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CN3135 Process Safety, Health and Environment

A/Prof Reginald Tan ( Room: E5-02-14

Lecture 3: Consequence Modelling - Source term calculation - Dispersion modelling

Source Models
Source models enable us to calculate or estimate the amount or flowrate (source term) of hazardous materials released under various situations. e.g. evaporation from an open vessel (eqn. 3-12), vessel filling (eqn. 3-23), liquid or vapour leak from a tank, vapour flow through a long pipe, flashing liquids (all in Chp. 4) Obvious links to thermodynamics and fluid mechanics. C Consequence M d lli combining the source term Modelling bi i th t with dispersion modelling and effect modelling to evaluate the consequence of a hazardous incident, e.g. in terms of % death from toxic exposure or % structures destroyed by explosion.

Source Models (Chp. 4)

1. Flow of Liquid through an Orifice Eqn 4-7

Qm = AC0 2 Po

C0 is the orifice discharge coefficient: 0.61 for flow through a sharp edged orifice 0.81 for flow through a short pipe 1.00 for flow through a smooth and rounded orifice Where the geometry is uncertain, use C0 = 1.0. 2. Flow of Liquid through Pipes covered in Fluid Mech., so ignore for this module.

Source Models (Chp. 4)

3. Flow of Vapour through an Orifice Eqn 4-48

Qm = AC0 Po f ( M , R, To , , P, Po

P0 is the upstream pressure P is the downstream pressure Check for Choked Flow: Eqn 4-49
P 2 = +1 P o choked

If (P/Po)actual < (P/Po)choked, then flow is Choked.

Source Models (Chp. 4)

The Choked Flow condition represents a maximum compressible vapour flow through the orifice. The fluid velocity at the throat is equal to the local speed of sound, i.e. Ma = 1. For Unchoked Flow:
Qm = AC0 Po
+1 2 2 M P P P Rg To 1 Po o

Eqn 4-48 E 4 48

In many practical situations, vapour flow through an orifice is choked. Use eqn (4-50) for choked flow.

Source Models (Chp. 4)

4. Vapour Flow through a Pipe (Adiabatic Case) From differential energy balance (eqn 4-54), assuming = 0 (ignore change in elevation, OK for gases) dWs = 0 (no shaft work or pumping) and f = constant (fully-developed turbulent flow). Solution in terms of Ma, eqns 4-56 to 4-60. Check: If flow is Choked (Pdownstream < Pchoked from 4-64), then eqns 4-63 to 4-67 apply. N.B. In most practical situations, choked flow arises.

See Example 4-5 on p. 147.
PRV N2 200 psig regulator N2 81 psig EO storage

Consider 3 cases: (a) Treat as choked orifice flow - Overestimate. Use if piping details are unavailable. (b) Adiabatic choked pipe flow - Method of choice for conservative design. (c) Isothermal choked pipe flow (can ignore).

Source Models (Chp. 4)

5. Flashing Liquids Liquids stored under pressure above their normal boiling point temperature. Presents a particular hazard, because if pressure is suddenly released, e.g. by leaking into the atmosphere, the liquid will flash into the vapour state. For sudden and catastrophic rupture, (a) instantaneous flashing occurs. Calculate the flash fraction, fv. For slower release through a hole or a pipe, either of the following may occur: (b) liquid discharge followed by external flashing, (c) equilibrium flashing, or (d) two-phase choked flow.

Source Models (Chp. 4)

For fast release, e.g. complete rupture of storage vessel, (a) Instantaneous Flashing Use eqn 4-86 or 4-90 to calculate fv, and hence mass of vapour discharged. For slower releases: If fluid path length is < 10 cm, e.g. hole in a thin-walled vessel, (b) Liquid Discharge followed by External Flashing Use eqn 4-7 for Qm, then multiply by fv. If fluid path length is > 10 cm, e.g. flow from a vessel through a pipe, , and Po > Psat, (c) Equilibrium Flashing Use eqn 4-91. and Po = Psat (d) Two-Phase Choked Flow Use eqn 4-104.

