto, Benny Istanto, Adi M, Erni Murniati, Reni Mayasari, Endang Titi Purwani, Atang Saputra, Roni Kurniawan, Rini Agustianingsih

I. INTRODUCTION In the past four decades, climate related hazards such as floods, droughts, storms, landslides and wild fires have caused major loss of human lives and livelihoods, the destruction of economic and social infrastructures as well as environmental damages. In many parts of the world, the frequencies and intensities of these hazards tend to increase (Sivakumar, 2005; ADRC, 2005). Floods and windstorms accounted for 70% of total disasters and the remaining 30% of the total disasters are accounted for by droughts, landslides, forest fires, heat waves and others. Within the period of 2003-2005 alone, there were about 1,429 disaster incidences in Indonesia. About 53.3 percent were hydro-meteorological disasters (Bappenas and Bakornas PB, 2006). Of this figure, floods occur most often (34%), followed by landslides at 16%. It is likely that global warming will lead to greater extremes of drying and heavy rainfall which will in turn lead to higher risk of climate hazards (Trenberth and Houghton, 1996; IPCC, 2007). A report from UN-OCHA (2006) indicates that Indonesia is one of the vulnerable countries to climate related hazards (Figure 1). In the future, a changing climate brought about by global warming is expected to create new patterns of risk, and higher risks generally. Sea level rise due to melting glaciers and polar ice and thermal expansion will contribute to the increase of coastal flooding. Increasing intensity of tropical cyclones observed in recent decades may be tied to increasing sea surface temperatures. By impacting the hydrologic cycle, global warming is expected to alter climatic ranges, shift regional climatic averages, resulting in shifting of climate zones, and lead to a higher frequency and amplitude of weather events. Climate variability and change occurring against a backdrop of increasing global population and globalization of economic processes may be expected to lead to increased competition over resources and new vulnerabilities. With the increase of climate risk, many countries, particularly least developed and developing countries, may have difficulties to achieve the Millennium Development Goals related to poverty, hunger and human health. This country report describes briefly the type of climate hazards in Indonesia and their impact on various sectors, trends of climate change in the past and climate change scenarios in the future as well as their implication on the sectors. Views from sectors on how to address this climate change impact are summarized in the last chapter. The country report was developed based on data and information provided by sectors, reviewed journal articles and project reports. Scientific explanations are not discussed in detail, however, where relevant, short notes on the methodology used for data analysis are provided as foot notes.

The bar charts show the degree of exposure to natural hazards and the percentage of area affected

Figure 1.

Degree of exposure to natural hazards and percentage of area affected (UNOCHA, 2006)

I.

CLIMATE HAZARDS IN INDONESIA

2.1. Type of Climate Related Hazards in Indonesia Floods, droughts, land slides and forest fires are the common types of climate related hazards in Indonesia. The outbreak of crop pests and diseases as well as human vector borne diseases was often reported connected to climate extreme events (Gagnon et al., 2001; Hopp and Foley, 2003). The El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found as one of the natural phenomena that resulted in devastating consequences on climate and cause disasters. In Indonesia, El Nio is often related to drought and La Nia to floods. Based on 43 drought events occurred in the period of 1844-1998, only six drought events were not associated with El-Nio (Boer and Subbiah, 2005, ADB and Bappenas, 1999; Quinn et al., 1978). Moreover, ENSO is considered as one of the overriding control factors in major forest/land fire and haze occurrence and frequency. Climate-related hazards in Indonesia are also caused by the location and movement of the tropical cyclones in the eastern south Indian Ocean (January to April) and the eastern Pacific Ocean (May to December). Essential for cyclone genesis are ocean surface temperature above 26.5qC, latitude beyond 5 degrees, and small vertical wind shear. Since tropical cyclones has sustained surface winds of 32ms-1 or more, its impact to the Indonesia region commonly is local strong winds and heavy rainfall in the order of hours to days. Strong winds also often occur during the transition of the Northeast to Southwest monsoon and vice versa. 2.2. Detecting Changes in Frequency and Intensity of Climate Hazards Over recent years, it is quite clear that the El Nio events have become more frequent as the global temperature anomalies associated with each El Nio continue to increase (Hansen et al., 2006). This means that the extreme regional weather and climate anomalies associated with El Nio are being exacerbated by increasingly higher temperatures (Fig. 2). The warmer conditions have been linked to higher concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The occurrence of extreme climate events in many parts of the world is commonly associated with this natural phenomenon. Therefore, the increase in frequency and intensity of this event may lead to the increase of climate hazards. Observations in the region of South East Asia and Bangladesh during the period 1900 1996 showed that 700 disasters have occurred of which 23% occurred between 1900-1979 (within 79 years), and 77% occurred between 1972 and 1996 (within 24 years) (Sivakumar, 2005). Similarly in Latin America and the Carribean, a noticeable trend of increase in the frequency of climate disasters was observed (Charveriat, 2000). In Indonesia, of 46 massive drought events, about 30 events occurred between 1844 and 1960 (within 117 years), and 16 events occurred between 1961-2006 (within 46 years). Furthermore, flood is also becoming a common hazard. Every year, floods which normally occur during rainy season are reported by a number of provinces. In the period 2001-2004, about 530 floods have been reported and they occurred almost

in all provinces of Indonesia. A rising trend of flood occurrence was also observed in this short period of observation (Figure 3).

Figure 2.

Global surface mean temperature anomalies during the top 10 El Nio events in this century (1914/15, 1917/18, 1940/41, 1957/58, 1965/66, 1972/73, 1982/83, 1986/87, 1991/92, and 1997/98. Source: NCDC/NOAA)

200 Number of Flood Events 150 100 50 0 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004

Figure 3.

Number of floods occurred in Indonesia during the period of 2001-2004 (Source: Provided by the Ministry of Public Works, 2007)

II.

IMPACT OF EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS

3.1. Changes in rainfall As discussed in Chapter II, many of the extreme climate events in Indonesia, particularly droughts, were associated with ENSO. This was primarily due to the significant decrease in rainfall. The impact of the 1982 and 1997 El-Nio events (the two strongest El-Nio years in the last 25 years) on rainfall over Indonesia, has been documented by Irawan (2002). His analysis was based on monthly rainfall data in 1970-1997 by province and the impact was measured based on the percentage of changeof seasonal rainfall relative to the rainfall means during the period. It was found that all provinces had lower seasonal rainfall in these years. Sumatra, Java and Sulawesi consistently showed a decrease of seasonal rainfall, in particular of dry season rainfall (Apr-Sep or May-Oct depending upon the pattern of monthly rainfall of each province, Table 1). The average decrease in dry season (Apr-Sep or May-Oct) and wet season (Oct-Mar or Nov-Apr) Indonesian rainfall in 1997s El-Nio was about 62% and 32% respectively while those in 1982s El-Nio was about 47% and 19% respectively. These results indicate that the effect of ENSO on DS rainfall is stronger than on WS rainfall.
Table 1. Percentage of change of rainfall by province, relative to normal rainfall (average of 1970-1997)

Oct-Mar or Nov-Apr Sumatra -35 Java -34 Bali/Nusa Tenggara -26 Kalimantan -33 Sulawesi -28 Maluku/Ambon -13 Indonesia -32 Source: Irawan (2002)

Island

1997 Apr-Sep or May-Oct -47 -80 -82 -57 -67 -53 -62

Annual -38 -41 -31 -40 -39 -40 -38

Oct-Mar or Nov-Apr -21 -11 -26 -5 -35 -5 -19

1982 Apr-Sep or May-Oct -32 -85 -75 -36 -33 -27 -47

Annual -24 -23 -32 -16 -30 -20 -24

Furthermore, ENSO influences on inter-annual rainfall variability in Indonesia reveal that (USDA, 1984; ADPC, 2000; Yoshino et al., 2000; and Kirono and Partridge, 2002): (i) the end of the dry season occurs later than normal during El Nio and earlier during La Nia years, (ii) the onset of the wet season is delayed during El Nio and advanced during La Nia years, (iii) a significant reduction of dry season rainfalls could be expected during El Nio and significant increase during La Nia years, (iv) long dry spells occur during the monsoon period, particularly in Eastern Indonesia.

3.2. Impact on Water Reservoirs, Electricity Generation and Drinking Water The decrease and increase in rainfall has significant impact on water storage in reservoirs (Figure 4). Significant changes in water volume in the reservoirs (dams) occurred during dry seasons, in particular in dry season II (June-September). Many of these dams have functions for electricity generation and for providing irrigation water and drinking water.
Vo lum Air (% dari (% from Volumee of waterNorm al) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 La-Nina Jatiluhur El-Nino La-Nina El-Nino Kedung Ombo
Okt-Jan (MH) Oct-Jan Feb-Mei (MK I) Feb-May Jun-Sep (MK Jun-Sep II)

Figure 4.

Average volume of water at the main water reservoirs in Java during La-Nia, ElNio, and normal years. WS: wet season, DS: dry season Source: Las et al. (1999)

The occurrence of ENSOs that caused significant decrease of water levels in the reservoirs has caused serious impact on electricity generation. Data from eight Dams (four small dams and four big dams in Java) indicated that in El-Nio years of 1994, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2006 most of the power plants operated in the eight dams produced less electricity than normal (long-term means; Figure 5). The interesting feature was that during the 1994 El-Nio, the four big dams (Cirata, Saguling, Brantas and Jatiluhur) were still able to produce electricity above the long term means, but not in El-Nio years of 1997 onwards.
100 80 Electricity Production Anomaly (% from long term mean) 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Area 1 Area 2 Area 3 Area 4 Cirata Saguling Brantas Jatiluhur

Figure 5.

Anomaly of electricity production from 1992-2006 (Drawn from data provided by PLN., Electricity State Company, 2007).

The shortage of water in the reservoirs during extreme dry years will also influence the availability of drinking water, especially in urban/metro areas. For example, Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, gets drinking water from the Citarum Dam. Under extreme drry years, the water level at Citarum Dam may go down to a level of less than 75 m. Under this condition, the water pump at the dam can not be operated and supply of water to processing the plant will stop. On the other hand, in extreme wet years, the flood will damage the processing plant and contaminate the water. Floods occurred in February 2007 have caused damage in the production installation which amounted to about 2.2 million USD. Heavy rainfall also increases the turbidity and this will increase the cost of water processing. Current technology for water processing is still conventional and it can tolerate the turbidity of between 500 and 2000 NTU. Under emergency, the plant still can be operated even though the turbidity has increased up to 8.000 NTU, but the cost for the processing will increase significantly. If the turbidity goes beyond 8,000 NTU, the plant can not be operated. 3.3. Impact on Agriculture Significant decrease in rainfall in dry seasons has significant impact on food crops production. From historical data, it was shown that, in general, the area affected by drought significantly increased during El Nio years (Figure 6). However, from national production statistics the impact of El Nio, apart from 1982, is not distinct, except for rice (Figure 7). This condition appears due to a number of reasons (Suryana and Nurmalina, 2000; Meinke and Boer, 2002): (i) the statistics are based on calendar years rather than El Nio years, (ii) not all regions of the nation are affected by drought simultaneously, (iii) shortage of water may force a farmer to switch crops from rice to secondary crops, (iv) restricted water supply may reduce the area planted under irrigation but yield of crops may increase due to higher solar radiation, and (v) production may be affected in the year following an El Nio event as farmers have less money to spend on fertilizers or insecticides.
Rice 900 Drought Area (thousand ha) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Completely damage Lightly-heavily affected

Maize 90 80 Drought Area (thousand ha) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Completely damage Lightly-heavily affected

Soybean 35 Drought Area (thousand ha) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Completely damage Lightly-heavily affected

Peanut 25 Drought Area (thousand ha)

Completely damage Lightly-heavily affected

20 15 10 5 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Figure 6.

