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Corporation Bank
Performance Highlights
Particulars (` cr) NII Pre-prov. profit PAT 1QFY12 708 576 351 4QFY11 762 747 345 % chg (qoq) (7.1) (22.8) 1.8 1QFY11 698 620 334 % chg (yoy) 1.4 (7.1) 5.3
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Banking 6,722 0.8 815/446 8,278 10 17,059 5,138 CPBK.BO CRPBK@IN
`454 `566
12 Months
For 1QFY2012, Corporation Bank registered marginal net profit growth of 5.3% yoy (up 1.8% qoq) to `351cr, marginally above our estimates. The bank wrote back excess tax provision of ~`63cr during the quarter, leading to an effective tax rate of 14.1% for 1QFY2012. Asset quality remained stable with slippage ratio under 1% for 1QFY2012. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Loan book shrinks significantly; asset quality stable: During 1QFY2012, the banks advances declined substantially by 9.1% qoq (up by healthy 21.8% yoy) to `78,904cr, while deposits increased marginally by 0.9% qoq (up by healthy 29.4% yoy) to `117,782cr. The bank did not undertake any branch network expansion in 1QFY2012. Although the yield on advances increased by 89bp qoq to 11.2%, higher cost of deposits led to reported NIM declining by 38bp sequentially to 2.1%. During 1QFY2012, other income decreased by 40.9% qoq to `290cr due to a 58.1% qoq fall in treasury income to `34cr. On the assetquality front, the bank showed signs of improvement in 1QFY2012, with the slippage rate declining from 1.1% in 4QFY2011 to 0.8% in 1QFY2012. The bank has already shifted fully to system-based NPA recognition. Outlook and valuation: The banks low CASA ratio (~26%) has contributed to higher margin pressures, given high prevailing interest rates. However, currently the stock is trading at 0.7x FY2013E ABV, one of the cheapest in the industry, which we believe provides a margin of safety from the current macro headwinds. Also, the key positive for the bank is its proactive investment in modern distribution and payment systems, which has led to consistently faster CASA growth than peers. Further, with the switchover to system-based NPA recognition already out of the way, we expect relatively lower concerns to surface on the asset-quality front compared to peers. We recommend Buy on the stock with a target price of `566. Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 58.5 30.8 5.0 5.7
3m (8.2) (18.4)
FY2010
1,903 12.6 1,170 31.1 2.0 81.6 5.6 1.1 1.2 21.9
FY2011
2,940 54.5 1,413 20.8 2.4 95.4 4.8 1.0 1.1 21.9
FY2012E
2,942 0.1 1,363 (3.5) 2.0 92.0 4.9 0.8 0.9 17.8
FY2013E
3,364 14.3 1,492 9.4 1.9 100.7 4.5 0.7 0.8 17.0
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Shrinivas Bhutda
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
1QFY12 2,978 2,271 708 290 997 421 576 167 409 58 351 23.7 42.2 14.1 0.5
4QFY11 2,555 1,794 762 490 1,252 506 747 269 477 132 345 23.3 40.4 27.6 0.5
% chg (qoq) 16.6 26.6 (7.1) (40.9) (20.4) (16.8) (22.8) (37.9) (14.2) (56.2) 1.8 1.8
1QFY11 2,028 1,330 698 266 964 343 620 127 494 160 334 23.3 35.6 32.4 0.4
% chg (yoy) 46.9 70.7 1.4 8.9 3.5 22.6 (7.1) 32.1 (17.1) (63.9) 5.3 2.0
Estimates 809 296 1,105 412 693 212 481 144 337
Var. (%) (12.5) (2.2) (9.8) 2.1 (16.8) (21.1) (14.9) (60.0) 4.4
71.2
20.7 18.5
2.5
7.7 6.5
3.1 1.7
0.9
67.0
1,145
1,159
1,200 1,150
1,159
1,176
1,255
1,361
1,362
(1.8)
(9.1)
1,100 1,050
2.64
49.2
698
715
842
762
708
200 -
1.4
10.0 -
The bank shifted fully to system-based NPA recognition during FY2011, without taking the benefit of relaxation for smaller accounts till September 2011. We estimate the banks slippage ratio to improve from 1.3% in FY2011 to 1.1% in FY2013.
1.1 0.4
1.1 0.4
1.3 0.6
0.9 0.5
1.1 0.5
0.2
70.0 68.0
600 450 300 150 171 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 368 181 187 370 187 183
35.6
39.1
33.4
40.4
215
42.2
25.0
0.5 -
Investment arguments
Modern, cost-efficient network to support moderate CASA growth
During FY200711, growth in the banks average CASA deposits was robust relative to peers at 20.4%. We believe the banks efficient and expanding network, supported by a consistent track record in early adoption of emerging technologies, creates a positive traction in its deposit franchise, which is tempered mainly by substantial competition from larger banks.
Low operating cost, superior asset quality owing to corporate, urban-centric business
Large corporates comprise ~38% of the banks credit book, leading to relatively low yield on advances, but simultaneously offering superior asset quality to the bank. Corporation Bank is also among the most cost-efficient PSU banks, both in terms of opex/average assets as well as branch and employee productivity.
