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ITC
NEUTRAL
Performance Highlights
CMP
Target Price
(` cr)
1QFY12
1QFY11
% yoy
Angel est.
% Diff
Revenue
5,767
4,824
19.6
5,692
1.3
EBITDA
1,883
1,607
17.2
1,893
(0.5)
32.7
33.3
(66)bp
34.2
(155)bp
1,333
1,070
24.5
1,301
2.4
OPM (%)
PAT
`208
-
Investment Period
Stock Info
Sector
FMCG
1,61,185
Beta
For 1QFY2012, ITC declared steady growth in its top line and earnings (broadly
in-line with our estimates). We maintain our revenue and earnings estimates and
continue to remain Neutral on the stock.
During the quarter, ITC declared top-line growth of 19.6% yoy to `5,767cr
(`5,4824cr), in-line with our estimates. The cigarette division registered 12.9% yoy
growth in gross revenue (15.7% yoy growth in net revenue) on the back of higher
volume growth due to no hike in excise duty in cigarettes. Amongst other
segments, agri-business, paperboards and packaging and non-cigarette FMCG
posted growth of 26.5% yoy, 22% yoy and 19.4% yoy, respectively, while hotels
business grew by modest ~12% yoy. Earnings for the quarter grew by robust 25%
yoy to `1,333cr (`1,070cr), marginally above our estimates. The company has
been successful in reducing its losses in the non-cigarette FMCG business loss
during 1QFY2012 stood at ~`76cr (`89cr).
Outlook and valuation: We expect ITC to report a top line of `24,706cr
in FY2012E and `29,294cr in FY2013E, registering a CAGR of ~18% over
FY201113E. Growth would be driven by the companys diversified business
model and ability to invest in growing businesses. In terms of earnings, we expect
the company to report a `17.5% CAGR over the same period, backed by good
performance by all businesses. At the CMP of `208, the stock is trading at 23.4x
FY2013E EPS. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
0.7
211/150
6,69,730
BSE Sensex
18,197
Nifty
5,482
Reuters Code
ITC.BO
ITC@IN
Bloomberg Code
0.0
42.1
46.6
11.3
Abs. (%)
Sensex
ITC
3m
1yr
3yr
(5.7)
1.1
31.9
8.7
34.4
119.4
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012E
FY2013E
Net Sales
18,153
21,168
24,706
29,294
16.3
16.6
16.7
18.6
4,061
4,988
5,799
6,876
% chg
24.4
22.8
16.3
18.6
EBITDA (%)
33.5
33.8
34.0
34.2
EPS (`)
5.2
6.4
7.5
8.9
P/E (x)
39.7
32.3
27.8
23.4
P/BV (x)
5.7
10.1
8.3
6.7
RoE (%)
29.2
33.2
32.7
31.5
RoCE (%)
36.8
40.8
41.2
40.7
8.5
7.3
6.2
5.2
25.4
21.5
18.4
15.3
% chg
Net Profit (Adj)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Sreekanth P.V.S
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6841
sreekanth.s@ angelbroking.com
1
1QFY12
1QFY11
