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Energy Technology Perspectives Scenarios & Strategies to 2050, 484 pages, ISBN 926410982X
/, 2006
, . http://www.iea.org/w/bookshop/add.aspx?id=255
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International Energy Agency (IEA), Head of Publication Service, 9 rue de la Federation, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France.
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2050 . /, WWF ( , . 1 . , 2 . . .:
2007. 586 .
www.wwf.ru
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WWF ,
Swedish Acid Rain Secretariat. www.inforient.ru. WWF
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+7 495 727 09 38
-mail: russia@wwf.ru


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Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP),
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Concentrating Solar Power and Chemical Energy
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C .

1


2050 .

1
2

2050 .:
, 2

12

C
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

2050 .
1

41

2 2050 .:
, 2

44

()
TECH Plus. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
2: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
TECH Plus. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
TECH Plus: 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

53
56
59
60
63
68

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

73
75
79
80

2 . . . . . . . . . 82
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109

13

119

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
(NGCC). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(SCSC) (USCSC)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(IGCC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(FBC PFBC). . . . . .
2 (CCS). . . . . . . . . . . .

134
136
137
139
139

. . . . . . . 141
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
: III III+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
: IV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158

( ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
.168
, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
. . . . . . . . . . 177
. . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183

14

.185
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
2 (CCS) . . . . 198

201

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
2 . . . . . 204
. . . . . . . . . . 207
:
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
: . .
. . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

209
209
212
216
217

2 (CCS):
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230
2 . . . . . . . 230
2. . . . . 233
:
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245

15


. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
: . . . . . 279
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295
:
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 296..
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 296
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299
5

305

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318
: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 320
- :
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323
- : . . . . . . . 325
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 328
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 343
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 352
. . . . . . . . . . . . . 354

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355
, . . 358
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 373
. . . . . . 380
, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393
6 ,

401

16

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 402
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 404
. . . . . . . . . . . 407

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 409
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 412
, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 420
: , ,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 420
: . . 422
:
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 424
:
- .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 427
:
.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 430
:
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 432
.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 433
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 436
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 439
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 440
. . . . . . . . 446
: .. . . . 446
, :
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 448
: .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 449
: . . . . . . . . . . . . . 451
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 452
.. . . . . . . . 456
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 458
: .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 459
: . . . . . . . . . . . . . 461
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .462
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 462
.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 464
. . . . . . . . . 465
.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 467
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 468
. . . . . . . . . . . . . 468

17

.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 469..
7

473

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474
2. . . . . 477
.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 481
. . . 492
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 494
.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 496
. . . . . 497

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 499
2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 504
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 504
.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 506
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 514
- .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 518
.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 522
.. . . . . . . . . . 524
.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 526
.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 529
. . . . . . . . . 529
.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 529
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 531
2
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 537
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 538
.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 545
A 

549

553

C , ,

555

568

18

2050 .:
, 2

2.1 2 ,
TECH Plus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
2.2 2
TECH Plus ( 2050 .) .53
2.3 2 (
2050 .) . .54
2.4 2 ,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
2.5 : ,
, 20032050 . . . . 60
2.6 2 ,
, CCS ,
20032050 . (
). . . .62
2.7 2
, 20032050 . (

) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
2.8 2
, 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
2.9
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
2.10
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
2.11
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
2.12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
2.13 :
, CCS, 20032050 .. . . . . . . . . . 74
2.14 : 2003, 2030, 2050 . . . .76
2.15 , 2050 .. . . . . . 77
2.16 ,
20032050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
2.17 ,
20032050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
2.18 , 20032050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
2.19
(20032050 .) (2003, 2030,
2050 .) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

19

2.20 - ,
, 2003, 2030 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
2.21 . .83
2.22
, 2003, 2030 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
2.23 ,
20032050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
2.24
, 20032050 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
2.25
, 2050 . . . . . . 92
2.26 2
, 20032050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
2.27 2
, 2003 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
2.28 2
, 20032050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
2.29
TECH Plus, 20032050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
2.30
, 20032050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
2.31 2
TECH Plus, 20032050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
2.32 2
, 2003 . . . . 100
2.33
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
2.34
. . . . 102
2.35 -
. . . . . . . . . . . . 104
2.36
, 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
2.37 , 2050 .
( ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
2.38
, 2050
( ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.39 2
. 20032050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
2.40 . .110
2.41 2
2003 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

20

2.42 2
2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
2.43 2
2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
3

3.1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
3.2
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
3.3
2 2050 .
( CCS ) . . 132
3.4
. . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
3.5
2 CCS
2050 . ( ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
3.6
. . . . . . . . . . . . 144
3.7
2 CCS, 2050 . (
) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
3.8
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
3.9
2 CCS, 2050 .
( ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
3.10
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
3.11 ,
2 , 2050 .
( ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
3.12 , :
. . . . . . . . 171
3.13 2
, 2050 . ( ) . .188
3.14
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
4

201

4.1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
4.2 , 19922003 . . . . . . . 212
4.3 2 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216

21

4.4
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
4.5
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
4.6
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
4.7
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
4.8
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
4.9
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
4.10 , 2 (CCS).231
4.11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263
4.12 PV . . . . . . . . . . 268
4.13 , 1950-2000 . . 279
4.14 , 2003 . . . . 281
5

305

5.1 , 2003 . . . 307


5.2
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313
5.3
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 314
5.4

2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 317
5.5 . .325
5.6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 343
5.7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 349
5.8 :
, 19612004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 350
5.9 () . . . . . . . . . . . . 356
5.10 . . . . . . . . . . 383
5.11 . . . . . . . 384
5.12 . . 391
5.13 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397
6

401

6.1
, 1973-2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 404
6.2
, 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 405

22

6.3
IEA-113 . . . . . . 406
6.4 IEA-11,
1973-1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 406
6.5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 412
6.6
: , , . . 414
6.7
, , . . . . . . . 415
6.8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 416
6.9 . . . . . . . . . . 419
6.10 . . .422
6.11 . . 443
6.12
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 443
6.13 PV ,
19922003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 463
6.14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 466
7
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
7.7
7.8
7.9
7.10
7.11
7.12

473

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 476
, 1971 2003 . . .480
2 , 2003 . . . 481
,
1970 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 483
,
1970-2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 486
2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 486
, 2003 . . . . . . . . 487

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 488

, 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 490
2
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 498

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 500
, 19922003 . . 532

.1 , IEA ETCP ( 2006 .) . . . . 549

23

2050 .:
, 2

44

2.1 TECH Plus . . . . . . . . . . . . 49


2.2 2
TECH Plus 2050 . ( ) .57
2.3
, TECH Plus, 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
2.4 2 ,
CCS, 2003 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
2.5
, 20052050 . ( ). . . . . 65
2.6
, CCS TECH Plus, 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
2.7 . . . . . . . . . 84
2.8
, 2050 . . . 85
2.9 2 , 2003 2050 . . . . . . . . 85
2.10 (2050 .)
20032050 .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
2.11 .. 104
2.12
( ). . . . . . . . . . . . 106
2.13
2050 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
3

3.1 ,
TECH Plus,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.2
2
( ). . . . . .
3.3 2

( ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.4 2
TECH Plus (
2 ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

127

133

143

155

24

3.5 2 TECH Plus



( ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
3.6 2
,
( ). . . . 171
3.7 2
(
) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188
4
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
4.10
4.11
4.12
4.13
4.14
4.15
4.16
4.17
4.18
5


. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205
CO2 ( CO2) . . 207
, 2003 . (%) . . 210
,
2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
(.)
(%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
-
( ) . . . . . . . . . . . 230
2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242
,
2003 . (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245

(%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249
,
( ) . . . . 254
, . . 258

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282
. . 282

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301

5.1 (%) . . . 341


5.2 :
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 360

25

5.3 :
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.4 , :
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.5 : . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.6 : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.7 : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7

364
365
375
387
388

7.1
(/), 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 479
7.2
. . . . . . 485
7.3 . . . . . . . . 493
7.4
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 493
7.5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 494
7.6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 496
7.7 . . . 497
7.8
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 500
7.9 - . . 501
7.10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 503
7.11
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 503
7.12
2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 504
7.13
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 506
7.14 2
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 513
7.15
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 513
7.16 , 2003 . . . . . . . 514
7.17 . . . . . 515
7.18 . . . . . . . . . 516
7.19 . . . . . . . . . . . . 518
7.20 -
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 519
7.21 - . . 521
7.22 . . . .523
7.23 . . 526

26

7.24
, 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 527
7.25
, 2004 ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 528
7.26
.... . . . . . . . . . . . . . 529
7.27 . . . . . . . . . 531
7.28 :
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 536
7.29 . . . 537
7.30 2
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 537
7.31 . . 544
7.32
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 545
7.33 . . 545
B
B.1
B.2

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 553
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 554

27

:

,
()
(
G
8) 2005 . .
, , .
, . ,

, .
, .
. 2050 .
, , .


2050 .
.
.
CO2 20%. ,
2005 .,
CO2 25
(
). 2030 . , . , ,
CO2 2050 . 2,5 .
. - , .
,
.
.

28

. (ACT, Accelerated Technology), , , . , CO2 2050 .,


.
, 2050 . .

,
. 56% .

ACT

:

, - ;

,
,
,
CO2 (CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage);
 .
, ACT


. ,
( ) 2050 . , . , .
ACT ,
,
.
.
, (
, ) CO2. .
. - :
,
( , -

29

),
. , TECH Plus,
,
.
, ACT,
,
. ,
25
CO2 , . : ,
CO2
2006 . 25
CO2 ,
, 0,02 /
0,07 .
CO2 25 . , - . - , ,
,
. , .
50
, .
ACT
,
,
CCS

. , ,
. -, , 1050 . -,

. , . ,
ACT.

,
-
, . , -

30

.
, - . ,
.
70%
, .
, , . .
, . 95%.
3040% , . ,
.
3060%.
, ,
.
10%
- , , .
, ,
- .

CO2. : , , ,
; ;
; .
CO2 (26%), , (25%), (18%).
,
2 , :
,
; ; .

.
,
2.
.

31

. , .
. ,
.
, .

. ACT , , - 2050 . 1733% .
2 2050 . 45
53% . ,
2050 . 20% ( ), CO2 20%
ACT.

CO2

CO2 (CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage) CO2 , .


CO2, , .
, 2030 . 25 CO2. ,
CO2
, ,
.
CO2
.
,
2, , .
,
. , 2.
. , ,
.

32

ACT ,
2 2 2050 . 20 28%
.
2
2 , , .
2 2 ,
. ,
.
30% ,
, 2. CO2
10%14% , .


ACT 23 28% 2050 . ,
2003 .
, , ,
.
1/ 2,
. .
60%.
2.

, .


2.
. 1990- .
, . .
, , .
: ; ,
;
.
.
,
, 2. ACT ,

2050 . 16 19%.
2 2050 . 6

33

10%. , 6,7%, , . TECH Plus


22,2%.


2050 . ,
, , , 2 ACT.
916%. 18%. 2050 . 34%. ,
, 2050 . 23%.
, TECH Plus ,
2050 . 35%.

. , -. ACT ,
.
,
. ,
.
- . , 1 / 0,04 ,
. , . , 2030 .
. , ,
.
. ACT ,
. , .

. ,
. .
, CO2.
1970- .

34

, . .

.
,
. , , .
. 2050 .
2%.



, , . , ,
. (10% 90% ).
, ,
. ,
.
, . , , .
.
,
, -
.
. , ,
, .
ACT , 2 6%, .
TECH

Plus
300 2050 .
2 1500 .
TECH
Plus

35% , 2050 . ACT


13%, 3%.
, 2050 .
.

35

2050 .
, ACT, CO2 2050 .
,
CO2 . , CO2
2050 . XXI .
ACT ,
CO2 2050 . ,
.
( TECH Plus), 2050 . CO2
16%. ,
.
TECH
Plus

,
XXI .


ACT
, ACT, . .
, . . ,
.
. ,
, .

CO2 ,

.
ACT ,
, , , , .
.
.
.
, , , .

36


, , . . ,
, , .
, .
. , .

. , . ,
,
.
: , , , , , .
. .


-
- ()
, .
. ,
. ,
.
, - , , .
, . ,
1970- .,
.
ACT, . , ,
, . ,

. , .

37


, .

. . ,
. ,
. , ,
.
, , .
CO2.
, 2050 .,
.
CCS
2015 . 10 ,
.
500 1 . ,

. ,
.
.

(
), , . ,
CCS ,
CO2. ACT , 2050 .
2 25 . ,
, . ,
. ,
,
CO2 .


,
, -

38

. ,
, .
.


2050 .
. , ,
. , ,

. , , .
, , . ,
, .

2050 .:
, 2



2050 .

40

2050 .

41

.
, ,
, .
, .
.
, , , , ,
. .
(World Energy Outlook, 2005) , , 2030 . CO2 50%, 45%. 85% . CO2
.
,
CO2 28%.
,
, .
() 2005 . (G8)
: ,
,
, , .
,
2005 ., . :

, ;
,
; .

42

2050 .

, G8 ,
.
, ,
.
, .
G

8 , , .
, , ,
.
, .
5000 39
(), , 40 (IA, Implementing
Agreements).
. A.
:


, ,
- ;
 ;
 .
.
I: 2050 .
2 2050 .: (ACT), ,
, .
, ,
. (TECH Plus)

. 3 -

43


.

II
:
. .
, , , .
, , .

44

2050 .

 2050 .:

, 2



2 2050 .
.
 CO2,
, ,
. 2 ,
CO2 137% ( 24,5 2003 .
58 2050 ).
.
 2050 . 3 , 2003 .;
138%, 65%.
-
-
.


.
 (ACT) ,

2050 . CO2
.

,
- ,
,
, , (
CO2 CCS),
.
 , 2050 .
66 71%. , ( ,
CCS) 2050 .
, . ,
.

2 ACT 31 53%;

45

2 0 5 0 .

2 20 28% ( ,
); 11 16%;
5 16%;
2 10%; 6%;
1 3%.
 ACT , 2050 .

24% .
.
20032050 .
2 . ,
.
56% .

, ,
-
.
 (TECH Plus)

, .
CO2 2050 . 16%
. 2050 . 34%
,
.

2050 .
 ACT, 2050 . CO2
.
CO2 . , CO2
. ACT ,
2050 .
. ,
. TECH Plus
,
XXI .

46

2050 .


(ACT) TECH Plus
(WEO 2005),
, , , CO2 24,5
2003 . 37,4 2030 .
, .
CO2 2030 . 16% , . , 28% . ,
, - 2030 .
. CO2 , , ,
.
,
2, . ,

20 .
ACT ,
, .
. ACT
(TECH Plus).

ACT :


, ;
 , ,
;
 , ,
. ,
;

47

2 0 5 0 .

 CO2 . , ACT
, 2
25 . ACT 2030 . , .
, , , , ,
;
 , .
, , .
-1 ,
, .
.
, , .
ACT : (1)
; (2) ; (3) , CO2 (CCS)
2050 .; (4)

.
(
, ).
, . ,
. , . ,
,
.
. ,

TECH

Plus
, .

ACT
ACT , . 1

, .

48

2050 .

, , .
, .
.
;
 2 ,
;


(,
);

 , , ;
 ,
- ;
 . , , , ;

.
, .

ACT
. , ,
.

ACT
- ,
.

ACT CCS
2 , ,
.

49

2 0 5 0 .

ACT
, ,
. 0,3% ,
. , ,
, , .

TECH Plus
TECH

Plus
. , , .
, , . , .
, , . 2050 .
,
(FCVs, Fuel Cell Vehicles).
( ). ,
,
.
2.1

 TECH Plus

CCS

CCS

TECH Plus

50

2.1

2050 .

(ETP)
(WEO, 2005). 2030
2050 .
. -
2030 . 40 ,
60100 . 2030 .
, .
,
. , 2030 .
39 ( 2004 .), 2050 . 60 . , , . ,
, 2030 .

.
TECH Plus , (. 2.1). ,
2,9% 20032050 .
2% : 1%
4,3% .
TECH Plus .
,
, (. 2.2).
, TECH Plus . ,
, ,
.

2
CO2
( 2.1).
(WEO, 2005) , CO2
24,5 2003 . 37,4 2030 .
ETP ,
2050 . 2 58 . ,
CO2 20032050 . 137%.

51

2.2

2 0 5 0 .

(ETP). 15
. 1000 .
ETP MARKAL (Fishbone and Abilock, 1981). MARKAL
30 (ETSAP) (ETSAP, 2003).
ETP-MARKAL ,
,
, .
ETP , - . , .
.

2.
.

20032050 . 93%: 3646 ( ..)
7027 .. 3. 138%, 2244 . 2003 .
5349 .. 2050 . 192%, 2584
.. 2003 . 7532 ... 2050 .
. , 50
.
CO2.

2050 . ( 6% , 2003 .)4. 2 9 27%
2003 . ( 2.1).
TECH Plus CO2 2050 . ,
2003 . ,

CCS .

, .
4

2
2003 . CO2 20032005 . 8%,
, 2005 .
2
3

52

2050 .

( ,
, , ) . , .
. CO2 2050 . 21% , ,
16% , 2003 .
2.1

 CO2 ,
TECH Plus



, 2050 .

















u










8&0

CCS

5&$)

1MVT


2 ,
.
( ) . 2050 . 27% ,
( 20%
). 2050 .
5126.. ( 27% , , 41%
, 2003 .). 2050 . 5349 .., ACT 3 746 ..
4 513 .. 2050 . 30%
, , 16% .
2050 . 7 532 .., 5572% .

CCS
2111 .., 3 417 ..

53

2 0 5 0 .

TECH Plus
. , 2050 .
4 135 .., 13% , 2003 ., 41% ,
. 2050 . 3 697 ..,
31% , . 2050 . 2 655 .., 65% , .

2:

2
( 2.2 2.3). 4553%
( 2.2). 31%.
2.2

 CO2 TECH
Plus ( 2050)6





 
$$4











5&$)

1MVT



$$4











CO2 (53% 2).




( 2
2003 .). , 2 20032050 .
(. 2.2 2.3, 2.2.)
, ,
.
6

CO2,
, , - . , , .
, - .
.
5

54

2050 .

2050 .
3280 .. (23%) , .
: 24% , 23% , 18% , 34% .

TECH

Plus
, 2 39%.

, . , TECH

Plus

2% .


2 57%, 13% (
)7. (
) . 6% ()
10% ( CCS).
9% () 16% ( CCS

). 5%.
2.3

 CO2 (
2050 .)






$$4














 



 

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45% 2.
7

, CCS.

55

2 0 5 0 .

,
. ,
.
.
.

C CO2

CO2 ,
20 28% CO2 ( CCS).
CCS
,
3 5% CO2 (
), 4 6%. CCS ,
12 18% CO2.


6 10%
CO2 ( ).
2050 . 9%, 2 , . -
( 1%).
2050 . 25% ( ) 19% (), - . 2050 .
25% ( ) 32% ().
16% 2003 .
21% 2050 . (), . .
, , , .
2050 . 8% ( ) 12% (). -
15 18%. ,
. ,
( ), , .

, ,
,
.

56

2050 .

, 2
6%. .
TECH Plus 2050 .
300 .. 2 800 ..
2 700 ..
CO2 0,6 ,
500 CO2 .
2050 . 7%
- .
TECH Plus 34%
, 13% ,
, 3% , . TECH Plus
(
) 20032050 . 20%, (
) 5%.
, , TECH Plus
, .
TECH Plus .

