JS_AS_BS_NK 1 Julie Serwy, Andy Schmitz, Betsy Sudlow, Nick Koberstein Professor Poetzel CI 402 May 12, 2011

Unit Plan: Rationale This unit is about Probability, planned with the Discovering Advanced Algebra text as a resource for readings, homework, and locations for online research. The unit has been planned with the demographics of our classs students in mind. We are planning to reach certain goals in this unit and use various methods of differentiated instructed according to our assumed and specific prior knowledge. The goals of this unit are to teach the material necessary to meet standards and for testing (district, state, and national), to make mathematics interesting, and to give each student an equitable chance to learn the material. The unit encompasses topics which are included within our districts curriculum that also appear on standardized tests. We aim to cover each of the sections in this chapter so that the students have a working knowledge of probability to apply to real life situations and use in further academics. Since probability is applicable to the real world in simple ways, this unit encompasses many hands-on activities as well as technological uses in order to prepare our students for the technological demands of our society. The differentiated instruction planned into this unit, which challenges some students and provides the extra tailored help for others, will give our students equitable learning experiences. The prior knowledge for this unit includes basic algebra skills and basic calculator knowledge. The students are not expected to know anything about probabilistic situations,

JS_AS_BS_NK 2 but the students are expected to know how to solve equations for a specific variable and also to make variable substitutions in order to make mathematical problems appear easier to tackle. The students are also expected to know how to use a four-function calculator or to use similar functions on a graphing calculator. The students need not know how to use the probability functions on the graphing calculator, as they will be taught how to use them in class and in the technology labs placed throughout the unit.

JS_AS_BS_NK 3 Unit Calendar Date 5/5/2008 Brief Description of Lesson Technology, Special Activities, Manipulatives, Problem-based Instructional Strategies? Unit hook, introduce probability. Students roll dice, draw from decks of cards, and use a spinner to determine various probabilities. They record results in lists and tables while reviewing basic probability concepts. The class forms a working definition of probability and then defines an event. Students learn how to calculate basic probabilities. Technology including calculators and statistical analysis computer software will be used to explore probability. Students count outcomes using tree diagrams and implement tree diagrams to use the multiplication rule. Students take a quiz over material covered in sections 12.1 and 12.2. The class is focused on mutually exclusive events, conditional probability, and drawing Venn Diagrams related to probability. Students begin by playing a game, Dieing for a Four to explore the concept of expected value and then explore different probability scenarios to calculate expected value.

5/6/2008

Cover section 12.1: Randomness and Probability Technology activity day

5/7/2008

5/8/2008

Cover section 12.2: Counting Outcomes and Tree Diagrams Quiz over 12.1 and 12.2

5/9/2008

5/12/2008 Review quiz results, cover section 12.3: Mutually Exclusive Events and Venn Diagrams 5/13/2008 Cover section 12.4: Random Variables and Expected Value

5/14/2008 Cover section 12.5: This day is a study of permutations in probability Permutations and Probability through discovery learning with the Ice Cream Shop activity. 5/15/2008 Cover section 12.6: Combinations and Probability 5/16/2008 Activity and quiz This is a discovery of the idea of and formula for combinations and how they are related to permutations through the hand-shake activity. After reviewing material for the quiz and taking it, students work on a book investigation about combinations and the lottery. A problem-based lesson is presented in order to

5/20/2008 Review quiz results, start

JS_AS_BS_NK 4 learn Pascals Triangle and the Binomial Theorem. Students will use their calculators to help graph the binomial distributions and determine probabilities of events. This is a review day accompanied by a helpful review sheet for the next days test. This is an assessment of the overall progress of students in the probability unit.

section 12.7: The Binomial Theorem and Pascals Triangle 5/21/2008 Finish section 12.7

5/22/2008 Unit review day 5/23/2008 Unit test

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Day # 1

Lesson Title: Probably Awesome Unit Hook! (Betsy) To review basic probability concepts, like determining desirable and possible outcomes. To create visual aids in determining probabilities.
Students

Goal:

Objectives:

will roll dice, draw from decks of cards, and use a spinner to determine various probabilities. Students will draw tables and create lists that show possible outcomes when performing an experiment in probability. Students will gather information from both objectives listed above to express likelihoods of different events. Students will be put into groups of four and given a pair of dice, a deck of cards, and a spinner, along with a worksheet that asks about a number of probabilities associated with their materials. Students will be asked to determine the probability of rolling a certain sum of the dice, a particular rank or suite of the cards, or a subset of the numbers on the spinner. Using the materials that they are given, as well as the possibilities of outcome tables to be drawn, students will complete the activity as a group. The teacher will provide an example of a table or list if needed, but most of the lesson should be a review of what students already know. If time allows, students will write their own probability questions and trade with members of their groups to solve. No homework will be assigned.

Lesson Summary (one paragraph maximum)

HW

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Day # 2 Goal:

Lesson Title: Randomness and Probability (Andy)

Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by assigning probabilities to payoff values and finding expected values. (Common Core standard S-MD.5) Develop a basic understanding of random processes, events, simple events, compound events, and experimental and theoretical probability.

Objectives:

Students will calculate experimental probability for an experiment involving dice rolls. Students will calculate theoretical probability for the same experiment. Students will use a drawing and information to calculate geometric probability.

Lesson Summary (one paragraph maximum)

The teacher will introduce the lesson by asking about probability, and what individual students think it means. The teacher will then use those responses to craft a class definition of probability, which will include defining what an event is. The teacher will then ask for different ways of calculating probability, and classify them into groupings of experimental and theoretical probability. After that, the teacher will lead the class through understanding that a single event should be classified differently than the requirement that multiple events occur in the same scenario, and differentiate these as simple and compound events. The teacher will then lead the class through a calculation of the probability of different sums as a result of the rolling of two dice, and visualize the results as a bar graph. As an activity, the teacher will distribute dice to the students, and ask each student to roll pairs of dice and record the sum ten times. The students will be instructed to put their answers on a histogram on the board, and the experimental probability will be compared to the theoretical probability. Once this activity has finished, the teacher will conclude with a few remarks about different ways to calculate probability, including by calculating area in a geometric problem, and assign the homework for the day. Exercises 3, 4, 5, and 12 in section 12.1.

