Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 70

www.carnegie.

ru


2011

327.8
66.4
25

.
Thomas de Waal. Georgias Choices: Charting a Future for Georgia in Uncertain
Times.
, :
http://www.carnegie.ru/publications.
,
.
,

.

.
: ? / 25
; . . . ; . . ., 2011. 67 .
ISBN 978-5-905046-12-4

, 2012 2013 . , , c .

327.8
66.4

ISBN 978-5-905046-12-4

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2011

10


2011.

13

19

24

30

39

44

54

Summary

60

65

66

49

35

- -

.
, , , .
: (de WaalT. The Caucasus:
AnIntroduction. [S.l.]: Oxford Univ. Press, 2010).
. , , , . -- , 19931997.
Moscow Times, The Times Economist.
: (de WaalT., GallC. Chechnya:
Calamity in the Caucasus. [S.l.]: NYU Press, 1998). 2003. : (de WaalT. Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan Through Peace and War. [S.l.]: NYU Press),
, .
20022009. .
Conciliation Resources
, 2010. .
, .

. .
, , 2004 2008.
2008. . 2012 2013.,
, .
:
( ) .

. .
, , ,
1.
20042008. .
, .

, - .
: () , . ,
2008., . 2011.
10

, , . ,
, 2.
.
,
- :
,

.
.
,
,
, .
.


(). , . ,
. : , . , , , , -
, ,
,
.
, .
, 2004., .
, , , ,
3. , .
,
, .

11

, . :
,
. ,
, :
, . . , , ,
- ,
. , .
, ,
.
, , . - . , ,
, .
, , , , , .

12

. ,
, , , .
. , 1991., . ,
,
. 1992. , .

.
, .
, .
2003. , ,
.
, , :
. 24 2004., , : , XI ., , . : :
, ,
4.

13

,
, . 2011.,
: [ 2003.] .
. , , . , , .
,
5.
, . ,
, . ,
, . , 12% ( )
2006. 3 . 2004.
13 .
,
.
, , , . .
.

. , , . 98%
, .

. ,
6.

, . ,
2007. 2 . (, ,
).
14


: 12- .
. , ,
.
. 2007. - , , .
7 2007. .
, 2008.
, . , 2008.
.
2008. , : , , , .
, 7.
, : , , . , ,
.

. , , - 2008.
. .

,
. -, ,
. . 2010., , .
:
.

15

, . Transparency International,
... - , , .
, . , , , . , -
, , , 8.

, , , , . 2008.
. . ,

, . , 2010.,
, :
56%,
2009. .

. -, . , .
2010 2011.,
, .
, 2015. , ,
,
, :
16

- . .
.

. , ,
, , . 2009., , , , .
. , :
,
.
2003., 2011.
. ,

, 2010 . 19% .
. ,
12 . : ,
, .
, , .
. : . 2010.
, 9.
, , .
2008.
4,5 .,
, , ,
. ,

17

,
. 250 . , . , ,
750 . .
( :
2009. 14%).
. , 295 . 20052010. ( ) , 2011. , ,
. ,
, , , , .

18

2011.

2011. : .
,
2008., .
.
: ,
, . 2007., 2 . , . 2008.
1,5 ., 2009- 658 . 2010.
16%, 553 .
.
, , ,
.
, , , .
; .
, , . :
20102011. ,
. 11 2011. , 2015. 5 , ,
.

19

. 2011.
13%.
10%. , 4 .
. , . 2010.
46% .
. 2008.
500 ., . 130 . , .
, 2009.
. 2011. 80% J.P.Morgan Goldman Sachs
, , . ,
. 7,125% .
, 10.
: ,
( , ),
, , , . Economist :
11. . 2010.
,
, .
,
: , , . , , 2011. .
20

, , ,
.

