After a decade, on 22nd June 2011, the current US President Barack Obama has

announced the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.

A lot of speculation is being done about the various motives and outcomes of the withdrawal.
And perhaps all this chaos, is not good news for India.
To start with, David Ignatius , the famous American journalist states, The quick departure
is a guarantee of failure. It risks repeating the mistake the United States made in the 1980s
when, after pumping money and guns into Afghanistan to defeat the Soviet Union, America
walked away creating a power vacuum that was exploited by warlords and their
regional patrons.
This time, the power vacuum is being created for India. She would soon be exposed to a
vulnerable spot by a Pakistan dominated neighbourhood and unfettered militancy. The
precipitous withdrawal of the international forces rewinds the time back to Afghanistan of 1990s.
It might turn worse this time

Withdrawal of US troops in Afghanistan: A

bird of ill Omen for India
23 Jun

After a decade, on 22nd June 2011, the current US President Barack Obama has
announced the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.
A lot of speculation is being done about the various motives and outcomes of the withdrawal.
And perhaps all this chaos, is not good news for India.
To start with, David Ignatius , the famous American journalist states, The quick departure
is a guarantee of failure. It risks repeating the mistake the United States made in the 1980s
when, after pumping money and guns into Afghanistan to defeat the Soviet Union, America
walked away creating a power vacuum that was exploited by warlords and their
regional patrons.
This time, the power vacuum is being created for India. She would soon be exposed to a
vulnerable spot by a Pakistan dominated neighbourhood and unfettered militancy.
The precipitous withdrawal of the international forces rewinds the time back to Afghanistan of
1990s. It might turn worse this time. Especially when Al-Qaeda is all set to establish its existence

after the death of Osama bin Laden and is engrossed in hunting for havens for executing
jeopardising explosions.
Though, the deployment did not ensure that the instability in South Asia would be dealt with. But
yes, the withdrawal certainly sounds like a modus operandi.
Harsh V Pant of Defence Studies Department from Kings College, London, states New
Delhi has been contemplating the impact of US withdrawal from Afghanistan. If the US left
lock, stocks and barrel, India would be left to pick the pieces.
In an attempt to mend ties with the post America Afghanistan, Indian PM Mr. Manmohan Singh
also pledged $500m in aid to Afghanistan, which comes on top of $1.5bn already promised to
the war-torn country. Though, India is still the biggest regional donor to Afghanistan, a position
which is highly appreciated by the Western superpowers, its high time when Mr. Singh should
realise that aids and funding might not be the best way to combat extremism and terrorism.
Indian troops in Afghanistan
Interestingly, there are around 1000 Indian paramilitary soldiers in Afghanistan. These forces
belong to Border Roads Organisation and Indo-Tibetan Border Police. They play a vital
role in safeguarding the large Indian consulates in Afghanistan. In fact, in 2010 itself, Home
Minister P. Chidambaram had announced India to send more troops to Afghanistan.
Retired Indian Major General Ashok K. Mehta states in his Wall Street Journal Pakistanis
believe that Indians and Afghans, who share excellent relations, have a mutual interest
against them and see Indias presence in Afghanistan as a threat.
2006 onwards Pakistan has been frequently asking US to restrain the Indian presence in
Afghanistan. So, the pull out of troops might prove to be an easy opportunity to finally cash upon
the chance.
Unfortunately, the safety of Indian troops in Afghanistan is never talked about.
Indias future
No doubt, there is nothing heroic in stuffing pockets of enemies and reaching out for a global
diplomatic stand. At the same time, there is no point in waiting for another attack on the Indian
embassy in Kabul.
But perhaps, its would be wiser to realise who the real enemy is? Is it Taliban in Afghanistan or
Pakistan? The answers wont come in a day or two. Till then, India should wait and watch.

India fears quick US withdrawal from

Afghanistan after bin Laden's death

Reuters
May 5, 2011
Until now there has been little political risk for Mr Singh. His tentative moves to Islamabad
have not sparked outrage from voters for whom billion-dollar corruption scandals and
persistently high inflation are far bigger concerns.
So India has little to gain in using bin Laden's death to press Pakistan harder. India has achieved
little with hawkish stances and there is recognition that it only risks strengthening Pakistan's
hardliners.
Hasan Askari Rizvi, a Pakistani political analyst, said: "India is not going to push it hard because
the whole process of normalisation will run into trouble, and Pakistan doesn't want that and the
Indian government doesn't want that."
In the aftermath of the Mumbai attacks, US officials in 2008 called for India to tone down its
rhetoric, a cable obtained by WikiLeaks said. It is a policy that seems to have sunk in with Mr
Singh and with Shivshankar Menon, the national security adviser, a man seen as a major
architect of India's Pakistan policy.

India fears quick US withdrawal from

Afghanistan after bin Laden's death
Reuters
May 5, 2011

NEW DELHI // India may nervously wonder if Osama bin Laden's death will hasten a
triumphalist US withdrawal from Afghanistan and leave New Delhi exposed to an unfriendly,
Pakistan-dominated neighbourhood and unfettered militancy in its backyard.
For India, bin Laden's death deep in Pakistan confirmed what it had long suspected: that a socalled Western ally was turning a blind eye to militant networks on its soil, a fear reinforced by
the 2008 Pakistani militant attacks on Mumbai.
But even more worrying for New Delhi would be any sign that the US president, Barack Obama,
will use the death to speed up the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, leaving a vacuum
that its nuclear-armed foe Pakistan and the Taliban may only be to happy to fill.
A senior Indian government source, who declined to be named, said in reference to the situation
post-bin Laden: "The clear issue is the need to focus on the situation in Afghanistan.
"No one wants a precipitous withdrawal of international forces in Afghanistan. There is still
much work to be done."
Both India and Pakistan, which have gone to war three times since 1947, have sought for decades
to secure leverage in Afghanistan, a Central Asian geopolitical crossroads. That desire has
gained urgency after Mr Obama's tentative timeline to start to withdraw military forces from
July.
Siddharth Varadarajan, an associate editor at The Hindu newspaper, said: "India's eyes will be
more on the US than Pakistan. India will be looking at the end game".
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11111111111111120203211111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111
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12411111111111111434111112411111111111123411111111111111124111111111111111111
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11111111112211111111111225111111111111114211111111111120104211111111111111111
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34111111311111112211233222325111111431111131435114234111111113124111111415423
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11123133333111221111111111341111431122444444442544111531111122222411111111111
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24111111111111111153111111211545121111112211111111143111111111112211111111351
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51111143311201012111111113511421122234111111114311111341111221111241111431111
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52111113412111111111122111122112311111111134142533423111124111251111441111111
11114411111111111112411111114332111111111111122111423321114311111534434111111

11132112010121111111241123114212211111111113411111321153411112411112211111114
34111111111244224511111531142111341111111111111114344111111431111111111111211
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11341111111111112111434113411111111143511111111111111113120101211322311114344
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21111111111152324411114211111222324511115422222411114311112344321111111355323
41111111111111112323111115232111114211524111114511111144111112111111111111132
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21111111111435111111233211111134221111434111141134111221122111111113211142111
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25111134311111311111522333333325111542241111114445111111341111111111111111111
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41111111111111114205012112411111321111112321111111113322511111242411145111111
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44111111111122111111112211111112414111211111112511111122111112111111111153552
41111111111112010121142111113211111114211111111133341111154531111211111111111
11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111

11111111111111112211321111111111221111111111111221111111111143111123341112411
11111111221111111122111111124111112111111121111114241111421111111111124142224
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11111111523111111111
The US administration, after eliminating its top target in the region, has publicly said it is
committed to Afghanistan. But Washington politicians and observers say there is little doubt
pressure will fall on Mr Obama for a withdrawal of troops as he battles a budget deficit and an
upcoming election campaign.
The Indian prime minister, Manmohan Singh, has spent political credit on dialogue with
Islamabad, seeing any peace deal as the crowning achievement of his premiership, despite a
trend of having his fingers burned by Pakistan.
His olive branch in 2006 was dashed by the Mumbai carnage, an attempt to kick-start talks in
Egypt in 2009 was pilloried by the Hindu nationalist opposition at home, and the news of bin
Laden's Pakistan sanctuary came only weeks after Mr Singh's "cricket diplomacy" initiative.
That rapprochement will continue. While Indian newspapers revelled in a chorus of Pakistani
condemnation, a carefully worded statement from the prime minister appeared to keep India on
course for dialogue despite the lack of trust.
"India works on the assumption Pakistan will continue to deceive. The government will continue
to engage with the full knowledge Pakistan is colluding with the bad guys," Mr Varadarajan said.
New Delhi fears a return to the 1990s in Afghanistan, when both a civil war and Taliban control
fostered militant groups in the region and fuelled attacks on India.
Harsh V Pant of the Defence Studies Department, King's College London, said: "New Delhi has

been contemplating the impact of a US withdrawal from Afghanistan for while. If the US left
lock, stock and barrel, India would be left to pick up the pieces."
India is Afghanistan's biggest regional aid donor and its $1.3 billion (Dh4.77bn) of projects, from
building a parliament to a highway to Iran, shows what Indian officials like to call their "soft
power" to win hearts and minds in Afghanistan.
Washington has been happy to see that aid. But Pakistan has publicly derided India's attempt to
secure influence in what Pakistan sees as its own backyard.
India has sometimes appeared frustrated at Washington for not pressuring Pakistan, a US ally, to
do more to control terrorist groups within its borders, pointing to India's own susceptibility to
attacks from militants based in Pakistan.
But that has not stopped India from reaching out, most recently when Mr Singh invited his
counterpart, Yusuf Raza Gilani, to watch a World Cup cricket match between the rival countries
in March, described by India's foreign secretary as "re-engagement" talks.

Impact on Pakistan: withdrawal of US forces

from Afghanistan
by Yasmeen Ali
Obama announced withdrawal of 30,000 forces from Afghanistan. With the withdrawal of
30,000 troops, roughly 68,000 troops will still remain in Afghanistan. What impact this will
or will not have on Afghanistan, is another debate altogether. This withdrawal is proposed
in three steps,5000 troops in first instance, another 5000 in the second and 10000 in the
third go. What is obvious, is, with the US elections round the corner, it is a cotton candy
being held out to the people of America, having come into power in the flush of promise to
bring the boys home. A promise that Obama failed to fulfill. Further, the exorbitant
costs of foreign wars at the expense of the Americans has become difficult to justify. A lot
of ink has been wasted on cotton candy, I am sure more will!
The point of concern is, the two forked strategy being followed in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Whereas, talks are underway between US and Taliban to work out a power sharing relationship
in Afghanistan, in Pakistan, the reverse strategy is in place. I mean, is it ok to support
prostitution in one area and oppose it at another? Weird psychology, no?
Pakistan launched offensives against the militants in Bajaur, and in Swat. Millions remain
displaced to this date. Now, there are new pressures to launch an offensive in North Waziristan.
The drone policy, killing thousands of Pakistanis , mostly women ,children, and defenseless
people. Collateral damage, we are told!

There are some hard questions the establishment in Pakistan must face:
1Are the interests of USA in complete line with those of Pakistan? If different on certain
tangents, what cost to Pakistan to follow through?
A friend, a retired Senior Office from the Air Force , argued Pakistan Army & ISI should have
balanced both. He asks the Army and wrote to me, When you knew the Americans were double
playing on you from day one by aiding and abetting criminals from Baluchistan and giving them
safe haven in Afghanistan ,why did you not do the same to Americans?.
This anger and feeling of being cheated, is reflective of the general people of Pakistan.
2-

Is Pakistan been compensated enough to compromise her dignity & sovereignty?

Hussain Haqqani, in a recent meeting to allay American misunderstandings on Pakistan, pointed

out ,in a diplomatic tone, the peanuts being fed to the US monkey. US claim to have given 18-20
$ billion in assistance.
These funds, strictly speaking, are not assistance. These cover the cost of fuel, ordnance, etc.
used by Pakistan in counter-terrorism operations. Of the remaining $6-8 billion, nearly half the
assistance was military assistance some of it to the previous government. This leaves about $3
billion which the present government has ostensibly received. Even here the monies appropriated
under the Kerry Lugar Berman legislation in FY 2010 have not been fully disbursed.(Dawn
News 17th June 2011).
America is following a policy of pressurizing Pakistan from every possible end. Though,
Pakistans inefficiency on some fronts does not help things, it is a fact that over the past months,
the war on terror has shifted to Pakistan.
What impact will this soft withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan will have on Pakistan? The
answer is: Nothing.
If anything, it may come more sharply in focus and be placed under greater pressure than before
on Pakistan.
Pakistan must stand on her feet and fight for her interests. She must stop being apologetic and
where needed, clean up her backyard.
A friend wrote, Our elders watered the tree of Independence by their blood so that our
generation live with peace and honorhow much more blood
is to be let before we become an honorable people?
I do not have the answer.
Do our leaders?

