Stock Market Trends & Observations 09-02-11

Stock Market Trends & Observations
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Stock Market Trends Weekly Update 09/02/11
Posted September 2, 2011 by Bob Categories: WEEKLY UPDATE
WEEKLY UPDATE FOLLOWS THE EXPLANATIONS WAVE COUNTS SIMPLIFIED There are 3 peaks to a completed wave count. A reversal of trend takes place after a completed wave count. Often times its as simple as counting 3 bumps on a chart . . . Other times, not so easy. In a downtrend the same rules apply except you are counting 3 valleys instead of 3 peaks. Each step must stay conned to a channel. Laying a pen or pencil on the chart will help you visualize the channel. As the trend progresses, all of the steps that make up the overall current trend will also be conned to a larger channel. When the market breaks a channel (regardless of the perceived wave count), the current step has been terminated. A single wave may sub-divide into another 3 waves. I will also call this an extension. When this happens (1) the trend is still intact, (2) the channel has widened and (3) instead of a total of 3 steps, there will be 5 steps. (The charts will help you understand this concept.) Sometimes I will use the terms step and wave interchangeably, but usually a wave is considered to be larger than a step. Wave Counts In Charts Numbers of the same color represent steps within the same wave. For instance, red 1, red 2 and red 3 are steps within the same wave. Different colored numbers represent steps in totally separate waves. For instance, a red 1 occurs in one wave while a blue 1 occurs in a totally separate wave (refer to charts for examples). Reading the glossary helps a great deal in the understanding of this blog. Glossary Link If the charts (or links) dont work, please copy & paste the following address into your browser. http://stockmarketobservations.wordpress.com/ ************************************************************************************ CLICK ON CHARTS TO ENLARGE Short Term Uptrend August 9th To Present
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Step 2 Underway August 19, 2011 To Present Step 2 Correction Underway Last Action Status Buy Signal On 8/29/11 Renewed Buy Signal Possible
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09-03-11 SHORT TERM SHORT TERM COMMENTS Read the earlier comments from Friday, September 2nd. Daily Stock Market Update 09/02/11 Dow Industrials since the July 2010 low with the perceived wave counts. There is also an alternate wave count that shows the market only completing two steps down since the peak. The alternate is not considered likely as some indexes clearly show three steps down since February.
Dow Industrials since the Wednesday peak with the perceived wave counts.
Dow Industrials showing todays action with ner detail. Its possible that we made a low at the close today BUT there is no indication that we got a reversal at the close. If we have a reversal at the close, we should rally into step 3 counting from the August 19th low. Well watch for a reversal on Monday afternoon when the futures open. This Monday is labor day and the market is closed.
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************************************************************************************ Intermediate Term Downtrend February 2011 To Present Step 3 Down Underway The rally that began in July 2010 is nished. The peak of that rally was May 2011 although some indexes peaked in February 2011. We are likely in step 3 down of the decline that began in February 2011. On the ip side we could have an extended wave count decline, which means 5 steps down instead of 3.
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09-03-11 INTERMEDIATE TERM Long Term Uptrend Mar 2009 To Present Step 2 Up (of 3) Completed From the bottom in March 2009 Large step one up ended in May 2010 Large step two up ended in May 2011. (notice a pattern?) Large step three up will begin when the decline beginning in February/May is nished. Large step three may exceed the October 2007 peak. This seems like a possibility when looking at the Very Long Term megaphone scenario.
