Researchers Workshop on Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific

Manila, Philippines 14 September 2011

Session 1: How climate change interacts with other migration drivers (Tajikistan)
Parviz KHAKIMOV

The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The countries listed in this paper do not imply any view on ADB's part as to sovereignty or independent status or necessarily conform to ADB's terminology.

1.
2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

Review of recent studies on a environmental change and migration

What are the other migration drivers Disaster Damage in Tajikistan Vulnerability of Tajikistan to climate change Agricultural sector the most vulnerable due to climate change Adaptation strategy Further studies

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1. Review of recent studies on environmental change and migration

Environmental migration in Tajikistan, Migration as a tool for climate change adaptation, IOM Dushanbe, Tajikistan, 2011 (unpublished report) Environmental degradation, migration, resettlement of population within the country and vulnerability of rural population in Tajikistan, 2011 (unpublished report) Climate change survey in Tajikistan, 2010, http://www.osce.org/tajikistan/ Economic dynamics of Labour Migrant remittances in Tajikistan, IOM, Dushanbe, Tajikistan, 2008, http://www.iom.tj/publication/ Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios Tajikistan case study. www.each-for.eu/documents/CSR_Tajikistan_090330.pdf

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2. Rate of GDP and Population growth, %

18.0 14.0 10.0 6.0 2.0
1.7 65.6 70.1 74.4 76.2 78 100.0 8.9 5.3 3.7 8.3

16 11 9.6 10.8 10.3 6.7 7 7.8 6.5 7.9 3.4

120.0 100.0 80.0 2009 2010 60.0 40.0 20.0

1992

1991

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

-6.0

67.7 -5.4

62.1

-5

-4.3

-10.0
-14.0 -18.0 -22.0 -26.0 -30.0

56.7 44.6 39.1 33.2 32.6 42.9 36.2 34.9 39.2 47.5

52.7

58.3

-26.9

2008

-2.0

0.0
Annual rate of population growth GDP relative to 1991 (%) - auxiliary axis Annual rate of GDP growth

Source: Own compilation based on the data of Agency on Statistics Republic of Tajikistan. Statistical yearbook 14/09/2011 Socio-economic indicators, 2004, 2010

2. Development of Population in Tajikistan, 1897-2009 (in 000)

8000
Total 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Urban Rural

Source: own compilation based on: State Statistics Committee of Tajikistan. Population of the Republic of Tajikistan in 2000, (census data 20-27 January 2000) , Annual statistical demographic yearbook, 2009 14/09/2011 5

2. Population Change in Tajikistan, 1913-2010, Intercensal period

100
90 80 70 60 50 40
37 33 35 33 27 17 9 10 26.4 67 63 65 67 91 90 83 73 73.6

Urban

Rural

30
20 10 0 1913 1926 1939 1959 1970 1979 1989

2000

2010*

Note: The data for 2010 is the current statistics data.

Source: own compilation based on: State Statistics Committee of Tajikistan. Population of the Republic of Tajikistan in 2000, (census data 20-27 January 2000) , Demographic yearbook, 2010. 14/09/2011 6

2. Unemployment rate
Official statistics (%)
3 2 1 0 2000 30 25
20.9 23.3 20.4 14.1 11.5 9.6 5.9 2.1 2.6 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.2 2.3 9.4 5.7 8.5 20.4 16.2 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.4 2 1.9

2.2
2.3

2.3 2.2

2001

2002

2003

2004
27.2

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

21.5 19.1

20 15 10 5 0

16.9

16.8

Tajikistan

Urban

Rural

MBAR LFS -2009

Sughd

Khatlon

Dushanbe

DRS

Official statistics (2009)

Unemployment+underemployment (LFS-2009)

Source: Own compilation based on the data of Agency on Statistics Republic of Tajikistan. Statistical yearbook 14/09/2011 Labour market in 2010 and LFS-2009 data.

