National Ambitions for Power Generation in the UK Nuclear Technologies

Ric Parker
17th March 2010
2010 Rolls-Royce plc The information in this document is the property of Rolls-Royce plc and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Rolls-Royce plc. This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Rolls-Royce plc, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Rolls-Royce plc or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.

Outline

Role of Nuclear in UK Generating Mix Significance for Timing of Nuclear New-build UK Focus in Technology Development Next Generation of Nuclear Power Plants Opportunities for UK Industry UK R&D Programme to Support New Build Beyond UK New-build Civil Nuclear and Rolls-Royce Beyond Gen III Summary

Role of Nuclear in UK Generating Mix

The CBI Decision Time Report July 2009

Balanced Pathway Scenario FGD and NOx-abated Almost all of the UKs ageing plants capable of coal-fired and nuclear power complying with the revised stations will be retired by 2020 LCPD run until after 2020 CBI assumes delays in Greater encouragement of licensing /authorisation of new CCS through nuclear stations will mean demonstrator programmes these may not be commissioned until post 2020 Scaling back the 2020 target for renewables, reducing the quantity of wind note 1:This level of plant retirement significantly exceeds most previous projections. Business as Usual Scenario

Significance for composition UK generating mix (2030)

CO2 emissions from UK powergen 45% lower in 2030 compared with BAU note 1 Gas fired capacity rises to 36 % Nuclear capacity increased to 34 % Power Prices lower and volatility reduced Delivers further CO2 abatement over medium term compared to BAU

Nuclear capacity constrained to 20 % Gas imports in 2030 rise to 100 BCM with greater gas infrastructure needs

note 1 CBI projects that CO2 emissions from Balanced Pathway will amount to 35 MT as compared with 60 MT for BAU

UK Historical Technology Development

UK currently has 19 nuclear reactors, totalling 11 GWe of capacity This fleet is characterised by unique reactor designs: 15 Advanced Gas-cooled Reactors (AGRs) 2 Magnox stations Only a single UK nuclear power plant (Sizewell B, Pressurised Water Reactor) completed in 1995 can be considered of modern design By 2020, electricity from these stations reduced to 7 % of UK capacity from current 15-20% (all except Sizewell B closed by 2023) Only Sizewell B offers scope for significant life extension

UK nuclear R&D has been dominated by clean-up and decommissioning of existing plant.

Next Generation of Nuclear Plants

Next generation of UK nuclear stations: HMG approval for 10 sites in England and Wales (first by 2017) UKs proposed new build programme will use existing Generation III or III+ reactor designs The most likely designs for early plants in the next generation include: Westinghouse 1,150 MWe AP1000TM Pressurised Water Reactor (PWR) AREVA 1,600 MWe European Pressurised water Reactor (EPR) design Assessment of non-site-specific issues associated with the above designs is expected to be completed in Q2 2011.

Candidate Reactor Designs

Both of the most likely designs are held by non-UK OEMs The AREVA EPRTM design is currently being utilised for the following new nuclear plants under construction: - Flamanville 3, France - Olkiluoto Unit 3, Finland China has officially adopted the Westinghouse AP1000 as a standard for inland nuclear projects - Sanmen 6 x 1,150 MW units, Zhejang - Haiyan 6 x 1, 150 MW, Shandong
AREVA Westinghouse

Opportunities for UK Industry

A report1 (February 2009) examined the capability and capacity of the supply chain for a UK new civil nuclear build programme this concluded that there will be significant opportunities for UKbased companies: Pre-Build (Design) including reactor plantsystem module and product definition, instrumentation and control, electrical systems, etc. Project Management Civil Construction Manufacturing, including large forgings, other forgings and castings, valves, pumps, cables, etc. Operation and Decommissioning Nuclear engineering skills gaps were identified as a weakness for the UKs new-build, nuclear supply chain.
Note 1: Supply Chain for a UK Nuclear New Build Programme, Dr Stephen A Court, National Metals Technology Centre (NAMTEC) submitted to Department for Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (BERR)

UK R&D Programme to Support New Build

The UK has a unique opportunity to re-build the nuclear industry during the next 15 years. The objectives of a UK R&D Programme would be: To develop skills in the short term that will help UK industry compete for activities associated with new build. To ensure that the build programme in the UK has the key skills to make it successful. To develop intellectual property in key areas that will provide long-term access to high-value manufacture and export markets Be match fit for generators beyond Gen III

Potential Work-Streams for UK Nuclear R&D Programme

To reduce costs and risks involved in new build and licensing. - modelling of plant transient behaviour - external hazard assessment e.g. seismic design - control and instrumentation To ensure that plants operate at the maximum safety and capacity - Equipment Health Management (EHM), novel sensors, knowledge management techniques, use of virtual plant models to assist in maintenance To ensure long term safety and availability of plants - development of improved materials and lifing To ensure a sustainable waste management

Today nuclear power accounts for 16% of the worlds electricity production

Central Eastern Europe (82) Europe (170)

Russia (74) China (124)

North America (167)

India (52)

Japan (66)

South America (14)

South Africa (9)

Rest of Asia (57)

Region (Total No.)

Operational reactors (2009) Total number 441

New Build (2010-2030) Total number 389

The world, new-build market is worth ~850Bn to 2030 with the support market contributing a further ~950Bn
New Build Current fleet support New Build support

Bn M

New Build Support

Source: Rolls-Royce WEO, WNA

Nuclear Power Plant market 2010-2030 (Bn)

Civil Nuclear and Rolls-Royce

Rolls-Royce is well-positioned with skills, capabilities and facilities for participation in UK civil nuclear new build Over 50 years of nuclear engineering experience Rolls-Royce has considerable capability UK submarines: water reactor engineering, instrumentation and control systems. Data Systems and Solutions: nuclear services in USA and mainland Europe Structuring high value-added supply chains ~2000 nuclear engineers/specialists

Gen IV GOFastR Gas-cOoled Fast Reactors

6m 3-year EU FP7 funded programme with 21 partners. Breeder reactor technology using U-238 and Pu-239 as fuel. High temperature operation (up to 950 reactor C outlet temperature). > 45% thermal efficiency. Single phase, inert primary coolant. Potential to burn long-lived minor actinides. Rolls-Royce areas of interest: Power conversion systems system design, component selection and performance. High temperature primary circuit heat exchanger technology.

Summary
New nuclear build has a significant potential for meeting UK GHG and energy security targets Delivery of technology/systems in time to match retirements is key Recent nuclear R&D focus on clean-up and decommissioning of existing unique reactor designs Timing of new UK nuclear stations makes selection of preexisting Gen III or III+ designs essential Candidate reactor designs already exist from overseas suppliers, but considerable opportunities exist for UK industry across design, construction, operation and decommissioning A targeted UK R&D programme to support new build will be essential if UK companies are to benefit This will not stop at Gen III; we need to be match-fit for Gen IV