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09-03-11 LONG TERM Very Long Term Downtrend Jan 2000 To Present Step 2 Down (of 3) Completed
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09-03-11 VERY LONG TERM VERY LONG TERM COMMENTS We have 3 possibilities for the future. We have entered a very wide swinging market (megaphone formation) similar to that of 1966 to 1974. During that era we had three bear markets with two intervening bull market rallies. Each bear market had a lower low than the previous bear. The intervening bull market rallies saw new all time highs before the next bear market began. We also have formed a huge head and shoulders formation since 1998. If this formation is valid, the downside measurement calls for a bottom around Dow Jones Industrials 1,000. Since 2000 we have had two bear markets, 2000 to 2003 and 2007 to 2009. Like 1966 to 1974, the recovery from the rst bear market saw a new all time high (2007 peak). Its possible that we may experience another all time high during the present recovery period. This would support the megaphone formation. A failure to make new highs would support the head and shoulders argument. In both formations the conclusion of the present recovery would call for a third and nal bear market. An estimated time for the conclusion of the nal bear market is approximately 2018. The lesser downside target of both formations is the megaphone formation as it likely calls for a bottom 1,000 to 2,000 points below the 2009 low, which would be around Dow 5,000. In the head and shoulders formation the measurement calls for a bottom around Dow Jones Industrials 1,000. This is almost an unimaginable event as I try to visualize the fundamentals involved. If this did happen, everything that could go wrong would have to go wrong. The reasons range from the absurd to the absurd. This scenario is so dark that it doesnt seem possible but nevertheless, the head and
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shoulders formation is there and will be waiting until we pierce the all-time highs of October 2007. Remember these are simply possible scenarios and are not embedded in fact. Whatever the outcome, it never hurts to be a little cautious with some of your money. But in the worst case scenario, everything that we take for granted as being safe . . . . would not be safe. This is something to never forget in the event things go very badly. Hopefully we will never have to think about worst case scenarios other than to have a good laugh at them presently. ************************************************************************************ EDSON GOULD Edson Gould, Premier Stock Market Strategist I have posted some of his ideas and writing on this blog. He had a profound inuence on the development of my techniques and proprietary indicators. I will post more of his writing at a later date. After 40 years I still have many of the publications from his advisory service, Findings & Forecasts. Edson Gould Link ************************************************************************************ TRANSACTION SIGNALS ALL ACTIONABLE SIGNALS (buy or sell) ARE ONLY FOR SHORT TERM TIME FRAMES. These signals are not designed for intermediate or long term time frames BUT . . . . . After a short term buy signal, long term tax status can be achieved by a continuation of the upward trend, which causes short term actions to morph into long term holdings. See more details in the glossary under Taxes, Futures Contracts and Money Management. Glossary Link TRANSACTION RECORD In this blog a warning of an impending bottom (or top) is often issued well in advance of the formal buy or sell date. This allows thoughtful consideration prior to a formal action signal. To get a sense of how this works, you should read a few days prior to a formal buy/sell signal. I often buy/sell in my personal account based on the early warnings. The transaction record near stock market bottoms will show that I am very skittish and usually remain so until the new direction is well underway. BUY AUGUST 30, 2011 SELL AUGUST 30, 2011 Stopped out BUY AUGUST 29, 2011 SELL AUGUST 25, 2011 BUY AUGUST 23, 2011 SELL AUGUST 1, 2011
