Daily Technical Report: Mark ET

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
15 August, 2011
S-TERM
MULTI-DAY
L-TERM
MULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/ POSITION Sell Stop 3
ENTRY LEVEL 1.4060
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS 1.37701.34101.3050 Await fresh signal. Awaiting Buy Trade Setup above 80.00. Await signal.
STOP
MARK EUR/USD ET
GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
1.4250
USD/CAD AUD/USD GBP/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/GBP
LONG 3 Sell Stop 3
0.9960 1.0070
1.00601.02101.0670 (Entered 12082011) 0.97050.95400.8770 Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal. Exited at 1730. Await Sell Trade Setup below 37.0000.
0.9810 1.0310
Bijoy Kar, CFA
EUR/CHF GOLD SILVER

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH
DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES

Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports. CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland info@migbank.com www.migbank.com
MIG BANK Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01
EUR/USD EUR/USD

15 August, 2011 EURUSD remains bearish under resistance at 1.4420.
EUR/USD
EURUSD's BERMUDA TRIANGLE EUR/USD
FAILED
BREAKOUTS
PIVOT ZONE
EUR/USDs price activity remains bearish, following several reactionary bounces which failed in resistance at 1.4420. This confirms yet another bearish signal, weighed down by additional failed breakouts from this major Bermuda triangle pattern, which has proved costly to most investors and traders. We prefer to open a trade setup once this pattern triggers a meaningful directional breakout and have activated a sell order at 1.4060.
REVERSAL PATTERN REVERSAL PATTERN AT 200 DMA (1.3945) TREND 2 YEARS (1.3860)
Our long standing bearish view remains in play while the downtrend (from May 04th) holds. A resumption lower will target 1.3945 (200-DMA), where a large amount of die-hard trend followers will be watching closely for repeat support or a big squeeze lower toward our initial objectives at 1.3770 and 1.3410. Only a close above 1.4580 will lead to a reassessment of this view. Inversely, the US dollar index is maintaining its oversold bounce from key support at 73.50-73.00. We expect this level to hold (as the last point of
EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

200-DMA (76.67) US DOLLAR INDEX (Daily 2 years) US$ INDEX (Weekly) (4 YEARS)
EUR/USD daily and monthly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

+27% +19%
defence), helping launch a rebound back into 80.00 over the multiweek/month horizon. COT liquidity readings are continuing to support further US dollar strength, nearing our trigger level of 15000 net long contracts.
TD EXHAUSTION BUY SIGNAL 13
TD EXHAUSTION BUY SIGNALS
13
KEY SUPPORT (73.50)
TRIGGER (15000) COT LIQUIDITY
STILL UNWINDING!
SPECIAL REPORT : EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410.

Please select link: REPORT VIDEO
EXTREME NET US $ SHORT POSITIONS
US Dollar Index daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Sell Stop 3: 1.4060, Obj: 1.37701.34101.3050 Stop:1.4250
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Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2
EUR/USD daily and monthly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD GBP/USD

15 August, 2011 Rallying from support at 1.6086 (200-day MA)
GBP/USD exhibits a number of characteristics on longer-term charts that are suggestive of further gains. We are watching the current rally from support at 1.6086 (200-day MA), which may offer upside extensions into 1.6547, then 1.6747.
200-dMA
Furthermore, long-term trend-line resistance off 2.1162 has been tested as support (not shown), suggesting that the recovery from 1.4231, in the weekly timeframe, remains intact. To a degree, the recent strength seen in Sterling is also down to it being GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP perceived as a haven from the stresses in the Eurozone. Failure to remain above 1.6085 (200-day MA) will warn of a fresh relapse towards 1.5781, in the longer-term. GBP/USD weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3
USD/JPY USD/JPY
84.50
USD/JPY (Daily 1 YEAR)

15 August, 2011
POST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT (PIR I)
Further unwinding after recent BOJ intervention.

USD/JPY is consolidating after its second post intervention retracement (in 2011), which is now testing key support at 76.3025 (major lows).
EARTHQUAKE SHOCK!
We remain bullish in the medium to long-term, watching for stable price

83.30
POST G7 MOVE HIGH
moves above that all important level at 80.00. This would initiate our buy trade setup, offering a resumption of the preferred new structural bull-cycle.
82.00
Near-term support can be found at 76.3025 (major lows). Only a sustained weekly close below here will lead to a reassessment of our view.
MAJOR TRIANGLE (WAVE IV) SIGNALS FINAL MOVE DOWN
To trigger the impulsive move higher, we still need a close above strategic
PIR II
USD/JPY Weekly (2007 2011)
levels at 80.00, then 82.00 (post G7 intervention high) and 83.30 (post Earthquake shock high), then onwards into 85.50 (07th April high-major trend-line breakout target).
ENDING DIAGONAL PATTERN BREAKOUT TARGET