HW

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Day # 3 Goal:

Lesson Title: Technology Activity Day (Julie)

Students will be able to use a data analysis program (Tinkerplots) in order to find probabilities of certain outcomes. Students will understand probability vocabulary words presented in 12.1 and use them in an experiment. S-IC2: Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given data-generating process, e.g., using simulation (Common Core, Statistics and Probability) Students will be able to run an experiment to determine the experimental probability of an outcome. (NCTM Data analysis standard: know the characteristics of well-designed studies, including the role of randomization in surveys and experiments). Students will use Tinkerplots to enter data taken from conducting experiments, and then calculate certain probabilities. Students will arrange data in different representation types in order to see similarities and differences between different data sets. Students will be able to determine theoretical probabilities.

Objectives:

Lesson Summary (one paragraph maximum)

The students will conduct an experiment by pulling Starbursts out of a bag and returning the Starbursts to the bag. The first time the students will record 5 trials, and then the next stage the students will record 10 trials, and the next 15. The students will fill in a worksheet throughout this process asking questions about what is the sample space, if there is an equal number of each color Starburst then what is the theoretical probability of each, and predicting from the experimental probabilities what is the expected theoretical probability of the contents of the bag. The students will then use Tinkerplots to make a new card and enter the first stage as a case, as well as the second and third stages as separate cases. The students will then explore the many tools in Tinkerplots to explore the relationships between the different stages. The students will be told the actual contents of the bag to compare with their predictions, and they will make the connection between more trials being a better predictor. pg. 555 #8-10

HW

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Day # 4 Goal: Objectives:

Lesson Title: Counting Outcomes and Tree Diagrams (Betsy) To master counting possible outcomes of an event. To use tree diagrams effectively to find probabilities of both independent and dependent events. Students will organize their thoughts about a probability exercise and count outcomes by creating tree diagrams, labeled with corresponding probabilities. Students will implement the multiplication rule for independent events to find the probability of an event that is expressed through a tree diagram. Students will implement the multiplication rule for dependent events to find the conditional probability of an event that is expressed through a tree diagram.

Lesson Summary The teacher will review material from the previous lesson on 12.1 and (one paragraph how students found the ratio of the number of desired outcomes to the maximum) number of possible equally likely outcomes. The teacher will then introduce the days lesson by mentioning that counting the number of possible or desired outcomes can be difficult in some cases, and tree diagrams are a helpful solution to that problem. Students will be presented with a simple probability problem (Example A from the text) that they can partially solve with prior knowledge but will need new information to solve the rest. The teacher will then explain the understanding behind using tree diagrams, and students will work as a class to complete the second half of the first example problem. Next, the teacher will present a problem to the class that involves independent events, which will lead into the multiplication rule of independent events. Following, the teacher will assign students a problem that involves dependent events, and students will individually investigate until the teacher pulls the class together to talk about the multiplication rule for dependent events. To wrap up the class, the teacher will assign students to create a word sort from the terms used in class that day; this is designed to help the students in the class who are either under-achieving or struggle with reading. HW 12.2--Exercises 1, 2, 3, 4

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Day # 5 Goal:

Lesson Title: Quiz Day (Half Day)

Assess students understanding of the concepts covered in the first two sections of the chapter. Gather information with regard to concepts which need more attention or are causing difficulties for students. Students will complete the quiz.

Objectives: Lesson Summary (one paragraph maximum)

A quiz covering sections 12.1 and 12.2 will be administered during this period. The quiz will be relatively brief, to accommodate the shortened period due to the half day of classes. When students have finished the quiz, they are expected to work quietly on other things until the class ends. None

HW

JS_AS_BS_NK 10 Andy Schmitz

Probability: Mutually Exclusive Events and Venn Diagrams

Grade level: 10 Course: Algebra 2 Time allotted: 50 minutes Number of students: 25

General Considerations
This lesson covers section 12.3 of the Key Curriculum Press book Discovering Advanced Algebra. It deals with Venn diagrams, mutually exclusive events, and conditional probability. After reviewing the quiz from the last week, the lesson starts with mutually exclusive events, building on the tree diagrams reviewed in 12.2. It then moves on to Venn diagrams, and using them to visualize conditional probability and other situations.

Goals
Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using characteristics (or categories) of the outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or complements of other events (or, and, not). (Common Core standard S-CP.11) Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B. (Common Core standard S-CP.3) Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. (Common Core standard S-CP.5)

Objectives
Students will identify mutually exclusive events and events which are not mutually exclusive. Students will calculate conditional probability of dependent events. Students will construct and fill in Venn diagrams for two- and three-event situations.

Materials and Resources

This lesson will run best with a whiteboard or blackboard. Students will need the worksheet for this section and a writing utensil.

Common Core standards are Copyright 2010. National Governors Association Center for Best Practices and Council of Chief State School Officers. All rights reserved.

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Lesson Plan Beginning

1. As students come in, pass back their graded quizzes from the last week. 2. Review the quizzes with the students: summarize any important information and go over questions which several students answered incorrectly. 3. Ask students who have individual questions to ask them at the end of class. Ask all students to put the quiz away. 4. Pass out the worksheet for this section (included after this lesson plan), and remind students that you expect them to fill out the relevant parts of the notes when they come up, and that things are not necessarily in order.

Motivation
5. Remind students about a set of discrete events, such as rolling a die. Ask for the probability of rolling both a 2 and 3 in the same roll of a single die. 6. As students indicate that doing so is impossible, ask if it is impossible for events to happen together. Ask for examples of situations where this might happen. Students should answer that doing so is not impossible, and be able to come up with several examples. Write them on the board. If any events are in fact mutually exclusive, ask about several of the events given, and be sure to highlight that some of them are in fact mutually exclusive. If no student suggestions are non-mutually exclusive events, suggest some such events: What about rolling a 2 on the first roll, and a 3 on the second roll?

Lesson Procedure
Mutually Exclusive Events 7. Explain to students that two events which cannot happen at the same time are called mutually exclusive, and that if one event happens, the other(s) cannot. Remind students to fill out their note sheets as appropriate. 8. Put up a number of different events on the board: I roll a 2 on a die on the first roll. I roll a 2 on a die on the second roll. I roll a 5 on a die on the first roll. Our schools basketball team wins the upcoming game. The opposing basketball team wins the upcoming game. Our schools basketball team wins the game after this one. 9. Ask students to name several mutually exclusive events from the list, and then ask them to name some events that are not mutually exclusive. Students should be able to name several combinations for both. 10.Draw a tree diagram of the basketball game results. Ask students to see if they can name two mutually exclusive events using the tree diagram.