Impact of El-Nio on rice and secondary crops (Drawn from Data provided by Directorate of Plant Protection, Boer and Subbiah, 2005).

Delay in onset of the rainy season during El-Nio years will also reduce the production of wet season rice (January-April Production; Figure 8). It is suggested that a 30-day monsoon delay will reduce January-April rice production in West/Central Java by about 6.5% and in East Java/Bali 11.0%. Data of historical impacts of El-Nio events on national rice production indicate that the national rice production system is vulnerable to extreme climate events. Whenever El-Nio occurred, the rice productions loss due to drought increased significantly (Figure 9), and the total loss also tended to increase. On average, the production loss due to drought in the period 1991-2000 was three times higher than that, occurring in the period of 1980-1990 (Boer and Las, 2003). This seems to indicate that the national rice production system becomes more vulnerable to extreme climate events. The occurrence of ENSO also has indirect effects on crops. There was an indication that the brown plant hopper (wereng coklat) population increased significantly in La-Nia years probably due to higher rainfall amounts. Wereng attack in West Java, the main rice growing area of Indonesia, increased significantly in years when LaNia occurs, i.e. 1998 and 2005 (Figure 10). In addition, types of major crop pest and diseases have shifted recently. For example in the past pink rice stem borer (Sesamia inferens) was only minor problem in Java (e.g. Indramayu, Magelang, Semarang, Boyolali, Kulonprogo, and Ciamis) compare to yellow rice stem borer (Scirpophaga incertulas), and white rice stem borer (Scirpophaga innnotata). Nowadays this disease become dominant (Nastari Bogor and Klinik Tanaman IPB, 2007). According to Kalshoven (1981), regions with distinct dry seasons are favorable for pink rice stem borer. Bacterial leaf blight (Xanthomonas oryzae pv. Oryza) in the last three years is also dominant diseases for rice crop while before this disease is not important so that research on this diseases is still limited. Saddler (2000) stated that optimal temperature for this disease to grow in around 30oC. Similar phenomena is also observed in non-rice crops. For example, twisting disease caused by Fusarium oxysporum before 1997 is not important disease for red onion crop, but now this becomes very important disease not only in lowland but also in the highland areas. In the last two years, this diseases attack seriously red onion crops in a number of onion production centre such as Brebes (Wiyono, 2007). From laboratory research, this crop when being exposed to high temperature, it become more is less resistant to this disease (Tondok, 2003). The phenomenal example is the appearance of Gemini disease in chili in the last five years in all main chili and potato production centre of Java (Bogor, Cianjur, Brebes, Wonosobo, Magelang, Klaten, Boyolali, Kulonprogo, Blitar, dan Tulungagung; Nastari Bogor dan Klinik Tanaman IPB, 2007). This disease caused by virus which is transmitted to the crops by kutu kebul (Bemisia tabaci). Up to know, research on this disease is still limited. However initial findings suggests that temperature is the main triggering factor for this disease as indicated by the significant increase in Bemisia tabaci population on tomato when temperature was increased from 17 to 30 C (Bonaro et al.., 2007). The explosion of this virus under elevated temperature has been predicted by Boland et al., (2004) in Canada. These above findings may

not be enough to conclude that global warming is the main triggering factor for this disease, however it is undeniable that global warming contributes partly to create this condition.
Rice 14.0 Harvest Area (million ha) 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 Harv est Area Production 53.0 47.5 42.0 36.5 31.0 25.5 20.0

M aize 4.0 Harvest Area (million ha)

Production (million tonnes)

3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0

Harv est Area Production

12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 Production (million tons)

Year

Year

Soybean 2.4 Harvest Area Harvest Area (million ha) Production 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2.0

Peanut 0.8 Harvest Area (million ha)

Production (million tons)

1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0

Harvest Area Production

0.8 Production (million tons)

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.5

0.2

0.4 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996

0.0

Year

Year

Figure 7.

National food crops production in the period 1980-2001. Arrows indicate El-Nio years (Drawn from BPS, Boer and Subbiah, 2005) East Java/Bali

West/Central Java

Figure 8.

January-April rice production in relation to monsoon onset. Note: y axis, timedetrended production, 1982/1983 to 2003/2004 (1,000 metric tons); x axis, Number of days after August 1 when accumulated rainfall reaches to 200 mm. Thus 120 means that onset of rainy season is around 1 December. Year labels correspond to the year of monsoon onset; production (harvest) occurs in the following year (January-April). Dashed lines represent the 30-day threshold. Source: Naylor et al. (2007)

Long dry seasons in El-Nio years affect significantly not only annual crops but also perennial crops. Based on field observation, a long dry season in general destroys young plants. On average, the percentage of young plants (age of less than 2 years) die back due to the long dry season of the El_Nio year 1994 is presented in Table 2.
Table 2. Percentage of young plants killed due the the long dry season of the 1994 El Nio year crop type Tea Rubber Cacao Cashew nut Coffee Coconut Percent Die Back about 22 Between 4 and 9 about 4 Between 1.5 and 11 about 4 Between 5 and 30

Source: Based on data provided by the Directorate General of Plantation, Ministry of Agriculture.

The impact of severe drought on some plantation crops such as coconut and palm oil may not occur during years of drought events but it may be observed a few months later. Hasril et al. (1998) found that the impact of long dry spell on the production of palm oil is significant after 4-9 months (Figure 11).

10

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

Figure 9.

Drought index and rice production loss by district (Drawn from data provided by Directorate of Plant Protection, Boer et al. 2002)

11

90000 80000 Attacked areas (Ha) 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1988 1990
NAD West Java Bali South Sulawesi

1992

1994

1996 Year

1998

2000

2002

2004
Lampung East Java South kalimantan

2006

North Sumatra Central Java West Nusa Tenggara Banten

South Sumatra DI Yogyakarta West kalimantan

Figure 10. Variation of wereng attack during the period of 1989 to 2005 in Indonesia. Source: Drawn from data provided by Directorate of Plant Protection (2007)

14000 Fresh fruit (kg/ha) 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 7 1978 10 1980 13 1981 16 1983 19 1984 22 1986 25 1987 28 1989 31 1990 34 1992 37 1994 40 1995
El-Nio years were 82/92, 91/92, and 94/95

Age (Semester and Year)

Figure 11. Yield of Palm Oil with age (Hasan et al., 1998)

3.4. Impact on Land and Forest Fire The extent of land and forest fires in Indonesia is also closely related to ENSO events. In El-Nio years, the total area of land and forest being burnt by fires increased significantly and this lead to much of the increase in levels of atmospheric CO2. For example in the 1991/92, 1994/95 and 1997/98 El-Nio years, the carbon emission from fires measured in 97 monitoring stations across South East Asian countries increased significantly (Schimel and Baker 2002). Wildfires in Indonesia were responsible for much of the increase (Page et al. 2002). Most of the carbon emission from fire in Indonesia during 1997/98 came from peat fire. Total area of

12

fire-damaged forested peat land for whole Indonesia during this time might reach 6.8 million ha (Page et al. 2002).

Figure 12. CO2 emission from South East Asia in the period of 1991 to 2001. Dashed and solid lines show different degrees of smoothing of the variability (Schimel and Baker 2002).

Forest fires have a direct impact on the physical environment, namely on forest ecosystems as they disrupts forest function, pollution of watershed areas and reduction of biological diversity, while at the same time pollution of the atmosphere occurs (MoE and UNDP, 1998). Air pollution, especially aerosols, produced by fires reduces visibility, disrupting land, air and water traffic. Visibility of less than one kilometer halts air traffic. In the case of 1997 fires, in some cities the visibility was only about 10 m (MoE and UNDP, 1998). Diseases or health problems caused by air pollution include acute respiratory infection (ARI), bronchial asthma, bronchitis and eyes and skin irritation. The total number of health cases during the 1997 fires in 8 provinces (Riau, West Sumatra, Jambi, South Sumatra, West, Central, South and East Kalimantan) reached about 9 million cases (MoE and UNDP, 1998). MoE and UNDP (1998) and WWF&EEPSEA (1998) reported that the total economic loss nationally due to the 1997 fires amounted to 662 and 1056 million USD (Table 2). Furthermore, OFDA/CRED (2007) stated that this fire was one of the top 10 natural hazards occurred in the period of between 1907 and 2007 and value of all damages and economic losses directly or indirectly related to the 1997/98 fires might reach 17,000 million USD, much higher than those reported by the previous two studies.

13

Table 3. Total economic loss due to fires nationally in the 1997 El-Nio year (in Million USD) Sectors Agriculture Forestry Health cost Transmigration Transportation Tourism Fire cost control TOTAL MoE and UNDP (1998) 88.6 508.2 43.8 0.2 13.6 4.9 3.2 662.4 WWF & EEPSEA (1998) 130.7 640.6 256.7 0.0 4.9 19.6 3.3 1055.6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

3.5. Impact on Coral Ecosystems The increase in sea temperature during the 1997 El-Nio year has caused serious problems for the coral ecosystems. Wetland International (Burke et al., 2002) reported that the 1997 El-Nio has damaged about 18% of the coral ecosystems in South East Asia. Coral bleaching was observed in many places such as in the eastern part of Sumatra, Java, Bali, and Lombok. In thousands islands (north of the Jakarta coast), about 90-95% of the corals located 25 m below sea surface has been bleached. 3.6. Impact on Health Extreme weather related to ENSO may also contribute to the outbreak of human diseases such as malaria, dengue, diarrhea, cholera and other vector borne diseases. In Dhaka, Bangladesh the cholera cases correspond significantly to local maxima in ENSO, and this climate phenomenon accounts for over 70% of disease variance (Rodo et al., 2002). In Africa, malaria disease outbreak was triggered by the occurrence of above normal rainfall (Moji et al., 2002). This finding has been used as one of the indicators to warn the possibility of malaria outbreak. In Indonesia Dengue cases are also found to increase significantly in La-Nia years (Figure 13) when seasonal rainfall increased above normal. A significant increasing trend in the number of dengue cases was also observed in Java. Based on data of dengue incidence rate from 1992 to 2005, it was found that in many big cities, especially in Java, the incidence rate of dengue increased consistently from year to year (Figure 14) peaking in La-Nia years.

14

Incidence Rate per 100.000

Figure 13. Number of incidence rate of dengue histogram and of affected cities and districts line in Indonesia (Source: Depkes RI dalam www.tempointeraktif.com). Note: 1973, 1988 and 1998 are La-Nia years.

