Review of the Scottish Climate Change Programme

The Royal Society of Edinburgh (RSE) is pleased to respond to the Scottish Executive Environment Group review of the Scottish clima te change programme. This response has been compiled by the General Secretary, Professor Andrew Miller and the Policy Officer, Dr Marc Rands, with the assistance of a number of Fellows with considerable experience in this area. It is perhaps misleading to describe the potential consequences of future climate change for Scotland in wholly negative terms. As with most developed countries, there will be both winners and losers in terms of the likely impacts. However, the problem of global warming may be more urgent than initia lly thought as there is increasing evidence of positive feedback mechanisms operating. The present-day lack of understandin g regarding the current weather and clima te sensitivity of some activities and sectors highlight the importance of identifying appropriate and detailed adaptation strategies for Scotland. These need to be carefully designed in order to optimise Scotlands position in a changed climatic regime. Further consideration of climate change and the management of Scotlands natural heritage is provided on the attached RSE Briefing Note on this issue. The specific questions in the consultation paper are now addressed below: The Viability of a Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Target What do you think are the main advantages and disadvantages of introducing a Scottish target? While it will be useful for the UK Government to be appraised of the achievements of different regions within the UK, and to know how Scotland performs relative to the other regions of the UK, the complexities associated with implementing targets could divert effort from other important areas within Scotlands climate change programme. The implementation of targets would also be complicated because future greenhouse gas emissions in Scotland would be determined to a large extent by decisions made in Whitehall in te rms of the future of the main power generation plants and because of the gird nature of UK electricity generation and UK-wide supply. It could also result in unhelpful boundaries, where Scottish hydro or renewable power did not contribute to larger sized emission reductions across the UK Given the associated complexities associated with introducing a Scottish greenhouse gas emissions reduction target, should Scotland have its own target? While the Scottish Exe cutive should deliver an equitable contribution to the UK Governments target, there is little pra ctical me rit in pursuing an overall greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for Scotland. The raw data are inadequate for the task and are likely to rema in so. The key factor is the UK commitment to the Kyoto Protocol. Is the Executives current commitment to deliver an equitable contribution to UK climate change commitments sufficient? A detailed examination of every se ctor of the economy should be carried out and objectives set for different sectors which reduce emissions and bring other benefits, such as efficiencies in transport, insulation and desig n of buildings as well as land use policy. Energy Sector What priority should be attached to demand sid e management compared with supply side solutions? Energy efficiency savings obviously make sense where they both save cost and reduce emissions. In particular, in terms of building insulation, use of modern efficient boilers and energy audits. However, any policy based on demand side management must be realistic about the extent to which energy demand can be reduced, as despite energy efficiency ca mpaigns, electrical energy consumption in the UK continues to rise by 1-2% per year. Given this situation, equal priority should be given to supply side solutions, which are deliverable now and can be of the right magnitude to address the problem. Do you support the proposal for developing a Scottish Energy Efficiency Stra tegy? We would support the development of a Scottish Energy Efficiency S trategy. New forms of investment and new product ranges are needed to enhance the drive towards conservation. In this context, lessons can be learnt from other parts of Europe, such as Scandinavia.

