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Sadbhav Engineering
Performance Highlights
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales Operating profit Net profit
Source: Company, Angel Research
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy) 44.1 33.8 32.4 4QFY11 1,046.7 90.8 53.9 % chg (qoq) (41.4) (25.4) (37.3)
`143 `161
12 Months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (` ) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 1QFY2012, Sadbhav Engineering (SEL) posted healthy set of numbers on all fronts. We believe SEL has performed far better than its peers on the bourses owing to 1) consistent quarterly growth on the earnings front; 2) better management of its finances with lower debt levels (standalone) in FY2011 despite a healthy portfolio of BOT assets; and 3) healthy order book. However, given SELs outperformance and limited upside from current levels to our target price, we maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock. Strong quarterly performance: SEL reported 44.1% yoy top-line growth to `612.9cr (`425.3cr) vs. our estimate of 54.0%. Ramp-up in the execution of captive road BOT projects has led to this robust revenue growth. The companys EBITDAM stood at 11.1% (11.9%), above our expectation of 9.7%. We were expecting higher revenue growth and lower EBITDAM on account of sub-contracting of captive road BOT projects (as seen in 4QFY2011). Interest and depreciation costs came in at `12.6cr (`6.0cr) and `6.9cr (`6.5cr), respectively, and were in-line with our estimates. On the earnings front, SEL reported robust 32.4% growth yoy to `33.8cr (`25.5cr), ahead of our expectations of `30.3cr because of higher EBITDAM. Outlook and valuation: With the pick-up in award activity from NHAI, we are optimistic on the road segment, given the quantum of opportunities lined up in the sector. We expect the company to log a CAGR of 13.9% and 10.3% in its top line and bottom line, respectively, over FY201113 on the back of high base created in FY2011. We believe SEL will take a breather to consolidate before the next leap. At current levels, the stock is trading at valuations of 9.0x FY2013E EPS (adjusted for BOT investments), which is reasonable. Hence, we maintain our Accumulate view on the stock with an SOTP-based target price of `161.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 47.6 26.7 23.2 2.6
3m (4.9) 5.3
FY2010 1,257 17.0 53.8 (28.6) 11.0 3.6 39.7 5.5 14.7 16.4 2.0 18.3
FY2011 2,209 75.8 119.6 122.1 10.2 8.0 17.9 3.4 23.5 21.3 1.1 10.8
FY2012E 2,602 17.8 126.2 5.5 9.8 8.4 16.9 2.9 18.4 18.4 1.0 10.5
FY2013E 2,865 10.1 145.5 15.3 10.4 9.7 14.7 2.4 17.9 17.8 0.9 8.9
Shailesh Kanani
022-39357800 Ext: 6829 shailesh.kanani@angelbroking.com
Nitin Arora
022-39357800 Ext: 6842 nitin.arora@angelbroking.com
1QFY12 612.9 545.1 67.8 11.1 12.6 6.9 1.6 49.9 16.1 33.8 5.5 2.3
1QFY11 425.3 374.7 50.7 11.9 6.0 6.5 0.2 38.3 12.8 25.5 6.0 1.7
% chg (yoy) 44.1 45.5 33.8 (80)bp 108.0 7.2 690.2 30.1 25.6 32.4 (50)bp 32.4
4QFY11 1,046.7 955.9 90.8 8.7 11.3 6.9 3.4 76.0 22.0 53.9 5.2 3.6
% chg (qoq) (41.4) (43.0) (25.4) 240bp 10.9 0.7 (52.5) (34.4) (27.1) (37.3) 30bp (37.3)
