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Indian Media and Entertainment Industry

Industry Overview:
The Indian Entertainment and Media Industry have out-performed the Indian economy and is one of the
fastest growing sectors in India. It is rising with the economic growth and rising income levels that India has
been experiencing in the past years.
According to FICCI-PWC report on “Media & Entertainment- 2008” it recorded a growth of 17% in 2007 over
previous year.

ƒ Industry size estimated Rs. 51,300 Crore in 2007, up from Rs. 43,800 Crore in 2006.
ƒ Advertising industry recorded a growth of 22% in 2007 over 2006 to reach Rs. 19,600 Crore in 2007,
up from Rs. 16,100 Crore in 2006; contributed 38% of the industry’s revenues.
ƒ Indian E&M Industry projected to grow by 18% cumulatively over the next five years; projected to
reach Rs. 1,15,700 Crore by 2012.
ƒ Foreign investments in the E&M industry reached a record high of US $211 million.

The industry saw the entry of new players and existing players expanding by diversifying into new segments,
spreading their presence across value chains, broadening their horizons by increasing their geographic
presence.
The advertising industry is experiencing a paradigm shift with digital platforms enabling to reach the critical
mass. This had resulted in consumers shifting from passive mediums to spending more time on digitally
interactive mediums. Internet and mobile are two keys enablers for the same. Internet advertising is
estimated at Rs 420 Crore in 2008 growing at 32% CAGR, expected to touch Rs 1100 Crore in 2012.

Segmental Outlook:
Television Industry:
The television industry in India is currently at its best. It has
contributing the largest share in the Indian E&M industry in
Projected Market Size - Television
the last few years.
55000
Current size: Rs. 22,600 Crore; Projected size in 2012:
Rs. 60,000 Crore Growth in 2007 over 2006: 18%; CAGR 45000
2008-2012: 22%.
Rs Cr

35000
ƒ Television industry is transforming with digitalization of 25000
distribution networks through increase in DTH
subscribers which projected to grow at 44% CAGR 15000
over the next five years. 06 07 08 E 08 E 10 E 11 E
ƒ CAS was made mandatory from January 1, 2007, but
saw lukewarm response during the year.

Print/Animation/Gaming Industry:
Segments like print media, animation and gaming are also
Projected Market Size - Print Media likely to see interesting growth rates. According to
NASSCOM, the Indian gaming market is likely to grow 72 per
22000 cent from US$ 48.51 million in 2006 to US$ 429.54 million in
19000
2010. Similarly, the Indian animation services industry is likely
to grow at a CAGR of 25 per cent from US$ 354 million in
Rs Cr

16000 2006 to US$ 869 million in 2010.


13000 Current size (Print Media): Rs. 14,900 Crore; Projected size
in 2012: Rs. 28,100 Crore
10000
Growth in 2007 over 2006 (Print Media): 16%; CAGR 2008-
06 07 08 E 08 E 10 E 11 E
12: 14%
BMA Research Desk Indian Media & Entertainment Industry

Film Industry:
The Indian film industry, with over 300 Crore admissions
per annum, is the largest in the world, in terms of number Projected Market Size - Film Industry
of films produced per year. This industry, which was worth
US$ 2.12 billion in 2006, is estimated to grow at a CAGR 17000
of 13 per cent to US$ 4.42 billion by 2011.
14000
One perceptible change has been the rapid growth of

Rs Cr
multiplexes, which meets consumer demand for quality 11000
entertainment and has also helped boost production of
8000
niche films targeted at niche audiences.
Current size: Rs. 9,600 Crore; Projected size in 2012: Rs. 5000
17,600 Crore 06 07 08 E 08 E 10 E 11 E
Growth in 2007 over 2006: 14%; CAGR 2008-12: 13%

Radio Industry:

Projected Market Size - Radio


1950 Radio regulator TRAI has recommended to Government
1700 for allowing news on radio and increasing the FDI limit
1450 amongst other provisions; these recommendations are
expected to make radio more favorable with advertisers.
Rs Cr