2

2 . . ,
, . 0,3%
, . 2050 . 2
20% ,
, 27% , 2003 .
14%. 44% , 21% ( CCS), 14% (4%
), 10% .
( )
.

57

2.2

2 0 5 0 .

 CO2 TECH
Plus 2050 . ( )

CO2 2050 . , 2


CCS

TECH Plus

1623

1675

1804

1974

280

328

821

364

263

1922
513

593
506

2133
23

2928
582

1968
382

2677
464

537

557

97

725

567

577

1966

2060

1397

3192

1927

2676

3983
1043
1460

4450
1043
1460

4471
1043
1460

0
0
0

4787
1123
1480

4370
1727
1460

2484

2324

2327

1560

2562

2746

1794

1794

1794

1805

1611

2306

1523

14478

14612

14589

15036

8223

14658

32053

31125

31283

28324

26807

37420

25969

26897

26738

29698

31214

20602

+6%

+10%

+9%

+21%

+27%

-16%





CCS
CCS
CCS

2
2050 .
2
2003 .

1623

1445

251

CO2 2050 .

CCS

TECH Plus





CCS
CCS
CCS





5,1

4,6

5,2

5,9

6,7

5,3

0,8

0,9

1,0

2,9

1,4

0,7

6,0
1,6

1,9
1,6

6,8
0,1

10,3
2,1

7,3
1,4

7,2
1,2

1,7

1,8

0,3

2,6

2,1

1,5

6,1

6,6

4,5

11,3

7,2

7,2

12,4
3,3
4,6

14,3
3,4
4,7

14,3
3,3
4,7

0,0
0,0
0,0

17,9
4,2
5,5

11,7
4,6
3,9

7,7

7,5

7,4

5,5

9,6

7,3

5,6

5,8

5,7

6,4

6,0

6,2

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

4,1

45,2

46,9

46,6

53,1

30,7

39,2

100

100

100

100

100

100

58

2050 .

CCS CO2 2050 . 21% ,


2003 . CCS
10 . ,
, (. 2.3).
CO2 ,
.

20032050 . 18% (103% ). 10% 2050 . (17% ). , CCS, .
2 2050 . 4% ,
, 10% , 2003 .
CO2
2050 . 3%. , , ,
( CCS), .
CO2 2050 . 16% 2003 .
20032050 . 3%, 5%.
202%, ( ) 307%.
2.3

CCS
c CCS

 ,
TECH Plus, 2050 .


30,4
29,5
14,3
13,3
16,1
16,2
2,3
2,2
25,7
26,9
9,8
18,0
15,5
14,0
4,6
3,0

47,1
47,1
0,0
3,3
27,6
6,7
9,5
2,0

26,9
12,6
14,3
2,3
22,6
16,8
15,4
4,5

3,9

11,4

11,8

100,0

100,0

100,0

CCS

TECH
Plus

16,5
16,5
0,0
2,0
28,2
19,0
16,0
4,8

27,6
12,4
15,2
2,0
25,4
16,0
13,4
4,4

20,9
5,7
15,2
2,2
19,5
22,2
15,3
5,1

6,4

13,5

11,2

14,8

100,0

100,0

100,0

100,0

59

2.4

2 0 5 0 .

 CO2 ,












































8&0



CO2 .


CO2 2050 . 55% , ( 2.4). CO2 60%
(13177 CO2) , .
2 41% . CO2 42%
(1670 CO2) , . 2050 . CO2 54% (17207 CO2)
, . 2 54% .
CCS 2050 . CO2
55% , 31%
47% .
20202025 . 2 2 . 2 37% 2003 ., 49% 2030 . 55%
2050 . ( 2.4). CO2 53% 2003 . 38% 2050 .
CO2
35% 2050 ., 57%,
8% 2050 . , , -
.

60

2.4

2050 .

 CO2 ,
CCS, 2003 2050 .


CCS

CCS

( 2) 2050 .,
%
%
9943
60
55

2003
(
2)

2050
(
2)

(
2)

12969

21949

8772

2543

3953

2283

2734

42

31

9020
24532

32120
58022

14913
25968

17021
29698

54
55

47
49



, CO2
. ( ) 2% 20032050 .8. ,
1,4% 19731990 . 1,8%
19902003 . ( 2.5). 20032050 .
1,4 1,7% .



2.5

 : ,
, 20032050 .

 
 
 
 
u 
u 
u 
u 
u 
u 
u 

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u



, ,
, .

. .
, 0,3% , .
8

61

2 0 5 0 .

. 1970- .
1990 . 2003 .
1% . , . ,
: 1,7% .

, . 9.
. ,
, 19902003 . , ,
.
,
. (, ) .
1973 . . , , 19732003 .,
(, 2004). , ,
, , , -
.
,
20032050 . .
2.5. , . 2003 2050 . ,
. ,
0,3% ( ) ,
.
CO2 .
CO2 20032050 . 1,1 , .
, 19732003 ., CO2 1,5
, ( 2.6).

,
.
9

62

2050 .

CO2
(CO2/) (/)10
(CO2/):
CO2 / = CO2 / /
2.6 , CO2 19732003 . ;
(CO2/) 2003 . , 1973 . ,
0,4% 2050 . 1,4% ,
19732003 . CO2 ,
19732003 .
CO2 20032050 . 2,7% . CO2
.
,
.
CCS CO2 0,4 0,3% ()
, .



2.6

 CO2 ,
, CCS , 20032050 .
(
)



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u
u

u
u

u


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63

2 0 5 0 .

,
CCS

.
2.7 CO2 , . CO2 0,8%
0,2% .
2 1,1% .
,
. CO2
. ,
.



2.7

 CO2
, 20032050 . (
)







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u
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.

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, , , .
.
,
. , ,
, ,

64

2050 .

. , ,
.
, , , :
 ;
 ,
;

;
 , 25
CO2.
, .
. ,
, ,
, . .
, .
, ,
.

CCS
. 1015
1015 . 250500 .
2,57,5 .
2.5
. 2050 .
. , .

,
CCS
. : -,
- , -, -

65

2 0 5 0 .

. 20052050 . 3,4 ,
0,1% 2003 .
, 2,9 .
. ,
(,
CO2
25 ). 20052050 . 720 11.
10% 7,9
,
CCS
. 2030 . ,
.
2.5

 ,
20052050 . ( )

2* (CCS)

, CCS

: -

* CCS, .

,

3,6
0,9
1,1
1,4
0,9
7,9
4,5
2,9
3,4

2.4
, , .
(. 2.3). ,
4,3 12.
,
0,9 .
.

: ,
,
, , ,
.
12

0,3 1 .
11

66

2.3

2050 .


(WEO 2004)

(WEO 2004) 2030 . 10% (,


2004 .). 1,2%, 0,4
, . 11%, 10%, . 12% ( 3100 ),
.

. .
80% ,
20032030 . 1,2 , .
,
.
2,1
. , 1,5 , , .
.
(2006 .) , , , .
.

(2,9 )
(4,3 ).
.
0,03 /-. ,
2050 . 8,9 . 0,9
, ,
, 8
.

-
. 10,8 2050 .
,

.
. ,

67

2.4

2 0 5 0 .


2

2. CO2
,
. , 25
2 . , .
, ,
, , 2 2050 . .
, .
2 .
CO2 ,
, .
2.8 ,
2050 . . 2 1112
, 23 . CCS :
2 18
, 15 . , , CCS . ,
, .

2.8

 2
, 2050 .













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2 (
CCS
) 2.
: ,
, .
CCS.
CO2 25 .

68

2050 .


.
5%. ( 2003 .) 0,3 , .

1,8 .
1,4 . 100
.
.
, .
.
TECH Plus
, . , .
. ,
, ( )
,
.

TECH
Plus


, . .
, .
,

.

TECH Plus: 2050 .


, CO2 ,
2050 . . , ,
, CO2 2050 . , 375 (
ppm
). -

69

2 0 5 0 .

, CO2
2 .
CO2
2 ( ). . 2 ,
100
.
.
, CO2
.
550 ppm. ,
. 2
2100 . 2.
550ppm ,
.
2 ,
B
1 (IPCC),
(SRES).
1 , 2100 . 2 550 ppm (IPCC, 2001).

2 ,
. 2 2050 .
. 2
. 50 . . .
TECH Plus
.
2050 . . ,
2050 .
, 2050 . , 2050 . (
)
2,
2050 .

70

2050 .



1,6% : 10579 ... 2003 . 22112 ...
2050 . ( 2.9). , 2,1% ( 19712003 .),
, 20032050 .
109%.
20032050 . 3 ,
2 , 2 ( ). 2050 .
: 34%. 20302050.
. 34% (2003 .) 27% (2050 .).
21% (2003 .) 24% (2050 .). , , , 2050 .
15% (20% 2003 .). 6% (2003 .)
4% (2050 .), 11 9%,
2%.
80% (2003 .) 85% (2050 .),
2.9





























20032050 . 2 , .

71

2.10

2 0 5 0 .




















2050 . 55% .

. , ,
CO2.

: 2003 . 38%,
2050 . 54% ( 2.10). 50% (2003 .) 38% (2050 .).
2050 . 58% , 2003 ., 16762 ... 24% , . ( , 14,6% ).
2050 .
28% ,
CCS 42% ( 2.11).
. ,
. 2050 .
721% , 1630% , .
, .

72

2.11

2050 .




























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2050 . 39% ,
, 61%.
2.6

 ,
CCS TECH Plus, 2050 .13

CCS
( 2050 .)
%
...
%
72
5421
65
21
1237
36
25
1360
31
85
687
156
9
36
14

TECH Plus

%
61
20
30
72
11

...
4620
1209
1602
585
41

...
4878
2165
1651
1264
51

71

1455

78

1599

137

2822

24

5350

26

5696

21

4556

TECH

Plus
2050 . 46% , 36%,
65%, 31%.

TECH
Plus

. , ,
. CO2 25

, . .
13

73

2 0 5 0 .

. 10 65 .
,
CO2 .

20032050 . 3
( 2.12): 2584 ... 7532 ... 24% (2003 .) 34% (2050 .). 20302050 .
, .

. -, -
.
, .
2030 . . 2050 . 1800 ...
, .
-, ,

. . -, ( ).
, 2.12



 















 


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,
,
CCS
, 2050 . .

74

2050 .

.
.
(2912 ...) 2050 .
13% , 2003 .
, . 2050 . 2111 ...
( CCS) 3417 ... ( ). 2050 . 18%
(
CCS
) 32% ( ), 2003 . TECH Plus
2050 . 3% , 2003 .
. 20032050 . 2,8% ( 2.13). 1,9% .

0,6% , 0,9% .
CCS , .
,
. 1,7% ,
1,5% , 0,4% .

2.13

 : ,
CCS, 20032050 .







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, , ( CCS).

75

2 0 5 0 .

20032050 . 93%: 3646 ... (2003 .) 7027 ... 2050 .


: , .
. 2050 .
1039 . ... ( ) 20032050 . 65%: 3639 ...
5988 ... ( , ) 20032050 .
96% ( 2.14).
, 1,9%
. (1,3% ) (1,1%
). .
.
2050 . 27% ,
, 5126 ... ,
. (
)
20032050 . 31% 4780 ...
1209 ... (20%) , . 2050 . 346 ...
2050 .
22%.
TECH Plus 2050 .
4135 ... ( 41% , ) -
. TECH Plus 2050 . 3825 ...
5% , 2003 . 2.14 , , . 2050 . 14,5%,
1,7% . 6%, 9%.
.
, .

, , .

76

2050 .



2.14  : 2003, 2030, 2050 .















 


8&0





5&$)
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2050 . , 2030 . TECH Plus .

TECH Plus
2050 . 16%, 6%.
6%.
, , , 2050 ., 23 ,
.

1901 ... 27% ,
. 42 ( 2.15).

;
; ; ,
.

( 2% ), 0,8% , 0,3% .

. ,
. . -

77

2 0 5 0 .


. .
2.15

 14, 2050 .















2050 .
.
2.16

 , 2003
2050 .


















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14

, .

78

2.5

2050 .

2030 . ,
(
WEO
2005). 20302050 .
. ,
, .
,
2030 . 39 ( 2004 .).
, 2050 . 60
, . ,
515 2050 . (
). ,
2 25
10 .
, , 40% (2003 .) 57% (2050 .) ( 2.16).
TECH Plus 2050 . 61%.
.
2.17

 , 20032050 .














  


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TECH Plus 65101% ,


, , .

79

2 0 5 0 .


20032050 . 1,9% : 2224 ... 5349 ... ( 2.17).
, , 2,4%
: 832 ... (2003 .) 2504 ... (2050 .). , - , 1,8%
: 221 ... (2003 .) ... (2050 .).
.
1,4% ( ).
1,1% 3746 ... 2050 . 1602 ... ,
, 67% , 2003 .

28 23%. 3746 ...,
4513 ...
39183989 ... TECH
Plus 3697 . ... (2050 .), 1%
, .
4 : 532 ... (2003 .) 2345 ... (2050 .),
3,2% . 2050 . , .
2.18 , 20032050 .






















2050 . , .

80

2050 .

. 1,2% :
1189 ... (2003 .) 2058 ... (2050 .). ,
. 20032050 . 1,3% .

25% (2003 .) 44% (2050 .) ( 2.18).
2050 .
48%.

20032050 .
2,2% . ,
. 1433 ...
(16661 /) 2003 . 4010 ... (46631 /) 2050 .
16% (2003 .) 23%
(2050 ).
,
, .
-
20032050 .
2.19  (2003
2050 .) (2003, 2030, 2050 .) .


 

 



 



 


 



 











81

2 0 5 0 .

2,6% , 1% , 2,5% ( 2.19).


1,8% , .
20032050 . 44% (2003 .) 37%
(2050 .), 30 35%,
24 27%.
3,6% , 3 , .
, . 2050 . .
20032050 . 1,4%. 2050 . 2732 ... (31776 /) ( 2.20). ,
2
, . ,
, 2 , (,
).
2050 . 32% , . 56%
, 26% 2.20

 ,
, 2003, 2030 2050 .













8&0










2050 . 32% ,
.

82

2050 .

.
2. , 2050 . 14% , ,
3124 ... (36335 /).

2
. -
( ) ( 2.21). , , :
20032030 . 1,4%, 20302050 .
2,8% . , . 5060%,
( 2030 . ) 85 95%.
1,4%
2003 2050 ., , 19712003 . (1,7 %).

, 20032050 . 1,8% .
(, ) 1,4% ,
70% .

1,2% . 64%
.

70%
20032050 . 2050 . 28%
. 1103 ... 2003 . 2154 ... 2050 . 22%
, 2050 .
(,
..)
,
. , TECH Plus ,
,

83

2 0 5 0 .


.
2.21

 15




























.
, 0,9% : 7287 ...
2003 . 10895 ... 2050 . , 2050 . 23% , .
- 1,4% . 2050 . 3705 ...
767 ... (17%) , .
0,8% , 2050 . 3339 ..., 19%
.
2003 2050 . 0,5% . 2050 .
3428 ..., , .
.


, , -
. , .
, .
15

84

2.7

2050 .

16

2003 .,
...

2050 .,
...

,
...

,
...

TECH Plus,
...

2180

5177

3712

4716

3929

1003

2761

2154

2398

2975

3682
4232
3764

3339
3461
3428

28

24

22

13

19
17
33

11
5
27

19
23
33

2326
1895
2733

4138
3339
4472
3705
5142
3428
2050 . (%)

: (298 ... 2050 .).

, 32 36%
2050 . ( 2.8). 2050 . 10 20%
, , 21 25%. ,
447 ... (378 ...) (354 ...).

, .
2003 2050 . 2 164%.
. , , 45% 2
2050 ., . 2
2050 . 4 , 7603 .
.
2 20032050 . 2 ,
2 , 45%.


, , -
. , .
, .
16

85

2.8

2 0 5 0 .


, 2050 .

2050 ., ...

799
767
1715

322
378
630

90
34
149

387
354
936

2050 ., %

2.9

19
17
33

20
20
36

22
10
33

18
16
32

2 , 2003 2050 .17


2003 .,
2

2050 .
2

9946
1718
4490
5122
3255

2050 .

TECH Plus

26294

7324

8751

5119

7603
6512
11733
5469

2696
3501
8486
3552

3451
4363
9866
4373

2074
3501
5946
3550

2, %
,



41

46

29

28

25

7
18
21
13

13
11
20
9

11
14
33
14

11
14
32
14

10
17
29
18

2 2050 ., %
,



72

67

81

65
46
28
35

55
33
16
20

73
46
49
35


2050 . 2 72% .
65%
2050 . .
, 2 2050 .

2.9 2 . 2.2 ,
.
17

86

2050 .

35% , 2 28%, 54%.



2 27% 2050 . 45% . 33%
2050 . TECH Plus
2 29%.


, 2003 2050 . ( 2.22).
2050 . 3 2003 2050 .
( 2.23). 4

. (
, ) 6% , 2%.
2.22

 ,
2003, 2030 2050 .















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,
2050 .

87

2 0 5 0 .



. 2050 . 181%
2003 . CCS, 218%
. TECH Plus
2050 .
4% .
2 , , ( 2.10).
, ,
, , .

 

2.23

 ,
20032050 .




















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TECH Plus.

,
.
CCS
, 2050 .
16,5% 47% .
2050 . 4988 . -,
77% , ,
2003 . ,
( CCS), 2050 . :

88

2050 .

26,9% 30,4%. 2050 .


8551 10029 -.
CCS
53 55% . TECH Plus 6879 .
-, 1

877 . - CCS.



. 2050 .
19,4% 2003 . 27,6% 2050 .
22,6 % 28,2%
CCS.
2050 . 2844% , 2003 ., 3225 -.
2050 . 7192 -,
9229 . -.
TECH Plus
2005 . 6425 . -, 20%
.
2003
2050 . 3,3%,
TECH Plus 2% .



2635 . - 2003 .
3107 . - 2050 . ( 2.24).
,
2050 .
.
,
6,7% 2050 ., ( ).
16%,
CCS 19%.
, . -
2050 . (9,8 % ).
2050 . 5338 -, 2 2003 .
72% , 2050 .

89

2 0 5 0 .

2050 . 3100 -
5814 -
.
. 2.24  ,
20032050 .













 
 
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c 2003 2050 . 103%,


TECH Plus 202%.
, 2050 . ,
, . 4 ,
, . , 2050 .
, .
TECH Plus
( ), .
2003 2050 . 177% 2050 .
7300 -. 20032050 .
29% , 2050 .
22% . , TECH Plus -
665 -
. TECH Plus 2050 .
3 , 2003 .

51,0
1,3
32,2
1,6
5,9
2,4
5,6
100

3,9
100

0,7
100

3736
31664

9626
5102
721
8138
3103
4897
1457
2022
31600

9322
5127
695
8500
5688
4424
948

11,8
100

30,4
16,1
2,3
25,7
9,8
15,5
4,6
6,4
100

29,5
16,2
2,2
26,9
18,0
14,0
3,0

22,6
100

12,0
0,0
25,6
17,4
14,5
7,9
23,5
100

19,1
0,0
31,8
3,0
14,6
8,1

12,4
100

17,2
0,0
34,3
19,8
11,6
4,8

20032050 ., %

11,4
100

26,9
14,3
2,3
22,6
16,8
15,4
4,5

2050 ., %

3623
31776

8551
4545
744
7192
5338
4896
1430

2050 ., -

25,1
100

0,0
0,0
33,5
19,7
13,9
7,9

13,5
100

16,5
0,0
2,0
28,2
19,0
16,0
4,8

4081
30228

4988
0
605
8524
5743
4836
1451

CCS 2

19,7
100

16,7
0,0
29,9
15,8
11,1
6,9

11,2
1

27,6
15,2
2,0
25,4
16,0
13,4
4,4

4065
36335

10029
5516
727
9229
5814
4869
1599

27,8
100

1,2
0,0
19,2
28,0
14,2
9,6

14,8
100

20,9
15,2
2,2
19,5
22,2
15,3
5,1

4869
32896

6879
5001
726
6425
7300
5019
1678

TECH Plus

47,1
0,0
3,3
27,6
6,7
9,5
2,0

1800
4663

113
1666

40,1
0,0
6,9
19,4
15,8
15,9
1,3

21958
0
1531
12881
3107
4420
933

6681
0
1152
3225
2635
2645
210

2003 .