, ?
, , , . 1 2011. ,
. , .
, , - 100 . , .
. 1990- :
,
,
. 1996 . , , BP, , ,
. , .
. 2010.
, , ,
98 .12
, , , . , 2010.,
. . , , . , ,
7 . , 72 .
-
.
,
. , -

21

,
.
. . , ,
. ,

.
. :
1990- , ,
,
. ,
-, .
: -
13.
, (
, ), . : , , ,
:
.
, . : CNN Economist, . , ,
, . ,
, .

, , : , 14. :
,
, , , ,
, , . Transparency
International 15. ,
22

. , 2009., : ,
, , .
. , -
. ,
, ,
, , ; , 16.
20102011. . ,

MagtiCom,
, ,
. , .
. - . , , , 2010.,
: , , . , . , 1 2010.
, 10% .
, , , ,
- .
2011.
-, . , , Castel. ,
- ,
,
17.

23

,
. 2009. 4774 . (. 1). . .
, 2010., 25% ,
. 1.
, . (2009 .)
25 000

21 644
18 963

20 000

13 885

15 000

9 638

10 000

5 000

4 774

5 279

6 318

2 854

: .

24

, 42% ,
. ,
2011. ,
.
, 61% , 39% (. 2).
. 2.
, %
70

2011 .

60

2010 .

50

2010 .

40
30
20
10

: .

16%,
, , , , , . 2010 .
, 30% , 18. ,
: 27% , ( ).
2009.
. :

25

2003. ,
. :
() , 2003., , ; () ,
/ (, , , , ) 19.

.
- .
, 60%
. , - ,
.
55% . ,
, , .
(- ) -, - .
. , , , .
. 1990-
.
,
. , , . 2002 2009. 43%, 199 80
. 20. , 2010. 1% 53 ( 32
.). :
. : ,
26

, . , 80% ,
2011.
2011. , . XXI .,
150 ( 90 .),
2011.21 , ,
2012.
. : , , . , , , .


. , , ,
. . , ,
, .
: . ,
, 30 . . 2006.
,
, , : , .
, , (
)
.
2006.
, . : , ,
.

27

. 2005.
52 , 90%
. . , ,
. 2010. 10 22.
.
, , .
6 . .
, . ... ,
. . , . .


(). , .
, , , ,
. , , ; , ,
.
. - .
,
, , 2009. 46,3%
. .
, , : ,
, ,
,
.
,
. 2010 ., ,
: , 700 . (425 . .) ,
. : - . , , 50 . ,
.
, : , , , .
: , , .

28

.
.
.
5, .
:
.
: . ,
, , -
. , ,
. , ,
, . . : , .
.

29

, , , . ,
.
, (. 3).
. 3.
9
8

7.92
7
7

7
6.47
6
5

5
4.9

3
2

6.18

7
4.62
4.44
4.38

3.33

4.59
3.89
3.75

2.14

1.79
0.79

1
0
2006

30

2008

20 10

: . , .
.
.
, , 23.
, , , 2012 2013. :
( ) 2013. -, ,
, .

. , 190 . , , 2008.,
71 75 .
,
, : , , .
, ,
, , - .
, , 24.
: , ,
, . ,
: , , ,
, , - - , .
. , ,

31

. , ,
2010. 50% . ,
, , ,
.
, : -2,
- . -2
- ,
, 2011.
, ,
:
.
. -225. . 2007.
, . 2010.
,
. , .
,
, ,
, . : . ,
, ,
, : 26.
, , , General Media, 95% .
, 2010.
-2, - 57
32

(34 .), 68 (41 .). . 2010. 90%


.
27.
. , , , ,
. . 2010. 2 .
,
C-SPAN. - , . , , ,
-
, .
, . ,
, , , 28. , , (
), , . , , ,
, : , , ,
.
,
,
29.
. , , ,
. 30. ,

33

. , 2008. , . , ...
.
, .