1200
950 Current size: Rs. 620 Crore; Projected size in 2012: Rs.
700
1800 Crore
450
Growth in 2007 over 2006: 24%; CAGR 2008-12: 24%
200
06 07 08 E 08 E 10 E 11 E

Segment wise projected growth:

GROWTH SIZE IN 2012


SIZE IN 2007 CAGR
Sectors 2007 (projected)
(RS. CR) 2008-12
over 2006 (RS. CR)
Overall 51300 17% 115700 18%
Television 22600 18% 60000 22%
Filmed Entertainment 9600 14% 17600 13%
Print Media 14900 16% 28100 14%
Radio 6200 24% 1800 24%
Music 7300 1% 800 2%
Animation, Gaming & VFX 1300 24% 4000 25%
OOH advertising 1250 25% 2400 14%
Online advertising 270 69% 1100 32%
Source: FICCI PWC Report

Conclusion:

March 08 is the best quarter for the media industry with the union budget being the key revenue driver. We
expect media companies to register a 45.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in revenues with TV18 and Zee
News putting up a strong show. However the net profit growth on an overall basis is expected to be 28.4%
with Zee News outperforming its peers. Consequently, other major companies like PVR, Deccan Chronical,
HT Media yet to announce there results, which are expected to be positive. Other entertainment content
areas like music and television also have a huge potential international market.
Among the entertainment pack we found that fundamentally PVR, Deccan Chronicle, Balaji Telifilms
and HT Media are at attractive level to accumulate on decline. These scripts are good investments for
long term perspective. The business model of these companies is unique and banking on huge
potential of media industry one can invest in these stocks.

Page 2
BMA Research Desk Indian Media & Entertainment Industry

Brief Coverage – Accumulate Deccan Chronicle Holdings Ltd (CMP: 145.10)


Week End May 16, 2008
Highlights:
Sensex 17434.94
Nifty 5157.70
Deccan Chronicle Holdings Ltd, the publisher of popular English daily ‘Deccan
Rating Accumulate
Chronicle’ has been in the limelight after publishing its first business daily
Target 204 (Long term)
‘Financial Chronicle’ in Hyderabad and Chennai market. We expect both sales
and PAT to register a CAGR FY 07-11 of 34% and 37% respectively backed by
positive industry outlook, raising advertising tariff across the board and
Basic Stock Data
geographical expansion. Based on discounted cash flow method, we have
derived valuation of Rs. 204 per share for Deccan Chronicle, which is 40%
Face Value (Rs) 2.00
Share Outstanding (Cr) 24.49
higher than the current market price. A gradual accumulation can be
Latest P/E (x) 12.05
considered in Deccan Chronicle Holdings Ltd at this level, with 12 months price
Latest M-Cap (Cr) 3553.50
target of Rs. 204.
TTM EPS (Rs) 12.04
Book Value 36.27 Investment Rationale:
Avg. Daily Volume 480466
Beta (4/06 – till date) 0.8138 ƒ Print on a roll in the south: The battle for the Rs 1,000-crore print media
52 W H/L 270/134 advertisement market in Chennai has just got hotter with the launch of the
Bonus History Nil financial daily -- Financial Chronicle -- from the Deccan Chronicle group.
Dividend (%) 50.00 The paper introduced former chairman of SEBI M. Damodaran as its
Dividend Yield (%) 0.69 ombudsman, a first for financial daily in India.

Shareholding Pattern ƒ Joint venture: The Company had formed a joint venture company with
Group M (a WPP company) to explore and create a market in the Sport and
Promoter 60.88% Event Management space through its wholly owned subsidiary Sieger
Foreign 20.38% Solution Ltd.
Institutions 13.14%
Public & Others 5.60% ƒ Revenue likely to go up: it has increases its advertising revenue by 30%
with its immediate effect from last month. Revenue from new English daily
Relative Performance is also expected although the print market is crowdie.
195
ƒ Strong fundamental: Turnover ratios like fixed assets turnover, Inventory
turnover are well and above than industry average and better than other
155
peer companies. Operating margin is very high and ROCE and RONW are
% Chg

larger than industry average.