% yoy
FY2011
FY2010
% chg
Net Sales
5,767.5
4,823.6
19.6
21,167.5
18,153.2
16.6
Consumption of RM
2,299.2
1,792.9
28.2
8,126.5
7,007.3
16.0
38.4
38.6
15.3
1,159.4
1,002.8
5.5
5.5
10.1
4,728.2
4,069.1
(% of Sales)
Staff Costs
39.9
37.2
394.2
341.9
(% of Sales)
Other Expenses
(% of Sales)
6.8
7.1
1,190.6
1,081.7
15.6
16.2
20.6
22.4
22.3
22.4
Total Expenditure
3,884.1
3,216.6
20.8
14,014.1
12,079.2
16.0
Operating Profit
1,883.4
1,607.0
17.2
7,153.4
6,074.0
17.8
32.7
33.3
33.8
33.5
OPM
Interest
Depreciation
Other Income
PBT (excl. Extr. Items)
16.5
12.4
32.6
48.1
64.8
(25.7)
166.5
159.7
4.2
656.0
608.7
7.8
236.6
135.1
75.0
818.8
614.7
33.2
1,937.0
1,570.1
23.4
7,268.2
6,015.3
20.8
23.4
7,268.2
6,015.3
34.3
33.1
20.9
2,280.6
1,954.3
31.4
32.5
4,987.6
4,061.0
23.6
22.4
771.4
381.8
6.5
10.6
Extr. Income/(Expense)
PBT (incl. Extr. Items)
(% of Sales)
Provision for Taxation
(% of PBT)
Reported PAT
PATM (%)
Equity shares (cr)
1,937.0
1,570.1
33.6
32.6
604.3
499.8
31.2
31.8
1,332.7
1,070.3
23.1
22.2
771.4
381.8
1.7
1.4
FDEPS (`)
24.5
24.5
20.8
16.7
22.8
(39.2)
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
30.0
25.0
15.0
( %)
20.0
10.0
5.0
Top-line (LHS)
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
3Q10
2Q10
1Q10
(` cr)
44
40
35
18
22
22
15
10
15
18
12
17
19
12
15
18
13
13
15
21
21
22
24
20
13
17
25
26
32
(%)
30
Cigarettes
Non-Cig FMCG
1QFY11
Hotels
2QFY11
3QFY11
Paperboards
4QFY11
Agri-Business
1QFY12
70.0
30.0
25.0
57.9 60.1
OPM
1Q12
30.7 32.7
4Q11
20.0
36.1
33.3 35.3
3Q11
30.5
2Q11
30.0
35.3 36.1
1Q11
5.0
32.2
3Q10
(%)
40.0
1Q10
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
3Q10
2Q10
1Q10
PAT (LHS)
50.0
(%)
(` cr)
10.0
57.3
60.0
20.0
15.0
2Q10
1,610
1,410
1,210
1,010
810
610
410
210
10
4Q10
Gross margin
1QFY12
1QFY11
% chg
FY2011
FY2010
% chg
Cigarettes
5,269.9
4,669.7
12.9
19,827.6
17,283.0
14.7
Others
1,201.1
1,005.6
19.4
4,482.4
3,641.7
23.1
Hotels
252.5
225.1
12.2
1,077.4
910.8
18.3
Agri Business
1,707.1
1,349.8
26.5
4,748.0
3,862.1
22.9
1,011.3
829.1
22.0
3,666.9
3,233.6
13.4
1,219.7
1,036.5
17.7
3,197.8
2,671.7
19.7
8,222.2
7,043.0
16.7
30,604.4
26,259.6
16.5
Cigarettes
20.8
5,766.8
4,938.1
16.8
(297.6)
(349.5)
266.6
216.6
1,576.7
1,305.0
Others
(76.3)
(89.3)
Hotels
51.3
38.5
Agri Business
157.1
123.1
27.7
566.3
447.8
26.5
227.0
188.5
20.4
819.2
684.3
19.7
1,935.8
1,565.8
23.6
7,121.3
5,937.3
19.9
Cigarettes
29.9
27.9
29.1
28.6
Others
(6.4)
(8.9)
(6.6)
(9.6)
Hotels
20.3
17.1
24.7
23.8
9.2
9.1
11.9
11.6
22.4
22.7
22.3
21.2
Total PBIT
33.2
23.0
Agri Business
Paperboards & Packg.
