Año Mes t Yt At Tt

-2
-1
0
2014 1 1 16881051 16881051.0000 0
2014 2 2 15809570 16570321.5100 -105648.0266
2014 3 3 15421220 16162071.9732 -208532.5401
2014 4 4 14114016 15420077.6375 -389909.5506
2015 1 5 16715025 15518776.5917 -223782.6589
2015 2 6 15642718 15491531.5016 -156959.8855
2015 3 7 15034827 15339477.9758 -155291.7232
2015 4 8 14008505 15004212.7918 -216482.6999
2016 1 9 15847235 14940916.3370 -164399.3766
2016 2 10 14826415 14821171.4315 -149216.8564
2016 3 11 14233494 14630254.1162 -163395.0124
2016 4 12 13223097 14311506.1347 -216215.0219
2017 1 13 15108796 14195017.1990 -182308.1526
2017 2 14 14198304 14081718.9626 -158844.7811
2017 3 15 13874504 14005081.9419 -130894.1426
2017 4 16 12617878 13752460.4948 -172281.4261
2018 1 17 15040832 13778434.6963 -104874.5127
2018 2 18 14229716 13827823.8638 -52424.8614
2018 3 19 14116833 13945396.7992 5374.3895
2018 4 20 13255515 14044374.6958 37199.5819
2019 1 21 15968128 14320918.3952 118576.5818
2019 2 22 14901985 14513882.1125 143868.2079
2019 3 23 14478579 14621983.1034 131707.3541
2019 4 24 13168354 14557255.0701 64919.3224
2020 1 25 15365096 14466278.9556 11914.8738
2020 2 26 14273087 14338578.9307 -35554.1917
2020 3 27 13426197 14074322.2085 -113313.0521
2020 4 28 12518651 13851610.2236 -150508.6893
2021 1 29 14271387 13567158.0613 -196049.4701
2021 2 30 12968268 13221468.5152 -246927.0959
2021 3 31 12388157 12894008.8594 -274308.1663
2021 4 32 11480693 12604373.8525 -279519.2921
2022 1 33 12747281 12217709.3030 -315948.6796
2022 2 34 11882519 11909242.8659 -313404.7171
EMC
St Yt´ Error^2 α y
1 0.29 0.45
1
1
1
0.9793 16881051.0000 1148071533361.0000
0.9794 16464673.4834 1088795172019.5900
0.9619 15953539.4332 3383846461110.7400
1.0347 15030168.0870 2838742817401.3900
0.9930 14979003.6622 440516722246.7520
0.9797 15018257.5045 274548181.8058
0.9492 14605449.3854 356342599311.2740
1.0464 15300683.5013 298718540706.3320
0.9963 14673507.4909 23380706346.4793
0.9766 14374372.1851 19846663051.0982
0.9378 13731569.5217 258544305310.7210
1.0545 14748965.2454 129478171943.7140
1.0017 13961213.2777 56212010601.9972
0.9830 13597650.6400 76647782948.2800
0.9287 13011528.4517 154960678084.4290
1.0712 14319951.0285 519669375021.1770
1.0140 13696865.6214 283929525985.5980
0.9962 13540624.3191 332016443977.3370
0.9355 12955765.1500 89849972567.1164
1.0909 15084048.2123 781597071066.9070
1.0197 14641882.3680 67653379197.8921
0.9935 14601440.4208 15094928713.2657
0.9216 13802025.0613 401539013970.8840
1.0780 15951539.3221 343915770037.1700
1.0088 14764022.0816 241017254331.2490
0.9757 14209679.6224 613845019552.0380
0.9136 12866309.0213 120866099776.3720
1.0662 14769269.7688 247887251432.2540
0.9962 13488810.4581 270964450671.6100
0.9690 12659104.0705 73412315029.6009
0.9123 11528976.2317 2331270462.8681
1.0559 13141219.8685 155187832151.0190
0.9969 11856815.5963 660664961.7772
449570192470.6590
β L p
0.34 4 1
2
3
4
Año Mes t Yt At Tt
-2