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BUY JUNE 23, 2011 ************************************************************************************ MY CHART LINK (updated constantly) This link has my charts, which are always current and constantly updated during market trading. They dont lag market trading by 15 minutes which is true of many charts. There are 9 pages of index charts. Each page consists of (1) the same stock market indexes, and (2) the same time frame. The time represented by each vertical bar is the same on each page but increases in length on each succeeding page. The vertical bars on the 9 pages ranges from 1 minute to 1 month. The nal pages of these charts consists of growth stocks. These are stocks that have constantly risen in price since 1990. One qualication is that they must not be severely damaged in a bear market so they cant rise to signicant new highs in the following bull market. The growth stocks show daily market action for the last 3 years and weekly prices since 1990. This gives a good perspective to how they have behaved in the immediate past (daily charts) and how they behaved during good and bad times (weekly charts). INDEX Page 1 Indicators (shorter time frames) Page 2 Indexes With 1 Minute Bars Page 3 Indexes With 5 Minute Bars Page 4 Indexes With 15 Minute Bars Page 5 Indexes With 30 Minute Bars Page 6 Indexes With 60 Minute Bars Page 7 Indexes With Daily Bars (shorter) Page 8 Indexes With Daily Bars (longer) Page 9 Indexes With Weekly Bars Page 10 Indexes With Monthly Bars Page 11 to Page 12 Indicators (longer time frames) Page 13 to End Growth Stocks (daily and weekly time frames)
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Daily Stock Market Update One 09/02/11

Posted September 2, 2011 by Bob Categories: DAILY UPDATE
DAILY UPDATE FOLLOWS THE EXPLANATIONS WAVE COUNTS SIMPLIFIED There are 3 peaks to a completed wave count. A reversal of trend takes place after a completed wave count of 3 peaks. Often times its as simple as counting 3 bumps on a chart . . . Other times, not so easy. In a downtrend the same rules apply except you are counting 3 valleys instead of 3 peaks. Each step must stay conned to a channel. Laying a pen or pencil on the chart will help you visualize the channel. As the trend progresses, all of the steps that make up the overall current trend will also be conned to a channel. When the market breaks a channel (regardless of the perceived wave count), the current step has been terminated. A single wave may sub-divide into another 3 waves. I will also call this an extension. When this happens (1) the trend is still intact, (2) the channel has widened and (3) instead of a total of 3 steps, there will have 5 steps. (The charts will help you understand this concept.) Sometimes I will use the terms step and wave interchangeably, but usually a wave is considered to be larger than a step. Wave Counts In Charts Numbers of the same color represent steps within the same wave. For instance, red 1, red 2 and red 3 are steps within the same wave. Different colored numbers represent steps in totally separate waves. For instance, a red 1 occurs in one wave while a blue 1 occurs in a totally separate wave (refer to charts for examples). Reading the glossary helps a great deal in the understanding of this blog. Glossary Link If the charts (or links) dont work, please copy & paste the following address into your browser. http://stockmarketobservations.wordpress.com/ ************************************************************************************ CLICK ON CHARTS TO ENLARGE Short Term Up trend Since August 9th Step 2 Underway August 19, 2011 To Present Step 2 Correction Underway Last Action Status Buy Signal On 8/29/11 Renewed Buy Signal Possible
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The rst chart shows the presumed wave count on the downside beginning at a peak on Wednesday. If this count is correct we should rally a little bit and then decline later today into a 5th wave bottom. This could work exactly as I said yesterday: I might look for a bottom late in the day on Friday but it all depends on the count. So look for a bottom just before the close today. Today is a 90% down day and thats not good because it shows intense selling. The channel is at its most extreme width but it is still in effect. It is not unusual for a last low to widen the channel a little bit so that would not overly concern me. More free fall is something that would concern me and that could create a sell signal. A probing of todays lows in the 5th step could create a renewed buy signal. In the second chart is a less than favorable wave count that could produce a lower low than August 9th. This is a possibility that one must be aware of but at the moment I favor a rally back to the step 2 highs. A free fall would mean this wave count is valid. Free fall could also have severe implications for the longer term picture. We will wait and see about that. Worst case scenario is that we have begun another probe (or penetration) of the bottom area on August 9th. Best case scenario is that the bottom of the correction following step 2 up is almost nished and we will begin step 3 up either very late today or Monday. I may be a renewed buyer late in the day today. May is the operative word here. SP 500 Futures, 5 Minute Bars
09-02-11 SP500 FUTURES 5 MIN BARS DJ Industrials, 5 Minute Bars Also showing a less favorable wave count.