Number of affected

Between -6 and -3 Between -3 and 0 Between 0 and 3 Between 3 and 6 Between 6 and 9

Between 9 and 12 Between 12 and 15 Between 15 and 18 Between 18 and 21 Between 21 and 24

Figure 14. Annual trend of dengue incidence rate in districts in Java (cases/100,000 people). Source: (drawn from data provided by Depkes, 2007).

15

IV. PAST AND FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE 4.1. Past Global Changes in Climate and Sea Level Rapid increase in greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere has been pointed out as a main factor causing global warming and climate change. In the period of 1950 to 1998, it was estimated that about 270 (+30) Gt of carbon has been released to the atmosphere. About 40% of the carbon emission came from human activities such as burning fossil fuels, industry activities and deforestation, and 60% from natural processes. CO2 is partly absorbed again by ocean and terrestrial ecosystems. Carbon dioxide is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. IPCC (2007) reported that the global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280 ppm to 379 ppm in 2005. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide in 2005 exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years (180 to 300 ppm) as determined from ice cores. Since the beginning of continuous direct atmospheric measurements (1960), it is clear that the annual growth of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere occurring between 1995 and 2005 (1.9 ppm per year) was larger than that occurring between 1960 and 2005 (1.4 ppm per year), although there is a year-to-year variability in growth rates. The rapid increase of this gas has caused global temperature increase (Figure 15).

Figure 15. (a) Anomaly of mean global sea-land and (b) 2001-2005 mean surface temperature relative to 19511980 measured at meteorological stations and ship and satellite SST measurements (Hansen et al., 2006)

The associated increase in global temperature caused an increase in sea level rise due to ice melting and thermal expansion of sea water (Figure 16). The global warming may lead to changes in regional climate, like changes in precipitation (amount of heavy rainfall) and in climate extremes such as number of hot days and number of long dry spells. The effect of global warming will be superimposed on decadal climate variability, such as that caused by the inter-decadal or Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and on inter annual fluctuations caused by the ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation (Salinger, 2005). All this may lead to a century of increasing climate variability and change, expected to be unprecedented in the history of human settlement and agrarian activities.

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4.2. Past Changes in Climate, Hydrology, and Sea Level in Indonesia

Temperature. Based on trend analysis of maximum and minimum temperature data of 1980-2002 for 33 stations, a significant increase in maximum and minimum temperature was observed in most of the stations. The rate of change varied from one station to another station (Figure 17). The highest rate of minimum temperate changes was observed in Polonia-Medan (0.172oC per year) while that of maximum temperature changes was observed in Denpasar (0.087oC per year). On average the rate of changes in minimum and maximum temperature over the 33 stations was 0.047oC and 0.017oC per year respectively.

Figure 16. Observed changes in global average sea level rise from tide gauges (blue) and satellite (red) data and Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March-April. All changes are relative to corresponding averages for the period 1961-1990 (IPCC, 2007).

The locations of the stations that monitor the air temperature are mostly in urban areas. The increase in population, industries and transportation activities in these areas may contribute partly to the increase of the temperature. It is quite difficult to quantify the single effect of the increase of the GHG concentration on site-specific temperatures t. However, there is much evidence that global warming is occurring. For example, much snow that covers the Jayawijaya Mount of Irian Jaya in the past has disappeared already. Similar feature was also observed in other country such as in melting of glaciers in the Upsala Mount of Argentina (Figure 18).

17

(a)

(b)

Figure 17. Annual rate of maximum (a) and minimum temperature (b) changes over 33 stations in Indonesia (significant at 5% level; rate of changes < 0.04oC; between 0.04 and 0.07oC ; and > 0.07oC;. Source: Data provided by BMG and analysed by Boer et al. (2007).

18

Figure 18. Disappearance of snow cover at the Jaya Wijaya Mount at Irian Jaya, Indonesia (left) and melting of glacier at Upsala Argentina (right)

Rainfall. Based on a record of historical annual rainfall data with a length of about 43 years, from 63 stations (period of record varied from the earliest year 1950 and the latest 1974 until 1997), it was found that all stations show a decreasing trend of annual rainfall depth during the last decades, except for stations in the Lesser Sunda Islands and the eastern coast of Java and the northern part of Indonesia (e.g. Sumatra) (Aldrian, 2007)1. The decrease varies among stations. It was found that in the period of 1968 and 1997, the large significant decrease of trends were observed in Bengkulu, Sumatra and Ketapang, Kalimantan, i.e. 71.79 and 29.71 mm/year respectively (Figure 19). A similar study conducted by Boer et al. (2007) also showed that there was a significant decreasing trend in both seasonal rainfalls (rainy and dry seasons). Most of the wet season rainfall of stations located in the southern part of Indonesia (South Sumatra, Java and Eastern Indonesia) tended to increase (Figure 20a) while that of dry season rainfall tended to decrease (Figure 20b). Whereas in the stations located in the northern part of Indonesia (e.g. Sumatra), rainfall in both seasons showed a slight increase. Furthermore, Aldrian and Djamil (2006) also studied the change of rainfall pattern in the Brantas Catchment Area based on 40 daily rainfall stations from 1955 to 2002. They found that number of extreme dry months that was increasing for the last five decades, particularly in areas near to the coast. In coastal areas, the number of extreme dry months increased to 4 months in the last ten years and in 2002 it reached 8 months which was considered as the longest dry season for the whole five decades (Figure 21). In the mountain areas, amount of dry months in about 1-2
1

Trend analysis was done using the Mann Kendall trend test (Gilbert, 1987) and the linear regression of Sens estimate (Salmi et al., 2002).

19

months for the last ten years with maximum number of 4 months (Figure 21). Thus there was a decrease in monsoonal strength and the shifted balances between the wet season and dry season during the last five decades. This study suggests that the lowland areas are more susceptible to the climate change.
7000 6000 Annual Rainfall (mm) 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996

Bengkulu: Y=-71.8X + 5451

Formatted: Font: Times Roman, 8 pt

Ketapang: Y=-29.7X + 4010

Formatted: Font: Times Roman, 8 pt

Figure 19. Significant decreasing annual rainfall trend in Bengkulu of Sumatra and Ketapang of Kalimantan (Reconstructed from Aldrian, 2007)

The shifted balances between the wet and dry seasons will lead to the shifted onset of seasons. Based on mean data of onset of the rainy and dry season in the period of 1961 to 1990 and that of 1991 and 2003, it can be indicated that the onset of the seasons have changed in a number of regions of Sumatra and Java islands (Figure 22 and 23). In most of the Sumatra region, the onset of the wet season delayed between 1 and 2 dekads (one dakad equal to 10 days), while the onset of dry seasons advanced between 1 and 6 dekads, except in some of areas in the eastern part of Sumatra. A similar feature was also observed in Java. Hydrology. Changes in stream flow are not only due to changes in rainfall but also due to changes in land use and land cover and water use. Many studies suggest that the fluctuations of stream flow will increase with the decrease in forest cover. Recent studies indicated that the actual forest cover of Indonesia in 2000 was about 81.6 millions ha. With a deforestation rate of around 1.6 millions ha per year (Kartodihardjo, 1999), almost three times the deforestation rate in the eighties (600.000 ha/year), it is presumed that the forest cover in Indonesia in the year 2008 could be 68.8 millions ha only, or almost 53% of the forest cover of Indonesia in 1990 (Rosalina et al., 2003). The high rate of deforestation has caused serious problems in many watersheds in Indonesia Based on data from 52 rivers in Indonesia, it was found that the number of rivers in which the minimum flow potentially would cause drought problems has increased significantly. Similarly, the number of rivers in which the peak flow potentially causes flooding also increased quite significantly (Figure 24). Based on two year observations at 12 rivers in West Java, it was also found that peak flow in the 12 rivers in 1999 has increased significantly compare to that of 1981 (Figure 25). The increase in peak flow will increase flood volume. These findings suggest that the risk of drought and flood will definitely increase under the changing climate, if

20

no significant efforts are going to be undertaken to increase forest cover, particularly in regions with high rainfall such as Sumatra and Java.

Between -21 and -24 mm/yr Between -18 and -21 mm/yr Between -15 and -18 mm/yr Between -9 and -12 mm/yr Between -6 and -9 mm/yr Between -3 and -6 mm/yr Between 0 and -3 mm/yr

Between 0 and 3 mm/yr Between 3 and 6 mm/yr Between 6 and 9 mm/yr Between 9 and 12 mm/yr Between 12 and 15 mm/yr Between 15 and 18 mm/yr

Between 18 and 21 mm/yr Between 21 and 27 mm/yr Between 27 and 30 mm/yr Between 30 and 36 mm/yr

Figure 20.

Annual changes of wet season (a) and dry season rainfall (b) over 30 stations in Indonesia (significant at 5% level). Source: Data provided by BMG and analysed by Boer et al. (2007)

21

(a) Coastal Area (Mojokerto)

Formatted: Font: Times Roman, 9 pt

Number of Dry Month

Formatted: Font: Times Roman, 9 pt

(b) Mountain Area (Pujon)

Number of Dry Month Figure 21. Number of extreme dry month (<5 mm) period for Mojokerto and Pujon from 1955 to 2002. Curve on each graph is polynomial regression on the fifth power (Aldrian and Djamil, 2006)

(a) Wet season

(b) Dry season

No Change Advanced 1-2 dekads Advanced 3-4 dekads

No Change Advanced 1-2 dekads Advanced 3-4 dekads

Figure 22. The changes in onset of wet season and dry season in Sumatra Island. One dekad equal to 10 days. Source (BMG, 2004)

22

(a) Wet season

No Change Advanced 1-2 dekads Advanced 3-4 dekads

(b) Dry season

No Change Advanced 1-2 dekads Advanced 3-4 dekads

Figure 23. The changes in onset of wet season and dry season in Java Island. One dekad equal to 10 days. Source (BMG, 2004)

Percent of river with minimum flow potentially caused drought

Year

Percent of river with maximum flow potentially caused flood

(a)

(b)

Year

Figure 24. Percentage of rivers which have minimum and peak flows that potentially cause drought (a) and flood problems (b). Source: Loebies (2001).
140 Peak Flow (m3/s). 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
M Ci l id dl iwu e C ng U pp iliw er u C ng iliw un g C is Cilu eu ar Lo s we eup r C an iliw un Ka g tu la m pa Tu gu C ie C se is uk k ab iru s C is ar ua C ib og o
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 Peak Flow (m 3 /s) 1981 1999

1981 1999

Figure 25. The change in peak flow and its relationship with flood volume in 12 rivers in West Java (Reanalyzed based on data from Pawitan, 2002)

23

Flood Volume (1000 m )

Based on stream flow data from 1990 to present, a decreasing trend in base flows has been observed in a number of stations of major rivers in Indonesia such as the Ular river (North Sumatra), Tondano River (North Sulawesi), Citarum river (West Java), Brantas (East Java), Ciliwung-Katulampa (West Java), Barito-Muara Teweh (Central Kalimantan), Larona-Warau (South Sulawesi). A significant decrease in the base flow was observed in some of these rivers (Figure 26). These significant decreases were caused partly by the increase in water use and the decrease in forest cover in the upper part of the river basins, particularly in the Ciliwung River. From long historical data of water inflow from local rivers to the three cascade dams of the Citarum watershed (Cirata, Saguling and Jatiluhur), it was found that the maximum, mean and minimum water inflow from the local rivers decreased significantly (Figure 27). The rate of decrease is more pronounced for peak flow, i.e. 6.5 m3 s-1 year-1. A similar decreasing pattern was also observed in rainfall. Pawitan (2002) found that the annual rainfall in the upper Citarum stations decreased at a rate of about 10 mm per year (based on rainfall data in the period of 1896-1994). The quality of water in the Citarum watershed also decreased significantly. Observations at station B.Tb.49 located at Tarum Barat Canal showed that a rapid change in turbidity occurred after 1997 (Figure 28). A similar pattern was observed in some other monitoring stations. The decrease in the water quality will increase cost for processing the water.