-1
0
2014 1 1 16881051 16881051.0000 0
2014 2 2 15809570 16369278.0268 -33112.8142
2014 3 3 15421220 15899158.6472 -61388.0807
2014 4 4 14114016 15014451.2547 -114658.6143
2015 1 5 16715025 15766804.6189 -58561.0710
2015 2 6 15642718 15941431.8238 -43473.2870
2015 3 7 15034827 15708235.6408 -55748.7672
2015 4 8 14008505 15294085.1646 -78938.1301
2016 1 9 15847235 15087705.8618 -87183.8486
2016 2 10 14826415 15052604.1139 -83814.0245
2016 3 11 14233494 14922078.2193 -86836.3831
2016 4 12 13223097 14644819.4434 -99157.1223
2017 1 13 15108796 14468755.6249 -104133.1512
2017 2 14 14198304 14388644.3367 -102578.8849
2017 3 15 13874504 14410082.7545 -94554.6982
2017 4 16 12617878 14152646.3017 -105093.4987
2018 1 17 15040832 14217641.8820 -94088.3688
2018 2 18 14229716 14265374.9608 -84912.2155
2018 3 19 14116833 14410354.8497 -70037.7010
2018 4 20 13255515 14592270.4881 -53735.7770
2019 1 21 15968128 14803940.8323 -36563.4290
2019 2 22 14901985 14849514.3854 -31248.9893
2019 3 23 14478579 14799820.3892 -32442.4210
2019 4 24 13168354 14637924.8678 -40818.3155
2020 1 25 15365096 14428882.3287 -51702.7853
2020 2 26 14273087 14303461.8051 -56472.4818
2020 3 27 13426197 13997234.7252 -72632.1425
2020 4 28 12518651 13920351.5199 -72907.1954
2021 1 29 14271387 13634589.1757 -86679.3822
2021 2 30 12968268 13284232.8219 -103739.8505
2021 3 31 12388157 13053694.5106 -111943.9841
2021 4 32 11480693 12857889.6639 -117369.9627
2022 1 33 12747281 12472066.4179 -134739.4686
2022 2 34 11882519 12258363.1000 -139848.5998
EMC
St Yt´ Error α y
1 0.4776 0.9999
1
1
1
0.9658 16881051.0000 1148071533361.0000
0.9699 16336165.2127 837124742161.8890
0.9400 15837770.5665 2971329805650.6100
1.0601 14899792.6404 3295068519183.1900
0.9813 15171191.7131 222337039228.1230
0.9571 15420103.7559 148438178606.7470
0.9159 14713881.7017 497556291350.9720
1.0503 16130099.0579 80012075240.6641
0.9850 14719415.9734 11448791687.1184
0.9539 14327100.4966 8762176210.5248
0.9029 13588266.5639 133348810400.5820
1.0442 15277918.7288 28602497391.3516
0.9868 14148766.0349 2454009981.9537
0.9628 13626834.9326 61339966951.7325
0.8916 12925791.9430 94810996266.5345
1.0579 14668969.4127 138281783797.9400
0.9975 13936717.3933 85848183536.4822
0.9796 13653405.5337 214765016507.8200
0.9084 12785213.3844 221183609675.3530
1.0786 15380284.4045 345560092730.8600
1.0035 14730447.7500 29425028133.7245
0.9783 14516409.9988 1431184470.2472
0.8996 13414556.5309 60615686232.9328
1.0649 15744997.9206 144325469253.1910
0.9979 14427972.4919 23989515596.3496
0.9592 13937749.4563 261685915588.8620
0.8993 12526657.7645 64108277.4678
1.0467 14745950.6117 225210621505.0400
0.9762 13519147.1405 303467827484.4610
0.9490 12642800.5869 64843356367.2199
0.8929 11638589.9703 24931453244.7168
1.0221 13335583.5463 346099885949.8010
0.9693 12043910.9619 26047365355.8074
365408531435.7960
β L p
0.0647 4 1
2
3
4
Año Mes t Yt At Tt
-2
-1
0
2014 1 1 16881051 16881051.0000 0
