Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Capital Link Forum Closed End Country Funds and Global ETF Conference April 9, 2002 The Pierre Hotel, New York
Joaquin G. Hofilea
Portfolio Manager, Clemente Capital, Inc.
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Typhoon Angela
Insider trading scam Hostages, bom bings El Nino Estrada im peached Fed cuts rates WTC Attack
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Inflation rises
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Earthquake
N-89 M-90 N-90 M-91 N-91 J-92 D-92 J-93 D-93 J-94 D-94 J-95 D-95 M-96 D-96 M-97 D-97 J-98 D-98 J-99 D-99 J-00 J-01 J-01 J-02
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Performance Comparison: FPF NAV vs. Philippine Composite Index Inception to March 31, 2002
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-50
-100 N-89 A-90 S-90 F-91 J-91 D-91 M-92 O-92 M-93 A-93 J-94 J-94 N-94 A-95 S-95 F-96 J-96 D-96 M-97 O-97 M-98 A-98 J-99 J-99 N-99 A-00 S-00 F-01 J-01 D-01
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FPF
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PSE
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Top Holdings
as of December 31, 2000
Company San M iguel Corp. - A Phil Long Distance Telephone ADRs Ayala Corp. SM Prime Holdings Ayala Land Bank of the Phil. Islands M etro Bank & Trust Filinvest Land Inc. ABS-CBN PDRs La Tondea Distillers M anila Electric Co. A Jollibee Foods Percent of the Portfolio 12.49 11.78 9.16 8.84 7.51 5.62 5.25 3.91 3.66 3.21 2.99 2.77 % % % % % % % % % % % %
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Politics
Politics
Conflict is confined to a small island in Southern Philippines. Small band of bandits/rebels now only about 100 of Basilans 300,000 population. Muslims account for about 3 million of total 80 million population, which is predominantly Catholic. US military assistance and training as part of war exercises is welcomed. Government sees poverty alleviation as integral part of fight against terrorism.
Basilan
Economics
2001 growth surpassed analysts and governments estimates. Led by consumption, modest growth was achieved despite early skepticism and a volatile global economy. Structural reforms that enhanced productivity and competition supported the economy. These included: Modernizing agriculture and fisheries Liberalizing trade, telecom and utilities.
Economics
Stability with the peso and inflation. Better inflation and GIR levels in 2002, as well as interest rates at a 15 year low, may cause a revision of official targets. Monetary policy will remain expansionary in 2002. Fiscal discipline was restored in 2001 vital for investor confidence. For 2002, a more relaxed budget and ample cash reserves will allow for early pump priming.
Economics
Fundamentals
Fundamentals
Earnings Upgrades
Philippines Equity Price and Earnings Consensus
Fundamentals
Reforms
Conclusion
CURRENT LIABILITIES
Budget deficit but improving Peace and order issues e.g. terrorism Need for more developed capital markets and improvements in corporate governance. Need for greater job creation.
FIXED ASSETS
People labor pool, market. An open democracy. Strong financial system. An open investment environment. Strategic location; natural resources.
LONG-TERM LIABILITIES
High incidence of poverty. Low savings rate. Developing infrastructure. Vulnerable to natural calamities, weather patterns.
NET WORTH: The Philippines has begun to put its house in order.
Conclusion