115

ƒ Industry growth potential: According to FICCI-PWC report, new editions


75
and forays into e-publishing are driving growth in print media. The sector is
expected to grow at 14% CAGR to Rs. 28100 crore from Rs. 14900 crore in
07

08
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five yrs. Magazine publishing is expected record a 15% CAGR to 3800


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DC Sensex crore, doubling from 1900 crore today.

Financial Highlights:

Rs Cr 200703 200803E 200903E 201003E 201103E


Sales 552.78 817.32 1062.52 1281.27 1595.55
Growth (%) 67.06 47.86 30 20.59 24.53
PAT 161.36 293.38 381.39 459.91 572.72
Growth (%) 137.78 81.81 30 20.59 24.53
Analyst EPS 6.61 12.22 15.89 19.16 23.86
Debjit Adak, debjit.adak@bmastock.com OPM (%) 52.84 59.45 63.34 65.12 66.5
Chandan Ghosh, research@bmastock.com RONW (%) 28.19 27.63 27.9 26.51 26.12

Page 3
BMA Research Desk Indian Media & Entertainment Industry

Brief Coverage – Accumulate PVR Ltd (CMP:190)


Week End May 16, 2008
Highlights:
Sensex 17434.94
Nifty 5157.70
PVR Ltd, the premium multiplex company, is all set to become a media giant in
Rating Accumulate
line with big brothers like Adlabs and Pyramid saimira. The company will invest
Target 356 (Long term)
around Rs. 400 Crore in setting up 250 screens (at present it runs with 103
screens) over the period of three years. As per our estimation, both the sales
and PAT to grow at a rate of 43% and 61% (CAGR FY 07-11) , backed by
Basic Stock Data
buoyancy in the multiplex sector, which has been growth at a rate of 40%
during the last couple of years and company’s ambitions expansion plan.
Face Value (Rs) 10.00
Based on discounted cash flow, we have derived a valuation of Rs. 356 per
Share Outstanding (Cr) 2.30
share for PVR, which is 89% higher than the current market price of Rs. 190.
Latest P/E (x) 21.25
Latest M-Cap (Cr) 437.19
We recommended gradual accumulation of PVR in every decline with 18
TTM EPS (Rs) 8.94
month’s price target of Rs. 356.
Book Value 78.39
Avg. Daily Volume 21034
Investment rationale:
Beta (4/06 – till date) 0.6084
52 W H/L 376/160 ƒ Enormous Expansion Plan: PVR will be investing Rs. 400 Crore over the
Bonus History Nil next three years to set up 250 multiplexes across India. Out of 250, 40 will
Dividend (%) 10.00 be PVR Prime, which is for high end viewers, where ticket price will be in
Dividend Yield (%) 0.53 the range of Rs. 300- Rs. 750 compared to the normal price of Rs. 120 –
Rs. 150 per share.
Shareholding Pattern
ƒ Entered into production and distribution business: To operate a film
Promoter 40.51% distribution and production business through our 100% subsidiary, PVR
Foreign 31.33% Pictures, acquires and distributes Indian and international films. Its first Co-
Institutions 9.34% production “Taare Zameen Par”, which was released during December
Public & Others 18.82% 2007, has received good reviews and demonstrated strong box office
performance.
Relative Performance
ƒ Out of home entertainment (OOH): To ramp up its presence across retail
250 entertainment landscape, PVR has entered into a JV with Major Cineplex
200 Group, a leading Film exhibition and retail entertainment company based
% Chg

out of Thailand, to bring lifestyle entertainment concepts to Indian


150
consumers. The Joint Venture would set-up bowling alleys, karaoke
100 centers, ice skating rinks and gaming zones across the country to enhance
50 the out of home entertainment experience for Indian consumers.
07

08

Strong performance: Add the latest initiative, which is the film production
07

08

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initiative, which is kicked off very well with Taare Zameen Par being doing
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PVR Sensex very well. The food court initiative along with the Amit Burman, a very
interesting business mix evolving. Operating margins to the north of 25%
with return on capital employed on an individual project basis around 25%
and just 12-times one-year forward earnings with a 60% top line visibility for
the next two-years.