2014 2 2 15809570 16369278.0268 -33112.8142
2014 3 3 15421220 15899158.6472 -61388.0807
2014 4 4 14114016 15014451.2547 -114658.6143
2015 1 5 16715025 15766804.6189 -58561.0710
2015 2 6 15642718 15941431.8238 -43473.2870
2015 3 7 15034827 15708235.6408 -55748.7672
2015 4 8 14008505 15294085.1646 -78938.1301
2016 1 9 15847235 15087705.8618 -87183.8486
2016 2 10 14826415 15052604.1139 -83814.0245
2016 3 11 14233494 14922078.2193 -86836.3831
2016 4 12 13223097 14644819.4434 -99157.1223
2017 1 13 15108796 14468755.6249 -104133.1512
2017 2 14 14198304 14388644.3367 -102578.8849
2017 3 15 13874504 14410082.7545 -94554.6982
2017 4 16 12617878 14152646.3017 -105093.4987
2018 1 17 15040832 14217641.8820 -94088.3688
2018 2 18 14229716 14265374.9608 -84912.2155
2018 3 19 14116833 14410354.8497 -70037.7010
2018 4 20 13255515 14592270.4881 -53735.7770
2019 1 21 15968128 14803940.8323 -36563.4290
2019 2 22 14901985 14849514.3854 -31248.9893
2019 3 23 14478579 14799820.3892 -32442.4210
2019 4 24 13168354 14637924.8678 -40818.3155
2020 1 25 15365096 14428882.3287 -51702.7853
2020 2 26 14273087 14303461.8051 -56472.4818
2020 3 27 13426197 13997234.7252 -72632.1425
2020 4 28 12518651 13920351.5199 -72907.1954
2021 1 29 14271387 13634589.1757 -86679.3822
2021 2 30 12968268 13284232.8219 -103739.8505
2021 3 31 12388157 13053694.5106 -111943.9841
2021 4 32 11480693 12857889.6639 -117369.9627
2022 1 33 12747281 12472066.4179 -134739.4686
2022 2 34 11882519 12258363.1000 -139848.5998
EMC
St Yt´ (optimizado) Error Yt´ α
1 0.4776
1
1
1
0.9658 16881051.0000 1148071533361.0000 16881051.0000
0.9699 16336165.2127 837124742161.8890 16464673.4834
0.9400 15837770.5665 2971329805650.6100 15953539.4332
1.0601 14899792.6404 3295068519183.1900 15030168.0870
0.9813 15171191.7131 222337039228.1230 14979003.6622 18000000
0.9571 15420103.7559 148438178606.7470 15018257.5045
16000000
0.9159 14713881.7017 497556291350.9720 14605449.3854
1.0503 16130099.0579 80012075240.6641 15300683.5013
14000000
0.9850 14719415.9734 11448791687.1184 14673507.4909
0.9539 14327100.4966 8762176210.5248 14374372.1851 12000000
0.9029 13588266.5639 133348810400.5820 13731569.5217
1.0442 15277918.7288 28602497391.3516 14748965.2454 10000000
0.9868 14148766.0349 2454009981.9537 13961213.2777
0.9628 13626834.9326 61339966951.7325 13597650.6400 8000000

0.8916 12925791.9430 94810996266.5345 13011528.4517

6000000
1.0579 14668969.4127 138281783797.9400 14319951.0285
0.9975 13936717.3933 85848183536.4822 13696865.6214
4000000
0.9796 13653405.5337 214765016507.8200 13540624.3191
0.9084 12785213.3844 221183609675.3530 12955765.1500 2000000
1.0786 15380284.4045 345560092730.8600 15084048.2123
1.0035 14730447.7500 29425028133.7245 14641882.3680 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.9783 14516409.9988 1431184470.2472 14601440.4208
0.8996 13414556.5309 60615686232.9328 13802025.0613
1.0649 15744997.9206 144325469253.1910 15951539.3221