34

, . ,
, ,
.
,
,
.
2004., , . ,
.
.
, . , . , , ,
31. 2011. , ,
. ,
6654 2004. 23 684 2010-. 32.
, , , 2010. 142 ,
.

35

, 2011.33
.
. 2010. 7296 , 21 (0,04%) . , ,
. , ,
. 2009.
61 (36,2 .). , , . Transparency International
: ,
34.
.
, , . : .
, , : .

, , ,
35.
. , , .
, , , , . ,
- , , . , ,
36

. . , ,
, ,
. , ,
,
2010., 36.
, ,
. , , : ,
. , , :
, . ,
.
, . 2007. ,
- , .

-
. :
,

?

,
, ,
, .

. . , ,

, ,
, . ,
. :

37

, , ,
, 37.
, , : , ,
,
, .
Transparency International , . : ,
. ,
, .

38

. , , ,
, .
, . 38.
, (. 4).
. . ,
. : , . II:
, 2010. .

, . ,
. 2010. : . : .
.

39

. , , , , , . II, 1977.,
, , 90%.
.
. 19901991., .
, .
20042009., .
: ,
. 4.




,
,

.

II

, , .

,
.

40

. 2004., , , :
, .
,
, , . 20072008. .
, . , , , , -,
. 2007.;
. 2010.,

,
: ,
39. ,
,
,
, ,
,

.
.
, , , (4,5 4,38
). , .
-, .
,
, , . , ,
, 50
. , . . 2011., :
. : , ,
, ,

41

. 5.

48

98
54

57

17

33

12

93

123

63

3
27

65

145

61

89

, , . . , ,
, . , , ,
40.

(.5); , .
, , ,
2005
2010.. , , . , , :
, . ,
.
42

,
41.
,
.
(. . 5), : .
, , 93- .
,
, , , . ,
, , .

43

, , , , . , , .
: ?

. 1999 . .
, ,
, : , , . 1955 ., ,
12 . , ,
: 2004 ., .
, . 2004 . :
, , ,
, . 2008
., ,
: ,
, . . ,
, , .
44


, .
. , . , , ,
-
: ,
. .
. 2008 . , , .
, , . :



2009 . : , ,
, , . , , , , , 42.
, , .
( ),
, , .
,
. , 20102013 . - ,
, 600 . . ,
, , .

45

,
27 . ,
. (, , ) , , ,
, ( ), , - .

.
, , . , , ,
- , , , , . , 1 2011 ., .
, , , ,
, .
, -, , . 2011 .
,
. , , . 2011 . : , ,
, .
: ,
,
- .
, , ,
, . 43.
, 2011 .

46

,
.
,
. : . ,
. , ,
2010 . ( ), : ,
,
. . ,
. ,
. 2011 . ,
.
, , . : . , 2009.,
: , , 20% , .
. 20% ,
, 39% , .
9% , . ,
44.
, , , , , . ,
, ; .
. ,
, , ,
.

47

. , , ,
, : , . , , ,
, 45.
,
,
, . , .

48


.
() ,
.
,

. ,
. , , , , , .
,
: , .
, .
, - , - ; .
2009 . ,
, , , :
46.
, 1996 .,

49

,
.
2008 . , , , ,
. ,
.

, 6%47.
, , , ,
. , . , , , .
2008 . ,
, 2010 .
,
, ,
.
, , . . 2008 .,
. , , ,
.
, , : ,
, . ,
. ,
2010 2011 . .
50


( 2006 . ), . , , , .
2011 . : , .
, 2011 . , : .
,
. ,
, , , , ,
.
, , , .
, , , , , . , , ,
.
: . . : , , ,
.
, ,
.
(),
, ; ,
. , , . ,
, , .
, ,
. ,
, ,

51

. , ,
. , , 48.
:
, , , ,
,

. , ,
,
, 49.
.
.
:
... , , ,
,
. .
, : ,
, ,

.
. .
,
. :
. ,
,
.