(88-85)
CONFLUENCE ZONE
The bulls must extend gains past 85.50 to trigger a renewed attack onto 88.00 (Major ending diagonal pattern ceiling).
MONTHLY TD EXHAUSTION BUY SIGNAL
NEW POST WWII RECORD LOW !!! (76.25)
13
WAVE 5
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
USD/JPY daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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Await Buy Trade Setup above 80.00
USD/JPY daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CHF USD/CHF

15 August, 2011 Sharp unwinding ahead of long-term 30 year support!
Considering what is taking place in other risk markets we see the potential for USD demand to pick up over coming sessions, thus placing a near-term floor on USD/CHF. In the hourly timeframe we see healthy sharp unwinding from extremely oversold conditions, amidst critical long-term (30 year) support as illustrated on the quarterly chart (see market example). LONG-TERM 30 YEAR SUPPORT With this in mind, we view a decent retracement lower as potentially offering medium-term scope for USD/CHF long positioning, although we remain wary of issues in the Eurozone periphery which have been responsible for the extreme pricing we see now. We await the appropriate short-term set up.
USD/CHF quarterly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Await signal.
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USD/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CAD USD/CAD
USD/CAD (Daily)
USD/CAD (Weekly )

15 August, 2011 Unwinding beneath 1.0000 (parity).
BULLISH REVERSAL PATTERN EXTENDS HIGHER USD/CADs accelerated recovery is finally unwinding, having reached that all-important 1.0000 parity level. However, expect to see further unwinding into near-term support at 0.9751 and 0.9670, before a resumption higher. Our long position has been activated, favouring a major upsurge into 1.0210 plus. Elsewhere, EUR/CAD is still also unwinding from overbought condition, having recently accelerated above its 200-day MA. Key resistance at 1.4379
MAJOR LOW (0.9446)
200-dMA (0.9814)
(June swing high) is likely to hold. Further inter-market confluence is also found on CHF/CAD which is
REVERSAL PATTERN
USD/CAD daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

MAJOR RESISTANCE CHF/CAD (Daily)
continuing to unwind sharply from extremely overbought conditions, having triggered a bearish reversal pattern.
USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
50% (1.3466) 61.8% (1.3379)
200-dMA (1.3676)
200-dMA (1.0932) EUR/CAD (Daily)
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
LONG 3: 0.9960, Obj: 1.00601.02101.0670, Stop: 0.9810
EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/USD
AUD/USD (Daily 1 YEAR)

15 August, 2011
TD EXHAUSTION SELL SIGNALS TD RISK (1.0935) TD RISK (1.1102)
AUD/USD
Sharp decline unwinds from 1.0000 (parity).

AUD/USDs sharp decline is unwinding after reaching key level at 1.0000 (parity). We are watching for good sell trade setups on a pending bounce. The current oversold bounce is likely to hold for a few sessions and we would look to sell into this for a resumption back into 1.0000 and 0.9706.
200-DMA (1.0305)
Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar. The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320. The Aussie dollar is unwinding against the Japanese yen, following its sharp
AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/NZD (Daily) 200-DMA CAPS BEAR MKT AUD/JPY (Daily)
pattern breakout which extended beneath key support at 80.42 (61.8% Fib).
13
TD EXHAUSTION SELL SIGNAL
The move adds to current risk aversion in the global financial community.
AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

38.2% (84.09) 50% (82.25) 61.8% (80.42) 200-DMA (84.04)
BREAKOUT ADDS TO RISK AVERSION

Sell stop 3: 1.0070, Obj: 0.97050.95400.8770, Stop: 1.0310
KEY SUPPORT 1.2319 / 1.2100
AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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GBP/JPY GBP/JPY
50-week MA

15 August, 2011 Minor bounce from recent trend lows.
GBP/JPY remains bearish after its rebound stalled around resistance coming in from the 200 day moving average (currently at 131.32). However, we are now seeing a minor bounce from the recent trend lows carved out at 123.30. Longer-term we remain biased to a return to the region near 190.00, although any attempt at long positioning needs to be driven by further evidence on the short-term structure that is suggestive of extended gains in the hourlydaily timeframe at the very least.
GBP/JPY weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Awaiting signal.
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GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY EUR/JPY
200-dMA

15 August, 2011 Intervention driven bounce stalls
EUR/JPY is back on the defensive after the BOJ intervention led bounce stalled. We have seen a test of the 200 day moving average (currently at 133.80), which has thus far been met by supply, with a relapse back below the trading range of the last few weeks. A sustained break over 114.18 is required to suggest an end to the downphase that was initiated from 117.74. With this in mind we look to see if a push back over the 50 week moving average, (currently at 113.51), can be achieved. Failure to do so will warn of a fresh bout of weakness.
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP We await the formation of short-term structure to assist us in trade direction.
EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP EUR/GBP
200-dMA