JS_AS_BS_NK 12 They should be able to name events like "our team and the opposing team win the next game." 11.Ask a student to explain how they might use a tree diagram to find mutually exclusive events. This may require assistance from other students, but different events which branch from the same root in the tree are mutually exclusive. Venn Diagrams 12.Ask the students if there is another way they might be able to organize the probabilities of these events occurring. Hopefully one or more students will mention Venn diagrams (even if not by name), but if not, hint that there might be something involving circles they could use. If someone seems to have the correct idea, invite them to draw their idea on the board. Ask other students whether they think the representation the student gave would work to represent probability. 13.If at least one student was familiar with Venn diagrams, ask students in the class to help you create and label a Venn diagram for the events listed previously. (Create one diagram for the dice, and one for the basketball games.) While students are directing what to do, ask for explanations of the different choices. For example, if a student says a circle should overlap another, ask why, and what each circle is for. If no students are familiar with the diagram, do this while providing the explanation. 14.Work with the class to come up with values for the events represented. For example, the probability of rolling a 2 is 1/6, and the probability of rolling both a 2 and a 5 on the first roll is 0/6. 15.Summarize the work of the students, and point out the different regions in the Venn diagram. Be sure to include the overlap between different events, and explain that the overlap means that both could happen together. Also point out the region outside of the events, which gives the probability that none of the events occur. 16.Point out a few different regions on the Venn diagram and ask students to identify the meaning of the regions. 17.Explain to the class that mutually exclusive events cannot occur together, so P(A and B)=0. 18.Tell the class that the type of graph they just created is a Venn diagram. Draw simple two- and three-event Venn diagrams for the class to copy down for future reference. Remind the class that they have these diagram in their notes, and that they can label parts of the diagram for their own reference. 19.Remind students that they may have seen Venn diagrams previously, especially when categorizing things, but that in math, they can also be used for probability.

JS_AS_BS_NK 13 Addition Rule 20.Ask a student to use the Venn diagram to calculate the probability of the schools basketball team winning one of their next two games. Ask them to explain their process as theyre doing it. It may be difficult to get students to respond, but allow them to ask for help from others in the class, and give pointers as necessary. 21.It is possible that the students will arrive at a formula including the sum of both events probabilities, but not subtracting the probability that both occur. If this happens, shade in the events on the Venn diagram for basketball to show the region that is being counted twice. (If it doesnt happen, shade each event and then point out that the students were thinking ahead, and subtracted the duplicated region.) 22.Point out that using a Venn diagram is an easy way of determining whether you have counted the right probabilities in events. 23.Give students the general addition rule, P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)P(A and B). Emphasize that this rule will work for all situations with two events. 24.Make sure that students understand this is something they will want to remember - and have in their notes. 25.If there is an appropriate amount of time, tell the class that because P(A and B)=0 for mutually exclusive events, the addition rule simplifies to P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B) for mutually exclusive events. If this is mentioned in class, be sure to emphasize that this simplification only applies for mutually exclusive events, and that the general form works in all cases. Conditional Events 26.Ask the class what the odds are that the basketball team wins both of their next games. (If appropriate, after receiving an answer, point out that this is the region where both events overlap in the Venn diagram.) 27.Ask a student what the odds are that the basketball team wins both of their next games assuming they win the next one. It is reasonable to expect some confusion here even though the concept of conditional probability was covered in section 12.2: try to restate the question if necessary, but dont immediately reveal that this is simply the probability that the team wins the game after the next game. 28.Ask the student to explain their thought process, and ask another student to explain the formula for conditional probability. Have these students (or additional students) fill in the values using the Venn diagram, and ask them to point out each region they used. 29.If time permits (ideally leaving a few minutes to start homework and ask further questions), ask a number of other conditional probability questions, so that students feel comfortable referencing the Venn diagrams to fill in values.

Closure
30.Ask students to define a mutually exclusive event, and work with the class to write a collaborative definition on the board.

JS_AS_BS_NK 14 Be sure to include the fact that the events cannot happen together. It may be appropriate to include the P(A and B)=0 formula as well. 31.Do the same for the definition of a conditional event. Be sure to ask about the P(A|B) syntax as well, and write what it means. 32.Ask one student to come up to the board and draw a two-event Venn diagram, and one student to draw a three-event Venn diagram. Ensure that they are standard Venn diagrams with the expected overlapping segments. 33.Remind students that they may wish to copy down what is now on the board for use in their own notes and on the homework. If (as expected) they already have some definitions for these on their notes, have them make sure their definitions match the class definition and revise anything that needs to be updated. 34.Assign questions 1, 2, 4, 7, and 11 in section 12.3 for homework.

Extension
Because students have a number of homework problems to complete, it may be appropriate to allow them to work on their homework, and ask questions as they arise. If this strategy isnt employed, further extensions of the activity could cover creating Venn diagrams from data, or computing conditional probability under different circumstances: ask students for the value of P(A|B) if A and B are independent events. What if they are mutually exclusive? Asking students to calculate P(A|B) given the data in one of the previously created Venn diagrams may also provide appropriate opportunities for practice.

Assessment
This activity has many different opportunities for assessment, primarily focused around the teachers questioning. If the teacher is unsure about the understanding of the class as a whole, it may be appropriate to ask the class to raise their hands if they agree with certain statements (such as Who thinks I should put 0.3 here? 0.1? ) to gauge understanding. There are also many opportunities for the teacher to ask individual students to answer a question regarding to the material, which requires critical thinking and understanding of prior material. (For example, Can I simplify this formula if I know that A and B are mutually exclusive? ) Of course, there is also the opportunity for more careful assessment of individual understanding by reviewing the assigned homework, or by observing students working on the homework in class.

Standards
Common Core standards S-CP.1, S-CP.3, and S-CP.5 are addressed in this lesson, as noted in the Goals section above. NCTM Communication Process Standard: The lesson asks students to communicate their understanding of probability and the concepts being introduced. This encourages students to clearly explain their reasoning and mathematical thoughts. It also helps build communication skills by working as a class to define concepts and solve problems. NCTM Connections Process Standard: This lesson connects a number of probability concepts, especially through the use of Venn diagrams. Students will be able to

JS_AS_BS_NK 15 visualize the connections between events and the universe of possible events, as well as other probability concepts. NCTM Representation Process Standard: This lesson teaches students about Venn diagrams, a popular form of representing probability. It also asks students to use the representation in a number of ways, both creating new diagrams and using existing diagrams to compute information.

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12.3 Notes
Define or explain:
Mutually Exclusive:

Name: _______________________

Conditional Probability:

Addition Rule:

Venn Diagram:

P(A|B):

Sample Venn Diagrams:

(Diagrams by Mats Halldin and Wikilibro, under CC-BY-SA 3.0 Unported.)