,
52

,
. : , , - .
, ,
, , 50.
.
, ,
. ,
: ,
. , , , .

: , , .
, .
, .
,
, .
. ,
, , .
, , -
.
1 2011 . ,
, , ,
. ,
51.

53

, ,
. , ,
.
. . .
, . , , .
:
, .
, , . 2011 . . , .
, , . ,
, . , , ,
, ,
. : ?
54

,
20122013 . - ,
, . , , - . 2011 . : -
.
- , , , .
, - ,
. , , 2004 .
. , , , , .
:
, 20122013 .? ,
, , .

, . ,
. 2011 . , 2015 .
, , , 50% ,
5
.
,
:
, - ,
, , - . , , ,
, ( ), .
: , - , 52.

55

.
, , .
,
: , .
,

, .

, , , . , ,
.
,
.
,
,
. - , ,
, .
, , . , .
, ; , .
( ),
( ).

. ,
,

. , , .
, ,
.
56

,
.
, . , , ,
, .
. , ,
, , , ,
. 1 2011 . :
.
, , , .
, ,
:
,
,
. ,

.
2010 .,
: ,
.

53.
,
: 75 . 54. , 2011 .
, . , , . :
, . : ,
. , . .

57

, , . , , ,
:
. .
.
:
, . ,
. : .
.
, . , , :

?
, ,
. ,
,
. , , , ,
.
, : , ,
. , , .
, , ,
.

, . , , ,
.
58

,
, .
, . 2010 . 20112013. 31 (46 .),
, ,
. ,
,
.

, ,
. , : , 2008 ., ,
.
, , , .
- ,
,
.
, ,
.
, 2010 .: ,
. <...>
, . , , , .
55.
, , ,
.

59

2010 2011.,
2011 . ,
, .

.
, .
1

, ,
20092010.
. .: http://www.crrccenters.org/
caucasusbarometer.

13 2011.

11 2011.

Saakashvili Vows Improvements with Drastic Measures // Civil Georgia. 2004. Jan.25.


() 17 2011. :
.

,
Transparency International. 2003. 1,8 ( )
, 2010. 3,8. . http://www.transparency.org/
policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2010/results.

Georgias Mental Revolution // Economist. 2010. Aug.19.

Monitoring Georgias Anti-Corruption Commitments / Transparency Intern. Georgia. [S.l.],


2010 (http://transparency.ge/sites/default/files/post_attachments/ENP_TI_Georgia.pdf).

Election Campaign Funds // Civil Georgia. 2010. June15.


312888 (177223 .)
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner.

60

10 Martin B., Jordan J. Georgias 1st Dollar Bond Since 2008 to Raise $500 Million //
Bloomberg. 2011. Apr.7.
11 Georgia cannot live on frog exports alone // Economist. 2010. Nov.18 (http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2010/11/georgias_economy).
12 .: BarrettP.M. Trapped in Tbilisi //
Businessweek. 2011. Febr.24.
13 8 - :
Elbit Systems,
2007., , -
100 .
14 ,
.
http://www.papava.info.
15 The Georgian Taxation SystemAn Overview / Transparency Intern. Georgia. [S.l.], May
2010.
16 Georgia Manufacturing Sector Competitiveness Assessment / World Bank Investment Climate Advisory Services. [S.l.], May 2009.
17 Tax Ombudsman: Business Climate Problem Not as Large as It Seems // Civil Georgia.
2011. March 20. . : GigauriE. New Tax Ombudsman May Face Conflict of Interest /
Transparency Intern. Georgia. [S.l.], Febr.3 2011.
18 Saakashvili on Three Pillars of Georgias Economy // Civil Georgia. 2010. Nov.8.
19 Georgia Poverty Assessment / World Bank. [S.l.], Apr. 2009. .1 (http://www-wds.
worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2009/04/29/000350881_20
090429111740/Rendered/PDF/444000ESW0P1071C0Disclosed041281091.pdf).
20 ,
.
21 Saakashvili Calls for Active State Involvement to Boost Agriculture // Civil Georgia.
2011. March 8.
22 .: VardiashviliM. One
Brand and Many Problems // Liberali. 2011. March 14.
23 GoodhartD. Mishas freedom laboratory // Prospect. 2011. Febr.23 (http://www.
prospectmagazine.co.uk/2011/02/mikheil-saakashvili-interview-georgia-freedom-tblisi).
:
, ,
,
--.
24 . 11 2011.: http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11538.
25 2011. 70% -2 Degson Limited, . 30%
Georgian Industrial Group , ,
, a , ,