24

81

60

40

A 20

1 A 900101 25.days/mm 9301 9401 9501 9601 9701 9801 9901 0001 site 2120102 020120102 Ciliwung at Ciliwung-Katulampa Debit m3/det .734units/mm Origin 1 0101

A YYYMM

6930 6000

4000 A A

2000

0 A
610

770101 8001 8301 8601 8901 9201 9501 s it e 3 2 7 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 2 7 0 0 0 1 S B A r it o a t S B a r it o - M T e w e h

9801 YM M Y

500

400

300

200 A 100 A 0 760101 A 7701 7801 7901 8001 8101 8201 site 4570006 040570006 S Larona at S Larona-Warau Debit m3/det 8301 8401 8501 YYMM

Figure 26. Decreasing trend in base flows (m3/s) of Ciliwung (a), Barito (b) and Larona (c) rivers. Source: Puslitbang Air Bandung (2007).

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800 700 Inflow from Local River (m3/s 600 500 400 300 200 100

Max = -6.5492x + 13484 R2 = 0.4323 Mean = -3.6782x + 7534.4 R2 = 0.4608 Min = -0.5119x + 1066.7 R2 = 0.0244

0 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991

1995 1999 2003

Figure 27. Water inflow from local rivers to the three cascade dams of Citarum Watershed (Cirata, Saguling and Jatiluhur). Source: Drawn from data provided by PLN (2007)
1,000 900 800 700 Turbidity (NTU). 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Figure 28. Water quality at Tarum Barat Canal used for drinking water supply at DKI Jakarta (Observation station of B.Tb.49). Source: Drawn from Data provided by PJT2 (2007)

Sea Level Rise. Indonesia has installed a number of instruments to monitor sea level (Figure 29). The existing Indonesia Sea Level Monitoring Network consists of 65 operational stations2. Increasing trends in MSL has been observed in a number of stations. However the rate of increase varies with locations (Table 3). The relative sea level rise will accelerate wide spread because of coastal erosion where the land border has been subsiding.

More stations will be installed through an ongoing program called the establishment of Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System (IndTEWS), started from 2006 to end of 2008. The network will consists of 120 stations of which 80 stations using real time data transmission and at least two quality sea level recordings. Solar cell power supply for each station ensuring an availability of back up for continuous measurement.

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Figure 29. Existing operational Sea Level Monitoring Stations in Indonesia Table 4. Relative sea level rise in a number of observation stations

Stations Location Cilacap Belawan Jakarta Semarang Surabaya Sumatra Panjang, Lampung

Sea Level (mm/year) 1.30 7.83 4.38 7.00 9.37 5.00 1.00 5.47 4.15

Rise

Source Hadikusuma, 1993 ITB, 1990 ITB, 1990 Based on data from 1984-20063 ITB. 1990 Based on data from 1984-2006 Based on data from 1984-2006 ITB, 1990 P3O-LIPI, 1991

A phenomenon called ROB, inundation of coastal areas during spring tide, has been observed in Demak since 1995. This phenomenon has affected more than 650 ha of coastal areas in six villages, i.e. Sriwulan, Bedono, Timbul Seloka, Surodadi, Babalan and Beran Wetan. It also damages infrastructures such as roads and railways. During these bad conditions, those infrastructures are failed to function and create problems for transportation and economy. Responding to the impacts, the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fishery together with the local government, has been implementing a number of activities, i.e. rehabilitation of mangrove areas, coastal sediment stabilization, and construction of pile-houses. Impact of this phenomenon is enhanced as the land subsidence continues. Problems of land subsidence has been observed in a number of cities mainly due to overexploitation of ground water.

The derived water levels are a combination of changes in the sea level and the vertical land motion at the location of the gauge. Therefore, the trends derived are relative MSL trends and can be considered valid only for a region near the gauge with uniform vertical land motion.

27

4.3. Future Global Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Global Temperature Rise. Due to the increase in human activities in consuming energy and forest conversion, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will continuously increase. Scientific evidence shows that during the course of the 21st century the global-average surface temperatures are likely increasing by 2.0-4.5oC as the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase. The first problem in assessing future climate change is how to estimate the likely change in greenhouse gases emissions in the future. Many trajectories might occur as the level of emissions is closely related to population growth, socio-economic development, and technology changes. Implementation of climate policy or GHG emission targets by developed countries as stated in the Kyoto Protocol may also affect the rate of the GHG emissions. Therefore, in estimating future emissions the IPCC has developed a number of scenarios (IPCC 2000) using several assumptions of the driving forces. The scenarios provide alternative images of how the future might unfold and are an appropriate tool with which to analyze how the driving forces may influence future emission outcomes and to assess associated uncertainties. Figure 30 provides likely changes in global temperature when emission scenarios follow SRESB1, SRESA1B, SRESA2 and commitment under the Kyoto Protocol.

Figure 30. Model projections of global mean warming compared to observed warming. Observed temperature anomalies are shown as annual (black dots) and decadal average values (black line). Source: 4th AR of IPCC (2007)

Sea Level Rise. The increase in temperature in the future will cause sea level rise as a result of the thermal expansion of seawater as it warms and melting of glaciers and the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. It was estimated that the volumes of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are equivalent to approximately

28

7 m and 57 m of sea level rise, respectively (IPCC, 2007). In the period of 19612003, mass loss of glaciers and ice caps (excluding those around the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica) is estimated to be 0.50 0.18 mm per year in sea level equivalent (SLE), and in the period of 1991-2003 it was about 0.77 0.22 mm per year. These estimates have a high degree of confidence (Figure 31). Based on climate models, it was indicated that thermal expansion is expected to continue to contribute substantially to sea level rise over the next 100 years (IPCC, 2007). Projection of sea level rise to 2020 under scenario of SRES A1B in the ensemble of AOGCMs4, the rate of thermal expansion is projected to be 1.3 0.7 mm per year, and is not significantly different under the A2 or B1 scenarios. These projected rates are within the uncertainty of the observed contribution of thermal expansion for 1993 to 2003 of 1.6 0.6 mm per year (IPCC, 2007). Since deep ocean temperatures change only slowly, thermal expansion would continue for many centuries even if atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases were stabilized (IPCC, 2007). 4.4. Indonesian Climate in the 21st Century Global warming may lead to changes in regional climate, like changes in precipitation (amount of heavy rainfall) and in climate extremes such as number of hot days, and number of long dry spells. Salinger (2005) stated that the effect of global warming will be superimposed on decadal climate variability, such as that caused by the inter decadal or Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and on inter annual fluctuations caused by the ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation. All this may lead to a century of increasing climate variability and change, expected to be unprecedented in the history of human settlement and agrarian activities. Boer and Faqih (2005) assessed the impact of increase in GHG concentration under the two scenarios (SRESA2 and SRESB2)5. The assessment was conducted based on five GCMs, i.e. GCMs, CCSR-NIESS, CGCM1, CSIRO, ECHAM4 and HadCM3. The monthly data of the GCMs outputs from the two scenarios were taken from the Data Distribution Center. Mean temperature and rainfall changes over the Indonesian region in 2020, 2050 and 2080 were calculated based on grids data in the areas of between 17 N-17 S and 90 E-147 E. The results of the analysis showed that the Indonesian temperature means will increase at a rate of about

AOGCM or Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Model is a numerical representation of the climate system based on the physical, chemical and biological properties of its components, their interactions and feedback processes, and accounting for all or some of its known properties. The atmosphere and ocean general circulation model components are three-dimensional, time-dependent models that include a representation of the equations of motion on a sphere. In addition to atmosphere and ocean components, the term AOGCM is often applied to computer models that include land surface and sea ice model components. The model components are coupled, in the sense that fluxes are regularly exchanged between the different model components as they march forward in time (Source: http://data1.gfdl.noaa.gov/nomads/forms/deccen/glossary/glossary.html) 5 Concentration of GHG in the atmosphere in 2025, 2050 and 2100 under the SRESA2 would be about 440, 535, 825 ppm respectively and under the SRESB2 about 425, 480, and 600 ppm respectively.

29

0.0344 oC per year for SRESA2 and about 0.0211oC per year for SRESB2 (Figure 31).
DJF_SRESA2 20 15

DJF_SRESB2 20 15 R a in fa ll C h a n g e (% ) 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20

CCSR CGCM1 CSIRO ECHAM4 HadCM3
CCSR CGCM1 CSIRO ECHAM4 HadCM3

R a in fa ll C h a n g e (% )

10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Temperature change (oC)

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

3.0 3.5 4.0

Temperature change (oC)

M AM _SRESB2
20 15 Rainfall Change (% ) 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20
CCSR CGCM1 CSIRO ECHAM4 HadCM3

M AM _SRESA2
20 15 Rainfall Change (% ) 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Temperature change (oC)
CCSR CGCM1 CSIRO ECHAM4 HadCM3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Temperature change (oC)

JJA_SRESA2
20 15 Rainfall Change (% ) Rainfall Change (% ) 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Temperature change (oC)
CCSR CGCM1 CSIRO ECHAM4 HadCM3

JJA_SRESB2
20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Temperature change (oC)
CCSR CGCM1 CSIRO ECHAM4 HadCM3

SON_SRESA2
20 15 Rainfall Change (% )
Rainfall Change (% ) 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20

SON_SRESB2

10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Temperature change (oC)
CCSR CGCM1 CSIRO ECHAM4 HadCM3

CCSR CGCM1 CSIRO ECHAM4 HadCM3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Temperature change (oC)

Figure 31. The change in mean temperature and seasonal rainfall in Indonesia under the two

30

emission scenarios for the five GCM models. The data points in the left represent data for 2020, the middle for 2050 and the right for 2080 (Boer and Faqih, 2005).