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09-02-11 DJI 5 MIN BARS

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Daily Stock Market Update 09/01/11

Posted September 1, 2011 by Bob Categories: DAILY UPDATE
DAILY UPDATE FOLLOWS THE EXPLANATIONS WAVE COUNTS SIMPLIFIED There are 3 peaks to a completed wave count. A reversal of trend takes place after a completed wave count of 3 peaks. Often times its as simple as counting 3 bumps on a chart . . . Other times, not so easy. In a downtrend the same rules apply except you are counting 3 valleys instead of 3 peaks. Each step must stay conned to a channel. Laying a pen or pencil on the chart will help you visualize the channel. As the trend progresses, all of the steps that make up the overall current trend will also be conned to a channel. When the market breaks a channel (regardless of the perceived wave count), the current step has been terminated. A single wave may sub-divide into another 3 waves. I will also call this an extension. When this happens (1) the trend is still intact, (2) the channel has widened and (3) instead of a total of 3 steps, there will have 5 steps. (The charts will help you understand this concept.) Sometimes I will use the terms step and wave interchangeably, but usually a wave is considered to be larger than a step. Wave Counts In Charts Numbers of the same color represent steps within the same wave. For instance, red 1, red 2 and red 3 are steps within the same wave. Different colored numbers represent steps in totally separate waves. For instance, a red 1 occurs in one wave while a blue 1 occurs in a totally separate wave (refer to charts for examples). Reading the glossary helps a great deal in the understanding of this blog. Glossary Link If the charts (or links) dont work, please copy & paste the following address into your browser. http://stockmarketobservations.wordpress.com/ ************************************************************************************ CLICK ON CHARTS TO ENLARGE Short Term Uptrend August 19, 2011 To Present
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Step 2 Is Finished Last Action Status Buy Signal On 8/29/11
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09-01-11 INDEXES 30 MIN BARS We nished step 2 up and are still correcting. The monthly employment data comes out early tomorrow and the expectation is that it will not be good. With the bad news the futures will probably sink further before the open. I might look for a bottom late in the day on Friday but it all depends on the count. Usually the correction following step 2 is larger and longer than the correction following step 1. Presently it looks about the same size as the step 1 correction. In the rst chart are lines outlining the expected channel with the dotted line representing an approximate extreme. The dotted line is about 200 Dow points below todays close. The dotted line also marks the approximate highs of step 1 around the 11,250 level. Best case scenario is that we will begin step 3 up soon. Worst case scenario is that we are about to retest the bottom again. I had expressed thoughts yesterday that a retest seemed a possibility. A few other people that I follow are thinking along the same lines. Terry Laundry has a small T (uptrend) thats good until September 14. After that he thinks we will retest the bottom. Although its not engraved in stone, I have no problems with this scenario. Jeff Saut also believes that we will retest the bottom. He also believes the high and low for the year are in, May 2nd high and August 9th low. He expects to nish the year near the top of the range.
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Posted August 31, 2011 by Bob Categories: DAILY UPDATE
Daily update follows the explanations. WAVE COUNTS SIMPLIFIED There are 3 peaks to a completed wave count. A reversal of trend takes place after a completed wave count of 3 peaks. Often times its as simple as counting 3 bumps on a chart . . . Other times, not so easy. In a downtrend the same rules apply except you are counting 3 valleys instead of 3 peaks. Each step must stay conned to a channel. Laying a pen or pencil on the chart will help you visualize the channel. As the trend progresses, all of the steps that make up the overall current trend will also be conned to a relatively larger channel. When the market breaks a channel (regardless of the perceived wave count), that step has been (1) terminated and the market has begun a counter-trend move, or (2) the step has sub-divided. A sub-divided wave means the trend is still intact but the channel has widened and instead of 3 steps, you will have 5 steps. (The charts will help you understand this concept.)
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Sometimes I will use the terms step and wave interchangeably, but usually a wave is considered to be larger than a step. Charts (wave counts) Numbers of the same color represent the same wave. For instance, red 1, 2 and 3 are steps in the same wave. Different colored numbers represent totally separate waves. For instance, a red 1 occurs in one wave while a blue 1 occurs in totally separate wave (refer to charts for examples). If you believe that wave counting is voodoo, please read along for awhile and reserve judgment until later. Decades ago I had thought wave counting was too complex and had too many exceptions to be useful. But through the years I originated my own easy version of the wave count. Reading the glossary helps a great deal in the understanding of this blog. Glossary Link If the charts (or links) dont work, please copy & paste the following address into your browser. http://stockmarketobservations.wordpress.com/ ************************************************************************************ Short Term Uptrend August 9, 2011 To Present Step 2 . . . of Step 2 Is Underway (see chart) Action Status Buy Signal On 8/29/11 The rst chart shows my best estimate for the present wave count. If this count is correct, I would expect the correction that began today to run a bit longer and then rally into the 3rd step up. A larger correction would then follow similar to that following the peak on August 24th. The lower line of the channel has an assumed placement. Lowest positioning of this line could emanate from the low on August 26th.