JS_AS_BS_NK 17 Name: Betsy Sudlow Date: 5/1/11 Grade Level: 10 Course: Mathematics Time Allotted: 50 minutes Number of Students: 25 I. Goals To classify quantities as discrete random variables or geometric random variables. To develop the concept of finding expected value of random variables. II. Objectives The student will classify numbers as discrete or geometric random variables by examining possible situations and explaining his or her reasoning. The student will see the bigger picture of expected value by performing the Dieing for a Four experiment/game. The student will find expected values of events by making tables with possible outcomes, probabilities of the outcomes, and products of the two. III. Materials and Resources Each student will need a Random Variables and Expected Value worksheet and a die. The teacher will need the Random Variables and Expected Value worksheet. IV. Motivation 1. Divide the class into groups of five and then introduce the Dieing for a Four game, where students will roll a die individually and count how many trials it takes to roll a 4, repeated ten times. Students will report their data on the Random Variables worksheet. 2. Students will then find the mean of the trials of all group members, averaging 50 numbers. Next, students will find the mean of the entire class. 3. Students will be asked to think about how many times (on average) they will need to roll to get a 4. Teacher: Based on this experiment, how many rolls would you expect to make on average before a 4 comes up? Transition: Explain that the concept that we just covered is that of expected value, also called the long-run value or mean value. Tell the class that today we will learn how to find expected values without actually doing an experiment each time. V. Lesson Procedure 4. Define random variables, discrete random variables, and geometric random variables on the board and have students fill on the blanks on their worksheets. Have students think of their own examples of each and write them in the space provided. This should help students who have trouble reading definitions from the text and help all students organize their thoughts.

JS_AS_BS_NK 18 Teacher: A discrete random variable has an integer value, like the dicerolling that you did at the beginning of class. Can anyone tell me anther example of a discrete random variable? Introduce the example that the sum of two rolled dice is a random variable. Teacher: Susan, what are the values that we can obtain when summing the values of each individual die? I will give you a moment to write down all of the possibilities. Susan: One plus one is two; thats how I got my first number. Then I got 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12. Teacher: You are correct, Susan. David, how many ways can you roll a sum of two? David: Just one, because its snake eyes. Teacher: Thats right. How many ways can you roll a 5? Or a 7? Write down all of the ways that you can roll each sum and then write them each as a probability out of the total number of sums that you get. Have students fill in the table of values for the probabilities of each possible sum and the associated probability. Walk around the room to make sure students understand the concept. Continue to introduce the expected value of this event. Teacher: In theory, the expected value of these sums, which we called x in the table, is the average that we would get after we rolled the dice many timeseven more than 1 million times! But lets say that we rolled the dice 36 times and got exactly what we wrote down in the table for each probabilitywed roll a 2 once, a 3 twice, and so on until we get: ( + 3 + 3 + 4 + 4 + 4 + + 11 + 11 + 12)/36. What does that equal? Is there a connection between that and the probabilities of each sum? Terrance: Its seven. Seven had the biggest probability of all the sums. But isnt that just common sense? Or is this a trick problem? Teacher: Well lets see. How about we distribute the denominator over the terms in the numerator and group them into similar outcomes. Let me write that as (1/36)x2 + (2/36)x3 and so on until we get the equivalent expression that equals 7. Terrance: Isnt that just all the probabilities we got before? Are they multiplied by the sum that we got? Teacher: Exactly! The expected value is the sum of each event multiplied by its probability. Victoria: Well thats a lot easier than rolling dice 1 million times. Tell the class that the expected value of a discrete random variable may not be an integer, even though the random variable is. Introduce the next problem on the worksheet about Matt and his grandpa and do the problem as a class. Shannon: So the smallest he can get is $1, and the biggest is $20? Ebony: Yeah, and he can also get a $5 or a $10. Mariana: Well there are 8 outcomes because there are 8 bills, so each probability will be out of 8 total. I got the probabilities to be the number of each bill over 8.

5.

6.

7.

8. 9.

JS_AS_BS_NK 19 Teacher: Thats right. Now you should fill in the bottom row so that you can find the expected value. VI. Closure 14. Review the definitions of the different kinds of random variables from before and have students discuss the final two items on their worksheetsexplaining which situations are discrete and which are geometric random variables. Ask students to classify the examples that we did in class if they havent already and think of one more example for each kind of random variable to write on their papers. Finally, have groups explain the concept of expected value to one another as if they are the teachers of the class. Students will be assigned problems 7 and 9 from section 12.4 for homework. VII. Extension If time allows, have students open up to section 12.4 in their books and play the game under Reason and Apply, number 6. Students should write their results and conclusions on the back of the worksheet provided in class. VIII. Assessment Assessment takes place throughout this lesson. The teacher holds students accountable for keeping up with the class by asking questions about the examples. The teacher walks around the room and gauges where students are with learning and applying the material and also how the under-achieving students are performing with new material. Finally, the teacher assigns homework to assess understanding from the lesson. IX. Standards This lesson addresses the following Common Core Math Standards: S-MD.2. Calculate the expected value of a random variable; interpret it as the mean of the probability distribution. S-MD.3. (+) Develop a probability distribution for a random variable defined for a sample space in which theoretical probabilities can be calculated; find the expected value. This lesson promotes the following NCTM process standards: Reasoning and ProofStudents have to determine which numbers are discrete or geometric random variables and discuss their conclusions with their groups. CommunicationStudents are called upon to state various probabilities and possible outcomes and how they got them. ConnectionsStudents use their prior knowledge of writing probabilities as fractions of the possibility out of the whole.

