Jim Harlan for Congress

Executive Summary
Louisiana Congressional District 1
Tracking Poll – September 18-21, 2008
Methodology

Four hundred likely voters in Congressional District One, Louisiana were interviewed in a random
sample taken September 18-21, 2008. Respondents were screened for voter registration and their
likelihood of voting in the 2008 Presidential election. The sample was balanced according to all known
demographic factors. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The margin of error for this survey
is ± 4.9%, with a 95% confidence level.

Overall Status of the Race: Harlan vs. Scalise

ƒ Jim Harlan now has freshman Congressman Steve Scalise on the ropes. Scalise is 8 points
below 50%, a devastating position for any incumbent but a particularly big problem for Scalise
who has only been in office since the Spring of 2008 and only won with 33,000 total votes.

ƒ Harlan has moved to within 11 points of Scalise after starting from 53 points behind.

ƒ Harlan’s focus on hurricane protection and recovery is a hot button for this district that simply
doesn’t exist in other districts across America. Scalise’s ethical problems are significant and
potentially disqualifying.

ƒ Steve Scalise’s image has been significantly damaged by the communications of the
Harlan campaign.

June September

Steve Scalise 61% favorable 44% favorable

13% unfavorable 24% unfavorable

The race, at first considered a long shot, has now moved within
striking distance for Jim Harlan.
If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for. . .

June September

Republican Steve Scalise 68% 42%

Democrat Jim Harlan 15% 31%
undecided 17% 26
1
Additional Notes and Data Points:

ƒ PARTISANSHIP LESS A FACTOR: Partisanship is much less of a factor in this race than the
perception of competence. The communication from the Harlan campaign is now effectively
drawing the contrast between an independent-minded businessman and a career politician who
represents the electorates’ worst perceptions of a self-interested, corrupt politician.

ƒ HARLAN THE PROBLEM SOLVER + HURRICANE PROTECTION WORKS: The poll now
shows that by a 5-to-1 margin the voters believe that the term “problem solver” is a good
description of Democrat Jim Harlan. In addition, by a 5-to-1 margin, the voters believe that
Democrat Jim Harlan has a plan for hurricane protection for this area of the state.

ƒ SCALISE IS WEAK: Since Steve Scalise won this Congressional district with only 33,000 total
votes, his depth of support is shallow. Therefore, as the voters have learned about his abuse of
power and support of special interests, they find him unacceptable as a candidate.

ƒ HARLAN CAMPAIGN EFFORT IS COMPREHENSIVE: The Harlan campaign plan going

forward reflects a strongly funded effort with major television, radio, direct mail and field
components. Scalise’s campaign appears to be moribund and has yet to communicate at all.
Scalise now has a very difficult task. He must attempt to rebuild his own profile and then attempt
to stop the surging Harlan.

ƒ CHILDER’S REPEAT?: It is worth nothing that several members of the Harlan team were
involved in the remarkable victory of Travis Childers in Mississippi’s 1st District earlier this year.
A similar dynamic appears to be forming in Louisiana’s 1st District. Both Harlan and Childers are
pro-life, pro-gun and fiscally conservative. Even though both districts were historically safe
Republican districts the races feature a strong Democratic candidate with independent
credentials verses a weak Republican in a time where historical turnout and huge societal
pressures are breaking old partisan alliances.

ƒ PICK UP OPPORTUNITY: This district now represents a major pick up opportunity for the
Democrats. If the current trends continue, Jim Harlan is in a strong position to defeat
Congressman Scalise and become the next Congressman in Louisiana’s 1st District.