08-31-11 DJ INDUSTRIALS 5 MINUTE BARS Referring to the second chart. If we make a signicant break about the July peak, that would signify a move away from the bottoming area. The July peak is still much higher and the market remains
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skittish. But if all is well I would expect the market to break away from the bottom area before the termination of the third step up. Not wanting to worry anybody, but things like the next paragraph always bother me. This possibility of unnished business makes me edgy around market bottoms. If the possibility is true, I should be able to sniff out the situation before things turn radical. And if unnished business does take place, there can be the satisfaction that the horror show is really over. The labeling of the wave count in the following chart appears simple. The only mistake possible would be; Did the top occur in early March or early April? If the peak occurred in early April, we would have completed two steps down. The remaining step, step three would be the termination of the 2011 min-bear. If this is true we could be setting up a late September or the classic October conclusion. More bear markets have ended in October than any other month.
08-31-11 TSX 60 MINUTE BARS

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Posted August 30, 2011 by Bob Categories: DAILY UPDATE
WAVE COUNTS SIMPLIFIED There are 3 peaks (or valleys) to a completed wave count. A signicant reversal takes place after a completed wave count of 3 peaks (or valleys). Often times its as simple as counting 3 bumps on a chart . . . Other times, not so easy. Each step must stay conned to a channel. Laying a pen or pencil on the chart will help you visualize the channel. The 3 steps that make up a completed wave count will also be conned to a relatively larger channel. When the market breaks a channel (regardless of size), that step (or wave) has been terminated and the market has begun a counter-trend move.
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If you believe that wave counting is voodoo, please read along for awhile and reserve judgment until later. Reading the glossary helps a great deal in the understanding of this blog. Glossary Link If the charts (or links) dont work, please copy & paste the following address into your browser. http://stockmarketobservations.wordpress.com/ ************************************************************************************ Short Term Uptrend August 9, 2011 To Present Step 2 Up Is Underway Action Status Buy Signal On 8/29/11 Today was a consolidation day after yesterdays surge in prices. It was disappointing in that it wasnt a solid follow-through from yesterday but its not unusual after a 90% up day to consolidate. Heres a chart that shows an upward diagonal forming. I would like to see prices breakout of this formation on the upside, otherwise it could mean lower prices and possibly another stab at the bottom area. Dropping back into the prior lows and holding could also be a renewed signal for higher prices. Another correction scenario is a decline back into the area of last Fridays low. The best alternative is higher prices. Im not a seller here but Im watching carefully for a break of the lower line. Well see what Wednesday brings us.
08-30-11 SP 500 5 MINUTE BARS

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Wall Street Quotes
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The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns. Well-managed portfolios start with this precept. Benjamin Graham The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell. John Templeton Buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets. Old French Proverb Rule #1: Never lose money. Rule #2: Never forget rule #1 Warren Buffett The four most dangerous words in investing are "This time it's different". John Templeton "This time it's different" was prevalent during the bubble of 2000. In 1929 it was called "New Economics". Bob History always repeats, only the details change. Edson Gould If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks. John (Jack) Bogle Stock are bought on expectations, not facts. Gerald Loeb Emotions are your worst enemy in the stock market. Don Hays P/E ratio - The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing. Anonymous Herd Mentality Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one. Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds Herd Mentality Cases such as Tulipomania in 1624--when Tulip bulbs traded at a higher price than gold--suggest the existence of what I would dub "Mackay's Law of Mass Action:" when it comes to the effect of social behavior on the intelligence of individuals, 1+1 is often less than 2, and sometimes considerably less than 0. Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