 (2050 .) 20032050 .

(. CCS)

CCS

CCS

2.10

90
2050 .

91

2 0 5 0 .


2645 - 2003 . 4420 .
- 2050 .
,
16% 2003 . 9% 2050 . ,
, 2050 . 10% ,
. . , ,
20032050 . 13% 16%. TECH Plus
2050 . 14% ,
.
, . 2050 .

2% , 3% 4,5% .
TECH Plus 2050 . 5,1%.


,
, , ,
, , ,
.
113 - 2003 . 1800
- 2050 . 2050 . 2
.
,

2050 . , 10%. .
,
3620 -.
,
.
TECH Plus
, ,
8%

92

2050 .

2003 2050 ., 4869 - 2050 ., 15% .


, , 90%
20032050 ., 2050 . 20752 . -, 2
. , ,
, 45% CCS ( 2.25).
,
. (24%) (11%) .
20032050 .
1580 -, 2050 .
21% ,
CCS.
2003 . 560
. - 2050 . . 28%
, 15%, , , 13%.

2.25



, 2050 .









$$4





$$4

2050 . , .

93

2 0 5 0 .

2050 . 2
3,7 2, 20% CCS

, .
2,2 2
c (IGCC)
. 2050 . , ,
CCS,
, ,
45% .
3,7 2, , 0,3 2 , , , - .
-
. , CCS
2 25 .

2
.
164% 20032050 .,
2.26


 2 ,
20032050 .























 


    5&$)
1MVT


$$4 
 

$$4


2
2003 .

94

2050 .

2050 . 2003 . (
2.26).
26% 2003 . 2005 . 32% , ,
43% 2 .
CCS 21% .
,
10% . ,
,
.

2
CCS
CCS

. , , ,
CCS ,
.
TECH Plus 2050 . 49% 2003 .
30% 2
.
2.27

 2
, 2003 2050 .


























$$4




5&$)
1MVT


2 2050 .
, .

95

2 0 5 0 .


, 2 2003
2050 . , ( 2.27).
,
, , , , . , .
2 1 - 60% , .
CCS 1 - 2 2,
. TECH Plus
2050 . 2003 . 70%.
2
2.28. 20032050 . 2
20%. 2003 . 33%.
(
) 2050 . 41%.
45% , . 2050 . 40%

CCS
, . , CCS
8%. , , 48%. -
CCS
2 42% .

96

2050 .

18

2003 2050 . 136% ( 2.29).
2050 . 4500 ...
94% ,

. 3% , 2,6 . , , ,
.
2050 .
17%, 767 ... . TECH Plus 2050 .
2.28

 2
, 20032050 .







$$4













2 - 2050 . 50%
, 2003 . CCS.

, , ,
, . TECH Plus . 2003 . 80%
. Map TECH Plus.
. .

.
18

97

2 0 5 0 .

1011 ..., 23% .


, ,
2050 . 67%
70% TECH Plus.

9%. , , 2050 . 480 ...
( 2.30). 2050 .
13%,
TECH Plus 25%.
2.29


TECH Plus, 20032050 .



















8&0





5&$)1MVT


24%, TECH
Plus 55% .
, . TECH
Plus
.
. 2050 . 308 ..., 9%
. , 2050 .
2 3
,
.

98



2.30

2050 .

 ,
20032050 .















8&0







5&$)1MVT


TECH Plus .
2 2050 . 11,7 ,
2,3 2003 . ( 2.31). , -
.
. ,
, , ,
2003 . 2,1
, ,
( 2.32). , ,
, 2
2050 . 15,5 .
2, , .
. 2 20032050 .
300%.
50%.
, .
2 28% ( 3,2 2)
.
, .

99

2 0 5 0 .

25 2 .
2 3 ( 2.31).
2.31


 2
TECH Plus, 20032050 .19













$

$










8&0







5&$)1MVT


28%- 2 , .


TECH Plus
2. 2050 .
,
16% 2003 . TECH Plus 2 2050 . , . ,

-
. , , .

19

2 .

100

2.32

2050 .

 2
, 2003 .20

































2, .

. 2050 . 13% , 2003 . ,
, 23% ( 2.33).


.
2
. 2050 .
40% 2003 .
20032050 . , 50%,
149%.

, 2003 .
. , ,
.
2
. .
20

101

2 0 5 0 .

TECH Plus
2050 . 50% 2003 .

TECH Plus 30%
. , , .
, .
2.33


 




21












 


 


 


 


5&$)1MVT

20032050 .
40%, TECH Plus 50%.


( 2.34).
, , .
,
, , NO.

21

LDV (Light Duty Vehicle).

102

2.34

2050 .







 













.
.
2050 . 210 ...
, 20% . ,
,
,
(
NOx). .
2050 .
50 ...
, ,
2050 . 240 ...
, (
) 80%.
. (

103

2 0 5 0 .

, ) 2050 .
. ,
, .
.

, .
10% 2050 . 2050 .
20% ,
20% 45% .
(35%)
75% . ( , ,

) 265 ...

22
23 2003 .
2571 ..., 35,3% , 162 ... ( 2.35). , -
. 2003 . 32%
-
,
.
. 23%, 22% 14%. 37%, 35%, 18% 5%.
3,5 ,
( ).
,
, .
. ,
.
23

- ,
, . - , , ,
- . ,
. , 2.35
, .
22

104

2050 .

435 ... (37%), 725 ... (63%).


2.35

 -




















 8&0






2050 . 35% ,
.

2.11



2003 ., . ...

2030 ., . ...

2050 ., . ...

74
243
408
337
114
819
1994

49
370
589
714
145
943
2809

40
382
843
1105
146
710
3224

15
116
151
267
20
7
577

12
227
228
552
35
41
1094

10
287
340
850
88
44
1620

1% ( 2.11). 2050 .

105

2 0 5 0 .

.
.
,
.
( ) , 2,2% . , .
850 ...
2050 . 52% .
, .
- 88% 2003 2050 ., 1,4% . ,
.
2,5% , 24% 2003 . 40% 2050 .,
. . 2050 . 59%
- .
- 0,2%

( ).
32 16%.
- , 2030 .
-
2050 . 1715 ... , ( 2.12).
66% .
,
49%,
- . 35% ,
, 42%
(713 ...) - . 2050 . 20%, 154 ... ,
.
( ),
. ,

106

2050 .

. 2.12 -
.
2.12


( )
2050 ., ...
24
284
424
713
116
154
1715

2050 ., %
39
34
36
35
49
20
33


. .

.
(
)
.
, 2.36


, 2050 .



 





 
 





 
 
 










107

2 0 5 0 .

.
, ( 2.36).
0,51,9%
2003 2050 . .
2050 . 2642%,
- .
2050 . 1124 ... .
2 ,
, 591 ... (
2.36). 36%, 35%.
( 2.37).
, .
.
(standby
)
.
16%
.
(37% ).
9% . .
4%
.

. - (40%),
, . 32%. 32% ,
,
,
.

108

2.37

2050 .

 , 2050 .
( )











 
































2 , .
35% 2050 . 42% . , 62%,
.
2.38



 , 2050 . ( )


 

u
u
u











u

u

109

2 0 5 0 .

( )
2050 . 32% .
58% . 21%, 17% 4%
.
, ( 2.38).
2.39

 2 , 2003
2050 . 24


















8&0









2 - .
, 38% 2 - 2003 . 2

62% ( 2.39). 2 2030 2050 . 2
2003 . 2

. 2, - , 139% 2003 2050 .
2 , -

2
2 2003 . 2 , .
24

110

2050 .

2050 . 35%.
40%, 35% 34%. 2,
2050 . 38%. ,
, . 2 ,
, 37% 2050 .
7,8 2.

25

2326 ... 2003 . 4138 ... 2050 . ( 2.40).

, . 2003 .
200 ...,
. 2050 . .
2.40

 26



























20032050 . 78%.

Map.
. .
.
26

, 2003 .
200 ...
25

111

2 0 5 0 .

20032050 . , . ,
, , 2050 . 3339 ...,
44% , 2003 .
2050 .
( ) 20%, 894 ...
, ( 2.13). 335 ... ,
382 . ..., 276 ...
7%. ,
.
2.13


2050 .
,
...


,
...
16
41
144
70
40
9
320

,
...
213
345
492
464
55
179
1 748

55

260

434

302

20

199

1 271

150
75
320

( ), %

31%
36%
28%

38%
39%
36%

1%
5%
13%

34%
30%
25%

8%
16%
15%

16%
358%
15%

21%
23%
18%

,
...
286
646
1 071
836
115
387
3 339
555
29%
37%
4%
29%
2%
18%
20%

(37%),
(29%) (29%). ,
.
,
. , .

112

2050 .


. , ,
.
,
.

.

700 ... 2050 ., 550 ...
. ,
, , , .
,
, .

.
,
. ,

,
.
, . ,

. ,
.
.
. ,
, , , -
. .
-
, ,
. 25%
, . -

113

2 0 5 0 .

, , .
.

. , .
,
/ .
CO2. ,
,
CCS
, , , ,
.
2.41

 CO2 2003
2050 .27

















$


2050 .
5,4 CO2.

.
2 2003 . ,
. , , 2 .
, .
27

114

2050 .

CO2,

, 2003 . 2050 82%,
17,2 CO2 ( 2.41). 11,5 CO2, 33% , .
,
21% 2003 .
CO2 5,4 CO2, 0,3
CO2 , .
CO2
, .
( 2.42), CO2 5,7 ,

46%. CCS 2050 . 27%.
2.42

 CO2 2050 .
28





  





$$4










CO2.


. 2 ,
.
28

115

2.6

2 0 5 0 .

, ,
. , CO2
. , ,
.
, .
, . , ,
. 16 , , - .
5 .

6 , 34%.
, - 85% . 45% . 4 .
, CO2 70 .
CO2, .
, .

.
20% 2 (
CCS
) , 30% - , 25%
, , . CCS
( 0,3
2050 .),
.
18% CO2,, . 5%
, .

(, ),

116

2050 .

. 4% CO2.
( ) ( ) CO2
,
. CO2 CCS (
),
. ,
, , 50
CO2. , CO2 , ,
(. 2.6).
2.43

 CO2
2050 .29









 


 
 
 

$$4



 
 
 

u 











CO2 2050 . .

, , 2
, . 2
2050 .
29

117

2 0 5 0 .

2.43 CO2
.
2050. CO2 , ,
.
,
2050 . 1,2 CO2.
( , ..)
0,3 CO2.
2,9 , CCS

1,5 . CO2 0,2 .


. CO2 0,3 . ,
( , / ),
,
.

CO2 .

118

2050 .

119


 (ACT) ,

.
(, )
,
.


.
.

, .

.
 ,

.

.


. ,
,
.

.
 ,
, ,
. ,
2 (CCS) ,
CO2.

, ,
.

120

2050 .

 ,
,
.
,
, .
, ,
..
, .
,
, ,
, ,
.


, ,
.
. ,

, ,
,
, .
 2050 . , , CCS.
.
,
, , .
-
,
( ).
(
).
: ; , , .

2 , . CCS ,

.

121

, 2,
.

. .
, , -
. . , ,
. ,

,
.
; , ,
; .
, .
.
.

.
, , , .



, . : , ,
.


.
, , . ,

.

122

3.1

2050 .

(Boston Consulting
Group 1968, OECD/IEA, 2000).
.
( ) ( ). , ( ).
.
.
.
.

.

.


, .
.
, , , (. 3.1).
. ,
, , CCS, ,
2.
, ,
, . - . .

. ,
, , ,
. -
. , , . -

123

,
.
, ,
, ( 3.1).
,
- .
,
. ,
,
.
,
, .
,
.

,
. , , , .

. , ,
, . , ,
.
3.1








 




 





u


124

2050 .


, . , , , , ,
.


, ,
,
.

( )
(
standby
). . , ,
.
,
. , ,
, , .


,
.
, . .
,
. , ,
.
, .

, , .
,
, , .

125

, .

.


,
.
, ,
. ,
- . -
, ,
.
, ,
.
,
.


,
, , .
. ,
, .

, .
.
, ,

. , ,
. . .
.
.

.

126

2050 .


,
.
. ()
, .
, , , -
,
( ,
), , . ,
. , .
, ,
,
. , , ,
,
,
.

, .
3.1 , ( , () TECH

Plus
), ,
.
, , . , -
, . ,
,
.
,
. ,
. (,

, - ). , , (, ),
, .
, ,
, -
.

127

3.1.  ,
TECH Plus,


( )



( )
(
)
(/)
()
()


2 (CCS)








/
/
2

128

(
)


(
)


()


( , NGCC)*

()*
(IGCC), ()*
(Fuel Cells)
CCS +

()
CCS +

()
CCS + IGCC, ()
CCS +
/
( )
,
II III
,
IV

2050 .

* 2 , ,
.

: , ,
, , .
, . , ,
,
.

129



TECH
Plus

, , ,
( 3.1). - ,

. ,
, ,
. , ,
, .
,
2. , ,
2030 . ,
2, 25 .
3.2 ,
, TECH
Plus. ,
- , .
- , ,
, - ,
2, -
2.
2 2050 . .

.
, . , , ,
.
, 3.2
2 TECH

Plus
. 1 2 .
,
, 2.

130

3.2













u

 




 

















 $$4













 

2050 .

 






 /($$




*($$


 'VFM$FMMT

$$4 


$$4 


$$4 *($$

$$4 
 

 *****
 *7











 

 
 


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 







: 2, , ; ,
2 . ,
CCS. 2
2.2 - .
IV , TECH Plus,
.

131


. ,
: ,
, , , .
, ,
30. , ,
.
3.2, ,
, .
- , TECH
Plus.

2 2015, 2030 2050 . ( ).
* (< 0,1 2 ), ** (0,10,3 , ),
***(0,31 ), **** (> 1 ).


. , . ,
2. . CCS.
2 -
5070 %, ,
(
NGCC
) , .
CCS 2 . 2
8595%. ,
, : , .
30

132

2050 .

. CCS
2 ,
.
3.3


2 2050 . (
CCS )
$$4




















 











$$4




















 

,
,
CCS
2 18% , 9%
CCS ( 3.3). CCS 12%
2 2050 . ( ). 3.2 2 .
(
NGCC
), .
.
,
.
CCS .
, . , (IGCC) . ,
2050 . .
, ,
.
. -

133

, , .
3.2 , CCS, ,
2030 .,
CCS
. CCS

. CCS

,
, . CCS
, 2,
( 2).
CCS , ,
2 25
.
,
, 2015
2030 ., , ( 3.1).

2050 . ,
CCS
, 2.
3.2


2 (
)


( , NGCC)
()
(IGCC),
()
(Fuel Cells)
CCS +
()
CCS +
()
CCS + IGCC ()
CCS +
/ ( )

2015 .

2030 .

2050 .

**

***

****

1,6

**

**

0,2

**

0,2

**

0,2

**

****

1,3

**

****

1,3

**

****

1,3
0,1

: * (< 0,1 2 ), ** (0,1 0,3 . ),


*** (0,31 .), **** (> 1 . ). 2 .

134

3.4

2050 .













 


 /($$

 



 


*($$


 

 'VFM$FMMT

 

$$4 


 

$$4 


 

$$4 *($$

 

$$4 
 








(NGCC)


(NGCC -)
2050 . 5 7% 2.
. ,
, ,
. NGCC
( ),
2030 .
NGCC .
F ( 200 )
90- ., . , ,
.
60% ( , LHV).
:
2003. 42%.
2.
, ,
NGCC

, , .

135

60%- ( LHV)
( 450600 1 )
(10001200 1 ).
2 1 NGCC 2 ,
. , . , NGCC

, .

.

NGCC
.
NGCC
60 85% . , .
NGCC,
.
,
,
NGCC31.
NGCC
,
,
.


, - 2050 . 2 .
NGCC CCS 2,
.
, , NGCC

.
, , c
,
NGCC
, .


, , .
31

136

2050 .

(SCSC)
(USCSC)

20 . 29%
3,9 2 .
45%, 36%, 1,4 2
. 2030 .
.
. CCS .

c (
SCSC
) , .
, SCSC ( 2003 .
40 ).
(USCSC),
700 ,
. , USCSC 1215% ,
. ,

, 1316% , . , USCSC

, ,
.


4547%. 5055% ( 20% ,
35%) , .
2. ,
,
. .

600 . , (ferritic, 650 )
(
austenitic
, 700 ) , 90- , .

137

, ,
750 ,
.


- ,
,
. , - .
,
, . ,
, . , , ,
.
-

. , ,
(
2). , , , ,
.

(IGCC)


IGCC
. ,
, , , . IGCC

, , CCS.
IGCC 2 ,
. ,
.

IGCC 20% ,
. IGCC

- 45%, , 2020 . 50%,


. ,
IGCC
- II ,

.

138

2050 .


IGCC. IGCC-
, . IGCC-
,
.


. ( ), ,
, ,
, .
IGCC
.
IGCC
, ( ).

(FBC PFBC)


, -
.
,
2020 . , .


, . .
(
atmospheric
circu
lating fluidized bed, CFBC)
300 . CFBC
, ,
,
. (PFBC).

139


.
2 . ( 12 ), 44% ( LHV).

. CFBC 460 ,
2006 . 43% (
LHV
). CFBC-
600 . II
,
.


, , .
,
, .

PFBC
.

2 (CCS)

, CCS 2 4,8 2050 . (


). , CCS ,
,
2.

CCS
, 50
2. , ,
, CCS , .

140

2050 .


.
CCS
. ,
CCS
, -
CCS . CCS

2. - CCS.
. , CCS,
CCS

. CCS 2 , .


CCS
, , ,
,
.
, . CCS,
. CCS ,
CCS .
CCS

. , , .
2. 2, .

,
. , , 2
, .
CCS.
CCS
2

141

.
. , 20152020 . , CCS
.

2015 . CCS ,
. , 2015 . ,
( , ).
( ),

CCS
, . CCS
( 2 )
.


CCS
, .

CCS
. 2015 . 10 ,
CCS.
500 1 , CCS.
CO2 . ,
, , . CO2
,
, 2 , 2,
.

. . . -

142

2050 .


,
232
.
, 2.

. ( , , ,
) ,
.
.
.
,
.

.
2
2%. , , , ,
, , . 2% 2 ( ). , , 2
6% ( 3.5). CCS CCS
, ,
.
3.3
2
. , , 2050 .
.
, .

, . .