Learning Outcomes
From this lecture, you should be able to: 1. 1 Explain the term consequence modelling with respect to source terms, dispersion modelling and effect modelling. 2. Calculate the source term for different physical discharge scenarios. 3. 3 Understand the assumptions inherent in the source term calculations. 4. Attempt Problems 4-3, 4-14 and 4-33 from the Textbook.

Dispersion Modelling
5.1 Effect of Wind Wind speed profile:
gradient wind zg u=0

u = ug(z/zg)n .
Usually, 300m < zg < 750 m 0.12 < n < 0.5 5.2 Atmospheric Conditions 1. 2. 3. 4. Theoretical adiabatic lapse rate (0.01 ( 0 01 K/m) Super-adiabatic unstable condition Sub-adiabatic stable Inversion extremely stable

4 3 1


Dispersion Modelling
Two ideal models: puff instantaneous point source plume continuous point source 5.3 Dispersion of neutrally buoyant puffs and plumes

Hr z

x y

Dispersion Modelling
Diffusion equation:

c c 2c 2c 2c + u = Kx 2 + Ky 2 + Kz 2 t x x y z
Analytical solutions: eqns 5-10 to 5-36 Puff, Qm* (e.g. kg), C (x, y, z, t) Plume, Qm (e.g. kg/s), C (x, y, z) u (wind velocity) and Kx, Ky, Kz (eddy diffusivities) Problem: In general Kx,y,z are f(x, y, z, t, u, stability)

Dispersion Modelling
5.4 Pasquill-Gifford Model Atmospheric stability classes based on weather conditions and wind speed (Table 5-1) A, B C, D E, F unstable neutral stable

Replace Kx, Ky, Kz with dispersion coefficients, x = y, z (in metres) as a function of downwind distance x.

Dispersion Modelling
Puff Model 5-38 5-54 5 54 5-57 Puff, release z = 0, fixed coordinates. Puff, Puff release z = H, moving coordinates. H coordinates Total integrated linear dose at ground level.
x = ut

Eqn 5-45 defines isopleths

See Ex 5-2

Plume Model 5-46 Plume, release z = 0; 5-49 Plume, release z = H e.g. Qm = 10 kg/s chlorine, Hr = 10 m, stability class D-3

Ground Level Centreline Concentration

x (m)
100 200 300

Ground Level Isopleths y

2.5 ppm 0.5 ppm

See Ex 5-1

Dispersion Coefficients () They describe (statistically) the distribution of concentration about the centre of the cloud (for puff) or centreline (plume)

x (or y)

e.g. for puff,

wind velocity, u
y x

Top View

position of cloud at time t = ut

circular isopleth

Dispersion Modelling
Notes: Dispersion coefficients are defined at the centre of the puff, i.e. use x = ut to calculate x (= y), z. Concentrations at (x, y, z) wrt centre of puff is a function of dispersion coefficients (eqn 5-45 defines the isopleths). P.G. model cannot predict near-field concentrations. P.G. model assumes neutrally-buoyant releases. P.G. model predicts time-averaged concentrations (see p. 194)

Dispersion Modelling
Notes: Dense Gas Dispersion Britter and McQuaid model (1988)
Correlation based on experimental data and dimensional analysis. C l ti b d i t ld t d di i l l i Unable to account for terrain, roughness, atmospheric conditions.

Toxic Effect Criteria (p. 200)

ERPG-1: ERPG-2: ERPG-3: limit of mild transient adverse health effects limit of irreversible or other serious health effects limit of life-threatening health effects

Guidelines for Selection of Process Incidents (Table 4-5)

Realistic release incidents. Worst-case incidents.

Learning Outcomes
From this lecture, you should: 1. Understand the concepts of dispersion modelling based on prevailing wind conditions and atmospheric stability stability. 2. Apply the Pasquill-Gifford Model to calculate dispersion of ideal puffs and plumes. 3. Know the assumptions and limitations of the P-G model.

Remember to attempt the following Problems from the Textbook to test your own understanding before the scheduled Problems Class: 5-7, 5-10, 5-11.