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Name: __________________ Dieing for a Four: Trial Number of Rolls 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Group Mean: ______________ Class Mean: _______________ The quantity equal to the average result of an experiment after a large number of trials is the ___________ _____________. A numerical quantity whose value depends on the outcome of a chance experience is a _____________ ___________. A random variable that only takes on distinct values is a ___________ random variable. A random variable whose probabilities form a geometric sequence is called a ____________ random variable. x Probability of x Work Space for Notes:

When Matt goes to visit his grandfather, his grandfather always gives him a piece of advice, closes his eyes, and then takes out one bill and gives it to Matt. On this visit, he sends Matt to get his wallet. Matt peeks inside and sees 8 bills: 2 one-dollar bills, 3 five-dollar bills, 2 ten-dollar bills, and 1 twenty-dollar bill. What is the expected value of the bill Matt will receive? (Adapted from 12.4 Example B) x Probability P(x) x P(x)

Sum

JS_AS_BS_NK 21 Lesson Plan 12.5 Permutations and Probability Nick Koberstein Date of Lesson: May 14 Grade Level: 9th Grade Course: Honors Algebra 2 Allotted Time: 50 minutes Number of Students: 25 Goals To use students prior knowledge to look at arrangements without replacement when order is important, ie. permutations To use permutations in finding probability Objectives The student will illustrate permutations with box slots The student will recall the tree diagrams to understand the counting principle The student will apply the counting principle to solve problems about ice cream The student will discover and apply the formula for permutations The student will execute factorials and permutations quickly with calculators Materials and Resources Ice cream scoops/cone cut outs for each group Table worksheet Magnets (optional) Counting Cones worksheet Smart board Whiteboard/markers Previous Knowledge Theoretical Probability Tree Diagrams, Simple Events, Compound Events The Multiplication Rule Procedure 1. Review of Prior Knowledge (5 minutes) a. Ask students what their favorite flavor of ice cream is until you get three different flavors. (eg. Chocolate, Vanilla, Strawberry) b. Write them on the board. c. For the last week, weve been talking about probability and random variables. Who remembers what Theoretical Probability is? P(E)= , where you count the number of ways a desired event can happen and compare this number to the total number of equally likely possible outcomes. d. Write P(E)= on the board.

JS_AS_BS_NK 22 If I were to randomly take a scoop out of these three flavors, what is the probability that I would get strawberry? 1/3 or 33% i. If students arent getting the correct answer, remind them to look at the definition of theoretical probability, P(E). ii. Number of different ways to get strawberry = 1 container iii. Number of equally likely outcomes = 3 flavors f. What if I had 5 different flavors to randomly choose from? What is the probability of getting strawberry then? 1/5 or 20% g. What if I had 9 tubs of ice cream? 3 of them being vanilla, 2 strawberry and 4 chocolate. What is the probability of getting a scoop of vanilla? Of strawberry? Of Chocolate? Draw a picture if needed. 3/9=1/3=33%, 2/9=.22, 4/9=.44 e. Transition: Great job applying theoretical probability in those problems! Now we are going to use our ice cream scoops to go further into the concept of probability. 2. Motivation (10 minutes) a. Have the class be in groups of 2-4. b. I want to open an ice cream shop down town. My Weekend Special will be a 2 Scoop Cone of any of our classs favorite flavors for only $1. But each scoop has to be different. How many different ice cream cones could I make for this special? c. Pass out the cut outs (3 scoops, 1 cone) and the Table Worksheet. Instruct the class to label each scoop as one of the favorite flavors (eg. chocolate, vanilla, strawberry) and to begin filling in the table by making different cones. d. Students may start to ask if Vanilla-Chocolate is the same as ChocolateVanilla. Remember, if you were eating an ice cream cone, one scoop is on top of the either, meaning youd have to eat that one first, so a chocolate on bottom and vanilla on top is different than vanilla on bottom and chocolate on top. e. After all groups finishing filling in the first table, ask the different groups how many options they came up with. If they get different amounts, pull up the Table Worksheet on the Smart board and ask students to help you fill it in. You can also use your set of cut outs with magnets on the whiteboard to demonstrate the different options. f. My favorite flavor is Sherbet (or something not used yet). If I had 4 flavors to choose from for my two scoops, how many different ice cream cones could I make? g. Pass out the fourth scoop cut out and instruct the class to fill out the second table using four flavors and two scoops. h. Once the groups are finished, repeat step e. but with four flavors. Transition: So given three flavors for a two scoop cone, we have 6 options. When we have 4 flavors for a two scoop cone, we have 12 options. You are probably wondering if there is

JS_AS_BS_NK 23 an easier way to do this than by moving cut outs around to see all the different possibilities. And fortunately there is. 3. Box Slots (5 minutes) a. On the board write n = the number of flavors, r = the number of scoops. b. Lets first look at when we had three flavors. c. First we draw r slot boxes. So we will draw two boxes since we have two scoops. The first box will represent the first scoop and the second box will represent the second scoop. d. Draw two boxes e. How many options do we have for the flavor of the first scoop? 3 because there are 3 flavors. f. How many options do we have for the flavor of the second scoop? 2 because there are 2 left. i. If students ask why it is not three, remind them that you cant use a flavor more than once and since we used one flavor for the first scoop, that flavor can no longer be used. g. On the board, write 3 2 h. Now all we have to do is multiply across. So 3 times 2 is? 6. i. Repeat using four flavors. Comment: Before we do any more, I want to comment on something. Throughout our ice cream scenario, we have been saying that once we use a flavor of ice cream for a scoop, we can no longer use the flavor when arranging our ice cream. These are called arrangements without replacement. In other words, once an item is chosen, that same item cannot be used again in the same arrangement. Transition: So why do we multiply the number in the slots? To explain this, lets look at toppings for an ice cream sundae. 4. Counting Principle (7-10 minutes) a. At my ice cream shop, I have hot fudge, caramel, strawberry sauce, butterscotch, or chocolate sauce. My candies are oreos or m&ms. The extras include sprinkles, a cherry, or peanuts. A sundae comes with one syrup, one candy, and one extra. b. We can visualize a tree diagram with five choices of syrups. For each of those syrups, you can select two different candies. Each of those syrups and candies can be matched with three extras. c. Sketch this diagram on the board but dont label everything. State that actually drawing all of the paths would be difficult and messy. d. Each set of sundae toppings is represented by a path of three segments representing a syrup and a candy and an extra. The paths represent all the possible outcomes, or different ways in which a sundae can be made. e. How many sets of sundae toppings are there? From the tree that I sketched, you can see that the total number of ways to make a sundae with five choices, then two choices, and then three choices can be found by

