Currency Insight

A Daily Comprehensive Report on Currency

13 September 2011

Technical Recommendation
Exchange USDINR-MCX-Sx USDINR-NSE EUROINR-MCX SX GBPINR MCX SX JPYINR MCX SX Contract SEPT SEPT SEPT SEPT SEPT S2 46.6058 46.8217 63.2742 73.9558 59.5867 S1 46.9492 47.0783 63.8458 74.4692 60.4933 Close 47.2925 47.3350 64.4175 74.9825 61.4000 R1 47.4867 47.4658 64.7433 75.2867 61.8983 R2 47.6808 47.5967 65.0692 75.5908 62.3967

Recommendation Buy at 47.20-21 TP 47.40-60 SL 47.08 Buy at 47.20-21 TP 47.40-60 SL 47.08 Sell at 64.60-65 TP 63.95 SL 64.90 Buy at 74.75-78 TP 75.40 SL 74.50 Buy at 61.20-25 TP 61.70 SL 60.90

Previous days performance

Exchange USDINR-MCX-Sx USDINR-NSE EUROINR-MCX SX GBPINR MCX SX JPYINR MCX SX Contract SEPT SEPT SEPT SEPT SEPT Recommendation Buy at 46.70-73 TP 47.20-60 SL 46.58 Buy at 46.70-73 TP 47.20-60 SL 46.58 Sell at 64.20-25 TP 63.55 SL 64.40 Sell at 74.25-30 TP 73.80 SL 74.50 Buy at 59.90-95 TP 60.60 SL 59.65 Performance Call not initiated but view right Call not initiated but view right Ignored Call Ignored Call Call not initiated but view right

Market Recap: The Indian rupee continued its downward trend and ended on a new yearly low. The weaker IIP numbers and strong dollar demand kept the rupee under pressure The Rupee finally ended at 47.23 a depreciation of 1.23 percent Indian equities on Monday ended on a negative note following the lower IIP inflation numbers and a global sell off. The S&P Nifty ended at 4946 lower by 2.23 % On Friday, FII's net sold 974 Cr worth of equities while they bought 195 Cr worth of debt instruments. Bond yields closed higher on Friday as demand for debt instruments increased amidst volatile equities. Yield on 2020 government bond closed at 8.3020 higher by 1 bps from previous close Call money market rates closed lower as demand in money market decreased; the weighted average call money market rate ended at 8.02% down by 0.50% from previous close Against the GBP, and the Yen the rupee depreciated by 0.77, and 2.29 percent respectively. Against the EURO it appreciated by 0.19 percent.

OUTLOOK

Wall Street rebounded towards the end of the trading session as short covering gave the indices a gain of about 1%. The Euro recovered from seven month lows after short covering and news suggested that China could help Italy get out of its debt problems by buying Italian bonds. The Asian markets have taken a leaf out of this and are trading on the higher side. The SGX nifty is also showing an uptick of about half a percent. These factors point to a slightly positive rupee. On the economic data from the UK we have the CPI m/m which are expected to come in at 0.60% this can have a slight negative impact on its currency. From the US we have the Monthly Budget statement and the Import price index, both will have a major effect on the USD. While the Budget statement could prove to be negative the lower import price index can be positive for the USD, so overall a mixed effect on the USD. The Dollar Index is negative at 77.08 For today, we can see the rupee to have a slight recovery due to the slight bounce back in Euro and the stronger global equities. But the strong dollar demand could keep a cap on the gains. The range for the day is seen between 46.90-47.30

Mail Us at currencyresearch@karvy.com

Currency Insight
A Daily Comprehensive Report on Currency Major Economic Events
Date Time 09/13/2011 14:00 09/13/2011 17:00 09/13/2011 18:00 09/13/2011 23:30 Currency GBP USD USD USD Event CPI (MoM) NFIB Small Business Optimism Import Price Index (MoM) Monthly Budget Statement Period AUG AUG AUG AUG Survey 0.60% 88.4 -0.80% -$132.0B Prior 0.00% 89.9 0.30% -$90.5B Impact Negative Negative Positive Negative

Technical Update USD/INR-June Futures: NSE/MCX-SX: Currency pair USD/INR closed higher after opening gap up. It witnessed a low of 46.35 levels, the days high stood at 46.71 levels. It gained by 0.74 % over the prior trading session. The pair is expected to take support at these levels and we could see a slight reversal from here and could test previous resistances of 46.42. For today selling can be done at higher levels Resistance is at 46.85 and then 46.98 levels. Support is at 46.59 and then 46.42 levels.