2. Labour Migrants

Remittances
3000.0
53.0

60.0
2670.5 39.2 36.2 31.0 1744.0 1800.1

Remittances as a % of GDP in 2007 Jamaica Haiti Jordan Guyana Lebanon

19.4 20 22.7 23.5 24.4 24.5 28.7 35.1 38.3 45.5

2500.0 2000.0
1500.0 1000.0
664.6 26.0

45.5

50.0
2200.0

38.5

40.0
30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0

1127.3

Honduras Lesotho Tonga

500.0 0.0

443.6

Moldova
Tajikistan

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Remittances as a % of GDP, auxiliary axis

Remittances, mln. USD
Source: own compilation based on National Bank of Tajikistan, World Bank and Agency on Statistics data 14/09/2011

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Source: World Bank , 2007

2. POVERTY
90.0 80.0
72.4

83.0

70.0

68.8 62.4

60.0
50.0

53.5 49.3

54.4 47.2 41.8 49.2

40.0
30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1999 2003 Total Urban 2007 Rural 2009

Source: own compilation based on Tajik Living Measurement Standard Survey data for 1999, 2003, 2007, 2009 14/09/2011 9

2. Development of GDP and GNI in Tajikistan

1200
1057.3

1000

1005.2 924.1
723.1

800 600 400

200 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
158
158

757.2 566 375.9 171.2

171.2 696.8

683.2

434.6
404.8

515.5

202.2
190

275.3
309.7

337.6

236.7

2007

2008

2009

2010

GDP per capita (US$)

GNI per capita (US$)

Source: Own compilation based on the data of Agency on Statistics Republic of Tajikistan. Statistical yearbook 14/09/2011 Socio-economic indicators and Demographic yearbook , 2010

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3. Disaster damage in Tajikistan 2000-2007

Year Population Affected 24,036 12,910 145,940 10,116 6,725 9,686 45,405 2,097 256,915 Houses Damaged 3,231 1,889 18,542 8,041 3,961 4,789 7,873 5,742 54,068 Number of People Killed 11 18 41 20 19 47 30 57 243 Damage in Somoni 95,954,000 209,930,500 130,200,500 67,558,000 72,302,100 103,666,000 104,625,000 95,742,460 879,978,560 Damage in US Dollars 31,985,000 69,977,000 40,547,009 22,666,667 24,100,000 34,555,333 30,326,086 27,354,990 281,512,086

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total

Source: Information Management and Analytical Center, Committee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense under the Government of Tajikistan.

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4. Vulnerability of Tajikistan to climate change The recent Climate Vulnerability Monitor classified Tajikistans vulnerability to climate change as severe and very acute for the present (2010) and near future (2030), highlighting in particular an increase in weather related disaster and an already acute level of economic stress.

Source: DARA and the Climate Vulnerable Forum, Climate Vulnerability Monitor 2010 The State of Climate Crisis,, p. 48, 2010

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4. An Index of Vulnerability to Climate Change across Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Countries

4. An Index of Adaptive capacity to Climate Change across ECA Countries

Note: vulnerability index combines three subindices capturing a countrys exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity, is estimated by combining social (income inequality), economic (GDP per capita), and institutional measures
13 14/09/2011 Source: Fay and Patel, World Bank, Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia, p. 23-

24, 2009, http://www.worldbank.org/eca/climate/ECA_CCA_Full_Report.pdf

5. Agricultural sector the most vulnerable due to climate change

CA countries economy largely based on irrigated farming.

The processes such as soil degradation, desertification, deforestation, soil salinity, different types of soil erosion, wetland, rising groundwater levels are among the drivers of migration due to environmental degradation (degradation due to natural disaster and man-made disaster). Predominantly population in CA countries live in countryside (Tajikistan 73%) and employed in agricultural sector (66% of economically active population)

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6. Adaptation strategy agricultural sector Adaptation will require more sustainable use of water, starting with implementation of low water consuming technologies and more effective irrigation management. It may also include reservoirs and regulation of runoff (Fay and
Patel, World Bank, Adapting to Climate Change in ECA, 2009).

Promotion of technologies for sustainable land use (including soil management, extend the area of crop rotation, broad introduction of the bred varieties), crop fertility, processing volume of agricultural products and livestock.

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7. Further studies
Further studies should be the ex-ante studies based on the main findings of previous studies. General or Partial Equilibrium Model should be used in order to define effects on welfare change and adaptive capacity change. Suggested scenario for Tajikistan are follows: What if the volume of labour migration and labour migrants remittances are decreased; What will be happen if develop the insurance market; What if sustainable water management and regulation water runoff are in place; What if are taken measure in order to reduce the land degradation and how it affect to the volume of labour migration, etc. In general how different scenario will impact in adaptive capacity of population to Climate Change and migration intensity.

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