35.0
5,000
30.0
25.0
20.0
3,000
15.0
2,000
(%)
(`cr)
4,000
10.0
1,000
5.0
-
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
3Q10
2Q10
1Q10
4Q09
(20)
30.0
(40)
15.0
5.0
(76)
(89)
(120)
1Q10
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
3Q10
2Q10
(86)
(100)
1Q10
(85)
(68)
(74)
1Q12
(100)
(79)
4Q11
200
(67)
(80)
10.0
3Q11
400
(60)
2Q11
600
(` cr)
20.0
(%)
25.0
800
1Q11
1,000
(` cr)
4Q10
35.0
3Q10
40.0
1,200
2Q10
1,400
to
its
to
to
in
(%)
(40.0)
(10.0)
40
(20.0)
(30.0)
EBIT (LHS)
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
(40.0)
1Q10
1Q12
4Q11
20
3Q11
(30.0)
2Q11
50
1Q11
(20.0)
4Q10
100
3Q10
(10.0)
2Q10
150
10.0
60
2Q11
20.0
80
1Q11
200
30.0
100
4Q10
10.0
40.0
3Q10
250
120
2Q10
20.0
(` cr)
30.0
300
(%)
350
1Q10
(` cr)
20.0
250
20.0
10.0
200
EBIT (LHS)
1Q12
4Q11
1Q10
(40.0)
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
3Q10
2Q10
1Q10
(40.0)
3Q11
(30.0)
2Q11
(30.0)
(20.0)
50
1Q11
(20.0)
200
(10.0)
100
4Q10
(10.0)
400
150
3Q10
600
10.0
2Q10
1,000
(` cr)
30.0
30.0
(%)
(` cr)
300
1,200
800
(%)
40.0
(20.0)
(30.0)
(40.0)
EBIT (LHS)
1Q12
50
4Q11
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
(60.0)
1Q11
4Q10
(40.0)
3Q10
200
2Q10
(20.0)
1Q10
400
(10.0)
100
3Q11
600
1Q10
(` cr)
20.0
800
10.0
150
(%)
1,000
200
2Q11
60.0
20.0
1Q11
1,400
250
4Q10
80.0
3Q10
100.0
1,600
2Q10
1,800
1,200
(` cr)
(%)
Investment Rationale
Valuation
Multiple (x)
EV/EBITDA
14.0
132,593
171
EV/Sales
4.5
838
Hotels
EV/EBITDA
14.0
7,412
10
Paperboards
EV/EBITDA
7.0
8,727
11
Agri-Business
EV/EBITDA
7.0
4,485
(4,613)
(6)
158,668
205
Cigarettes
Non-Cigarette FMCG (Others)
FY2011
FY2012E
FY2013E
14.3
7.2
6.7
20.8
(10.7)
14.6
0.4
14.7
(2.8)
18.0
23.1
18.3
13.4
22.9
17.0
8.5
7.9
19.7
19.4
(5.7)
(11.0)
17.4
4.9
11.9
19.3
22.7
22.3
10.7
28.6
(9.6)
23.8
21.2
11.6
29.1
(6.6)
24.7
22.3
11.9
34.0
1.0
27.0
23.2
12.9
34.0
1.0
27.0
23.2
12.9
164.7
(20.3)
8.8
18.4
28.3
188.3
(15.7)
9.8
21.7
36.3
236.1
(8.7)
11.0
18.9
28.4
288.5
2.7
12.8
21.5
27.9
Reco
Mcap
(` cr)
CMP
(`)
Asian Paints
Neutral
29,983
Britannia
Neutral
5,758
Colgate
Reduce
Dabur
Accumulate
GSKCHL
Reduce
GCPL
Accumulate
HUL
Neutral
ITC
Neutral
Marico
Neutral
P/E (x)
FY12E FY13E
EV/Sales (x)
FY12E FY13E
RoE (%)
FY12E FY13E
CAGR #
Sales
PAT
TP
(`)
Upside
(%)
3,126
(3)
30.5
24.8
3.2
2.7
39.6
38.3
17.3
19.8
482
31.3
21.4
1.1
1.0
37.8
46.1
17.3
36.0
13,217
972
869
(11)
30.1
25.7
5.0
4.3
111.7
108.0
14.9
12.9
18,147
104
115
10
25.9
22.6
3.6
3.1
44.9
41.6
20.5
18.8
10,143
2,412
2,163
(10)
29.2
24.5
3.4
2.8
32.6
31.8
17.3
17.5
14,099
436
478
10
24.1
21.0
3.6
3.2
38.7
28.0
13.4
18.2
70,676
324
(1)
27.8
24.3
3.0
2.7
74.8
74.6