USDINR Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11

OPEN 46.80 47.03 47.33 47.53

HIGH 47.34 47.50 48.32 47.78

LOW 46.80 47.42 47.29 47.42

MCX-SX PVO Analysis CLOSE % CHANGE 47.29 1.30 47.44 1.28 47.58 1.23 47.71 1.18

VOLUME 3,236,887 174,638 87,399 26,162

% CHANGE OPEN INTEREST -2.34 846,079 26.60 199,145 -2.26 117,700 4.35 52,256

% CHANGE 9.73 7.94 -7.17 -58.78

USDINR Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11

OPEN 46.95 47.15 47.34 47.52

HIGH 47.34 47.50 47.63 47.76

LOW 46.95 47.14 47.26 47.43

NSE PVO Analysis CLOSE % CHANGE 47.34 1.35 47.45 1.35 47.58 1.29 47.73 1.24

VOLUME 2,382,591 242,599 55,281 54,822

% CHANGE OPEN INTEREST 6.75 1,400,802 19.78 353,762 25.49 108,069 -18.60 151,358

% CHANGE 13.41 -1.58 -0.36 -6.20

USDINR Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11

MCX-SX Spread Sheet Sep-11 Oct-11 0.0000 0.1500 0.0000 0.2900 0.1400 0.4200 0.2700

Nov-11

Dec-11

0.0000 0.0000

0.0000

USDINR Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11

NSE Spread Sheet Sep-11 Oct-11 0.0000 0.1125 0.0000 0.2475 0.1350 0.3900 0.2775

Nov-11

Dec-11

0.0000 -0.0468

0.0000

Mail Us at currencyresearch@karvy.com

Currency Insight
A Daily Comprehensive Report on Currency
Major World Indices INDICES NIFTY SENSEX NASDAQ LAST 4946.80 16501.74 2495.09 1 Day ago 5059.45 16866.97 2467.99 10992.13 2497.75 8737.66 19866.63 5214.65 % Change -2.23 -2.17 1.10 0.63 #VALUE! -2.31 -4.21 -1.63

FORWARDS 1-Mth Forward 3-Mth Forward 6-Mth Forward 12-Mth Forward 1-Mth NDF 3-Mth NDF 6-Mth NDF 12-Mth NDF

LAST 47.3947 47.6674 47.9438 48.3450 47.5400 47.8900 48.2300 48.8000

1 Day ago 46.7542 47.0658 47.4130 47.9325 46.9900 47.3200 47.6900 48.3400

% Change 1.37 1.28 1.12 0.86 1.17 1.20 1.13 0.95

Annu(%) 1.37% 3.83% 6.72% 10.33% 1.17% 3.61% 6.79% 11.42%

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL 11061.12 SHANGHAI COMPOSITE #N/A N/A NIKKIE 225 HANGSENG FTSE Index 8535.67 19030.54 5129.62

Asian Currency Pairs ASIAN/INR Chinese Yuan Hongkong Dollar Indonesian Rupiah Myanmar Ringgit Philipinnes Peso Singapore Dollar Taiwan Dollar Thailand Baht LAST 7.3740 6.0530 0.5483 15.5905 1.1034 38.2440 1.6027 1.5655 1 Day ago 7.2890 5.9730 0.5429 15.5204 1.0947 37.9071 1.5944 1.5488 % Change 1.17 1.34 0.99 0.45 0.79 0.89 0.52 1.08 INDICATORS LIBOR 1Mth LIBOR 3Mth MIBOR 1Mth MIBOR 3Mth U.S. 5Yr Bond Yield U.S. 10Yr Bond Yield India 10Yr Bond Yield Call Rate
CROSS

Debt Market Information LAST 0.2286 0.3429 1.3400 1.5300 0.8646 1.9475 8.2890 8.0500
LAST 47.23 47.29 47.34 64.42 74.98 61.41 77.11

1 Day ago 0.2261 0.3379 1.3400 1.5300 0.8023 1.9183 8.3090 8.0200
1 Day ago 46.57 46.69 46.71 64.50 74.41 59.98 77.19

% Change 1.11 1.46 0.00 0.00 7.77 1.52 -0.24 0.37

% Change 1.42 1.30 1.35 -0.12 0.77 2.39 -0.11

Reference Rates as on 9/12/2011 Pair USDINR GBPINR JPYINR 100 EURINR LAST 46.97 74.22 60.98 63.66 1 Day ago 46.38 74.01 59.87 64.48 % Change 1.27 0.28 1.85 -1.27

USDINR Spot MCX-SX Futures NSE Futures EURO Futures GBP Futures JPY (100) Futures ICE Dollar Index

Disclaimer The information and views presented in this report are prepared by Karvy Stock Broking Limited. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned in this report, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned in this document. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.

Mail Us at currencyresearch@karvy.com