15 August, 2011 Meets initial demand at the base of a possible daily channel.
EUR/GBP peaked at 0.9084 recently, potentially marking the end of the rising phase seen since 0.8285. After testing the 200 day moving average last week, this being our nearterm target, we have seen a minor recovery higher within a possible rising daily channel. While above 0.8643 a continuation of this recovery remains favoured. We also note that a push under 0.8611 is required to break down the current longer-term bullish structure.
EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
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EUR/CHF EUR/CHF
200-dMA

15 August, 2011 Seeing an oversold rebound.
EUR/CHF is seeing an oversold rebound from fresh all-time lows. We note that the yields on Periphery government bond spreads have fallen from their highs. In particular Spanish and Italian 10 year government bond yields are now trading around 5% which should be supportive near term for EUR/CHF.
However, the question still remains as to how long the ECB can maintain yields at or below current levels, considering the size of the Italian bond market. As mentioned in earlier reports, a sustained break over 6% in
Spanish and Italian 10 year yields could potentially cause serious funding EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP issues in both of these nations. Maintaining these yields under 6% in the absence of any real improvements may prove a step too far for the ECB. While under 1.1374 our bias remains firmly lower. A move back over EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP 1.1892 is required to end our bearish bias.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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Await fresh signal.
EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GOLD
GOLD Daily (April 2010-2011)

15 August, 2011
EXHAUSTION PATTERN
GOLD
RISK ZONE
Gold's bearish pattern weighs, amidst overbought conditions.

Exited at 1730. Gold bearish pattern weighs, amidst extremely overbought conditions (which has exhibited major divergences across our key momentum indicators). We watching to open a sell trade setup in anticipation of a potential correction over the multi-dayweek. Short-term weakness in gold prices is also taking place against several key currencies (including FX Majors; EUR, GBP and commodity-driven AUD &
III
10 consecutive Higher Closes
ZAR). Interestingly, Gold is finally rallying in CHF terms, having just broken out of a multi-month consolidation pattern. We see this as a potential negative signal for the yellow metal, as investors unwind safe-haven flows from the recently competitive CHF and related proxies. In terms of the big picture, we continue to watch price activity which has
TREND CHANNEL
(12 YEARS) GOLD in USD GOLD in EUR
surged above its 12-year trend-channel. The parabolic move also recently developed a unique long-term DeMark exhaustion signal, which coincides with an important cycle on Gold (illustrated on the large chart). Keeping all of this in mind, the current bearish pattern has an increased risk
GOLD in CHF
to offer setbacks into of near-term support at 1720.00 and 1640.40 (recent low). A break beneath here would warn of a sharper reversal lower through the previous psychological level at 1600.00. Only a sustained close above the record highs at 1814.95 would offer higher extensions into 2000.00.
GOLD in AUD GOLD in ZAR
II
GOLD Weekly LOG Chart (1999-2011)

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY Exited at 1730.
Gold daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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Gold daily, weekly chart and Liquidity COT Readings, Bloomberg Finance LP
SILVER SILVER
Silver (Daily)
TARGET 2 (43.1136/43.8477)

15 August, 2011
TD EXHAUSTION SELL SIGNALS
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High!
13
Sharp bearish reversal continues to weigh.

Silvers recent sharp bearish reversal pattern continues to weigh, while also signaling an important divergence from Gold. Only a push back above 42.2300 (recent high) will expose our next target zone at 43.1136-43.8477. Near-term support can be found at 38.2100 (20 July low). A break here would trigger downside risk into 34.0519 (200-dMA).
th
13
50% (41.0513)
200 dMA (34.1853)
38.2% (32.3135) Gold/Silver Ratio 50% (26.9150)
Key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bull market) and would still mean that silvers long-term uptrend remains intact.
We also continue to watch silvers relative performance against gold, which is currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.
13 YEAR LEVEL UNWINDING 37% FROM OVERSOLD TERRITORY
37%
61.8% (21.5165)
OVER PATTERN
30 YEAR BASE
BULL MARKET FROM 1999
Silver Monthly (since 1980)

Await Trade Sell Setup below 37.0000.
Spot Silver daily, weekly, Bloomberg Finance LP

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LEGAL TERMS
constitutes a solicitation or LEGALNo information published sell any investment instrument, offer, or recommendation, to buy or to effect TERMSany transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.

15 August, 2011 Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.
DISCLAIME
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision.
DISCLAIME
Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK
All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. www.migbank.com You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before 14
making any investment decision.
CONTACT CONTACT

15 August, 2011
Howard Friend www.migbank.com Chief Market Strategist h.friend@migbank.com
Ron William Technical Strategist r.william@migbank.com
Bjioy Kar Technical Strategist b.kar@migbank.com
MIG BANK info@migbank.com www.migbank.com
14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Tel.+41 32 722 81 00 15

Daily Technical Report: Mark ET

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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

STRATEGY/ POSITION Sell Stop 3

ENTRY LEVEL 1.4060

USD/CAD AUD/USD GBP/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/GBP

LONG 3 Sell Stop 3

Bijoy Kar, CFA

EUR/CHF GOLD SILVER

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES