Words On Intelligence: Ofessiona

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Words on Intelligence
Volume 2, Number 1 2005 ISSN 1039-1525
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ISSN 1039-1525
Australian Institute of Professional Intelligence Officers Incorporated, 1991

This work is copyright. Apart from any use permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, articles may be reproduced provided that suitable acknowledgement is given to this Institute.
Editor's Comment
In this second edition of Words on Intelligence, we present a further series of quotes, ranging from one word to paragraphs, from pundits, practitioners, policymakers and reformers on various aspects of our multi-faceted profession. A significant proportion of the quotes included can be found on that treasure chest, the WorldWide Web. A number of selections are relevant to more than one aspect of intelligence, and their placement inevitably is somewhat arbitrary. Inclusion does not indicate endorsement of or identification with the particular view being expressed. Nuggets of commentary and judgement can lurk in obscure places, and if you come across a quote that you believe to be worthy of inclusion in the following edition, we would welcome receiving it. A form for completion and contact details are provided at the end of this edition. November 2005
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Contents
The Role of Intelligence . . . . Intelligence and Policymakers . . . The Nature of Intelligence . . . . The Process of Intelligence . . . . Focuses of intelligence . . . . . Law Enforcement . . . . . Commercial Intelligence . . . . Military Intelligence . . . . . National Security . . . . . Sources of Intelligence . . . . ELINT . . . . . . . HUMINT . . . . . . . MASINT . . . . . . . IMINT . . . . . . . OSINT . . . . . . . SIGINT . . . . . . . Skills and Qualities in Intelligence . . . The Culture of Intelligence . . . . Images of Intelligence . . . . Ethics in Intelligence . . . . Accountability and Intelligence . . . Counter-Intelligence . . . . Intelligence Failures . . . . Intelligence Reform . . . . . Australia . . . . . . . Europe . . . . . . . Southeast Asia . . . . . . United States . . . . . . Department of Homeland Security . . Director of National Intelligence . . Counter-Terrorism . . . . . Iraq . . . . . . . The Region . . . . . . Threats Against Australia . . . . "Words on Intelligence" Suggested Additions Form Regalia order form . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 4 13 14 18 18 20 22 24 24 24 24 29 30 30 30 31 35 36 38 40 43 47 50 51 51 52 52 54 54 55 58 58 59 61 63
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The Australian Institute of Professional Intelligence Officers Inc. (AIPIO)

The aim of AIPIO is to promote intelligence as a recognised profession in Australia. The Institute's aim shall be achieved by: (i) fostering of a sense of professionalism and esprit de corps within the field of intelligence through the setting of membership standards. recognising individual excellence in the field of intelligence through the establishment of accreditation levels for members commensurate with qualifications and experience.
(ii)
(iii) recognising organisational excellence in the field of intelligence through the provision of affiliation status. (iv) facilitating the interchange of information and views on the theory and practice of intelligence and related subjects through the provision of a neutral forum. encouraging research into the theory and practice of intelligence and the development and application of new ideas. fostering of the concept of self-improvement through the provision of professional standards.
(v)
(vi)
AIPIO Board of Management and Editorial Panel

President Vice President (Administration) Vice President (Programs) General Secretary Treasurer Registrar Web Coordinator Public Affairs Officer Seminar Coordinator Board Member AIPIO Editors Journal Newsletter Dr Ian Wing Chris Clark Terry-Anne O'Neill John King Gavin Bell Graeme Slattery Fiona Peacock Brett Peppler David Maybin Jeff Corkill
Terry-Anne O'Neill Gavin Bell
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The Role of Intelligence

In intelligence, it is the eyes and ears on the ground that provide the confirmation of decisions taken or plans being made, and without that intelligence, policy makers are working, if not in the dark, then certainly partially blind. James Adams, Aldrich Ames and the Corruption of the CIA. Perhaps in some ways [intelligence] is like medicine; doctors in general practice are said to spend most of their time on things that affect patients quality of life, but occasionally their role is life-saving. Intelligence has something of the same variation. Michael Herman, Intelligence Power in Peace and War, 1996 Intelligence deals with all the things which should be known in advance of initiating a course of action. Hoover Commission Report, 1955, p.26 If we are to think seriously about the world, and act effectively in it, some sort of simplified map of realityis necessary. Samuel P. Huntington Ye shall know the truth and the truth shall set you free. John, Chapter 8, Verse 2. [discipline involved in the evaluation of intelligence] means working out first of all what it is, how does this information come, who has acquired it, who is talking here, in what circumstances are they talking, to whom are they talking, what are they talking about, do the people talking actually know what they are talking about, even if they do know what they are talking about are their views actually important, and so on. So every analyst, as they look at every piece of intelligence goes through this process of evaluation to reach a conclusion on how much weight to place on the piece of intelligence. It is a really important discipline of intelligence analysis and it is absolutely fundamental. Transcript of verbal testimony of Dr Kim Jones, DG ONA to PJC Inquiry into Intelligence on Iraqs WMD 2003 We see ourselves as servicing ministers needs for assessed intelligence. Dr Kim Jones, Director-General, Office of National Assessments, in Allard, Tom, Intelligence stand hardened overnight, Sydney Morning Herald, 2 March 2004, p 7
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We do not collect intelligence for its own sake; there is no point. We need to develop and act on it for the safety of all our citizens. Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, Director General of the British Security Service in The International Terrorist Threat and the Dilemmas in Countering It, speech at the Ridderzaal, Binnenhof, The Hague, Netherlands, 1 September, 2005 What amazed me most of all was how one mans effort could achieve what whole armies could not. One spy could decide the fate of thousands of people. Vladimer Putin, President of Russia, and ex-KGB colonel, on his childhood dreams of joining the KGB, The Atlantic Monthly, March 2005, p.88 preemption is an intelligence-driven concept, implying that we can identify threats well before they can be realized and that our information can be specific and detailed enough that we can act on it without unnecessary collateral damage, physical or political. David J Rothkopf (former deputy undersecretary of commerce, chairman and CEO of Intellibridge Corporation, adjunct professor, Columbia University), Bridging the Intelligence Gap, Blueprint Magazine, 29 July 2002
Intelligence and Policymakers

