Ejercicio 1 (cap.

3) de Simulación y Análisis de Sistemas (Gracía

Dunna)
 CORRIDA 1
Precio Hora Demanda Costo prod. Valor Ventas Ganancias
6 1 0.177038903 1 3.5 6 2.5
2 0.340535222 2 7 12 5
Costo 3 0.642053725 3 10.5 18 7.5
3.5 4 0.303019121 2 7 12 5
5 0.062375079 0 0 0 0
6 0.674360839 3 10.5 18 7.5
7 0.595993592 3 10.5 18 7.5
8 0.543224992 3 10.5 18 7.5
9 0.610067416 3 10.5 18 7.5
10 0.280010879 2 7 12 5
11 0.967408754 6 21 36 15
12 0.646833328 3 10.5 18 7.5
13 0.297692992 2 7 12 5
14 0.066669753 0 0 0 0
15 0.608863764 3 10.5 18 7.5
16 0.213512953 1 3.5 6 2.5
17 0.885553101 5 17.5 30 12.5
18 0.998140346 6 21 36 15
19 0.241240937 1 3.5 6 2.5
20 0.618150811 3 10.5 18 7.5
21 0.03288899 0 0 0 0
22 0.971471196 6 21 36 15
23 0.387395806 2 7 12 5
24 0.813698927 4 14 24 10
25 0.282127627 2 7 12 5
26 0.84913369 4 14 24 10
27 0.788140858 4 14 24 10
28 0.893983822 5 17.5 30 12.5
29 0.259282865 2 7 12 5
30 0.231906568 1 3.5 6 2.5
31 0.841939889 4 14 24 10
32 0.353756826 2 7 12 5
33 0.555192467 3 10.5 18 7.5
34 0.230938393 1 3.5 6 2.5
35 0.80757818 4 14 24 10
36 0.019834584 0 0 0 0
37 0.768305503 4 14 24 10
38 0.483237335 2 7 12 5
39 0.289610861 2 7 12 5
40 0.474710704 2 7 12 5
41 0.612466915 3 10.5 18 7.5
42 0.813798177 4 14 24 10
43 0.195963813 1 3.5 6 2.5
44 0.841597049 4 14 24 10
45 0.294832491 2 7 12 5
46 0.825271247 4 14 24 10
47 0.69081197 3 10.5 18 7.5
48 0.794521593 4 14 24 10
49 0.810156581 4 14 24 10
50 0.058161576 0 0 0 0
51 0.713033585 4 14 24 10
52 0.645916433 3 10.5 18 7.5
53 0.920611702 5 17.5 30 12.5
54 0.199352112 1 3.5 6 2.5
55 0.764003901 4 14 24 10
56 0.444842211 2 7 12 5
57 0.03194529 0 0 0 0
58 0.685994385 3 10.5 18 7.5
59 0.92765978 5 17.5 30 12.5
60 0.763392967 4 14 24 10
61 0.58249181 3 10.5 18 7.5
62 0.944500803 6 21 36 15
63 0.266267236 2 7 12 5
64 0.687843011 3 10.5 18 7.5
65 0.127077692 1 3.5 6 2.5
66 0.917819819 5 17.5 30 12.5
67 0.354361658 2 7 12 5
68 0.886531537 5 17.5 30 12.5
69 0.984911534 6 21 36 15
70 0.43067028 2 7 12 5
71 0.008226338 0 0 0 0
72 0.813685858 4 14 24 10
73 0.936140364 6 21 36 15
74 0.734913591 4 14 24 10
75 0.93130716 6 21 36 15
76 0.44249446 2 7 12 5
77 0.483592502 2 7 12 5
78 0.529325394 3 10.5 18 7.5
79 0.820468323 4 14 24 10
80 0.732094617 4 14 24 10
81 0.632873483 3 10.5 18 7.5
82 0.97620117 6 21 36 15
83 0.288255098 2 7 12 5
84 0.455207521 2 7 12 5
85 0.67314302 3 10.5 18 7.5
86 0.258725098 2 7 12 5
87 0.14599465 1 3.5 6 2.5
88 0.592744482 3 10.5 18 7.5
89 0.606189685 3 10.5 18 7.5
90 0.44341 2 7 12 5
91 0.427467065 2 7 12 5
92 0.820974562 4 14 24 10
93 0.408492533 2 7 12 5
94 0.073094109 0 0 0 0
95 0.974883782 6 21 36 15
96 0.957462268 6 21 36 15
97 0.463686398 2 7 12 5
98 0.369564771 2 7 12 5
99 0.057769165 0 0 0 0
100 0.973937571 6 21 36 15
Promedio 2.93 10.255 17.58 7.325
Demanda Costo prod. Valor Ventas Ganancias
 CORRIDA 2
Precio Hora Demanda Costo prod.Valor Ventas Ganancias
6 1 0.77282693 4 14 24 10
2 0.10538588 1 3.5 6 2.5
Costo 3 0.75759476 4 14 24 10
3.5 4 0.54494897 3 10.5 18 7.5
5 0.52597761 3 10.5 18 7.5
6 0.43117995 2 7 12 5
7 0.74396615 4 14 24 10
8 0.00238748 0 0 0 0
9 0.90350397 5 17.5 30 12.5
10 0.62650557 3 10.5 18 7.5
11 0.52788657 3 10.5 18 7.5
12 0.29476801 2 7 12 5
13 0.50732619 3 10.5 18 7.5
14 0.76646816 4 14 24 10
15 0.74847516 4 14 24 10
16 0.80883783 4 14 24 10
17 0.3250452 2 7 12 5
18 0.7393097 4 14 24 10
19 0.13876924 1 3.5 6 2.5
20 0.61835763 3 10.5 18 7.5