12.5
17.1
161,185
208
(2)
27.8
23.4
6.2
5.2
32.7
31.5
17.6
17.4
10,279
167
(5)
31.6
25.3
3.0
2.6
31.5
29.5
15.7
30.8
FY2012E
FY2013E
Angel estimates
24,706
29,294
Consensus
Diff (%)
25,405
(2.8)
28,960
1.2
EPS (`)
Angel estimates
Consensus
Diff (%)
FY2012E
FY2013E
7.5
7.8
(3.9)
8.9
9.1
(2.4)
Sensex
200%
ITC
15x
18x
21x
24x
250
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
200
150
100
50
35.0
100%
30.0
80%
25.0
Apr-11
Aug-10
Dec-09
Apr-09
Aug-08
Dec-07
Apr-07
Aug-06
Apr-05
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
Mar-11
Feb-11
Jan-11
Dec-10
Nov-10
Oct-10
Sep-10
Aug-10
Jul-10
Dec-05
80%
60%
20.0
40%
15.0
10.0
20%
5.0
0%
-20%
Apr-02
Oct-02
Apr-03
Oct-03
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Jul-05
Nov-05
Mar-06
Jul-06
Nov-06
Mar-07
Jul-07
Nov-07
Mar-08
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Jul-09
Nov-09
Mar-10
Jul-10
Nov-10
Mar-11
Jul-11
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
21,356
23,144
26,260
30,604
35,468
41,735
7,408
7,532
8,106
9,437
10,762
12,442
Net Sales
13,948
15,612
18,153
21,168
24,706
29,294
13,948
15,612
18,153
21,168
24,706
29,294
% chg
14.7
11.9
16.3
16.6
16.7
18.6
Total Expenditure
9,544
10,753
12,079
14,014
16,319
19,290
Cost of Materials
6,017
5,958
7,007
8,127
9,586
11,366
Advertising Exp
378
502
512
624
692
850
Personnel
733
891
1,003
1,159
1,359
1,611
Others
2,416
3,402
3,557
4,105
4,682
5,463
EBITDA
4,404
4,859
6,074
7,153
8,388
10,004
% chg
11.3
10.3
25.0
17.8
17.3
19.3
(% of Net Sales)
31.6
31.1
33.5
33.8
34.0
34.2
Depreciation& Amortisation
438
549
609
656
714
770
EBIT
3,965
4,309
5,465
6,497
7,674
9,233
% chg
10.4
8.7
26.8
18.9
18.1
20.3
(% of Net Sales)
28.4
27.6
30.1
30.7
31.1
31.5
18
65
48
25
25
Other Income
611
535
615
819
830
844
(% of PBT)
13.4
11.1
10.2
11.3
9.8
8.4
4,572
4,826
6,015
7,268
8,479
10,052
16.4
5.6
24.7
20.8
16.7
18.6
PBT (reported)
4,572
4,826
6,015
7,268
8,479
10,052
Tax
1,452
1,562
1,954
2,281
2,679
3,177
(% of PBT)
PAT (reported)
Add: Share of associates
Less: Minority interest (MI)
31.8
32.4
32.5
31.4
31.6
31.6
3,120
3,264
4,061
4,988
5,799
6,876
3,120
3,264
4,061
4,988
5,799
6,876
ADJ. PAT
3,120
3,264
4,061
4,988
5,799
6,876
% chg
15.6
4.6
24.4
22.8
16.3
18.6
(% of Net Sales)
22.4
20.9
22.4
23.6
23.5
23.5
4.0
4.2
5.2
6.4
7.5
8.9
4.0
4.2
5.2
6.4
7.5
8.9
15.6
4.6
24.4
22.8
16.3
18.6
% chg
FY08
10
Balance Sheet
Y/E March (` cr)
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
377
377
382
774
774
774
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital
Preference Capital
Reserves& Surplus
11,681
13,358
13,683
15,179
18,724
23,342
Shareholders Funds