Those who cannot handle secret intelligence are better off without it. Dr Christopher Andrew Fixed on protecting their posteriors, US officials are determined to warn every American about every threat they can lay their hands on. Anonymous, Imperial Hubris why the West is losing the War on Terror, Brasseys Inc., Washington DC, 2004 p.84 When I was walking down the stair I met a man who wasnt there. He wasnt there again today. I wish that man would go away. Anonymous Last Wednesday upon the stair, I met a man who wasnt there. He wasnt there again on Thursday, I dont know why he went away.
He looked so furtive, half-alive, I asked Are you from MI5? Five or Six are one said he, We all work for the KGB. I saw the Red Star on his Trilby! I said, You must be Mr. Philby! His answer haughty tho emphemeral; To you Im Comrade Major-General! Reprimanded by a Red! So back into my flat I fled. Just yesterday upon the stair, I met a man who wasnt there. He wasnt there again today, This bastards from the CIA! Anonymous This process [selectivity in what to tell policymakers] also yields the deselection of data that would spur policy-maker requests for action that if taken, might yield an IC failure and so criticisms from Congress, policymakers, or the media or expose the ICs unaddressed systematic failures. Anonymous, Imperial Hubris, p.238 There was a predisposition in this administration to assume the worst about SaddamThey were inclined to see and interpret evidence a particular way to support a very deeply held convictionI just think they felt there needed to be some sort of rallying point for the American people. I think they said it sincerely, but I also think that at the end of the day, well find out their interpretations of the intelligence were wrong. Anonymous recently retired senior military officer described as deeply involved in the war planning for the invasion of Iraq in 2003, AFP online, 1 June 2003 There was absolute scepticism among British intelligence over the case for the invasion of Iraq. That is still the case. Campbells [political adviser] claims that the dossier wasnt sexed up are absolute rubbish. Anonymous senior British intelligence officer, Scotland on Sunday, IC Wales & Sunday Herald online, 29 June 2003
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The large numbers of intelligence agency staff with policy-making backgrounds or ambitions has too often resulted, however unconsciously, in intelligence assessments being biased towards desired policy outcomes rather than being objective in their own rightPut simply, it appears that ONA [Office of National Assessments] has too many analysts who are salesmen good with words rather than enough all-rounders thoroughly ground in the mechanics, and pitfalls, of the intelligence profession. Australian Defence Association, AAP Online, 18 August 2003 Intelligence is a political art, not a precise science, and inevitably there were debates and disputes between, and probably within, the Australian agencies [regarding the presence or not of WMD in Iraq], especially over the mass of allied intelligence briefings Canberra relied on. Editorial, Intelligence test for spies, The Australian, 2 March 2004 Its hard to make predictions, especially about the future. Yogi Berra Well, we replied on the normal intelligence sources which are available. Im not going to start, for most obviously of reasons Im not going to start saying what is quote independent or not independent, we relied on the normal intelligence sources, the intelligence agencies remain confident in the judgements they made, they werent in any way pressured, I dont believe they misled the government and I think people should just be a little bit patient. Prime Minister Tony Blair, Press Conference, AAP Online, 11 June 2003 You do not want a uniform, sanitised, consensus, lowest common denominator ultimate view: what you want, if contestability is a value, is to have the different perspectives displayed right up to the top level. Senator Brandis, Hansard, 27 November 2003, p.329 [Advisers] need occasions at which they can openly consider different ideas without being accused of undermining their masters. And if there are no such occasions, some say, the quality of the information and advice coming to government suffers and the quality of government deteriorates because no-one associated with government can afford to be in a situation where a piece of paper or a phrase uttered might be used to embarrass politicians. A chill descends on a once cosy club, Canberra Times, 2 March 2004, p 6
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I was wondering what the mousetrap was for, said Alice to the Knight. It isnt very likely there would be any mice on the horses back. Not very likely, perhaps, said the Knight; but, if they do come, I dont choose to have them running all aboutYou see, its as well to be provided for everything. Thats the reason the horse has anklets round his feet. But what are they for? Alice asked in a tone of great curiosity. To guard against the bites of sharks, the Knight replied. Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass, Wordsworth Classics, 2004. p.218 The intelligence I receive informs just about every foreign policy decision we make. Its easy to take it for granted. But we couldnt do without it. Unique intelligence makes it less likely that our forces will be sent to battle, less likely that American lives will have to be put at risk. It gives us a chance to prevent crises rather than forcing us to manage them. President Bill Clinton, 1995 intelligence officials must function very much like entrepreneurs; finding markets for their services while at the same time seeking to find out what the market wants. Dr Philip H.J. Davies, Designing intelligence, Asian Defence and Diplomacy, July 2000, p.48 Policymakers believe criticism of what they see as inadequate analysis is part of their job description... analysts find it difficult to distinguish between bona fide tradecraft criticism and complaints generated by the politics of policymaking. Jack Davis, Sherman Kent Center Occasional Papers, Vol.2, Number 2. Where is the life we have lost in living? Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge? Where is the knowledge we have lost in information? T.S. Eliot, The Rock, Part 1, 1934 Most academic students of intelligence would probably accept a view like the following. In isolation any single piece of information is useless and meaningless. Its effect depends upon its interpretation in the context of a set of conditions that govern expectation and usability. Statesmen, of course, can understand that world and they do affect it. They are not mere prisoners of perception, unable to learn from error or to change their minds. The study of intelligence is a study of practical epistemology. It illuminates not merely why statesmen act but how they think. John Ferris, Coming in from the Cold War The Historiography of American Intelligence, 1945-1990.
Intelligence is the servant of strategy. It is not a form of power, but one of several factors which guide the use of powerIntelligence cannot tell you what to do that is the province of policy. Intelligence is only the servant. It cannot be a good servant to a bad master. John Ferris, Intelligence After the Cold War: A Global Perspective, 1994 The intelligence analyst is only as good as his customer: This is where the ultimate responsibility rests. Unfortunately, as lawyers know only too well, it is easier to blame the analyst than himself. And that, as we say, is life. G. and M. Friedman, C. Chapman and J.S.Baker Jr., The Intelligence EdgeHow to Profit in the Information Age, 1997 The CIA credo is that the US must always have the place of primacy among our interests. Porter Goss, Director, CIA, in David Morgan, CIA to do its own spywork overseas, Reuters, 22 September 2005 As Scoop Jackson used to say, In matters of national security, the best politics is no politics. Congresswoman Jane Harman, Ranking Member, House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, American Enterprise Institute press release, 5 March 2004 We count on the intelligence community to be truth-tellers, no matter how inconvenient that truth may be for policymakers. If the distinction between those who provide intelligence and those who promote policies becomes blurred, we are all in trouble. Congresswoman Jane Harman, Ibid. It became a personality issue. My fact is better than your fact. Pentagon consultant, in Seymour M Hersch, The Stovepipe, The New Yorker, 27 October 2003 The best intelligence is essential to the best policy. Lyndon B. Johnson, 1966
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Intelligence not only has to train new recruits but also to educate its customers. This is a formidable taskThey have to be convinced of what intelligence can, and what it cannot achieve: they must learn that an overload of requests will result in diminishing returns; that intelligence should be taken into the confidence of policy-makers if these wish to obtain relevant information. Professor Walter Laquer, Spying and Democracy: The Future of Intelligence. Intelligence must be the servant and not the master of operational policy. Donald McLachlan, Room 39: A Study in Naval Intelligence. Politicians are always dealing with things they do not understand. Sir Robert Menzies, 1960 For intelligence officers the trick is to bring policy makers the bad news they need to know without seeming to attack the entire policy. Herbert Meyer, Real World Intelligence. We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow. Lord Palmerston, 1841 [The White House] dismantle[d] the existing filtering process that for fifty years had been preventing the policymakers from getting bad information. Kenneth Pollack, a former National Security Council expert on Iraq, in Seymour M Hersch, The Stovepipe, The New Yorker, 27 October 2003 Bolton [John Bolton, the Under-Secretary of State for Arms Control] seemed to be troubled because INR was not telling him what he wanted to hearand I was excluded from his meetings according to an aide The Under-Secretary wants to keep this in the family. Greg Theilmann, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, State Department, in Seymour M Hersch, The Stovepipe, The New Yorker, 27 October 2003 I found that there was lots of stuff that I wasnt getting and that the INR analysts werent including. I didnt want it filtered. I wanted to see everything to be fully informed. If that puts someones nose out of joint, sorry about that. John Bolton on his insistence on receiving raw intelligence, in Seymour M Hersch, Ibid.
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Policymakers have every right to seek information from a variety of sources. But there is an inherent danger in setting up a stovepipe that forwards raw intelligence to policymakers without sufficient peer review. When policymakers reach for information to support their policies and stifle contrary information - and they get it wrong we should all learn lessons. Congresswoman Jane Harman, Ranking Member, House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, American Enterprise Institute press release, 5 March 2004 Im quite comfortable that we made the right decision on the basis of the information that was available to us. In relation to intelligence, when you are dealing with a regime of deception such as Saddam Husseins, its not just black and white; you cant get absolutes. Youve got to make a decision on the basis of the best information available and this was not a hasty decision.I actually think that its important for public confidence that the full story is told, even if it leads to a debate as to whether the intelligence was good enough or not. In terms of public confidence it needs to be open and frank. Robert Hill, Australian Defence Minister, The Guardian, 2 June, 2003 The committee believes that, with the focus on current crises, the agencies longterm capacity to provide warnings is being eroded. Intelligence and Security Committee, Annual Report to Parliament, Her Majestys Government Printer, UK, June 2003 You cannot just cherry-pick evidence that suits your case and ignore the rest. It is a cardinal rule of intelligence. Paul Lashmar and Raymond Whitaker, Intelligence, N. 417, 24 February 2003, p.1 It is the responsibility of governments to address the causes, set the legal frameworks for countering terrorism so that Services can collect intelligence by all means including through the retention of data, and ensure the development and implementation both of pan-government policies and international initiatives to protect ourselves to the best possible level. Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, Director General of the British Security Service in The International Terrorist Threat and the Dilemmas in Countering It, speech at the Ridderzaal, Binnenhof, The Hague, Netherlands, 1 September, 2005
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you act off intelligence. Intelligence doesnt necessarily mean something is true. Its just its intelligence. You know, its your best estimate of the situation. It doesnt mean its a fact. I mean, thats not what intelligence is...and so, you make judgements. General Myers, US Department of Defense Briefing, June 24, 2003 (cited in testimony at the Inquiry into 9/11, October 2003). These are not assertions were giving you, they are facts and conclusions based on solid intelligence. US Secretary of State Colin Powell to the UN Security Council, February 2003 We need to find out what went wrong in the intelligence-gathering. US President Bush, after announcing a Presidential Commission to investigate the US intelligence agencies poor performance on Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) after no WMD were found in Iraq, December 2004. Any suggestion that we would play with threat levels for political purposes is wrong. Dennis Richardson, Director-General, ASIO, AAP online, 30 April, 2003 So what you may end up with are much too clear-cut conclusions that lose the nuances. Major Frank Soholm Grevil, former Danish Intelligence officer on summarising and simplifying of intelligence reports on WMD by Danish Defence Ministry officials prior to the invasion of Iraq, TIME, April 26, 2004 p.16 Its a slam dunk, Sir. Then CIA Director George Tenet reassuring President Bush in 2002 that Iraq did have WMD. Those were the two dumbest words I ever said. George Tenet on his assurance to President Bush that it was a slam dunk that Iraq has WMD. The expression smart push is one which implies that the Intelligence Community knows what the user needs and will provide it, is a dumb term. Jerry O. Tuttle, Decision Superiority and Intelligence, Defence Intelligence Journal, Vol 9, no 1, 2000 When you hear calculated risk, dont ask to see the calculations. Dr Gus Weiss, former US Assistant Secretary of Defense for space policy.
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there is a fine line between presenting the facts in the best light to suit your case, and misrepresenting those facts. Hugh White, Iraq intelligence: no sexing up but some exaggeration, Sydney Morning herald, 2 March 2004, p.11 The problem was recognising who the enemy was and having actionable intelligence to find them. But if you have more troops, that creates a new set of problems. You have a heavier American footprint, which means alienating more people. And without better intelligence you cant do anything with more troops. Paul Wolfowitz, in The Transatlantic Monthly, Jul/Aug 2005, p.116 Policymakers are like surgeons. They dont last long if they ignore what they see when they cut an issue open. Paul Wolfowitz We are all spying on each other. You need belts and braces, collateral on collateral. It would be as vital today to know where your European partners are coming from as it used to be know the order of battle of Soviet forces. Anon, source in Mark Urban, UK Eyes Alpha: The Inside Story of British Intelligence, 1996 Joint operations, by definition, double the risks of exposure, misunderstandings and raise the possibility of compromise. Joseph Bulik, retired CIA official Australias intelligence interests do not, and cannot, coincide with those of any other country. Therefore, although we can and should benefit from exchange of information and views with friends and allies, we need our own intelligence collection and assessment capabilities. We also need constantly to reassess the benefits to Australia from intelligence relationships with other countries against the costs. Justice Hope, Royal Commission on Intelligence and Security, 1977 There are no such things as friendly liaison services, only the liaison services of friendly countries. Anonymous
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The Nature of Intelligence

When everything is intelligence nothing is intelligencebroadening the concept [of intelligence] is one thing to flatten it out is something quite different. Professor Wilhelm Agrell, University of Lund, Sweden, at Kent Center Conference, May 2002 Information is not intelligence and only a fragment of all kinds of analysis is intelligence analysis Intelligence analysis is not about information processing. Intelligence analysis combines the dynamics of journalism with the problem-solving of science. Professor Wilhelm Agrell, Ibid. People dont trust their own systems. Intelligence is like exams. You always think that the chap next to you knows more than you do. John le Carre, The Tailor of Panama. Intelligence is information on which action can be taken. Sir Mansfield Cumming, c. 1922, in Alan Judd, The Quest for C : Sir Mansfield Cumming and the Founding of the British Secret Service, 1999 Intelligence is covertly obtained information. While it may take a number of forms, the key characteristic of intelligence information is that it is obtained without the authority of the government or group who owns the information.Intelligence analysis or assessment is the process of using intelligence, and other information, to form a picture of an issue or occurrence. Phillip Flood, Report of the Inquiry into Australian Intelligence Agencies, July 2004 pp. 5-6 Intelligence is information, rarely complete, that has to be analysed and assessed. Analysts will come to different conclusions based on the same information. Some will ignore intelligence others consider vital. Dennis Shanahan, political editor, Stop bugging the agents defending our way of life, The Australian, 1 August 2003, p.11
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The Process of Intelligence

one of my first supervisors often said they key to framing and solving intelligence problems was to first do the checkables. Anonymous, Imperial Hubris why the West is losing the War on Terror, Brasseys Inc., Washington DC, 2004 pp.21-22 We need to understand the operational environment of our customers, thats a tough shift to make. How you got [intelligence] is not important. The information and the pedigree of the information is what counts. Maureen Baginski, Executive Director for Intelligence and National Security, FBI and former head of signals intelligence, NSA, Janes online, 19 July 2004 [Intelligence analysts] cannot outperform the laws of reason. It is one thing to expect perspicacity from them; it is another to expect them to be psychic. Bruce G. Blair, President, Center for Defence Information, Sherman Kent Occasional Papers, 11 December 2003 The most important limitation on intelligence is its incompleteness. Much ingenuity and effort is spent on making secret intelligence difficult to acquire and hard to analyseintelligence seldom acquires the full storyit is oftensporadic and patchy, and, even after analysis may still be at best inferential. Butler Report, Review of Intelligence on Weapons of Mass Destruction, 2004 Could you tell me please, which way I ought to go from here? asked Alice. That depends a good deal on where you want to get to, said the Cat. Lewis Carroll, Alices Adventures in Wonderland. If you overload people with a large number of small facts, sometimes they dont notice that it doesnt add up to anything. Richard A. Clarke, Against All Enemies Inside Americas War on Terror, Free Press, NY 2004 p.191 The simple fact is that lots of people, particularly in the Middle East, pass along many rumors and they end up being recorded and filed by US intelligence agencies in raw reports. That does not make them intelligence. Intelligence involves analysis of raw reports, not merely their enumeration or weighing them by the pound. Analysis, in turn, involves finding independent means of corroborating the reports. Richard A. Clarke, Ibid,. p. 269
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Intelligence ismore a matter of pulling together myriad facts, making a pattern of them, and drawing inferences from that pattern. OSS Chief General William Donovan The most serious occupational hazard we have in the intelligence field, the one that causes more mistakes than any foreign deception or intrigue, is prejudice. Allen Dulles, The Craft of Intelligence, Weidenfeld and Nicholson, London, 1963 p.56 Cranks and crackpots run a close second after the fabricators as mischief-makers and time-wasters for the intelligence service. Allen Dulles, Ibid, p.213 Intelligence involves the collection of information and its interpretation through the light of individual preconceptions, modes of thought and attitudes. John Ferris, Indulged in All Too Little?: Vansittart, Intelligence and Appeasement. I hear rumour I see reliable source I know absolute truth. French Service de Renseignement rules of 1930s The mortal enemies of intelligence are time and wishful thinking. G. and M. Friedman, C. Chapman and J. S. Baker Jr., The Intelligence Edge: how to Profit in the Information Age, 1997 Collection without analysis is like foreplay without orgasm only more frustrating. G. and M. Friedman, C. Chapman and J. S. Baker Jr., The Intelligence Edge: how to Profit in the Information Age, 1997
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The Intelligence Community employs various offensive and defensive tools to disrupt, pre-empt and prevent terrorist operations. These tools include: intelligence gathering; analysis and dissemination; criminal investigations and prosecutions in the US and overseas renditions of terrorists abroad for prosecution in US courts, raids on suspected terrorist facilities; use of watch lists to deny terrorists US visas and entry into the US; liaison relationships with foreign intelligence and law enforcement services; covert action; and warnings promulgated to appropriate federal, state and local government agencies, the private sector, including, for example, the aviation industry, and the American public. Eleanor Hill, Staff Director, Joint Inquiry Staff, Joint Inquiry Staff Statement, Part 1, 18 September 2002 Tradecraft may be mysterious to outsiders but it is little more than a compound of common sense, experience, and certain almost universally accepted security practicesThe fact is that tradecraft is like arithmetic: it has been around for centuries. The basics are easy to learn and good texts can be found in any library. Although it is easy to make mistakes under pressure, only the advanced subjects like multiplying fractions or manipulating double agents are particularly complex. William Hood, former CIA officer. In the textbooks, the intelligence cycle is depicted as a cleanly sweeping curve, from tasking to dissemination. In reality, it can only be like a back country road, replete with potholes, detours, and even bridges out. For despite its mechanical moniker, the cycle is a deeply human experience. It depends on personal relations of trust and rapport, clear communications, close affinities not always attainable in this world of strong egos, jarring events, and inevitable mistakes and surprises. Loch K. Johnson, Analysis for a New Age. Any intelligence service is only as good as its records, since without them it does not know how it has got what, from whom, or who has access to what. This depends, of course, upon its making the proper use of its records knowing what it knows and there have been examples of services seeking information they already hold or, more dramatically but thankfully more rarely, attempting to recruit people they have already recruited. Alan Judd, The Quest for C: Sir Mansfield Cumming and the Founding of the British Secret Service, 1999 Order and simplification are the first steps towards the mastery of a subject. Thomas Mann (attrib.)
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it is often simply impossible to explain what lies behind a public alert. Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, Director General of the British Security Service in The International Terrorist Threat and the Dilemmas in Countering It, speech at the Ridderzaal, Binnenhof, The Hague, Netherlands, 1 September 2005 In sum, some [intelligence] is gold, some is dross and all of it requires validation, analysis and assessment. When it is gold it shines and illuminates, saves lives, protects nations and informs policy. When identified as dross it needs to be rejected: that may take some confidence. Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, Ibid. Here is Edward Bear, coming downstairs now, bump, bump bump, on the back of his head, behind Christopher Robin. It is, as far as he knows, the only way of coming downstairs, but sometimes he feels that there really is another way, if only he could stop bumping for a moment and think of it. And then he feels that perhaps there isnt. A.A. Milne Presupposed ideas are the glasses through which new intelligence data is seen and evaluated. Jeffrey OLeary, Surprise and Intelligence: Towards a Clearer Understanding. What is truth? Pontius Pilate ...no event, however cataclysmic, occurs outside of history; events are context and path dependent, and actors respond to challenging situations by drawing on established mentalities and frames of action. Christian Reus-Smit, in The Day The World Changed? Terrorism and World Order, Department of International Relations, RSPAS, ANU, P. 1, October 2001 no-one wants to be left standing when the music stops. Better to share it [low-end information] around and make a judgement that its nonsense than run the risk of missing a dotA sharp increase in available information requires a capacity to discard the rubbish. All too often there is the temptation to have a bet each way and to seek to say all thing to all people for fear of being wrong. Dennis Richardson, Director-General, ASIO, Flood of intelligence imperils quality control, says ASIO chief, The Sydney Morning Herald, 1 August 2003, p 4.
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Never assume the obvious is true. William Safire, Sleeper Spy, 1995 As we acquire more knowledge, things do not become more comprehensible, but more mysterious. Albert Schweitzer To know that we know what we know, and that we do not know what we do not know, that is true knowledge. Henry David Thoreau
Focuses of Intelligence
Law Enforcement
Our revamped intelligence is targetted more at direct and timely dissemination rather than a process of osmosis, spreading intelligence through layers of assessment that slows down its transmission. Australian Federal Police Annual Report 2002-2003 p.16 Intelligence, to be effective, requires a relationship with the community. Australian Federal Police Annual Report 2002-2003 p.16 The power of the FBI is in its distributive nature. The trick is how you enable that strength and orchestrate it against a central set of procedures of doctrine. Maureen Baginski, Executive Director for Intelligence and National Security, FBI, Janes online, 19 July 2004 In the law enforcement/national security business, [intelligence] is information about those who would do us harm in the form of terrorist acts or other crimes, be they property crimes or violent crimes. Robert Casey, FBI Deputy Assistant Director of the Office of Intelligence, 2004 Traditional agents who werent good on the street were put into intelligence. There was no measure of success on that side. Convictions, fines, savings and recoveries were the things that [J. Edgar] Hoover pounded into us as important. Jack Lawn, veteran FBI agent and former Head of the US Drug Enforcement Administration, TIME, 26 April, 2004.
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..the directed and purposeful collection and analysis of intelligence has not previously been a primary mission focus of the FBI Robert Mueller, FBI Director, Reforming Law enforcement, Counterterrorism, and Intelligence Collection in the United States, Staff Statement No. 12, 2003 Rather than being simply an information clearinghouse that has been appended to the organization, ILP [intelligence-led policing] provides strategic integration of intelligence into the overall mission of the organization. Office of Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS0, US Department of Justice, Intelligence-Led Policing: The Integration of Community Policing and Law Enforcement Intelligence, 2004 p 41 Even without an intelligence unit, a law enforcement organization must have the ability to effectively consume the information and intelligence products being shared by a wide range of organizations at all levels of governmentHence, each law enforcement agency must have an understanding of its intelligence management capabilities regardless of its size or organizational structure. Office of Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS0, US Department of Justice, Intelligence-Led Policing: The Integration of Community Policing and Law Enforcement Intelligence, 2004 p13 Intelligence analysts think in degrees of possibility and probability, as opposed to categories of admissibility and degrees of contribution to the ultimate criminalinvestigative aim of proof beyond reasonable doubt. The analyst mindset is thus radically different than that cultivated by training and acculturation within a carefullymanaged bundles of information about specific individuals or organizations for specific purposes. Richard C. Shelby, Vice Chairman, US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 10 December, 2002 There is no way in heck that we will find a terrorist unless the government tells us who they are. Richard Small, global anti-money laundering managing director, Citigroup, The Asian Banker, 15 November 2005
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Commercial Intelligence
[In the 1990s] your ideal contact was a cabinet functionary or a mining company executive rather than a general or a spook. Anonymous former ASIS official in Death watch Bali spy fiasco, Bulletin 12 October 2005 espionage activity acts like a subsidy. James A. Brander, The Economics of Economic Intelligence, 1998 Commercial intelligence may very largely supplement political intelligence, if it is to be properly used. Whenever warlike operations are about to be undertaken, it is clear that the issues of contracts, and other steps affecting the commercial world must precede the actual start of any expedition. The subject requires study, but the great advantage we possess over other nations, in possessing the closest commercial relations with every portshould gain us in the matter of obtaining information, which I believe to be one of the main reasons for success in every operation of war. General E. F. Chapman, Director of Military Intelligence, Britain, 1893 ..economic intelligence does not generally fit traditional officers self-image defined by hard targets, but then, if the target is so soft why task the intelligence services against it at all? It is also quite true that the intelligence services cannot match the media for late breaking news, but scooping the free press is not why governments develop intelligence capabilities in the first place. It isin order to find out precisely that which they cannot learn by overt means. Dr. Philip H.J. Davies, Economic Intelligence and the Asian Financial Crisis, 1998 If you dont think were being exploited by friends and enemies, Buster, youre crazy. Walter Deeley, former Deputy Director, US NSA. Believe it or not, the odds are that trusted employees in your company are right now stealing your product designs, business models, marketing plans, research and development files, and other intellectual property. Just ask the executives at Avery Dennison, Eastman Kodak, Gillette, Joy Mining Machinery, PPG, and many other companies large and small that have lost thousands of research hours and millions of dollars through corporate and industrial espionage. Minh Luong, assistant director of International Security Studies at Yale University, October, 2003
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The narrow definition of the threat to corporate security has traditionally been focussed on crime and fraud: it needs to be widened to include terrorism, for anticipation of that to become an integral part of business planning. Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, Director General of the British Security Service in The International Terrorist Threat and the Dilemmas in Countering It, speech at the Ridderzaal, Binnenhof, The Hague, Netherlands, 1 September, 2005 Economic espionage is a fact of life. Pierre Marion, former Director, French Intelligence A countrys economic structure and attitude towards government involvement in the private sector would be key factors in the successful planning of any policy advocating economic espionage. A strategic trade policy that embraced economic espionage would most likely be adopted in a country where government and industry have close links and where there are companies that could be considered national champions and therefore possible recipients of intelligence. Samuel D. Porteous, Economic and Commercial Interests and Intelligence Services, 1996 We can handle the ordinary industrial spy, but we dont have the technology and know-how to combat the type of advanced technologies governments can throw at us. For example, spy satellites and sophisticated strategic espionage. Jim Royer, FMC Corporation, 1998 Everyone is partly a competitor of everyone else and to that degree properly an intelligence targetCompetition is cooperative and cooperation is competitive. Peter Schweizer, Friendly Spies, 1995 Todays espionage is essentially economic, scientific, technological and financial. [Economic spying on allies] is a normal action of an intelligence agency. Claude Silberzahn, Le Monde, 1993 [The role of intelligence is] to identify opportunities in the international environment, through assessing real or potential competitors intentions and capabilities. This competition may involve the...technological, scientific and economic spheres, particularly in the field of trade. South African White Paper on Intelligence, 1994
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Today, our economic well being is probably more a factor in our national security than our military strength and economic spying is no more immoral than military spying. Admiral Stansfield Turner, former DCI. Guaranteeing access to other countries markets is a responsibility not only of the Economics Ministry but of foreign intelligence. Boris Yeltsin
Military Intelligence
I remember being in Vietnam for two tours and not getting a single piece of useful intelligence, not once. It has gotten better, but we still cant get down to the company level what they need to do the job. Lt. Gen. Walter Boomer, Vietnam and Gulf War veteran I have yet to meet the senior officer who bears with equanimity the trials and tribulations inflicted on a suffering world by the clandestine organizations. The trouble is that they are not (repeat not) commanded locally. They are only controlled locally. Lt Gen. Browning, Chief of Staff, SEAC, 23 Feb 1945 If we were acquainted beforehand with the intentions of the enemy, we should always be more than a match for him even with an inferior force. It is an advantage which all generals are anxious to procure, but very few obtain. Frederick the Great, Article XII of Military Instructions to Generals. By and large, military commanders are not stupid. Even the most intellectually challenged general has always understood that war is a matter of at least two sides and wants, understandably, to be on the winning team. Victory will bring him honours, riches, rewards and the applause of his countrymen. Why then, with such incentives, do approximately 50 percent of them get it so consistently wrong? In the majority of cases, defeat can usually be traced back to a lack of knowledge of the enemy. Whether from overconfidence, ignorance, gullibility or just a failure to comprehend the facts, military defeat is almost invariably associated with an intelligence defeat. Colonel John Hughes-Wilson, Military Intelligence Blunders, 1999 How can any man say what he should do himself if he is ignorant of what his adversary is about? Jomini, Precis de lart de la Geurre, 1838
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For an army that will have to act secretly, unconventionally, and in advance of crises rather than during them, intelligence is critical. Indeed, the growth of Special Forces might be a crude indication of the collapse of any distinction between our military and intelligence services. Yes, the CIA itself might be done away with. What the CIA does, however, will not only grow in importance but also have the support of armed troops within the same bureaucratic framework. Robert D. Kaplan, Special Intelligence, 1998 Nothing is more worthy of the attention of a good general than the endeavour to penetrate the designs of the enemy. Niccolo Maciavelli, Dis corsi xviii, 1531 A general who does not campaign in the desert, but in a fairly populated country, and has no information, is ignorant of his calling. Napoleon What is of the greatest importance is to acquire news. Send, therefore, agents and spies, and, above all, capture some prisoners. Napoleon to Marshal Murat 1805 Adequate intelligence constitutes the fundamental basis for the calculation of risks, the formulation of plans, the development of material, the allocation of resources, and the conduct of operations. General Matthew B. Ridgeway To lack intelligence is to be in the ring blindfolded. General D .M. Shoup, USMC 1960 It is essential to know the character of the enemy and of their principal officers whether they be rash or cautious, enterprising or timid, whether they fight on principle or from chance. Vegetius, 378 AD. There is nothing more necessary than good intelligence to frustrate a designing enemy and nothing that requires greater pains to obtain. George Washington
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National security
Intelligence is cheap compared with armed forces or policing; governments can afford to buy a lot of it for the cost of a frigate, or for the police manpower employed on antiterrorist protection. The British government is said to be spending almost as much on private consultancy fees for the Civil Service as it spends on intelligence. Michael Herman, Intelligence Power in Peace and War, 1996 ASIOs role is defined in legislation by subject matter not geography Paul OSullivan, Director-General of ASIO, in lecture at Bond University, 13 October 2005 I doubt if anyone has ever arrived on their first day as head of a significant organisation knowing less about it than I did about ASIO, or having less experience of administration. Edward Woodward, Director-General of ASIO (1975-1980), One Brief Interval a memoir by Sir Edward Woodward, The Miegunyah Press, 2005, p.161
Sources of Intelligence
Intelligence comprises two principal branches HUMINT or human intelligence; and ELINT and SIGINT, or electronic signals intelligence. Without the latter, we are blind and deaf. Without the former, we are dumb. Count de Marenches, former chief of DGSE, The Fourth World War.
ELINT
This tool has been consistently able to demonstrate that its valuable in investigating serious crime and gathering security intelligence. Phillip Ruddock, Australian Attorney-General, outlining to Parliament increased powers for security agencies to intercept emails, in News.com.au, 10 March 2004
HUMINT
Spying is natural and is one part of diplomatic life. Ali Alatas, Indonesian Foreign Minister, The Independent, 2 June 1995
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It [the CIA] has battered child syndrome. former Secretary of State Madelaine Albright, on the CIAs perceived riskaverse approach to operations, in Richard A.Clarke, Against All Enemies, p. 277 OK, so were trying to pit young, mostly white, middle-class, university-educated intelligence officers with bad language skills and little knowledge of Islam against poor, zealous, Islamic-extremist men with nothing to lose and who want to become suicide bombers. I know whos going to win this war. anonymous former ASIS official in Death watch Bali spy fiasco, Bulletin 12 October 2005 The ideal ASIS recruit at the moment would be a second-generation Muslim, perhaps Lebanese or Asian, probably university or TAFE educated, whose dad is a bus driver and [who] has a stay-at-home mum. He or she would not drink, they would understand the good book [the Koran] and go to mosque on a Friday night. They would love languages and want to protect moderate Islamthey cannot get these sorts of people. anonymous former ASIS official, Ibid. The ideal recruit would be someone with very good academic qualifications, preferably in history or politics, with good language skills and from an ethnic background other than Anglo Celtic background. Professor Hugh White, Head of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, the Australian National University, Canberra Times, 22 October 2005, p.2 today its a much more attractive environment than being sidled up to by some sleazy academic in a patched tweed coat. Professor Hugh White, Ibid, on ASIOs recruitment process. For anyone who is tired of life the thrilling life of a spy should be the finest reciperator. Lord Robert Baden-Powell, 1915 One of the problems with intelligence operations was that what looked suspicious was often innocuous, and what innocuous could well be suspicious. Tom Clancy, The Bear and the Dragon, Penguin 2000, p 338
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I needed relative certainty that the missiles had hit and none of you guys could give me that.so I called CNNthey didnt have anybody in Baghdad tonight, but their cameraman in their Jordan bureau had a cousin or some relative who lived near the intelligence headquarters, so they called him the cousin said, yeah, the whole place blew up. He was certainso I figured we had relative certainty. President Bill Clinton, referring to proof that US missiles had hit the Iraqi Intelligence Headquarters in 1993, in Richard A. Clarke,Against All Enemies pp. 83-84 Money opens the most secret cabinets of princes. Hotman de Villiers, 1603 You want to look at your security services as the goal-keeper and your clandestine service as the full forward. Alfred Deakin Brookes, founding Director-General of ASIS, 1955 Money is to espionage what petrol is to the motor car. Len Deighton, The IPCRESS File. Regular or temporary? Regular, mon General, Any decorations? None, mon General, Speak English? Fluently, mon General. Done any fighting yet? I was at Narvok, mon General. ...a seconds pause All right, you can start my Intelligence Service the Deuxieme Bureau. Lieutenant de Boislambert, outside, will find you an office. Captain Andre Dewarin describing his meeting with General Charles de Gaulle in which the French Resistance espionage service was formed at St Stephens House, Westminster, in 1939, in Collier, Richard, Ten Thousand Eyes, E.P. & Co., 1958 p.16
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One could do only ones best, day by day, thinking of it clinically, as a job to be done, pressing back the terror and the sense of loneliness and the knowledge that a man could manufacture his own defeat in the recesses of his heart, because he was sick of lying and hiding and fearing and came to believe that death was the better bargain. Marcel Girard, western regional organiser for Century and Secret Army chief for 14 departments of Normany, Brittany, Poitou, Anjou and Maine, in Collier, Richard, Ten Thousand Eyes, E.P. & Co., 1958 p.97 Once trust has been earned, true two-way information sharing can occur. Ronald L. Dick, Director, National Infrastructure Protection Center, FBI, Statement for the Record before the Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs, 8 May 2002 Spy a person hired to watch the actions, notions, etc., of another; particularly of what passes in a camp. When a spy is discovered he is hanged immediately. Encyclopaedia Britanica, 1771 Unilateral operations will return to be part of the governing paradigm for the CIAwe are going to be in places people cant even imagine. Porter Goss, Director of the CIA, in David Morgan, CIA to do its own spywork overseas, 22 September 2005 The life of spies is to know, not to be known. George Herbert, Outlandish Proverbs, 1640 Running spies is far more complex than setting collection requirements and receiving raw intelligence information in exchange for money. It often entails getting into the head and guts of the recruited spy. Frederick P. Hitz, The Great Game the Myth and Reality of Espionage, Alfred A. Knopf, New York, 2004, p.79 Confirming and amplifying information acquired by other means is often the role spy information plays best. Frederick P. Hitz, Ibid, p.79 Espionage is illegal and the clandestine services job is to break those laws without being caught. Justice Robert Hope, Royal Commission on Intelligence and Security, 1977
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A million raindrops flowing into the Amazon. David Kelly, China specialists at Singapores East Asia Institute, describing Chinese espionage practice, in The Sydney Morning Herald, 6 June 2005 It was intrigue, of course, he knew that much, as he had known all evil since he could speak, but what he loved was the game for its own sake the stealthy prowl through the dark gullies and lanes, the crawl up a water-pipe, the sights and sounds of the womens world on the flat roofs, and the headlong flight from housetop to housetop under cover of the hot dark. Rudyard Kipling, Kim, Bantam Classics, 1983. original published 1901, pp.2-3 When everyone is dead, the Great Game is finished. Not before. Rudyard Kipling, Kim, Bantam Classics, 1983 orig. published 1901 One mans agent is another mans lunch guest. David Leigh, The Wilson Plot, 1988 Some of my best friends are spies. Geoffrey McDermot, retired British diplomat The man who abhors chaos and confusion and who cannot endure disappointments had better stay out of the spy business. Dr W.J. Morgan, Spies and Saboteurs, Picking and Training Them. For intelligence, there is nothing like a keen-witted, handsome woman, Patrick OBrian, Desolation Island, p.56 They [CIA] had nobody in the country [Somalia] when the Marines landed. Then they sent in a few guys who had never been there before. They swapped people out every few weeks and they stayed holed up in the US compound on the beach, in comfy trailer homes that they had flown in by the Air Force Army Special Forces Colonel Mike Sheehan, in Richard A. Clarke, Against All Enemies Inside Americas War on Terror, Free Press, New York 2004 pp. 83-84 Singapore is so small, no matter how small you are in size, eventually people do talk about it, and we get information. Wong Kan Seng, Home Minister, discussing collection of intelligence on terrorism, Patterns of Global Terrorism, 2001
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spying is not a custom but a tool of policy; spies do not graze the field aimlessly, they carry out tasks. James Sherr, Cultures of Spying. The king hath note of all that they intend, by interception which they dream not of. William Shakespeare, King Henry V, Act II, Scene II The work of an agent in the Intelligence Department is on the whole extremely monotonous. A lot of it is uncommonly useless. W. Somerset Maugham, Ashenden: or: The British Agent, Doubleday, New York, 1941, originally published 1928, p.4. An army without secret agents is exactly like a man without eyes and ears. Sun Tzu, The Art of War. Foreknowledge cannot be gotten from ghosts and spirits, cannot be had by analogy, cannot be found out by calculation. It must be obtained from people, people who know the conditions of the enemy. Sun Tzu Espionage is an effort to find windows into mens souls. attributed to Francis Walsingham [espionage produces] uncertain information from questionable people . Admiral Wemyss, British First Sea Lord, 1918
MASINT
Another important lesson for improving WMD analysis comes from the report of Admiral David Jeremiah after the failure to predict the Indian nuclear tests in May 1998. Jeremiah reported that technical experts who look for technical signatures of WMD programs have typically dominated WMD intelligence. The Intelligence Community must more effectively integrate analysis of what I call human signatures the attitudes and motivations of foreign leaders as well as social, cultural, and regional trends into analyses of WMD programs. Congresswoman Jane Harman, Ranking Member, House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, American Enterprise Institute press release, 5 March 2004
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IMINT
One picture is worth more than ten thousand words. Chinese proverb Pictures that only nation-states used to have are now commercially available with a credit card, so the rules [of classification] need to be reviewed. Lt. Gen. Thomas Goslin, Deputy Commander, US Strategic Command, in Noah Shachtman, Spies Attack White House Secrecy, Washington Post, 16 October 2003
OSINT
Theres no better way to find out what Osama bin Ladens going to do than to read what he says. Michael Scheuer, former chief of the CIAs Al Qaida Unit, The Australian, 9 August 2005, p.8 OSINT is not a substitute for spies or satellites or other sensitive collection capabilities. Evil and conflict are a natural condition of man. As our national infrastructures and social fabric become increasingly complex and vulnerable to attack by individuals and gangs, it will be ever more imperative that our clandestine collection capabilities be fully effective. OSINT is the foundation for all-source collection and all-source analysis, and not to be confused with the result. Robert D. Steele, Open Source Intelligence: Executive Overview, 1998
SIGINT
Sometimes you need lots of dots to discern the high quality dots. In SIGINT you sometimes need volume to find the right information, but you cannot always be in gather modeyou have to get the right dots. Maureen Baginski, Executive Director for Intelligence and National Security at the FBI and former head of signals intelligence, National Security Agency, Janes online, 19 July 2004 To date, SIGINT has provided decisionmakers with the vast bulk of operational information on counterterrorism. National technical mechanisms cannot be allowed to atrophy further. In reality, however, all-source intelligence provides the only viable means of obtaining timely intelligence. Both HUMINT and SIGINT capabilities should
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be bolsteredsome of the largest areas of potential improvement lie in utilizing the overlap between two intelligence disciplines using SIGINT to reinforce HUMINT, and vice versa to develop innovative synergies. In addition, the signal-to-noise ration must be improved. Because officials received dozens of threats each week, the agencies must develop mechanisms to separate actionable intelligence from empty warnings. Frank J. Cilluffo, Ronald A. Marks and George C. Salmoiraghi The Use and Limits of US Intelligence, The Washington Quarterly, Winter 2002 P.67 They do have to talk to each other, communicate over distances and move around, and that makes them vulnerable to technical intelligence gathering Dame Stella Rimington, Former Head of MI5, The Guardian, 4 September 2002
Skills and Qualities in Intelligence

Bond had to be good at the blackjack table and behind the wheel of an Aston Martin. Our spies must have attention for detail and the ability to sift information for the tiniest clues to help foil a terrorist attack. Anonymous intelligence official, Sunday Telegraph, 28 March 2004 I have found, in my career, that the IC leaks this kind of sentiment [there is a shortage of expertise eg. Language skills, relating to a target] only when senior managers have failed to develop a cadre of substantive experts, when they want to put their pets in charge of programs for which they have no substantial expertise, or when they want to prepare the public for failure. Anonymous, Imperial Hubris why the West is losing the War on Terror, Brasseys Inc., Washington DC, 2004 pp.29-30 Most prized is the generalist, the officer who changes jobs every two years, flitting from Europe to East Asia to arms control to narcotics. Conversant in many topics, expert in none, these usually male officers are fast-tracked for senior managementFor their money, elected leaders get access to well-dressed, articulate and politicallysensitive dilettantes, and hear nothing from idiosyncratic, intuitive, and reality-prone experts. Ibid, p.245
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Its frankly scary to look at the number of middle managers that are diving out with 10,15, 20 years in because theyre going to make $US175,000 or $US200,000. It reduces what we call the blue badgegovernment people with clearancesOften you leave behind the deadwood. The deadwood gets in charge, and then even more people move on. Anonymous CIA official, in David Morgan, CIA faces spy shortages as staffers go private, Reuters, 3 October 2005. .it is the patient analyst who arranges, ponders, tries out alternate hypotheses and draws conclusions. What he is bringing to the task is the substantive background, the imagination and originality of the sound and careful scholars. Allen Dulles, The Craft of Intelligence, Weidenfeld and Nicholson, London, 1963 p.159 the so-called tradecraft of intelligence is unique to a degree that there are few colleges which provide studies which automatically place one man in a more advantageous position than another. The only influence previous studies or experience has on a mans career in intelligence is to direct him more towards the analytical or the collective side as the case may be, or more towards one geographic area of the world than another, or, if he is a technical expert, into some specialised area of intelligence. Allen Dulles, Ibid, p.175 Our people [CIA] do not go into intelligence for financial reward or because the service can give them, in return for their work, high rank or public acclaim. They are there because of the opportunity to serve their country, the fascination of the work and the belief that through this service they personally can make a contribution to our nations security. Allen Dulles, Ibid, p.256 he [William J. Donovan of OSS fame] had divided his busy life in peacetime between the law, government service and politics. He knew the world, having travelled widely. He understood people. He had a flair for the unusual and for the dangerous, tempered with judgement. In short, he had the qualities to be desired in an intelligence officer. Allen Dulles, Ibid, p.47 jobs in intelligence are manifold and there is room for many kinds of talent. Allen Dulles, Ibid, p.171
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When I was at Cambridge it was, naturally enough I felt, my ambition to be approached in some way by an elderly homosexual don and asked to spy for or against my country. Stephen Fry when your only instrument is a hammer, everything looks like a tack. Willared Gaylin (M.D.), Hatred the Psychological Descent into Violence. PublicAffairs [sic] New York, 2003. P.20 This new game gives a good indication of the various skills that enable us to make a vital contribution to the security of the UK. Its common knowledge that we are always on the lookout for gifted mathematicians, linguists and technologists but this game shows how generalist skills can also play a part. GCHQ spokesman on the release of an interactive scenario-based computer game to test the skills of potential applicants, Western Daily Press, 13 October 2004, www.gchq.gov.uk I expect and encourage calculated risk-taking and it will be rewarded. I also expect it to go right, but I know it wont go right all the time. And when it goes wrong, I will support you. Porter Goss, Director of the CIA, in David Morgan, CIA to do its own spywork overseas, Reuters, 22 September 2005 Its difficult to recruit people to join organisations when they feel besieged by them. Ibrahim Hooper, a spokesman for the Council on American-Islamic Relations, in Alexander Marks, Recruiting spies: tricks of a murky trade, The Christian Science Monitor, 2 September 2004 Intelligence is best done by a minimum number of men and women of the greatest possible ability. R.V. Jones, assistant director, Royal Air Force Intelligence Section during World War II, and generally regarded as the father of scientific and technical intelligence. There was a belief in Whitehall that putting an outside man in charge of the Secret Services will bring them under better control and curb the wild men. In fact, the opposite happens/ The outsider knows neither the qualities of the individuals in the Service nor how in their daily routine work the events arise which determine their decisions. George Kennedy Young, former Deputy Chief of MI6, in Michael Smith, New Cloak, Old Dagger: How Britains Spies Came in from the Cold. 1996
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He had no craft or qualification, no proven skills outside the golf course and the bedroom. What he understood best was English rot, and what he needed was a decaying English institution that would restore to him what other decaying institutions had taken away. His first thought was Fleet Street. He was semi-literate and unfettered by principle. He had scores to settleA great animal charity had him and for a while he believed he had found his trues vocationfor a giddy week he contemplated the Anglican Church, which traditionally offered swift promotion to glib, sexually agnostics on the make. His piety evaporated when his researches revealed to him that catastrophic investment has reduced the Church to unwelcome Christian povertyHow about the BBC? he asked the Secretary, back at his university appointments board for the fifth or fifteenth occasionhe proposed that national Trustwith trembling fingers the Secretary lifted a corner of a file and peered inside. I suppose they might take you. Youre disreputable. Charm of a sort. Bilingual, if they like Spanish The National Trust? No, no, the spies. Here. Take this to a dark corner and fill it in with invisible ink. John Le Carre, The Tailor of Panama. He is an extraordinary old bird, obstinate as a mule, with a chin like the cut-water of a battleship. Compton Mackenzie, describing the contemporary C. 1916 Intelligence work requires careful training and people who are shrewd, objective and sensible and can manage the uncertainty of intelligence. Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, Director General of the British Security Service in The International Terrorist Threat and the Dilemmas in Countering It, speech at the Ridderzaal, Binnenhof, The Hague, Netherlands, 1 September 2005 Many of these people are unknown in the field and some, indeed, are charlatans. Michael McKinley, Department of Political Science, Australian National University, on some academics involved in offering terrorism and counterterrorism courses, The Australian, 26 October 2005 The first time MI5 advertised in The Guardian, it got 14,000 applications. 13,000 were in need of serious medical help. Open recruiting attracts people who have confused MI5 with the SAS . MI5 source quoted in The Independent on Sunday, 29 February 2004 In addition to being right most of the time, the good intelligence officer must also have two other qualities to help him sublimate the ugly aspect of his calling: a deep love of his country and an unshakable belief in his principles. To be a master of spies,
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a man must be above all a master of himself and must be convinced of the intrinsic goodness of his cause. General Frantisk Moravec, former Head of Czech Military Intelligence 1938-1948 Diplomats and Intelligence agents, in may experience, are even bigger liars than journalists, and the historians who try to reconstruct the past out of their records are, for the most part, dealing in fantasy. Malcolm Muggeridge, Chronicle of Wasted Time: The Infernal Grove. That intelligence analysts should hold theories is in a way inevitable, because without them the mass of information with which they have to cope would become unmanageable. But they can easily become the prisoners of their theories, with those theories acting as blinkers to exclude any evidence that does not conform to their expectations. Avi Shlaim, Failures in National Intelligence Estimates: The Case of the Yom Kippur War, p.349 I decided to advertise publicly for intelligence officers, stipulating a tertiary qualification as a prerequisite. What we were looking for were not dedicated anticommunists, but people with an interest in public and international affairs who did not have strong political prejudices. We were not concerned about the types of degrees they held. The tertiary qualification was seen as indicating a level of intelligence, and commitment to achieving a goal, rather than as providing a particular expertise. Edward Woodward, Director-General of ASIO (1975-1980), One Brief Interval a memoir by Sir Edward Woodward, The Miegunyah Press, 2005, p.164
The Culture of Intelligence