JS_AS_BS_NK 24 multiplying . When we do this, we are using the Counting Principle. f. On the board write Counting Principle: Suppose there are ways to make a choice, and for each of these there are ways to make a second choice, and for each of these there are ways to make a third choice, and so on. The product is the number of possible outcomes. Transition: The counting principle provides a quick method for calculating numbers of outcomes, using multiplication. Lets go back to our ice cream scenario and apply this principle. 5. Applying the Counting Principle to Ice Cream Scoops (5-7 minutes) a. Distribute the Counting Cones worksheet to each group for them to work on. b. Walk around the room as students are working to see if there are any questions or common mistakes. If mistakes are present, do a few on the board to allow student discussion. c. Watch for difficulty on number 7. Remind students that for part a, flavors and topping can repeat so you will end up with . For part b, you can give the hint that the denominator was found in part a. d. Once all groups are finished, call on different groups to answer the questions based on what you saw as you walked around. If time permits, use groups that will cause more discussion. Transition: So far today we have been talking about arranging items in specific ways where the items cannot be used more than once. This is the key concept of today which we will define now. 6. Permutations Definition (3-5 minutes) a. Write on the board, An arrangement of some or all of the objects from a set, without replacement, is called a Permutation. A permutation is notated, nPr and is read the number of permutations of n things chosen r at a time. b. As we did in our ice cream cone example and in part b of number 7 in the group work, you can calculate nPr by multiplying n(n 1)(n - 2)(n - 3) (n - r + 1). c. Write nPr = n(n 1)(n - 2)(n - 3) (n - r + 1) on the board. Transition: We can rewrite this formula by using factorials. 7. Factorials (5 minutes) a. When r = n as in number 3 from the group work, you can see that nPr equals the product of integers from n all the way down to 1. A product like this is called a factorial and is written with an exclamation point. b. Do an example. 7 factorial, or 7!, is 7 6 5 4 3 2 1, or 5040. c. Demonstrate how to do factorials on the calculator: 7>Math>PRB>!

JS_AS_BS_NK 25 d. Ask for a volunteer to give you 4!, 9!, 11! and ask the class if they agree or disagree with their answers.(24, 362880, 39916800) 8. Permutations Another Look (5-7 minutes) a. When rn like in number 2 of the group work (8 flavors, 5 scoops), we only need the product of integers from 8 down to 4. b. On the board write 8 7 6 5 4 c. Does anyone have an idea of how this would look as fraction of factorials? Looking for . Other possible student

responses :, d. Lets take a look. (write on board) 8 7 6 5 4 = = = e. Thus our complete definition is, (on board) A Permutation is an arrangement of some or all the objects from a set, without replacement. The number of permutations of n objects chosen r at a time (r n) is = n(n 1) (n - 2) (n - r + 1) = f. To avoid division by 0 when r = n, we define 0! as equal to 1. So, when r and n
nPr

are equal, nPr = = = g. Demonstrate how to do factorials on the calculator: 8P5 8>Math>PRB>nPr>5 h. To check understanding, ask for volunteers to give you the following: 10P6 , 4P3 , 5P5 , 13P7. 9. Extension a. Have students split up in groups. b. Each student should create a scenario that would involve using permutations. c. Switch problems with someone from your group and solve. d. Represent some of the different problems and solutions to the class. 10. Assign homework problems from book a. 1, 2(a,c,e,g), 3(a,d), 5, 6, 8 and 9 due tomorrow 11. Closure a. In your journal, answer number 4 from the book and also tell me what you found most interesting about todays lesson. Assessment

JS_AS_BS_NK 26 When asking for volunteers, call on a variety of students to get a better idea of how the class as a whole is doing. When an answer is giving, take a poll to see if everyone agrees. During the group work, walk around the room and ask students questions to check their understanding. Throughout lesson ask if students have any questions. Grade homework that was assigned at the end to determine if students understand the material.

Common Core Standards S-IC.1 S-CP.1 S-MD.3 NCTM Standards Problem Solving The motivational problem in this lesson requires students to solve the problem of finding out how many ice cream cones they could make without being told a formula for doing it. Communication This lesson will focus on the contributions of the students. When a student gives an answer, they will be asked to explain how they got that answer. They will also have to communicate with others in their group work. Connections This lesson will connect with the topics that have been taught during the past week, including Tree Diagrams and Theoretical Probability. Representation This lesson will include cut outs that students can see and use to represent the different permutations of ice cream cones.

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JS_AS_BS_NK 28 3 Flavors, 2 Scoops Scoop 1 Option 1 Option 2 ... Scoop 2 Option 1 Option 2 ... 4 Flavors, 2 Scoops Scoop 1 Scoop 2

JS_AS_BS_NK 29 Counting Cones 1. 5 Flavors, 2 scoops 4. 12 Flavors, 4 scoops

2. 8 Flavors, 5 scoops

5. 10 Flavors, 6 scoops

3. 4 Flavors, 4 scoops

6. 5 Flavors, 4 scoops

12. Baskin-Robbins is known for its "31 flavors" slogan. This week they also have 10 different kinds of toppings. Suppose a sundae comes with 3 scoops and 2 toppings.

b. How many different sundaes could you make if you are allowed to repeat flavors and toppings?

c. What is the probability that a sundae has three different flavors of ice cream and two different toppings?

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Day # 9 Goal:

Lesson Title: Combinations and Probability (Nick)

To use students prior knowledge of permutations to now look at arrangements when order is not important, ie. combinations To use combinations in finding probability The student will discover and apply the formula for combinations The student will compare permutations and combinations and see their relationship The student will execute combinations quickly with calculators

Objectives:

Lesson Summary (one paragraph maximum)

The students will split into 5 groups of 5. Starting with only two of the five and working up to all five participating, they will record on a worksheet how many handshakes the different sized groups can make. They will then make guesses of how many handshakes 10, 15, and 20 people could make. After all groups are finished, the groups will discuss their answers. We will then discuss how this situation is different from our ice cream scenario when we were talking about permutations because when shaking hands, order does not matter. This will be followed by a definition of combinations. The class will then work to discover how combinations are related to permutations which will then lead us to the formula for combinations. After discovering the formula, the class will learn how to use their calculator to quickly compute combinations. This will be followed by an example of flipping a coin and looking at different outcomes. As closure, they will be asked to do number 8 from the exercises in their journals. Exercises 1(a,c), 2(a,d), 3(a,c,e), 4, 5 and 7

HW

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Day # 10 Goal:

Lesson Title: Activity and Quiz (Nick)

To review material from this week To see combinations in use To assess students knowledge The students will review homework problems The students will work in groups to implement combinations in an Investigation The students will be assessed by taking a 20 minute quiz

Objectives:

Lesson Summary (one paragraph maximum)

This day will start by reviewing the material that was taught during this week. One or two questions from the homeworks for this week will be worked out on the board. Afterwards, the class will begin working on the Investigation of page 706. This investigation involves combinations and the Lottery. Step 1 will be done with the whole class. Steps 2-8 will be done in groups to analyze the results. Once the Investigation is finished or once there are only 20 minutes of class left, a quiz will be distributed. The quiz will cover mutually exclusive events, Venn diagrams, random variables, expected value, permutations, and combinations. Whatever was not finished from the Investigation will be worked on if the quiz is turned in early or done for homework over the weekend. Finish the Investigation