2, . 2
. ,
, .
2, .
, .
32

143

,
. .
- . , , (3.6).
, , ,
.
3.5


2 CCS 2050 .
( )


$$4







































 

3.3

 

 2

( )

( )


( )

()

2015 .
*
**
**

2030 .
***
**
**
***
*
*

2050 .
***
***
**
****
**
**
**

2
0,5
0,5
0,3
1,3
0,3
0,2
0,1

: * (< 0,1 2 ), ** (0,10,3 ),


*** (0,31 ), **** (> 1 ). 2 .

144

3.6

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,
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.
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,
.
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.
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.
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145

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. , ,
.


. , - , . ,
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.

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, . ,
.

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.

146

2050 .

, .
. ,
, , . .
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, 0,030,08 / .

.

. 1 ,
,
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, . -
.
.



, .
, .
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,

.

147


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, .

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, .
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). . ,
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GT
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, , . IGCC
.

,
.
, ,
.


50250 /. 0,02 /-, , 0,02 -

148

2050 .

/-, 3 1 .

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. .
, , , , .
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149

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.
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. ,
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2050 .
, .
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.

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2050 .

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,
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151

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).


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, , . , 2030 .
.
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, .
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60- .
100000 ( ) (-). 2000 3000 /-.
, ,
.
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.


. - .

152

2050 .

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.

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). .
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.

153

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154

2050 .


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. , , .

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. () , , ,
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.
,
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III
. III+ IV ,
. ,
23 . IV

155

2030 ., II, III III+


( 3.8). - , ,
.
-
,
.
3.7

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CCS, 2050 . (
)






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II III
IV

2015 .
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2030 .
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2050 .
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3.8











 

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156

2050 .

. ,
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.
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.
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.
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III
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.

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,
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.

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.

157

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158

2050 .

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,
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.


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.
, . TECH Plus

,
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, 2,

159


.
2050 . 30% ,
.
TECH Plus .
, 2.
3.9

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)






$$4












 





















 

2015, 2030 2050 . 3.5. 2015 . ( ,


) ,
( ,
). 2030 .
.
.
,
. , , -
, ( 3.10). , ,

160

3.5

2050 .

 2 TECH Plus

( )



( )


( )



( )

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()
()

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2030 .

2050 .

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, TECH Plus.

3.10

u


 





























 




 






 















161

. , ,
.


( )

, . ,
; , (
) .

,

. , . , 2.

, . , . .
34 .
, ,

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,
, . ,
, ,
.

162

2050 .

, . . , .
. , ,
, . ,
,
. 2 ,
. ,
, (IEA, 2005).

, .
.
, , (
) ( )

.


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,
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.
, , ,
, .

3000 ,

163

.
,
. 2000
,
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,
. 2015 .,
.

.

.

.
.
, , .


- - .

.
, . (,
) .
, .

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, , . , .

164

2050 .

, ,
.
.
, ,
.
, ,
.

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.
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. . 2
.
(Farrel et.al., 2006)
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).

, , , .
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.
,
, .


.
, . .
0,020,03 /, -

165

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. ,
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, , , ,
.

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. .

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. .
.
,
,
.


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MTBE)
.
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.

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.

, , 1 /
. 2
, 60 .

166

2050 .

, 0,450,50 /
.

,
. , .
. 1 40 .
, , ,
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,
. , , , , .
,
.
,
.




( ),
. , , , ,
. ,
.

.
.
.

167

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) 2 4060%
.
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. (, ) 3
.
. , - (FT-)

,
.

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.

(0,701,2 / ) .
( )
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, ,
- .

.
.
, .
.
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168

2050 .

. ,
, ,
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.
, .
,
.
,
.



.
, , . .
, , ,
.

2
, .
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.

, , .
(proton exchange membrane, PEM

169

. 2000 /.
,
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)
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50 / ,
.
, .
,
. , -

, .

.
,
.

, . .
,
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.
,
.


- , .
50 /. , ,
.
.

170

2050 .

, .
2.
,
, , 2020 .
.

.

,
2050 . , 24% 2 (
). 2
,
. 2050 . ,

2 -
( 3.11).
3.11

 ,
2 , 2050 .
( )





















 

, , 2 - ( 3.12).
, , ,
, , -

171

.
,
, .
2 -
-
( 3.6). ( )
,
. 2050 .,
.
3.6

 2
, (
)

2015 . 2030 . 2050 . 2



***
***
****
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*
**
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*
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3.12

, :





















 
 
 

 

 




 

 


 







172

2050 .


, .

.
. , , . ,
, , , . , ,
.

, . , ,
.

, .
, , , .
20 . -
.
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, ,
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. ( ).
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) ,
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, ,
, . ,

173

. , .
, .

, . .
,
.
.

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.
;
, , , , ,
,
. . , . ,
,
.
, , .
.
, (
).
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, ,
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.
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174

2050 .


,
, , . , ,
. .
,
. , .
.

. , , ,
,
.
,
. , , ,
( ). , .
. .
,

.
, .
, , . , , .
. ,
, .

175


, . , , .

:
,
, .
, , ,
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.
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1,5 / ( ), -
6,5 /.
.


( ), .
,
. 5000 , 23
.
. 0,025 /-
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, ,
,
. ,
( ) 0,03 /-.

176

2050 .

, .
.
. ,

.
. , ,
.
, .
. . .
, ,
.




. ,
.

, .
.
, .
,
.
, .
, . ,
. , , . , , - .

177

,
- . , .
.
.
.
. ,

.


2.
, 2 .

. , .
,
, .

2.

. (combined heat and power, CHP)


.
, , CHP

2.
.

178

2050 .


. ,
. ,

. , ,
, . ,
, .
,
CHP
- , . , , . - 2
,
.
, .
.

, , ,
. , , .

. 2
.

. ,
, ,

179

. . ,
.

, . , , ,
,
, . , .


( ) ,
.


, .
2 .
- .
,
.

, 2 30 60%.
(Lights Labours Lost,
2006), , , ( 2030 .) 38%
. ,
.
,
, .
2050 ., .

180

2050 .

.
13% -
20 60% .
, ,
, 2, .


. ,
, .
, , .
, . ,
. , ,
, ,

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-

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.

( ,
). ,
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.

; ,
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, , , /
, -

181

.
, .
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. .
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. , .
, ,
, .
.
.


. , .
,

.

. .
, ,
(
).
, , , , ..
, ,

.
.

182

2050 .

. .

33.
- . ,
.

.
,
, . . ,
.
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.


, . , .
. ,
, ,
.

, . ,
, ,
.
, . ,
,
. ,
, .
,
. ,

33

. http://www.ecbcs.org

183


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.
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.
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by
) . ,
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184

2050 .

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. 3040%
. ,
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,
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.
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.

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.
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.
, . ,
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,
. .
.
. , ,

185

.
,
.

.

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.


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1,53 . 12 / ,
.
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.

, ,
.
. , , .

186

2050 .




. ,
.

.

, .

. ,
. .
.

.
,
.


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.
.
. , (
) .

2. , , , .

, ,
.
2
.

187

30% . 2, , 23% . 2,
.
2:
;
;
;
 ;
 ;
;
/;
;
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, 2,4
. 0,3 2 . CCS 27% 2,
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( 3.13). ,
55% 2.
3.7 2 2015
2050 . .
,
2015 .
,
.

188

2050 .

, , .
3.13

 2
, 2050 . ( )





$$4

















 

. ,
,
- . ,
- , 20302050 .
2015 ., .
3.7

 2

( )





2 (CCS)

2015 .

2030 .

2050 .

2/

*
**
**
**

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***
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**

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***

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189

3.14 . , ,
.
(
). - ( ). CCS
, - - .
3.14











 



 

 

 










 
 
 
 



 

 $$4

 







(
) 3 .
, , .
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34 EJ ( 2
0,20,4 ).

190

2050 .

,
. 2
25 .
, .

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,
, .
, . ,
,
, . , .


,
, .
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. 2030%, 5% .
, (1020%). 1,5 2 2050 .
2050 . 2,4
2.

191

-
. , ,
, , , . .
, .
, , .
2
.
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.

, .
,
, .
, . ,
.
,
.


,
, . .

, .

.
, .
.

192

2050 .

- ,
, . .
.


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.


. ,
, . 2 25 / .
25 / 2. ,
.

,

, , .
.
, ,
, . .
, .
,
.

193


, , , , .
,
. ,
.

, . ,
, .
.

,
. , , . ,
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, .
, , , .
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2050 . (2030%). ,
.


. ,
, .


.
. . , , , ,

194

2050 .

.
.
. 2 .


,
, . ,

.
,
2.
, .

. .
, , 3EJ,
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, ,
,
. , , ,
. 2
25 / 25 / 2. ,
.

.
.

195

.
, . ,
. ,
, ,
.
, ,
, , .


- , .
. .


. , ( 1020 EJ),
50 / 2. ,
, . ,
, .
, .

, .
, .
,
,
. 2 25 /.

.
.

196

2050 .


2
. .

( ).
.
2 . ,
, .
,
. .


, . ,
2. 5 EJ
. 2 0,3 .

. ,
.
2 . , ,
.


, .
. , , ,
. ,
, , .

197


,
, , , . ,
,
2. .
.

5 10
EJ
2 0,4 .
,
.
( ),
.


. , .
.

, , .
, . -
.
,
.


- 2 ( ) .

198

2050 .

2 (CCS)

CCS . CCS
, , , ,
. CCS
2050 . 1,45 .

CCS
, . , . 2 25 / 2.

.
25 / 2 . , , 25 / 2.

, .
CO2 .
CCS.
,
CO2.


CCS
- . 2. , CCS,
.
CCS
, . ,
, 2,
.

201


, CO2 2050 . 40% 45%.
 -
1020 . , , ,
,
.
.

CO2 . ,
35% 50% 2050 .

CO2, CO2 ,
, .
, , .

. ,
, 20% , . ,
, 30%
,
.
 CO2 . , . CO2 ,
.
CO2 25 .
CO2. -

202

CO2 .

18% , , , . -, - , .
.
 16%
. . , , ,

.
 ,
, .
CO2.
 -
.

.
3% 2050 .

203


. 2003. 40% CO2,
70% , 20%
, , 10% , . 1971

. CO2 170%.

, CO2. . ( ,
6 , 7
.) , (IGCC Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle),
, CO2
(CCS CO2 capture and storage),
CO2. , , , , , , -
. , 30-40 , .
,
. 45% , 40%,
15%. -
, 60%.
510% . , , , , .
. ,
, . (,
, 6 , 7 .)
CO2 .
, -

204

. :
, ;
CO2; ; . CO2.
, .
(
6 ,
).


CO2
CO2 30 .
. -
10-20 . . ,
, , , ,
. ,
.
70-
-
. ,
,
- 4% 1973. 20%
1985. (. 4.1).
50- .
1985

. . , ,
.
. .
- ,
90- , , .

205

(NGCC Natural Gas Combined


Cycle), .
4.1


1973 1985

2003

1973 1985 2003


%

1693 2739 3843


38
43
39

1125 575
561
25
9
6

520 594 1728


12
9
18

188 1259 2223 4,2
20
23

912 1174 1242


21
18
13

14
45
266
0,3
0,7
2,7

4454 6388 9863


208 590 2491


33
36
47

174 307
529
27
19
10

30
146
919
4,7
8,8
17

3
49
135
0,4
2,9
2,6

219 544 1137


35
33
22

2
11
55
0,4
0,7
1

636 1646 5264


*

434, 472
348
42
27
23

211 300
61
21
17
4

192 503
578
19
29
38

12
184
277
1,2
11
18

150 256
269
15
15
18

23
23
3
2,2
1,3
0,2

1021 1738 1535


2335 3801 6681


38
39
40

1509 1182 1152


25
12
6,9

742 1243 3225


12
13
19

203 1492 2635 3,3
15
16

1282 1974 2645


21
20
16

40
80
323
0,6
0,8
1,9

6111 9772 16661


* , ,
. : IEA, 2005b; IEA 2005c.

, ,
80- 90- . , .
. , 70-
,
90-, .
1973 1985

. , -

206

. 80-
.
, ,

, .
CO2, , , , .
1973. -
4450 , 630 . 1985 . : -
4800 . 1973

. 587 , -
4935 .
, 2003.
,
- (1103 8543 ).
1985 2003

. . , ( 10% 1973-1985.
4% ). , 70-
, 90- .

CO2 (. 4.2). 1973-1985.
CO2 -
3,6% ( 1,8 2,8 ). -
1,6% 1986-2003.,
3,7 .
, CO2 .
- 1986-2003 . 1,9% ,
1973-1985. 1,5%. 90-
. 1973. CO2 7% ,

0,3 1973. 0,7 1985. 2,8 2003.
CO2 1990 . ( )
2003 . 3 .
30-60 . -

207

. , 2020 2050 ., - .
,
,
, 1.
, .
4.2

CO2 ( CO2)
1973

1985

1990

CO2

2003


,
1973-2003
%

1819
2773
3006
3655
1,5

806
420
474
385
-1,6

282
316
409
819
5,5

1
5
24
58
7,2

2907
3513
3913
4918
1,8

265
661
1050
2830
7,9

158
280
319
439
2,5

24
109
167
495
8,7

0
0
0
2

446
1051
1536
3766
7,1
*

547
625
690
588
-1,2

215
365
263
103
-0,9

189
410
562
631
0,9

0
0
0
10

957
1399
1515
1332
-1,0

2631
4059
4747
7074
3,1

1179
1065
1056
927
-1,0

494
835
1138
1945
4,2

1
5
24
70
8,7

4305
5964
6964
10016
2,8
* , , .
: 1) ,
. 2) CO2 , .
: IEA, 2005a.


, CO2
, .

, ,
, .
1

208


.
.
,
. ,
, , .
, ,
, ,
.
, , ,
,
,
, .
; , , . , ,
,
. , ,
; , , CO2.

CO2, . .

( ), , ,
. ,
, , .
,
, , ,
, ,
.
.
.

209

CO2 ,
, , , , CCS,
2.
, .


. , ,
, . : (NGCC),
, , (IGCC)
.

(
LHV

Lower

Heating

Value
). (HHV Higher Heating Value) ,

. LHV

, HHV.
5% 10% ,
2% HHV LHV
5% .

4.3 . 80% , 75%,


, .
.
(43%).

CCS , ,
, .
2

210


, .
4.3
.
, - 88% .
:
- 66%.
4.4 , 2003. . 97% . 85% , 11% (SC supercritical) 2%
(USC ultra-supercritical). 2%
(
FBS

Fluidised
-
Bed

Combustion
) 0,1% .
38% , 25% .
36% , 1%
.
4.3.

, 2003. (%)




51
19
14

17
5,8
35

31
1,7
0,5

21
1,1
2,4

30

18

15

19

28
39
77

24
12
14

4,4
2,0
2,6

7,8
1,3
1,0

19
46

42
7,7

3,9
1,3

17
0,5

46
79
68
29
3,0
6,5
40

25
0,3
11
37
13
52
19

3,5
23
6,5
3,8
0,4
0,5
100

4,0
0,2
2,3
10
3,4
9,0
100

211

4.4.

, 2003.

351

PCC

970

225

PCC

138

332

PCC

17

FBC

17

: PCC (Pulverised Coal Combustion) ; c 540C; c 580C; FBS (Fluidised-Bed Combustion) .


: IEA, 2004b ( ); IEA Clean Coal Centre ( ).

, (4-6
./). , (NGCC)
, .

NGCC
60 75% , , , ,
40% (. 4.1). ,
( ) NGCC , .
,
. .
4.1.














  

, , , , , .

5% 10% ( NEA/IEA, 2005).
5% .
3

212


4.2 , , 4. 1992-2003. 35%, 33% 1992. 35%
2003. ,
; , 90-
.
35% 1992 . 42%
2003. , ,
, 38% , .
4.2.

, 19922003.

 
 











           


, .
4.5. 2003

. , , 33%
49% .
1990

., , .
, , , . ,
, , .

, .
.
4

213

4.5.

(.) (%)

1974

1990

2003


1974

1990

2003

37
37
43
34
37
37

39
40
49
32
38
39

40
42
44
25
39
42

35
44
27
31
33

36
33
33

36
35
42
30
34
35
: , , ,
, .

2003 . 33%
42% .
, ,
, 21%.
30 ,
6%.
.
, .
, .

, ,
.
,
.
. , .
, ,
. , ,
, ,
, ,
.
. . (
, ) .
(
PCC
) 97% .
, -

214

.
PCC
( 180 540C),
1000
5. , ,
, 30%. ( ) ,
, 35-36%.
39%.
,
240-260 ,
570
C
( 580C
). ,
1970- , .
,
.
(.) 42-45%,
.
(IGCC)
, .
IGCC,
. (.)
42%. ,
IGCC- 50%.
PCC-
. (FBC)
. : (BFBC bubbling FBC)
(CFBC circulating FBC),
. CFBC 200-300 PCC ,
.
, ()
. ,
.
, .
5

215

,
.
,
. ,

,
, . , ,
.
( )
; . ; ,
.

. ,
. 90- NGCC

.
NGCC
- 60%.
, ,
, .
, , .
(.) 60%,
46-49% .
4.5, ,

CO2.

CO2 . ,
30%, 15% CO2 33%.
(NOx).
CO2 ,
, (. 4.3). , 4.3,
.

216

4.3.

CO2 6

$0



















 




CO2 , .



CO2. , , : , , ,
, .
5% ,
10-20 . ,
20% 40- .
,
, , , (Armor, 1996). ,

. ,
.

.
. ,
, , ,
.
6

217

, (Paterson and Wilson, 2002).


,
, , , , ,
4.4-4.9. ,
7. (50200 , 200400
400 ). , ,
, .
15 . 40 60 , .
30 . .
NOX, .

1970

. 40-60 , 2010-2030 . , ,
,
.
15
, .
20 , .




,
. - ,
, . , -,
. ,
, .

NGCC
:
7

218

60% ( LHV).

 : 450-600 ./ 1000-1200
./ .


NGCC,
( ).


50%.



4.4.































4.5.
























































































 















































219



4.6.



















4.7.













 










































































 

























































4.8.













































































220



4.9.


















































































NGCC
. F

( 200 ) 90- .
, , , .
,
:
, .
NGCC
- H

60% ( LHV

). , NGCC-
CO2
3-6% - .

8. , , .
. , , NGCC

-,
.


, , (. 4.1).
,

,
.
8

221

, NOx.
, . ,
. , ,
,
.


NGCC
. 60-75% , ,
40%.
NGCC
, . NGCC

, , , .

4
4.1

. ,
, . .
600C. ,
650C 700C, 90- , . ,
.
700-750C.
, ,
, - (Fleming, 2002).
.
. , , . .

700C. , . (.) USC
50%.
.
USC , .

222

:



SC USC .
SC 540C
,
USC
580
C
. SC .
.
, , 60 .
USC 593C (Australian Black
Coal Utilisation Research Ltd., 2003).
USC . USC ,
700C ,
.


USC
12-15% , ,
, 13-16%
.
USC
40-50% .
, (Viswanathan, 2003).
SC
5%
.


. 20 ,
29% , CO2
3,9 . ,
45%, CO2 36%, .. 1,4 /.
4%. , c USC 2010.
, SC USC
4%. , 2020. USC
50-55%.

223


SC
USC

. ,
, ,
. .




(
FBC
) , , . (SO2),
,
( ), . . ;
.
760-870C
, .
, .
, , .
FBC
(
BFB
) (
CFB
). , , .
CFB ,
.
. CFB, CO2,
.
, ,
, , ,
.


CFBC ,
250-300 .
,
CFBC- .

