The Green Economy

Global Public Opinion Briefing

International Institute for

The Green Economy Coalition has been created amid global economic uncertainty and widespread pessimism. Economic failures have shifted media and political attention away from environmental issues yet polls find that both experts and ordinary people around the world see the current crisis as an opportunity to rethink how economies can better serve the needs of people and the planet.
This briefing describes where we are now: the public opinion landscape where support for a green economy is taking root. Commissioned by IIED for the Green Economy Coalition meeting held at IUCN in Gland, Switzerland, in October 2009, it presents a selection of findings from GlobeScans regular surveys on the environment, the economy and global issues, conducted among the general public and opinion formers across the world. Except where indicated, fieldwork for these studies was conducted face to face or by telephone among representative samples of 1,000 adults in each country by GlobeScan and its international partners across the world.

Sam Mountford, GlobeScan Development Prepared for IIED as a contribution to the Green Economy Coalition, 2010 For further information on the Green Economy Coalition please contact: sally.jeanrenaud@iied.org tom.bigg@iied.org or steve.bass@iied.org IIED, 4 Endsleigh Street, London WC1H 0DD, UK

Environment and

MAY 2010

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Since the start of the last decade, optimism about global trends has remained a minority view across GlobeScans key tracking countries. Just a third of respondents say the world is heading in the right direction. The terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, the controversial presidency of George W. Bush in the United States, rising concern about environmental threats and about the social and economic impacts of increased globalisation: all these are likely to be factors behind the sharp drop in optimism recorded in the first few years of the 21st century. Amid the widespread gloom, a critique of the current system by the Green Economy Coalition could resonate with many if the coalition offers an optimistic and engaging message. Advocates for change must win widespread trust. Public trust in a number of global institutions had been in decline for some years, though trust in government has improved since 2007, and now more people say that they trust their government than that they do not. NGOs remain more trusted than other institutions and thus are well placed to deliver messages that will be believed but are still less trusted than they were in the 1990s. Our other research suggests NGOs are often more valued for the aid and assistance they may provide than for the campaigning they do. Trust in the media continues its long-term decline, particularly in the United States. While we know trust levels vary greatly depending on the media source in question, this overall ebbing of faith in the media presents a real challenge for a body like the Green Economy Coalition in communicating its message to a sceptical public.
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Most do not agree that the world is going in the right direction
World is going in the right direction

Asked of half of sample: G8t. Please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with each of the following statements? at) The world is going in the right direction. Graph shows agree responses, 10 tracking countries (Canada, France, Germany, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Russia, Turkey, UK and US), 2001-2009.

Trust in NGOs relatively high, but low trust in global companies and media
Trust in institutions

G9t. Please tell me how much you trust each of the following institutions to operate in the best interest of our society. Would you say you have a lot of trust, some trust, not much trust, or no trust at all in? Graph shows net trust (a lot of trust and some trust minus not much trust and no trust at all), average of 12 tracking countries (Brazil, Canada, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Mexico, Nigeria, Russia, Turkey, UK and US), 2001-2009. *Not asked in Nigeria in 2004.

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Sharply heightened economic concerns in response to crisis

Seriousness of economic problems and uncertainty

Economic concern spiked sharply after the global economic crisis hit in 2008. Our analysis suggests this is likely to be driven as much by concerns over rising prices of food, fuel and other commodities as by the direct impacts of the credit crunch. Any efforts to promote a green economy would be wise to include a strategic focus on mainstream economic problems, even where their overriding concerns might be environmental or social. Despite the global spread of the economic crisis, citizens appear ready to point the finger of blame at their own national governments. Although in some cases this may be a specific critique of government policies during the boom years, there is considerable confusion about who should be held accountable for tackling global challenges. Similar confusion may affect the debate around dealing with environmental problems. Differences between countries attitudes are often marked. National governments are most commonly ascribed blame by respondents in the United States and Canada, along with many other countries, whereas respondents in India, China and other developing countries are most likely to blame the United States for the crisis. In the United Kingdom and Germany, banks and other financial institutions are more likely to be blamed and in the United Kingdom, more also feel able to blame capitalism itself.