12,058
13,735
14,064
15,953
19,498
24,116
214
178
108
99
77
57
Minority Interest
Total Loans
Deferred Tax Liability
545
867
785
802
802
802
12,817
14,780
14,957
16,854
20,377
24,975
Gross Block
8,960
10,559
11,968
12,766
15,736
18,599
2,791
3,287
3,825
4,421
5,135
5,905
Net Block
6,169
7,272
8,142
8,345
10,602
12,694
Capital Work-in-Progress
1,127
1,214
1,009
1,333
1,259
1,488
Investments
2,935
2,838
5,727
5,555
6,340
7,125
Current Assets
7,031
8,172
8,143
10,203
9,466
11,885
570
1,031
1,126
2,243
554
1,403
1,662
1,860
1,595
1,766
2,174
2,578
Other
4,799
5,280
5,422
6,194
6,738
7,905
Current liabilities
4,444
4,716
8,064
8,582
7,290
8,217
2,587
3,456
79
1,621
2,176
3,668
12,817
14,780
14,957
16,854
20,377
24,975
Total Liabilities
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Goodwill
Cash
Misc Exp
Total Assets
11
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
4,572
4,826
6,015
7,268
8,479
10,052
438
549
609
656
714
770
(432)
(326)
291
(454)
(616)
(337)
(276)
(267)
(336)
(395)
(414)
1,452
1,562
1,954
2,281
2,679
3,177
(80)
51
206
(25)
(45)
(29)
2,710
3,262
4,901
5,287
5,620
6,587
(2,242)
(1,686)
(1,204)
(1,122)
(2,896)
(3,092)
172
144
(2,889)
172
(785)
(785)
(2,071)
(1,542)
(4,093)
(950)
(3,681)
(3,877)
Depreciation
Issue of Equity
45
45
721
904
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
14
(37)
(70)
(9)
(22)
(20)
1,365
1,543
1,630
4,452
4,001
2,256
(337)
(276)
(267)
(336)
(395)
(414)
(969)
(1,259)
(712)
(3,220)
(3,628)
(1,862)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
(330)
461
95
1,117
(1,689)
849
900
570
1,031
1,126
2,243
554
570
1,031
1,126
2,243
554
1,403
12
Key Ratios
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
51.7
49.4
39.7
32.3
27.8
23.4
P/CEPS
22.1
20.6
17.0
28.6
24.7
21.1
6.5
5.7
5.7
10.1
8.3
6.7
Y/E March
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/BV
Dividend yield (%)
1.7
1.8
4.8
2.1
1.2
1.2
EV/Sales
11.3
10.1
8.5
7.3
6.2
5.2
EV/EBITDA
35.9
32.4
25.4
21.5
18.4
15.3
EV / Total Assets
12.3
10.7
10.3
9.1
7.6
6.1
EPS (Basic)
4.0
4.2
5.2
6.4
7.5
8.9
4.0
4.2
5.2
6.4
7.5
8.9
Cash EPS
9.4
10.1
12.2
7.3
8.4
9.9
DPS
3.5
3.7
10.0
4.5
2.5
2.5
32.0
36.4
36.8
20.6
25.2
31.2
RoCE
33.1
31.2
36.8
40.8
41.2
40.7
43.2
38.8
50.2
57.3
50.9
49.1
RoE
27.7
25.3
29.2
33.2
32.7
31.5
Asset Turnover
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
106
108
91
91
83
81
20
16
18
16
17
17
Payables (days)
73
70
71
77
72
72
53
57
(21)
(11)
24
28
Book Value
Returns (%)
Receivables (days)
13
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ITC
No
No
No
No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
14