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Which sectors have the greatest potential to realise further energy efficiency sa vings? Transport and process in dustries, including oil-refining and power generation. What other new initiatives might be taken forward at the national, regional or local level? Engagement at all levels of Government is required. The Scottish Parliament and Scottish local authorities a ll need to become directly involved in working out detailed regional sub-strategies. This has proved to be effective in other policy areas. Currently we rely on combustion process for 56% of our electricity generation, together with much of our transport. If Scotland is to reduce the net production of CO2, in power generation and transport, then the combustion process has to be reduced or limited. Clearly, the renewable and/or the nuclear options have to be increased to fill the gap, together with more efficient uses of energy. A problem, however, with nuclear and renewable options, is the in termittency of much renewable generation, combined with the inflexibility of nuclear to respond to peaks of demand. An important additional alternative would be Carbon Capture and Storage. This would retrofit or replace old fossil fuel generation plant, to capture CO2 at point sources, liquefy it, and pipe for disposal in porous rock formations beneath the North Sea. The UK, particularly with the Scottish offshore industry expertise, is uniquely well-positioned in the world to exploit this opportunity, which could provide a 2030 year solution to the UK meeting CO2 emission targets. Fossil fuel power, as part of the energy mix, has the advantage that its generation can be varied to fill in the gaps of renewable intermittency, or the peak demand where nuclear can not. Deplo yment of this option could also see significant regional advantages of employment to Scotland, in extending the life of offshore in dustry, facilities and expertise. Transport Sector What scope is there for additional emissions savings from the transport sector? The thrust of the section on transport is limited to land-based transport. This is not unusual because one of the premier gaps in most national green house gas emissions strategies relates to aviation. The Scottish Executive should strongly support plans for the improved identification of the large, and increasing, burden of atmospheric pollution from aircraft. In addition, the progressive introduction of light railways or modern tramways throughout Scotland would serve to provide alternatives to the use of the private motor car for relatively short journeys in largely urban settings. Opportunities could also be examined for regional Scottish agriculture in growing and manufacturing bio-fuel, to use as part of a diesel or petrol mix to lower life -cycle e missions from existing and future personal vehicles. Biofuel has the same CO2 emission when burned as diesel or petrol, however it is not a fossil source of carbon, and so bio-fuel effectively recycles the current ca rbon on the earths surface without adding any extra fossil carbon. What additional measures might the Scottish Executive introduce to support existing policies? The Scottish Exe cutive could examine the effe ctiveness of capita l grants for the stimulation of investment in alternative forms of transport within and between the main population centres Residential Sector What scope is there for additional savings from this sector? Energy conservation measures already in place should be revisited and more incentives provided for existing schemes introduced followin g periods of energy shortage in the 1970s. The Scottish House Condition Survey reveals that there are far too many houses in Scotland that are poorly heated and ventilated leading to unhealthy living conditions for Scottish families with young children. Remedial action is urgently required by the Scottish Executive to address this problem. Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use What scope is there for additional savings from these sectors? An important objective should be to preserve the huge reservoir of carbon contained in peatlands by maintaining their anaerobic status. However, some loss of carbon from organic soils in the uplands will be unavoid able as mean temperatures rise. Any practices that reduce nitrous oxide emissions, for example by increase nitrogen use efficiency in fertilize rs, would also be valuable. Scottish Adaptation Strategy What further evidence of the impacts of clima te change in Scotland is needed to enable effective adaptation, at the national, regional and local levels (in both the public and the private sector? Who should be responsib le for producing this information? The main emphasis of the document is on the Scottish contribution to reducing CO2 emissions to meet the UKs Kyoto Protocol target. By contrast, little attention is given to the scientific problem of assessing the impact of 2

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clima te change specifically on Scotland. Much more work is needed in Scotland on weather and climate sensitivity, both present and future. The lead responsibility for producing this information should rest with the various national agencies (e.g. the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency and Scottish Natural Heritage), research organisations and the universities under the general guidance of the Scottish Executive, with close collaboration with the UK Met Offices Hadley Centre, which is one of the worlds leading in stitutions developing climate models. At the regional level, a ra ised awareness of climate change issues should be cultivated in the loca l authorities, in order to greater influence development control in the planning departments. At present, the changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) for Scotland are less than those predicted for England and very much less than those predicted for continental areas and most of the tropics because Scotlands climate is so heavily moderated by the ocean (Climate Change Scenarios for the UK. UKCIP02 Report. Hulme M, Jenkins GJ et al. Tynall Centre for Climate Change Research, UEA. 120pp). Consequently, the indirect impacts of climate change in England and other parts of the world, may affect Scotland before there are serious impacts from climate change directly. Species diversity may increase in Scotland, because of warming temperatures, although some cold-adapted species are likely to be lost. Additional Information Further copies of this response are available from the Policy Officer, evidenceadvice@royalsoced.org.uk) or the RSE Website (www.royalsoced.org.uk). Dr Marc Rands (email:

February 2005

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