0.9979 14427972.4919 23989515596.3496 14764022.0816
0.9592 13937749.4563 261685915588.8620 14209679.6224
0.8993 12526657.7645 64108277.4678 12866309.0213
1.0467 14745950.6117 225210621505.0400 14769269.7688
0.9762 13519147.1405 303467827484.4610 13488810.4581
0.9490 12642800.5869 64843356367.2199 12659104.0705
0.8929 11638589.9703 24931453244.7168 11528976.2317
1.0221 13335583.5463 346099885949.8010 13141219.8685
0.9693 12043910.9619 26047365355.8074 11856815.5963
365408531435.7960
 y β L p
0.9999 0.0647 4 1
2
3
4

Chart Title

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

Yt Yt´(O) Yt´
Año Mes t Yt Yt-1 Yt-2
2014 1 1 16881051
2014 2 2 15809570 16881051
2014 3 3 15421220 15809570 16881051
2014 4 4 14114016 15421220 15809570
2015 1 5 16715025 14114016 15421220
2015 2 6 15642718 16715025 14114016
2015 3 7 15034827 15642718 16715025
2015 4 8 14008505 15034827 15642718
2016 1 9 15847235 14008505 15034827
2016 2 10 14826415 15847235 14008505
2016 3 11 14233494 14826415 15847235
2016 4 12 13223097 14233494 14826415
2017 1 13 15108796 13223097 14233494
2017 2 14 14198304 15108796 13223097
2017 3 15 13874504 14198304 15108796
2017 4 16 12617878 13874504 14198304
2018 1 17 15040832 12617878 13874504
2018 2 18 14229716 15040832 12617878
2018 3 19 14116833 14229716 15040832
2018 4 20 13255515 14116833 14229716
2019 1 21 15968128 13255515 14116833
2019 2 22 14901985 15968128 13255515
2019 3 23 14478579 14901985 15968128
2019 4 24 13168354 14478579 14901985
2020 1 25 15365096 13168354 14478579
2020 2 26 14273087 15365096 13168354
2020 3 27 13426197 14273087 15365096
2020 4 28 12518651 13426197 14273087
2021 1 29 14271387 12518651 13426197
2021 2 30 12968268 14271387 12518651
2021 3 31 12388157 12968268 14271387
2021 4 32 11480693 12388157 12968268
2022 1 33 12747281 11480693 12388157
2022 2 34 11882519 12747281 11480693
Yt-3 Yt-4 Yt´ ERROR^2

Resumen
16881051
15809570 16881051 ### 123649103804.14 Estadísticas de la regresión
15421220 15809570 ### 3000170810.07 Coeficiente de 0.9046592
14114016 15421220 ### 120707907534.08 Coeficiente de 0.81840828
16715025 14114016 ### 8387719395.44 R^2 ajustado 0.7893536
15642718 16715025 ### 90851866931.17 Error típico 583597.993
15034827 15642718 ### 296259014958.95 Observaciones 30
14008505 15034827 ### 319854460697.90
15847235 14008505 ### 272541389258.22 ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
14826415 15847235 ### 52825354.65 Grados de libertad
14233494 14826415 ### 38586470551.64 Regresión 4
13223097 14233494 ### 178145745.23 Residuos 25
15108796 13223097 ### 69527463112.52 Total 29
14198304 15108796 ### 571349577716.86
13874504 14198304 ### 239040617368.73 Coeficientes
12617878 13874504 ### 365801478344.60 Intercepción -3501934.68
15040832 12617878 ### 765300467476.50 Variable X 1 0.17267137
14229716 15040832 ### 2583485140394.62 Variable X 2 0.10495457
14116833 14229716 ### 802539319070.68 Variable X 3 0.04171874
