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SymphonyIRI
Drinks
Pulse
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For analytical purposes the data sourced from available retail databases has been consolidated to provide consistent results. However, for some countries it has not been possible to source data pertaining to certain categories. When this has occurred it has been documented in the Notes section found at the end of the report.
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In the Radar
The economic crisis in some of the southern European countries is influencing private consumption and dividing Europe into prospering Northern and declining Southern markets, not only for Drinks, but also Alcohol and the majority of other FMCG categories.
Wolfgang Kappler Director Client Solutions, Cold Beverages, SymphonyIRI Group Germany Contact: Wolfgang.Kappler@SymphonyIRI.com Tel : +49 (0) 211 / 361 19 - 193
2010 1,932,801
Germany
81.8
81.8
7.1
6.3
+1.2
+1.6
2,498,800
2,588,888
Italy Netherlands
60.3 16.6
60.3 16.6
8.6 4.5
8.3 4.2
+1.6 +1.4
+2.0 +0.9
1,548,816 591,477
1,588,893 614,324
46.0
46.0
20.1
20.7 7.6*
-2.6
+1.8
1,081,894
1,051,329
62.0
62.0
7.8
+3.3
+3.5
1,694,507
1,779,888
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Global Trends
Value sales and growth and decline in the last year
Value Sales in Millions ()
+6.3%
Total EU DE UK
+2.8%
+3.7%
FR IT ES NL
+1.5%
-0.3%
Negative Trend
-2.7%
1,805
FRANCE GERMANY
ITALY NETHERLANDS
4,000
1,384 556
2,000
914 1,585
1,772
03-Oct-10
0
03-Jan-10
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Europe
16,368
39.5%
Millions Euros
19.4%
2,114 845
2.0% 5.1%
14.4%
Millions
8,104
8,016 5,941
2,114
4.1 Soft Drinks 1.0 Mineral Water Coffee 1.8 -0.1 Juices, Squashes & Syrups Tea 2.9
Total Sales
% vs. YA
Europe includes: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and United Kingdom Source: SymphonyIRI Retail Databases; Period Ending 03 Apr, 11
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Europe
Coffee
Mineral Water
Tea
Cocoa
-5.4
Category Insights
The huge growth in the soft drinks market (648.8m) accounts for the bulk of the value sales change vs. 12 months ago. Where soft drinks are growing, it is mainly a result of an increasing high level of price promotions for the branded business, which do have a sustainable positive impact on volume growth. With soft drinks, as well as most of the other Drinks categories, the gains in value sales in the Northern countries are over-compensating for the shrinkage of the Southern Countries. Except of juices, squashes & syrups, as this category is slightly declining in Germany, its biggest market by far, as well. Gains of the coffee category - in most of the countries - are due to rising prices, for roasted coffee. Hence and due to a continuous growth of single portions and capsules, with prices far above category average, we have a disproportionately large value growth, compared to the development of volume sales. Mineral water is growing (+1.0%) below Drinks average values sales change rate of +2.3%. The reasons throughout the countries are multifarious, from consumers enhancing their use of tap water, across a demand shift onto low price private label and non-branded water, to a growing assortment of flavoured waters, providing a real alternative for consumers to the classic mineral waters.
Europe includes: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and United Kingdom Source: SymphonyIRI Retail Databases; Period Ending 03 Apr, 11
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France
2037
2,000
20.6%
Millions Euros
1,500
29.3%
1,000
500
337
191
Key trends
On this period, the total FMCG is growing up 2.5%. On the same time, the non alcoholic cold beverages is growing up 3%, and the breakfast product 2.7% Soft drinks is still remaining the first growth in % change. Coffee is still the only category decreasing. The primary reason for the recurrent declining in value sales of the Coffee category is the ongoing development of the Coffee Pod products => Pods Sales are now equivalent at 500M.