The impact of the increased GHG concentration on rainfall also varied between GCM models and between the scenarios (Figure 31). The CCSR and CSIRO models suggested that the seasonal rainfall would increase consistently in the period between 2020 and 2080 under both scenarios, except for SON (Sep-Nov) rainfall. Whereas, for ECHAM4 and CGCM1, the rainfall would decrease consistently. For HadCM3, the impact was not consistent. For example the DJF (Dec-Feb) rainfall might not change up to 2020, but it would increase up to 2.5% from the baseline in 2050 and then it decreased up to 2% from the baseline in 2080. Regions with decreasing rainfall might be exposed to high drought risk (long dry spell), while those with increasing rainfall might be exposed to high flood risk. The return period of such extreme events might also increase. This study indicates that the impact of global warming on rainfall in Indonesia could not be generalized. A study conducted by Neelin et al. (2006) in tropical region using a multimodel ensemble of global warming simulations indicates that most of models agree on the overall amplitude of the precipitation decreases that occur at the margins of the convective zones, with percent error bars of magnitude similar to those for the tropical warming6 (Figure 32). Focusing in Indonesia, it is quite clear that in regions of the southern part of the equator line (South of Sumatra, Java and most of eastern part of Indonesia) more models suggest the decreasing trend in JJA rainfall (indicated by darker shading) than in regions of the northern part of the equator line (Central and North Sumatra and northern part of Kalimantan). Further analysis also suggests that the precipitation median trend for JJA decreases in the regions of the southern part of equator, but it increases in the regions of the northern part of the equator (Figure 33). More detail study conducted by Naylor et al. (2007) using more GCMs and empirical downscaling models7 indicates that under the SRESA2 scenario total AMJ rainfall in Java and Bali is expected to increase relative to the current pattern by
6 To provide a measure of amplitude growth, Neelin et al. (2006) project each models precipitation change field onto spatial patterns that are constant in time and are chosen to reflect each models typical precipitation response for dry and wet regions (negative and positive anomalies), respectively. The two spatial patterns for each model are defined by the precipitation change for 20702099 (relative to the 19011960 base period) in the tropics (lat 23S to lat 23N). This pattern is divided into negative and positive anomalies, each normalized by their respective spatial residual means square. The late-21stcentury precipitation change is used to characterize each models preferred pattern. 7 Projections of rainfall change was done using 15 different GCMs and three empirical downscaling models (EDMs). Predictors used in the EDM1 were 850-mb specific humidity, EDM2 850-mb specific humidity and sea-level pressure and EDM3 [850-mb used specific humidity, upper (200-mb)- and lower (850-mb)-level zonal winds. The 850-mb specific humidity represents possible changes in the hydrological cycle that arise as a result of mean warming. Sea level pressure variations are strongly related to the dynamical circulation in the tropics (e.g., ENSO and the Walker circulation) and the seasonal cycle. Zonal winds represent the monsoon shear line and therefore correspond very strongly to variations in monsoon onset date. As the monsoon sets in, the surface winds shift from easterly to westerly, and winds aloft shift from westerly to easterly. Thus, upper- and lower-level winds may capture changes in monsoon onset and retreat (Naylor et al., 2007).

31

about 10% on average, but to decrease in JAS by about 1025%. The decline in JAS rainfall could be up to 50% in West/Central Java and 75% in East Java/Bali at the tail end of the distributions. In East Java/Bali, some models projected that total rainfall would drop close to zero for the JAS (Figure 34). Under SRESB1, the projection of changes is similar to those of SRESA2 until 2050. Furthermore, the onset of the rainy season in Java and Bali may also delay under a changing climate. However, the uncertainty is quite high as illustrated by the wide range of results among GCMs for a given EDM (Figure 35). Nevertheless, it is clear that a 30-day delay in monsoon onset is very likely to occur more frequently in 2050 than it does today (Figure 35). Based on these two findings, it is very likely that the rainfall pattern in Java and Bali will change in the future. The pattern of change is quite similar to what has happened in the past (see section 4.2). The onset of the rainy season will delay, while the onset of the rainy season will advance. This means that the length of rainy season will shorten.

Figure 32. Changes in JJA seasonal rainfall for 20702099 relative to 19011960 (mm day-1) from six of the oceanatmosphere climate models, for the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 global warming scenario. Contour line colors correspond to different models. Shading denotes precipitation decreases exceeding 0.5 mm day-1, with darker shading where these regions overlap for more than one of the three models shown on each panel. The dashed black contour gives the observed climatological 4 mm day-1 contour, which typifies the shape of the mean convection zones. Source: Neelin et al. (2006)

Figure 33. Precipitation trend for JJA of the multimodel ensemble median from 1979 to 2099. Shading indicates_99%significance by the Spearman-rho test. The black line gives

32

the 4mmday_1 contour from the median climatology (19001999 average) of the models to indicate a typical boundary of the convection zones. Source: Neelin et al. (2006)

Figure 34. Summed precipitation for AprilJune (AMJ) and JulySeptember (JAS) for the present climate (dashed line) and for the future predicted climate, using the A2 scenario (Naylor et al., 2007)

Figure 35. Likelihood of exceeding the 30-day monsoon threshold in 2050 for the three EDMs applied to all GCMs for each scenario (15 GCMs for SRESA2 and 19 GCMs for SRESB1. The thick rectangle shows the middle tercile, and the horizontal lines on either side show the lower and upper terciles. The arrows indicate the mean future probability for all GCMs. The vertical lines show the observed probability for 19832004 (Naylor et al., 2007).

The interesting findings are that the results of the above different studies are quite consistent and future wet and dry season rainfall trend follows the past trends. This means that the trend of change occurring in the past may continue to the future,

33

particularly in the regions located in the southern part of the equator such as South Sumatra, Java, Bali and eastern part Indonesia. In the regions of the northern part of the equator, the pattern of change may be the opposite, however, the level of confidence may be lower as the study for these regions based on a very limited number of data record and models. Considering these finding, it is very likely that in Java and Bali the length of the rainy season in general may shorten and its rainfall depth may be higher than the current climate (Figure 36). This suggests that in the future most of these regions will be exposed to higher flood risks and drought risks. Whereas for regions in the northern part of equator the pattern of change in general will be the opposite and this may have better impact.
Future climate

Present climate

Rainfall
August

December

May

Figure 36. Likely rainfall pattern in Java and Bali (Drawn based on finding of Naylor et al, 2007)

34

V. IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGES AND SEA LEVEL RISE IN INDONESIA

Based on historical evidences, it is quite clear that past emissions cause some unavoidable warming in the future (delayed effects) even if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remain at 2000 levels (IPCC, 2007). In Indonesia, a significant increasing trend of air temperature is observed in many parts of the region (see Figure 13). Onset of the rainy season and the dry season delayed or advanced depending on locations (see Figure 22 and 23). Rainfall patterns also change. In most of the area of Java, Bali and South Sulawesi, the depth of rainfall in the rainy season tended to increase while that in the dry season tended to decrease, while other parts show an opposite pattern (see Figure 17). The length of the rainy season in some parts also shortens or lengthens. Under elevated CO2 concentrations these changes may continue and may bring the country into higher climate risks. In Java and Bali, the length of the rainy season may be shorter, and its rainfall depth will increase whereas dry season rainfall may decrease (see Figure 34-35). The connection between global warming and the change in inter-annual climate variability is not clear yet. However, there is strong historical evidence showing that El Nio events have become more frequent and stronger as the global temperature anomalies associated continue to increase as suggested by Figure 2. This means that the extreme regional weather and climate anomalies associated with El Nio are being exacerbated by increasingly higher temperatures. Thus, in the future the intensity and the frequency of extreme weather and climate events may increase. Furthermore, the sea level rise may also continue due to thermal expansion of the ocean even if atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases were stabilized (IPCC, 2007). These changes can slow the pace of progress toward sustainable development either directly through increased exposure to adverse impacts or indirectly through erosion of the capacity to adapt to the changes. The following paragraphs discuss briefly the implications of climate changes and sea level rise in a number of sectors. 5.1. Impact of Climate Change Changes in rainfall pattern and length of the rainy season will have serious implications for the agriculture sector. The current cropping pattern might not be practicable anymore in the future. At present, the cropping pattern used in most of the rice growing areas of Indonesia is rice-rice. The second planting depends heavily on irrigation water. Under extreme drought years, the availability of irrigation water is becoming very limited and this normally will cause huge rice production loss (see Figure 9). Under a changing climate, the occurrence of extreme climate events (drought) will be more frequent than the current climate and there is a possibility that the dry season will persist for longer periods. Keeping this cropping pattern in the future may expose Indonesian farmers to more frequent crop failures. Thus, in areas where the pattern of rainfall changes into this direction farmers should

35

alter their cropping pattern from rice-rice to rice-non rice. If the rice-rice pattern is maintained, development or improvement of water storage and irrigation facilities will be required for balancing increased rainfall in AMJ with decreased rainfall in JAS so that irrigation water is still available during the dry season. More efforts to create new short maturing rice varieties should also be in place to anticipate the shorter wet season. The increase in temperatures and CO2 concentrations will also affect rice yields. Some studies showed that for every 1C increase in the minimum temperature, rice yields decrease by 10% (Peng et al., 2004). At a global scale, increased CO2 concentrations may have a positive impact on crop yields. However, recent studies indicated that the fertilization effect from elevated CO2 on crop yields is significantly smaller than previously predicted (Long et al., 2006). Global models that combine precipitation, temperature, and CO2 effects for the A2 scenario generally show reduced yields in the tropics (Amien et al., 2004). The increase in temperature and the changes in rainfall pattern and length of seasons may also trigger the development of crop pests and diseases. For example, BPH (Brown Plant Hopper) population normally increases when rainfall in the transitional season increases compared to normal (see Figure 10). The changes in cropping patterns as part of adaptation efforts to climate change may also alter crop pests and diseases problems in the regions. Invasion of new races of pests and diseases may likely occur in a changing climate. In addition, change in temperature and rainfall may also change the domination of certain crop pest and diseases (Wiyono, 2007). Field observations in a number of districts of Java such as Indramayu, Magelang, Semarang, Boyolali, Kulonprogo, and Ciamis provide the evidence of this phenomena (see section 3.3). New initiatives to anticipate the scarcity of water due to climate change and the increase on water demand, especially in urban areas, as a result of increasing population and industrial activities should be in place. Inter basin transfer of water may be one of the potential options to anticipate to the scarcity of water in the future. In Indonesia many basins are surplus in water resources, even in the ultimate stage of development, while others face serious shortages, especially during extreme drought years. Creation of storages and inter-basin transfer of water from surplus to deficit regions could therefore be an option for achieving more equitable distribution of our water wealth and its optimal utilization. Projection of water availability for drinking water from Directorate General of Human Settlement indicates that in 2010-2015, many districts in Indonesia may face problems of clean water shortage (Figure 37).