Across the intelligence community and across the law enforcement agencies, you get a scattering of senior people who are of the brethren and have difficulty in seeing the wider canvas. Where organisations can work effectively together is where theyve outgrown that. Anonymous intelligence source, in Deborah Snow and Darren Goodsir, The Velvet Glove, The Steel Fist, The Sydney Morning Herald, 14 July 2003 Intelligence is not uniquely worthy of belief. Intelligence is uniquely worthy of scepticism. Lord Butler, in Britains intelligence services Cats Eyes in the Dark, The Economist, 17 March 2005
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The campaign of rumour [on whether Charles II had married his mistress and so altered the succession] had begun in the late summer. All sorts of stories were given credence, generally on the sanguine principle that two improbabilities added together make a possibility, and four improbabilities a certainty. Antonia Fraser, King Charles II, Phoenix Books, 1979 We should ensure intelligence gathering tools residing in different agencies will work seamlessly across agency boundaries while moving from a need to know culture to a need to share culture. Congresswoman Jane Harman, Ranking Member, House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, 5 March 2004. The Army people wore Intelligence Corps insignia, described to me by one of them as a pansy resting on its laurels. Indeed, I was to find that there were quite a few of those and very charming they were. Anonymous, in Hill, Marion, Bletchley Park People Churchills Geese that Never Cackled, Sutton Publishing Ltd, UK, 2004
Images of Intelligence
Bonds professionalism is one of the best things about him, both as a moral quality and as a relief from that now defunct and always irritating personage, the gifted amateur who is called, or just happens to wander in, when MI5 is baffled and the Cabinet is in despair. Kingsley Amis The world of the spy story is, by definition, founded on deception, betrayal, and duplicity. But at the same time it is also one in which patriotism, duty and selfless sacrifice supply the springs of action. It is a genre replete with dualities. The spy story can present itself as a plain non-nonsense thriller, or cloak itself in shifting ambiguities: celebrate cynical manipulation as much as honourable enterprise; tell it like it is, or how it never was. Read it one way and it can be filed under adventure, pure and simple; read it another, and it becomes propaganda, or even a potent philosophical metaphor, sometimes it is all three at once. Michael Cox, in Introduction to The Oxford Book of Spy Stories, Oxford University Press, 1996
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if one leaves the more fantastic conceits of Ian Fleming and Tom Clancy aside, real espionage cases are often more bizarre, more deserving of a place in Ripleys than the fictional accounts. Frederick P. Hitz, The Great Game the Myth and Reality of Espionage, Alfred A. Knopf, New York, 2004, p.6 Its important for the public to know more about the service and to explain why MI6 has to be secret in its operations and personnelstaff who join SIS can look forward to a career that will have moments when the gap between truth and fiction narrows just a little and the certainty of a stimulating and rewarding career which, like Bonds will be service of their country. MI6 spokesperson Nev Johnson during the launch of MI6s first web site, AFP 13 October 2005 Purposeful leg-pullingis a small pointer to the tradition of humour and self-mockery that became one of the British Secret Services best-kept secrets. Humour is strangely absent from most spy books, whether memoirs or novels. Perhaps it is hard to be thrilling while being funny. Even in the rare spy story that does have it the humour arises from the absurdities of those who take themselves too seriously rather than from individual character and institutional spirit. Alan Judd, The Quest for V: sir Mansfield Cumming and the Founding of the British Secret Service, 1999 Old MI6 hands do not knock Mr.Bond; he helps reduce that gap in spending power between the Brits and the Americans. CIA veterans acknowledge that, where they may need a brown envelope stuffed with dollars, an officer from MI6 can sometimes rely on brand image alone. Anonymous MI6 officer, in Britains intelligence services Cats Eyes In the dark, The Economist, 17 March 2005 Its time to give our intelligence agencies a go. They are belted from pillar to post for acting too early, too late, too hard, too soft, not saying enough, saying too much, alarming people, reassuring people, not spotting warnings but falling for false alarms and always acting against our interest and civil liberties in a McCarthyist fashion. Dennis Shanahan, political editor, Stop bugging the agents defending our way of life, The Australian, 1 August 2003, p.11
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Of course, novelists have preferred to portray dedicated intelligence professionals, as John Bingham complained to John le Carre, as moles, morons, shits and homosexuals, as description that he pointed put to his former protg makes the intelligence job no easier . Nigel West, in the introduction to Alexander Kouzminov, Biological Espionage, Greenhill Books, 2005, p.17 The work of the Organisation is, in fact, far removed from the popular conceptions encouraged by imaginative thriller writers and unimaginative journalists. It is, of course, an article of faith among almost all journalists that intelligence organisations are antidemocratic, anti-Labor, out of control and deserve to be frustrated and exposed wherever possible. Edward Woodward, Director-General of ASIO (1975-1980), One Brief Interval a memoir by Sir Edward Woodward, The Miegunyah Press, 2005, p.191
Ethics in Intelligence
The game of espionage is too dirty for anyone but a gentleman. Anonymous British intelligence officer Americans want to know whats going on in the whorehouse, but you cant find out by talking to Mother Teresa. Les Aspin, Former US Secretary of Defense Espionage is the worlds second oldest profession and just as honourable as the first. Michael Barratt, Journal of Defence and Diplomacy, 1984 Government service, after all, is a privilege not a right, and to retain a government position one should live up to certain standards of moral conduct, standards which should be higher than those applied to others. Allen Dulles, The Craft of Intelligence, Weidenfeld and Nicholson, London, 1963 p.233 Espionage is not a game for archbishops. Allen Dulles
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This judgement I have of you that you will not be corrupted with any manner of gift, and that you will be faithful to the State, and that, without respect of my private will, you will give me that counsel that you think best, and that if you shall know anything necessary to be declared to me of secrecy you shall show it to myself only. Elizabeth I to William Cecil, her chief of intelligence The very term spy conveys to our mind something dishonourable and disloyal. A spy, in the general acceptance of the term, or a low sneak who, from unworthy motives, dodges the actions of his fellow beings, to turn the knowledge he acquires to his personal account. His underhand dealings inspire us with such horror that we would blush at the very idea of having to avail ourselves of any information obtained through such an agency. Colonel G.A. Furse, 1895 Every kind of service, necessary to the public good, becomes honourable by being necessary. Nathan Hale, American spy during the American War of Independence, 1775 One of the canons governing military or police action is the doctrine of minimum force, and a parallel canon should govern intelligence; it should be conducted with the minimum trespass against national and individual human rights. This canon applies to all forms of intelligence, both external and internal, that a civilized state may find it necessary to undertake. R.V.Jones, Reflections on Intelligence O ye who believe! Shun much suspicion; for lo! Some suspicion is a crime. And spy not, neither backbite one another. The Koran (Surah XLIX.12) Espionage is the secret theatre of our society. In the large back rooms we find out who we are what we want, what are our ethical priorities, what freedoms we value, and what other freedoms we will give up to protect them. John le Carre (Espionage) is like being a lavatory attendant; it stinks but someone has to do it. Donald Maclean A spy must be a man of integrity and yet must be prepared to be a criminal. A man with scruples is useless in our business. Bernard Newman, The World of Espionage
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The exercise of power does not necessarily corrupt. The craft of intelligence can have as its practitioners those who were able to maintain their integrity while being liars and obfuscators. Paul Seabury, Intelligence Requirements for the 1980s: Covert Action.
Accountability and Intelligence

You can arrive at a police state through one of two means: one, by an intelligence agency becoming more like a police force; or two, by a police force becoming more like an intelligence agency or security agency. Anonymous intelligence source, in Deborah Snow and Darren Goodair, The Velvet Glove, The Steel Fist, the Sydney Morning Herald, 14 July 2003 Disclosure is like pulling teeth. They [intelligence agencies] see little room or need for public oversight. People might imagine the classification serves the interest of the government, but its molasses in the gears of the policy process. Steven Aftergood, head of the Federation of American Scientists Project on Government Secrecy, in Noah Shachtman, Spies Attack White House Secrecy, Washington Post, 16 October 2003 There is no question in my mindthat we overclassify, we needlessly classify some things. We err on the side of classification. In peacetime it seems foolish. In wartime, when theres a serious threat, it doesnt seem quite so foolish. So I would say it depends a little bit on your perspective. I would say generally we have overclassified. There is probably a great deal of information that should not be classified, that needs to be declassified. Porter Goss, former chair of the House Intelligence Committee, and current head of the CIA, in Federal Association of Scientists Project on Government Secrecy Volume 2002, Issue No. 56, 21 June 2002. Rather than putting data into separate partitions, where only a few people have access to it, authorities need to make information available by job to whoever needs itregardless of their security clearance. Richard Clarke in Noah Shachtman, Spies Attack White House Secrecy, Washington Post, 16 October 2003 A profession whose end purpose is to root out the truth cannot afford to resist asking where its limits should be set. E. Drexel Godfrey, Ethics and Intelligence.
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Our secrecy system is all about protecting secrecy officers, and has nothing to do with protecting secrets. Its a self-licking ice-cream coneWere compartmentalizing the shit out of things. Its causing a total meltdown of our intelligence processes. Rich Haver, former special assistant for intelligence to Donald Rumsfeld, in Noah Shachtman, Spies Attack White House Secrecy, Washington Post, 16 October 2003 I submit that there is no federal agency of our government whose activities receive closer scrutiny and control than the CIA. Lyman Kirkpatrick, Former Executive Director of the CIA, 1971 Intelligence work has one moral law it is justified by results. John le Carre, The Spy who Came in from the Cold, Ballantine Books, 1992, originally published 1963 Legislative oversight is policy-related, as opposed to judicial oversight and its concerns with legal questions. And legislative oversight tends towards micromanagement of executive decisions, where judicial oversight is more deferential. But a rule of thumb for a simple country lawyer is that when you have to go and explain to someone important what you have been doing and why, that is oversight, regardless of its source. Frederic F. Manget, Intelligence and the Rise of Judicial Intervention, 1996 ...the world has changed and there needs to be a debate on whether some erosion of what we all value may be necessary to improve the chances of our citizens not being blown apart as they go about their daily lives. Another dilemma. Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, Director General of the British Security Service in The International Terrorist Threat and the Dilemmas in Countering It, speech at the Ridderzaal, Binnenhof, The Hague, Netherlands, 1 September 2005 Basic government-in-sunshine laws, such as the Freedom of Information Act and the Federal Advisory Committee Act, have been limited in their application to the new Department [of Homeland Security]. David R. Obey, Democrat, Wisconsin, and Henry A. Waxman, Democrat, California, Washington Post, 11 July 2002
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If the argument is that we simply do things in order to make it seem to supervisory authorities and so on that we have been using the resources we have, then I can assure the committee that this is not the case. We have a very high degree of transparency and accountability within the system to demonstrate to the inspector-general, this committee, the minister, the parliament and so on that we use the resources we are given in a way that is directed at real problems, not simply ones that justify their existence. Paul OSullivan, Director-General, ASIO, AAP 5 September 2005 We will conduct our work with legality and probity and with due regards to human rights and civil libertiesUltimately ASIO will only be effective so long as we continue to enjoy the trust of the community in which we serve and in which we operate. Paul OSullivan, Director-General, ASIO, AAP, 31 October 2005 Too many people in the world today know how we go about our businessI would argue that what I will call intelligence oversight hobby shopping by individuals who get a kick out of just supplying informationespecially when its for no real cause; but in the name of opennesshave absolutely no idea what the impact of their information is, and how damaging it can be. Timothy R. Sample, Staff Director, House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, speaking at an American Bar Association conference, National Security Law in a Changing World, Arlington, Virginia, Intelligence, N.413, 16 December 2002, p.15 Too distant a relationship between elected governments and the permanent intelligence community with its special powers and privileges might be seen as both a cause of inefficiency and a matter of irresponsibility on the part of elected officials, given the dangers of such agencies acting as autonomous forces. Reg Whitacker, The Politics of Security Intelligence Policy Making in Canada During my six years as Director-General, ASIO must have become the worlds most accountable intelligence service. Edward Woodward, Director-General of ASIO (1975-1980), One Brief Interval a memoir by Sir Edward Woodward, The Miegunyah Press, 2005, p.189
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Counter-Intelligence
The Three Intelligence Commandments: 1. Thou shalt not get caught. 2. If thou ist caught, we have never heard of thee. 3. Given the foregoing, no other commandments are necessary. Anonymous I met (him) at a Legation Ball where he welcomed me with shouts of Hello, here is old Best the arch spy know all about you etc.etc. The last I saw of him he was vomiting on some ladys lap. Sigismund Payne Best, British Intelligence Officer later captured by the SS in 1939 I wonder if a man is less a traitor when he is twice a traitor? G.K. Chesterton, The Fairy Tale of Father Brown If you know a thing, it is always a great temptation to show that you know it; to talk about it, in other words. It is not that you want to give information, it is not that you have been offered payment to give information. It is that you want to show how important you are. Yes, its as simple as that. Mr Robinson, in Agatha Christie, Passenger to Frankfurt, 1970. The potential of the new resources, people, laws, and supportive rhetoric given to the intelligence community is, unfortunately, being sapped in a losing battle against Washingtons corps of leakers. Anonymous, Imperial Hubris why the West is losing the War on Terror, Brasseys Inc., Washington DC, 2004 p.195 There is only one thing worse than finding a spy in your organisation, and that is not finding a spy in your organisation. DCI John Deutch, 1966. People betray the land of their fathers for many reasons: resentment, ideology, lack of promotion, hatred of a single superior, shame for their sexual preferences, fear of being summonsed home in disgrace. Frederick Forsyth, The Deceiver.
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As soon as you tell someone that something is secret, their brains go into overdrive trying to figure out what the secret is. G. and M. Friedman, C. Chapman and J.S. Baker Jr, The Intelligence Edge: How to Profit in the Information Age 1997 Someone once said to me that four or five years in counter-espionage is too long, and causes insanity. Sir Martin Furnival Jones, former head of UK Security Service He was, like other intelligence officers, stricken with an urge to confide. It was too strong, like a devil that beats you over the head with your own secrets until you had to let one out. To relieve the pressure you would tell half a secret, or an old, used-up secret, or boast of the secrets you knew. The cursed things had a life of their own, like weeds that threatened to grow right out of your head into plain sight. Alan Furst, Night Soldiers the way to an intelligence officers heart is through his stomach. Lt. Gen. K. Grigoriev, KGB officer who recruited George Blake by slipping him bread and chocolate during his captivity in North Korea A spys security can be breached in many ways; by indiscreet talk, wrong clothes, wrong habits and so on, but his communications are his point of maximum vulnerability. Peter Hamilton, Espionage and Subversion in an Industrial Society What took you so long? Robert Hanssen, FBI agent and Russian mole, when arrested for espionage CI is defensive; it is a way of thinking and seeing; it is the glass half empty, the ability to view the dark side of the moon. Frederick P. Hitz, The Great Game the Myth and Reality of Espionage, Alfred A. Knopf, New York, 2004, p.56 Secrecy in intelligence is a virtue as well as a necessity. The sources of information and the methods by which information is gathered must remain unknown to the targets of intelligence. The extent of knowledge about an adversary has to be hidden as well as must the operations aimed at him. But in modern democracies, intelligence services require public support and need to earn public trust to be completely functional. Without such support and trust, the services will not be able to obtain resources or
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recruit talented people, and their judgements will be questioned by those who use the intelligence product. Maintaining secrecy while gaining public support creates a dilemma for intelligence services in democracies Arthur S. Hulnick,Openness: Being Public About Secret Intelligence, International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, Vol 12 No 4 Simply put, disclosing information on intelligence sources and methods puts sensitive information into the public arena where any foreign government, terrorist organization, or hostile non-state actor may discover it. Michael Hurt Leaking National Security Secrets: Effects on Security and Measures to Mitigate, National Security Studies Quarterly, Autumn 2001, p.11 An intelligence service should be watertight so that its sources dont dry up Danish Defence Minister Svend Aage Jensby on intelligence leaks, Copenhagen Danmarks Radio 19 March 2004 Never trust people with vices you cant see. Alan Judd, Legacy, Harper Collins, 2002, p.130 You and I have some of the same people working for each other. Nikita Khruschev to Allen Dulles, US DCI I dont give a damn about protocol. Im a swinger. Bring out the beautiful spies. Henry Kissinger Secrets are a strain. John le Carre, The Perfect Spy Hello, Spies! usual greeting by an American agent in the bar of the Park Hotel, Istanbul, a common meeting point during World War 2, in Lelor, A and Boyes, R, Surviving Hitler Corruption and Compromise in the Third Reich, 1988, p. 231 Boo, boo, baby, Im a spy. song favored by the pianist in the same hotel It is a commonplace of counter-espionage work that success comes and spies are caught not through the exercise of genius or even through the detectives flair for obscure clues, but by means of the patient and laborious study of records. J.C. Masterman, The Double Cross System
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The whole point of s Secret Service is that it should be secret. Compton McKenzie, Water on the Brain. He did not think [Cayper] had become a spy merely for the money; he was a man of modest tastesIt might be that he was one of those men who prefer devious ways to straight for some intricate pleasure they get in fooling their fellows. that he had turned spy.from a desire to score off the big-wigs who never even knew of his existence. It might be that it was vanity that had impelled him, a feeling that his talents had not received the recognition they merited, or just a puckish, impish desire to do mischief. W. Somerset Maugham,Ashenden; or, The British Agent, William Heinemann 1928 Spies, being human, often invent a better-sounding motive as their sole reason for betraying their country is money. General Frantisek Moravec, former head, Czech Military Intelligence Secrecy is as essential to intelligence as vestments and incense to a Mass, or darkness to a spiritualist sance, and must at all costs be maintained Malcolm Muggeridge, Chronicles of a Wasted Life, 1974, p.123 In general, I do not agree with spying against ones country. Melita Norwood, British national and former KGB spy, codenamed HOLA, after being exposed in 1999 for having spied on Britains nuclear weapons program for some 40 years Defectors are like grapes. The first pressings from them are the best. The third and fourth lack body. Sir Maurice Oldfield, former chief of MI6 To betray you must first belong. I never belonged. Kim Philby, 1967 Americans are just too nice to do counterintelligence well. Paul Redmond in Frederick P. Hitz, Ibid, p.62 Counter intelligence is paranoia made systematic by a card index. Joseph B. Smith, retired CIA official
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Treason is a matter of dates. Talleyrand Theres always evidence of another mole because there are always unexplained events. There are always enough dots that look strange. US senior intelligence official, TIME, February 7, 2005, p.19 Theyre baaaaack. former senior US Cold War era counterintelligence official on the upsurge in the number of Russian spies in the US, TIME, February 7, 2005, p 19 95 percent of our secret information has been published by newspapers and slick magazines. President Harry Truman, in Allen Dulles, The Craft of Intelligence, Weidenfeld and Nicholson, London, 1963 p.233 The first, most important, rule of successful intelligence work: No one must know anything he does not explicitly need to know. Markus Wolf, former head of East Germanys foreign intelligence service, Hauptverwaltung Aufklarung (HVA), The Man Without a Face : The Memoirs of a Spymaster, 1997
Intelligence Failures
Its also important to have a devils advocate, somebody playing the contrarian; Im afraid some of that may have gotten lost. Senator Evan Bayh, Democrat, Indiana, Reuters, 7 July 2004 It wasnt an issue of sexing up the advice, it was an issue of ignoring the advice. Kim Beazley, The Age, 2 March 2004, p.4 [intelligence failure can be defined as] where there was information that reasonably could have been collected but wasnt, or that was collected but was misanalyzed, misused, or ignored Mia Bloom, Dying to Kill the allure of suicide terror, Columbia UP, New York, 2005 p.182
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Wars have typically been fought against proper nouns (Germany, say) for the good reason that proper nouns can surrender and promise not to do it again. Wars against common nouns (poverty, crime, drugs) have been less successful. Such opponents never give up. Grenville Byford,The Wrong War, Foreign Affairs July/August 2002 An urban myth. reaction of Iraqi politician Ahmad Chalabi to charges that he gave false pre-war intelligence to the US There may have been a failure of intelligence but it was not a failure of the intelligence services. Charles Clarke, Home Secretary in the Blair government, defending the failure to predict the July 7 2005 London bombings, The Evening Standard, 8 July 2005 Your government failed you. Those entrusted with protecting you failed you. And I failed you. Richard A. Clarke, former counter-terrorism chief during Clinton and George W. Bush presidencies in apology to the families of 9/11 victims in testimony to National Inquiry into September 11 events, March 2004 Espionage and show business have in common that tradition that everyone abandons you when you are in trouble. Len Deighton, Close-Up Thin, ambiguous and incomplete. Phillip Flood, Ibid, on intelligence regarding Iraqs possession of WMD Someone once said that our past failures are like the rays of the setting sun behind us. If we stare into them, they will blind us. But if we turn around and face the future, those past failures will light our path forward. Congresswoman Jane Harman, Ranking Member, House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, American Enterprise Institute press release, 5 March 2004 Intelligence can never understand foreign states completely and forecast all their actions. But there is a puzzling record of consistent failure to provide warning of surprise attack. Limitations of intelligence collection are partial explanations in some cases, as is insufficient weight given to collectors interpretations of their material.
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But some evidence has usually been available pointing to an increased likelihood of attack or preparations for it. All-source analysis has failed to draw the correct conclusion. Michael Herman, Intelligence Power in Peace and War, 1996 We dont have a major capability in getting raw intelligence from that part of the world ]Middle East]. If there is a weakness, if history shows a weakness, the chances are it was in the raw intelligence rather than the assessments that were made on it. Robert Hill, Minister for Defence, in Claws are out for senior spy agency. The Australian, 1 March, 2004, p.1 Intelligence agencies are going through a rough time all around the world, and Australian intelligence agencies are no exception. its easy when there are terrorist attacks for people to say they should have done this, they should have done that. John Howard, Canberra Times, 15 April 2004 In the fullness of time, it might be demonstrated that the advice was inaccurate. John Howard on the alleged possession of WMD by Iraq, 3 February 2004 A major mistake leads to surprise and thus an intelligence failure; the main function of an intelligence service, therefore, is to shield those it serves against surprise. W. Laquer, A World of Secrets, Basic Books, New York, 1985, p.255 We are judged by what we do not know and did not prevent. Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, Director General of the British Security Service in The International Terrorist Threat and the Dilemmas in Countering It, speech at the Ridderzaal, Binnenhof, The Hague, Netherlands, 1 September, 2005 Brownie, youre doing a heck of a job. President George W. Bush, praising Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Head, Michael Brown in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, TIME, 2 September 2005 Im turning in my resignation today. Michael Brown, after sustained bi-partisan criticism of his failure to heed warnings of the threat of Hurricane Katrina, and his perceived incompetent response to the resultant destruction in New Orleans, TIME, 12 September 2005
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The greatest derangement of the mind is to believe in something because one wishes it to be so. Louis Pasteur When a nation suffers such setbacks as a result of being unprepared, a search for scapegoats frequently takes place; the blame is often laid at the door of the intelligence community. Avi Shlaim, Failures in National Intelligence Estimates: The Case of the Yom Kippur War, p.349 I think most people underestimated how tough these bastards are. Paul Wolfowitz, on the Saddam loyalist insurgents, The Atlantic Monthly, July/August 2005. p 113 Its a draw. Yes, the Government exaggerated the evidence provided by its intelligence agencies about Iraqs WMD; but no, it was not as bad as the British or United States governments. Yes, our intelligence assessments relied heavily on US and British raw intelligence; but no, they were not skewed by political pressure. Yes, our intelligence analysts did miss the moribund state of Iraqs WMD programs, but no, there were not as far from the mark as their US or British counterparts. Hugh White, Iraq intelligence: no sexing up, but some exaggeration, Sydney Morning Herald, 2 March, 2004, p.11
Intelligence Reform
. it is easier to waste time on bureaucratic reorganisation than it is to accomplish anything concrete. Richard A. Clarke, Against All Enemies Inside Americas War on Terror, Free Press, New York 2004. p. 90 Transforming intelligencereveals the need for a next-generation intelligence capability that graduates from the stove-pipes, centralization, hierarchies, and methods and mentalities of the Cold War to the seamlessly collaborative, distributed, more open possibilities of the Information Age. David J Rothkopf , Ibid, 29 July 2002
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The road to real intelligence reform is littered with the carcasses of forgotten studies and ignored reports. Richard C. Shelby, Vice Chairman, US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 10 December 2002
Australia
Australian intelligence agencies are performing well overall and represent a potent capability for governmentBut Australias intelligence community can do better, and must give optimum performance to meet the demands of the new security environment. Phillip Flood,Report of the Inquiry into Australian Intelligence Agencies, in Tom Allard and Cynthia Banham, Spies report : must do better, The Sydney Morning Herald, 23 July 2004
Europe
When in doubt, adopt a czar. comment on EU Interior Ministers agreement in March 2004 to create a coordinator to manage counterterrorism activities across the EU, TIME, 29 March 2004. p.29 The birth of Euro-intelligence would be the death of intelligencesharing will always be, and is best handled, on a bilateral basis. French security official, TIME, 29 March 2004. p.28 Europe woke up and then hit the snooze button. Friedbert Pfluger, Foreign Affairs spokesman for Germanys Christian Democrat Party, TIME, 29 March 2004, p.27, on European security responses to the Madrid Bombing [European law enforcement and intelligence agencies] continue to operate in an atmosphere of mistrust. A terrorist can be halfway across Europe before the European police have their boots on. It comes down to sharing sovereignty. Graham Watson, head of the European Parliaments Liberal Democrat Party, TIME, 29 March 2004, p.28
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Southeast Asia
We had regional posts before, but only 50 per cent of the provinces are covered due to financial and human resource difficulties. We are now proposing an increase in budgets and recruitments to fill in the posts in regions that are still uncovered. Muchyar Yara, BIN spokesman, Straits Times, 29 November 2002 There should be a multilateral effort where countries should exchange intelligence information if there is a need for, maybe military assistance, not in the form of manpower but in the form of technology, equipment. Roilo Golez National Security Adviser, Philippines Govt. 1 December 2002
United States
We are now learning that before September 11, the suspicions and insights of some of our frontline agents did not get enough attention. President George W Bush, Reuters, 6 June 2002 A lot of rice bowls are going to be broken. Vince Cannistraro, a former high-ranking CIA officials, on the intelligence reform process, in The Houston Chronicle, 5 June 2004 Usually, however, the FBI acted like Lake-Reno was a resort in Nevada. Richard A. Clarke, Ibid, p. 92, referring to implementation of the 1994 MOU between Tony Lake and Janet Reno on information sharing between the National Security Council and the FBI The need for change was apparent even before September 11. It has become more urgent since then. Robert Mueller, Director, FBI, AAP 6 June 2002 An honest and comprehensive examination of the pre-September 11 FBI reflects an agency that must evolve and that must change if our mission, our priorities, our structures, our technologies, our workforce are to evolve to the one central paramount premise of preventing the next attack. Robert Mueller, 6 June 2002
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Were fixing it with quantity and quality. Were changing methods, Were changing systems. Were changing it from the beginning to the end, from the recruitment the types of people we are trying to attract to the way we bring them in, to the experience we give them in training, to the ways we get them on station or in places where they are of use to us. We are focussed very much on finding ways to get our eyes and ears out and about on a global basis. And we are doing it in ways that you cant even imagine and Im not even going to slightly discuss. Porter Goss, Director, CIA, on reform of CIA human intelligence, TIME 27 June 2005 p.47 They [the FBI] still dont know where the terrorists are, how many are here, what their intentions are, what kind of support network they have. They cant give me an answer because they dont have one. They have so little to show for their work and we have so little time to take action now. No evidence Ive seen shows they have a sense of urgency or a thoughtful plan or very much information to predicate a plan on. There will be hell to pay if we dont use the next 60 days [before a war with Iraq might begin] to do everything in our power to dismantle their capability. Senator Bob Graham, Democrat, Florida, Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Intelligence, N. 413, 16 December 2002, p.13 In the parlance of reality TV: This is a case where a single botox injection wont help. Our intelligence community needs an extreme makeover. Congresswoman Jane Harman, Ranking Member, House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, American Enterprise Institute press release, 5 March 2004 The White House is unwilling to fix the problems in an election year, and so it has kicked the can down the road until March 2005, when a new WMD Commission our sixth such effort to review the Iraq problems makes its recommendations. That will not make us safer. That is like the auto-mechanic who says, Im sorry I cant fix your brakes this week, but dont worry because I made your horn louder. Congresswoman Jane Harman Our biggest problem is we have people we think are terrorists. They are supporters of al Qaedathey may have sworn jihad, they may be here in the US legitimately and they have committed no crimeAnd what do we do for the next five years? Do we surveil them? Some action has to be taken. Robert Mueller, 6 June 2002
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The wall is down. Robert Meuller, referring to the pre 9/11 arbitrary differentiation between intelligence and law enforcement, 2003 Reinventing Americas intelligence community is, to be sure, a complex task. It is complex because the community itself is so complex, because its missions are complex, and because that which works well is woven so intricately with that which does not. David J Rothkopf, Ibid Rumsfeld was always suspicious of intelligence. His experience was that it generally understated problems, that bad things too often went undetected for years. Bob Woodward, Plan of Attack, p.174
Department of Homeland Security