4,2 1,0 1,8 -1,6 Soft Drinks Mineral Water Juices, Squashes & Syrups Coffee
337
0,2
Tea
Total Sales
% vs. YA
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France
Tea
Cocoa
Coffee
Category Insights
All the subcategories in the Soft Drinks is increasing this time Cola and Plain Fruit Drinks drive the growth About Manufacturer on cold beverages: Coca Cola Company (with the brand Coca Cola) is the primary contributor, with a number of SKU increasing (+3 SKU). Nestl is the 2nd contributor : Waters (Vittel, Hpar & San Pellegrino) and Nesfluid participate. Promotion on the waters brands and the number of SKU, with Nesfluid launch, are the main reasons of the growth. Eckes is the main increase on the Fruit Juices market with Joker Only Red Bull is declining Green Tea is the only subcategories increasing, and both roasted coffee and instant coffee are declining About Manufacturer on hot beverages On tea market, Foods is compensate for the losses of Unilever On coffee market, Kraft, Sara Lee and the private label are decreasing
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Germany
5,280
5,000
Millions Euros
21.5% 34.1%
4,000
3,422
3,318 2,647
3,000
2,000
1,000
646 153
1.0%
4.2%
17.1%
5,280
Millions
3,422
3,318 2,647
5.7 2.8
Soft Drinks Coffee
646
5.2
Mineral Water
-0.2
Juices, Squashes & Syrups Tea
1.2
Total Sales
% vs. YA
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Germany
Soft Drinks
Mineral Water
Coffee
Tea
Cocoa
1.8
Category Insights
The Soft Drinks are continuing to grow as a result of an increasing high level of price promotions, which do have a sustainable positive impact on volume growth. Thereby the Coca-Cola, as well as the PepsiCo brands are driving the Cola, Lemonade and the Cola Mixes categories. However a large portion of their winnings derive from quite aggressive price promotions primarily in the German Discounter channels. After a longer period of de-listing of drinks in tin packaging, due to introduction of a tin deposit by German government, the retailers started to re-list tins. This is preparing the ground for a sustainable rise in Energy Drinks volume and value sales, since they are preponderantly offered in tins. Also Mineral Water value sales is primarily growing in the branded market. The growth is again driven by price promotions. But due to the fact, that the brands still are higher priced than Private Label are, the average category price is increasing, which led to a almost double value growth compared to the volume sales development. Gains of the Coffee category are due to a outstanding long and cold German winter, in addition with rising prices, by up to 20% especially for roasted coffee. Hence and due to a continuous growth of single portions and capsules, we have a disproportionately large value growth As losses of the Juices are focused on the Private Labels and are due to increase in prices following the cost increase for juice concentrate, whereas the branded business has benefitted by serving new market segments, particular mild juices and juices made of native fruits, as well as an increasing high level of price promotions, Juices volume sales are down, while the value sales remain almost constant.
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Italy
Category Value Sales and Share of Value in the Last Year
29.2%
2000 1800 1600 1400
1,803 1,739
Millions Euros
1,215 882
20.4% 30.3%
240 73
1.2% 4.0%
14.8%
1,803
1,739
1,215
Millions
882
240
-1.7
Soft Drinks
-4.6
Mineral Water
-0.6
Coffee
1.6 -4.6
Juices, Squashes & Syrups Tea
Total Sales
% vs. YA
11
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Italy
Tea
3.9
Cocoa
Coffee
Soft Drinks
Mineral Water
12
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Netherlands
Category Value Sales and Share of Value in the Last Year
1200
1,106
26.4% 46.1%
Millions Euros
1000 800
634
600
432
400 200
126
85
15
Key trends
While Cola remain the most important segment in the Softdrinks category, orange has and Ice Tea show a more significant growth in the last quarter. This is due to increase promotional volume; Energy Drinks are still by far the fastest growing segment within Softdrinks in value as well as in volume; Another important shift within Softdrinks is the decrease of volume within Still Drinks due to a fall back in promotional volume; Coffee shows a significant growth and this is entirely due to increase in base prices. In the latest quarter kg prices have increased by 15% for coffee;
1,106
Millions
634 432
3.2
5.1
126
1.0
Juices, Squashes & Syrups Tea
0.4
85
-5.9
Mineral Water
Soft Drinks
Coffee
Total Sales
% vs. YA
13
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Netherlands
Millions 40
Soft Drinks
-0.5
Cocoa
Category Insights
The most important contributors to the growth of Softdrinks is Cola, Orange and Ice Tea. Coca Cola is the main contributor in the Cola segment. However, Private Label shows a significant growth in volume due to increase promotional volumes but also growth of the base volume line. This is due to introduction of Private Label multipacks but also introduction of a Private Label basic line. This results in a high volume increase but a limited increase in value; The growth in Orange is almost entirely due to the re-launch of Capri Sonne. It is rebranded to Capri Sun and gained in distribution. But also the prices have been increased at the re-launch. Another contributor is Sisi which has increased promotional pressure significantly in Orange; In Ice Tea the major brand Lipton has increased promotional volumes but has also added new items like Ice Tea Zero and Ice Tea Superfruit. But also the existing range is increasing base sales. Roosvicee, a Heinz brand, is increasing it sales in Juices by changing the ingredients of their range and claiming light for a wide range of their product line, introduction of a new range with Fruit & Rozenbottel and increased promotional level has led to more sales for this major Brand; However, also Private Label and the main Brand within Juices, Appelsientje, have increased their sales due to increased promotional volumes; The growth in Coffee is entirely due to price increases. Volume sales are stable. Coffee beans still show significant growth due increased penetration of high tech coffee machines in-home. This is also the case for Capsules which are showing the same trend as coffee beans. Mineral water is losing value due to a shift to lower priced products like Private Labels and nobrands.
