WORKING PAPER

The Environmental Dimensions of Emigration from Rural Mexico

Lori M. Hunter Sheena Murray Fernando Riosmena March 2011

Population Program POP2011-03 _____________________________________________________________________________ 1

 TheEnvironmentalDimensionsofEmigrationfromRuralMexico LoriM.Hunter DepartmentofSociology CUPopulationCenter,InstituteofBehavioralScience,UniversityofColoradoatBoulder SheenaMurray DepartmentofEconomics CUPopulationCenter,InstituteofBehavioralScience,UniversityofColoradoatBoulder FernandoRiosmena DepartmentofGeography CUPopulationCenter,InstituteofBehavioralScience,UniversityofColoradoatBoulder Donotcite. Ifinterestedinadditionalinformationonthestatusofthisresearch, pleasecontactLori.Hunter@colorado.edu. Preliminarymanuscriptpreparedforpresentationatthe 2011meetingofthePopulationAssociationofAmerica,WashingtonDC. Acknowledgements:PreliminarysupportforthisprojectprovidedbytheCenterfor EnvironmentandPopulation(CEP)throughtheirSummerFellowshipProgram.Theworkhas alsobenefitedfromtheNICHDfundedUniversityofColoradoPopulationCenter(grantR21 HD51146)forresearch,administrative,andcomputingsupport.Thecontentissolelythe responsibilityoftheauthorsanddoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheofficialviewsofCEP,NIH, orNICHD.

 TheEnvironmentalDimensionsofEmigrationfromRuralMexico LoriM.Hunter,SheenaMurrayandFernandoRiosmena UniversityofColoradoatBoulder Abstract:Inmanydevelopingcountries,naturalresourcedependencyisadaytodayrealityfor manyruralhouseholds.Assuch,changesinweatherandclimatepatternsholdtremendous potentialtoimpactlivelihoods.Whenlivelihoodoptionsareconstrainedduetoshiftsin environmentalconditions,migrationbecomesasignificant,adaptivelivelihoodstrategy reducinghouseholdvulnerability.Inthisproject,weofferapreliminaryanswertothequestion: IsemigrationfromruralMexicototheU.S.associatedwithrecentpatternsofprecipitation,net ofothersocioeconomicfactorsshapingmigrationpatterns?UsingdatafromtheMexican MigrationProject(MMP),wemodelU.S.emigrationfromruralMexicancommunitiesasrelated tocommunity,householdandenvironmentalfactors.Wefindthathouseholdssubjectedto droughtconditionsarefarmorelikelytosendamigrantascomparedtothosesubjectedtowet conditions.Theresultshaveimportantimplicationsforpolicyandprogrammaticresponseto currentmigrationpressuresemphasizingdiversificationofruralMexicanlivelihoodsintheface ofcontemporaryclimatechange.

TheEnvironmentalDimensionsofEmigrationfromRuralMexico LoriM.Hunter,SheenaMurrayandFernandoRiosmena UniversityofColoradoatBoulder Public,policyandacademicrealmshavebeenpayingincreasingattentiontothepotential forenvironmentalchangetoalterpatternsofhumanmigration.Evenso,littlepeerreviewed scholarshipexistsontheconnection.Thisprojectcontributesempiricallywithfocuson internationalmigrationfromruralMexico,bothasettingandsocialprocessofconsiderable policyrelevance. AfocusonthepotentialforenvironmentalpushfactorstoshapeMexicanmigrationis especiallytimelynotonlybecauseofcontemporaryclimatechangebutalsobecauseof heightenedattentiontotrendsinU.S.immigration.TheUnitedStateshad39millionforeign bornresidentsin2009thehighestproportionofforeignborninanynation(Martinand Midgley2010).Mexicocontinuestobealeadingsourceofbothauthorizedandunauthorized immigrationtotheUnitedStates(Hoefer,RytinaandCampbell2007);About30percentofU.S. legalimmigrants,andhalfoftheunauthorizedforeigners,arefromMexico(MartinandMidgley 2006). Althoughsubstantialresearchhasexaminedthesocial,economic,andpolicydriversof MexicanmigrationtotheU.S.(e.g.Cohen2004;Durandetal.1996;Kanaiaupuni2000; HernandezLeon2008;LindstromandLauster2001;Masseyetal.1987;Massey,Goldring,and Durand1994;MasseyandEspinosa1997;Masseyetal.2002;MasseyandRiosmena2010; Riosmena2009;Rosas2008),farlessisknownabouttheenvironmentalpushfactorsrelated toMexicoU.S.emigration(Nevins2007);Toourknowledge,theonlysuchpublishedwork
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revealsintriguingstatelevelassociationsassociationsbetweenMexicanoutmigrationand declinesincropyields(Fengetal.2010).Webelievetheprojectpresentedhere,atthe householdlevel,istheonlyefforttodatemodelinginternationaloutmigrationfromrural Mexicoasrelatedtoenvironmentalfactorsatgeographicscalesmoreprecisethanthestate. Background Thisprojecttakesplaceatthenexusoftwoliteratures:naturalresourcesandrurallivelihoods, combinedwithmigrationasanadaptivelivelihoodstrategy,particularlyamongvulnerable households.Theseliteraturesarebrieflyreviewedbelow,withspecificreferencetothe Mexicansettingasavailablewithinexistingwork. Rurallivelihoods,withfocusonnaturalresources:Weusetheconceptualframeworkof RuralLivelihoods(IFAD2010)whichhasbeenusedinawidevarietyofanalyticalendeavors includingexplorationofhealthbehaviors(Rugalema2000),foodsecurity(Bank2005)and householddiversificationstrategies(Yaro2006).Theframeworkclassifiesvariouscapital assetsthatshapelivelihoodoptions,includinghumancapital(e.g.,labor),financialcapital (e.g.,savings),physicalcapital(e.g.,automobiles),socialcapital(e.g.,networks),andnatural capital(e.g.,wildfoods).Therelativeavailabilityofvariousassetsisshapedbyindividualand householdactionsaswellasbroadersocioeconomicpoliticalstructuresandprocesses (Bebbington1999).Inturn,availabilityshapeslivelihoodstrategieswhichmayincludehuman capitaluse(e.g.,labormigration,seeCollinsonetal.2006a,2006bornaturalcapitaluse(e.g., makingresourcebasedcraftsformarket(Pereira,ShackletonandShackleton2006)).Ingeneral, thelivelihoodsapproachhasprovenavaluabletoolinhighlightingthediversityanddynamism

ofthechoicesandactivitiesinwhichruralhouseholdsengagetomeethouseholdneeds (Wintersetal.2002). Focusingonnaturalcapital,inruralregionsoftheworldslessdevelopednations,proximate naturalresources(e.g.,land,water,wildfoods)areoftenessentialinmeetingbasicliving requirements(e.g.Nunan2010).Assuch,environmentalchangehasimmediateanddirect impactsonthehealthandwellbeingofmillionsofhouseholds(KoziellandSaunders2001). InruralMexicospecifically,naturalcapitalintheformoflandandwaterareespecially centraltolivelihoods.Withafocusonfourcarefullyselectedcasestudycommunities,Wiggins etal.(2002)detailthediversityofruralMexicanslivelihoods.Intheirstudy,households typicallyhadfivesourcesofincomeandthegreatmajorityofhouseholdshadaccesstoplotsof land.Fully78%farmed,predominantlymaizeandbeans.Yet,althoughfarmingwasthemost frequentsourceofincome,itcontributedinmostcasesonlyarelativelysmallfractionof householdincomes(onaverage,14percent).Burnstein(2007)alsonotesthatcorn,in particular,continuestobeamainstayofMexicanrurallivelihoods,anditsproductionsustains some15millionofMexicos103millionresidents.Overall,althoughfarmingisnotthemain activityforsmallholdersinruralMexico,itisacentralcomponentofthediversificationof livelihoods(deJanvryandSadoulet2001;Wigginsetal.2002).Inthisway,livelihoodsare vulnerabletoclimaticvariabilitythatmayimpactagriculturalproductivity(Eakin2005). KeytoexaminationofnaturalcapitalwithinMexicoisunderstandingofejidosrural communitieswhichcollectivelypossessrightstolandandwhoseresidentmembers (ejidatarios)areentitledtoworkaplotoftheirown(Wigginsetal.2002).Ejidoswerecreated throughlandtransfersstartinginthe1930s.Thoughmarketliberalizationreformsduringthe

1990sallowedejidatariostoattainprivatetitlesofandthushavethecapacitytoselltheirlands, veryfewhavesold(Barnes2009).Ofparticularrelevancetothepresentproject,itisestimated thattheejidosectorcontainsapproximately60%oftheruralpopulation(deJanvryand Sadoulet2001).Recentworksuggeststhatcontemporaryeffortstoprovideejidohouseholds withacertificateoflandownershipareassociatedwithanincreaseinemigrationtotheU.S., therebyinferringthatmoresecureaccesstothisformofnaturalcapitalprovidesafoundation fromwhichtoengageintherelativelyexpensivelivelihooddiversificationstrategyof internationalmigration(Valsecchi2010).Assuch,ourmodelingstrategyincludesland ownershipvariablesbothathouseholdandcommunitylevels. Winters,DavisandCorral(2002)alsooutlinelivelihoodframeworksinruralMexico, characterizingthediversityoflivelihoodactivitiesalthoughthecentralityofagricultureand naturalcapitalremains.InWintersetal.s(2002)examinationofanationallyrepresentative sampleofMexicanejidohouseholds,fully93.7%participatedincropproductionand agriculturalactivitiesasawhole(crops,livestockandagriculturalemployment)madeupover half(55%)oftotalruralhouseholdincome.Ofcourse,therearedistinctlivelihoodstrategies dependingonwhetherruralMexicanhouseholdshaveaccesstoirrigatedorrainfedland. Yetotherforcesbeyondthehouseholdclearlyalsoshapelivelihoodstrategies.Wintersand colleagues(2002:141)aptlynotethatlivelihooddecisionmakingisconditionedonthecontext inwhichthehouseholdoperatesinfluencedthroughnaturalforces,markets,stateactivity andsocietalinstitutions.Inthisway,environmentalchangeactsinconcertwithpoliticaland economicforcestoshapelivelihoodstrategiesand,forMexicossmallholderfarmers,recent workhasdocumentedthenegativeimplicationsofthenationsglobaleconomicintegration

(Eakin2005).Afterdecadesofpublicinvestmentandsupportiveagriculturalpoliciesspurring agriculturalgrowth,neoliberalizationoftheagriculturalsectorandfoodpolicyduringthe Salinasadministration,19881994,broughtdramaticchangestoruralMexico.Today,Mexican povertyhasfurtherconcentratedinthecountryside,particularlyintheSouth(e.g.Hanson 2003;Nevins2007;Polaski2004;Zepedaetal.2009).Informedbyunderstandingofrecent politicaleconomicconditionsinMexico,tocontrolforbroader,changingmacroconditionsnot capturedbyourcommunitySESmeasures,weincludebothstateandyearfixedeffectsinthe modelspresentedbelow. Rurallivelihoodvulnerabilityandadaptation,withfocusonmigration:Applicationofthe RuralLivelihoodsframeworktoMexicanlivelihoodsandclimateisfurtherinformedbysocial scienceresearchonvulnerabilityandadaptation.Vulnerabilityisdefinedasthedegreeto whichasystem,subsystem,orasystemcomponentislikelytoexperienceharmdueto exposuretoahazardeitherasaperturbationorstress/stressor(Turneretal.2003).As explainedbyLeichenkoandOBrien(2002:2),withinthecontextofclimatestudies, conceptualizationofvulnerabilityhasmostlyfocusedonmarginality,susceptibility,adaptability, fragility,andrisk.Usingthesefactors,vulnerabilitymappinghelpsidentifyregionsparticularly vulnerabletoclimateshifts(FussellandKlein2006;Hahn,RiedererandFoster2009;Ionescuet al.2009;Polsky,NeffandYarnaletal.2007).Highlevelsofresourcedependencecontributeto climatevulnerability(ThomasandTwyman2006)andregionsinwhichresidentsdependon rainfedagriculture(suchasmostofourstudysites)areespeciallyvulnerable(ReidandVogel 2006).

Livelihooddiversificationistheprocessbywhichhouseholdsreducevulnerabilityasthey seektoensurewellbeing(Ellis2000).Suchadaptationmayoccurinresponsetoclimate vulnerability,withadaptationdefinedasadjustmentstoasysteminresponsetoactualor expectedclimatestimuli,theireffects,ortheirimpacts(LeichenkoandOBrien2006).In consideringvulnerabilityandadaptivepotential,Adger,PaavolaandHuq(2006:2)comment theworldschangingclimateandourresponsestoitthreatentoexacerbatepreciselythose trendsandpressuresthatcausepresentinsecuritiesandthatarelikelytoleadtoincreased insecurityinthefuture.Theold,young,poor,andthosedependentonclimatesensitive resources,includingalloftheworldsfarmersandfishers,areatgreatestrisk. Migrationisaparticularadaptationstrategyusedbyhouseholdsinthefaceof environmentalstrain(Bilsborrow1992;McLemanandHunter2010;McLemanandSmit2005; NjockandWestlund2010;Nunan2010).Muchoftheexistingempiricalresearchonmigration, livelihoodsandshiftsinnaturalcapitalfocusesonlandavailabilityand/orlandusedecisions, andissituatedinAsia,andCentral/SouthAmerica(e.g.,Ayuwat1993;Snegstrom2009).Results suggestwhenfacedwithalackoflivelihoodoptions,oftenduetocumulativeprocessesof environmentaldegradation(Zweifler,GoldandThomas1994),householdsmaystrategically diversifywithsomehouseholdmembersmigratingtoseekopportunityelsewhere(Bilsborrow 2002;Snegstrom2009;McLemanandHunter2010).Inthisway,changesinproximatenatural capitalshapehouseholddecisionsaboutuseofhumancapital. Fouradditionalstudiesdeservemention.Arecentone,undertakeninNepal,provides evidencethatenvironmentalfactorsplayaroleinmigration,particularlyshortdistancemoves. (Massey,AxinnandGhimire2010).Another,undertakeninEthiopia,evaluateshistorical

experiencegainedfromdroughtinducedmigration,findingthatfamilieswithmoresurvival strategiestendedtoresistdistressmigrationlonger(MezeHausken2000:382).InBurkinaFaso, Henryandcolleagues(Henry,SchoumakerandBeauchemin2004)demonstratethatresidents ofdrierregionsaremorelikelytoengageinbothtemporaryandpermanentmigrationsto otherruralareas,ascomparedtoresidentsofhighprecipitationregions.Findley(1994) exploredthemigratoryimplicationsofMalidroughtandfoundthattheseveredroughtof1983 1985wasassociatedwithadramaticincreaseinmigrationofwomenandchildren,andalsoan increaseinshorttermcyclicalmigration. Withtheaboveworkasafoundation,aspateofnewresearchhasrecentlyemergedonthe migrationenvironmentassociation.Overwhelmingly,therecentadditionsprovideevidenceof lackof,andvariabilityin,naturalcapitalactingasapushfactorinoutmigration,inconcert withotherinfluences.Asanexample,bringingthelivelihoodsframeworktoruralmigration environmentissuesinChina,Qin(2010)findsthatruraloutmigrationisastrategythatlowers dependenceonnaturalcapital,specificallyagricultureandotherproximatenaturalresources usedforsubsistence.Lowernaturalcapitalintheformofsmallerfishcatchesintensifies livelihoodvulnerabilityinEastAfrica,resultinginthemigrationoffisherfolk(Njockand Westlund2010;Nunan2010). BringingourattentiontoMexico,Eakin(2005)arguesthatunderstandingfarmersrangeof livelihoodchoices,andlimitstotheiradaptivecapacity,isimportantinunderstandingrural vulnerabilitiestoclimatechange.Indeed,environmentaltrendsclearlyshapehouseholdcoping capacitysinceagriculturalyieldsareimpactedbyclimatefactors(Luersetal.2003).Related, researchhasshownthatofffarmemploymentandmigrationappeartostabilizehousehold

livelihoodsthroughdiversificationandreducedenvironmentalreliance(DeJanvryandSadoulet 2001;Wigginsetal.2002).Suchlivelihooddiversificationisalsoimportanttoinsureagainst incomerisksarisingfromcroppricefluctuations(Masseyetal.1993;StarkandBloom1985). MigrationaslivelihooddiversificationinMexico,particularlyinlightofenvironmental change,isalsosuggestedbyrecentlypublishedworkbySaldaaZorrillaandSandberg(2009)as wellasbyFengetal(2010).Usingdatafromthe2,443municipalitiesofMexico,Saldaa ZorrillaandSandbergseconometricanalysesrevealhigheremigrationratesfromMexican municipalitiesmorefrequentlyaffectedbynaturaldisastersandwithrelativelyhigher impoverishmentlevels.Operatingatthestatelevel,Fengetal.(2010)alsoidentifyan environmentalpushwithintriguingstatelevelassociationsbetweendeclinesincropyields andU.S.boundmigration. Overall,existingscienceinseveralarenasnaturalresources,livelihoods,vulnerabilityand migrationasadaptationformsanimportantfoundationforbringingexaminationof migrationenvironmentassociationstoruralMexico.Suchisespeciallythecasegiventhe importantsocial,economicandpoliticalaspectsofMexicanmigrationtotheU.S.,asreviewed next. Mexicomigrationpatternsandprocesses:MexicanmigrationtotheU.S.hasalong history.Sustained,massivemovementoflabormigrantsdatesbacktorecruitmenteffortsby U.S.employersintheearly20thCentury(Gamio1930;Foerster1925;Cardoso1980).Migration streamsplummetedduringtheGreatDepression(BalderramaandRodriguez2006;Hoffman 1924)butemergedagainduetoabinationallaboraccordwithMexico,theBraceroProgram, initiatedin1942(Calavita1992).WhiletheBraceroProgramwasdiscontinuedin1964aspart

ofbroadercivilrightsandimmigrationreform,immigrationfromMexicocontinued,both legallyandundocumented,inasomewhatcircularfashion(Masseyetal.2002).Considerable increasesinmigrationstreamsoccurredinthe1990sandformostofthefirstdecadeofthe21st Century(MartinandMidgley2010;PasselandCohn2009)asemigrationfromMexicoincreased (Beanetal.2001;HillandWong2005)andreturnmigrationratesplummeted(Masseyetal. 2002;Riosmena2004). Historically,muchoftheMexicoU.S.migrationflowshascomefromruralareasinCentral WesternMexico(Durandetal.2001;DurandandMassey2003).However,sincethe1980s, emigrationtotheU.S.fromlesstraditionalsendingregionsinruralSouthCentraland SoutheasternMexicohasincreasedconsiderably(especiallyinthelast15years,seeDurandand Massey2003)helpingfueltherecentsurgeoutofruralareasand,inparticular,ofless traditionalsendingcommunitiesinSouthernMexico(RiosmenaandMasseyforthcoming; RiosmenaandZenteno2010). RuralMexicanshave,ofcourse,alsomigratedtocitieswithinMexico(Garza2003;Lozano Ascencioetal.1999)andsomechangesintheseprocessesarealsoofimportancetothe presentproject.Ruralurbanflows,oncemainlydestinedforMexicoCity,Guadalajara,and Monterrey,havebeenincreasinglydirectedtowardbordercitiessincethe1980s(Lozano Ascencioetal.1999).Migrationtonortherncitiesisfueled,inlargepart,byemployment opportunitiesinexportprocessing(maquiladora)firms.Still,internalmigrantsarealsomore likelytoultimatelyemigratetotheU.S.ascomparedtolongerterm(nonmigrant)northern residents(Fussell2004;LozanoAscencioetal.1999).Thispatternsuggestsatleastpartofthe internalmigrantflowfromruralareasmayeventuallyyieldU.Sboundmigration.

Asbrieflynotedabove,explanationsforthetransformationinthegeographyofrural Mexicanmigrationareassociatedwiththedeepeconomicrestructuringof,andshocksto,the Mexicanpoliticaleconomy(FernandezKellyandMassey2007;Lustig1990;Masseyetal.2002; Nevins2007).Theseshockshavedisproportionatelyaffectedlivelihoodsinruralareasandin theSouthinparticular.Forinstance,considertheresultsofastudyoftheMexicaneconomy sincetheenactmentofNAFTA.Zepedaetal.(2009)pointoutthatthemanufacturingsectorhas gainedintermsofexports,productivityincreases,and,toalesserextent,jobgrowth.Still, primarysectoremploymenthassufferedthemostlosses(forsimilarviews,seeHanson2003; Polaski2004).Ofcourse,especiallyimportantfortheresearchoutlinedhere,manyrural regionsofMexicoremaindependentonagricultureforsubsistenceand/orasacomponentofa broaderlivelihoodstrategy(DeJanvryandSadoulet2001). Asnoted,recentlypublishedresearchbySaldaaZorillaandSandberg(2009)andFenget al.(2010)suggestintriguingmunicipalandstatelevelassociationsbetweenoutmigrationfrom ruralMexicoandenvironmentalpushfactors(namelynaturaldisastersanddecliningcrop yields,respectively).Yet,municipalandstatelevelanalysesdonotallowforadequatecontrol ofthemyriadhouseholdlevelfactorsshapingmigrationdecisionmaking(e.g.Hondagneu Sotelo1994;Lindstrom1996;Massey,Goldring,andDurand1994;MasseyandEspinosa1997; StarkandBloom1985).Therefore,whatremainsmissingfromtheresearchonMexican migrationisamorepreciseexaminationofthepotentialforenvironmentalfactorstobe includedinthesuiteofmigrationdrivers.Theworkpresentedhereoperatesatfinerscales, mostnotablythehouseholdandcommunitylevelsgiventherelevanceoftheformerasa decisionunit(Masseyetal.1993)andofthelatterintermsofsocioeconomicandnetwork

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processesassociatedwithmigrationdecisions(MasseyandEspinosa1997;Massey,Goldring andDurand1994).MakinguseoftheRuralLivelihoodsframework,weincludenatural capitalamongthemoretypicalpredictorsofmigrationhuman,financial,physical,andsocial capitals.GiventhepublicandpolicyattentiontobothclimatechangeandMexicanmigration, bringingtheenvironmentexplicitlyintohouseholdlevelanalysesofmigrationinthissettingis faroverdue.Here,weinvestigatethequestion:IsemigrationfromruralMexicoassociated withrecentpatternsofprecipitation,netofothersocioeconomicandpoliticalfactorsshaping emigrationpatterns? Data WeusedatafromtheMexicanMigrationProject(MMP),abinationalresearchinitiativebased atPrincetonUniversity(USA)andtheUniversityofGuadalajara(MX).Everyyearsince1987, theMMPselectsbetween4and6Mexicancommunitiesandinterviewsarandomsampleof approximately200households.TheMMPquestionnairecollectsbasicsociodemographicand retrospectivemigrationquestionsaboutallmembersofthehouseholdatthetimeofthe survey.Dataarealsocollectedonallchildrenofthehouseholdheadregardlessoftheirplaceof residence.Amongthesequestions,respondentsreportthedatesandduration(ifapplicable)of thefirstandlastU.S.tripforallmembersofthehousehold.Ourdependentvariablereflects emigrationtotheU.S.byanadulthouseholdmember(age15+)withintheyearpriortothe survey.Forthepurposesofthepresentproject,ouranalyticalfocusisoninternational migration,althoughweintendtoexpandupontheworkpresentedherewithadditional migrationstreams.Onemigration,aswouldbeanticipatedfromcontemporarytrends, outmigrationfromthesampledruralhouseholdsisacommonphenomenonwith

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approximately21%sendingamigranttotheUSduringthethreeyearspriortotheyearof observation. Atthehouseholdlevel,weincludemeasuresreflectingaccesstothevarietyofcapitals outlinedintheRuralLivelihoodsframeworkandcentraltohouseholdstrategies.Theseinclude humancapital(e.g.,householdsizeandcomposition,educationallevels),financialcapital(e.g., businessownership),physicalcapital(e.g.landandlivestockownership,possessionsi),and socialcapital(e.g.,headspriortriptotheUS).Astosamplecharacteristicsfortheselivelihood variables,humancapitalmeasuredatthehouseholdlevelshowsthathouseholdheadshave approximately5yearsofeducationand86%areemployedatthetimeofthesurvey.Overall, 40%ofhouseholdmembersareconsideredtobeinthelaborforce.Onaverage,26%of householdsengageinfarming,22%ownabusinessandapproximately6%havebothafarmas wellasbusiness.Ofthosewhoownland,approximately16%havetheirprimaryholdingin eithercommunalorejidoland.Asnotedprior,householdswhoseprimarylandholdingisejido territoryaremoreconstrainedinlivelihoodoptionsduetoincompletepropertyrightswhich lessenstheirfinancialandcapitalassetsaswellasdecreasesthehouseholdsabilitytoaccess formalcreditmarketsrelativetohouseholdswithprivateproperty. Centraltothisprojectisinclusionofvariablesreflectingtheavailabilityofnaturalcapitalas shapedbyrecentrainfalllevelsandvariability.Specifically,ourpredictorvariablesofcentral interestrepresentrainfallpatternswithinthe3yearwindowpriortohouseholdobservation. Wefollowedtheleadofmuchclimatescienceincalculatingastatesaverageannualrainfall asoverahistoric30yearperiod,inourcase19601990.Ayearinwhichrainfallisonestandard deviationbelowthestateshistoricaverageisclassifiedasadroughtyear.Inversely,arainy

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yearisoneinwhichcurrentrainfallisonestandarddeviationabovethestateshistorical average.Importantly,wefindsubstantialvariationinprecipitationregimeswithapproximately 23%ofoursamplesubjectedtoadroughtintheirsurveyyear.Inaddition13%ofoursample hadadroughttheyearpriortothesurveywhile3.6%hadadroughtinbothyears. Approximately28%ofoursampleexperiencedarainyyearintheirsurveyyear,while23%had arainyyeartheyearpriortothesurveyand7%hadarainyyearinbothyears. Thehouseholdandindividualleveldataweresupplementedwithinformationcollectedby theMMPatthecommunityandmunicipallevels.Thesedataincludeinformationreflecting householdsaccesstolivelihooddiversificationoptions,suchasmanufacturingfacilities,in additiontoinformationonlargerscalesocialcapital,suchascommunitylevelmigration prevalence(indicatingstrengthofbroadermigrantnetworks).Indeed,thisformofsocial capitaliswelldevelopedinmostcommunities,particularlyformen;Malemigrationprevalence tendstobebetween2550%whilefemalemigrationprevalenceofmostcommunitiesis between025%(seealsoMassey,Goldring,andDurand1994;FussellandMassey2004). (Table1,DescriptiveStatistics,abouthere) Giventhefocusonrurallivelihoods,oursampleisrestrictedtononurbancommunities. Ouranalysesmakeuseofdatafrom24,132households,withatotalof117,040persons,in66 nonurbancommunitieslocatedin12statessurveyedfromtheyearof1987to2005.Giventhat weincludestatelevelrainfalldata,onlystatesinwhichmorethanonecommunityhasbeen surveyedareincludedinoursample(seeAppendixA).Thisrestrictionwasnecessaryinorderto

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ensurerepresentationandvariationinstatelevelvariablesovertimeandenablesustoutilize statefixedeffectsinourregressionspecification. Methods Wefirstsimplygraphaggregatedmigrationandprecipitationtrendsacrosstime,bystate,to descriptivelyexaminetheirassociation.Importantly,wepresentmigrationtrendsonlyafterthe highlevelsofmigrationmotivatedbythe1986ImmigrationandReformControlAct(IRCA), whichprovidedamnestytoapproximately2.3millionseasonalandundocumentedMexican workersintheUS.Forthesebivariateassociations,communitieswereclassifiedaccordingto themajoritypercentageofthestatesclimatedistributionprovidedbythe2003studyby, INEGI,NationalInstituteofStatistics,Geography,andInformatics.Overallcategoriesinclude: warmdry,warmhumid,milddry,mildhumidandcold(INEGIAnuariosEstadisticosdelos Estados,2004).Withinthesecategories,rainfalltrendswerecalculatedasrecentdeviation fromthelongertermhistoricmean.Migrationprevalencerepresentsthenumberofadults reported,retrospectivelyasleavingineachyear. Wethendevelopeventhistorymultivariatemodelsand,giventhatmigrationisrootedin householddecisionprocesses(e.g.HondagneuSotelo1994;StarkandBloom1985),wemodel emigrationdecisionsatthisscale.Specifically,wemodelthelikelihoodthatatleastone householdmemberemigratestotheU.S.inthethreeyearspriortothesurveyasafunctionof communitylevel,householdlevelandenvironmentalfactors.Weoptedforathreeyearrecall windowforthreereasons:1)tominimizepotentialmemorybiases(Auriat1991;Belli1998; SmithandThomas2003);2)toincreasetherepresentativenessoftheanalysesbyavoiding goingtoofarbackintime,whentheexperienceofpeopleemigratingoutofthecommunityis

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lost;and3)tomaximizethenumberofcovariatesavailableformodelingpurposes.Clearly, timingrepresentsakeychallengeinworkingwiththeMMPdata.TheMMPisarepeatedcross sectionalsurveythatincludesretrospectivequestions.Wemadeuseofinformationfromthe retrospectivequestionstogenerateapseudopanelacrosstimeforeachhousehold.Evenso, manyofthecommunityandhouseholdcharacteristicsaremeasuredonlyatthetimeofthe survey.Thesestaticmeasurements,therefore,limitourabilitytoutilizeretrospective informationtoofarbackintimeduetotheobvioustemporalmismatch.Tobalancedataneeds withdataavailability,weusea3yearmigrationwindow,includingmigrationeventsonlyifthey occurredwithinthe3yearspriortosurveyobservation.Wefurtherworkedtominimize measurementerrorbyconvertingcommunitylevelmeasurestocategoricaldummyvariables. Asouroutcomeofinterestisatimedependentevent,whichhasaprobabilityof occurrencederivedfromacensoreddistribution,weemploydiscretetimeeventsurvival analysistechniques.FollowingAllison(1982;seealsoSingerandWillett2003),wedothisby fittingalogisticregressionmodelingthelikelihoodofU.S.migrationwhileconsideringthe exposuretotheriskofemigrationofeachunitofanalysis.Todoso,weestimatethemodelon asetofpseudoobservations,inthiscasehouseholdyearsofexposurebeforehousehold membersemigration.TocontrolforthechangingeconomicconditionsinMexicoweemploy bothstateandyearfixedeffectsandtoaddressthefactthathouseholddecisionsmaybe correlatedatacommunitylevel,weclusterourstandarderrorsaccordingly. Results First,Figures13presenttrendlinesforsampledMexicancommunitiesgroupedby environmentalregion.Asnotedabove,theregionsaremilddry,mildhumid,andwarmhumid,

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asclassifiedwithintheMMPandbasedonthe2003studybyINEGI,NationalInstituteof StatisticsandGeography,whichprovidesclimatezonecategorizationforeachstateinMexico. Thefiguresclearlyhintatanassociationbetweenrainfallpatternsandemigration.Forexample, inmilddryregions(Figure1),therelativelywetyearof1994wasassociatedwithrelativelylow levelsofoutmigrationfromstudycommunitieswhilemigrationincreasedfollowingthe1999 rainfalldeficit.Inwarmhumidregions(Figure2),weseeconsistentlyhighlevelsof precipitationaccompaniedbyasteadydeclineinemigration.Finally,inmildhumidregions (Figure3),bothemigrationandrainfallhaverecentlybeenexperiencingupwardtrends,but lookingcarefully,weseeafairlyconsistentnegativecorrelationwithlowprecipitationyears characterizedbyrelativelyhighemigration(see1988,1994),andviceversa(see1990,1991, and1995). (Figures13abouthere) Thefindingsfromourlogitmodelshedadditionallightandare,forthemostpart,consistent withmanyofthestudiesmentionedinthebackgroundsection.Humancapitalvariables suggesthouseholdswithmoreeducatedheadsarelesslikelytosendaninternationalmigrant, perhapsrelatedtoenhancedlocalopportunitiestodiversifylivelihoods.Household compositionisalsoassociatedwithemigration,withconsistentlypositivecoefficients suggestinglargerhouseholdsaremorelikelytosendmigrantsasmightbeanticipated.Suchis notthecase,however,inhouseholdswithrelativelymoredaughters,whicharelesslikelyto sendaninternationalmigranttotheUS.Onfinancialcapital,employmentofheadandbusiness ownershipdampenemigrationprobabilities,againlikelyduetoexistingdiversification

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strategies.Assetsandlandownershiptendstoincreasehouseholdemigrationprobabilitywhile socialcapitalgainedthroughpriormigrationdoesindeedenhancethelikelihoodofemigration. Keytoouranalysesisinclusionofnaturalcapitalmeasuresandthemodelsyieldintriguing findings.Netoftheincorporatedhuman,physical,financialandsocialcapitalvariables, environmentalfactorsretainstatisticallysignificantpredictiveabilitywithregardtoemigration. Considerdrought.Netoftheotherincludedhouseholdandcommunitylevelcharacteristics, householdsexperiencingadroughtintheyearunderconsiderationhave29%higheroddsof sendinganinternationalmigranttotheU.S.thanahouseholdnotexperiencingadrought.1 While,ifthehouseholdexperiencedarainfalldeficittheyearprior,oddsare39%greaterof internationalmigration.Yet,theassociationisevenmoresubstantialwhenconsideringa longertermrainfalldeficit.Householdsexperiencinga2yeardroughtareoverthreetimesas likelyasotherhouseholdstosendaninternationalmigranttotheU.S. Asmightbeanticipatedbasedonthedroughtresults,higherthanaveragerainfallisthen associatedwithlesseremigrationprobabilities.Householdswithrainfallabundanceintheyear underexamination,relativetohistoricaverages,have30%loweroddsofsendingan internationalmigrant and 40%loweroddsifhigherlevelsofrainfallcharacterizedtheyear prior. Ontheotherhand,theestimateoftheassociationbetweenemigrationprobabilitiesand higherthanaveragerainfalloverbothyearsdidnotreachstatisticalsignificance. Ofcourse,itislogicaltoassumerainfallismostlikelytoimpacthouseholdswithresource dependentlivelihoodstrategies.Assuch,wealsoestimateemigrationasafunctionofrainfall interactedwithindicatorsforhouseholdswhoengageinfarming,workinagricultureorown

Thepercentageincreaseinoddsisobservedusingabaseofanoddsratioof1. 17

livestock.Here,somewhatcounterintuitiveresultsemerge.Twoyearrainfalldeficitsactually decreasetheoddsoffarminghouseholdssendinganinternationalmigrantby35%ascompared tononfarmhouseholdsata10%significancelevel.Similarly,theoddsofinternational migrationdeclineforhouseholdswherethehouseholdheadisworkinginagriculture,with40% loweroddsofsendinganinternationalmigrantcomparedtotheeffectofatwoyeardrought onhouseholdswithanonagriculturalhead.Itislikelythatthesepatternshintatincome constraints.Internationalmigrationisacostlyendeavorandperhapsunavailableto agriculturaldependenthouseholdintimesofparticularlivelihoodstress. Discussion&Conclusion

Humanmigrationisacomplexsocialprocesscontingentonoriginanddestinationbased factorsofwhichclimatevariabilitymaybeanimportantone.Assuggestedbypriorworkin contextsasvariedasMali,EthiopiaandBurkinaFaso,theresearchpresentedherefindsan associationbetweenrainfallpatternsandemigrationfromruralMexicototheU.S.,withdry yearsgenerallyactingasamigrantpushandwetyearsinhibitingemigration. InruralMexico,asinruralregionsacrosstheworldslessdevelopednations,environmental changehasdirectimpactsonhealthandwellbeingofresidentssincenaturalresourcesare oftencentraltoincomegenerationactivitiesand/oressentialinmeetingbasicliving requirements(KoziellandSaunders2001).Giventhisresourcedependence,changesinweather andclimatepatternsholdtremendouspotentialtoimpactlivelihoodsand,inthefaceofa declineinlivelihoodoptions,migrationbecomesasignificantadaptivelivelihoodstrategy(e.g. Adger2006;McLemanandSmit2006).

18

CurrentclimatemodelsforLatinAmericaprojectmeanwarmingfrom1to6C,andanet increaseinthenumberofpeopleexperiencingwaterstresswithintheregion(IPCC2007). SpecifictoMexicosmostvaluableagriculturalexport,coffee,Gayetal.(2006)projectclimate changemayyielda34%reductioninproductioninVeracruz,potentiallymakingcoffeeno longeraneconomicallyviablelivelihoodstrategy(seealsoNevins2007;Zepedaetal.2009). ClearlyenvironmentalchangeholdsimportantpotentialtoimpactruralMexicanslivelihood strategies,andtherebyinfluencemigrationpatterns.Indeed,ourresultsfindaprominent associationbetweenemigrationfromruralMexicoandrecentpatternsofprecipitation,netof othersocioeconomicandpoliticalfactorsshapingmigrationpatterns. Thepreliminaryworkoutlinedherepresentsmanydirectionsforfutureresearchthrough expansionofbothsocialandenvironmentaldimensions.Onthesocialdimensions,weaimto disaggregatemigrationstreamsbothbydestination(toexamineinternalandinternational migration),whilealsoexploringdifferentmigrationoutcomesforMexicanmenandwomen. Ontheenvironmentaldimension,weaimtointegrateadditionalaspectsofenvironmental changeincludingtemperaturefluctuationsandshiftsinvegetationcoverage.Ofcourse,we couldalsoexplorethepullofdesirablenaturalattributes;WithintheU.S.,astatelevel associationexistsbetweenclimateandmigrationwithdesirableweatherattributes(warmer temperatures,lesshumidity)associatedwithpositivenetmigration(Postonetal.2009).In Ghana,regionswithgreateraccesstonaturalcapitalexperiencehigherlevelsofinmigration (VanderGesest,VrielingandDietz2010). Thepublic,policyandacademicrealmshaverecentlypaidincreasingattentiontothe potentialforenvironmentalchangetoalterpatternsofhumanmigration.Social,political,

19

economicandenvironmentalpressuresconvergeinruralMexicoregionswherethepresent studysuggestsreductionofproximatenaturalcapitalmayenhancethelikelihoodof householdstappingintomigrationslivelihoodpotential.Certainlysuchevidencesuggeststhat theenvironmentaldimensionsoflivelihoodstrategies,includingemigration,deserveadditional, focusedresearchattention.

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Figure1

Proportional Migrant and Rainfall Trends in Mild Dry Regions

1 .5 1990 .6 .7 .8 .9

1995 year of observation Migrants

2000 Rainfall

2005

States in Mild Dry Region: Aguascalientes, Chihuahua, Guanajuato San Luis Potosi and Zacatecas

Figure2
Proportional Migrant and Rainfall Trends in Warm Humid Regions
1 .2 1990 .4 .6 .8

1995 year of observation Migrants

2000 Rainfall

2005

States in Warm Humid Region: Colima, Guerrero, Jalisco, Michoacan,Oaxaca and Veracruz

Figure3

27

Table1:MeansandStandardDeviationsofCommunityandHouseholdCovariates Variable CommunityLevelCharacteristics FemaleLaborForceParticipationbetween010% FemaleLaborForceparticipationbetween1020% FemaleLaborForceparticipationbetween2030% ProportionofFemalesinManufacturingover50% MaleAgriculturalworkParticipationover50% FemaleMigrationPrevalencein1990between025% FemaleMigrationPrevalencein1990between2550% MaleMigrationPrevalencein1990between2550% MaleMigrationPrevalencein1990between5075% MaleMigrationPrevalencein1990between75100% HouseholdCharcteristics DependentVariable: Householdsendsamigrant HumanCapital Householdsize PercentageofHHinLaborForce Householdheademployed Householdheadeducation FinancialCapital Householdhasbusiness SocialCapital HouseholdheadnumberoftripstoUS PhyscialCapital Primarypropertyiseithercommunityorejidoland NaturalCapital CurrentYearisaDroughtYear CurrentYearisRainyYear LastYearwasaDroughtYear LastYearwasaRainyYear TwoDroughtYearshaveOccurredinRow TwoRainyYearshaveOccurredinaRow RelianceonNaturalCapital Householdengagedinfarming Householdhasbothfarmandbusiness Householdownslivestock Householdheadworksinagriculture %/Mean Std.Dev

26.70% 60.70% 12.60% 8.00% 48.70% 86.50% 13.50% 62.80% 22.70% 1.00%

0.442 0.488 0.332 0.271 0.500 0.342 0.342 0.483 0.419 0.099

20.60%

0.404

4.85 39.70% 85.50% 5.00

2.369 0.234 0.352 4.355

22.10%

0.415

1.53

3.847

15.70%

0.364

23.30% 27.90% 13.10% 22.60% 3.60% 6.80%

0.423 0.449 0.338 0.418 0.186 0.251

26.30% 6.20% 28.00% 34.50%

0.440 0.241 0.450 0.476

28

Table2:DiscreteTimelogitPredictingtheLikelihoodofaHouseholdSendingaMigrant 1 SE ommunityLevelCharacteristics ProportionofFemalesinManufacturingisover50% MaleAgriculturalWorkParticipationisover50% MaleMigrationPrevalencein1990wasbetween2550% HouseholdCharacteristics HumanCapital HeadofHouseEducation AgeofHeadofHousehold Spouse'sEducation LifecycleYoungChildren LifecycleYoungandTeenageChildren LifecycleTeenageChildrenOnly LifecycleAdultChildren PercentageofDaughterstoHouseholdMembers FinancialCapital TheHouseholdhasaBusiness PercentageoftheHouseholdthatisintheLaborForce HouseholdHeadisemployed PhysicalCapital PrimaryPropertyiseitherCommunityorEjidoLand PercentageofAmenitiesownedbyHousehold(outof11) NumberoflivestockownedbyHH SocialCapital HouseholdHeadNumberofTripstotheUS NaturalCapital CurrentYearisaDroughtYear CurrentYearisaRainyYear LastYearwasaDroughtYear LastYearwasaRainyYear AdroughthasOccurredTwoYearsinaRow ARainyyearhasOccurredTwoYearsinaRow RelianceonNaturalCapital HouseholdisEngagedinFarming HouseholdOwnsLivestock HouseholdheadworksinAgriculture InteractionFarm&TwoYearDrought InteractionOwnsLivestock&TwoyearDrought InteractionHHHeadWorksinAg&TwoYearDrought

2 SE

3 SE

0.666*** 0.454** 0.571***

(0.204) (0.177) (0.159)

0.671*** 0.449** 0.565***

(0.204) (0.175) (0.159)

0.673*** 0.445** 0.558***

(0.204) (0.175) (0.160)

0.0616*** 0.0133*** 0.0498*** 1.327*** 1.702*** 0.694** 1.474*** 0.637***

(0.0107) 0.0599*** (0.00393) 0.0134*** (0.0118) 0.0495*** (0.194) 1.333*** (0.200) 1.710*** (0.310) 0.706** (0.222) 1.482*** (0.158) 0.639***

(0.0107) (0.0039) (0.0118) (0.194) (0.202) (0.311) (0.224) (0.159)

0.0603*** (0.0107) 0.0135*** (0.00393) 0.0491*** (0.0119) 1.332*** (0.194) 1.710*** (0.202) 0.709** (0.311) 1.485*** (0.224) 0.640*** (0.159)

0.320*** (0.0834) 0.304*** (0.0792) 0.304*** (0.0793) 0.574*** (0.128) 0.574*** (0.128) 0.577*** (0.128) 0.225* (0.116) 0.264** (0.117) 0.262** (0.117)

0.365*** 1.338*** 0.115***

(0.126) 0.361*** (0.126) 0.366*** (0.127) (0.252) 1.353*** (0.251) 1.358*** (0.252) (0.0310) 0.117** (0.0459) 0.115** (0.0461)

0.205***

(0.0167) 0.205*** (0.0169) 0.205*** (0.0169)

0.254** 0.361*** 0.329** 0.500*** 1.228*** 0.329

(0.128) 0.253** (0.128) 0.254** (0.128) (0.139) 0.363*** (0.139) 0.363*** (0.139) (0.148) 0.330** (0.148) 0.332** (0.148) (0.133) 0.502*** (0.132) 0.502*** (0.132) (0.464) 1.224*** (0.463) 1.385*** (0.472) (0.235) 0.335 (0.235) 0.336 (0.234)

0.0986

0.0913

0.116 0.0228 0.0876

(0.0924) (0.114) (0.111)

0.113 0.0283 0.106 0.444** 0.237 0.501**

(0.0930) (0.115) (0.112) (0.204) (0.545) (0.250)

Intercept 3.956*** (0.826) 3.939*** (0.815) 3.938*** (0.813) StateFixedEffects Yes Yes Yes YearFixedEffects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes CommunityFemaleLaborForceParticipationControls Yes Yes Yes CommunityFemaleMigrationPrevalencein1990QuartileCon Yes Yes CommunityMaleMigrationPrevalencein1990QuartileContro Yes Yes Spouse'sEducationandNumberofUStripsControls Yes Yes Yes Observations 24,132 24,132 24,132 Robuststandarderrorsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1 *Allresultsgiveninlogodds

29

Appendix A1)
i

S ta te s ,C om m u n itite s an d H H ob s erv a tion s in S am ple S tate C om m unitite s H H O bservations P erc e ntofS am ple A g uasc a lientes C olim a C hihuahua G ua najua to G ue rrero J alis c o Mic hoac an O axac a P uebla S an L uis P otos i V era c ruz Z ac a tec a s T otal 2 3 3 12 3 11 6 4 2 9 6 5 66 650 1 ,0 2 7 1 ,2 6 6 4 ,1 8 1 977 3 ,6 1 3 2 ,3 6 9 1 ,7 0 4 549 3 ,1 7 6 2 ,0 2 3 2 ,5 9 7 24 ,1 3 2 2.69 4.26 5.25 1 7.33 4.05 1 4.97 9.82 7.06 2.27 1 3.16 8.38 1 0.76 1 00

TheMMPincludesmeasuresof11amenities/possessionswithinstudyhouseholds:runningwater, electricity,sewage,astove,arefrigerator,awashingmachine,asewingmachine,aradio,atelevision,a stereoandatelephone.

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