Asked of half of sample: G6t. I am going to read you a list of possible problems in our society. For each, please tell me how serious a problem you think it is. What about economic problems and uncertainty, is it a very serious problem, somewhat serious, not very serious, or not at all serious problem? Graph shows very serious responses, 11 tracking countries (Canada, China, France, Germany, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Russia, Turkey, UK and US), 20012009.

with national governments shouldering much of the blame

Who is to blame for the global financial crisis

Asked of half of sample (not asked in Brazil and Egypt): G7. Who or what would you say is most to blame for the current global financial crisis? Anything else? Graph shows percentage of respondents who mentioned items unprompted, average of 21 countries, 2009.

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Given the enormous media attention focused on the economic crisis in the last year, it is not surprising that climate change and environmental issues are less likely to emerge unprompted as top-of-mind global problems. They appear to pose a less immediate threat to most peoples well-being. Nonetheless, they are mentioned by one in seven a significant proportion and in the United Kingdom, climate change is the issue most commonly cited when respondents are asked to identify the most important problem facing the world today. We expect concern about climate change and the environment to rise in the coming years.

Environment behind the economy as a top-of-mind global concern

Most important problem facing the world today

Asked of half of sample (not asked in Brazil and Egypt): G7. Who or what would you say is most to blame for the current global financial crisis? Anything else? Graph shows percentage of respondents who mentioned items unprompted, average of 21 countries, 2009.

Even though the environment is less commonly mentioned unprompted, when people are reminded of a range of global problems and asked to rate the seriousness of each one, concerns about the environment and poverty remain highest. Nearly two-thirds identify the environment and pollution as a very serious global problem, and nearly three in five feel the same way about climate change. It is also revealing how many issues are felt to be very serious by a majority across the countries polled. This represents a dauntingly crowded agenda for global institutions such as the UN and G20 that have not yet demonstrated their ability to engage successfully with many of these issues. It points to the value of integrated initiatives, such as the Green Economy Coalition, that take aim at the underlying causes of these linked global problems.

but in the context of other global problems environment still ranks high
Seriousness of global problems

Asked of half of sample: G2t. For each of the following possible global problems, please tell me if you see it as a very serious, somewhat serious, not very serious or not at all serious problem. Graph shows very serious responses, average of 23 countries.

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Concern about climate change has been second to more tangible environmental issues but has converged over time
Seriousness of environmental problems

GlobeScan has also tracked concern over climate change relative to other environmental problems. Climate change has been seen as less serious than more tangible and immediate quality-of-life issues such as water and air pollution in many countries but that gap is gradually closing. Climate change can sometimes seem abstract, complex and distant in comparison to other environmental concerns. In focusing on low-carbon strategies, groups such as the Green Economy Coalition need to be aware that, to many in developing countries, climate change is currently less of a concern than other environmental issues.

Asked of half of sample: G2t. For each of the following possible global problems, please tell me if you see it as a very serious, somewhat serious, not very serious or not at all serious problem. Graph shows percentage of respondents rating problem as very serious, average of 23 countries.

Green energy investment is the most popular strategy to address recession

Favoured measures for addressing economic crisis

There is widespread agreement that governments should play a more active role in responding to the economic crisis in a number of ways, including increased spending, regulation and support to troubled industries and companies. Encouragingly, the most popular measure among those we tested was a significant increase in government spending on renewable energy and clean technology. This green economic strategy received more support than any business as usual initiative such as helping troubled industries or banks a clear sign of public support for transformative changes in truly greening the economy.

Asked of half of sample: M3. To address the current economic crisis, do you favour or oppose the [countrys] government doing each of the following? Results shown are averages from 20 countries, 2009. White space represents depends/neither/both and dont know/not applicable.

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In addition to supporting green technology development as an economic stimulus, global public opinion strongly backs renewable energy as a strategy for preventing climate change. At least half feel that we should rely a great deal on wind and solar power. There may be considerable disillusionment if these expectations are not realised over the next few years. Nuclear power, in contrast, remains much more controversial but even here, there is majority support for using it to meet at least some of our energy needs.