224


; . CFBC- ,
(PCC) ,
. SC
CFBC-. , ,
SC 460 . 2009

. , (.) 43%.
CFBC SC 600 .
FBC-
, , 500 ; , , .
FBC
, , CO2 ,
.

CFBC- (Marion, et al., 2003).
CO2.
. , , , :
 . O2/CO2
O2 40% , ..
,
.
 SO2.
900C.

, .
,
.
SO2 ,
O2/CO2 O2 21% 30%;
.
.
 NOX. NOx ,

.
.

225

 CO. CO
CO2 .
,
CO 1,2-1,8 O2/CO2
O2 21% 30%, .


.

( 850
C
), . .
44%; . ,
(
Pressured

Fluidised
-
Bed

Combustion

PFBC
) . PFBC 80 ; , ,
. SC
.
, , PFBC ,
,
, .
PFBC


IGCC
. .



, CO2. , ,
. , ,
, CO2, ,
, , ,
O2.



(
IGCC
) : (1) , ,
; (2)

226


, , ;
(3) ; (4) -; .
IGCC
. , ,
, , 9.
75% IGCC
.



IGCC
. . IGCC
, . 235
1993. , ,
30% .
42%. 335 , ,
. , , 260 .
250 , ,
. IGCC
225 , 2008.
. ,
, , ,
, .
75

SVZ
Schwarze

Pumpe

. IGCC ,
.


, . ,
, , , , , ,
.
9

227

. ,
, , , , . ,
, , ,
.


IGCC- 20%
, PCC-. General Electric Bechtel,
Siemens ConocoPhillips
, , ,
, PCC-.
, IGCC
, 1400 ./,
48%. , - , PFBC SC
. NGCC

. IGCC

(Combined-Cycle Gas Turbine CCGT).


IGCC, ,
, 45%, 2020. 50%.


IGCC

, ,
. , , , ,
. , , .
.
:

.



, , , .
,

228

. , . ,
. ,
, ,
() ,
.
, .
(Combined Heat and Power CHP),
(.) 45%,
90%. ,
CO2.
(Molten Carbonate Fuel
Cells MCFC)
. .
, . (> 650
C
),
( ). ,
, .
(.) 50% (IEA, 2005d). ,
MCFC 60%,
90%. ,
, - , .
(Solid-
O
xide
F
uel
C
ells SOFC) ;
.
. , (.) SOFC

70%, 80-85%. (.)


53% (IEA,
2005
d
). 800-1000
C

, SOFC.
.
SOFC
. -

229

, , .
.
(Proton-Exchange
Membrane Fuel Cells PEMFC)
.
.
,
CHP .



13-15 . ./,

500-700 ./.
MCFC , 1650
./. . ,

. MCFC 200 2
, 26% (Blesl, et al., 2004).


. , ,
, 2050. 3% , .. 180-300 (IEA, 2005d).
, , , .

20-50%. , , , .
IGCC-, .
(.) 5-10%.
, , .
2020., 10 .

230

(. 4.6).
,
. , 2050. .
4.6. -
( )
(.) ,
2015-2030.
(% LHV)


,
2015-2030.
(./)

NGCC,
PCC,
CFBC,
IGCC,

>60
>50
>45
>50

>50

(./)
2015

2030

2050

400-500
1000-1150
1000
1250

0,032-0,036
0,041
0,035-0,04
0,04-0,05

0,035-0,045
0,035-0,04
0,035-0,04
0,035-0,04

0,045-0,05
0,035-0,04
0,035-0,04
0,035-0,04

1250

0,15

0,10

0,05-0,08

: 10%. , 5 ./ 2030.,
6,5 ./ 2050. 2 ./ .
2 ./ . , 0,05 ./
, .
, .

CO2:

CO2

CO2 (.
4.10): (1) CO2,
; (2)
CO2 ; (3) CO2
,
, .
, CO2. ,
. CO2 ,
, .
CO2
,
. , . ,
,

4.10. , CO2 (CCS)




231

232

, .
CO2
600 . CO2
.

( Sleipner

). 1996

. 1 CO2 . ,

. CO2
Weyburn
. 2001

. 2 CO2 . O2
; .
, , CO2 .
,
CO2 ,
. , . , ,
.
CO2.
( ) . ,
.
, CO2 , , ,
, .
CO2 , ,
.
CO2 ,
( ). CO2 , CO2 ,
( ).
CO2.
,
, . ,
CO2, . ,

233

.
CO2 100
. CCS.
CO2 .

IGCC
CO2 . IGCC
USC
CO2 , (chemical looping)
,
, .
( ),

. CCS.
CO2
(IPCC, 2005).
, CCS

. , , ,
, , , . , , ,
, , . CCS
, .

CO2

CCS 40-90 .
CO2
. 20-40 . , 10 . . CO2 .
, 2030.
25 . CO2 .
.

234

CCS
0,02-0,03 ./. 2030.

CCS
0,01-0,02 ./ ( , ).
, , CO2 - .
CO2
, , . 1-5 .
CO2 100 .
CO2 , . 1-2 . CO2, , ,
,
. CO2 .
(Enhanced Oil Recovery EOR)
0,1 0,5 CO2. 45 ./
30-160 . CO2, .
CO2 EOR, .
, CO2
, ,
(
), . , CO2,
CO2 , CO2.
.


CO2 .
, - CCS.

CCS
.
.
CO2.
, , . ,
, ,

235

, ,
, .
3,3%
. ; , ,
CO2, ,
CO2 (Elvestad, 2003).

, CO2 .
, . IGCC

.
, , - ,
. , CO2 , . ,
.
.
, , ,
. , ,
(Climate Change, Clean
Energy and Sustainable Development).
2007 2008.



2 , (. 4.2).
CCS CO2. , ,
. ,
,
CCS. 2 CO2, , .
CO2 .
CO2.
CCS

CO2. -

236

, .
4.2

 CO2
?

,
CO2 CCS 2015.
CCS
50-100 .
,
CO2 . , CO2 , ,
.
CCS , . 2030. - , 2015.
CCS 10 CO2 .
CCS 10 . , , ,


.
, .
. -
CO2, , , , , , .

, , .
, 2015.
, .
500 1 .,
CCS. CCS 100
./; . ,
. - 30%.
.
,
- . , ,
- .
CCS ,
. CCS
CO2 , . ,
,
CO2. CCS , .
, CO2,
,
CO2.

237

, ,
, . CO2 CCS
. . .
, CO2
. , ,
CO2 ,
.

, CO2.
Sleipner
,
.
,
. ,
CO2 , .
.
,

,
.
CO2, , :

 SC , CO2
.

 SC ,
.


CO2.
 CO2.

238


, CO2

CO2
, . , , , . CO2
13% (
3-4%). ,
, .
,
. CO2.
, CO2 9%.
35-36% (
LHV
). , , , .
, .
CO2 ,
, . CO2 , .
,
. .
, CO2 ,
, .


,
CO2

.
CO2 , , , CO2
.
CO2 , .
.
(
IEA
Greenhouse
Gas

R
&
D

Programme
) SC

239

; , 35% ( LHV).
CO2 .
, , , , , ,
,
. CO2 ,
,
. , CO2
CCS.
, 5-10 ,
. CO2 ,
CO2,
SO2 NOx,
, .
CO2 .
. , , .
SOx, .
, CO2, , 11% 0,2% SOX.
. .
Vattenfall Company

Schwarze
Pumpe

. .
30 ( 10
). ,
. , .
2008.

Collide

A
, , CS

Energy
(
Spero
, 2005). -

240

, CO2. 30 ; 25 .
, : ,
( ). 115 (80 ), .
90% CO2, .
2009.,
2010.


CO2
IGCC
- ().
. . ,
.
, . IGCC- CO2
. CO2 ,
. H2 General

Electric

,
.
, CO2 , CO2 ,
. CO2 .
. ,
, , CO2 ,
CO2 . ,
, CO2 .
, CO2 ,
. , CCS IGCC
, IGCC. IGCC
, -

241

, IGCC . ,
IGCC CO2
. ,
.

IGCC
,
CO2. Fu
tureGen
. CO2.


CO2
CO2 NGCC
. , , .
CCS

. , CO2 ,
. British Petroleum
.
CO2.
CO2 , ,
CO2 ; , CO2
. 50 .
CO2 .
. , ,
2050.
25 . CO2.
CO2
. , .
CO2. , CO2
, , . , ,
( ),
. , ,
.

2025

, CC,

900

1400
56

39

25
33

51

38
40
47

42

-4

-5

-3
-7

-8

-8
-6
-9

-8

-8

13

12
21

16

21
15
19

19

22

39


(%)

85

85

85
85

85

85
85
85

95

85

85


(%)

54

20

15
32

49

39
26
54

25

29

33

(./
CO2)

5,39

5,26

3,35
10,06

5,41

6,73
5,71
5,73

5,70

6,10

6,79

(/
)

3,75

3,75

2,35
7,46

3,75

3,75
3,75
3,75

3,75

3,75

3,75




(/)

1,64

1,51

1,00
2,60

1,66

2,98
1,96
1,98

1,95

2,35

3,04

(/)

, IGCC SOFC
2035
2100
56
-4
7
100
37
6,00
3,75
2,25
, CC SOFC
2030
1200
66
-4
6
100
54
5,39
3,75
1,64
: 10%, 30 .
, 5-40%. . 1,5 ./;
3 ./. , CO2 100 . CO2 . . CA = Chemical Absorbtion . CC = Combined Cycle ;
CFB = Circulating Fluidised Bed ; IGCC =Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle c ; SOFC = Solid Oxide
Fuel Cell ; USC = Ultra Supercritical . IGCC 2010.
Shell, 2020. E-gas.
, 2010-2020. ( H-), . - . 4%, :
= ( (0,11 +0,04)/31,54/ + /) 0,036.

2020

, CFB,

1620
3000

, IGCC
2020
, IGCC
2025

2100
1635
800

2010
2020
2010
800

1675

2030

36

-12

(%)

2020

1720

2020

31

(%)

, CC,

1850


(./)

2010

CO2


, ,
CA
, ,
+ CA
, USC , + CA
, IGCC, Selexol
, IGCC, Selexol
, CC, CA

4.7.

242
:

243


4.7 CO2.
, CO2
100 , CO2.
- CO2 12%
4% .
4-5 ./ ,
,
CO2, .
, ,
, . , CCS
0,01-0,02 ./.
. ,
- 2000. 0,11 ./.
CCS 10-20%.
4.7, CO2
. , . , .
CO2 . 39% , 11-29% , ,
, , , , 6% (.
4.7). ,
, CCS.
CO2, . CO2,
CO2
CO2 (Mllersten, et al., 2003; Mllersten, et al., 2004).
, , , , .
IGCC 25-50
, IGCC

500-1000 . , .
.
, ,
, ,

244

, ,
.
, CO2 ,
. , , , CO2
, , .
CO2
( 4.7), .
(. 4.3 ).
- CO2
.
.
CCS (Klara, 2003).
, . . , .
. CCS
, ,
4.7.

245


:


2003

. (
Renewable

Energy
RE

) 18% . , ,
880 ( 160 ).
RE

, 16% ,. 1% . ,
0,7%.

,
(. 4.8).
RE ( 4.8
) , .
- ( 4%). 80% , -
. - 70%
, .
4.8.

, 2003. (%)
RE


9,3

59,2

13,1
17,5

11,2

2,0

8,0


16,7

,
24,4

17,1

RE (
)

RE (
)

2,4
1,7
4,0

10,5
12,8
0,8

30,2
3,1
2,7

3,6

17,6

37,0

2,1
0,6
0,9

3,6
0,2
0,6

6,8
0,6
0,7

0,2

8,4

0,8

0,1

1,7

0,0

0,3

3,2

0,5

246

15,0
12,8
18,3
70,9
2,9
17,8

0,1
0,9
3,2
2,6
0,0
1,9

10,7
2,8
5,0
21,4
0,6
100,0

0,8
1,7
8,6
6,6
0,0
100,0

- 80- 90- (. 4.9).


RE

, 90- . , , , .
1989 2000.
22% , . - , 2003. 2645 .
: 200 , 54 , 69 .
4.9.
(%)
1971-1988
1989*-2000
2000-2003
RE
3,4
2,4
1,0

3,3
2,2
0,3
**
11,4
3,9
1,2

4,0
3,5
5,9
/ ***
4,9
21,8
24,8
* 1988., .
** IEA Geothermal Implementing Agreement 6,1% 1995-2000 . 3,2% 20002004.
*** .
: IEA, 2005b; IEA2005c.

, , , . (10-30
) , 2004. 4 . 24 ; 2000-2004 . 1 ,
, , , , ,
.
, , , , , . ,
, , , .

, , , -

247

,
- ; (municipal solid waste MSW).
, ,
, , , , .
.
- , .

; , ,
, , .
20% ; 2009. 25%.
2004. 47
(39 ). , , , .
(
photovoltaic

PV
) : , .

90- ; 350
.
.
, , , ,
.
; , ,
.
,
,
, .
CO2, ( ) CO2.
, (greenhouse gas GHG),
. : SO2 1%,
NOX 1%, CO2 5%. , 1 , 6000 ,
4 . CO2 275 SO2.

248



RE

, , . , ,
, . , , ,
.

RE
, , ,
, . ,
, ,
. , ,
- 1980- , RE
.
, ,
RE
. ,
.
,
.
, -
; , , RE.
,

(IEA, 2005e). ,
,
RE ,
. , , , .

. , RE

, RE ,
RE;
.

249

,
, , , . RE

, ,
, .
RE ,
, , . , ,
,
. -
.
RE
, RE

, .

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
, ().



, , : ,
, ; , ; ; ;
.
, , , . -

250

, , .

. .
RE .

.
. , , .
30%, 20-50 .
,
(Combined Heat and Power CHP),
, 33-34% ( LHV)
540C; ,
(.) 40%.
, (.) ~22%
( LHV); (.) 30%.
,
CHP
(.) 28%.

, , . , ()
.
, 10. .
.
.
35-45%.
, , (.
4.3).
10% .
, , ,
( ).

,
( , )
, . 1816 .
(Robert Stirling), , .
10

251

4.3

 :
CO2


150
. 100 , ,
, . 40 ,
10. , , , , .
0,5 10% ( 5%).
, , RE;
100-300 ./.
: 1)
, ; 2) ,
. , ,
, RE,
, ,
.
. 1% 10%
, 10% ,
. , 40%, , 30%, , . . ,
, , .
, ,
, .
40% .
8 CO2
60 . 5%
, CO2 300 . ,
CO2
, ,
, .
, ,
, NOX SO2

252

(, ), .
.
. ,
.
, , , , , .
.
, , ,
, , . ,
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276


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295


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http://www.eere.energy.gov/de/power_generation.html
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302

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305


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307

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308

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310

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312

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313



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314

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315

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316


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317

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318


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319

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320


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322



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323

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324


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325


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326

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327

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328

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330

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331

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332

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333

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334

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335

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336

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338

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339

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340

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341

, .
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(%)
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20102015

20152020

20202025

20252030

20302035

20352040

20402045

20452050

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25,0

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342

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343

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5.6.

 
 






 



 




 







 
 




 















2050 .


() ,
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344

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345

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346

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.

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347

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348

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. 5.7 FAME
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, .
, .
,
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FAME
, ,
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349

,
. 2050 . 20 E
( 450 ), 45 E ( 1000 ).



5.7.

 
 
 

'".&



#5-



 



 



 
 
 
 



 


 












--.
. 5.7 :
;
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350

5.4.

14
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, .

 

5.8. :
, 19612004 .


























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1960 .



351


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352


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353

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354

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355

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356


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357


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358

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359

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360


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(. .)

2003-2015

2015-2030

2030-2050

, ,

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, .

NOX



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361

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362

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363

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364

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2015-2030

2030-2050

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365

5.4

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2030-2050


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15,6 17,2

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59

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125 224

116 209

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366

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374

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105 188

102 183

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121 218

118 212


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377


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378

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379

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, NOX .
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,

380

. NOX .
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381

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382


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383

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2004 .

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,
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.
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384

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385

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3750 ., . , , , ,
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119 214

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, ,
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, .
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94 169
109 95
2015-2030
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115 - 205
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108 - 194

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17 18,8

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99 178

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2030-2050.

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96 - 172

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100 - 179

108 - 193

94 168

96 173
111 - 199

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95 - 171

2003-2015 .

80 143

83 148

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91 163

3,5 6,3

17,1 18,9

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80 - 143

3,1 5,5

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89 - 159

77 138

3 5,4

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388
:

389

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390

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. .
, , .

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100 ./ , . 50 ./, .
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391

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. FCVs

, ,
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392

FCVs, ,

.
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393

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.

394

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395

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396


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397

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398



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399

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400

401


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, , , -

402

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 .
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403

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404


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406

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407

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408

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409

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410

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411

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412

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413


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429

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451


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486

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488

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.

7.1.

, .
-, , .
2004 . ,
. , ,
30%, 20% ,
.
, , . , .
2004 . 224 , 56% , 25,8% , 2003 .
250 , 80
. .

7.9 , , . ,

, , ,
. 20% . , CO2 200
/ .
15% ( ) 40% ( , ) (Kim and Worrell, 2002).
CO2 , , ,

BOF
, -

490

, BOF .
, . CO2
100 / .
. 7.9.

, 2003 .7


















 




20-30 %.
2003 . 3 ,
, () (2).
,
, . ,
2. ,
, :
Fe2O3 + 4 C + 3 O2 2 Fe + 2 (CO + 2).
2:
Fe2O3 + 1,5 C 2 Fe + 1,5 2).

. .
10% ( ), 2 100 /
. ,
7
- 500 3, 500-2000 3,
3
2000 . (Chiang ., 1998).

491

- ,
. ,
, (Naito ., 2006).
- 2 10%.
7.2. :

. .
, - DRI .
,
. 2000 . 3,4 ,
2,4 -, 5,5 DRI. .
41
. DRI
, . COREX.

.
300 . BF-BOF
. 2000 .
. - 650 800 , ,
- .
, , 1,5 2 ,
10-20%, .
, , 60% ; 40%
. , , : 400500 . ,
(900 ),
.
, , , , .

492

2
. :
.
2.
.
.

. , . ,
.
,
. , ,
,
, 8 , 1 , 2
100 /.
.
. ;
. 0,4 , 20 .
: - ; ,
; ; ,
.
2
, .
2,
, .

493

.
.
, , , . ,
, 2. , 50 . 2.
. 7.3
7.4
.
7.3.

2003-2015

2015-2030

2030-2050

(./)

50-55

50

50

(%)

10

0 0,05

0,05 0,1

0,1 0,2

2 (/)

7.4

2003-2015

2015-2030

2030-2050

(./)

60-70

60

55

(%)

50

75

90

0 0,02

0 0,03

0,03 0,1

2 (/)

700 ;
1250 2. , , 2
. 23-28%, 2
85-95%. ,
30% (Hallin, 2006).
,
20 30 . 2.

494

(DRI)
2 , 25 . 2.

DRI
2004 . 56 , 2 40-50 .
. DRI
, .
2 0,51,5 /
. DRI,
2 2050 . 400 / ( 7.5). . ULCOS (Ultra Low 2
Steelmaking) 2,
2 .
,
, 2 .
7.5. 2
.

2

(./ 2)
2.
(%)
2
(/)

2003-2015

2015-2030

2030-2050

120

110

75

80

85

0,1

0,4


,
,
.
.

COREX
. ,
,
. 2002 . , , , 2,66
. 2005 . Baosteel
C-3000 COREX 1,5 /.

495

. ,
, . ,
,
, . , .