Source: SymphonyIRI Retail Databases; Period Ending 03 Apr, 11
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Spain
2,098
54.9%
Millions Euros
2000
20.2%
1500
1000
500
14.9%
0
110
13
2,098
Millions
110
Tea
8.9
Total Sales
% vs. YA
15
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Spain
Millions
30
-35.0
Coffee
Cocoa
Tea
Mineral Water
Soft Drinks
Category Insights
Sales in Cola Cero and Normal Tonic have gone up steadily in soft drinks. PepsiCo and Red Bull manufacturer sales rose slightly the last quarter ( +5.1% and 3.5 %) driven by coke (Pepsi) and energetic drinks (Red Bull). Sales in Minute Maid went down sharply (-27.4%). The mineral water market is suffering a fall in sales because the Spanish government are improving water public infrastructure. Private Label Mineral Water had a sales increased of 1.6%. Special water like Mineral Flavoured Water with gas has been a decrease of -25%. For coffee, Cocoa and Tea the positive trend is due to presence in Supermarket (over to 1001 m2) Coffee volume prices increased from 8,01 to 8,60.
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United Kingdom
59.5%
Millions Euros
4,045
4000 3500
13.6%
9.6% 7.9%
1000 500
925
655 536
492
151
2.2% 7.2%
4,045
Millions
925
8.3 2.1
Soft Drinks Coffee
655
6.0
Tea
536
2.8
Juices, Squashes & Syrups
492
3.7
Mineral Water
Heavy promotional activities are driving up purchase for Coffee and Tea. Sales value in both segments is also up due to price increases. Within Coffee, both ground and instant have seen their volume grow but only ground coffee is driving sales value up.
Total Sales
% vs. YA
17
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United Kingdom
Millions
400
0.0
Soft Drinks
Tea
Coffee
Category Insights In soft drinks value growth has accelerated on last quarter: price inflation for soft drinks is ahead of the market. Shoppers are not only paying a higher average price per litre but they were buying more often and this seemed to be driven by dealing, particularly in the Functional energy and crushes sectors. In soft drinks promotion levels continue to increase and levels of volume sold on deal were up to 70%. The levels of promotions are supporting volume growth, and increasingly branded products have a higher share of that in store noise. In soft drinks Britivic growth has been supported by NPD: King Tango and Mountain Dew have done well. However 67% of volume growth has come from Pepsi cola, most of it from deals on 8CT Cans and the 2L plastic bottle. Teas performance driven by tea bags and supported by tea pods growth. Coffee driven by Super premium brands and within instant coffee, the creation of a new segment, Microgrind, has generated interest in the category.
18
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Final Notes
Notes on Category Definitions for Countries Due to the diverse products found in individual countries across this market it was necessary to consolidate the available data into the categories in this report. In some cases it wasnt always possible to align products across all 6 countries hence the need to highlight any anomalies in the report. Those exceptions are listed below: Soft Drinks The UK data in this report does not contain Iced Tea and other Tea Based Beverages and the other countries do not Juices, Squashes & Syrups The Germany data in this report includes Smoothies and Refrigerated Fruit Juice and the other countries do not Mineral Water The France data in this report includes Flavored Mineral Water whereas the other countries do not The Italy data in this report includes Flavored Sports Drinks whereas the other countries do not
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Resources
To gain insight into opportunities across specific categories, segments, channels or retailers, contact your SymphonyIRI client service representative regarding custom analyses leveraging the following resources: InfoScan Census is a syndicated retail tracking service that enables manufacturers and retailers to acquire industry insights used to make better business decisions. InfoScan Census utilizes the data that SymphonyIRI Group collects from grocery, drug, and mass merchandise retailers to provide the most comprehensive and accurate syndicated data offering in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector. With access to accurate, granular detail by category, geography, measure, and time period, clients have the tools needed to develop marketing and sales strategies based on product performance, distribution, and promotion responsiveness. All data about frozen foods are coming from InfoScan Census. SymphonyIRI Consulting provide strategic insights and advice leveraging a variety of data sources, predictive analytics, enabling technologies, and business analyses to help CPG manufacturers and retailers address significant sales and marketing issues effectively.
About SymphonyIRI Group SymphonyIRI group, formerly named Information Resources, Inc. (IRI), is the global leader in innovative solutions and services for driving revenue and profit growth in CPG, retail and healthcare companies. SymphonyIRI offers two families of solutions: core IRI solutions for market measurement and symphony advantage solutions for enabling new growth opportunities in marketing, sales, shopper marketing and category management. SymphonyIRI solutions uniquely combine content, analytics and technology to deliver maximum impact. SymphonyIRI helps companies create, plan and execute forward-looking, shopper-centric strategies across every level of the organization. For more information, visit www.SymphonyIRI.eu
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