13255515 14116833 ### 259154785557.62 Variable X 4 0.89746502
15968128 13255515 ### 1908827955.89
14901985 15968128 ### 14668051079.08
14478579 14901985 ### 56742862456.02
13168354 14478579 ### 479478719315.00
15365096 13168354 ### 64978714414.93 EMC
14273087 15365096 ### 33314613793.67
13426197 14273087 ### 459232666806.43
12518651 13426197 ### 175400613908.51
14271387 12518651 ### 121080933476.45
12968268 14271387 ### 146272041169.34
12388157 12968268 ### 31319461441.01
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
38374395865406 9.5936E+12 28.1678683 6.15296E-09
8514665429900 3.4059E+11
46889061295306

Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%
1977513.0503092 -1.77087816 0.0887745 -7574699 570829.685 -7574699 570829.685
0.0982047559514 1.75827906 0.09093833 -0.02958511 0.37492785 -0.02958511 0.37492785
0.1006780765177 1.04247688 0.30716735 -0.10239581 0.31230495 -0.10239581 0.31230495
0.1062079623928 0.39280234 0.69779484 -0.17702066 0.26045813 -0.17702066 0.26045813
0.1018090682735 8.81517761 3.83167E-09 0.68778532 1.10714472 0.68778532 1.10714472

283822180996.67
t Yt At Tt Yt´ |et|
1 15552 15552 0.0000
2 16008 16007.9544 37.3559 15552.0000 207936.0000
3 12674 12674.3371 -238.8249 16045.3103 11365733.4151
4 11686 11686.075 -300.2256 12435.5122 561768.5628
5 9895 9895.14908 -422.3574 11385.8493 2222631.6475
6 10347 10346.9126 -350.7414 9472.7917 764240.1754
7 9866 9866.01302 -361.4052 9996.1711 16944.5238
8 8628 8628.08766 -433.2177 9504.6078 768441.2901
9 8092 8092.01029 -441.6449 8194.8700 10582.2271
10 9010 9009.86404 -330.2624 7650.3654 1848606.3080
11 7712 7712.09676 -409.5292 8679.6017 936252.9532
12 5944 5944.13586 -520.8243 7302.5676 1845705.7967
13 6243 6242.91803 -453.6747 5423.3115 671889.1687
14 6500 6499.92892 -395.4488 5789.2434 505175.0137
15 5243 5243.08615 -466.0221 6104.4801 742147.9373
16 4229 4229.05481 -510.9200 4777.0641 300374.2194
17 4112 4111.96061 -478.6542 3718.1348 155129.7884
18 4699 4698.89343 -391.3516 3633.3064 1135702.8141
19 4276 4276.00315 -393.9355 4307.5418 994.8874
20 4007 4006.98751 -383.7010 3882.0676 15608.0988
21 3360 3360.02633 -405.2696 3623.2866 69319.8081
22 3755 3754.91998 -339.7130 2954.7567 640389.3459
23 3603 3602.98122 -324.3288 3415.2070 35266.2060
24 2791 2791.04877 -364.2777 3278.6524 237804.8953
25 1718 1718.07088 -422.3409 2426.7710 502356.3871
SCE 25561001.4699
α β p
0.9999 0.0819 1
2
3
t Yt At At´ at bt
1 15552 15552.0000 15552.0000 15552.0000 0.0000
2 16008 15761.9197 15648.6366 15875.2028 96.6366
3 12674 14340.3953 15046.3875 13634.4032 -602.2491
4 11686 13118.4440 14158.8584 12078.0296 -887.5291
5 9895 11634.5310 12996.7838 10272.2782 -1162.0745
6 10347 11041.8159 12096.8140 9986.8178 -899.9698
7 9866 10500.5288 11361.9638 9639.0938 -734.8501
8 8628 9638.5099 10568.5715 8708.4482 -793.3923
9 8092 8926.5738 9812.6776 8040.4700 -755.8939
10 9010 8964.9791 9422.4394 8507.5187 -390.2382
11 7712 8388.1699 8946.3133 7830.0266 -476.1261