61

. -
, .
26 International Crisis Group, Georgia: Securing a Stable Future. [S.l.], Dec. 13 2010.
.12. (Europe Policy Briefing 58).
27 Tugushi L. Financial Freedom of Media, Sustainability and Management Problems and
Perspectives. [S.l.], Apr. 2011. (USAID Georgia paper).
28 , 2010.
, (
),
, - .

(
). , ,
,
.
29 MacFarlaneS.N. Post-Revolutionary Georgia on the Edge?. [S.l.], March 2011. (Chatham House Briefing Paper; 14).
30 2010. , , ,
,
,
. .: .
// . 2010. 19 . ,
, , ,
,
-2 (. , 37).
31 2011.
50 . ,
,
2006. , ,
, . : ,

, ,
. .: Georgian authorities
did not investigate effectively the kidnapping and killing of 28-year old man. [S.l.], Apr.26,
2011. (European Court of Human Rights press release; 366) (http://cmiskp.echr.coe.int/
tkp197/view.asp?action=open&documentId=884704&portal=hbkm&source=externalbydocn
umber&table=F69A27FD8FB86142BF01C1166DEA398649).
32 100 . 538 ;
. , , :
, , - , . .: World Prison Brief / Kings College London // http://www.kcl.ac.uk/depsta/law/research/icps/worldbrief/wpb_stats.
php?area=all&category=wb_poprate.

62

33 Protesters Arrested Outside Supreme Court // Civil Georgia. 2011. Apr.5.


34 Plea Bargaining in Georgia: Negotiated Justice / Transparency Intern. Georgia. [S.l.], Dec.
15, 2010. .23 (http://transparency.ge/sites/default/files/post_attachments/Plea%20Bargaining%20in%20Georgia%20-%20Negotiated%20Justice.pdf).
35 Final Opinion on the Draft Constitutional Law on Amendments and Changes to the Constitution of Georgia / Venice Commission. [S.l.], Oct.1516 2010. Paragraphs 8690.
36 : -
. ,
,
.
, , ,
,
. .: Human Rights Report on Georgia, 2010 / U.S. Department of State // http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/hrrpt/2010/
eur/154425.htm.
37 Ram shechama kartuli biznesi? [ ?] //
Liberali. 2011. 02. 63. P.1225.
38 , ,
. : Reinventing Georgia: The Story of a Libertarian Revolution / European Stability Initiative. Berlin; Brusselles; Isnanbul, Apr. 2010 (http://www.esiweb.org/index.
php?lang=en&id=322&debate_ID=3).
39 Saakashvili: Georgia Switzerland with Elements of Singapore // Civil Georgia. 2010.
March 9.
40 17 2011. (http://
www.brookings.edu/events/2011/0317_saakashvili.aspx).
41 .: Georgia: Labour Code Tears Fundamental Rights to Shreds /
Intern. Trade Union Confederation. [S.l.], May 2008 (http://www.ituc-csi.org/IMG/pdf/
VS_georgia_EN.pdf).
42 , ,
- :
.
43 26 2011. (,
). .: http://brussels.gmfus.org/
wp-content/uploads/2010/11/The-European-Neighborhood-Policy_Mar26.pdf.
44 / . . . (http://www.crrccenters.org/caucasusbarometer), 20092010.
45 TavkhelidzeM. Mashasadame [] // Tabula. 2010. 07.06 (http://www.tabula.ge/
article-1479.html).
46 Georgia Manufacturing Sector Competitiveness Assessment / World Bank. [S.l.], May
2009 (http://www.ifc.org/ifcext/georgiasme.nsf/AttachmentsByTitle/2GeorgiaManufacturin
gSectorCompetitivenessAssessmentExeSumEng/$FILE/2GeorgiaManufacturingSectorComp
etitivenessAssessmentExeSumEng.pdf).

