Disturbing climate changes in Kashmir

Firdous Syed First Published : 22 Mar 2010 12:08:00 AM IST Last Updated : 22 Mar 2010 01:24:54 AM IST

For some years now, Jammu and Kashmir has had erratic weather. Traditionally Kashmir had four seasons: spring, summer, autumn and winter. For a decade or so the distinction is blurring fast. It is either summer or winter. Spring and autumn have almost vanished. Usually March is the rainiest month in the Valley, with an average rainfall of around 107 mm. This March there has been only 43.9 mm rain recorded. Because of scanty rainfall temperatures have risen, giving the feel of summer. The meteorological department records say Marchs maximum temperature is around 12-15 degrees Celsius; on March 19, the temperature in Srinagar hit 26.4 degrees. Due to the unusual rise in day temperatures the snow on mountains started melting three weeks earlier. This has caused farmers anxiety. Paddy sowing is two months away, snow has started melting early, so will there be enough water during the summer? Some arid (Kandi) areas of Budgam and Baramulla district are already experiencing immense shortage of drinking water. Global warming is an international problem; scientists are yet to reach a consensus on its impact on weather patterns. From a laymans perspective, Kashmirs environment has undergone tremendous changes over the years. Indiscriminate deforestation has wrecked havoc in Kashmirs eco-system. Prof R D Gupta, former dean of Sher-e-Kashmir Agricultural University (SKUST), has pointed out: Heavy deforestation has brought about a change in climate, recession of glaciers and baring of slopes in the catchments or water sheds of the rivers, Jhelum, Chenab and the Tawi. He further elaborates: The peak normal flow of water in the river Jhelum has been found to the order of 15-120 thousand cusecs. However, due to frequent droughts, the level of water in the river Jhelum has been reduced to one-tenth of peak discharge. Kolhai, the glacier which feeds the river Lider, main tributary of Jehlum, has shrunk 18 percent during past three decades due to unprecedented increase in temperature and deforestation. Scientific studies of the glacier reveal that due to human interference the glacier has developed several crevasses and cracks over the years. Glaciologists warn that if the glaciers meltdown completely, Kashmir would become a desert. That may sound a bit alarmist; nevertheless the effects of climate change in Kashmir are being felt. Action Aid India a few years ago conducted a study on climatic changes in J & K. Some of its findings are disturbing: the water level in almost all streams and rivers in Kashmir has decreased by approximately two-thirds during the last 40 years. According to this study, less availability of water has impacted food production, as deficit in food production in Kashmir region has reached 40 per cent, while the deficit in 1980 was only 23 per cent. However the study misses an important point: the Valleys population has almost doubled during last 30 years, while food production has marginally increased in the corresponding period. No doubt a crisis is in the making. In 1947, it was assumed that per person 5,000 cubic metres of water was available, this is going to fall below 700 cubic metres by 2025.

It is going to be a crisis: the population is growing at an alarming rate; the water table has come down drastically. Accessibility of water is not solely diminishing due to increase in its usage. Owing to climatic changes taking place at a rapid pace, less water is available now. Last summer water scarcity triggered riots in many cities in India. Conflict over water is not confined to societies within. Presently water is an irritant between India and Pakistan; it is going to be source of conflict between the two unfriendly neighbours. Under the Indus Water Treaty, Pakistan has a right over three rivers: Jhelum, Indus and Chenab. Pakistan views the building of dams on the Chenab with suspicion. The construction of the Baglihar power project was opposed by Pakistan on the grounds that it would allow India capacity to regulate water flow. The dispute finally was resolved by a World Bank appointed arbitrator. Normal discharge in the Chenab used to be 5, 48,532 cusecs during the summer months against the minimum 34,836 cusecs in winters. According to some press reports, river flows from India to Pakistan have slowly declined is borne out by data on both sides the average monthly flows for September have nearly halved between 1999 and 2009. Pakistan accuses India for decrease in water flow; however Baglihar was commissioned several years after 1999. The Indus water basin is a lifeline for Pakistan; it has built a major irrigation system, the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) on it. This system irrigates 45 million acres of its farm land. Pakistans 23 per cent of GDP, 70 per cent of total export earnings is dependent upon IBIS; it also provides 54 per cent employment to its labour force. It is only March; two major dams on IBIS in Pakistan, Tarbela and Mangla have reached the dead level. It is not only Hafiz Saeed who is talking of a jihad over water. Many Pakistani politicians both in power and in opposition have threatened war with India over water. War mongering might be a diversionary tactic to deflect attention from the building tensions between upper riparian Punjab and lower riparian Sind. What cannot be discounted is that water of Kashmirs rivers is not anymore enough to quench the thirst of both India and Pakistan. Even if two warring neighbours are sincere about resolving their disputes, the most difficult is not Kashmir anymore. Will the dispute over water be irresolvable? Life without water is unimaginable; war over water is a real possibility. firdoussyed@yahoo.com