Indian interests in Afghanistan

D Ramana

The dramatic collapse of Taliban resistance in Afghanistan and the fall of Kabul to the
Northern Alliance show how fragile the Taliban power base was. Here was an outfit that
rolled up all opposing it in Afghanistan, in a short period between 1994-1997, to claim Kabul
in the aftermath of the mujahadeen takeover. It seemed poised to export its brand of
extremist fundamentalism throughout the Muslim world, and radicalize society and body
politic like never before. It brought back a mediaeval outlook to life and society back to
Afghanistan not seen since the early part of the last millennium. The Taliban over-reached
itself by participating in the attack on the World Trade Center in the United States. It
underestimated the resolve and the strength of the United States and the states supporting
the Northern Alliance, which have suffered less spectacularly from its depredations. While
the US bombing campaign no doubt weakened it, it was the ground offensive by the
Northern Alliance that started the rout.
During the 1970s, Afghanistan was set on a course of political and social modernization that
was ultimately undermined by fundamentalist elements with support from Pakistan.
Everything about the Pakistani intervention since 1992 has been retrograde. Now that peace
finally has a chance it is encouraging to see the Northern Alliance and other factions speak
of need for the establishment of a representative government encompassing all elements of
in Afghan society. As moves are afoot to establish constitutional order in Afghanistan, it is
useful to examine India's interests in Afghanistan. Indian interests in Afghanistan can be
divided into security, political, economic and miscellaneous.
The security interests can be further divided into internal and external. The worsening
internal security situation in Jammu and Kashmir has coincided with the rise of the Taliban.
The existence of a client regime in Afghanistan had allowed Pakistan to move ISI run
terrorist into Afghanistan, outside the range of Indian security forces. Pakistani terrorists
were further reinforced by foreign elements that have taken part in the war against the
Soviets. Additionally, the Taliban had provided aid and shelter to criminals like the hijackers
of the Indian Airlines plane IC 814. Hence the Taliban were closely involved in insurgencies
and terrorism directed against the Indian state and its people. Not surprisingly, the closure
of terrorist camps across Afghanistan is top priority for India. Furthermore, the narcotics
trade originating in Afghanistan is used to fund the ISI's covert operations against India and
the cutting-off this source is a key Indian objective. This also reduces the drug supplies to
the underworld and has ripple effects in the Indian society. The external security is
impacted in an indirect manner. Pakistan was hoping to create 'strategic depth' in Taliban
controlled Afghanistan. This was meant to stage their reserves in Afghanistan out of reach
of Indian armed forces. In addition it was able to divert troops towards the Indian border
taking advantage of a friendly regime in the West. The presence of an assertive regime,
which puts Afghan interests first, would relieve the pressure on Indian borders. It would
reduce the room for strategic maneuver available to Pakistani forces.
In addition to the security interests there are political interests. Afghanistan is a multiethnic state. It has Sunni Pashtuns in the south and Tajiks, Uzbeks in the North, and Shia
Hazaras in the centre. A composite ethnic state can exist only with representative
government. If Afghanistan succeeds it will be a model for the Islamic world and should be
supported as a global effort. Afghanistan is the gateway to Central Asia. A radical regime in
Afghanistan could export its brand of beliefs and destabilize Central Asia and the newly
emergent republics of the post Soviet era. This region is the home of the last great energy
finds in the world and destabilization here would effect energy prices everywhere and
impact economic growth needed for India to take its rightful place. The British drew the
Durand Line, between present-day Pakistan and Afghanistan and it was in effect till the last
decade when the treaty lapsed. It has not been renegotiated and could be a contentious
cause between the two states. At a minimum this issue will preclude their coming together

for a common cause against India.

Indias economic interests are no less significant. After the destruction wrought by the
Soviet takeover, the civil war for control between Taliban and the Northern Alliance and the
US bombing campaign to dislodge the Taliban and Osama Bin Laden, reconstruction is
major priority. India can help in this reconstruction and rebuild the infrastructure. Entire
segments of the economy have to be rebuilt - communications, transport, education, health
care and civil administration and military training. Even if the pipeline does not come
through Afghanistan, the presence of a moderate regime in Afghanistan will enhance the
flow of oil, which is essential for economic stability. Other interests include cultural and
historic ties with the people of Afghanistan, which go back long in time. There is no need to
wax romantic about these but they are not insignificant - Tandoori cuisine, Kabuliwala
moneylenders immortalized in story by Tagore and Balraj Sahani in film. It is heartening
that the songs that the Afghans sang after the liberation of Kabul are those from Bollywood
Indias film industry.
Successive Indian governments have been quite aware of these interests and sought to
advance them in spite of the limited scope for such moves. The main thrust was to support
the central regime in order to ensure that the country does not split along factional lines.
This support was misunderstood by the mujahadeen mistook this to be an endorsement of
the Soviet takeover and it kept India at a distance after the Soviet withdrawal. Fortunately
India has been more engaged and sensitive to the needs of the Afghan people. Its
unwavering support of the countrys legitimate government since 1992 has gone a long way
in persuading the Northern Alliance of its sincerity.