Earlier estimates FY2012 18.0 18.0 24.9 2.2 1.7 15.0 1.3 73.0 FY2013 19.0 19.0 23.6 2.1 11.5 15.0 15.0 1.3 75.0
Revised estimates FY2012 13.0 14.0 25.7 2.0 (3.3) 15.0 1.1 75.0 FY2013 18.0 18.0 24.7 1.9 13.7 15.0 15.0 1.1 75.0
FY2013 Earlier estimates 3,698 1,501 5,199 2,017 3,182 826 2,356 764 1,592 Revised Var. (%) estimates 3,364 1,457 4,821 2,017 2,804 596 2,208 716 1,492 (9.0) (2.9) (7.3) (11.9) (27.8) (6.3) (6.3) (6.3)
Earlier estimates 3,284 1,347 4,631 1,754 2,877 757 2,120 636 1,484
Revised Var. (%) estimates 2,942 1,281 4,223 1,754 2,469 627 1,843 479 1,363 (10.4) (4.9) (8.8) (14.2) (17.3) (13.1) (24.7) (8.1)
Dec-03
Aug-08
Dec-10
Apr-06
Jul-04
Mar-02
Mar-09
Feb-05
Jul-11
May-03
Nov-06
May-10
Feb-12
Oct-02
Sep-05
Oct-09
Jun-07
Jan-08
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), # Without adjusting for SASF
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) Net Interest Income - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) FY08 1,443 4.8 700 9.4 2,143 6.2 892 11.0 1,251 3.1 186 (53.3) 1,065 30.5 330 31.0 735 37.1 FY09 1,691 17.2 1,107 58.2 2,798 30.6 1,047 17.3 1,752 40.0 365 96.8 1,386 30.1 493 35.6 893 21.5 FY10 1,903 12.6 1,493 34.9 3,397 21.4 1,260 20.4 2,137 22.0 474 29.8 1,662 19.9 492 29.6 1,170 31.1 FY11 2,940 54.5 1,324 (11.3) 4,264 25.5 1,642 30.3 2,622 22.7 689 45.2 1,934 16.3 520 26.9 1,413 20.8 FY12E 2,942 0.1 1,281 (3.3) 4,223 (1.0) 1,754 6.8 2,469 (5.8) 627 (9.0) 1,843 (4.7) 479 26.0 1,363 (3.5) FY13E 3,364 14.3 1,457 13.7 4,821 14.2 2,017 15.0 2,804 13.6 596 (4.9) 2,208 19.8 716 32.4 1,492 9.4
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserve & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash Balances Bank Balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY08 143 4,085 55,424 30.9 2,138 800 3,867 66,458 7,104 1,812 16,512 39,186 30.8 272 1,572 66,458 26.1 FY09 143 4,753 73,984 33.5 2,072 2,738 3,215 86,906 5,591 4,949 24,938 48,512 23.8 299 2,617 86,906 30.8 FY10 143 5,631 92,734 25.3 4,290 4,788 4,081 111,667 8,835 1,957 34,523 63,203 30.3 293 2,857 111,667 28.5 FY11 148 6,990 116,748 25.9 10,628 5,338 3,658 143,509 8,142 2,250 43,453 86,850 37.4 331 2,482 143,509 28.5 FY12E 148 8,035 133,092 14.0 10,505 6,031 3,802 161,613 8,651 3,232 48,432 98,141 13.0 362 2,795 161,613 12.6 FY13E 148 9,173 157,049 18.0 12,396 7,117 4,821 190,704 10,208 3,814 57,163 115,806 18.0 414 3,298 190,704 18.0
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage RoE 2.4 0.3 2.1 0.2 2.3 0.9 3.3 1.5 1.8 0.6 1.2 14.9 18.4 2.2 0.5 1.7 0.6 2.3 0.9 3.2 1.4 1.8 0.6 1.2 16.8 19.6 1.9 0.5 1.4 0.6 2.1 0.9 2.9 1.3 1.7 0.5 1.2 18.6 21.9 2.3 0.5 1.8 0.2 1.9 0.9 2.8 1.3 1.5 0.4 1.1 19.8 21.9 1.9 0.4 1.5 0.0 1.6 0.8 2.4 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.9 19.9 17.8 1.9 0.3 1.6 0.0 1.6 0.8 2.4 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.8 20.1 17.0 8.9 1.5 2.3 7.3 1.3 2.8 5.6 1.1 3.6 4.8 1.0 4.4 4.9 0.8 4.1 4.5 0.7 4.5 51.2 294.8 10.5 62.2 341.1 12.5 81.6 398.3 16.5 95.4 466.4 20.0 92.0 552.4 18.5 100.7 629.3 20.5 1.5 0.3 0.6 0.2 77.1 1.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 74.2 1.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 80.8 0.9 0.5 1.3 0.4 74.7 1.5 0.6 1.1 0.3 75.0 1.9 0.6 1.1 0.3 75.0 35.0 70.7 12.1 9.6 31.4 65.6 12.7 8.3 28.6 68.2 14.4 8.7 26.0 74.4 13.3 8.2 25.7 73.7 14.3 8.8 24.7 73.7 14.0 8.4 2.5 41.6 1.2 18.4 2.3 37.4 1.2 19.6 2.0 37.1 1.2 21.9 2.4 38.5 1.1 21.9 2.0 41.5 0.9 17.8 1.9 41.8 0.8 17.0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
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Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Corporation Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
10