36

No data Safe Quite Prone Prone C iti l

Figure 37. Status of clean surface water availability in 2015 per district (Drawn from data provided by Cipta Karya, 2007)

A study to assess the impact of climate change at watershed level has been conducted at the Citarum watershed. This watershed supplies about 7650 million cubic meters (MCM) per year, i.e. about 5750 MCM from the tree dams (Saguling, Cirata and Jatiluhur) and 1950 million cubic meters from other rivers (Perum Jasa Tirta, 2003). Under a changing climate, water scarcity problems in this watershed may occur more frequently. Under the present climate, most of the sub-districts will have water scarcity problems if water extraction from the watershed is limited to about 10% of the annual flow (Figure 38). The level of water deficit in these subdistricts would be more than 60 million cubic meters (MCM) per year. By increasing the level of water extraction from 10% to 20%, the status of the water balance in a number of sub-district of Sukabumi and Purwakarta would be surplus (Figure 39). However, based on historical observed inflow data (1986-2002), it was found that the chance to have minimum flow of less than 10% (of the mean) was about 10% for Saguling, 15% for Cirata and 25 % for Jatiluhur, and in most cases these conditions occurred in El-Nio years. This indicates that if minimum flow could not reach 10% of the mean flow, many sub-districts would have more severe water deficit problems.

37

2005

2010

2020

2050

2080
Scenarios: Water supply: Normal rainfall Water extraction: 10% of total discharge Water demand: Base line

Figure 38. Projection of water status by sub-district at Citarum watersheds with no change in rainfall and water extraction of 10% (Boer et al., 2005). Note: Assuming no ground water extraction.

38

2005

2010

2020

2050

2080

Scenarios: Water supply: Rainfall +20% Water extraction: 20% of total discharge Water demand: Baseline

Figure 39. Projection of water status by sub-district at Citarum watersheds with no change in rainfall and water extraction of 20% using baseline demand scenario (Boer et al., 2005). Note: Assuming no groundwater extraction.

Under a changing climate, the frequency to have this condition in the future might increase as suggested by a number of GCM models such as ECHAM and CGCM (CRU, 1999). Historical data also show significant decreasing trend in annual rainfall in this watershed. The annual rainfall in the Citarum watershed has decreased at a rate of 10 mm/year. In the early 1900s the mean annual rainfall was about 2800 mm per year and in the 1990s it decreased to about 2350 mm (Pawitan, 2002). The decrease in rainfall and length of wet season will directly reduce soil water availability. A number of studies have indicated that in tropical countries the projected depletion of soil moisture would likely caused reduction forest productivity (IPCC, 1996). In India for example teak productivity would decline from 5.40 to 5.07 m3/ha/year and moist deciduous forests could decline from 1.8 to 1.5 m3/ha/year (Achanta and Kanetkar, 1996). In Indonesia, forest productivity is between 9 and 13 m3/ha/year. With the change in rainfall, the productivity of forest in regions with decreased rainfall will have lower forest productivity by 4 m3/ha/year, while in those with increased rainfall will have higher forest productivity by about 2 m3/ha/year (Boer et al., 1999). Change in forest productivity will have implication on logging regulation for example length of concession period. To anticipate this change, policy response is required.

39

5.3. Impact of Sea Level Rise Natural changes in sea level can be very large. For example, during the last glacial era, which ended about 10,000 years ago, the ocean was 120 m lower than it is now. Global mean sea level rises can occur due to an increase in the volume of water in the oceans. During the 20th and 21st centuries this is likely to be the result of thermal expansion of sea water and the melting of and glaciers and changes in the mass of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. The process of thermal expansion is characterised by a long delay after a temperature increase, meaning that it is necessary to look several centuries ahead. The sea level change at a given locality, also termed the relative sea level change, depends on yet more factors: x regional variations, including those caused by non-uniform patterns of temperature and salinity changes in the ocean. These can cause deviations (by up to 100%) from the world mean sea level rise x vertical movements of the land surface caused, for example, by tectonics, and land subsidence due to large-scale water extraction or compaction of peatlands As an island country, Indonesia has a very long coast, i.e. about 81.000 km. In 1997, it was reported that about two million people live in coastal areas with an elevation of between 0 and 2 m asl. Also, many industries and sectors operate in these coastal areas such as oil and gas exploration, transportations, fisheries (approximately 400,000 ha ponds), settlements, agriculture and tourisms. These economic activities contribute to about 25% of the gross domestic product and absorb about 15% of employment (Dahuri dan Dutton, 2000). The increase in sea level will result in devastating impacts on socio-economic activities and sustainable development. The impact of sea level rise will be more severe when coastal erosion can not be minimized or stopped. In recent years, the number of severely eroded coasts in Indonesia has increased rapidly. There are at least five factors causing such situation. The first is the interruption of the continuous along shore sand transport by various structures built along the shorelines, massive jetties, and harbour breakwaters (Reclamation of Bali Airport, Pulau Baai harbour Breakwater). The second relates to the formation of circulating currents induced by seawalls. The third relates to the decrease of sediment supply from rivers, because many dams or diversion channels were built in the upstream regions (Krueng Aceh river mouth). The fourth cause relates to coral or sand mining, which not only reduces sediment supply from the updrift side but also disturbs the equilibrium of the beach profile (Tanjung Pasir Tangerang, west Java). The fifth is due to deforestation of mangrove forests (East Lampung, Northern Coast of Java). Now, there are more than hundred coastal sites in seventeen provinces that are facing significant erosion (Subandono et al., 2001). With a sea level rise of about 1 m, it was estimated that about 405,000 ha of coastal land including small islands will be flooded. The impacts might be severe in certain coastal areas such as the north coast of Java, the east coast of Sumatra, and the south coast of Sulawesi (Subandono, 2002). The disappearance of small islands due to sea

40

level rise will have serious implications for the Indonesian state border. Recent studies indicate that at least 8 of 92 outmost small islands that serve as a baseline for the Indonesian sea territory are very vulnerable to sea level rise (Table 4). Survey conducted from 29 Juli 7 Agustus 2004 at Nipah Island (Riau Province) by BPPT, BRKP, Pemda Riau and Universities showed that the island is almost inundated by sea water during high tide. During low tide the total area of Nipah island is about 73.6 ha, and during high tide only 1.8 ha (Hendiarti, 2007).
Table 5. List of small islands that serve as baseline for Indonesian sea territory

Province East Kalimantan Central Sulawesi North Sulawesi Papua Papua Papua Papua Riau

Island Pulau Kepala Pulau Dolangan Pulau Manterawu Pulau Fani Pulau Fanildo Pulau Brass Pulau Laag Nipah

Coastal Type Mud with mangrove Mud Mud with mangrove High wave Sandy Sandy Sandy and wetland Sandy

Border with Malaysia Malaysia Philippine Palau Palau Palau Australia Singapore

Source: Hydro-oceanography, Indonesian Navy 2003, LAPAN (2003), Hendiarti (2007).

Sea level rise in combination with water flow reduction from upstream during dry seasons will also accelerate the saline water intrusion to the inland. Coastal waters will become more saline and soil salinity will increase, even the ground water aquifers will also bear the brunt of salinity intrusion. The problem of water intrusion has been observed in a number of metro cities near the coast such as Jakarta, Surabaya and Semarang. For example in Jakarta, such problems have been occurring since the 1960s. The shallow groundwater of the coastal areas was brackish before major groundwater development took place. The brackish water occurred under the aquifer less than 100 m deep, as a result of direct contact between the aquifer and the sea bottom. The saltwater intrusion in the shallow and deep aquifer had reached to 10 15 km from the coastline in Jakarta. Overexploitation of ground water, causing land subsidence, has exacerbated the problem8. Penetration of salt water in the deeper aquifer (40 140 m) has gone up to 5 13 km inland such as in the area of the Soekarno Hatta airport, and 8 10 km in the areas of Cengkareng, Grogol and Kelapa Gading. Rate of land subsidence in Jakarta varied between locations and times. Maximum subsidence was found in the northwestern and central eastern parts of Jakarta, while minimum subsidence was found in the southern part. In general the estimated subsidence rates are around 1 to 10 cm per year. The rate of land subsidence in
8

At present about 60% of the population and about 90% of industries, hotels and business centres rely on the groundwater due to the limitations of the pipe water supply.

41

several locations of Jakarta basin usually has a positive correlation with the registered abstraction volume of groundwater in those locations (Abidin et al., 2004). Sea level rise in combination with land subsidence due to over exploitation of ground water will definitely move the coastal line to the inland, with an associated higher risk of floods . A study conducted by Pusat Pengembangan Kawasan Pesisir dan Laut, Institut Teknology Bandung (2007) showed that at a sea level rise of about 0.25, 0.57 and 1.00 cm per year the total area of north Jakarta being inundated by flood in 2050 would be about 40, 45 and 90 km2 respectively, and this will increase further if land subsidence continues (Figure 40). A similar study conducted by Dasanto and Istanto (2007) also indicated that when sea level increases by about 0.5 m and land subsidence continues, parts of six sub-districts of North Jakarta and Bekasi will be permanently inundated. In North Jakarta the sub-districts include Kosambi, Penjaringan and Cilincing, and in Bekasi they are Muaragembong, Babelan and Tarumajaya.

SLR: 0.25 cm/year no

SLR: 0.25 cm/year with

SLR: 0.57 cm/year no

SLR: 0.57 cm/year with

SLR: 1.00 cm/year no

SLR: 1.00 cm/year with

Figure 40. Area being inundated in 2050 under different sea level rise and land subsidence scenarios. Land subsidence is about 0.8 cm per year (Source: Pusat Pengembangan Kawasan Pesisir Dan Laut ITB, 2007)

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VI. KNOWLEDGE GAPS AND ADAPTATION PROGRAMS

6.1. Knowledge Gaps There is consensus in the global scientific community that some degree of climate change is inevitable, but there remain large uncertainties surrounding the likely effects of climate change on sectors. Change of climate may only contribute partly to the significant decrease of the base flow in a number of major rivers in Indonesia (see Figure 26). It is believed that the deforestation, forest degradation and overexploitation of water use in the upstream are the major factors causing such significant decrease. Some also argue that the increase in flood risk in the major city near the coastal areas caused mainly by land subsidence not the sea level rise. It is true that climate change and sea level rise are not the only factors causing such impact, however, the historical data has convince us that the climate is changing and sea level is rising (see Figure 16). The degradation of environment will exacerbate the impact of climate change and sea level rise on sectors and communities. Detail assessment of climate change on sectors needs climate models. The model simulates the likely future climates under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. There are a number of climate models being developed, but the models work at large scale and can not be used to study the impact of climate change at local scale. On the other hand the direction of change of the climate can not be always predicted, different model give different prediction (see Figure 30). Therefore, the climate change impact studies cant be relied on single climate model, but it should be based on assemble models. This approach informs us what likely future climate would be (see Figure 32 and 33) and how certain a particular impact would occur in the future. Regional climate models would be more reasonable to be used for impact studies. However, these types of models are also not yet fully developed. Emperical downscaling models (EMDs) have been used to address the problem (see Footnote 7). Nevertheless, all models and techniques need to be validated and this requires long historical climate data. At present, the level of climate data availability in Indonesia is very low, except in Java. For example rainfall network density in Java is about 12 stations per 100 km2 while outside Java are mostly less than 1 station per 100 km2. Therefore, a serious attempt will be necessary to fill in important gaps in present data sets. Many of the present and anticipated impacts of climate change and climate variability are directly or indirectly related to the water sector. To deal with these, a sound basis of hydrological knowledge is also essential. It will therefore be necessary to strengthen as soon as possible the knowledge base and data collection on hydrological (and meteorological) phenomena. Especially river run off and land use data are critical. The use of satellite data can be considered especially in difficult terrain. However ground based observations will always also be necessary. Information on the reaction of nature to climate change in Indonesia is scarce. It will

43

take a huge effort to fill in this gap. May be a concentrated action in the most vulnerable and valuable nature areas is a way to start. From this report it is clear that information on the historical impact of climate variability is still limited and studies on the implications on climate change are only available for a limited sectors. For example, the implication of climate change on the water quality are yet unknown. Effects on tourism, a serious source of income in Indonesia are also unknown. Thus many research activities are needed to fill the gaps and to increase our understanding on climate variability and climate changes and their implications on sectors. 6.2. Adaptation programs Climate change is evident in both a change in average temperature and rainfall, as well as changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as frosts, heat waves, droughts and floods (IPCC 2001). It is considered likely that continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates will result in further global warming in this century. Moreover, even if the atmospheric concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols are stabilized at 2000 levels, global temperatures are projected to continue rising (IPCC 2007). While measures to reduce the growth of greenhouse gas emissions are an important response to the threat of climate change, adaptation to climate change will also form a necessary part of the response. In this context, adaptation refers to strategies that act to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change and also to make benefit from it. Historical data shows that the Indonesian climate has already changed. The direction of change in the future may vary between regions. In Java and Bali, the pattern of change is similar to changes that occurred in the past. It is very likely that the length of the rainy season in these two islands will shorten and the depth of rainfall in this season tends to become higher than that of the current climate, while the depth of the dry season rainfall tends to decrease. In addition, the frequency of extreme climate events associated with ENSO may also increase under global warming. Figure 2 suggests that extreme regional weather and climate anomalies associated with El Nio are being exacerbated by increasingly higher temperatures. The occurrences of extreme climate events have caused serious impact in many sectors. Current capacity to anticipate to such events is still low. In the future the intensity and the frequency of these extreme climate events may increase. If the capacity to adapt to such changes will not develop from now, Indonesia may not be able to achieve sustainable development. Plans for adaptation to climate change need to be developed. Planned adaptation to the future climate will be based on current individual, community and institutional activities that, in part, have been developed as a response to current climate (Jones et al., 2004). However, current measures to adapt to current climate may not work in the future as climate variability may change in the future. For example, in Java, planting rice twice a year in sequence will not be a problem. However in the future, due to wet season shortening, keeping planting rice two times will expose the second rice yield to higher drought risk. This twice-a-year practice can only be continued in the

44

future with establishment of new irrigation facilities or inter basin water transfer. Without these measures, farmers who keep planting rice twice a year will suffer a lot from drought problems. Therefore, we need to develop a long-term plan for adaptation, in which adaptation measures are developed considering the likely change of climate in the future (see Figure 41 as example). A number of sectors have identified programs for adaptation in both the short and long-term for nine sectors (Appendix 1). The development of these programs was not based on quantitative assessment of climate risk. Therefore they may be modified when more studies on climate risk assessment become available. More broad programs are also elaborated in other government document on Strategy and National Action Plan for Addressing Climate Change (RAN MAPI).
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Figure 41. Example of long-term plan for adaptation for the agriculture sector (Source: Boer, 2007)

M ea pa sures Im ttern fo : Adju Im prove llowin st the gt c ro cro pr irr oved p m he cli ppin Pr igation irriga anage mate g f o re tion me o e cas alte vide m fficien facil nt t ity a rna o c tive re op y nd eco portu nom nity ic a f Se ctiv or t ities field up po li fun to ot cy to Ex ding, her us ban co es pan insu n vuln d th ran in Ja versio M erab e rice ce sys va, st n of r le a ic aint tem and gro by e win the ain a reas g , u Div pstre nd incr new v areas a ers a eas ify f m e fo rieties to less ood res con t co sum ver D in ptio ev n vuln elop n ew e ra whe irrig ble incr never rice p ation fa r e p pro asing ossib oducti cility In ductiv plan le to a on ce in ting ter n ll bas ity inde ow fo tre are in tr as x an r ans d fer

45

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Moji K., Tsuyuoka, R., Makunike, B. and Tanaka, H. 2002. Meteorological factors influencing the intensity of malaria outbreak in Zimbabwe Japanese Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 30:283-287Wiyono, S. 2007. Climate change and pests and diseases explosion. Paper presented in One day Seminar on Biodiversity in the middle of global warming. KEHATI Foundation, Jakarta 28 June 2007 (in Indonesian) Nastari Bogor dan Klinik Tanaman IPB. 2007. Laporan Safari Gotong Royong Sambung Keperluan untuk Petani Indonesia di 24 Kabupaten-Kota di Pulau Jawa 4 April-2 Mei 2007.. Yayasan Nastari Bogor- Klinik Tanaman IPB. Naylor, R.L., Battisti, D.S. Vimont, D.J., Falcon, W.P. and Burke, M.B. 2007. Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture. Proceeding of the National Academic of Science 114:7752-7757 Neelin, J. D., Munnich, M., Su, H., Meyerson, J. E., and Holloway, C. E. 2006. Tropical drying trends in global warming models and observations. Proceeding of National Academy of Science 103: 61106115 OFDA and CRED. 2007. EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, www.em-dat.net - Universit catholique de Louvain - Brussels Belgium". Page, S.E., Siegert, F., Rieley, J.O., Boehm, H-D.V., Jayak, A., & Limink. S. 2002. The amount of carbon released from peat and forest fires in Indonesia during 1997. Nature 420: 61-65 Pawitan, H. 2002. Flood hydrology and an integrated approach to remedy the Jakarta floods. Paper presented at the International Conference on Urban Hydrology for the 21st Century, the Humid Tropics Hydrology and Water Resources Centre for Southeast Asia and Pacific (HTC Kuala Lumpur) of the Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia in Collaboration with UNESCO and IAHSO, 14-18 October 2002. Kualalumpur, Malaysia. Peng S, Huang J, Sheehy JE, Laza RC, Visperas RM, Zhong X, Centeno GS, Khush GS, Cassman KG (2004). Proceeding of National Academy of Science of the United State of America (PNAS) 101:99719975. Quinn, W.H., Zopf, D.D., Sort, K.S., and Kuo Yang, T.R.W. 1978. Historical trends and statistics of the southern oscillation-El-Nio and Indonesian drought. Fishery Bulletin 76, p.3. Rodo, X. Pascual, M., Fuchs.G., Faruque, A.S.G. 2002. ENSO and cholera: A nonstationary link related to climate change?. Proceeding of National Academy of Science 99: 1290112906 Rosalina, U., Murdiyarso, D., Boer, R. et al. 2003. CDM eligible lands, portfolios and potential-CDM LULUCF projects in Indonesia. In Ministry of Environment. 2003. National Strategy Study on CDM in Forestry Sector. Jakarta. Saddler, GS. 2000. IMI Description of Fungi and Bacteria No. 146 sheet 1457. Salinger, M.J. 2005. Increasing climate variability and change: reducing the

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APPENDIX 1. IDENTIFIED ADAPTATION PROGRAMS IN NINE SECTORS Programs for adaptation in both the short and long-term for nine sectors are presented in this Appendix. The development of these programs was not based on quantitative assessment of climate risk. Therefore they may be modified when more studies on climate risk assessment become available. The nine sectors include the following: 1. Water resources 2. Coastal zones and Peatland 3. Coastal and small island 4. Agriculture 5. Forestry 6. Health 7. Energy 8. Infrastructure 9. Spatial Planning (this is a structuring mechanism more than a sector)

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Table 6. Plan for Adaptation to climate change in nine sectors

Problems x x x x x x x x x x x x Sea level rise Temperature rises Precipitation changes Intensified extreme events Increase of frequency and intensity of flood Increased intensity of rain Increased flood discharge peak Increased erosion rates Increased rates of sedimentation at reservoirs, canals and structures Increased length of dry periods Decrease in the number of rainy days Decrease in the quantity of river low flows x Increased number of flood events during the last 5 years x Increased number of flood victims, i.e., dead, injured, missing and displaced peoples x Increased number of public infrastructures and private properties damages due to floods x Increased s number of landslides and its associated victims and damages x Increased budgets for maintenance on water infrastructure x Continuing decrease of paddy production due to floods, currently annual lost due to floods on rice fields is about 374,500 ha or equivalent to 919,300 ton of paddy per year Integrated within water resources management: x Public awareness x Water conservation x Rotation of water distribution x Coordination demand/ supply x Cloud seedling (artificial rainfall) to fill reservoirs x Use conjunctive surface/ groundwater supply x Change operating rule x Indigenous options x Rainwater harvesting measures x Rehabilitation of reservoirs x Rehabilitations of existing irrigation systems Impacts Proposed General Adaptation Program Short term Long Term Integrated within water resources management: x Public awareness x Water conservation x Rotation of water distribution x Coordination demand/ supply x Additional reservoirs, embung/situ x Use conjunctive surface/ groundwater supply x Change operating rule x Indigenous options x Rainwater harvesting measures x Rehabilitation of reservoirs x Rehabilitations of existing irrigation system and water supply distribution systems x Rehabilitation of function of upper watershed by vegetative and hydrology restoration

Sectors/ Sub-sectors

Water Resources:

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Domestic Water

x Decreased water availability and quality of water for domestic uses x Increased t risk of water scarcity x Decrease water availability for second rice crop and for dry season crops Natural Disaster management planning: x Early warning system x Public campaign on disaster preparedness x Flood and landslides risk maps x Disaster preparedness drill x Rehabilitation of existing flood control structures x O&M of existing flood control structures

Irrigation

Construction/modification of physical infrastructure: x Canal linings x Closed conduits instead of open channels x Integrating separate reservoirs into a single system x Raising dam wall height x Increasing canal size x Removing sediment from reservoirs for more storage x Inter-basin water transfers Adaptation measures on domestic use: x Municipal and in-home reuse of water x Leak repair x Dual-supply systems (potable and non-potable) x Rainwater collection for nonpotable uses Adaptation measures on irrigation/ agriculture use: x Irrigation timing and efficiency x Drainage re-use, use of wastewater effluent

x Continuing decrease of paddy production due to droughts, currently annual lost due to droughts on rice fields is about 350,000 ha or equivalent to 700,000 tons of paddy per year x Continuing decrease of hydro power productions during the last ten years x Increased the number of coastal abrasions x Damage to properties from coastal flooding caused by sea level rise x Decrease of quantity and quality of water supply service during dry season x Increase cost of water supply production x Decrease of cropping intensity and hence production of rice fields x Reduction in crop yield caused by increased drought conditions

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High value/low water use crops x Drip, micro-spray, low energy, precision application irrigation system x Salt-tolerant crops that can use drain water Adaptation measures on industry use: x water re-use and recycling x closed cycle and/or air cooling x more efficient hydropower turbines x cooling ponds, wet towers and dry towers Adaptation measures on energy (hydropower): x reservoir re-operation x cogeneration (beneficial use of water) x additional reservoirs and hydropower stations x low head run of the river hydropower x market/price-driven transfers to other activities Adaptation measures on

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coastal: x Retreat managed retreat relocation from high risk zone x Accommodation: public awareness natural disaster management planning x Protect: - Hard options: x Revetments, breakwaters, groins x Floodgates, tidal barriers - Soft options: x Beach/wetland nourishment x Dune restoration Natural Disaster management planning: x Early warning system x Public campaign on disaster preparedness x Flood and landslides risk maps x Disaster preparedness drill x Rehabilitation of existing

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x x

flood control structures O&M of existing flood control structures Additional flood management measures

Coastal peatlands Impacts on coastal wetlands: x Increase of coastal abrasion Increase of area of coastal flooding Sea water intrusion to landshore direction on estuary and aquifer Change of characteristic of surface and ground water, e.g., increase of salinity x x

Policy and Programs: Mitigation Programs: Diversion or treatment polluted river flows before entering coastal area x

9 9 9 9 Temperature warming Precipitation change Intensified extreme events Sea level rise

Sea grass bed, coral reef

Mangrove

Review of coastal green belt administration due to change of coastal line and migration of vegetation to land-shore direction.