Its all part of going from a peacetime society to a society mobilising for war. Ari Fleischer, White House spokesman on the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security, Reuters, 6 June 2002 It shows real leadership to be willing to change direction, and that is what the president has done for the security of all Americans. Senator Joe Lieberman, Reuters, 6 June 2002 I only say that it is about time, and I hope that it is not too late. Senator Tom Daschle, South Dakota Democrat, on the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security, Reuters, 6 June 2002 I am deeply concerned about how this move will affect FEMAs responsibilities in areas unrelated to terrorism. Senator James M Jeffords (I-Vt), Chair, Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, on FEMAs incorporation into the Department of Homeland Security, Washington Post, 11 July 2002
Director of National Intelligence

John will make sure that those whose duty it is to defend America have the information we need to make the right decisions...John understands Americas global intelligence needs because he spent the better part of his life in our foreign service. President George W. Bush, Reuters, 17 February 2005
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Both. John Negroponte on whether he should be congratulated or offered condolences on being named the USs first Director of National Intelligence, TIME, 28 February 2005, p.26 He is a sophisticated rogueNegropontes stint in Honduras was filled with chicanery and deception. Larry Burns, Council on Hemispheric Affairs think tank, Washington, on John Negroponte, the new Director of National Intelligence, Reuters, 17 February 2005 I would almost equate it to getting rid of a 60-lb. back sack, climbing up a big, steep trail. Porter Goss, CIA Director, on ceding his regular Presidential briefing role to the new Director of National Intelligence, TIME 27 June, 2005, p 47
Counter-Terrorism
We were not attacked on September 11th by a noun, terrorism. Madeleine Albright, to the House-Senate Joint Inquiry Report on 9/11 We have had some very important successes getting individual terrorists. But I think the broader story is really quite awful. We have done a lot to fuel the fires, and we have done a lot to encourage people to hate us. Daniel Benjamin, US Director for Counterterrorism, US National Security Council 1994-1999, Reuters, 1 November 2005 Human intelligence is key because the essence of the terrorist threat is the capacity to conspire. The best way to intercept attacks is to penetrate the organizations, learn their plans, and identify perpetrators so that they can be taken out of action. Richard K. Betts, Fixing Intelligence, Foreign Affairs, Jan-Feb 2002, p.46 if you come to our country from abroad, dont meddle in extremism. If you meddle in it or engage in it, then youre going to go back out again.The rules of the game have changed. Prime Minister Tony Blair, in announcing new counter-terrorism regulations following the London bombing and attempted bombings in July 2005, The Guardian, 8 August 2005
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Resist pigeonholing the enemy. Combating Islamic terrorism requires a revolution in methodology. You cant create models to track this threat, which is what Westerners, especially Americans, always try to do. You have to stay agile mentally and not let yourself be a prisoner of precedents. Islamic terrorism is like the AIDS virus: it constantly mutates. You grab it one day, but then it changes its shape and ends up eluding you. Jean-Louis Bruguiere, Wall Street Journal, October 18 2001 Every day I review a document called the threat assessment. It summarises what our intelligence services and key law enforcement agencies have picked up about terrorist activity. Sometimes the information is very general vague talk, bragging about future attacks. Sometimes the information is more specific, as in a recent case when an Al Qaeda detainee said attacks were planned against financial institutions. When credible intelligence warrants, appropriate law enforcement and local officials are alerted. These warnings are, unfortunately, a new reality in American life and we have recently seen an increase in the volume of general threats. Americans should continue to do what youre doing. Go about your lives, but pay attention to your surroundings. Add your eyes and ears to the protection of our homeland. In protecting our country, we depend on the skill of our people: the troops we send to battle, intelligence operatives who risk their lives for bits of information, law enforcement officers who sift for clues and search for suspects. President George W Bush, Reuters, 6 June 2002 Were just going to have to enforce the doctrine, either youre with us or against us. You join the coalition of freedom, or youre on the other side of the fence. President George W Bush, Reuters, 13 June 2002 One fact dominates all homeland security threat assessments: terrorists are strategic actors. Blueprint for the Establishment of the Department of Homeland Security, unveiled by President Bush, Washington Post, 16 July, 2002, p.A01 When 9/11 happened, we were tackled offa high building by terrorists and we were in free fall with them. We cant climb back up. General (Retd) Peter Cosgrove, former Chief of the Australian Defence Force on responding to terrorism, AAP 8 August 2005 Counterrorism relies heavily on intelligence. Although policymakers can access a wide array of public information on most issues, 70 to 80 percent of their information on terrorist activities comes from clandestine intelligence sources. Loch K. Johnson, Smart Intelligence
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We can believe, correctly, that a terrorist atrocity is being planned but those arrested by the police have to be released as the plan is too embryonic, too vague to lead to charges and possibly convictions. Furthermore the intelligence may be highly sensitive and its exposure would be very damaging as revealing either the source or our capability. Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, Director General of the British Security Service in The International Terrorist Threat and the Dilemmas in Countering It, speech at the Ridderzaal, Binnenhof, The Hague, Netherlands, 1 September 2005 The Internet enables every jihadi to feel part of a larger whole. It enables every angry Muslim to give vent to his or her anger in myriad ways. It enables every Muslim to become a participant in the jihad in his or her own way, with or without a leader. It has strengthened Islamic solidarity. Cyber space has become the spawning ground of jihadi warriors. B. Raman, Additional Secretary (retd.), Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India; Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai; Distinguished Fellow, International Terrorism Watch Programme, November 2005 We can never legislate an end to terrorism. However, we must remain resolute in our commitment to confront this criminal behaviour in every way diplomatically, economically, legally, and, when necessary, militarily. First-rate intelligence remains the key element in each of these areas. We will continue to improve our ability to predict, prevent, and respond to threats of terrorism with an expanded intelligencegathering capability. President Ronald Reagan, 1986 The lessons are clear: - Distinguish between the terrorism of the UBL kind and resistance born of state repression or occupation; - Be wary of those who exploit public fears for political gain at home and geopolitical agendas abroad; - Dont spread collective guilt. Focus instead on potential troublemakers and deal with them within the rule of law; - The greater the credibility of law-enforcement agencies, the higher the likelihood of cooperation and hence success. It is by ignoring such guidelines since 9/11 that we have ended up with more, not less, terrorism. Toronto Star, 4 April 2004
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Absolutely. To think otherwise would be folly. Weve made some adjustments, but the cultures have not changed between all the intelligence agenciesI dont believe theyre sharing information. Theres no fusion, central place yet to do it. Richard Shelby, Republican, on being asked whether the country could still be blind-sided, AAP, 23 September 2002
Iraq
unfortunately the stiff upper British lip became hard-headed Abu Izzadeen, British-born Muslim, on the UKs refusal to end its military commitment to Iraq, London Sky News, 8 August 2005
The region
I dont think that because of the threat of terrorism, we should do away with sovereignty or the rights of states, or act outside the rule of law. Syed Hamid Albar, Malaysian Foreign Minister, AAP, 2 December 2002 We dont have an ID system. Terrorism is not even a crime in this country, so it is really very difficult. Ricardo Blancaflor, Undersecretary, Philippines government, Straits Times, 7 November 2005 Homeland security must be the shared responsibility of every Singaporean. Wong Kan Seng, Home Affairs Minister, Straits Times, 18 May 2002 Terrorism, like other asymmetric threats, is not new. But globalization and technology have exacerbated the problem of terrorism and increased the potential for mass destruction. Todays terrorists have more available means to inflict extensive damage than at any time in historyGood intelligence is paramount when operating in an environment where the adversary remains in the shadows and wars are campaigns with no clearly defined boundaries. Intelligence is about determining intentions and motives Dr Tony Tan, Singaporean Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence, 2002
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Threats Against Australia

It will be one of the safest games ever because of the work were putting in. Victorian Premier Steve Bracks, on the Commonwealth Games to be held in Melbourne in March 2006,AAP, 8 November 2005 Attacks could occur at any time, anywhere in Indonesia and could be directed at any locations known to be frequented by foreigners. Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Travel Advice to Australians considering travel to Indonesia, www.dfat.gov.au, November 2005 We hope we run a reasonably tight ship but I guess you cant make it unsinkable. Foreign Minister Alexander Downer about the possibility of a terrorist attack on Australia, AFP 6 September 2005 Yesterday, London and Madrid. Tomorrow, Los Angeles and Melbourne, God willing. al Qaeda operative Adam Gadahn of Orange County, California, in an apparent al Qaeda communique broadcast on ABC [US] news, ABC News Internet Ventures, 11 September 2005 One of the problems we face with terrorism is that we are dealing not only with evil and hostility to our way of life but we are also dealing with total irrationality. John Howard, AAP, 15 November 2005 There have been people in our community for some time who would want to do harm, who were pleased about the terrorist attacks in Bali and in London, and pleased about some of the terrorist attacks elsewhere in the world. They have been within our community now for some time not a lot and a tiny minority. The authorities have a greater understanding of what people are about now than what they did six months ago. John Howard, AAP 4 November 2005 This country has never been immune from a possible terrorist attack that remains the situation today and it will be the situation tomorrow. John Howard, AAP 8 November 2005
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While it may be two decades since there has been an attack on Australian soil the security threat that Australia faces today is nevertheless real and it is not abating. Paul OSullivan, Director General, ASIO, AAP, 31 October 2005 All they [anti-terrorism laws] do, typically, is provide a short-term security. Terrorists then adapt to the new legislation and the new laws and then we enter the cycle again. David Wright-Neville, Co-convenor of the global terrorism research project, Monash University, and former analysts, ONA, AAP, 3 November 2005
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Volume 2, Number 1 2005 ISSN 1039-1525

Australian Institute of Professional Intelligence Officers Incorporated, 1991

The Australian Institute of Professional Intelligence Officers Inc. (AIPIO)

AIPIO Board of Management and Editorial Panel

Terry-Anne O'Neill Gavin Bell

The Role of Intelligence

Intelligence and Policymakers

The Nature of Intelligence

The Process of Intelligence

Skills and Qualities in Intelligence

The Culture of Intelligence

Accountability and Intelligence

Department of Homeland Security

Director of National Intelligence

Threats Against Australia

Words On Intelligence ~ Suggested Additions Form ~

AIPIO PO Box 1007 Civic Square ACT 2608 Australia Or to journal@aipio.asn.au

Regalia Order form

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