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I made money by selling too soon. Bernard Baruch If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Bernard Baruch The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible. Bernard Baruch The hardest part of a bull market is staying on. A bubble is a bull market in which you don't have a position. A buy and hold strategy is a short term trade that went wrong. October, this is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, June, December, August and February. Mark Twain Economists have predicted 14 of the last 3 recessions. Market Correction - The day after you buy stocks. In 2008 stocks were a good buy . . . . . Goodbye Mercedes, goodbye yacht, goodbye vacation home, goodbye . . . Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. John Maynard Keynes Money talks, but all mine ever says is "goodbye" Don't gamble. Take all of your savings and buy some good stock and hold it until it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. Will Rogers Return of principal is more important than the return on principal. Hope is your worst enemy in the market. Don't catch a falling knife. Spend at least as much time researching a stock as you would choosing a refrigerator. Peter Lynch When you realize that you are riding a dead horse the best strategy is to dismount. Sioux Indian Proverb Dont ever make the mistake of telling the market it is wrong. James Dines Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street
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never changes, because human nature never changes. Jesse Livermore Let Wall Street have a nightmare and the whole country has to help get them back in bed again Will Rogers Bulls makes money, bears makes money, pigs get slaughtered. My Grandfather Never buy a stock that won't go up in a bull market. Never sell a stock that won't go down in a bear market. Wall Street is a street with a river at one end and a graveyard at the other. Never check stock prices on a Friday, it could spoil your weekend. Nobody is more bearish than a sold-out bull. The public is right during the trends but wrong at both ends. Humphrey Neill Those who can, do. Those who cant, teach. Those who cant teach, work for the government. Never sell a dull market short. I sell euphoria and buy panic. The way he determines that is to wait until prices start gapping in the charts. Gapping on the upside is euphoria, while gapping on the downside is panic. Jimmy Rogers courtesy of Jeff Saut "Cut your losses and let your prots run." Don't marry a stock. Every stock must be sold. Often times WHEN you take a position can be more important than WHAT you take a position in. Bob
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Observations of Stock Market Trends uses several proprietary technical indicators discovered by the author. The object of this blog is to notify you (preferably in advance) of the important tops and bottoms in the stock market. We know that's impossible, but nevertheless, it's attempted in this blog. The weekly overview of "Observations of Stock Market Trends" is published each weekend. A daily update is likely when I have something to say or we are near a stock market inection point. If you nd the blog interesting, please become a follower by entering your email address in the section "Email Subscription" (top of this column). You must also conrm your email subscription by clicking on
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The content on this blog is meant to be entertaining information and should not be construed as investment advice. No statement by the blog's author should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security, nancial instrument, or to participate in a trading or investment strategy. Any investment decision by anyone that results in losses or gains based on information from this blog is not the responsibility of the blog's author. The blog's author will make statements about certain investment vehicles and strategies, but It's simply the author expressing his opinion, or action, regarding his own investments. These opinions are never to be construed as investment advice.
About Me
With 55 years of studying and investing in the stock market, I am sharing these experiences and knowledge by writing a stock market blog. This blog relies on several unique and proprietary indicators. I have been correct at some of the biggest market turns in the last 40 years. I was short for most of 1973-1974, reversed course and became a buyer during the week before Christmas 1974. I was also short for most of the rst half of 1982 but became a buyer on August 4, 1982. This was ve days before the August 9, 1982 blast off on the historic bull market run of the 1980s and 1990s. In 1999 I began tolling the bell on the stock market knowing that the end was near (no one listened). In March 2003, prior to the beginning of the Iraq war I turned into a bull because I couldn't see one reason why I should buy stocks. Shortly after the October 2007 peak I became a seller and bear. Days prior to the March 2009 bottom, I bought stocks in anticipation of a very good rally that turned into a big bull run. In the later stages of the February-May 2011 topping process, I began warning of an important market correction. One man was responsible for my education, Edson Gould, the greatest technician that ever lived. After reading many of the books on stock market technical analysis, I found that all of these methods had high failure rates. I searched for a formula that worked consistently and in 1973 I subscribed to Edson Gould's "Findings & Forecasts". Here I struck gold with the master technician of the 20th century. Extending his methods I discovered several proprietary indicators that I use today. If you nd my observations of interest please add your email address to the section, "Email Subscription".
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Stock Market Trends &amp; Observations 09-02-11

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Stock Market Trends & Observations