Swampy peatlands

Stop of conversion of forest peatlands to other uses of forestry sector. Determination of protection status on peatlands. Preparation of strategy and action plans for management peatlands on their own areas.

Development of coastal spatial planning and/or evaluation of existing coastal spatial planning by inclusion of: (a) construction of coastal protection systems and flood control, (b) preparation of emergency plan for relocation in case of the occurrence of sea level rise, (c) conservation of groundwater and increase of efficiency of surface water, (d) development early warning system for hydro and metrological disasters, and (e) protection to marine

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and coastal resources. Excavation of muds, planting more trees on river banks, no allowance to construct structure on river flood way, construction of dike along the river banks. x Retreat to safe area from the beach, development of permanen salt pans with sea water treatment practice Retreat to safe area from the beach. Increase productivity of agricultural practice on the highlands by terracering. Increase efficiency of the use of water and fertilizer. Increase of conservation of natural habitat including: (a) integrated ecosystem management, (b) avoidance of deforestation and fragmentation of habitat, and (c) avoidance of destruction of ecosystem due to pollution. x

River mouth, estuary, laguna

Salt marsh, brackish aquaculture

Agriculture lands

In agriculture sector there is need to develop the following efforts: (a) review of cropping calendar to overcome impacts of climate variability, and (b) development high yield variety that also tolerance to salinity and drought condition.

Adaptation Programs: No feasible effort or very

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difficult to be done Mangrove planting from varieties that have a wide spectrum of tolerance to change of salinity, high variation of tidal and variation of substance. Study on various variety of vegetation on peatlands that are tolerance to change of salinity. Subsequently do extension of planting for this type of vegetation. Identification of special type of fishs that are capable to adapt changing environment to be introduced into estuary, river mouth and laguna areas.

Diversification of type of aquaculture biota that tolerance to changing environment Diversification of type of plants for agricultural commodity or for plantation that are tolerance to changing environment

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Sector/ Problems 9 9 9 9 Temperature warming Precipitation change Intensified extreme events Sea level rise (SLR) Impacts

sub sector sea-level rise and an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones would displace tens of millions of people in low-lying coastal areas and small islands; increased intensity of rainfall would increase flood; increase energy demand, decrease tourism attraction, and influence transportation exacerbate threats to biodiversity due to land-use and land-cover change and population pressure ecological security at risk, including mangroves and coral reefs adaptive capacity of human systems is generally low in small island community, and vulnerability high; The projected sea-level rise of 5 mm/yr for the next 100 years would cause enhanced coastal erosion, loss of land and property, dislocation of people, increased risk from storm surges, reduced resilience of coastal ecosystems, saltwater intrusion into freshwater resources, and high resource costs to respond to and adapt to these changes

Coastal & Small Islands

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Problems x Drought x Limit of irrigation water x Reduce of the planting areas x Lost of crops yield x Felt of harvesting x Reduce of farmers income

Sectors/Sub -Sectors Agriculture /Food crops

Impacts

x Flood/standing water

x Increase of humidity during

x Physical damages of crops growth x Lost of crops yield x Felt of harvesting x Reduce of farmers income x Pest and diseases

Proposed General Adaptation Program Short term Long term x Early warning system to x Water conservation drought hazard x Water harvesting x Integrated irrigation water x Controlled groundwater management for food crops exploitation x Efficient of water uses x Prioritize of water uses x Introducing crops tolerance varieties to drought x Introducing the early mature crops varieties x Crops calendar x Rainfed rice development x Farmers capacity in understanding drought behavior x Early warning system to x Flood mitigation flood hazard x Drainage improvement x Integrated drainage water x Raise bed system management for farming x Introducing crops system tolerance to deep water x Crops calendar x Crops environment x Integrated crops pest and

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La-Nia

outbreaks

diseases control

x Increase of temperature

improvement x Pest and diseases control x Introducing the crops tolerance varieties to pest and diseases x Jointly planting time x Breeding of tolerance crops varieties to high temperature

Agriculture / Perennial, trees, and estate crops

x Drought

x Increase of transpiration and respiration x Crops early mature with low yield x Limit of irrigation water x Crops stunt x Crops fire x Lost of crops yield x Reduce of farmers income

x Integrated irrigation water management for perennial crops

x Flood/standing water

x Physical damages of crops growth x Lost of crops yield x Reduce of farmers income

x Water conservation x Water harvesting x Controlled groundwater exploitation x Efficient of water uses x Prioritize of water uses x Crops fire control x Farmers capacity in understanding flood behavior x Flood mitigation x Drainage improvement x Crops tolerance to deep water

x Integrated drainage water management for perennial crops

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x Increase of humidity during La-Nia

x Pest and diseases outbreaks

x Integrated crops pest and diseases control

Forestry -

9 9 9 9 Sea level rise Temperature warming Precipitation change Intensified extreme change - Increase of forest and wild land fires event - Shifting of plantation periods Increase of land degraded Decrease of peat land forest Decrease of mangrove forest Increase of endangered species Increase of frequency and intensity flash flood and landslide Increase the rate of sedimentation Increase the budget Wood shortages

x Crops environment improvement x Pest and diseases control x Introducing the crops tolerance varieties to pest and diseases - Policy reviews - Early warning system - Public awareness - Speed up rehabilitation of degraded land in and around the forest - Mangrove rehabilitation Law enforcement - Preserve of endangered species - Review critical watershed class maps - Flood and landslides mapping - Community development - Provide hotspot information - Improving spatial planning data

Appropriate policies Public awareness Integrated watershed management Land and Forest Rehabilitation Forest fire management Staffs capacity building Community empowerment Mangrove and peat land conservation Clear land status Local knowledge options Law enforcement R&D

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Forest fire brigade R&D 1. Increase of vector density Vector borne diseases ( Malaria, DHF, Filariasisi, etc )

Health

Integrated Vector Management (IVM) - Capacity Building - Health Promotion - Clinical Laboratory Improvement

2. Lack of clean water Water Borne diseases (Diarrhea, Cholera, typhus, etc )

- Capacity Building - Health Promotion - Environmental Laboratory improvement - Regional Center Logistic preparation - Environmental health Lab. Improvement

3. Lack of food Malnutrition

- Diseases surveillance - Case detection (active and passive) - case holding - Case management - Vector control program (env. Manipulation & modification ) - Diseases surveillance - Case detection (active and passive) - Case holding - Case management - Water Quality Control (Physical, chemist and microbiologist) - Water Quality improvement (Caporization, Disinfection and coagulation ) - Addition food Supply

- Capacity Building - Health promotion - Healthy agriculture and veterinary

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- Food surveillance - Revitalized nutrition food into integrated health post - Village Awareness Program 9 9 9 9 Temperature warming Precipitation change Intensified extreme events Sea level rise

Energy

Infrastruct ure

9 9 9 9 Temperature warming Precipitation change Intensified extreme events Sea level rise

x Decrease of water availability for hydro power especially during dry season x High fluctuation of energy generation between rainy and dry seasons x Decrease of contribution of hydro-power on total energy generation What is at risks from climate change: o Population o Natural resources o Infrastructure and property Urban area: o Insufficient capacity of

Adaptation measures on energy (hydropower): x reservoir re-operation x cogeneration (beneficial use of water) x additional reservoirs and hydropower stations x low head run of the river hydropower x market/price-driven transfers to other activities Spatial Planning Policy : o Zoning regulation implementation o Promotion of green open space in the urban areas Adaptation measures on coastal:

x Adjusting current operation of reservoir x Change from single reservoir operation to multiple reservoir operation for multireservoir site river such as Citarum and Brantas x Removal of reservoir sedimentation to increase storage General potential adaptive responses: x Technological (e.g., sea defenses) x Behavioural (e.g., altered food and recreational choices) x Managerial (e.g., altered farm practices)

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water distribution structure due to increase of water demand due to increase of temperature o Insufficient capacity of drainage system due to increase intensity of rainfall o Sea water intrusion that may cause damage to structures o It creates socio-economic problems Coastal area: o Beach and structure abrasion o Sea water inundations o Damage to properties from coastal flooding o Threat from increasingly high sea tidal General Adaptation Policy: x To carry out study and inventory on vulnerability of infrastructures to impact of climate change x To make analysis of potential intervention to reduce impacts of climate change Spatial planning policy: o Zoning regulation implementation o Promotion of green open space in the urban areas Policy on development: o Increase stability of structure

x Policy (e.g., planning regulations)

x Retreat managed retreat relocation from high risk zone x Accommodation: public awareness natural disaster management planning x Protect: - Hard options: x Revetments, breakwaters, groins x Floodgates, tidal barriers - Soft options: x Beach/wetland nourishment x Dune restoration

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Spatial Planning

9 9 9 9 Temperature warming Precipitation change Intensified extreme events Sea level rise What is at risks from climate change: o Population o Natural resources o Infrastructure and property Urban area: o Heat urban island o Aridity and forest fire Coastal area: o Beach and structure abrasion o Sea water inundations o Damage to properties from coastal flooding

o Improve drainage systems o Increase stability of road structure Move new construction to safer areas from coastal flooding General potential adaptive responses: x Technological (e.g., sea defenses) x Behavioural (e.g., altered food and recreational choices) x Managerial (e.g., altered farm practices) x Policy (e.g., planning regulations) Spatial planning policy: o Zoning regulation implementation o Promotion of green open space in the urban areas

Spatial Planning Policy : o Zoning regulation implementation o Promotion of green open space in the urban areas Adaptation measures on coastal: x Retreat managed retreat relocation from high risk zone x Accommodation: public awareness natural disaster management planning x Protect: - Hard options:

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Policy on development: o Increase stability of structure o Improve drainage systems o Increase stability of road structure -

Revetments, breakwaters, groins x Floodgates, tidal barriers Soft options: x Beach/wetland nurishment x Dune restoration

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