21 0.67210001 3 10.5 18 7.5
22 0.66360338 3 10.5 18 7.5
23 0.42605002 2 7 12 5
24 0.88689899 5 17.5 30 12.5
25 0.78922912 4 14 24 10
26 0.43311866 2 7 12 5
27 0.2286239 1 3.5 6 2.5
28 0.61079621 3 10.5 18 7.5
29 0.39978693 2 7 12 5
30 0.7391309 4 14 24 10
31 0.8349927 4 14 24 10
32 0.46548063 2 7 12 5
33 0.60620528 3 10.5 18 7.5
34 0.00959725 0 0 0 0
35 0.02187123 0 0 0 0
36 0.79311224 4 14 24 10
37 0.50523576 3 10.5 18 7.5
38 0.96951995 6 21 36 15
39 0.85514799 5 17.5 30 12.5
40 0.51130175 3 10.5 18 7.5
41 0.53201252 3 10.5 18 7.5
42 0.99813403 6 21 36 15
43 0.23340877 1 3.5 6 2.5
44 0.63654867 3 10.5 18 7.5
45 0.13396936 1 3.5 6 2.5
46 0.23710844 1 3.5 6 2.5
47 0.14683395 1 3.5 6 2.5
48 0.96164273 6 21 36 15
49 0.44156535 2 7 12 5
50 0.58231878 3 10.5 18 7.5
51 0.53451974 3 10.5 18 7.5
52 0.77838114 4 14 24 10
53 0.19031016 1 3.5 6 2.5
54 0.06330015 0 0 0 0
55 0.6214868 3 10.5 18 7.5
56 0.42888673 2 7 12 5
57 0.77702962 4 14 24 10
58 0.2720527 2 7 12 5
59 0.76069658 4 14 24 10
60 0.39146734 2 7 12 5
61 0.35271696 2 7 12 5
62 0.94616242 6 21 36 15
63 0.66839641 3 10.5 18 7.5
64 0.46196071 2 7 12 5
65 0.77889079 4 14 24 10
66 0.1073555 1 3.5 6 2.5
67 0.33017409 2 7 12 5
68 0.49364523 2 7 12 5
69 0.01743325 0 0 0 0
70 0.81781177 4 14 24 10
71 0.82655663 4 14 24 10
72 0.83902413 4 14 24 10
73 0.63300896 3 10.5 18 7.5
74 0.39158891 2 7 12 5
75 0.51493321 3 10.5 18 7.5
76 0.95520988 6 21 36 15
77 0.30329589 2 7 12 5
78 0.45113361 2 7 12 5
79 0.44563391 2 7 12 5
80 0.85839848 5 17.5 30 12.5
81 0.19946376 1 3.5 6 2.5
82 0.92674171 5 17.5 30 12.5
83 0.61273328 3 10.5 18 7.5
84 0.93159658 6 21 36 15
85 0.21550692 1 3.5 6 2.5
86 0.72091763 4 14 24 10
87 0.85810021 5 17.5 30 12.5
88 0.64378867 3 10.5 18 7.5
 89 0.93476031 6 21 36 15
90 0.53843785 3 10.5 18 7.5
91 0.57897948 3 10.5 18 7.5
92 0.59383396 3 10.5 18 7.5
93 0.45278718 2 7 12 5
94 0.65598034 3 10.5 18 7.5
95 0.09887293 0 0 0 0
96 0.9907383 6 21 36 15
97 0.11601175 1 3.5 6 2.5
98 0.28410084 2 7 12 5
99 0.42159706 2 7 12 5
100 0.50113106 3 10.5 18 7.5
Promedio 2.91 10.185 17.46 7.275
Demanda Costo prod.Valor Ventas Ganancias
 CORRIDA 3
Precio Hora Demanda Costo prod.Valor Ventas Ganancias Precio
6 1 0.86706246 5 17.5 30 12.5 6
2 0.88025556 5 17.5 30 12.5
Costo 3 0.15546245 1 3.5 6 2.5 Costo
3.5 4 0.72151403 4 14 24 10 3.5
5 0.79602914 4 14 24 10
6 0.16362809 1 3.5 6 2.5
7 0.68012055 3 10.5 18 7.5
8 0.95981029 6 21 36 15
9 0.02576914 0 0 0 0
10 0.79210849 4 14 24 10
11 0.02965539 0 0 0 0
12 0.67560391 3 10.5 18 7.5
13 0.04578458 0 0 0 0
14 0.08079075 0 0 0 0
15 0.43247294 2 7 12 5
16 0.34209062 2 7 12 5
17 0.95212403 6 21 36 15
18 0.77095573 4 14 24 10
19 0.15289478 1 3.5 6 2.5
20 0.33101448 2 7 12 5
21 0.94135262 6 21 36 15
22 0.17581055 1 3.5 6 2.5
23 0.21664762 1 3.5 6 2.5
24 0.08293496 0 0 0 0
25 0.04865118 0 0 0 0
26 0.98427184 6 21 36 15
27 0.63244568 3 10.5 18 7.5
28 0.1501649 1 3.5 6 2.5
29 0.16665829 1 3.5 6 2.5
30 0.27192112 2 7 12 5
31 0.54254368 3 10.5 18 7.5
32 0.63127747 3 10.5 18 7.5
33 0.79086187 4 14 24 10
34 0.73839669 4 14 24 10
35 0.22441985 1 3.5 6 2.5
36 0.36441865 2 7 12 5
37 0.78625041 4 14 24 10
38 0.97935964 6 21 36 15
39 0.55268252 3 10.5 18 7.5
40 0.82605464 4 14 24 10
41 0.85136475 5 17.5 30 12.5
42 0.54839524 3 10.5 18 7.5
43 0.91817851 5 17.5 30 12.5
44 0.34259627 2 7 12 5
45 0.84509144 4 14 24 10
46 0.94284723 6 21 36 15
47 0.8111817 4 14 24 10