HW

JS_AS_BS_NK 32 Section 12.7 Lesson Plan Name: Julie Serwy Class/Subject: 9th-11th Grade Math / Probability Date: 05/20/2008 Time: 50 minutes Number of Students: 25 1. Goal(s) 1. Students will learn the connection between Pascal's Triangle, Combinations 2. Students will be able to find the coefficients of binomial expansions. 2. Objective(s) 1. Students will use the combination formula in order to determine number of ways to combine certain objects. 2. Students will use the Binomial Theorem to compute expansions of binomials raised to a certain power. 3. Materials and Resources 1. Warm Up Questions for Overhead 2. Investigation Handout 3. Graphic Organizer 4. SMARTboard 5. Notebook 4. Motivation / Hook 1. Students get to work in their assigned groups for the unit. They will be given time to work through the problem-based lesson before regrouping for a summary of the material learned. 2. The motivation for this lesson is an application of the combination formula they learned in the previous section. 5. Timeline # 1 Title / Time Allotted Review Quiz / 8 minutes What will I be doing? What will the students be doing?

Quizzes will be face- Reviewing their quizzes down on the students and asking questions desks for when they about the problems on come in. I will go over the quiz as a class the problems that most students missed, and I will field any questions Taking attendance, Students will be checking students' working on the warm up previous homework for questions silently then completion grades, will work with their

Warm Up Question / 5 minutes

JS_AS_BS_NK 33 looking for particular student examples 2 Warm Up Question Discussion / 5 minutes groups

Asking students to Students will be explain their answers, discussing their answers inviting students to the with the class board Presenting information via the SMARTboard Taking notes, asking questions

3 4

Pascal's Triangle / 5 minutes Investigation Intro / 2 minutes

Quickly review the They will write down definition of the formula on the top of combination and review the Investigation the formula for counting Worksheet, ask any without order questions (combination) Walk around and probe students with interesting questions, check that the groups are working Walk around and help students visualize the situation at hand Exploring connection between Pascal's triangle and the combinations Working through a word problem / real-world connection to better understand uses of Pascal's Triangle Finishing their worksheets, adding more detailed explanations

Investigation Part I / 8 minutes

Investigation Part II / 12 minutes

Wrap-Up / 5 minutes

Review the concepts learned today, assign homework

Extension / (if time permits)

Allow students to start Students are to fill out working on their their graphic organizers homework, walk around about uses of the and informally binomial theorem. interview students to Students are to think gauge understanding about this together in groups

6. Lesson Procedure 1. Warm Up Question 1. Place the warmup question on the SMARTboard. Have the students work silently on their own to figure out the problem for 5 minutes, then allow the students to speak with their groups for about 2 minutes. 2. I will ask the students if they found the pattern to the sequences (given in the Pascal's Triangle Format). During the time where I checked student homework, I will try and look for students whom answered the warm-up

JS_AS_BS_NK 34 question correctly and those who didn't. I will open the discussion of the pattern to the class. 1. Class, has anyone figured out what the next line of the pattern should be? 1. I think the next line should be 1 6 14 14 14 6 1 2. Our group thinks the next line should be 1 6 15 20 15 6 1 2. Did each of you want to come up to the board and show us how you got your answers? 3. I will have the students come up to the board and show the class how they got their answers. After pointing out the pattern they see, I will show them the way Pascal's triangle is actually generated by pointing out the summation of the terms directly above. On the SMARTboard, I will begin the introduction to the lesson. I will bring up a Pascal's Triangle with more completed rows, and define the triangle and point out some properties: 1. Every row begins and ends with a 1 2. The middle terms are made from adding the two above it 3. Every row has one more term than the next What are some uses of Pascal's Triangle? I will pass out the Investigation Worksheet to the class. Let's go back to what we learned last Thursday, can anyone recall what we did? We covered Combinations and the formula. 1. I will write the formula nCr = nPr / r! = n!/ (r!(n-r)!) on the SMARTboard, and the students will write this on the top of their Investigation Worksheet. The students will now work in their groups to complete the Investigation Worksheet. I will walk around the room and work individually in each group to see if the students are understanding the material. There is an important realization the students must make in the investigation worksheet. The students must see that the the table of numbers they generated is the same sequence of numbers from the sixth row of Pascal's triangle. As I walk around, I will make sure that the students see this. If they do not, I will ask them to think back to the warm up question, and see if there are any similarities. 1. Do you notice any symmetries? The numbers are repeated, is there a certain order to the numbers? What about the patterns in Pascal's Triangle? 2. Students: I don't see how these numbers make any sense. 3. They are made by adding the numbers directly above. Why don't you make a Pascal's Triangle yourself from scratch to see how it's done. The students should be able to work through the first section of the worksheet fairly quickly, if the students haven't moved on to the second section after 10 minutes, work with them to finish the section. The next section is an application of Pascal's Triangle to a combination situation. Allow the students to work together. If the students aren't able to finish the worksheet, have them work on it for homework in addition to the assignment. I will walk around the classroom to see if the students are working well. 1. The students will be working on the introduction to the Binomial Theorem. From prior knowledge, they should know how to multiply two binomials, and they should then be able to multiply three binomials

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

4.

5.

JS_AS_BS_NK 35 together. If the students forget how to do this, remind the students on the algorithm they used to multiply the two binomials. 2. Review the distribution property, emphasize that each term must my multiplied by all the rest. 1. Write on the board the three binomials, multiply the first two and get a trinomial, then show how each term in the trinomial is distributed to each term in the binomial by drawing arrows.

7. Closure 1. I will regroup the students together for a brief comment on the use of Pascal's Triangle to compute the coefficients of expansions. I will ask the students what would I do if I wanted to find the 2nd term of the expansion (H+T)^1000. The students may say things like keep adding the stuff above, or pull out a calculator to do it for you. This is when I will introduce the Binomial Theorem equation, on how to compute expansions. I will write the Binomial Theorem on the SMARTboard and have the students write this down in their notes. 2. The students will be given several problems for homework regarding Pascal's Triangle and the binomial expansions using the Binomial Theorem. 8. Extension 1. If time permits, then we can hold a class discussion on the material we have covered in class so far. This is a busy day so if there is extra time, the students may begin their homework. 2. I will hand out a graphic organizer for the students to fill out regarding the uses of the binomial theorem. This will help our students who have reading difficulties because it will present the information in a new, reorganized way. 9. Assessment 1. During the activity - I will be walking around the groups while the class is working on their investigation. I can ask students questions pertaining to the use of the rows of Pascal's Triangle, and what relationship does the row number have with the exponent of the binomial. 2. After the activity - I will have students complete a homework assignment. Homework: pg. 607 #1, 6, 7 10. Standards 1. Common Core: 1. A-APR4: Know and apply the Binomial Theorem for the expansion of (x+ y)^n in powers of x and y for a positive integer n, where x and y are any numbers, with coefficients determined for example by Pascals Triangle.