Financial Highlights:

Rs Cr 200703 200803E 200903E 201003E 201103E


Sales 164.72 251.27 351.78 492.49 689.48
Growth (%) 54.46 52.54 40 38.45 35.67
Analyst
PAT 11.06 24.32 36.25 52.63 75.87
Debjit Adak, debjit.adak@bmastock.com
Chandan Ghosh, research@bmastock.com Growth (%) 92.76 119.92 49.04 45.19 44.15
EPS (Rs) 3.95 9.73 14.5 21.05 30.35
OPM (%) 17 22.96 23.38 23.14 22.91
RONW (%) 5.42 8.83 12.29 17.8 21.29
Page 4
BMA Research Desk Indian Media & Entertainment Industry

Brief Coverage – Accumulate Balaji Telefilms Ltd (CMP: 174.65)


Week End May 16, 2008
Highlights:
Sensex 17434.94
Nifty 5157.70
Balaji Telefilms Ltd (BTL) contents cater to a wide spectrum of audience
Rating Accumulate
Target 257 (Long term)
through its diverse software which includes Sitcoms, Soaps, Game Show,
Suspense and Thriller and children’s program in Hindi as well as regional
languages. The company’s success in Television Software market is attributed
Basic Stock Data to its early entry into the market. The company has set up state of art studio
and postproduction facilities at all its centers. Backed by strong acceptance of
Face Value (Rs) 2.00 its productions, upcoming serials, we expect top line and bottom line to grow at
Share Outstanding (Cr) 6.52 a rate of 15% and 22.5% respectively between 2007 to 2011 (CAGR). Based
Latest P/E (x) 13.01 on DCF method, we have derived a valuation of Rs. 257 per share, which is
Latest M-Cap (Cr) 1138.72 51% higher than the current market price of Rs. 174.65. We recommended
TTM EPS (Rs) 13.01 gradual accumulation on Balaji Telefilms with 12 months price target of Rs.
Book Value 46.65 257.
Avg. Daily Volume 169811
Beta (4/06 – till date) 0.3978 Investment rationale:
52 W H/L 388/165
Bonus History Nil ƒ Strong business model: The Group's principal activity is production and
Dividend (%) 175.00 distribution of motion pictures and feature films. The Group operates in two
Dividend Yield (%) 2.08 segments Commissioned Programmes, Sponsored Programmes and
Feature Films. Commissioned Programmes include the sale of television
Shareholding Pattern serials to channels, Sponsored Programmes include the telecasting of
television serials on channels and Feature films include production and
Promoter 40.00% distribution of films. It provides television, entertainment and other related
Foreign 39.92% services in India.
Institutions 11.61%
Public & Others 8.47% ƒ High TRP ratings: A high TRP rating to its productions is one of the
positive aspects of the company. Success comes with its fare share of
Relative Performance criticism. But for sheer intensity, nothing can rival the kind of barbs that
have been regularly hurled at production house Balaji Telefilms and its
400 creative director Ekta Kapoor, the chief chef of that unique concoction
300 called the great Indian soap. Its new production “Kahaani Aurat kii” is about
% Chg

200
to hit in next few months.
100
ƒ JV with Star Group will pay in the future: Most recently company has
0 entered into a Joint venture (51% Star and 49% Balaji) with Star Group to
create a bouquet of regional language general entertainment channels,
07

08
07

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which initially targeting at the southern Indian market. Star will be


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Balaji Sensex responsible for operations of the channels, where as Balaji will produce
regional language shows exclusively for the venture. We expect the venture
will perform well in the future as both the parties have rich experience in
their respective areas.