48 0.24434022 1 3.5 6 2.5
49 0.76006841 4 14 24 10
50 0.47127197 2 7 12 5
51 0.15931221 1 3.5 6 2.5
52 0.30893246 2 7 12 5
53 0.5981151 3 10.5 18 7.5
54 0.62456619 3 10.5 18 7.5
55 0.60081576 3 10.5 18 7.5
56 0.71226169 4 14 24 10
57 0.41110885 2 7 12 5
58 0.75318024 4 14 24 10
59 0.55257669 3 10.5 18 7.5
60 0.33407374 2 7 12 5
61 0.15041131 1 3.5 6 2.5
62 0.8407149 4 14 24 10
63 0.80073496 4 14 24 10
64 0.72606233 4 14 24 10
65 0.67934524 3 10.5 18 7.5
66 0.3056511 2 7 12 5
67 0.6532496 3 10.5 18 7.5
68 0.01970273 0 0 0 0
69 0.61200536 3 10.5 18 7.5
70 0.59869227 3 10.5 18 7.5
71 0.70876468 4 14 24 10
72 0.93618393 6 21 36 15
73 0.09426432 0 0 0 0
74 0.03056939 0 0 0 0
75 0.29905545 2 7 12 5
76 0.75962961 4 14 24 10
77 0.82570724 4 14 24 10
78 0.00770477 0 0 0 0
79 0.82798727 4 14 24 10
80 0.21013653 1 3.5 6 2.5
81 0.52586584 3 10.5 18 7.5
82 0.75672754 4 14 24 10
83 0.79471072 4 14 24 10
84 0.40702389 2 7 12 5
85 0.36359101 2 7 12 5
86 0.277608 2 7 12 5
87 0.40585421 2 7 12 5
88 0.89628219 5 17.5 30 12.5
 89 0.24662954 1 3.5 6 2.5
90 0.58672575 3 10.5 18 7.5
91 0.50296408 3 10.5 18 7.5
92 0.75506799 4 14 24 10
93 0.04741704 0 0 0 0
94 0.88420319 5 17.5 30 12.5
95 0.04720215 0 0 0 0
96 0.88729227 5 17.5 30 12.5
97 0.30672383 2 7 12 5
98 0.11849083 1 3.5 6 2.5
99 0.03762141 0 0 0 0
100 0.78009749 4 14 24 10
Promedio 2.75 9.625 16.5 6.875
Demanda Costo prod.Valor Ventas Ganancias
 CORRIDA 4
Hora Demanda Costo prod.Valor Ventas Ganancias Precio Hora
1 0.87526346 5 17.5 30 12.5 6 1
2 0.84019515 4 14 24 10 2
3 0.05663578 0 0 0 0 Costo 3
4 0.22935826 1 3.5 6 2.5 3.5 4
5 0.66632577 3 10.5 18 7.5 5
6 0.28814388 2 7 12 5 6
7 0.37170356 2 7 12 5 7
8 0.16331177 1 3.5 6 2.5 8
9 0.90287107 5 17.5 30 12.5 9
10 0.50625054 3 10.5 18 7.5 10
11 0.8147576 4 14 24 10 11
12 0.65245519 3 10.5 18 7.5 12
13 0.75122776 4 14 24 10 13
14 0.10783234 1 3.5 6 2.5 14
15 0.8501252 5 17.5 30 12.5 15
16 0.70362041 4 14 24 10 16
17 0.15545248 1 3.5 6 2.5 17
18 0.90088056 5 17.5 30 12.5 18
19 0.22271316 1 3.5 6 2.5 19
20 0.36406474 2 7 12 5 20
21 0.69333118 3 10.5 18 7.5 21
22 0.6886197 3 10.5 18 7.5 22
23 0.44190435 2 7 12 5 23
24 0.10745988 1 3.5 6 2.5 24
25 0.37674783 2 7 12 5 25
26 0.35769619 2 7 12 5 26
27 0.59464189 3 10.5 18 7.5 27
28 0.27939381 2 7 12 5 28
29 0.17290835 1 3.5 6 2.5 29
30 0.74850806 4 14 24 10 30
31 0.48860449 2 7 12 5 31
32 0.40566542 2 7 12 5 32
33 0.82347133 4 14 24 10 33
34 0.45459967 2 7 12 5 34
35 0.95092594 6 21 36 15 35
36 0.98098681 6 21 36 15 36
37 0.57438863 3 10.5 18 7.5 37
38 0.95761118 6 21 36 15 38
39 0.76003062 4 14 24 10 39
40 0.72325762 4 14 24 10 40
41 0.66859751 3 10.5 18 7.5 41
42 0.95673382 6 21 36 15 42
43 0.56670922 3 10.5 18 7.5 43
44 0.62099662 3 10.5 18 7.5 44
45 0.74218045 4 14 24 10 45
46 0.01298541 0 0 0 0 46
47 0.06135177 0 0 0 0 47
48 0.81726145 4 14 24 10 48
49 0.75537226 4 14 24 10 49
50 0.8151181 4 14 24 10 50
51 0.30778515 2 7 12 5 51
52 0.3823004 2 7 12 5 52
53 0.82116336 4 14 24 10 53
54 0.60756624 3 10.5 18 7.5 54
55 0.83177918 4 14 24 10 55
56 0.7147828 4 14 24 10 56
57 0.064423 0 0 0 0 57
58 0.91871464 5 17.5 30 12.5 58
59 0.5849799 3 10.5 18 7.5 59
60 0.93994154 6 21 36 15 60
61 0.83036794 4 14 24 10 61
62 0.27498092 2 7 12 5 62
63 0.67249003 3 10.5 18 7.5 63
64 0.31798228 2 7 12 5 64
65 0.94965861 6 21 36 15 65
66 0.66194862 3 10.5 18 7.5 66
67 0.68981087 3 10.5 18 7.5 67
68 0.89596741 5 17.5 30 12.5 68
69 0.39649333 2 7 12 5 69
70 0.40172166 2 7 12 5 70
71 0.79393999 4 14 24 10 71
72 0.90672336 5 17.5 30 12.5 72
73 0.63832762 3 10.5 18 7.5 73
74 0.36647703 2 7 12 5 74
75 0.55168431 3 10.5 18 7.5 75
76 0.39847015 2 7 12 5 76
77 0.88937936 5 17.5 30 12.5 77
78 0.86417288 5 17.5 30 12.5 78
79 0.32884935 2 7 12 5 79
80 0.80945582 4 14 24 10 80
81 0.18925466 1 3.5 6 2.5 81
82 0.49126359 2 7 12 5 82
83 0.83285274 4 14 24 10 83
84 0.71350694 4 14 24 10 84
85 0.36874026 2 7 12 5 85
86 0.93577437 6 21 36 15 86
87 0.70286971 4 14 24 10 87
88 0.91174389 5 17.5 30 12.5 88
 89 0.99372814 6 21 36 15 89
90 0.29104265 2 7 12 5 90
91 0.86094304 5 17.5 30 12.5 91
92 0.14831167 1 3.5 6 2.5 92
93 0.27327454 2 7 12 5 93
94 0.0764971 0 0 0 0 94
95 0.13196119 1 3.5 6 2.5 95
96 0.07541532 0 0 0 0 96
97 0.54606829 3 10.5 18 7.5 97
98 0.3818614 2 7 12 5 98
99 0.86536513 5 17.5 30 12.5 99
100 0.65675267 3 10.5 18 7.5 100
Promedio 3.07 10.745 18.42 7.675
Demanda Costo prod.Valor Ventas Ganancias
 CORRIDA 5
Demanda Costo prod.Valor Ventas Ganancias Corridas Ganancias
0.65092342 3 10.5 18 7.5 1 7.325
0.55805037 3 10.5 18 7.5 2 7.275
0.84140331 4 14 24 10 3 6.875
0.15952598 1 3.5 6 2.5 4 7.675
0.43348177 2 7 12 5 5 6.025
0.59316126 3 10.5 18 7.5 Promedio 7.035
0.36094168 2 7 12 5
0.23318068 1 3.5 6 2.5
0.20604627 1 3.5 6 2.5
0.95502776 6 21 36 15
0.73746015 4 14 24 10
0.6557957 3 10.5 18 7.5
0.59954702 3 10.5 18 7.5
0.43065562 2 7 12 5
0.74373517 4 14 24 10
0.64667036 3 10.5 18 7.5
0.98707107 6 21 36 15
0.44812905 2 7 12 5
0.79001346 4 14 24 10
0.66847872 3 10.5 18 7.5
0.68479957 3 10.5 18 7.5
0.19328293 1 3.5 6 2.5
0.29324356 2 7 12 5
0.76012675 4 14 24 10
0.59484556 3 10.5 18 7.5
0.10939791 1 3.5 6 2.5
0.01020395 0 0 0 0
0.32736012 2 7 12 5
0.71197819 4 14 24 10
0.63623501 3 10.5 18 7.5
0.44806597 2 7 12 5
0.18510171 1 3.5 6 2.5
0.48286237 2 7 12 5
0.74648529 4 14 24 10
0.10440036 1 3.5 6 2.5
0.69245237 3 10.5 18 7.5
0.35748373 2 7 12 5
0.02064557 0 0 0 0
0.21357684 1 3.5 6 2.5
0.39715137 2 7 12 5
0.16180031 1 3.5 6 2.5
0.15546621 1 3.5 6 2.5
0.0426972 0 0 0 0
0.92953794 5 17.5 30 12.5
0.52384131 3 10.5 18 7.5
0.28017959 2 7 12 5
0.55501259 3 10.5 18 7.5
0.83621307 4 14 24 10
0.91430807 5 17.5 30 12.5
0.03364191 0 0 0 0
0.00906739 0 0 0 0
0.51789255 3 10.5 18 7.5
0.99579615 6 21 36 15
0.30555204 2 7 12 5
0.08549638 0 0 0 0
0.83862835 4 14 24 10
0.1792372 1 3.5 6 2.5
0.49951664 2 7 12 5
0.45698297 2 7 12 5
0.41406877 2 7 12 5
0.31967454 2 7 12 5
0.0114255 0 0 0 0
0.59293415 3 10.5 18 7.5
0.74015335 4 14 24 10
0.00561353 0 0 0 0
0.126957 1 3.5 6 2.5
0.28768743 2 7 12 5
0.13846984 1 3.5 6 2.5
0.43804471 2 7 12 5
0.08274545 0 0 0 0
0.90160238 5 17.5 30 12.5
0.28651795 2 7 12 5
0.30380803 2 7 12 5
0.41359931 2 7 12 5
0.16519222 1 3.5 6 2.5
0.06145081 0 0 0 0
0.60241587 3 10.5 18 7.5
0.33244671 2 7 12 5
0.8886102 5 17.5 30 12.5
0.66832412 3 10.5 18 7.5
0.35690712 2 7 12 5
0.18644997 1 3.5 6 2.5
0.72499907 4 14 24 10
0.59167438 3 10.5 18 7.5
0.27687061 2 7 12 5
0.95132825 6 21 36 15
0.49119842 2 7 12 5
0.17110205 1 3.5 6 2.5
0.75824898 4 14 24 10
0.41352629 2 7 12 5
0.75310722 4 14 24 10
0.25185162 2 7 12 5
0.6660734 3 10.5 18 7.5
0.76078175 4 14 24 10
0.24151388 1 3.5 6 2.5
0.43260181 2 7 12 5
0.52411273 3 10.5 18 7.5
0.5494037 3 10.5 18 7.5
0.68129275 3 10.5 18 7.5
0.40384385 2 7 12 5
Promedio 2.41 8.435 14.46 6.025
Demanda Costo prod.Valor Ventas Ganancias
 Ganancias
8

7.5

6.5

5.5

5
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
 Precio
Venta
8.00 $

Costo
Unidad
4.00 $

Ejercicio 3.37 (cap. 3) de Simulación y Análisis de Modelos Estocásticos

(Azarang)
Hora Demanda/Hr Corridas
1 0 3 4.52
Gráfica de Estabilización (25 corridas
2 1 6 4.26
3 0 4 4.18 6

4 0 4 4.44 5
5 0 2 4.58
6 1 5 4.1 4
7 0 4 4.78
3
8 1 5 4.54
9 1 5 4.54 2
10 0 4 3.96
1
11 0 2 4.18
12 0 2 4.5 0
1 6 11 16
13 1 7 4.6
14 ### 8 4.32 Corridas
15 0 4 3.94
16 1 7 4.56
17 0 3 4.22 Columna1
18 1 5 4.8
19 1 6 4.32 Media 4.392
20 1 5 4.86 Error típico 0.048138689
21 0 4 4.26 Mediana 4.38
22 0 2 4.38 Moda 4.26
23 1 5 4.3 Desviación estánda 0.240693443
24 0 1 4.24 Varianza de la mues 0.057933333
25 1 6 4.42 Curtosis -0.32672561
26 1 5 Coeficiente de asim 0.089456095
27 0 4 Rango 0.92
28 1 6 Mínimo 3.94
29 0 2 Máximo 4.86
30 0 4 Suma 109.8
31 0 1 Cuenta 25
32 0 4 Nivel de confianza( 0.09935337
33 0 3
34 1 5
35 ### 8
36 1 7
37 0 1
38 1 5
39 0 3
40 1 5
41 0 4
42 0 2
43 1 7
44 1 6
45 0 3
46 0 2
47 0 2
48 1 5
49 1 5
50 0 1
Estabilización (25 corridas)

11 16 21

Corridas
 1 Paso:

Día
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
Ejercicio 3.48 (cap. 3) de Simulación y Análisis de Modelos Estocásticos 30
(Azarang)
Determinar el
Clima Promedio/mes Promedio/día
Tipo de Clima Aleatorio Ventas (Kg) Total Ventas Total Ventas
0.6324811936 NEBULOSO 0.4751786211 30 749.7861707581 24.992872358603
0.8058221813 TORMENTOSO 0.4759078871 13.53523755
0.866384675 TORMENTOSO 0.3378440935 21.13210659 Ingresos Ingresos
0.8222685366 TORMENTOSO 0.3448795317 21.25059444 74,978.62 $ 2,499.29 $
0.5694804789 NEBULOSO 0.3976461863 30
0.8784346471 TORMENTOSO 0.5600190084 5.720722304 Egresos Egresos
0.9649217075 ESPANTOSO 0.7101532984 0 60,000.00 $ 2,000.00 $
0.9929221644 ESPANTOSO 0.5829690192 0
0.1820509671 CALUROSO 0.4421731591 30 Utilidad Neta Utilidad Neta P
0.6879776537 NEBULOSO 0.2988710376 30 14,978.62 $ 499.29 $ 60
0.5053277677 NEBULOSO 0.1363705958 30
0.0563100125 CALUROSO 0.1596542863 20 b. P(Nebuloso) 40.0% 50
0.4185173313 NEBULOSO 0.8683561177 40 Corridas (b)
40
0.6354659665 NEBULOSO 0.3579864323 30 1 40
0.1219206704 CALUROSO 0.9224411272 40 2 43.3
30
0.0295364434 CALUROSO 0.8680440153 40 3 50
0.402474855 NEBULOSO 0.7827382156 40 4 46.7 20
0.8108434631 TORMENTOSO 0.7759052716 13.75597852 5 40
0.5749655354 NEBULOSO 0.4891618476 30 6 40 10
0.9446158226 ESPANTOSO 0.9740363079 1 7 36.7
0.2924256487 CALUROSO 0.6714543554 40 8 46.7 0
0 2 4
0.6118548448 NEBULOSO 0.7603413521 40 9 16.7
0.6990583044 NEBULOSO 0.4899700602 30 10 40
0.7024700669 TORMENTOSO 0.2084037308 17.24364485 11 40
0.6100417595 NEBULOSO 0.6081102759 30 12 46.7
0.9555085243 ESPANTOSO 0.2039529509 0 13 36.7
0.8853219023 TORMENTOSO 0.8163611693 16.14788651 14 46.7
0.1212155351 CALUROSO 0.4467917187 30 15 33.3
0.1547774884 CALUROSO 0.5142517028 40 16 40
0.4784846877 NEBULOSO 0.7798523031 40 17 40
 Probabilidad de día Nebuloso
60

50

40

30

20

10

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Ejercicio 3.47 (cap. 3) de Simulación y Análisis de Modelos Estocásticos
(Azarang)
Producicion=3550+250(P(sol))+390(P(lluvia))-150(P(nublado))-600*t

1=si
0=no
clima
sol
dias ALEATORIO dia lluvia
1 0.0010168449 nublado nublado
2 0.6601311612 nublado
3 0.8551114874 lluvia
4 0.1702551112 sol
5 0.149017425 nublado
6 0.1073957557 nublado
7 0.8156169536 sol
8 0.2899036721 nublado
9 0.1020565525 sol
10 0.4098290384 sol
Retaso/Fertili 2.046827506
 probabilidad 10 D Pro procentaje
4 0.4 40%
1 0.1 10%
5 0.5 50%
producion 2185.9035
 dias aleatorio
1 0.41078304
2 0.73092368
3 0.19626292
4 0.46813114
5 0.7107619
6 0.13125624
7 0.88806791
8 0.56734507
9 0.11000026
Ejercicio 3.45 (cap. 3) de Simulación y Análisis de Modelos Estocásticos 10 0.08506762
(Azarang) 11 0.26465461
12 0.18226966
13 0.82673772
14 0.62559057
15 0.70021643
16 0.84778129
17 0.70824856
18 0.48742266
19 0.4868045
20 0.94998826
21 0.53108609
22 0.39534894
23 0.9251151
24 0.84922724
25 0.68884169
26 0.49763831
27 0.47009118
28 0.16534157
29 0.52345116
30 0.00528273
Capacidad del camion Viajes por Dias capacidad de caja numero decajas
625 5 198.079107878987 16
117.571163463392 27
267.970210538477 12
182.95409256204 17
122.705029174489 25
299.248440690021 10
72.3531715385133 43
158.099121042203 20
311.99474169157 10
329.660460467104 9
242.12277635992 13
273.989090006282 11
91.6013587692339 34
143.824578156461 22
125.362403559724 25
85.3366706709698 37
123.339952369271 25
178.02051133129 18
178.177628530865 18
47.5665765435836 66
167.056437061333 19
202.297318164893 15
58.5885392611964 53
84.8952032164196 37
128.210770370781 24
175.432565202901 18
182.449832914443 17
281.7243583752 11
168.956915226098 18
480.863877909223 6
Promedio 23
 9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

Ejercicio 3.46 (cap. 3) de Simulación y Análisis de Modelos Estocásticos

(Azarang)
 aleatorios tiempo_Es cleintes orden*clien Tiempo de consumo
0.06727101 16.1941558 1 1 60
0.06039798 16.8407975 1 1 60
0.09897096 13.8775727 1 2 30
0.46306498 4.61932732 2 2 30
0.69163228 2.21220515 2 2 30
0.96524608 0.21223323 4 4 15
0.66251778 2.47024727 2 2 30
0.43154655 5.04227941 2 2 30
0.06769491 16.156466 1 1 60
0.21083334 9.34012384 1 1 60
0.94680206 0.32799137 4 4 15
0.40340876 5.44682963 2 2 30
0.53441415 3.75950509 2 0 0
0.2672083 7.91836071 1 1 60
 mesas.D P*orden C*orden utilidad cola
1 mesa de 2 ocupada 400 200 200 0
2 mesa de 2 ocupada 400 200 200 0
3 mesa de 2 ocupada 800 400 400 0
4 mesa de 2 ocupada 800 400 400 0
No hay mesa de 2 800 400 400 2
No hay mesa de 2 y 1 mesa de 4 ocupada 1600 800 800 0
No hay mesa de 2 y 1 mesa de 4 ocupada 800 400 400 2
No hay mesa de 2 y 1 mesa de 4 ocupada 800 400 400 2
No hay mesa de 2 y 1 mesa de 4 ocupada 400 200 200 1
No hay mesa de 2 y 1 mesa de 4 ocupada 400 200 200 1
No hay mesa de 2 y 2 mesa de 4 ocupada 1600 800 800 0
No hay mesa de 2 y 2 mesa de 4 ocupada 800 400 400 2
No hay mesa de 2 y 2 mesa de 4 ocupada 0 0 0 0
No hay mesa de 2 y 2 mesa de 4 ocupada 400 200 200 1

clientes en espera de mesas 11

tiempo total de espera de los clientes 2460
T/cola
0
0
0
0
210
0
255
285
345
405
0
450
0
510
 X 0 1
f(X) 0.15 0.2
LUNES
aleatorio horas N/bebidas/V
0.48829566 1 2
0.85035689 2 4
0.17299954 3 1
0.12412017 4 0
0.68096423 5 2
0.43405226 6 2
0.04180511 7 0
0.09499412 8 0
0.97257668 9 4
0.39226575 10 2
17
 Cost/venta Ganacias Gan/produto Gastos/exp
2 3 4 4,000.00 $ 35% $ 14.00 250,000.00 $
0.35 0.15 0.15
LUNES MARTES
costo/venta ganancia/P aleatorio horas N/bebidas/V costo/venta ganancia/P
$ 8,000.00 28.000 $ 0.38271797 1 2 $ 8,000.00 28.000 $
$ 16,000.00 56.000 $ 0.8850296 2 4 $ 16,000.00 56.000 $
$ 4,000.00 14.000 $ 0.31043363 3 1 $ 4,000.00 14.000 $
$ - - $ 0.54973859 4 2 $ 8,000.00 28.000 $
$ 8,000.00 28.000 $ 0.68376364 5 2 $ 8,000.00 28.000 $
$ 8,000.00 28.000 $ 0.88697101 6 4 $ 16,000.00 56.000 $
$ - - $ 0.13942404 7 0 $ - - $
$ - - $ 0.22681794 8 1 $ 4,000.00 14.000 $
$ 16,000.00 56.000 $ 0.93798561 9 4 $ 16,000.00 56.000 $
$ 8,000.00 28.000 $ 0.03346008 10 0 $ - - $
68,000.00 $ 238.00000 $ 20 80,000.00 $ 280.00 $
 MIERCOLES JUEVES
aleatorio horas N/bebidas/Vcosto/venta ganancia/P aleatorio horas N/bebidas/V
0.10249586 1 0 $ - - $ 0.7119211 1 3
0.15723496 2 1 $ 4,000.00 14.00 $ 0.92124866 2 4
0.33495406 3 1 $ 4,000.00 14.00 $ 0.43031323 3 2
0.13359144 4 0 $ - - $ 0.44364983 4 2
0.92677829 5 4 $ 16,000.00 56.00 $ 0.10565494 5 0
0.02286443 6 0 $ - - $ 0.32378516 6 1
0.92194735 7 4 $ 16,000.00 56.00 $ 0.52060901 7 2
0.13622299 8 0 $ - - $ 0.87005269 8 4
0.25034818 9 1 $ 4,000.00 14.00 $ 0.73735015 9 3
0.86698881 10 4 $ 16,000.00 56.00 $ 0.49314551 10 2
15 60,000.00 $ 210.00 $ 23
JUEVES VIEERNES SAB
costo/venta ganancia/P aleatorio horas N/bebidas/Vcosto/venta ganancia/P aleatorio
$ 12,000.00 42.00 $ 0.14215868 1 0 $ - - $ 0.6136145
$ 16,000.00 56.00 $ 0.50697325 2 2 $ 8,000.00 28.00 $ 0.50175048
$ 8,000.00 28.00 $ 0.69962195 3 2 $ 8,000.00 28.00 $ 0.73553897
$ 8,000.00 28.00 $ 0.57538515 4 2 $ 8,000.00 28.00 $ 0.01814799
$ - - $ 0.14151561 5 0 $ - - $ 0.2854031
$ 4,000.00 14.00 $ 0.11921087 6 0 $ - - $ 0.5653617
$ 8,000.00 28.00 $ 0.05853394 7 0 $ - - $ 0.11552518
$ 16,000.00 56.00 $ 0.70583861 8 3 $ 12,000.00 42.00 $ 0.54263117
$ 12,000.00 42.00 $ 0.58016388 9 2 $ 8,000.00 28.00 $ 0.86427158
$ 8,000.00 28.00 $ 0.98767312 10 4 $ 16,000.00 56.00 $ 0.59810761
92,000.00 $ 322.00 $ 15 60,000.00 $ 210.00 $
 SABADO
horas N/bebidas/Vcosto/venta ganancia/P
1 2 $ 8,000.00 28.00 $
2 2 $ 8,000.00 28.00 $
3 3 $ 12,000.00 42.00 $
4 0 $ - - $
5 1 $ 4,000.00 14.00 $
6 2 $ 8,000.00 28.00 $
7 0 $ - - $
8 2 $ 8,000.00 28.00 $
9 4 $ 16,000.00 56.00 $
10 2 $ 8,000.00 28.00 $
18 72,000.00 $ 252.00 $
  12 
x       Ri  6 
 i 1 
para el eje y
 sigma=3 lanzamiento aleatorio eje y eje x acierta lanzamiento
lansamientos 500 1 0.73054075 -0.6618214 -7.6590136 0 2
X=0 0.28190582
0.85844322
0.86312962
0.61740586
0.45331985
0.94590895
0.18409712
0.00047945
0.14774477
0.29435743
0.40206004
5.77939288
 aleatorio eje y eje x acierta
0.20467316 -2.4280864 8.9615975 0
0.17392614
0.78120628
0.14055979
0.81561216
0.44886834
0.94985397
0.55834393
0.34623789
0.01584668
0.34958199
0.40592755
5.19063786
 agua/limon
emparedado/q
Costo/litro
Precio/Vent/L
Costo/Empare
Precio/Vent/E
5 tortas/dia

aleatorio
0.4245280871

aleatorio
Emparedados 0.213286308088
aleatorio dias demandas/D 0.907552495013
0.34973446 1 5 0.775076842849
0.938976441127
0.720552567083
0.951652373151
0.714536416681
0.60927470077
0.188608400353
0.915297869847
 15
5
2.00 $
10.000 $
3.50 $
50 $

dias dema/bebi utilid/bebid Dmnd/pareda utldd/empa

1 16 120 5 232.5

Agua limon
dias Demanda/D Producion Ventas faltaron Sobraron Costos/LitrosVenta/litros
1 14 15 14 0 1 $ 28.00 $ 140.000
2 20 15 15 5 0 $ 30.00 $ 150.000
3 19 15 15 4 0 $ 30.00 $ 150.000
4 20 15 15 5 0 $ 30.00 $ 150.000
5 19 15 15 4 0 $ 30.00 $ 150.000
6 20 15 15 5 0 $ 30.00 $ 150.000
7 19 15 15 4 0 $ 30.00 $ 150.000
8 18 15 15 3 0 $ 30.00 $ 150.000
9 13 15 13 0 2 $ 26.00 $ 130.000
10 20 15 15 5 0 $ 30.00 $ 150.000
utilidad
$ 112.000
$ 120.000
$ 120.000
$ 120.000
$ 120.000
$ 120.000
$ 120.000
$ 120.000
$ 104.000
$ 120.000
 Distribucion normal con media
X1
media 1.5 desviacion
varianza 0.0016 0.04
X2
media 1.48 desviacion
varianza 0.0009 0.03
 12

()r 6
i

#tiros X1 X2 Interfe
i1

1 7.776 1.776 1.571 1.533 1 cumple

2 7.009 1.009 1.540 1.510 0
3 5.712 0.288 1.512 1.489 0
4 4.366 1.634 1.565 1.529 1
5 5.363 0.637 1.525 1.499 0
6 8.551 2.551 1.602 1.557 1
7 8.404 2.404 1.596 1.552 1
8 6.882 0.882 1.535 1.506 0
9 7.962 1.962 1.578 1.539 1
10 8.197 2.197 1.588 1.546 1
11 4.320 1.680 1.567 1.530 1
12 5.115 0.885 1.535 1.507 0
13 5.669 0.331 1.513 1.490 0
14 5.583 0.417 1.517 1.493 0
15 6.185 0.185 1.507 1.486 0
16 3.489 2.511 1.600 1.555 1
17 3.772 2.228 1.589 1.547 1
18 5.633 0.367 1.515 1.491 0
19 5.435 0.565 1.523 1.497 0
20 6.494 0.494 1.520 1.495 0