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Robin Wilkin
Global Head of FX and Commodities Technical Strategy
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New York
Niall OConnor 001 212 834 5108
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EURUSD a base developed at the end of 2000, but fundamentals didnt become bullish till late 2002
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OBSERVATION
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Predictive techniques Elliott wave Pattern Analysis Candlesticks Mechanical techniques RSI Stochastics Moving Averages
We combine all these methods into a powerful predictive tool that can be applied across all the markets.
If you dont know where you are going , youll probably end up somewhere else
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Predictive techniques
Elliott Wave Theory:
Background Method developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott which argues that social or crowd behaviour trends and then reverses in recognisable patterns. Technique further developed by Robert Prechter after Elliotts death Details of the principle Trends are identified by a sequence of waves termed impulse waves, which are numbered 1-5, and a shorter corrective sequence of waves which are lettered A-C There are also 9 different degrees of scale, spanning short and long term, from Grand Supercycle to Sub-minuette
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Basic Tenets
Movements in the direction of the trend develop into five wave patterns Counter-trend movements display three wave structures
Elliott Wave Analysis assesses probable outcomes by determining the current position within the larger pattern
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1
2 c 4 1 a 4 2 B
3
5
3 5
2 c
3 5
1
5 b 3 1
a c
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Vocabulary
Impulse Waves -- movements in the direction of the trend
Fibonacci Ratio -- a mathematical ratio that often occurs between related waves.
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CORRECT
5 3
4 1
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CORRECT
Three is not the shortest
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3 4 1
2
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CORRECT:
iv does not overlap i
v iii
i ii
iv
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5 3 1
4 2
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Guideline of Equality
(1) 5 3 4
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Guideline of Alternation
5
Four is sideways
4 1
4 1 2
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4 1
(2)
Previous 4th wave
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Popular Corrections.
C
5 3 b a c C a
5 A 3 1 4 2 1
A 4
Triangle
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5 3 A 4 1 C B
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First buy opportunity occurs on the pullback in wave 2. FX the last couple of years has more often than not been a shallow and quick correction
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2 ii 1 i C A
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iii v 3
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4 1
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c a
b 1
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A c
b ii 1 4
a a
i iii
iv 2 c B
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USDNOK
EURNOK
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iii i B D i
ii v iii iv
iv ii
E
i
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Mechanical Techniques
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Mechanical techniques
Oscillators
RSI - (Relative Strength Index) Uses an average of periods higher and lower closes to provide a number which shows extremes of market buying/selling power by using deviations outside of a band. Stochastic Comprises 2 lines, one leading (the %K) line and one lagging (the %D line) that provide buy and sell signals through deviation outside of a band. When the 2 lines cross, at the outside of the band, then this is a strong signal. Numbers are derived from measuring the latest, lowest and highest closes within 5 periods. Confirmation Both indicators give a similar reading. Divergence Condition where prices register a further extreme print, while the oscillators do not make a similar extreme reading.
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Japanese Candlesticks
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EMOTION
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Greed
Confidence Complacency
Hope
Fear
* The Trade *
Anger?
Panic
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The checklist
Plan your Trades. Trade your plans Keep records of your trading results Keep a positive attitude, no matter how much you loose Dont take the market home Continually set higher trading goals Successful traders buy into bad news and sell into good news Successful traders are not afraid to buy high and sell low Continually strive for patience, perseverance, determination and rational action Limit your losses - use stops Never cancel a stop order after you have placed it Place your stops the time you make the trade Never get into the market because you are too anxious because of waiting beware of into wishing over intuition Avoid getting in or out of the market too often Losses make the trader studious - not profits. Take advantage of every loss to improve your knowledge of market action
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Backgammon for . - Bill Robertie (wanna learn about probabilities and luck versus skill this is the game)
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