, . , .
COREX

, FINEX
COREX,
.

POSCO
FINEX 1,5 /
Pohang

Works
. HiSmelt.
, (
), ( ) .
, . ,
,
, 9
. 2 .
. , COREX,
1998 .
( )
10,3 ,
17 /, ( ). ,
.
. 2050 . 2
200 500 / ( 7.6).

496

7.6.

2003-2015

2015-2030

2030-2050

, ,

350

250

220

0-5

10-15

10-19

0-0,1

0,1-0,2

0,2-0,5

(./)

(%)
2
(/)

: , 350
. .


(Near-net-shape casting NNS casting) ,
, .
,
. 90% .
NNS
, ,
. ( . ) 1 10 , 120-300
.88 . 1-3 .
.
.
1856 . (
1 . ),
. 140 . 1975 .
,
NNS
, , , . .
.
,
8
, 30-60
. .
.

497

, .
.
,
( 500 .
). - , , 1
,
.
,
. 0,9 43 ,
0,2 .
90%.
, NNS
. 1,7 . , - 30-60%
. 2 100
/ ( 7.7).
7.7.

2003-2015

2015-2030

2030-2050

(./)

200

150-200

150-200

(%)

80

90

90

0-0,01

0-0,03

0-0,1

2 (/)

: 70 ./ ,
.

, , , , , .

498

. CO2, . 2004 .
2000 . 4 5 , 8 10 .
.
-,
95% . , 950.
,
20 40% . 594 1970 . 2000 2004 .,
, . 2003 . 503
(30% ),
1447 (70% ).

,
.
7.10.

CO2





















$0

8PSME#VTJOFTT$PVODJMGPS4VTUBJOBCMF%FWFMPQNFOU 8#$4%


CO2 .
CO2 . CO2
3,5% CO2
CO2 .

499


.
CO2 2003 . 1,6 . 7.10
CO2
. 0,72 0,98 CO2
, .



, ( ),
.
(),
.
.
,
: , .
- , .
( 7.11).

- 3,7 .

. ,
, - . 1,76
.
3,06 , 5,3 7.1
(WBCSD, 2002).

. , 4 6
10%.

500


(. 7.8), CO2 .
7.11.

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0


(4-
)

(6-
)

/ 30-40% ,
.
7.8.


(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

65
71

2
6

33
23

0
0

58
52

2
6

13
22

26
15

58

23

13

48

42

100

94

24

72

58

<1

38

43

55

94

<1

80

10

82

93

87

11

50

25

16

96

12

78

68

<1

54

39

52

34

14

<1

67

23

20

36

24

12

501

66

24

29

36

29

82

16

52

30

: WBCSD, 2002, .


, 3
. ,
, 1,8 . ,

. 20
.
,
, . ,
. - ,
.
,
CO2 200-400 2050 . (.
7.9).
7.9.

2003-2015

2015-2030

2030-2050

50-80

40-60

30-50

10-15%

10-15%

10-25%

0.01 0.02

0.1 0.2

0.2 0.4

(./)
(%)
CO2 (/)


. ,
, , .
5-10%, .


.
.
- -

502

, . , , ,
. , ,
,
35 70% .
100%- .
,
. , .
53
(0,387 ), 41% ;
15 . 50 . ; , , ,
100.
, ,
, . , 2003 .
66 ,
.
112 34 . . ,
1-2 ,
.

/

, , ( ),
.
.
7.10. - . .
,
. ,
, .
,

503

. , , .
5% .
7.10.
-
(%)

-

(%)

(%)



(%)

95

75

30

25

45

65

45

10

: Gielen, 1997.

, . , . ,
.
; , .
CO2 2050 .
200 400
.
7.11.


(./)
CO2 (%)
CO2 (/)

2003-2015

2015-2030

2030-2050

010

010

010

<35%

35-65%

3565%

00.15

0.050.2

0.20.4


2
30% 20 50% .

504


1,6 . 2 . , 2. 2
, , 2 .
(
). ,
, 2 .
, 100% 2.
.
2 (
CCS
) ,
40-90%. 2
.
CCS
7.12.

7.12. 2

2


(./ 2)
2
(%)
2
(/)

2003-2015

2015-2030

2030-2050

500

250

150-200

95

95

95

0-0.25

0.25-0.75


(16 /), , (
).
, , , .
, ,
2 . , 2,
.

505

, , ( )
(, ). , ,
, . 25
50 .
, . . ,
, .
, . -
. , ,
.
.

.
(
)
, . .
,
( ) ,
, 20% .
(Phylipsen, et al., 2002).
. 70% ,
, 22,5 , :


 ,
, , .
.
.

506

( ) , , , , , , ,
. ( ) , . , ,
.


2004 . 110 . 55% , 30% , 10%
5 - . , .
7.13.
( )

4
5 6
7

645
324
168
50
104

569
250
144
50
124

842
803
16
23
0

638
465
125
48
0

635
441
151
44
0

355

431

157

362

365

11
139
62
40

8
114
40
21

60
61
6
26

15
267
12
63

14
204
33
108

12

21

: Neelis, et al., 2005

(. 7.13).
,
.
( ) . -

507

155 . 17% (25


).
(.. ,
) 5
.

, . (,
).
13,3
, 44% .
2,1
. 11,2 ,
1,5
,
.
, , 25 30
, 20 25 , 25-30% (Ren,
et al., 2005).
. ( , 1100C),
( , -),
.
3 .
1 (24
).

. , ,
-. , .

, , , , , .

.

508

65
, 63% , 34% ( ), 3% ,
. 5 12% ,
.
16-22%,


, . , , .
:
 .
 (
).

 ( ).
72%
, 24% 4% . 39% , 33% , 6%
22% .
30 , 14,5
, 24 17 p- . 40% , p- 19%. 75%
p-.
, o- . 60
.
1,5

. p- 0,8
. , , 5 10 ,

509

, , 0,4 0,8 . 61% ,


, 1,7
. .
, 2
.
, .

2004 . 32 .
-- ,
, . 26 1,2
( 30 ). , ,
20 . , , ,
1 . 1,5
, Lurgi MegaMethanol
( ).



, .
.
, .

.
.
.
80-90- . . ,
, , .
;

510

,
. ,

. :
.
.

 ,
.
 ,
.
2
10 2010 .. , ,
2050 . 5 100
( ). , , (Patel, et. al., 2005).
.
2 .
- .
,
( )
300 350 120-180 5-10 . .
64%.

. 3 ./ ( )
9 ./ ( 50 ./). 12 14 ./.
, , , 2007 .
20
. 25 . .

511

4 (75 ) 2020 . 0,5 2040 . (Naber


et al., 2004).

. , 0,25-0,32
. , 7 ./. 0,40 .
(19 ./),
8,30 . . , .. 1 0,4 .

(Patel, et al., 2005), 50 . .
. . 8 12 . ,
5-7 . 2030 .,
100-140 . . ,
, 225 . 11 ./ (Ekbom, et al., 2003).
75 80% , , . . 1 , ,
.
,
.

.
, , , - .
,

.
, .
,
. 2020 . , ,
.

512

90- . . -
, .
,
, , , . 7,50
./ ( , ,
1 2 . ). ,
, . , ,
,
. ,
, .
Cargill 2001 . 140 . . , . Dow Chemicals
2005 . CSM
, ,
, .
135 . . 100
. . .
50 . , 0,1%
.
, , .
.
DuPont Tate&Lyle ,
1,3-,
.
40%, 25% ,
,
, 1,80 . .
.
, ,
, , .
, , -

513

. 2004 . Metabolix Archer Daniels Midland


, . Archer
Daniels Midland 100 .,
, 2008 ., 50 . . 3 ./.
7.14 2.
, 2050 .
,
2.
- . 7.15
.
7.14. 2

(/ )

2
( 2/ )

51

3.7

19

1.0

n/a

195

8.3

45

n/a

28

0.9

33

1.6

: Patel, et al., 2003.

7.15.



(./)

2
, %
2
( /)

2003-2015

2015-2030

2030-2050

500015 000

200010 000

10005000

50%

70%

80%

00.05

0.050.1

0.10.3

514

2003 . 132 . ; , ,
. 80% ,
15% ( ) 5% ( ).
, ,
1,3 , ,
. , , 1,7 ,
, . 2003 .
3,8 1,3
(. 7.16). 20%
, .
7.16. , 2003 .

( /
)

(/
)

(/)

(/)

(/)

11.8

36

100

426

14.9

37.9

105

565

18.7

39.9

111

746

5.4

43.6

121

235

61.4

40

111

636

500

1320

7.9

36

100

285

1.4

36

100

49

9.8

36

100

351

1.1

36

100

40

132.4

39.4

109

3333

500

1320

: (2003)

35 38 . 28 .
21,2 , ,
, 120 .
18,7
. , 2,5
.

515


60%.
7.17 ; 1 3 , 10%.
7.17.



(/)

(/)

(./
)

(%)

(%)

(%)

4.0

1.0

30.0

10

15

10

1.4

0.4

6.3

20

25

20

0.9

0.5

18.8

30

30

30

0.5

0.5

7.5

90

90

90

0.8

0.5

2.5

10

10

l0.7

0.5

7.5

30

50

30

0.3

1.0

3.8

10

25

20

: Rafiqul, et al., 2005

2 . 2 (4N2) .
0,88 2. , 2, 150 2
.


(NaOH)
. .
2004 . 44 , 2010 . 52 .
0,44 , :
.
.
.

516

(. 7.18).
63% .
.
50%- . 12% .
30%, .
7.18.

(/ Cl2)


(/ Cl2)

11.8

10.0

2.2

8.6-9.2

0.6

: 0,3 /2 0,4 /2 .
: Gielen, 1997 Bommajaru, et al., 2001.

.
.
. 90% .

, , . , ,
.
. , , .
, ,
30%, .

. ,
. 40%
, , 50%
.

517


, , , , . , , , , ,
.
40%
. 40%
, . 20% (Wiesner and Chellam,
1999).
, ,
. ,
.
. ,
.
,
- .
, ,
. (
) . , ,
. ,
, ,
, . , , , , - ,
.

(Steigel, et al., 2003).
, , . 10% , (Martin,
et al., 2000).
10 ,
.

518

, 20% 60%.
.
, , (. 7.19).
(
)
.
7.19.

2003-2015

2015-2030
,

2030-2050

8%

10%

15%

(%)

15%

17%

20%

00.03

0.1

0.2

2
(. /)

-
- 5,9
.
.
:
;
;
;
.
,
, . . , .

. ,
, .

519

2004 . 337
. 126 ,
36 , 19
. ( )
339 . , ,
149 , 44% ,
.
126 (121
) .
. . ,
.

. ,
,
- 9.
22 .
, .
7.20.
7.20. -

(/ )

(/ )

-3.4

8.3

14.3

0.7

13.0

0.9

19.3
12.1
16.1
12.9

2.8
1.8
2.5
2.0

0.3

0.7

1.2

0.5

( )

5.1

2.2

7.3

: Jochem, et al., 2004; STFI, 2005

, CO2,
. , ,
9
, .

520

.
, ,
, , .
- ,
, , , .
2003 . 60% .
,
, ,
.
,
. , , ,
. , ,
. ,
, 10,4 - , 2 .
13,6
- ( ) , 1,8 -
(STFI, 2005).
,
. , ,
, , .
, , . .
.
2003 . - 1,9
, . ,
, , . , 2003 .
2,3 .

521

. 7.21
.
10% . , .
7.21. - (
10% )

(/)

(/)



(/)

(/)

(/)

(/)

12.25

2.08

0.00

0.00

12.25

2.08

5.39

1.62

4.22

1.12

1.16

0.50

5.07

1.91

4.12

1.48

0.95

0.43


(1-3
)

5.70

2.59

4.75

2.12

0.95

0.47


(4-5
)

7.08

4.54

4.96

2.16

2.11

2.38

14.68

3.46

11.62

2.09

3.06

1.37

: Schepp and Nicol, 2005

, 7.21,
3,1 , 1,2 1,1 2004 . 85%,
5,7 .
, ,
. , .
(),
.
, , , .
CO2 - , , , , .
, . ,
.
,

522

,
. ,
. .

.
23 .
, , 45 .
. ,
,
.


, .
- , , ,
, ,
- ( ). - ( ,
, 65-75%) . , -
.

. , .
. , (Black
Liquor Gasification

-
Combined
Cycle

BLGCC

), , , , , .
,
.
,
. , ,

.

523

,
. , ,

. , .
( ) . Chemrec Company
2008 .
(), () .
.
,
BLGCC
, , 60-90% - . BLGCC 16-17%
, 0,04 ./.
2003 . 185 , 2,3 . , 2025 .
3,3 . - ,
220-335 .
10%,
, 3 300
. 0,5 0,8
,
. CO2 30 75
(. 7.22).
7.22.



(./)

(%)
CO2
(/)

2003-2015

2015-2030

2030-2050

300-400

300-350

300

10-15%

10-20%

15-23%

00.01

0.010.03

0.030.1

BLGCC IGCC ,
CO2. ()
BLGCC 28%, CO2 25%. -

524


44%. CO2, 320 /. CO2 ,
CO2 , , .

. ( ,
, ).


,
. ,
. 30% ,
15-20%. , ,
;
, .
( ) : , ( ), .
.
,
,
40-50 ,
90-95% .

( , , ). ( ) . ,

,
CO2 .
, (-

525

, ), . . ,

, 5-15 .
.
,
. . ,
.
80- .
, , .
, ,
. 38%
.

.
, . , .

,
, , , . . ,
.

, ,
. ( ,
) ,
.
,
, ,
.
. - ,
, ,
. -

526

, .
.
. ,
- - . -

.
25-30%
, - .
, 20-30%, 0,7
.
7.23.



(./)

(%)
CO2
(/)

2003-2015

2015-2030

2030-2050

800-1100

700-1000

600-700

20%-30%

20%-30%

20-30%

00.01

0.010.02

0.020.05


, (
, ). .

. , ,
.
,
(Al2O3) , , .
,
- 50-55
.

527

60 .
20 .
, , , , .
.
;
15% ( , , 2000 .).
,
, , .
, , .
45 . Al2O3
40%.
,
.
. ()
. -
. 11 . 9,5
. 2004
. 10,0 12,6 , 11,4 (.
7.24). 1 2
. 60
0,68 .
.
7.24.
, 2004 .
/

12.6

10.4

10.0

11.9

12.4

11.4

: World Aluminium, 2006a.

528

.
,
, -
.
15 18 ,
14 16,5
( , 2001b). - ,
.

20%,
, , ,
. 15 268 (. 7.25). 2004 . 30,2 .
1,66 , 3,5%
.
18 . ,
7,4
. , 0,80 .
7.25.
, 2004 .
/

14 337

15 613

15 551

15 427

15 275

14 768

15 268

: World Aluminium, 2006b.

, 13
(46,8 ) , 11
(39,6 ).
. -

529



CO2, ,
( ) . ,
,
.
, 25- .
,
5 .
10-20% - ( 13 11 / ). , 18
,
. , .
;
.
7.26.




(./)

(%)
CO2
(/)

2003-2015

2015-2030

2030-2050

N/A

N/A

5%15%

10%20%

N/A

00.05

0.050.2

, , , -

530

. 85%,
, - .
65%, .
.

. .

. ,
. ,

. , .

(US DOE, 2002):
;
;

;

);

;
;
;

;


;

;

531

;
.
.
7.27
.
7.27.


(%)

(. / )



(%)

,

(%)

5%

50%

25%

5%

75%

25%

5%

10

75%

50%

2%

100%

50%

12%

75%

50%

10%

10

75%

50%

25%

20

25%

10%

020%

30

10%

0%

010%

10

50%

25%

15%

40

25%

10%

05%

20

75%

50%

13%

50%

25%

: US DOE, 2002

, , , , . ,
. , , .
.

(. 7.1).


() ; , .
,

532

,
, ,
. , ,
.

,
.
,
.
, . , . ,
10 20% . , ,
6 , 10%
(. 7.12). , , ;
5 15 , ,
, , ,
,
. .
, .

7.12.

, 1992-2003 .

90

80
70

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

533




. 100
CO2 60%. 7,5%
1971 . 29,5% 2003 . , ,
, . .
, ,
, , ,
. () = 31% () = 49%
( 45 75
), 1 1,58
3,23 . () 55%, () 85%,
, , 3,56 . , 12,3% , .

11,1%
27,3% (Lemar, 2001). , ,
.

. , , , . , , ,
. ( , , ) - ( ).
48 , 1
.
.
40 42%. -

534

GE LM2500
34-40%. , 2010 .

45%.
,
.

(repowering) ,
, . , , ,
,
20% .
, 35 .


,
.
. ,
, ,
. 1990
. General Electric
. , -
, .
.
.
,
,
, .
, ,
. ,
2025 .
.
.

535

. ,
,
, , , .
,
,
, . ( 20 ). ,
, 1,4 43%.
.
, .
(25-500 ) 26% 30%. , , , .

17%. ,
,
.
.
(PEM) () 35 45%, (MCFC)
(SOFC) () 40 50%.

PEM
,
. MCFC SOFC
. MCFC
. - 11 . ./. SOFC 40%,
53%. , SOFC - (. 7.28). 200
SOFC , ,
2030 . SOFC-
. ,
.

536

. . 93% ,
20% 80%.
7.28.

( )
( ())

2010

2030

USD 1000

USD 5000

USD 1000

200

200

200

SOFC-CHP

( ())

326

244

164

(%)

38%

45%

55%

, (%)

90%

85%

90%


30%


25%

40 000

70 000

5 000

5 000


(%)
()
( )

5 000

: Lokurlu, et al., 2003

Dow Chemical General Motors


PEM ,
, , .
PEM
AKZO . ,
100 5
,
, .
, ,
, , ,
.
, . ,
, . .

 ( )
,
.

537


,
;

.

;

(
),
.
7.29.
()

2003-2015

2015-2030

2030-2050

, ,

10%

10%15%

10%15%

20%

10 % 20%

15%30%

00.05

0.010.1

0.10.4


(%)
CO2 (/)

CO2

CO2.
, .
CO2 7%,
14%. - . ,
CO2
.
CO2
, . ( , 10 ).
7.30. CO2


CO2

(./ CO2)
CO2
(%)
CO2
(/)

2003-2015
,

200-500

2015-2030
,
150-400

2030-2050

90%

90-95%

90-99%

00.5

0.51.5

100-250

538


60% , , 30%
. , , , , .
: , , , ,
(, , ,
..), ,
(, ,
..).
. , 29%.
500 .,
10 . (Keulenaer ., 2004).
.
, , . . ,
,
, .
,
.
.

, , 15-20%,
. . :


;
 ,
,
,

539

,
;

 (,
,
);
;

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, , , ;
;
, ;
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. -, ,
,
, , ,
. -, ,
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, , ;

, , . -, , , /, ,
, ,
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/.
, 20-30% ,

540

. 2000 .
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. 90- . 88% ,
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. . ,

100 (Brunner and Niederberger, 2006).
.
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, ,
.
. . , ,
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.
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.
,
,
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.
37 76% , 3 55%. ,

( ),
. , ,
, ;
, ,
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541

, , 70%
(Brunner and Niederberger, 2006).
:

;
 ,
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;
, ;
 ,
.
:


, ;
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;
;
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.

. ,
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.

542


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, , , . -173C
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, , , , , .
Rockwell Automation
1000 .. American Superconductor
5000 .., .
, . .
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, , ,

.
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, . ,
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543

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.

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.
, . ,

.

544

, . 31 .

(Worrell, et al., 2004 .).
7.31.

2025 .

2025 .


, .

.

1-3

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,
.
.

, ,

50150%

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ASD


: Worell, et al., 2004.

15-25% .

545


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,
,

.
, , .
7.32.

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,

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.
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. ASD

.
: Worell, et al., 2004.

7.33.




(%)
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2003-2015
, ,

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( , ) ,
. ,
,
. -

546


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, , . . 2003 .
38,1 ,
23,3
. 4,4 (19%) , 0,4 (2%)
, 4,8 (21%) .
, .

2,5 ,
125 2,5% ,
.
2003 . 26,7 . 1,4 (5,2%) , 14% . 2000 .
41 ; , 3,7%.
2000 . 0,73 . . 2002 .
13,9 .
10,6 , 9,1 ( 0,9
). ,
10 , 1,5
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, 3,64
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.
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. , 150 , 30-40 ,
5 8 .

547

. ,
. : 2004 .
401 , 968 ( IISI, 2005).
, , 578 .
.
.
, .
. : 30% 64% . -
.
, ,
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, , .
, .
10 20 ,
- , . ,
, . , ,
.

548

549


30 (IEA
Energy Technology Collaboration Programme IEA ETCP),
, ,
. .1.

, IEA ETCP ( 2006 .)

5000 , ,
, , ,
, , 40 , , .

550

,
, .
,
, , , ,
.
(Committee on Energy Research and Technology
CERT) .


(CERT)


( )

www.iea-coal.org.uk
http://iea-ccs.fossil.energy.gov
www.iea.org/eor
www.iea.org/tech/fbc/index.html
www.etsu.com/ieampf
www.ieagreen.org.uk

551



(SolarPACES)


, ,



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552


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Experiment )


(CTI)

(EETIC)
(ETDE)
(ETSAP)
, , .
www.iea.org/techagr





(Frequently Asked Questions).
:
:
:
:

 ,
,
(Energy Technologies at the Cutting Edge).


,

(Mobilising Energy Technology).


,
,
(IEA Framework).


,
(OPEN Energy Technology
Bulletin).

553

1
2050 .
: 2003 2030 .
3,2%, 2030-2050 .
2,6%. , 3,3%,
1971 2003 . , ,
.
.
2050 . .
, 2003 2050 .

2,1%, - 1,8% ,
1,5% . ,
.
.1.

( , %)

- ,

- ,
- ,


1971-2003

2003-2030

2030-2050

2003-2050

2.9
3.1

2.2
2.4

1.3
1.6

1.8
2.1

2.4
3.5

2.1
2.0

0.7
1.6

1.5
1.8

0.7
4.7
8.4
4.9
5.2
2.9
2.9
2.7
3.3

3.7
4.3
5.0
4.7
4.1
3.0
3.2
3.8
3.2

3.4
3.5
3.8
3.6
3.1
2.9
2.8
3.6
2.6

3.6
3.9
4.5
4.2
3.7
3.0
3.0
3.7
2.9

, WEO 2004 2005.

554

1971 2003 . 1,6% .


, 2050 . 0,9% 6,4 2003 . ( ) 9,1 2050 2. 1%
2003 2030 . 0,7% 2030 2050 .
:
2003-2050 . 1,1%. ,
, 2%. , .
- 0,1%
2050 .,
. ,
( , ), 76% 80% 2030 . 83% 2050 .
.2.

( , %)
1971-2003

2003-2030

2030-2050

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2.2

1.3

1.8

- ,

- ,

3.1

2.4

1.6

2.1

2.4

2.1

0.7

1.5

- ,

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1.6

1.8

0.7

3.7

3.4

3.6

4.7

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3.5

3.9

8.4

5.0

3.8

4.5

4.9

4.7

3.6

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5.2

4.1

3.1

3.7

2.9

3.0

2.9

3.0

2.9

3.2

2.8

3.0

2.7

3.8

3.6

3.7

3.3

3.2

2.6

2.9

2
,
World Population Prospects: the 2004 Revision.

555

,
,

, ,
, .


1
() API
, (American Petroleum Institute scale API). API,
: 25 API 0,904 /3, 42 API
0,815 /3.


. ,
, .


, ,
.

, , , , , .


,
, , .


.
4165 / 5700 /
.
4165 /.
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: , , , ,
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556

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, .


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.


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.


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, 2, .

(EOR)
, . ( -

557

)
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, , , ,
.

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. , .


; .
80 1000.
40 60%. -
, .

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.

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-.



5700 /,
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() .

,
, . ,
, ; , .

, , 100%.

558


, .


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IGCC , (,
) .

.

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LNG , -162
. , 600 .


,
.


, .


,
, , ,
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, , 33%.

, , , (
, , , ,
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, ,
, , .

559


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.
.

,

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.



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.

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.


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560

, ,
.


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.
: , , (
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.


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.

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561


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.

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: , , , , , ,
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, , , , , , ,
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562

, , , , , , , .


: , , , , , , ,
, , , , , , ,
, , , , , , .


AC Alternating current
AFC Alkaline fuel cell
AFR Africa
API American Petroleum Institute
ASU Air separation unit
ATR Autothermal reforming
AUS Australia and New Zealand
bcm Billion cubic metres
BKB Brown coal briquettes
boe Barrels of oil equivalent
BOP Balance of plant
CA Chemical absorption
CaCO3
Calcium carbonate
CAN Canada
CaO Calcium oxide
CAT Carbon abatement technologies
CBM Coal-bed methane
CC Combined cycle
CCC Clean coal centre
CCS CO2 capture and storage
CDM Clean Development Mechanism
CDU Crude distillation unit
CENS CO2 for EOR in the North Sea
CERT Committee on Energy Research and Technology
CFB Circulating fluid bed
CHI China
CHP Combined heat and power
CHOPS
Cold heavy oil production with sand
CNG Compressed natural gas
CO Carbon monoxide

563

CO2 Carbon dioxide


CRUST CO2 re-use through underground storage
CSA Central and South America
CSLF Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum
CSS Cyclic steam stimulation
CTL Coal-to-liquids
CUCBM
China United Coal-bed Methane Corporation
CUTE Clean Urban Transport for Europe
DC Direct current
DICI Direct-injection, compression-ignition
DISI Direct injection spark ignition
DME Dimethyl ether
DMFC Direct methanol fuel cell
DOE Department of Energy, United States
DRI Direct reduced iron
EC European Commission
ECBM Enhanced coal-bed methane recovery
EDI Energy development index
EEU Eastern Europe
EGR Enhanced gas recovery
ELAT Solid polymer electrolyte electrode
EPA Environmental Protection Agency, United States
EOH Ethanol
EOR Enhanced oil recovery
EPR European pressurised water reactor
ESPOO
ECE convention on trans-boundary impact assessment
ETP Energy Technology Perspectives
ETSAP Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme
EU European Union
EUR Euro
FCB Fuel cell bus
FCC Fluid catalytic cracker
FCV Fuel cell vehicle
FDI Foreign direct investment
FGD Flue gas desulphurisation
FSU Former Soviet Union
FT
Fischer-Tropsch
GB Governing Board, International Energy Agency
GDE Gas diffusion electrode
GDL Gas diffucion layer

564

GDP Gross domestic product


GEF Global Environment Fund
GHG Greenhouse gases
GIS Geographical information system
Gt Gigatones (1 tonne x 109)
GTL Gas-to-liquids
GWh Gigawatt-hour
GWP Global warming potential
H2 Hydrogen
HHV Higher heating value
HMFC Hydrogen membrane fuel cell
HRSG Heat recovery steam generator
HSA Hydrogen storage alloy
HTGR High temperature gas-cooled reactor
IBAD Ion beam assisted deposition
ICE Internal combustion engine
IEA International Energy Agency
IET International Emissions Trading
IGCC Integrated gasification combined-cycle
IND India
IPP Independent power producer
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPHE International Partnership for a Hydrogen Economy
JI
Joint implementation
JPN Japan
kWh Kilowatt-hour
KOH Sodium hydroxide
LDV Light duty vehicle
LH2 Liquid hydrogen
LHV Lower heating value
LNG Liquefied natural gas
LPG Liquefied petroleum gas
LTF Low temperature flash
mb/d Million barrels per day
Mbtu Million British thermal units
MDG Millennium Development Goals
MCFC Molten carbonate fuel cell
MEA Middle East
MEA MonoEthanol amine
MeOH Methanol

565

MEX Mexico
MgCl2
Magnesium chloride
MgO Magnesium oxide
MOF Metal-organic framework
mpg Miles per gallon
MSC Multiple service contract
MTBE Methyl tertiary butyl ether
MWh Megawatt-hour
NGCC
Natural gas combined-cycle
NGL Natural gas Liquid
NGO Non-governmental organisation
NOx Nitrogen oxides
ODA Other developing Asia
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OPEC Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries
ORMOSILs Organically modified silicates
OSPAR
Oslo Convention and Paris Convention for the Protection of the
Marine
Environment of the North-East Atlantic
OxF OxyFueling
PA
Physical absorption
PAFC Phosphoric acid fuel cell
PCSD Pressure cyclic steam drive
PEC PhotoElectrochemical cell
PEMFC
Proton exchange membrane fuel cell
PFBC Pressurised fluidised bed combustion
PISI Port injection spark ignition
PM10 Particulate matter of less than 10 micron diameter
POX Partial oxidation
PPA Power purchase agreement
PPP Purchasing power parity
PSA Pressure swing absorption
Pt
Platinum
PV
PhotoVoltaics
R&D Research and development
RD&D Research, development and demonstration
RPS Renewables portfolio standards
SACS Saline aquifer CO2 storage
SAGD Steam assisted gravity drainage
SC Supercritical
SCSC Supercritical steam cycle

566

SECA Solid State Energy Conversion Alliance


S-I
cycle Sulfur-iodine cycle
SMR Steam methane reforming
SO2 Sulfur dioxide
SOEC Solid oxide electrolyser cell
SOFC Solid oxide fuel cell
SUV Sports utility vehicle
TFC Total final consumption
toe Tonne of oil equivalent
TPES Total primary energy supply
TWh Terawatt-hour
UNCLOS
United Nations Convention for the Law of the Sea
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNEP United National Environmental Programme
UNFCCC
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
USA United States of America
USC Ultra supercritical
USCSC
Ultra supercritical steam cycle
USD United States dollars
VHTR Very high temperature reactor
WBCSD
World Business Council for Sustainable Development
WEM World Energy Model
WEO World Energy Outlook
WEU Western Europe
WHO World Health Organisation
WTO World Trade Organisation


MJ
GJ
PJ
EJ

= 106
= 109
= 1015
= 1018

t
Mt
Gt

= = 1000
= 103
= 109

W
kW

= 103

567

MW = 106
GW = 109
TW = 1012
bar 1 = 0,9869 . (
1 )
bbl
BOE ; 1 = 159

kWh -
Nm3 3 ; 0 1,013
ppm 1ppm = 10-6 ( )
Pa

568

CHAPTER 2: SCENARIOS TO 2050: ENERGY DEMAND, SUPPLY AND CO2


EMISSIONS
Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP) (2004), Documentation
for the MARKAL Family of Models, ETSAP, www.etsap.org.
Fishbone, L.G. and H. Abilock (1981), MARKAL, a Linear-Programming Model
for Energy Systems Analysis: Technical Description of the BNL version, Energy
Research, Vol. 5, pp. 353-375.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001), Special Report on
Emissions
Scenarios, IPCC, Geneva.
International Energy Agency (IEA) (2004), Oil Crises & Climate Challenges.
30 Years of Energy Use in IEA Countries, OECD/IEA, Paris,
http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2004/30years.pdf.
IEA (2005), World Energy Outlook 2005, OECD/IEA, Paris.

CHAPTER 3: TECHNOLOGY STRATEGIES FOR A MORE SUSTAINABLE


ENERGY FUTURE
Boston Consulting Group (1968), Perspectives on Experience, Boston Consulting
Group Inc, Boston.
International Energy Agency (IEA) (2005), Act Locally, Trade Globally: Emissions
Trading for Climate Change, OECD/IEA
Oganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/International Energy
Agency (OECD/IEA) (2003), Creating Markets for Energy Technologies,
OECD/IEA, Paris.

CHAPTER 4: ELECTRICITY GENERATION


Armor, A.F. (1996), Fossil Power Plant Residual Life Optimization in the USA,
Modern Power Systems, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 41, 43-45.

569

Australian Black Coal Utilisation Research Limited (2003), Systems Assessment


of Future Electricity Generation Options for Australia, Technology Report 32,
Cooperative Research Centre for Coal in Sustainable Development, Brisbane.
Blesl, M., U. Fahl and M. Ohl (2004), Hochtemperaturbrennstoffzellen und
deren Kostenentwicklung, BWK, Vol. 56, No. 5.
Bolland, O. and H. Undrum (2003), A Novel Methodology for Comparing
CO2 Capture Options for Natural Gas-fired Combined Cycle Plants, Advances
in Environmental Research, Vol. 7, No. 4, pp. 901-911.

Annex REFERENCES
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Assessment of Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles, IAEA, Vienna.
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Energy Technology Development, PhD Thesis, Universiteit Utrecht, Faculteit
Scheikunde, Utrecht.
Klara, S. (2003), Systems Analysis Supporting the Carbon Sequestration
Technology Roadmap, paper presented at the 2nd Annual Conference on
Carbon Sequestration:
Developing and Validating the Technology Base to Reduce Carbon Intensity, 5-8
May, Alexandria, VA.
Marion, J., et al. (2003) Evaluation of Advanced Coal Combustion & Gasification
Power Plants with Greenhouse Gas Emission Control, Topical Phase-I DOE-NETL
Report, under Co-operative Agreement No. DE-FC26-01NT41146 prepared
by ALSTOM Power Inc.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (2003), The Future of Nuclear Power,
Boston, MA.
Mllersten, K., J. Yan and J.R. Moreira (2003), Potential Market Niches for
Biomass Energy with CO2 Capture and StorageOpportunities for Energy

572

Supply with Negative CO2 Emissions, Biomass and Bioenergy, Vol. 25, No. 3,
pp. 273-285.
Mllersten, K., et al. (2004), Efficient Energy Systems with CO2 Capture and
Storage from Renewable Biomass in Pulp and Paper Mills, Renewable Energy,
Vol. 29, No. 9, pp. 15831598.
Neij, L. (1999), Cost Dynamics of Wind Power, Energy, Vol. 24, p. 375.
Neij, L., et al. (2004), Experience Curves: A Tool for Energy Policy Assessment,
IMES/EESS Report No. 40, Department of Technology and Society, Environmental
and Energy Systems Studies, Lund University.
Novak-Zdravkovic, A. and J. de Ruyck (2005), Small-scale Power Generation
from Biomass, proceedings of the 14th European Biomass Conference and
Exhibition, Paris, 17-21 October.
Nsakala, N., et al. (2003), Greenhouse Gas Emissions Control by Oxygen
Firing in Circulating Fluidized Bed Boilers, paper presented at the 2nd Annual
Conference on Carbon Sequestration: Developing and Validating the Technology
Base to Reduce Carbon Intensity, 58 May, Alexandria, VA.
Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) (2004), Uranium 2003: Resources, Production
and Demand, OECD/NEA, Paris.
NEA (2003), Nuclear Energy Today, OECD, Paris.
NEA/IEA (2005), Projected Costs of Generating Electricity, 2005 Update,
OECD/IEA, Paris.
Paterson, I.R. and J.D. Wilson (2002), Use of Damage Monitoring Systems for
Component Life Optimisation in Power Plant, International Journal of Pressure
Vessels and Piping, Vol. 79, No. 8, pp. 541-547.
PHOTEX (Schaeffer, G.J., et al.) (2004), Learning From the Sun, ECN Report
ECNC-04-035, Energieonderzoek Centrum Nederland (ECN), Petten.
Pilavachi, P.A. (2000), Power Generation with Gas Turbine Systems and
Combined Heat and Power, Applied Thermal Engineering 20, pp. 14211429.
REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Network (2005), Renewables 2005: Global
Status Report, Worldwatch Institute, Washington, DC.
Rutkowski, M. and R.I. Schoff (2003), Pre-investment of IGCC for CO2
Capture with the Potential for Hydrogen Co-production, paper presented at
the Gasification Technologies Conference, 12-15 October, San Francisco, CA,
www.gasification.org.

573

SFA Pacific (2002), Summary of Bases and Results of Spreadsheet Analyses


of New Coal Based PC and CGCC Power Plants, SFA Pacific, www.sfapacific.
com/.
Spero, C. (2005), Overview of Australian-Japanese Callide: An Oxy Fuel
Demonstration Project, presentation at the Oxy-fuel Combustion Research
Network Inaugural Workshop, Cottbus, 29-30 November.
University of Chicago (2004), The Economic Future of Nuclear Power,
US Department of Energy, Washington, DC, www.ne.doe.gov/reports/
NuclIndustryStudy.pdf.
Viswanathan, R. (2003), Boiler Materials for USC Plant, Electric Power Research
Institute (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA.
Wilcox, C. (2004), Micro-CHP: The Technology Takes Off, EA Technology Ltd.,
www.chp-research.com/Downloadables/Chris%20Wilcox.pdf.
World Nuclear Association (2005a), Asias Nuclear Energy Growth,
www.worldnuclear.org .
World
Nuclear
Association
(2005b),
www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf75.htm.

Supply

of

Uranium,

CHAPTER 5: ROAD TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELS


Air Products (2002), Market Outlook for DiMethylEther (DME), US DOE,
Washington, DC.
Alberta Department of Energy (2003), Albertas Oil Sands, Alberta Department
of Energy, Alberta.
Ali, A. and K. Farouq (2003), Heavy Oil Evermore Mobile, Journal of
Petroleum Science and Engineering, No. 37, pp. 5-9.
American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), www.steel.org.
An, F. and A. Sauer (2004), Comparison of Passenger Vehicle Fuel Economy and
Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards Around the World, Pew Center on Global
Climate Change, Arlington, VA.
Association for Emissions Control by Catalyst (ACEA), http://www.aecc.be.
Australian Automobile Association (AAA), (2002), Setting the Ethanol Limit
in Petrol, AAA Response to the Environment Australia Issues Paper (see EAIP,
2001), http://www.aaa.asn.au/submis/2002/Ethanol_March02.pdf.
Badin, F. (2005), Vhicules Hybrides, Audition Publique lAssemble Nationale,

574

Office Parlementaire dvaluation des Choix Scientifiques et Technologiques,


Paris.
Barbusse, S., L. Gagnepain (2003), La Climatisation Automobile. Impact
nergtique et Environnemental, Agence Gouvernementale de lEnvironnement et
de la Matrise de lnergie, (ADEME), Paris, http://194.117.223.129/servlet/
getDoc?sort=1&cid=96&m=3&id=19358&ref=13418.
Belot, G. (2005), Les Techniques de Dpollution des Moteurs : Efficacit et Degr
de Maturit, Audition Publique lAssemble Nationale, Office Parlementaire
dvaluation des Choix Scientifiques et Technologiques, Paris.
Benouali, J., et al. (2003), Fuel Consumption of Mobile Air Conditioning.
Method of Testing and Results, paper presented at The Earth Technology Forum,
Washington, DC.
Cassman, K.G., et al. (2003), Meeting Cereal Demand While Protecting Natural
Resources and Improving Environmental Quality, Annual Review, Environment
Resources Vol. 28, pp. 315-358.
Centro Ricerche Fiat (CRF) (2002), Sistema di Controllo Elettronico delle Valvole
UNIAIR, Innovazione Competitivit No. 5, http://www.crf.it/C/I_C/2002-5.
pdf.
Cohn D. R. et al., Direct Injection Ethanol Boosted Gasoline Engines: Biofuel
Leveraging for Cost Effective Reduction of Oil Dependence and CO2 Emissions,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA, http://lfee.mit.
edu/public/LFEE_2005-001_RP.pdf.
Cupcic, F. (2003), Extra Heavy Oil and Bitumen. Impact of Technologies on the
Recovery Factor - The Challenges of Enhanced Recovery, presentation to the
Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) Annual Meeting, Rueil
Malmaison, France, 26-27 May.
Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) (2003), An Assessment of Advanced
Battery Technologies for Plug-in Hybrid Electric and Battery Electric Vehicles,
EPRI, California.
EPA (2004), Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975
through 2003, EPA, Washington, DC.
Espinoza, R.L., et al. (1999), Low Temperature Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis from a
Sasol Perspective, Applied Catalysis A: general Vol. 186, pp. 13-26.
European Commission (2005), High Level Group Adopts 10-Year-Roadmap for
a Competitive EU Car Sector, Press release, 12 December 2005, http://www.
eu.int/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/05/1564&format=HTML&
aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en.

