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Meeting with Prime Minister Phan Van Khai and his delegation
Professor Michael E. Porter Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness Harvard Business School Cambridge, Massachusetts June 24, 2005
This presentation draws on Michael Porter, Klaus Schwab: The Global Competitiveness Report 2004-2005, Oxford University Press, 2004 and other sources. For further information on the Report and on the Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness see www.isc.hbs.edu
National competitiveness: essential concepts Competitive assessment of Vietnam Key issues for Vietnamese policy Profile of the Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness
What is Competitiveness?
Competitiveness is determined by the productivity (value per unit of input) with which a nation, region, or cluster uses its human, capital, and natural resources. Productivity sets a nations or regions standard of living (wages, returns on capital, returns on natural resources) Productivity depends both on the value of products and services (e.g. uniqueness, quality) as well as the efficiency with which they are produced. It is not what industries a nation or region competes in that matters for prosperity, but how firms compete in those industries Productivity in a nation or region is a reflection of what both domestic and foreign firms choose to do in that location. The location of ownership is secondary for national prosperity. The productivity of local industries is of fundamental importance to competitiveness, not just that of traded industries Devaluation and revaluation do not make a country more or less competitive
Nations or regions compete in offering the most productive environment for business The public and private sectors should play different but interrelated roles in creating a productive economy
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Copyright 2005 Professor Michael E. Porter
Determinants of Competitiveness
Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Context Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Context
A sound macroeconomic, political, legal, and social context creates the potential for competitiveness, but is not sufficient Only firms can create wealth, not government
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Successful economic development is a process of successive economic upgrading, in which the business environment in a nation evolves to support and encourage increasingly sophisticated ways of competing
200506 GCR Vietnam KC 2005.06.24.ppt
Local retail, Local retail, health care, and health care, and other services other services
Food Food Suppliers Suppliers Restaurants Restaurants Property Property Services Services Hotels Hotels
Souvenirs, Souvenirs, Duty Free Duty Free Banks, Banks, Foreign Foreign Exchange Exchange
Sources: HBS student team research (2003) - Peter Tynan, Chai McConnell, Alexandra West, Jean Hayden
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Influences on Competitiveness
Multiple Geographic Levels
World Economy
ASEAN
Indochina
Nations
Vietnam
States, Provinces
Cities
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Seattle-BellevueSeattle-BellevueEverett, WA Everett, WA Aerospace Vehicles Aerospace Vehicles and Defense and Defense Fishing and Fishing Fishing and Fishing Products Products Analytical Instruments Analytical Instruments
Wichita, KS Wichita, KS Aerospace Vehicles and Aerospace Vehicles and Defense Defense Heavy Machinery Heavy Machinery Oil and Gas Oil and Gas
Boston Boston Analytical Instruments Analytical Instruments Education and Knowledge Creation Education and Knowledge Creation Communications Equipment Communications Equipment
San FranciscoSan FranciscoOakland-San Jose Oakland-San Jose Bay Area Bay Area Communications Communications Equipment Equipment Agricultural Agricultural Products Products Information Information Technology Technology
Raleigh-Durham, NC Raleigh-Durham, NC Communications Equipment Communications Equipment Information Technology Information Technology Education and Education and Knowledge Creation Knowledge Creation
Los Angeles Area Los Angeles Area Apparel Apparel Building Fixtures, Building Fixtures, Equipment and Equipment and Services Services Entertainment Entertainment
San Diego San Diego Leather and Sporting Goods Leather and Sporting Goods Power Generation Power Generation Education and Knowledge Education and Knowledge Creation Creation
Houston Houston Heavy Construction Services Heavy Construction Services Oil and Gas Oil and Gas Aerospace Vehicles and Defense Aerospace Vehicles and Defense
Atlanta, GA Atlanta, GA Construction Materials Construction Materials Transportation and Logistics Transportation and Logistics Business Services Business Services
Note: Clusters listed are the three highest ranking clusters in terms of share of national employment Source: Cluster Mapping Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School
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Input Cost Macro, political, and legal stability Efficient basic infrastructure Lowering the regulatory costs of doing business
Efficiency Local competition Market openness Incentives and rules encouraging productivity Cluster development
Cluster upgrading
Source: Porter, Michael E., The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Macmillan Press, 1990