Strong public consensus for a move to renewable energy

How much we should depend on various energy sources to prevent climate change

Asked of half of sample: CC3A. Please tell me how much society should depend on each of the following in the future to produce energy to prevent climate change. Results shown are averages from 22 countries, 2009. White space represents depends/neither/both and dont know/not applicable.

In GlobeScans regular surveys, sustainability experts across business, academia, NGOs and government broadly agree that both behaviour and technological change are needed to address climate change, but they are inclined to feel that behaviour change is more important. Very few see change coming mostly through technology. Nonetheless, with nearly half deeming behaviour change and technology equally important, public engagement and messaging around the issue must take account of both sides of the equation if it is to be credible.

but many experts see behaviour change as more important than technology in addressing climate change
Relative importance of technology vs. behaviour change

6. What is the relative importance of technology versus behaviour change in addressing climate change over the next five years?

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Reducing driving may be a serious challenge for consumers

Perceived importance vs. difficulty of actions to minimise effects of climate change

Of the behaviour changes they regard as important for minimising the effects of climate change, consumers say they could accomplish two things relatively easily: reducing the amount they heat or cool their houses, and buying less imported food. In contrast, they feel it would be difficult to pay more for more energy-efficient products or reduce meat consumption, and they perceive meat consumption in particular as less important, despite the association of livestock farming with CO2 emissions. This presents a challenge for environmental campaigners. Reducing driving is seen as a relatively difficult step, though respondents acknowledge its importance in reducing emissions and addressing climate change.

CCol3. If we are to minimize the effects of climate change, experts say that many of us will need to take steps in our daily lives to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide that is produced from burning fossil fuels (e.g., oil, gas, coal). Here are some steps that people could take. For each one, please indicate how important, if at all, you think it is that people in this country take this step, even if this means reducing their overall quality of life? CCol4. And for each one, please indicate how easy or difficult you think it would be for you and your family to take this action. Results shown are average of 12 countries, 2009.

North America and Europe are eating more local food, but India and Brazil go the other way as economies develop
Frequent consumption of locally grown food

Industrialised countries show some encouraging trends towards more sustainable lifestyles, including a shift towards eating more locally grown food. Major developing economies such as Brazil and India, however, appear to be moving in the opposite direction as their people embrace more affluent lifestyles. The overall shape of this trend is not yet clear. It may prove hard to persuade the new middle class in many of these countries that they do not have a right to enjoy the aspirational lifestyles associated with the West now that they are in a position to afford it.

This finding is drawn from GlobeScans regular Greendex study on behalf of National Geographic, which was conducted online among samples of consumers in 14 countries. 2. How often, if at all, do you consume locally grown food (e.g. from your province, state or region?) Would that be daily, several times per week, once per week, once or twice per month, less than once a month or never? Shown are percentages of daily and several times a week responses in each country, 2008-2009.

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Many experts in sustainability believe the current economic crisis creates great potential for progress towards sustainable development. They most frequently see the potential for positive change at three levels: (1) macro system change, including new economic models and investment in sustainable businesses; (2) institutional change, particularly in how energy is generated and used; and (3) change among citizens, including behavioural and lifestyle changes. Accountability across all sectors is also identified as a key need and opportunity. This suggests that the Green Economy Coalition, as it establishes itself as a progressive and creative voice on these and other key issues, will be supported by opinion leaders in the sustainability field. The coalition stands a good chance of making a real contribution to the transformation towards a green economy.

Experts see new economic models, promotion of alternative energy as opportunities arising from crisis
Most important sustainable development opportunity arising from economic crisis

Asked to subsample of experts who think the economic crisis will have positive implications for sustainable development: 5. Globally, what do you think is the single most important sustainable development opportunity resulting from the current economic crisis? Graph shows percentages of respondents who mentioned items unprompted, 2009.

TheInternational GEC is supported by a secretariat hosted Institute for by IIED in London. For further information on the Environment and GEC please contact: sally.jeanrenaud@iied.org Development tom.bigg@iied.org or steve.bass@iied.org IIED, 4 Endsleigh Street, London WC1H 0DD, UK www.greeneconomycoalition.org

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