Financial Highlights:
Rs Cr 200703 200803E 200903E 201003E 201103E
Sales 317.47 327.45 392.94 471.53 565.83
growth(%) 13.23 3.14 20 21.2 15.25
PAT 80.63 88.67 113.06 136.54 181.86
Analyst growth(%) 33.68 9.97 27.52 20.76 33.2
Debjit Adak, debjit.adak@bmastock.com EPS (Rs) 11.69 12.87 16.41 19.82 26.4
Chandan Ghosh, research@bmastock.com
OPM(%) 40.63 43.88 46 46 51
RONW(%) 28.64 21.63 22.6 22.4 24.09

Page 5
BMA Research Desk Indian Media & Entertainment Industry

Brief Coverage – Accumulate HT Media Ltd (CMP: 140.15)


Week End May 16, 2008
Highlights:
Sensex 17434.94
HT Media Ltd, promoted by Hindustan Times Ltd (a leading Newspaper
Nifty 5157.70
publishing company) was incorporated on December 3, 2002. At present HTL
Rating Accumulate
holds 68.73% of shares of HT Media Ltd. HT Media is a major player in the
Target 230 (Long term)
print media in India. It has a leadership position in the English newspaper
market in North India and the second position in the Hindi newspaper market in
the North and East. Backed by rapid expansion plan in tier – II and tier III cities
Basic Stock Data
of Northern India, successful launching of business daily ‘Mint’ as well as capex
plan of Rs. 200 crore to have 10 new printing locations; we have projected a
Face Value (Rs) 2.00
Share Outstanding (Cr) 23.24
top line and bottom line growth of 29% and 41% respective (CAGR 2007-2011).
Latest P/E (x) 25.86
Based on discounted cash flow method, we have derived a valuation of Rs. 230
Latest M-Cap (Cr) 3282.31
for HT media which is 61% higher than the current market price. A gradual
TTM EPS (Rs) 5.42
accumulation can be considered at this level for long term investment purpose
Book Value 33.47 with 15 months price target of Rs. 230.
Avg. Daily Volume 39127
Beta (4/06 – till date) 0.4792 Investment rationale:
52 W H/L 266/128
Bonus History Nil ƒ Rapid Expansion Plan: Consolidating presence in existing businesses
Dividend (%) 15.00 caused revenue growth of over 30% and into aggressive expansion of
Dividend Yield (%) 0.21 readership base. Successful new launches in Merrut/ Agra/ Kanpur and
many other places in UP. The company has launched its Hindi daily
Shareholding Pattern “Hindustan” in Aligarh recently. Pan India presence is one of the main
competitiveness of this organization.
Promoter 68.73%
Foreign 17.96% ƒ Growth Strategy: There are many growth strategy adopted by HT Media
Institutions 9.40% are expand English franchise across metros, Enter new Hindi market,
Public & Others 3.91% Extend Mint footprint, Continuing to invest in printing and infrastructure hub,
complement print with internet/ magazines.
Relative Performance
ƒ Diversification into e-business and FM radio space: Company’s’
210 subsidiary Firefly e-ventures has launched job portal www.shine.com, and
we expect the venture to be successful as the portal will get back-up from
160 its the versions Hindustan Times, Hindustan and Mint. Another social
%

network site www.desimatri.com has been doing well and company has
110
planned to launch other site in matrimonial, real estate and auto verticals.
60 Fever FM, the radio JV with Virgin has been successfully running in Delhi,
Kolkata, Mumbai and Bangalore and will be extending its footprint in other
07

08
07

07

cities also.
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HT Media Sensex
ƒ Strong Fundamentals: Low Debt Company having enough growth
potentials. High turnover ratio and high return on net worth give strong
massage to its shareholders. Looking at strong last three quarter and
attractive industry position one can invest for 1 yr down the line. Its e-
business, radio businesses are also in growing phase.