JS_AS_BS_NK 36 2. NCTM Process Standards: 1. Problem Solving: Allows students to recognize and choose a variety of appropriate strategies to solve problems involving probability. Builds mathematical knowledge through exploration in the form of investigatory analysis. Students are allowed to reflect on their own strategies, as well as others strategies to solve problems involving patterns of coefficients. 2. Reasoning and Proof: Students recognize and create conjectures about patterns they observe with the coefficients Students explain and justify why these conjectures are true, and test if they hold for higher valued n. 3. Communication: Students will be asked to organize their mathematical thinking in written and verbal communication that is easily understood by teachers and fellow students. Students will be asked to use vocabulary pertaining to combinations, permutations, and polynomials when necessary.

JS_AS_BS_NK 37 Warm Up Question

What is the next row of numbers?

1 11 121 1331 14641 1 5 10 10 5 1

JS_AS_BS_NK 38 Day 11 Section 12.7 Name: ______________________________ Date: _______________

Investigation Worksheet PART I Directions: Finish the formula for the number of combinations of n objects, then fill out the table below. Answer the following questions about the table. nCr = _____________

Number of Combinations for n=5 Term Value 5C0 5C1 5C2 5C3 5C4 5C5 1. What values did you get in the table? Do any repeat?

2. Write the values you found in the table above in a horizontal line. Is there any pattern to this?

3. This pattern should look familiar. Can you tell us about where you have seen this pattern before?

JS_AS_BS_NK 39 4. Do you think this pattern show up for other values of n? What would you need to do to test this?

5. Do what you said in number 4 to explore the pattern for the value n = 6.

6. Is this sequence of numbers for n=6 a row from Pascal's Triangle? If so, which?

JS_AS_BS_NK 40 Day 11 Section 12.7 PART II 1. You have the binomial H+T. What are the coefficients in this binomial?

2. Expand (H+T)^2.

3. Expand (H+T)^3

4. Is there a pattern to the coefficients of the terms in (H+T)^2 and (H+T)^3? If so, what is it?

5. What is another way we could write each of the terms in (H+T)^3 using nCr notation?

6. Using the pattern you found in part 4, what would be the coefficients of the terms in (H+T)^4?

7. Using the pattern you found in part 4, what would be the first coefficient in the expansion of (H+T)^1000

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JS_AS_BS_NK 42 Day # 12 Goal: Lesson Title: Probability of Binomial Events (Julie)

Understand connection between Binomial Theorem and a binomial distribution Learn how to determine probability of success from a word problem Learn notation for binomial distribution Use the Binomial Theorem to determine probability of success of a particular binomial event Understand whether an event in binomial or not given a word problem Be able to determine probabilities given a graph of the probability mass function or the cumulative mass function

Objectives:

Lesson Summary A lecture about binomial events, samples, and populations will be given. Since (one paragraph the students have not learned about distributions, it is important to stress that maximum) you can take a probability of a range of events, not just of a single or compound event. Students will be presented with an example of a binomial event and it will be worked through as a class. Students will also be taught how to graph the probability mass function and the cumulative distribution function of the binomial event, and also taught how to read the graphs to find the probabilities of interest. Then students will be assigned homework dealing with binomial event probabilities. HW pg. 608 #9-12, pg. 609 # 16

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Day # 13 Goal:

Lesson Title: Unit Review (Andy)

Understand the topics discussed in the section and their relationship to each other. Prepare for the upcoming unit test. Students will review major concepts from throughout the unit, and ask questions about material they find unclear. Students will learn material from other students, and collaborate in asking and answering review questions.

Objectives:

Lesson Summary The teacher will briefly cover all of the previous sections of the text, (one paragraph mentioning only the key terms and ideas from each section, and ask if any maximum) students have questions regarding different concepts. If any questions arise, the teacher will work with other students in the classroom to come up with an answer to the question. After all questions are answered, a review sheet with several questions relevant to the unit and several blank spaces for questions will be passed out to students. Students will be asked to review (but not answer) the questions and then write 2-3 of their own review questions, and swap review sheets with a partner. Students will then work in groups of up to four people to complete the review activity, while the teacher canvasses the classroom answering questions. If any common themes appear in questions or misconceptions, the teacher will interrupt the class to attempt to clarify the concept. The students will be reminded that completing the review worksheet is likely to help them on the test, but is not required. HW Study for the unit test on Friday.

JS_AS_BS_NK 44

Day # 14 Goal: Objectives: Lesson Summary (one paragraph maximum) HW

Lesson Title: Unit Test Assess all of the goals for the unit Have students complete unit test A unit test covering topics from sections 12.1-12.7 will be administered today, it is intended to be a 50 minute test. When the students complete the test, they will be able to work silently on other class homework until the end of the period. None

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# 1

Learning Objective Determine the probability of success of a binomial event.

Assessment Item Elliot has to fill exactly 20 more pizza orders before closing. He has enough pepperoni for 16 more pizzas. On a typical night, 65% of the orders are for pepperoni pizzas. What is the probability that Elliot will run out of pepperoni? Find the tenth term of (a+b)^21.

Understand the application of Pascals Triangle to the expansion of binomials Discover and apply the formula for permutations

Suppose each student in a school is assigned one locker. How many ways can three new students be assigned to five available lockers? Suppose you are taking a multiple-choice test for fun. Each question has five choices (A-E). You roll a six-sided die and mark the answer according to the number on the die and leave the answer blank if the die is a 6. Each question is scored one point for a right answer, minus one-quarter point for a wrong answer, and no points for a question left blank. a.) What is the expected value for each question? b.) What is the expected value for a 30-question test? Your school newspaper surveyed the entire sophomore class, and found that of 500 students, 132 were in band, and 244 liked gym. Just 45 sophomores in band didnt like gym. a.) Create a Venn diagram of this situation. b.) You run into a sophomore in the hallway. What are the odds that they like gym? c.) As you talk with them, you find out that they arent in band. Does this information change the probability that they like gym? If so, what is the new probability. If not, why not?

Analyze word problems to calculate expected value

Use multiple representations in calculating probability.

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