12 5944 7262.9959 8171.3978 6354.5939 -774.9155
13 6243 6793.4406 7537.0550 6049.8262 -634.3428
14 6500 6658.3552 7132.5454 6184.1650 -404.5096
15 5243 6006.7962 6614.3065 5399.2858 -518.2388
16 4229 5188.3874 5957.8844 4418.8904 -656.4221
17 4112 4692.8723 5375.5359 4010.2087 -582.3486
18 4699 4695.6932 5062.5702 4328.8162 -312.9657
19 4276 4502.4873 4804.7359 4200.2388 -257.8342
20 4007 4274.3897 4560.5909 3988.1884 -244.1450
21 3360 3853.4502 4235.0586 3471.8419 -325.5324
22 3755 3808.1286 4038.5213 3577.7360 -196.5373
23 3603 3713.6976 3888.9887 3538.4066 -149.5326
24 2791 3288.9336 3612.7532 2965.1140 -276.2354
25 1718 2565.7541 3130.7670 2000.7411 -481.9862
SCE
Yt´ |et|^2 α p
0.4604 1
15552 207936.0000 2
15971.8394 10875744.4212 3
13032.1541 1812130.8316
11190.5005 1678321.4939
9110.20362 1529665.2811
9086.84793 607077.9421
8904.24368 76310.5706
7915.05588 31309.2206
7284.57606 2977087.7881
8117.28054 164252.3141
7353.90045 1987819.2755
5579.67849 439995.4293
5415.48338 1176176.3016
5779.65536 287998.9743
4881.04698 425165.2592
3762.46826 122172.4342
3427.86013 1615796.5588
4015.85049 67677.7685
3942.40454 4172.5740
3744.04338 147489.3193
3146.30951 370504.1165
3381.1987 49195.8158
3388.87396 357453.2717
2688.87856 942605.1846
27954058.1466
3.3) El modelo que mejor se ajusta a la serie dada es el modelo de Holt ya que el error es menor
t Yt At Tt Yt´ |et|
1 15552 15552 0.0000
2 16008 16007.9544 37.3559 15552.0000 207936.0000
3 12674 12674.3371 -238.8249 16045.3103 11365733.4151
4 11686 11686.075 -300.2256 12435.5122 561768.5628
5 9895 9895.14908 -422.3574 11385.8493 2222631.6475
6 10347 10346.9126 -350.7414 9472.7917 764240.1754
7 9866 9866.01302 -361.4052 9996.1711 16944.5238
8 8628 8628.08766 -433.2177 9504.6078 768441.2901
9 8092 8092.01029 -441.6449 8194.8700 10582.2271
10 9010 9009.86404 -330.2624 7650.3654 1848606.3080
11 7712 7712.09676 -409.5292 8679.6017 936252.9532
12 5944 5944.13586 -520.8243 7302.5676 1845705.7967
13 6243 6242.91803 -453.6747 5423.3115 671889.1687
14 6500 6499.92892 -395.4488 5789.2434 505175.0137
15 5243 5243.08615 -466.0221 6104.4801 742147.9373
16 4229 4229.05481 -510.9200 4777.0641 300374.2194
17 4112 4111.96061 -478.6542 3718.1348 155129.7884
18 4699 4698.89343 -391.3516 3633.3064 1135702.8141
19 4276 4276.00315 -393.9355 4307.5418 994.8874
20 4007 4006.98751 -383.7010 3882.0676 15608.0988
21 3360 3360.02633 -405.2696 3623.2866 69319.8081
22 3755 3754.91998 -339.7130 2954.7567 640389.3459
23 3603 3602.98122 -324.3288 3415.2070 35266.2060
24 2791 2791.04877 -364.2777 3278.6524 237804.8953
25 1718 1718.07088 -422.3409 2426.7710 502356.3871
26 Pronóstico p = 1 1295.7300
27 Pronóstico p = 2 873.3891
28 Pronóstico p = 3 451.0482
29 Pronóstico p = 4 28.7073
SCE 25561001.4699
 α β p
0.9999 0.0819 1
2
3
4

Representación de estimación
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Yt Yt´
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