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Government drives economic Government drives economic development through policy development through policy decisions and incentives decisions and incentives
Economic development is a Economic development is a collaborative process involving collaborative process involving government at multiple levels, government at multiple levels, companies, teaching and companies, teaching and research institutions, and research institutions, and institutions for collaboration institutions for collaboration
Competitiveness must become a bottoms-up process in which citizens take responsibility Every community and cluster can take steps to enhance competitiveness
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Vietnamese Competitiveness
Accomplishments
Strong GDP growth record; economic growth has been resilient during the Asian Crisis and SARS The poverty rate has fallen from 58% to 29% from 1992 to 2002 Solid labor productivity growth Strong export growth Strong FDI inflows
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Vietnamese Competitiveness
Issues
Prosperity remains at a low level Labor productivity remains very low Vietnams business environment remains very weak Fall in the GCR business competitiveness ranking in 2004 Key weaknesses include corruption, physical infrastructure, skill base, financial markets, technology, cluster depth and the nature of competitive advantages
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20%
CHINA
15%
MYANMAR VIETNAM CAMBODIA LAOS INDIA BANGLADESH MALAYSIA THAILAND PHILIPPINES PAKISTAN HONG KONG NEW ZEALAND SRI LANKA SINGAPORE INDONESIA TAIWAN JAPAN PAPUA NEW GUINEA
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
97 99 02 20 95 96 93 94 90 91 92 98 00 01 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 03
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Japan
25,000
Singapore
20,000
Slovenia S Korea
15,000
Slovak Republic
10,000
5,000
Vietnam
Myanmar
5% 6% 7%
China
Cambodia
4%
8%
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60,000
50,000
GDP per employee (PPP adjusted) in US-$, 2003
40,000
S Korea
30,000
20,000
10,000
Thailand India
Vietnam
Bangladesh
10% 20% 30%
0 -20%
Source: EIU (2004)
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-10%
Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of real GDP per employee, 1998-2003
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Copyright 2005 Professor Michael E. Porter
0.30%
0.25%
0.15%
0.10%
0.05%
0.00% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: WTO (2005)
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70%
60%
Vietnam
50% 40%
China Thailand Poland 20% Philippines Russia Taiwan 10% S Korea India Japan 0%
0% 10% 30%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
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35,000
Asian countries
30,000
2003 GDP per Capita 25,000 (Purchasing Power Adjusted) Italy
20,000
15,000
10,000
Bosnia Paraguay Bolivia
Chile Mexico Brazil Turkey Tunisia Jamaica China Jordan Indonesia India
Malaysia
5,000
Vietnam
Malawi
Ethiopia
Ghana Kenya
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Administrative burden for startups Reliability of police services Availability of scientists and engineers Judicial independence Local equity market access Telephone/fax infrastructure quality Efficiency of legal framework Venture capital availability Quality of public schools Quality of math and science education Railroad infrastructure development
35 36 40 53 54 55 55 57 58 58 61
Quality of management schools Overall infrastructure quality Quality of scientific research institutions Cell phones per 100 people (2003) Extent of bureaucratic red tape Quality of the educational system Port infrastructure quality Quality of electricity supply
91 84 84 84 83 79 77 77
Note: Rank versus 93 countries; overall, Vietnam ranks 73rd in Business Competitiveness and 83rd in 2003 PPP adjusted GDP per capita Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2004-2005
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Corruption
Asian countries
Vietnam
80
-15
-10
-5
10
15
20
Communication Infrastructure
Vietnams Relative Position
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Phonelines Cell phones Internet users
Ho ng
Context for Context for Firm Strategy Firm Strategy and Rivalry and Rivalry
Cooperation in labor-employer relations Decentralization of corporate activity Extent of locally based competitors
33 39 40
Hidden trade barrier liberalization Prevalence of mergers and acquisitions Foreign ownership restrictions Effectiveness of anti-trust policy Intellectual property protection Regulation of securities exchanges
91 88 86 84 84 75 69 66
Centralization of economic policy-making 41 Favoritism in decisions of government officials Protection of minority shareholders interests Tariff liberalization Efficacy of corporate boards 50 52 53 61
Note: Rank versus 93 countries; overall, Vietnam ranks 73rd in Business Competitiveness and 83rd in 2003 PPP adjusted GDP per capita Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2004-2005
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Context for Context for Firm Strategy Firm Strategy and Rivalry and Rivalry
Taxation
Selected Asian Countries
Positive
Negative
R di a C hi na Ta iw an ea m a s es h or e Ph ili pp in e al ay si Th ai la n SA na gl ad Vi et Ja p
Copyright 2005 Professor Michael E. Porter
on g
Si ng
H on
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Ba n
Ko r
ap
In
an
Context for Context for Firm Strategy Firm Strategy and Rivalry and Rivalry