Financial Highlights:
Rs Cr 200703 200803E 200903E 201003E 201103E
sales 1039.3 1320.46 1716.6 2231.58 2901.05
growth(%) 26.17 27.05 30 28.45 25.67
Analyst PAT 118.71 219.74 273.09 360.74 475.72
Debjit Adak, debjit.adak@bmastock.com growth(%) 208.72 85.11 24.28 32.1 31.88
Chandan Ghosh, research@bmastock.com EPS 4.95 10.06 12.5 16.51 21.77
OPM(%) 22.18 29.2 27.71 27.71 27.71
RONW(%) 15.15 22.9 23.18 24.6 25.75

Page 6
Valuation Using DCF Method:

Deccan Chronicle PVR


Rs Cr 0603 0703 0803E 0903E 1003E 1103E 1203E Rs Cr 0603 0703 0803E 0903E 1003E 1103E 1203E
sales 331 553 817 1063 1281 1596 1796 sales 103 165 251 352 492 689 864
other income 21 32 49 64 77 96 108 other income 3 7 9 12 15 20 26
expenses 227 295 327 425 513 638 718 expenses 87 139 203 281 394 552 691
PBDIT 125 291 539 701 846 1053 1185 PBDIT 19 33 58 82 114 158 199
Interest 19 33 76 98 118 147 166 Interest 3 6 6 10 14 19 24
PBDT 106 257 464 603 727 906 1019 PBDT 16 28 52 72 100 139 175
dep 10 17 32 42 51 63 71 dep 7 12 16 19 23 27 33
PBT 96 240 431 561 676 842 948 PBT 9 15 36 53 77 112 142
tax 28 79 138 179 216 270 303 tax 3 4 11 17 25 36 45
PAT 68 161 293 381 460 573 645 PAT 6 11 24 36 53 76 97
add: dep 78 178 326 424 511 636 716 add: dep 13 23 40 55 76 103 130
working cap 175 290 305 366 403 463 533 working cap 73 -43 6 7 7 8 10
cash from op. -97 -111 21 58 108 173 183 cash from op. -60 66 35 49 68 95 120
capex 41 12 14 21 32 47 51 capex 58 18 14 21 32 47 51
FCF -137 -124 7 36 77 126 133 FCF -118 48 21 28 37 48 69
PV 7 33 64 97 94 PV 21 25 31 37 49
Total PV 296 Total PV 163
terminal val 1623 terminal val 703
total firm value 1919 total firm value 866
share price (Rs) 204 share price (Rs) 356

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Valuation Using DCF Method:

Balaji Telefilm HT Media


Rs Cr 0603 0703 0803E 0903E 1003E 1103E 1203E Rs Cr 0603 0703 0803E 0903E 1003E 1103E 1203E
sales 280 317 327 393 472 566 679 sales 824 1039 1320 1717 2232 2901 3481
other income 9 13 21 24 28 34 41 other income 18 40 36 47 61 79 102
expenses 187 201 204 236 283 311 373 expenses 728 849 971 1287 1674 2176 2611
PBDIT 102 129 144 181 217 289 346 PBDIT 113 230 386 476 618 804 973
Interest 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 Interest 14 14 18 20 23 27 31
PBDT 102 129 144 180 216 288 345 PBDT 100 216 368 456 595 777 942
dep 14 11 13 13 15 20 24 dep 39 40 45 54 65 78 93
PBT 88 118 130 166 201 267 321 PBT 61 177 323 402 530 700 849
tax 29 37 42 53 64 86 103 tax 20 58 103 129 170 224 272
PAT 59 81 89 113 137 182 218 PAT 41 119 220 273 361 476 577
add: dep 73 92 102 127 152 202 243 add: dep 80 158 265 327 425 553 670
working cap -17 35 30 36 40 46 53 working cap 327 -239 36 43 47 54 62
cash from op. 90 57 72 90 112 156 190 cash from op. -248 398 229 284 379 500 608
capex 5 4 5 8 11 17 25 capex 4 19 21 31 46 69 51
FCF 85 53 67 83 100 139 164 FCF -251 379 209 254 332 430 558
PV 67 76 85 107 116 PV 21 233 280 332 395
Total PV 451 Total PV 1261
terminal val 1746 terminal val 4391
total firm value 1746 total firm value 5652
share price (Rs) 257 share price (Rs) 230

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