63

47 Economic Feasibility, General Economic Impact and Implications of a Free Trade Agreement
Between the European Union and Georgia, Final Report / M.Maliszewska, ed.; Center for Social and Economic Research. [S.l.], May 8, 2008. .113.
48
CARIS ,
+ ( ). ,
, ,
, .
49 ,
408
2004. 2035 2007-. .: http://www.ifc.org/ifcext/eca.nsf/Content/
GeorgiaProjectFSI.
50 Shumylo-TapiolaO. EU and Ukraine: Trade Is Not the Main Issue // New Europe. 2011.
Iss.930. Apr.10 (http://www.neurope.eu/articles/105783.php).
51 - , ,
,
,
.
52 , ,


100. .
53 .: ModebadzeS. You Will Not Get Your Land Back Soon, Says Estonian President // Messenger Online. 2010. Jan.22 (http://www.messenger.com.ge/issues/2028_january_22_2010/2028_salome.html).
54 .: Estonias Way into the European Union / K.Tael, ed.; Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Tallinn, 2009.
55
(http://eeas.europa.eu/
delegations/georgia/press_corner/all_news/news/2010/20100212_01_en.htm).

64

Summary

Georgia is entering a period of transition, with parliamentary and presidential


elections due in 20122013, after which a new constitution will take effect. The
current government has made good progress in building a functioning state that
delivers services to citizens, but Georgias economic picture is increasingly uncertain.
The governing elite, led by President Mikheil Saakashvili, has no serious
domestic political opposition but faces the challenge of how to re-invent itself. It
suffers from an accountability gap and risks turning Georgia into a one-party state.
After years of governing in an informal and improvisational way, the Georgian
government needs to build institutions and choose a long-term development
model. Three ideas pull Georgia in different directions. One is a conservative
traditional conception of old Georgia, which commands respect but offers little
as an economic or political model. A second idea, envisaging Georgia as another
Singapore open to worldwide investment, has many supporters, especially from
the still influential libertarian group who believe that Georgia needs maximum deregulation. But foreign investment is currently falling in Georgia and this model
would not solve deep problems such as rural poverty and high unemployment.
The European Union offers a third path, with a prospective Deep and
Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement that would offer privileged access to the
EU single market in return for institutional reform. This path would require the
governing elite to surrender both political and economic power. The EU has sold
the idea poorly and will need to offer more foreign technical assistance to ease the
regulatory burden it will impose. But it offers Georgia the best hope of long-term
development and a European anchor.

65

, , -
(). 1910 . . () .

, , ,
.

, ,
, , - , . - , - ,
.
1992 .
,
, . 1994 . ,
, - ,
, .

,
66

, -
, , , .
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE
1779 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20036, USA
Tel.: +1 (202) 483-7600; Fax: +1 (202) 483-1840
E-mail: info@CarnegieEndowment.org
http://www.CarnegieEndowment.org

, 125009, , ., 16/2
.: +7 (495) 935-8904; : +7 (495) 935-8906
E-mail: info@arnegie.ru
http://www.carnegie.ru

:

?

.
.
.

29.07.2011
6090 1/8.
Arno Pro.
. .
. . . 8,5
1000 .


127322, , . , . 10, . 96
classick21@gmail.com

August Borg
105264, , .,
. 47, . 11

www.carnegie.ru