Sep 4th Sep 10th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 18

Elite Global Trading

Forex Weekly Commentary

Fundamental Outlook
Monday. We may see some US Dollar strength to start the week, but do not expect it to continue, a move down to the lows again is expected, which will bring risk appetite back into play for the currency markets. Keep an eye on some key events this week starting with RBA Rate Decision on Tuesday early AM, BOJ has their Rate Decision on Tuesday night, the CAD has their Rate Decision on Wednesday, EUR and GBP have theirs on Thursday Morning. Should be an interesting week with all these rate decisions. None are expected to raise rates, with a much expected quiet tone across the board. A much expected busy month of September as most come back from summer vacations.

In this issue: GBPUSD AUDUSD NZDUSD EURCHF EURUSD EURJPY GBPJPY Event Risk Contact Info Disclaimer 5 4 3 1 2

The markets enjoyed a strong dollar move up last week. This current move up is expected to die out and make another move lower to finish it's long term bearish decline. We may have some volatility over the US Holiday for

UK Pound Sterling / United States Dollar

GBPUSD: The Pound has a dovish outlook from the BOE and does not expect any rate change this week. As this most current move down to 1.6132 from 1.6617 unravels we expect some congestion in the days to come with a possible rally up towards 1.6330 area before another move down to test the lows. If the 1.6100 area holds we expect another test of highs near 1.6700 and possible a move up towards 1.7000 area. With the current outlook looking bleak in the UK we do favor the downside towards 1.5700 over the month of September, but can't rule out anther strong move up, which would coincide with another bearish move for the US Dollar. We keep both as possibilities and will adapt as one of the opportunities unravels itself. Recommendation: Neutral Bias, looking for a rally in this current bearish move towards 1.6330 area. Another move down is likely before a bottom is found to support a stronger move up. We like looking at shorting after the rally finishes, if short term outlook turns bullish we will look to enter for a move up to the highs. Support sits at 1.6130, 1.6110, 1.6060, and 1.6000. Resistance stands at 1.6247, 1.6317, 1.6340 and 1.6375.

Sep 4th Sep 10th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 18

Elite Global Trading

Australian Dollar / United States Dollar

AUDUSD: The most recent move up towards 1.0765 has been a three wave rally, we are in a pullback from this move up, we look for the pullback to find support around 1.0600 1.0540 area before the move up continues to find a top, which is expected around 1.07801.0800. Recommendation: Bullish Bias, a pullback is expected to start the week off finding support between 1.0600-1.0540 area. Once support holds and is confirmed we do see this pair making another move up to find a top. Careful on playing the pullback in the longer move up, keep an eye on support levels.

New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) / United States Dollar

NZDUSD: The outlook for this pair looks very similar to the AUDUSD. The pair looks to make a pullback down towards .8400-.8340 area. Another move up towards .8600-.8650 is expected over the weeks to come before another move down to the lows of .7900 level. Recommendation: Bullish Bias, look for the pullback to finish around .8400 area and look for a long play back up to .8600 area before a much larger move down occurs.

Euro / Swiss Franc

EURCHF: All the CHF pairs are looking very similar. The past week we have had a massive drop from the tops looking at a 900 pip drop in the EURCHF last week, currently trading 200 pips up from last weeks low. The move down from the high does not look fully over yet, we do expect a rally to some higher resistance levels before another move down to some lower levels. The longer term look is for a move to go break most recent highs, but before that we do expect another bottom lower to be formed over the following weeks. Resistance is at 1.1233, 1.1315, 1.1371 and 1.1486. Support sits at 1.1165, 1.1060, 1.1000, 1.0900 and stronger support at 1.0794. Recommendation: Bearish Bias, with the SNB having the possibility of intervening at any point it is always a risk that needs to evaluated when trading the CHF pairs. We most likely will see a further move up towards resistance before another drop, you can play this rally or wait for a confirmed lower top to go short. If you do play this rally use support levels mentioned to place stops below and keep your awareness high of the resistance points.

Sep 4th Sep 10th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 18

Elite Global Trading

Euro / United States Dollar

EURUSD: This pair continues to trade within the triangle that has been unfolding since May. This range has been in connection of both the US and Euro zone state of affairs and crisis' that has been dealt with over the past several months, with continued uncertainty of a possible recession and debt crisis, the pair looks to continue to trade with-in this range for sometime moving forward. A break out below 1.3840 or above 1.4550 cannot be ruled out, but will most likely happen along with a strong fundamental move in either US or Euro zone. In the meantime respect the levels of support and resistance in this range while trading this pair, we look for further losses in this pair moving down towards support of 1.4150-1.4050. With these levels holding we will look for another move up towards resistance levels of 1.4315-50, 1.4440 area. Recommendation: Neutral Bias, Look for further downward movement over the next few days while the pair finds support. A move down to 1.4150, 1.4109 and 1.4050 is expected, pair should find support in these areas. Resistance on upside resides at 1.4277, 1.4350, 1.4380, 1.4440. The pair will be looking for a bottom, with a desired move back to highs in the days to come. A break and close below 1.3950 will give suspect to another move up and will build a case to a stronger move down towards the mid 1.3000's.

Euro / Japanese Yen

EURJPY: This pair has stayed with it's longer term bearish outlook and trades near lows of last month. We do see this pair accelerating it's downward move to retest the 108.00 level and a look to further lows near 106.00 area. Recommendation: Bearish Bias, look for a rally to enter on the bearish side below 112.00, above 112.80 look for this pair to make moves higher. Support sits at 108.50 108.00, 107.60 and 107.00. Resistance points to watch for, 109.50 109.90, 110.44 and 111.00.

Sep 4th Sep 10th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 18

Elite Global Trading

UK Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen

GBPJPY: This pair is very similar to the EURJPY and looks to make further declines over the week to come. A rally up towards 125.50126.00 is very likely to start the week off. The decline towards 123.28 last months low is very likely in the days to come, a break of this level we look to see further declines to 122.00 and further down to 2009 lows of 118.75. Recommendation: Bearish Bias, looking for shorts after the rally near 126.00.

Weeks Event Risk

Monday: GBP: Services PMI 4:30am EUR: Retail Sales 5am GBP: Retail Sales 7:01pm AUD: Home Loans 9:30pm AUD: Current Account 9:30pm Thursday: GBP: MPC Rate Statement 7am EUR: Min Bid Rate 7:45am EUR: ECB Press Conference 8:30am USD: Trade Balance 8:30am Tuesday: AUD: RBA Rate Statement 12:30am CHF: CPI 3:15am EUR: German Factory Orders 6am USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI10am AUD: GDP 9:30am JPY: Monetary Policy Statement Friday: GBP: PPI 4:30am GBP: Trade Balance 4:30am CAD: Employment Change 7am CAD: Unemployment Rate 7am Wednesday: GBP: Manufacturing Production 4:30am EUR: German Industrial Production 6am CAD: BOC Rate Statement 9am CAD: Ivey PMI 10am USD: Beige Book 2pm AUD: Employment Change 9:30pm CAD: Housing Starts 8:15am USD: Unemployment Claims 8:30am CNY: CPI 10pm AUD: Unemployment Rate 9:30pm

Elite Global Trading

News letter Authors: Anthony Rousseau

arousseau@eliteglobaltrader.com

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