Stringency of Labor Market Regulation*, (0-100)
70 Restrictive 60 50
OECD
40
30
20
Liberal 10
0
Si ng ap or e M al ay H on sia g Ko ng Ja pa n Ko Ind ia re a, R ep C . am bo di a La os Vi et na m In do ne si a Ta iw Ph a ilip n pi ne Th s ai la nd
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Copyright 2005 Professor Michael E. Porter
Note: Average of values for hiring, firing, and employment condition regulations Source: World Bank (2005)
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C hi Ba na ng la de sh
Demand Conditions
Vietnams Relative Position
Government procurement of advanced technology products Sophistication of local buyers' products and processes Buyer sophistication
32 51 60
Stringency of environmental regulations Laws relating to ICT Presence of demanding regulatory standards
89 85 79
Note: Rank versus 93 countries; overall, Vietnam ranks 73rd in Business Competitiveness and 83rd in 2003 PPP adjusted GDP per capita Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2004-2005
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63
State of cluster development Local availability of specialized research and training services
80 75
Local availability of components and parts 69 Extent of collaboration among clusters Local supplier quantity 68 67
Note: Rank versus 93 countries; overall, Vietnam ranks 73rd in Business Competitiveness and 83rd in 2003 PPP adjusted GDP per capita Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2004-2005
200506 GCR Vietnam KC 2005.06.24.ppt
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7.00%
6.00%
World Export Share, 2002
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
Apparel
1.00%
Furniture
0.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% Change in Vietnam's World Export Share, 1997-2002
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3.00%
3.50%
Exports of = $500 million
4.00%
0.80%
0.60%
Sporting, Recreational and Childrens Goods Building Fixtures and Equipment
Agricultural Products
0.40%
0.20%
Textiles Plastics Motor Driven Products Construction Materials Communications Equipment Power Generation and Equipment
-0.05% 0.00% 0.05% 0.10% 0.15% Change in Vietnam's World Export Share, 1997-2002
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0.20%
0.25%
Exports of = $500 million
0.30%
Industry 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Crude petroleum oils Miscellaneous footwear with leather soles Crustaceans, mollusks, and aquatic invertebrates Other footwear, rubber plastics Coffee, coffee substitute Gym, training shoes and the like rubber or plastics soles Miscellaneous prepared or preserved fish, crustaceans and the like Mens or boys overcoats, outerwear and similar articles Rice, milled or semi-milled Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, waistcoats, knitted Fish, fresh, chilled, or frozen Other wooden furniture Other travel bags, sets Fruit, nuts excluding oil nuts Womens or girls overcoats, other coats Footwear, with textile uppers and rubber soles Natural rubber, balata and similar natural gums Mens or boys trousers, breeches and shorts Insulted wire, cable and conductors Womens or girls trousers, breeches and shorts Printed circuits Mens or boys shirts Coal, not agglomerated Convertible seats and parts Other garments, not knitted
Cluster Oil and Gas Products Footwear Fishing and Fishing Products Footwear Agricultural Products Footwear Fishing and Fishing Products Apparel Agricultural Products Apparel Fishing and Fishing Products Furniture Leather and Related Products Agricultural Products Apparel Footwear Plastics Apparel Communications Equipment Apparel Information Technology Apparel Coal and Briquettes Building Fixtures and Equipment Apparel
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26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
Industry Other sports shoes with leather uppers Spices Ornamental ceramic articles Bicycles and other cycles, non-motorized Brassieres, corsets, braces, suspenders, garters Baskets, brooms, brushes, paint rollers and mops Children's toys Womens or girls suits, dresses, skirts, trousers, knitted Other sports shoes with rubber, plastics uppers and soles Mens or boys shirts, knitted Garments made of felt, miscellaneous nonwoven or coated fabrics Parts for telecommunication equipment Fans, cooker hoods with fan Oxygen-function amino-compounds T-shirts, other vests, knitted Household linens Electric motors<=37.5w Gold, silver jewelry or ware Headgear, knitted or made up from fabrics Vegetables Wood in chips or particles Trunks, suit-cases, executive-case and similar containers Miscellaneous articles of ceramic materials Womens or girls underwear, nightwear, knitted Bedroom furniture of wood
Cluster Footwear Agricultural Products Furniture Sporting, Recreational and Children's Goods Apparel Building Fixtures and Equipment Sporting, Recreational and Children's Goods Apparel Footwear Apparel Apparel Communications Equipment Motor Driven Products Chemical Products Apparel Textiles Motor Driven Products Jewelry, Precious Metals and Collectibles Apparel Agricultural Products Forest Products Leather and Related Products Building Fixtures and Equipment Apparel Furniture
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31
Competition
32
33
Course Microeconomics of Competitiveness Competitiveness data on ISC web site Connection to ISC partners in the region, especially the new Asian Institute for Competitiveness in Singapore
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