FY2011 2,209.2 1,983.4 225.8 10.2 28.4 26.9 5.2 175.7 56.2 119.6 5.4 8.0
FY2010 1,256.9 1,119.3 137.7 11.0 33.1 23.3 16.6 98.0 44.1 53.8 4.3 3.6
% chg 75.8 77.2 64.0 (80)bp (14.2) 15.5 (68.7) 79.4 27.3 122.1 110bp 122.1
86 72
78
77
79
75
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
FY2008
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012E Mining
FY2013E
Irrigation
7.3 6.0 4.8 4.5 3.0 2.0 6.0 5.3 5.5 5.2 5.5
9.3
10.1
2.6
Methodology
P/E
Remarks
9x FY2013E earnings
` cr `/share
1,310 1,415.8 216 69 110 36 102 342 253 89 71 128.7 1,102 87.4 94.5 14.4 4.6 7.3 2.4 6.8 22.9 16.9 5.9 4.7 8.6 73.5 160.9
FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E 3,180 2,209 6,965 3.2 4,090 2,602 8,453 3.2 4,386 2,865 9,973 3.5
8.4 9.7
Investment arguments
Aggressive ramp-up of the road BOT portfolio, leveraging on EPC competence: SEL has slowly and steadily moved up the value chain from being a cash contractor to becoming an asset owner. The company is leveraging its core competence in the EPC business to encash on the upcoming opportunities in the road BOT space. This not only serves to shore up its EPC order book but also ensures a consistent revenue stream for SEL in the long run. Strong order book renders top-line visibility: As of 4QFY2011, SEL had a robust order book of `6,965cr (3.2x FY2011 revenue), owing to healthy order booking witnessed in the road segment. SELs order book is spread across segments, including road (73.6%), irrigation (13.8%) and mining (12.7%), with an average execution period of 2430 months. Pertinently, the robust order book continues to provide top-line visibility for the company.
Key concerns
Interest rate: Road BOT projects are vulnerable to interest rate fluctuations, and any hike in interest rates would increase SELs interest costs. Commodity risks: Road players are facing pressures from the recent price inflation in commodities such as cement and steel, which have a direct impact on margins. Awarding from NHAI: Slowdown in awarding activity by NHAI would hit order inflow for road-focused players such as SEL.
13,217 15,860 18,708 9,585 10,992 5,856 2,602 5,373 3,272 1,898 4,908 6,939 2,865 6,721 3,587 2,434 6,467
- Neutral
- Neutral
1,726 2,030
10
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) W.cap cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 0.5 1.4 5.5 0.6 1.7 4.9 1.0 2.8 3.5 0.5 1.4 4.7 0.7 2.1 4.0 0.6 1.8 4.0 4.1 22 58 104 43 4.3 19 73 89 76 4.2 12 104 128 103 6.2 10 93 125 68 6.2 11 108 144 70 5.6 12 111 154 71 25.6 27.0 23.5 20.6 21.0 23.9 16.4 17.1 14.7 21.3 22.9 23.5 18.4 19.5 18.4 17.8 18.8 17.9 9.6 0.7 2.8 18.5 9.6 0.4 22.1 9.7 0.8 2.2 16.8 9.4 0.5 20.7 9.1 0.5 1.9 9.4 5.7 0.8 12.2 9.0 0.7 2.5 15.6 7.1 0.7 21.8 8.4 0.7 2.3 13.2 7.4 0.6 16.7 8.9 0.7 2.1 12.7 7.1 0.7 16.3 4.1 3.4 4.3 0.4 19.1 6.0 5.0 6.1 0.4 22.9 4.3 3.6 5.1 0.4 26.1 8.0 8.0 9.8 0.5 41.8 8.4 8.4 10.7 0.5 49.6 9.7 9.7 12.6 0.5 58.8 42.0 33.0 7.5 0.3 2.5 22.7 5.1 28.3 23.5 6.2 0.3 2.2 19.5 4.1 39.7 27.7 5.5 0.3 2.0 18.3 3.0 17.9 14.6 3.4 0.4 1.1 10.8 2.4 16.9 13.3 2.9 0.4 1.0 10.5 2.0 14.7 11.4 2.4 0.4 0.9 8.9 1.8 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Sadbhav Engg No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
12