575

European Conference of the Ministers of Transport (2006), Review of CO2


Abatement Policies for the Transport Sector, CEMT/CS(2006)7/REV1, Paris.
European Federation for Transport and Environment (2005), Car Industry
Backs Away from Climate Commitments, News release, 23 June 2005, http://
www.t-e.nu/docs/Press/2005/2005-06_23_car_industry_climate.pdf.
Farrel, A. E., et al. (2006), Ethanol Can Contribute to Energy and Environmental
Goals, Science, Vol. 311, 27 January.
Fleisch, T. (2004), DME Opportunities and Challenges, paper presented at the
First International DME Conference, Paris, 12-14 October.
FO Lichts (2005), Too Much too Soon? World Ethanol Production to Break
Another Record, World Ethanol & Biofuels, Vol. 3, No. 20, 21 June.
Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations, On-line
database, http://faostat.fao.org/.
Gielen, D. J. and F. Unander (2005d), Alternative Fuels: An Energy Technology
Perspective, IEA/OECD, Paris.
Gielen, D. J., et al. (2002), Biomass Strategies for Climate Policies?, Climate
Policies Vol. 2, pp. 319-333.
Gielen, D. J., et al. (2003), Modeling of Global Biomass Policies, Biomass and
Bioenergy Vol. 25, pp. 177-195.
Goldemberg, J. and S. Teixeira Coelho (2004), Renewable Energy Traditional
Biomass vs. Modern Biomass, Energy Policy No. 32, pp. 711-714.
Greene, D. L. and A. Schfer (2003), Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from
U.S. Transportation, Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Arlington, VA.
Hadley, S. W., S. Das and J. W. Miller (2000), Aluminium R&D for Automotive
Uses and the Department of Energys Role, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
(ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN.
Hamelinck, C. et al. (2003), Prospects for Ethanol from Lignocellulosic Biomass:
Techno-Economic Performance as Development Progresses, , Report NWSE-2003-55, Utrecht University, Utrecht, http://www.cem.uu.nl/nws/www/
publica/e2003-55.pdf
Hamelinck, C. N., et al. (2004), Production of FT Transportation Fuels from
Biomass; Technical Options, Process Analysis and Optimisation, and Development
Potential, Energy (Oxford),. Vol. 29, No. 11, pp. 1743-1771.

576

Hamelinck, C., G. van Hooijdonk and A. P. C. Faaij (2005), Ethanol from


Lignocellulosic Biomass: Techno-Economic Performance in Short-, Middle-and
Long Term, Biomass and Bioenergy, Volume 28, Issue 4 ,pp. 384-410.
Honda (2003), Honda Develops Worlds First Electronically Controlled Fuel
Injection for a 4-Stroke 50cc Scooter, Honda World News, 3 October.
IEA (2001), Saving Oil and Reducing Transport Emissions in Transport. Options
and Strategies, OECD/IEA, Paris, http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/
free/2000/savingoil2001.pdf.
IEA (2002), Bus Systems for the Future. Achieving Sustainable Transport
Worldwide, OECD/IEA, Paris, http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/
free/2000/bussystems2002.pdf.
IEA (2004a), Oil Crises & Climate Challenges. 30 Years of Energy Use in
IEA Countries, OECD/IEA, Paris, http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/
free/2004/30years.pdf.
IEA (2004b), World Energy Outlook, OECD/IEA, Paris.
IEA (2004c), Biofuels for Transport. An International Perspective, OECD/IEA,
Paris.
IEA (2004d), Prospects for CO2 Capture and Storage, OECD/IEA, Paris.
IEA (2005a), Prospects for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells, OECD/IEA, Paris.
IEA (2005b), Energy Balances of non-OECD Countries, OECD/IEA, Paris.
IEA (2005c), Renewables 2005 Global Status Report, OECD/IEA, Paris.
IEA Hybrid Electric Vehicle Implementing Agreement (2000), Annex VII: Hybrid
Vehicles Overview Report, IEA Hybrid Electric Vehicle Implementing Agreement,
http://www.ieahev.org/AnnexVII-2000.html.
International Iron and Steel Institute, (IISI), http://www.worldsteel.org, www.
worldautosteel.org
Institut National de Recherche sur Les Transports et Leur Scurit (INRETS) (2005),
Arcueil, http://www.inrets.fr/
Jeuland, N., X. Montaigne, and P. Duret (2004), New HCCI/CAI Combustion
Process Development: Methodology for Determination of Relevant Fuel
Parameters, Oil & Gas Science and Technology, Vol. 59, No. 6, pp 571-579,
www.ifp.fr.

577

Jeuland, N., X. Montaigne and X. Gautrot (2004), Potentiality of Ethanol as a


Fuel for Dedicated Engine, Oil & Gas Science and Technology, Vol. 59, No. 6,
pp 559-570, www.ifp.fr.
Johnson Matthey Environmental Catalysts and Technologies (JM), http://ect.
jmcatalysts.com/index.htm.
Johnson, T. (2003), Diesel Exhaust Emissions Control, presentation to the
2003 Environmental Monitoring, Evaluation and Protection (EMEP) Conference,
http://www.nyserda.org/programs/Environment/EMEP/conference_2003/
Johnson.pdf.
Johnson, T. (2005), Diesel Emissions Control Review, presentation to the 2005
Diesel Engine Emissions Reduction (DEER) Conference, http://www.eere.energy.
gov/vehiclesandfuels/pdfs/deer_2005/session4/2005_deer_johnson.pdf.
Kelkar, A., R. Roth and J. Clark (2001), Automobile Bodies: Can Aluminum be
an Economical Alternative to Steel?, JOM Vol. 53 No. 8, pp. 28-32.
Kim, S. and B. E. Dale (2004), Global Potential Bioethanol Production from
Wasted Crops and Crops Residues, Biomass and Bioenergy Vol. 26, pp. 361375.
Kliesch, J. and T. Langer (2003), Deliberating Diesel: Environmental, Technical,
and Social Factors Affecting Diesel Passenger Vehicle Prospects in the United
States, American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE), Washington,
DC, http://www.aceee.org/pubs/t032full.pdf.
Leduc, P., et al. (2003), Downsizing of Gasoline Engine: An Efficient Way to
Reduce CO2 Emissions, Oil & Gas Science and Technology Rev. IFP, Vol. 58,
No. 1 pp 115-127, www.ifp.fr.
Mackintosh, J. (2005), Big Oil Facing Biofuel Burden and Biofuels could give
Breathing Space to Carmakers, Financial Times, 6th December.
National Research Council (NRC) (2002), Effectiveness and Impact of Corporate
Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards, Committee on the Effectiveness
and Impact of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards, National
Academy Press.
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) (2001) Biodiesel: Handling and
Use Guidelines, NREL/TP-580-30004, Washington, DC, http://www1.eere.
energy.gov/biomass/pdfs/36182.pdf.
Nederlandse Organisatie voor toegepast-natuurwetenschappelijk onderzoek
(TNO) (2003), Overview of Developments in the Field of Electric, Hybrid and
Fuel Cell Vehicles and Technologies, TNO Automotive, http://www.automotive.
tno.nl/VM/EST/Publicaties/Quickscan%202003%20rw.pdf.

578

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) (2004), Transportation Energy Data


Book, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, http://cta.ornl.gov/
data.
ODYSSEE, www.odyssee-indicators.org/Databases/data_indicators.html.
Penant, C. (2005), The Challenge of Energy Efficient Tyres, presentation to the
IEA Workshop on Energy Efficient Tyres: Improving the On-Road Performance
of Motor Vehicles, IEA, Paris, http://www.iea.org/dbtw-wpd/Textbase/
work/2005/EnerEffTyre/Penant.pdf.
Plotkin, S. (2006), Grid-Connected Hybrids: Another Option in the Search
to Replace Gasoline, paper presented to the 85th Annual Meeting of the
Transportation Research Board, Washington DC, 22-26 January.
Reinaud, J. (2005), The European Refinery Industry under the EU Emission Trading
Scheme. Competitiveness, Trade Flows and Investment Implications, OECD/IEA,
Paris, http://www.iea.org/Textbase/Papers/2005/IEA_Refinery_Study.pdf.
Sauer, A., et al. (2005), Transparency Issues with the ACEA Agreement: are
Investors Driving Blindly?, Sustainable Asset Management (SAM) and World
Resources Institute (WRI).
Schipper, L., C. Marie-Lilliu and L. Fulton (2002), Diesels in Europe: Analysis of
Characteristics, Usage Patterns, Energy Savings and CO2 Emission Implications,
Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, No. 36, Part 2.
Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) (2002), Ford Hydrogen Engine,
Automotive Engineering Technology Briefs, SAE, Warrendale, PA, http://www.
sae.org/automag/techbriefs/04-2002/page3.htm.
Sreenath, H.K., et al. (2001), Ethanol Production from Alfalfa Fiber Fractions by
Saccharification and Fermentation, Process Biochemistry, Vol. 36, pp. 11991204, http://www.fpl.fs.fed.us/documnts/pdf2001/sreen01a.pdf.
Steynberg, A.P. and H. G. Nel (2004), Clean Coal Conversion Options using
Fischer-Tropsch Technology, Fuel Vol. 83, pp. 765-770.
Stock, K., (2005) T. P. M. S. System Quick Technical Review presentation to the
IEA Workshop on Energy Efficient Tyres: Improving the On-Road Performance
of Motor Vehicles, IEA , Paris, http://www.iea.org/Textbase/work/2005/
EnerEffTyre/stock.pdf.
Tilagone, R. and S. Venturi (2004), Development of Natural Gas Demonstrator
Based on an Urban Vehicle, Oil & Gas Science and Technology, Vol. 59, No.
6, pp. 581-591, www.ifp.fr.

579

United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Air Emissions Trends, EPA,
Washington, DC, http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/2005/econ-emissions.html,.
Walter, B. and B. Gatellier (2003), Near Zero NOX Emissions and High Fuel
Efficiency Diesel Engine: the NADITM Concept using Dual Mode Combustion,
Oil & Gas Science and Technology, Rev. IFP, Vol. 58, No. 1, pp 101-114, www.
ifp.fr.
World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) (2004), Mobility
2030:
Meeting the Challenges to Sustainability, WBCSD, http://www.wbcsd.org/
web/publications/mobility/mobility-full.pdf.

CHAPTER 6: BUILDINGS AND APPLIANCES


Bailie, et al., (1998), Cost Curve Estimations for Reducing CO2 Emissions in
Canada: An Analysis by Province and Sector, Simon Fraser University, Energy
Research Group, Vancouver, described in UNDP, UN Department of Economic
and Social Affairs and World Energy Council, World Energy Assessment, New
York, 2002, p.187.
Cogen Europe (1999), An Introduction to Micro-Cogeneration, Briefing Paper
No. 8.
Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) (2005), Microgeneration Strategy and
Low Carbon Buildings Programme: Consultation, UK DTI, London.
ECOFYS (2004), Mitigation of CO2 Emissions from the Building Stock, report for
EURIMA and EuroACE, Utrecht.
Efficient Windows Collaborative, Washington, DC, www.efficientwindows.org/.
European Mineral Wool Manufacturers Association (EURIMA), Insulation in a
Nutshell, EURIMA, Brussels, www.eurima.org.
Fisette, P. (2005), Understanding Energy Efficient Windows, Fine Homebuilding
Magazine, www.taunton.com/finehomebuilding/pages/h00029.asp.
Guertler, P. and W. Smith (2006), Energy Efficiency in the Refurbishment of HighRise Residential Buildings, IEA and EuroACE, London.
Horowitz, N. (ed.) (2005), Televisions, Active Mode Energy Use, New Horizons
for Energy Efficiency, Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, NY.
International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA), www.ibpsa.
org/IEA (2001), Things That Go Blip in the Night: Standby Power and How to
Limit It, OECD/IEA, Paris.

580

IEA (2003), Cool Appliances, Policy Strategies for Energy Efficient Homes,
OECD/IEA, Paris.
IEA, (2004a), Oil Crises & Climate Challenges: 30 Years of Energy Use in IEA
Countries, OECD/IEA, Paris.
IEA (2004b), Coming in from the Cold: Improving District Heating Policy in
Transition Economies, OECD/IEA, Paris.
IEA (2006), Lights Labours Lost: Policies for Energy-Efficient Lighting, OECD/
IEA, Paris, forthcoming.
Jones, P. (2005), Fuel Cell CHP for Buildings, Energy in Buildings & Industry.
LaFrance M. (2004), Presentation to US DOE, BETEC Membranes Symposium,
Arlington, VA, 11 June.
Lesage, D. (2005), In Control of the Future, Energy in Buildings & Industry,
March.
Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) (2000), Survey, Commercial and
Institutional Building Energy Use, NRCan, Ottawa, December 2002 and
website: http://oee1.nrcan.gc.ca/corporate/statistics/neud/dpa/data_e/
databases.cfm.
Navigant Consulting, Inc (2002), US Lighting Characterization, Volume I:
National Lighting Inventory and Energy Consumption Estimate, US DOE,
Washington D.C.
New Buildings Institute (2003), Advanced Lighting Guidelines: 2003 Edition,
New Buildings Institute Inc., White Salmon, WA, www.newbuildings.org.
Philibert, C. (2005), The Present and Future Use of Solar Thermal Energy as
a Primary Source of Energy, InterAcademy Council,www.iea.org/textbase/
papers/2005/solarthermal.pdf.
Population Information Network (POPIN) (1999), World Urbanization Prospects,
the 1999 Revision, Key Findings; United Nations Population Division, Department
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Smith K. et al., (2000), Greenhouse Gases from Small-scale Combustion Devices
in Developing Countries: Phase IIA, Household Stoves in India, http://ehs.sph.
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Solar Cookers International (2005), Annual Report, Solar Cookers International,
Sacramento, CA, http://solarcooking.org/SCI-Annual-Report-2005.htm.

581

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) (2000), Annual


Bulletin of Housing and Building Statistics for Europe and North America,
Dwellings by Period of Construction, UNECE, Geneva, www.unece.org.
US DOE, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), http://www.eere.
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Volume VIII, No. 3, September.
Vorsatz, D. et al. (1997), Lighting Market Sourcebook For The U.S., Report
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of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC03-76SF00098, December, 1997.
WBGU (2004), World in Transition: Towards Sustainable Energy Systems,
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WEC (2000), World Energy Assessment, Energy and the Challenge of
Sustainability, United Nations Development Programme, United Nations
Department of Economic and Social Affairs and the World Energy Council, New
York, NY.
World Energy Council (WEC) (1999), The Challenge of Rural Energy Poverty in
Developing Countries, WEC, London, http://www.worldenergy.org/wec-geis/
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World Health Organization (WHO) (2006), Fuel for Life: Household Energy and
Health, United Nations, Geneva.
Wynne-Jones, S. (2003), Ethanol Gelfuel as Efficient Alternative Energy Source,
LAMNET-NEWS, 3rd issue, June 2003.

CHAPTER 7: INDUSTRY
Beer, J. de (1998), Potential for Industrial Energy Efficiency Improvement in the
Long Term, PhD Thesis, Utrecht University, Utrecht.
Bommaraju, T.V. and P.J. Orosz (2001), Brine Electrolysis, Electrochemistry
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Brunner, C.U. and A.A. Niederberger (2006), Motor System Model (MSM). A
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Proceedings, pp. 1567-1580.

582

Department of Industry, Science and Resources Australia (ISR) (2000), Energy


Efficiency Best Practices in the Australian Aluminium Industry, ISR, Canberra.
Ekbom, T., et al. (2003), Technical and Commercial Feasibility Study of Black
Liquor Gasification with Methanol/DME Production as Motor Fuel for Automotive
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European Fertilizer Manufacturers Association (EFMA) (2003), The West
European Fertilizer Industrys Position on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Emission
Allowances, EFMA, Brussels, Belgium. http://www.efma.org/.
Fruehan, R.J., et al. (2000), Theoretical Minimum Energies to Produce Steel for
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Gielen, D.J. (1997), Technology Characterisation for Ceramic and Inorganic
Material; Input data for Western European MARKAL, Energy Research Centre
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Hallin, M. (2006), Future Steelmaking in Europethe ULCOS project,
Proceedings of the Ishii Symposium on Sustainable Steelmaking, 2-3 March,
Sydney, Cooperative Research Centre for Coal in Sustainable Development
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Hornby Anderson, S., et al. (2001), Direct Reduction/EAF Steelmaking The
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International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) (2004), World Steel Statistics, IISI,
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International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) (2005), World Steel in Figures, IISI,
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Jochem, E., et al. (2004), Werkstoffeffizienz. Einsparpotentiale bei Herstellung
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Keulenaer, H. de., et al. (2004), Energy Efficient Motor Driven Systems, European
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Kim, Y. and E. Worrell (2002), International Comparison of CO2 Emission Trends
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Lemar, P.L. (2001), The Potential Impact of Policies to Promote Combined Heat
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1243-1254.

583

Lokurlu, A., et al. (2003), Fuel Cells for Mobile and Stationary Applications
Cost Analysis for Combined Heat and Power Stations on the Basis of Fuel Cells,
International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol. 28, pp. 703-711.
Martin, N., et al. (2000), Emerging Energy-Efficient Industrial Technologies,
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory/American Council for an EnergyEfficient Economy, Report No. LBNL-46990, Berkeley, CA/Washington, DC.
McKane, A, et al. (2005), Creating a Standards Framework for Sustainable
Industrial Energy Efficiency, Proceedings of EEMODS 05, Heidelberg, 5-8
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MIDREX (2004), 2004 World Direct Reduction Statistics, MIDREX, Charlotte,
NC, www.midrex.com
Naber, J.E., et al. (2004), The HTU Process is Ready for Commercial Demonstration,
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Naito, M., M. Nakano and K. Kunitomo (2006), Reduction Behaviour of Carbon
Composite Agglomerates in Blast Furnaces, Proceedings of the Ishii Symposium
on Sustainable Steelmaking, 2-3 March, Sydney, Cooperative Research Centre
for Coal in Sustainable Development (CCSD), Brisbane.
Neelis, M. L., et al. (2005), Modelling CO2 Emissions from Non-Energy Use
with the Non-Energy Use Emission Accounting Tables (NEAT) Model, Resources,
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